The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

13 Nov 2014
1 Comment

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 11/12

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 11) and the Week that will be (Week 12) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Special thanks to the Confidential contributors for their comments and opinions.  Tell us what you think below.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR THE ACC IN WEEK 11?

David (FSU): The week went pretty much as planned, though Clemson did struggle a bit more than I expected early, the week was pretty much the status quo.

Len (Louisville): All the blowout victories. Not surprised by the wins but by the margins. The way Arizona State dominated Notre Dame.

Mike (NC State): The way Wake Forest hung with Clemson, trailing only 20-17 going into the fourth quarter.  This does not bode well for NC State; of their remaining two opponents, Wake looks to be the most winnable game.  Or is it?

John (UNC): Nothing too surprising this week, honestly. All the teams that won were expected to win, even though the margins may not have been exactly the same. At times, Clemson struggled against Wake Forest, and Florida State looked sloppy against Virginia, but no one will remember that years from now when they look back at each team’s win-loss record. Pretty standard. Oh wait, Notre Dame got destroyed by Arizona State, completely ending the Fighting Irish’s chance at the College Football Playoff. Not entirely surprising given the way they’ve played against their questionable schedule, but fantastic for the ACC’s chances at having them join all-in at some point in the future.

Brian (FSU):  Wake Forest putting up 20 points on Clemson’s defense.  I could not believe Wake’s anemic offense was able to score on Clemson.  On a side note I am surprised that OSU blew out Michigan State… you know the same OSU team that lost to the team currently in last place in the Coastal.  Of course if you watch ESPN the OSU hype machine is spinning that OSU is improving while asking us to ignore the VT loss.  Here is the thing, if you praise OSU you cannot do so without praising the ACC.  If one of the worst ACC teams can handily beat the best Big 10 team at their house, what does that say about the ACC?  You cannot brush off that loss for OSU when all they have played since the loss are other Big 10 teams and High School level competition, and the best Big 10 team should be able to handle the worst of any conference, even with a new QB.  Everyone has called JT Barrett one of the bright spots for OSU this year… well you cannot ignore what one of the worst ACC teams did to that QB in September. Sorry all BIG 10 homers, fact is the Hokies beat your best team.

Anthony (Syracuse): By far… it was Clemson allowing 20 points to Wake Forest. A close second was Notre Dame laying an egg against Arizona State.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE/DISAPPOINTMENT FOR YOUR SCHOOL IN WEEK 11?

David (FSU): I was surprised at not seeing Mario Pender & some others play either at all or very sparingly in the second half. FSU seemed to pack it in once they had a 2 score lead, appearing to just desire escaping with a W and as much rest as possible for key players still hampered by injury. 

Len (Louisville): I was surprised by how bad Boston College special teams were. I was disappointed in Dyers performance, I was expecting him to continue his high level of play. I was pleased that they weren’t caught looking ahead to Notre Dame. The 38-19 final score was surprising as well, it’s a solid road victory.

Mike (NC State): Zero momentum carried over from the Syracuse game and the Pack was pummeled.  Not that the Tech game looked too promising, but 56-23?  Really?

John (UNC):  North Carolina was off last week, so thankfully, we didn’t lose. The Tar Heels continued to be in the news though, as former player Michael McAdoo (no relation to former basketball player James Michael McAdoo) sued the school, claiming that the University ‘failed to provide him with a quality education.’ While that may be true on some level due to his involvement in the African American Studies Department’s paper classes, this is a guy who got kicked out of school for plagiarism and academic fraud that he committed, not someone else. While I agree that it’s the University’s responsibility to provide a quality education, I am a firm believer in personal responsibility. The blame falls solely on McAdoo for going along with the paper class system instead of waiting to speak out when it was more convenient for him. Much like fellow whistle blower Rashad McCants, McAdoo’s professional career has been a complete bust, in part because of his bad attitude.

Brian (FSU):   I was surprised and disappointed that the UM game is currently sitting at -1.5 FSU.  Yes, UM is a rival…. Yes, statistically they have better numbers… Yes, they have played better offenses, and their D is top 11… Yes, FSU has not looked like last year… I do not care!  Fact is FSU should be more of favorite than they are, and certainly not an underdog (trending that way).   FSU has actually faced far better run defenses and defenses that are far more aggressive than UM.  UM has actually played some of the worst run defenses, have Duke Johnson, and they are still not a top 30 team in rushing.  In two of the games they lost this year they played good run defenses (the only 2 all year ), and could not break a 100 yards rushing.  Fact is, if you stop UM’s ground attack they are in trouble.  Would you believe me if I told you with all the injuries and all the criticism that FSU has the third best run defense UM will have faced all year, sitting at 35? Well they are, and are coming in healthier in the front line than they have been all year.  Remember, FSU had 2 total linebackers going up against Louisville… that will not be the case against UM.  That being said… UM will likely shock FSU… I always assume the worst.

