The Confidential

ACC Teaching Dance Lessons?

Today the 2015 NCAA Tournament will begin and college basketball fans from east to west will nestle into their comfortable recliners or arena seats to watch teams battle out for a chance to advance.  In the most generic fashion possible, I’m going to give a quick rundown on all six of the ACC first round matchups and then throw in a few thoughts of my own which carry little weight if any…….

MIDWEST REGION   Notre Dame (3)  vs   Northeastern  (14)

I’ll be the first to admit that I know next to nothing about Northeastern. In fact, the ONLY thing I know about Northeastern is that it’s campus is in Boston and the late Reggie Lewis balled there.  What I do know, however, is that the Irish are coming off their first ever ACC Tournament title and are playing as well as anyone in the country right now, aside from Kentucky. I see no reason that Notre Dame won’t continue their winning ways and advance into the 2nd round rather easily.  Look for Northeastern’s Scott Eatherton to “get his” but look for Jerian Grant and his crew of Connaughton and Jackson to “get more” My pick:  Notre Dame ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ WEST REGION  North Carolina (4)  vs    Harvard (13)

If Harvard is as smart as I think their players probably are then they will slow this one down to a turtle pace and hope for the best. North Carolina has all the tools to make a run in this tournament and if Marcus Paige gets going then anything can happen in favor of the ‘Heels. Wesley Saunders is a fine player for Harvard, so look for him. But, the interior play of Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks & Co. will be too much for the John Harvards (yes, that is their actual mascot name). My pick: North Carolina ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ EAST REGION  NC State (8)  vs    LSU (9)

Wow, this game as much as any other in the field of 64 has given me fits as to who I should pick. In fact, I have almost convinced myself that the Wolfpack will prevail due, if nothing else, to my disdain for the SEC Conference. With that said, I do like LSU’s talent, especially Jarell Martin. But, after watching their meltdown in the SEC Tournament that resulted in a loss to lowly Auburn I am inclined to go with NC State here. Another factor is that Jordan Mickey is hampered by a nagging shoulder injury that will likely affect his pay. On the other side, I am a big fan of Cat Barber and Trevor Lacey / Ralston Turner are a terrific duo in terms of scoring.  Granted, I’m not sure Mark Gottfried can coach his way out of a paper sack…..but neither can LSU’s Johnny Jones. My pick: NC State (in a close one)  Virginia (2)  vs    Belmont (15)

Virginia has been one of the top tier teams in the country all year. And despite a one point loss at Louisville and an early exit from the ACC Tournament, I still believe they could make a run at the Final Four. But before doing that, I am confident that the Cavaliers will handle their business w/out much of a challenge. And even if UVA were the underdog here I would still probably pencil them in due to me still being a little miffed that Belmont bounced Murray State in the OVC title game, thus ending their NCAA Tournament hopes. My pick: Virginia   Louisville (4)  vs    University of Cal-Irvine (13)

Aside from NC State, I believe Louisville (my alma mater) is the most susceptible to a first round loss. With that said, this same Louisville team could very well shock people and make a run. The season for UofL has been a Jeckyl and Hyde movie. But if the Cards’ big 3 in Harrell, Rozier & Blackshear show up and play up to their potential then UofL should advance into the second round. I know very little about the Anteaters other than the fact that they have a 7-6 center  Mamadou Ndiaye and that alone should be worth the price of admission.  In the end, Rick Pitino is too good preparing his teams in March and that will hold true again on Friday afternoon (I hope) My pick: Louisville ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ SOUTH REGION  Duke (1)  vs   Robert Morris (16)

The Blue Devils won’t even need to perform a single floor slap on Friday to take care of their first round opponent. No offense at all to Robert Morris, but I just don’t see enough talent on their roster to control the likes of Jahlil Okafor. This one could be decided before halftime and should allow viewers to click away and catch other games going on. My pick: Duke So, there you have my first round picks. And in hindsight I am certain I have cursed the ACC by picking them to go 6-0 which based on odds alone is not likely to happen – but that’s why they play the games right?  Enjoy the games everyone, drink responsibly…..cheer like an idiot.