Anthony (Syracuse): Syracuse keeps losing players and keeps performing at the same level.  For all the criticism lofted at Scott Shafer (e.g. here), he has kept this team together despite the losses.  Syracuse may not have talent, but it certainly has heart.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 12 FOR YOUR SCHOOL?

David (FSU): I’m most looking forward to seeing how the run game works itself out on both sides of the ball. Getting Pender back should help FSU, and supposedly Cook will be able to play as well. Can the team finally have a dominate rushing game that we expected to see at the start of the year? As for MIA, they’ve already proven they can run the ball as well as anyone in the ACC not named GT. Will the FSU DL have gap composure and integrity? Exactly how healthy are Mario Edwards & Eddie Goldman, their play will be vital to FSU’s chances for success.

Len (Louisville): The Cards are on a bye week so I’m looking forward to them getting healthy again. Lorenzo Mauldin missed the game against BC due to a shoulder injury, that injury has been nagging him all season. Golson is struggling with turnovers and Holliman added 3 ints to his season total, giving him 13 to lead the nation, so I am looking forward to our trip to South Bend in two weeks. The Cards defense should be able to pressure Golson much like Arizona St did which should give the Cards the advantage.

Mike (NC State): The Wolfpack must focus and beat Wake to ensure bowl eligibility.  I have no confidence that they can go into Chapel Hill and beat the Heels in Week 14, especially if the bowl issue isn’t yet nailed down.

John (UNC):  It’s Homecoming, so I’m looking for a win against Pittsburgh. If we can’t pull it off against the Panthers, our shot at bowl eligibility decreases significantly since a win at Duke can’t be guaranteed, or even remotely expected, at this point. The Tar Heels need to take care of business against the Panthers in order to set up a crucial home game against rival NC State the final week of the season. Something to watch- If NC State loses at home against Wake Forest this Saturday (highly unlikely, but possible), the stakes of the Tar Heels’ end of the month meeting with the Wolfpack become even higher. NC State is only 5-5 with two games remaining.

Brian (FSU):  Not much, since I somehow expect to lose. I would say, with our great kicker it would not be due to a wide right field goal… but then he shanked one against Louisville.

Anthony (Syracuse): Rest and healing.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 12 FOR THE ACC?

David (FSU):I’m actually going to take the Clemson v GT game here, the GT offense vs Clemson D should be a great matchup to watch, and both teams still have plenty on the line this year.

Len (Louisville): If FSU can remain unbeaten after traveling to Miami. Also the Clemson and GT game. You have two Coastal teams, Miami and GT, playing at their best right now hosting the two top dogs from the Atlantic. Pop open a cold one, grab your favorite snack and enjoy the games.

Mike (NC State): Florida State vs Miami.  One of the two rivalry games the Noles face as the season draws to a close.  The Hurricanes are peaking at the right time, and the Seminoles have looked vulnerable over most of this season.  Will this be the game that ruins the chance of getting an ACC team into the first College Football Playoffs?

John (UNC):  The spotlight is on the Florida State-Miami game, but the other four games have bigger implications. Will North Carolina get one step closer to bowl eligibility against the Panthers? Will NC State get to six wins with a victory over the lowly Demon Deacons? What will another (expected) loss for the Hokies do to Frank Beamer’s tenure at Virginia Tech? And how will fierce rivals Clemson and Georgia Tech fare coming into a game with only four losses between them? There’s a lot at stake on Saturday, and it’s more than just pride.

Brian (FSU): I could say the only time ranked teams from the ACC are playing each other this weekend, and it is a rivalry game in GT vs. CU… but the Duke game is also important.  Right now it is a 3 way race for the Atlantic, in reality.  GT needs a lot of help. Duke controls its destiny.  UM is in a good tie-breaker position against Duke head to head.

 Anthony (Syracuse):Well, there are two top notch games between FSU/Miami and Georgia Tech/Clemson.  What else could anyone want?

WHO ARE YOUR FOUR PLAYOFF TEAMS IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY?

David (FSU): 1) Miss State 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Alabama (obviously this changes after this weekend).

Len (Louisville): 1 Miss State, 2) FSU, 3) Oregon. I was expecting a bigger margin of victory from FSU so I put them at #2. The top 3 are.solid but #4 isn’t getting any easier. My top candidates for the 4 spot are Alabama, TCU & Baylor. I would give this spot to the Big 12 champ but for now I will put Baylor there.

Mike (NC State):1 Florida State, 2 Oregon, 3 Mississippi State, 4 Alabama

John (UNC):  Oregon, Mississippi State and Florida State were victors on Saturday, but Michigan State fell out of the race entirely when they lost to rival Ohio State. I’m not ready to put the Buckeyes in the rankings though, because Alabama has made a great case to be team #4 this week. Actually, make that team #3. With a loss against the Crimson Tide this weekend, Mississippi State falls out of the rankings too, and TCU moves in. Get ready for the Horned Frogs!

Brian (FSU): Right now: 1) Miss St, 2) FSU, 3) Oregon, 4) TCU… of course I think Baylor having the tie-breaker over TCU should count for something.  At year end: 1) Bama, 2) Oregon, 3) Baylor (I think TCU will choke at UT… calling it now), 4) Miss St (With 1 loss, they beat a battered Ole Miss squad but by losing to Bama they avoid the SEC Title game, but resume trumps a 1 loss OSU BIG winner…  the BIG then literally flips a… cannot finish that sentence.) 

Anthony (Syracuse): I am going with Florida State, Mississippi State, Oregon, and TCU. I have zero issues with the way the playoff committee has things right now.  Except… why is Florida State #3?  They beat Notre Dame… who was good enough to propel Arizona State UP three spots.  Meanwhile, Oregon has a MUCH worse loss and just had their Michigan State win downgraded.  I think that they were just trolling #FSUTwitter

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
12 Nov 2014
4 Comments

Proposed Changes in Sports #1

Everyone has some opinions on what they would like to see change–both in the sports world and outside of it.  For whatever its worth (and it probably is not worth much), there are plenty of changes throughout sports that this author would like to see.  Here is the first:

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Why are there ranked standings for this in November?  As we speak #FSUTWITTER is afire as to how Florida State has dropped from #2 to #3, just by winning its 25th straight game.  Admittedly, the drop makes NO sense.  The team jumping FSU is Oregon, whose signature win was Michigan State, who just lost to Ohio State, who lost to Virginia Tech–the worst team in the ACC Coastal that Florida State currently leads.  The transitive game is risky, but it has to mean something.

My proposed change is that the committee stop releasing actual rankings, and instead just release a top 4, next 6, middle 5, next 5, and last 5 for the first three weeks. To strike a balance between no disclosure and full disclosure, the tiered disclosures would (a) allow some transparency; (b) keep everyone interested, (c) stimulate discussion, (d) encourage speculation as to where teams fit within a tier, and (e) allow the committee to defer having to make actual ranking decisions until teams have played at least 10 games.  Thus, for this week, the committee would issue this alphabetical ranking:

Top 4: Alabama, Florida State, Mississippi State, Oregon

Next 6: Arizona State, Auburn, Baylor, Ohio State, Ole Miss, TCU

Middle 5: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas State, MSU, UCLA

Next 5: Clemson, LSU, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Wisconsin

Last 5: Duke, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Texas A&M, Utah

This way, the committee would only be indicating a general rank–giving teams a preliminary idea of where they stand.  The top tier would have an idea that the committee seems to like what they have done so far, but no certainty.  And the lack of certainty also adds hope for all teams and fan bases.  And does it really matter right now who is #1?  If #1 or #4 loses, they are in jeopardy.

These rankings mean very little right now because there are so many important games left to play.  In a 12-game season, where the first 4-5 weeks are primarily OOC games, there is little to go by.  Moreover, many top conferences games that fall short of being rivalries (i.e. the slate of games this past Saturday) are played towards the end of the season.

Also, what is the point of having a team at #7, if #7 can leapfrog #4 with a win even if #4 also wins.  And so on.  Why did Arizona State move up to #6  for beating Notre Dame, but Florida State moved down despite beating the same team?  Either beating Notre Dame is impressive or it is not.  That is the problem with rankings.  Each new standings only reveals the weakness in the prior rankings–as the committee seemed to miss the boat.  Only we all know that the committee can only work with what it has at the time.