The 5 Keys To Success

Welp, March Madness is upon us folks! Welcome to the one week out of the calendar year when employees mysteriously catch a stomach bug causing them to miss the last two days of the regular work week. Brackets are filled out with great care, pools are created, money is wagered, egos are adjusted and most importantly 68 teams from around the country  take the court in what I would consider the funnest and most exhilarating three weeks in all of sports.

So what will the tournament look like for this Louisville squad? If someone had asked me that before Sunday evening I may have replied with “probably short-lived”. BUT, after watching the Selection Show on Sunday evening I quickly went from…..

to………….

First and foremost, the Cards landed a four seed – something many of the “experts” didn’t think would happen after their early exit from the ACC Conference Tournament and the looming absence of Chris Jones. Second, the Cards landed in the East Region which features the weakest of the four #1 seeds in Villanova and a 2 seed that the Cards are very familiar with (Virginia). Third, UofL was shipped to the west coast. Why is that a good thing you ask? It’s a + in my opinion because this particular Louisville squad seems to play better away from home and on the road. Yes, it sucks for the fans but take care of business in the first two rounds and UofL will find itself much closer to home. Speaking of taking care of business, I would quickly like to break down the 5 things Louisville must do to be successful in this tournament, and by successful I mean making a run at another Final Four slot. So, here goes……..

Louisville’s Big 3 (Rozier/Trez/Blackshear) must play up to their capabilities. They did just that very thing against UNC but the futile effort from the surrounding cast hampered them from getting over the top – but I will touch on that in just a minute. Hell, if just Montrezl and Terry have big games it increases the Cards’ chances of success dramatically…..at least in the early rounds. Rick Pitino has been saying for weeks that Wayne Blackshear would have a break out March in tournament play – he might be right after his effort in Greensboro last week.

Louisville must make their free throws. People get tired of hearing it, but missing free throws will get you beat over and over in post season play. Now, guys like Mathiang and Onuaku aren’t going to magically start hitting at an 80% clip overnight, I get it. But again the “Big 3” must focus and be at their best and if players like Anton Gill or Quentin Snider get to the stripe, you’ve gotta make ’em. The Cards can ill afford to shoot their season average from the line.

Avoid the infamous scoring droughts. If playing for 10 minutes without a field goal during games in the regular season was a measure of success, this Louisville team might very well have been a 1 seed somewhere. In all seriousness, the Cards CANNOT afford long scoring droughts. It would add too much pressure to the team’s defense and could create a hole too deep to dig out of.  The Cards simply don’t have the overall firepower to make up points in a hurry. Luke Hancock ain’t walking through that door.

Stay out of foul trouble, ESPECIALLY Montrezl Harrell. Make no mistake, Louisville is a different team when Harrell is not on the floor. And yes, I completely understand how vital Terry Rozier’s offensive output is to this team. But Harrell is the gas (Super Unleaded) to this team’s engine. He’s a physical presence, a rebounding machine and someone who allows others to get open via the low post double team. He dunks every now and then too. As Trez goes, The Ville goes.

Get bench support. This team can possibly find a way to win a game or two in the early rounds by living off it’s studs. But as the Dance advances, bench contributions will not be optional. They will be mandatory. Snider must make the occasional jumper, Mathiang must not allow guards to dribble into his chest and score at the rim, Onuaku must provide something on offense, and David Levitch must get minutes (Louisville normally wins win he does). The best Louisville teams of the past ALL had a crucial bench players that made a huge difference.

So, there you have the 5 keys to success for the Cards and even though there will be others, the aforementioned will undoubtedly be crucial. The regular season that was the 2014-15 Louisville Cardinals was a true roller coaster ride. Many fans, myself included, hope this week and potentially beyond bring about more ups than downs. My next blog will probably focus on the results of the upcoming Cal-Irvine game and how my bracket after just the first round games will look like…….