In March, the committee makes its final decisions in the hours up until the bracket is announced.  The fact that there is any transparency is great.  And, at some point, the committee can and should show its full hand.  The Confidential proposes the third Tuesday of November.  At that point, every team would have at least 10 games played.  That is a fair time to finally put numbers on things.  But in these early weeks of providing guidance, the need for transparency is reduced and the need to know that the committee is only temporarily ranking teams is justified.

Not the most dramatic change ever, but one that this author thinks is appropriate.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , ,
11 Nov 2014
1 Comment

The Confidential’s ACC Standings Poll: Week 12

It is now November.  The season is down to its final month of regular season games.  The ACC has identified a few teams that are weak (Wake Forest and Syracuse), and several that are mediocre (Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, North Carolina, BC, and perhaps North Carolina State).  Still, that leaves eight teams that are something more than mediocre and let’s see how they stand in the correspondents poll.

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Football and tagged , , ,
10 Nov 2014
18 Comments

Fantasy Football Entry Page: Week 12

Remember, the Confidential’s Fantasy Football game is structured to allow late entries.  THERE IS STILL TIME TO ENTER !

OVERALL CONTEST:

We don’t go by total points for the whole season; rather, we just allow teams to win the week or not.  Whoever wins the most weeks, wins the overall prize.

Here are the standings:

OVERALL PRIZE STANDINGS:

1. Brian & Lenville Cards 3

3. MCaffrey & ACaffrey  2 wins

4. Josh Vickery  1 win

6.  The other billions of people on the planet  0 wins

For Week 11 results, see here.   For rules, see here.  As a reminder, to enter, simply comment below with an ACC QB, RB, WR, Flex, Defense, and Coach.  We’ll do the rest.

 

Entries due before kickoff of the first ACC/Notre Dame game, which is THURSDAY at 7pm this week!!!! 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , ,
09 Nov 2014
1 Comment

Week 11 Fantasy Football Results

The Confidential is running a fantasy football contest each week and during the regular season.  Here are the rules.  Remember, you can enter in Week 9 and still be eligible for the overall prize–which is given to the entrant who wins the most weeks.  But, for now, let’s recap the Week 11 results:

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , ,
09 Nov 2014
1 Comment

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 12

After 11 weeks, only 16 entrants remain in the running for the prize.  Nobody was eliminated again.  Everyone remaining is doing great!

Here are the folks still in the running, as well as the picks that they have used to date:

No User Name Wk4 Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7 Wk8 Wk9
1 4 TIME CHAMPS-FINGERS CROSSED GT MIA PITT NCST VTC FSU ND LOU CLEM
MIA
BC
2 BCEAGLE74 BC NCST ND LOU VTC FSU MIA SYR CLEM
MIA
ND
3 CDWHIT09 BC DUKE PITT NCST VTC FSU ND LOU CLEM
ND
MIA
4 CLEMSON82 GT DUKE ND LOU VTC FSU MIA SYR BC
ND
MIA
5 DREW_WMS GT CLEM PITT NCST VIRG LOU ND DUKE BC
ND
MIA
6 DSHRIMPTONIV DUKE GT PITT NCST VIRG FSU MIA SYR BC
MIA
ND
7 INFIELDIN UNC MIA DUKE NCST VTC CLEM ND LOU BC
GT
ND
8 INTOTHEMEATGRINDER SYR DUKE PITT NCST VIRG FSU ND LOU BC
ND
MIA
9 JFLIPPEN NCST LOU MIA DUKE VIRG FSU ND CLEM BC
MIA
ND
10 MIKEMAB2000 ND FSU PITT NCST LOU GT CLEM SYR BC
ND
FSU
11 MR. TAR HEEL NCST WF GT BC VIRG LOU MIA SYR UNC
ND
DUKE
12 MSU_DAWGS02 SYR WF ND BC VIRG FSU MIA LOU CLEM
ND
MIA
13 SCHMHOO BC WF PITT NCST VIRG LOU ND CLEM MIA
MIA
ND
14 TWOHOOS SYR WF ND NCST VIRG LOU MIA CLEM BC
ND
MIA
15 UOFL223 VTC MIA DUKE LOU VIRG FSU ND SYR BC
MIA
ND
16 WAHOO 88 SYR WF GT BC VIRG CLEM ND LOU MIA
MIA
ND
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , ,
05 Nov 2014
3 Comments

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 10/11

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 10) and the Week that will be (Week 11) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Special thanks to the Confidential contributors for their comments and opinions.  Tell us what you think below.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR THE ACC IN WEEK 10?