As always, L’s up and GO CARDS

#BeatCalIrvine

Lights, camera, action…CUT!

If yesterday’s quarterfinal matchup against North Carolina in Louisville’s first ever ACC Tournament was scored primarily on impressive dunks by Montrezl Harrell, then Louisville would be preparing to play a revenge seeking Virginia team in tonight’s semifinals. Better yet, if conference tournament games could be shortened to only one half of play, the Cards survive and advance. Well, unfortunately, the obvious truth is that in order to win a team must piece together 40 minutes of basketball good enough to win out on the scoreboard.

Louisville 60   North Carolina 70

After playing a very solid 20 minutes of basketball against the Tar Heels, the poison in the water that has constricted UofL’s success all season reared it’s ugly head again – perimeter shooting.  The Cards had looked to be getting on track a few weeks ago when they traveled to Tallahassee and shot lights out in an easy win over Florida State.  But perhaps that outing was a fluke, because yesterday’s second half shooting display was bad enough to go blind from viewing. It had to remind UofL fans of two games in particular from earlier in the year: Kentucky & Duke.

Make no mistake, the Cards did have their chances yesterday.  The play of Louisville’s “Big 3” being Harrell, Rozier & Blackshear was overall superb.  The rest of the squad?  Not so much.  Nevertheless, UofL managed to take a 5 point lead into halftime where Roy Williams evidently dropped enough “dadgums” to put UNC over the hump.  The play of Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige and the depth of UNC’s bench proved to be too much and the Cards were sent packing to await their NCAA seeding announcement on Sunday.

As has been discussed a million times this season, Louisville’s production from the 5 spot was virtually non-existent yet again on Thursday.  Outside of some active play early in the first half from Mangok Mathiang, the stat sheet for Louisville’s centers, as Rick Pitino so eloquently described, was filled with doughnuts. An alarming statistic that tells the story would be as follows…..

Louisville gets 9.4% of it’s total team points from it’s centers which ranks them 350th in the nation out of 351 teams (only Florida A & M is more porous)

Pitino has stated that he plans to make a change at the 5 spot before play begins in the Big Dance next week.  Problem is, his options are extremely limited.  The popular contention is to give more minutes to 7-footer Anas Mahmoud.  Mahmoud has shown flashes of scoring and proficient passing at times this season, but his inability to body up other post players due to his skinny frame has been an ongoing  issue. Mathiang has the most overall experience but his play has been at best inconsistent.  Onuaku, the current starter, almost never looks to score and does have a tendency of getting beat on defense – even in a 2-3 matchup zone. Whatever final decision Coach Pitino decides I am confident in saying that UofL fans will want it to be someone who will play hard but also be aggressive on the offensive end.

As a side note, I wanted to comment on the location of the ACC Tournament.  First off, it’s a great stage for college basketball.  But the location definitely favors the state (NC) based teams, specifically North Carolina and Duke. As a fan of both Louisville and college basketball in general, I like seeing teams battle it out in post season play on a neutral floor.  If one team’s fan base travels better to create an advantage then so be it.  But count me in the group that is very happy to know that the tournament will be moved to Brooklyn in The Barclay Center in 2017 – which actually might then give Syracuse an added advantage and shoot my theory all to hell!

I’m looking forward to watching the ACC semi-finals later this evening.  Although the loss to UNC still stings, it’s an encouraging feeling knowing that your team’s conference features such quality squads.  I’m going out on a limb and picking Virginia and Duke to advance to the finals.  As for the Sunday Selection portion of the weekend, I’m guessing that Louisville lands either a low 4 or high 5 seed. Time will tell, don’t forget to print your bracket(s)!

Mango Madness!

Pretend for just a few minutes that you are Rick Pitino.  You have nine seconds left in your season’s last home game – Senior Night to boot.  Your team has played it’s best collective 39+ minutes of the season and is on the brink of knocking off the 2nd ranked team in the country and regular season ACC Champs in the Virginia Cavaliers.  An ear deafening crowd of 23K red clad UofL fans is going berserk.  So, the pressure indirectly now lies on you as the Hall of Fame head coach to make the right call. What are you as the acting head coach going to draw up?  A predictable yet potentially successful entry pass to Montrezl Harrell?  A double stagger screen for Wayne Blackshear?  Or, spread the floor for Terry Rozier to get to the rack and draw a foul or get the “and one”? Answer: none of the above (of course) In reality, I have no idea what exact play Pitino scripted but I have no doubt that every Card fan from here to China was hoping and praying that Mangok Mathiang, who had made 1 of his last 16 FG attempts before Louisville inbounded the ball, would be the guy the Cards would lean on.  There were no other legitimate options right? Shamefully, I admit to internally cursing out loud as soon as the ball left Mangok Mathiang’s hands last night.  And I think other Louisville fans would be lying if they too didn’t feel immediate angst when he pulled the trigger.  But it matters not, as the bottom line was that Mango DID can the jumper, shot it like he meant it and had the onions to let it fly instead of caving in to the pressure packed moment.  As shocked as I was after the bucket, I think Virginia’s players were even more baffled.  It stands to reason that Mathiang was never even mentioned on UVA’s pre game scouting report.  So moving forward what does Mango’s big shot mean in the big picture?  For starters, it locked in Louisville as the #4 seed (over N. Carolina) in this week’s ACC Conference Tournament where they will have a double bye.  Secondly, the win serves as a very nice resume’ builder for the Cards in terms of their overall seeding in the NCAA Tournament in two weeks.  Last, but certainly not least it sent Wayne Blackshear and Montrezl Harrell (NBA bound junior) out winners on Senior Night. * Interesting factoid: Louisville is now 13-1 in the last 14 years on Senior Night The body of the  game against Virginia itself was one of the more entertaining ones I had watched all season.  The Cavaliers, even without starter Justin Anderson, showed America via ESPN just why they are ranked #2 in the country – they can flat out play some defense.  Additionally, Virginia isn’t too shabby on offense either but the recent defensive schemed tweak by Coach Pitino and the overall play of Montrezl Harrell and the timely big buckets late in the second half by Blackshear and Terry Rozier proved to be just enough to put Mango in the spotlight where he finished the deal.  As a side note, the play of freshman point guard Quentin Snider should not go overlooked as he was key for UofL in the first half canning 3 treys from behind the arc. Unable to attend the game personally, I was proud of the crowd at the Yum! Center.  They were loud and engaged from the opening tip, at times so thunderous they drowned out Dick Vitale which is never a bad thing.  Those in attendance Saturday were no doubt a big boost to the players and staff – a true home court advantage. Looking ahead, the Cards go back to practice and play the waiting game.  The bracket for this week’s conference tournament looks like this…… So upon further review, all UofL has to do to win their first inaugural ACC tourney is to hypothetically beat North Carolina followed potentially by two #1 NCAA Tournament seeds in Virginia and Duke.  Piece of cake right? I don’t know much, but I do know this:  Saturday’s big win over a terrific opponent does reinstall some confidence for Cards fans that this team can make some noise in The Big Dance.  Do they still have deficiencies?  Oh, yes.  But do they appear like a tighter knit group with better chemistry and energy that is having fun playing?  They definitely do.  Here’s to hoping that this group continues to pass the ball well, opening up more jump shots which, as of late, have been dropping. Greensboro, NC may not be Madison Square Garden, but it’s the next step for the Cards and one that will be exciting to watch.  Whoever said that Christmas was the most wonderful time of the year was obviously wrong – it’s March.  Enjoy the hoops folks!