Len (Louisville): The way Miami beat North Carolina. The Canes are finishing strong as Duke Johnson is playing up to his potential & as their freshman QB settles into the starting role. They.are an improved team over the one that played the Cards in the first game of the season.

Mike (NC State): The relative ease with which Miami handled UNC.  I thought Fedora’s team had turned a corner, but now they need to win two of their last three to get into a bowl. If the Canes get to Charlotte to face FSU, that could actually be interesting…they beat Duke but lost to Tech…hmm…

John (UNC):  Louisville really blew it. They had a huge lead over the #2 team in the nation and couldn’t finish. Honestly, I wasn’t surprised the Cardinals led 21-7 at one point. I was more surprised that they didn’t win. The Seminoles, while talented, haven’t seemed as unstoppable as they were last year. They looked extremely vulnerable against a motivated Louisville team playing in front of a home crowd. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if the Noles lose one of their next four games. The remaining schools (Virginia, Miami, Boston College, Florida) have either beaten, or narrowly lost, to some of the hottest programs this year (just ask Georgia).

Brian (FSU):   I was surprised how good UM looked against UNC.  I was already concerned about the UVA game and UM, but now UM is looking like a very dangerous game for the Noles.

Anthony (Syracuse): I really thought that Florida State would play a 60-minute game against Louisville.  Instead, it was a 35 minute game, with a lot of good fortune along the way.  Florida State fans may not want to hear it, but the thing about luck is that it eventually runs out.  Florida State needs to play much better if it is going to repeat as national champions.  Jameis Winston impressed the heck out of me though.  If he can mature off-the-field, he could be an all-time great on-the-field.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE/DISAPPOINTMENT FOR YOUR SCHOOL IN WEEK 10?

Len (Louisville): That Parker didn’t score on the first play of the game. When he is up to full speed that would normally be a TD. I was surprised by all the holes in the Cards defense in the second half leaving the Noles wide open for big plays. The game drew a 3.5 TV rating so that bolds will for the ACC & gave the Cards national exposure. It was a big recruiting weekend & the Cards got 4 quality commitments.

Mike (NC State): I was really surprised that Pharoah McKever would be the guy who made the play that snapped the Pack’s ACC drought.  Here’s hoping that the Wolfpack uses this win as a springboard.  It feels really good to stop thinking about the losing streak and realize State is just one win from bowl eligibility. 

John (UNC): I really thought North Carolina would put up a better fight against Miami. I really did. With a two game winning streak and a chance to take the lead in the Coastal Division race, there was so much at stake this past Saturday. Instead of rising to the occasion, the Tar Heels put up an anemic 258 yards and looked lost on both sides of the ball for the first time this year. At least in losses to East Carolina (who saw their Peach Bowl dreams go up in flames with a loss to Temple), Notre Dame and Clemson, the North Carolina offense was dynamic, giving the team a chance to win (unlike the defense). This week it wasn’t. Awful. Just awful.

Brian (FSU): I was surprised that FSU was able to develop a run game against one of the best D’s in the country.  I was disappointed by FSU’s kicker missing a kick finally.

Anthony (Syracuse): After facing a very tough Clemson team, Syracuse quarterback AJ Long continued to look like a true freshman against NC State.  Granted, they had two weeks to prepare for Syracuse.  Even worse, he was not running the ball until the 2nd half.  There is little point in having a mobile QB and taking his feet out of the game.  Not one of Tim Lester’s best offensive coordinator performances.  Then again, he has only had 4, none of them with Syracuse’s two best weapons or a healthy offensive line.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 11 FOR YOUR SCHOOL?

Len (Louisville): If the offense continues to improve & if the Cards can contain BC QB Murphy. The D has been solid against the run so it will be interesting to see how well they handle the best scrambling QB that they will face this seaon. With Dyer turning in back to back strong performances it would be nice to see the WR’s step up their game & score some TD’s against BC with Notre Dame lurking ahead on the schedule. This could be a trap game, if the Cards are caught looking ahead, BC is good enough to get the victory.

Mike (NC State): Curious to see two things: will the momentum carry on? And how well can the Pack deal with that Ga. Tech option?  They stopped the Syracuse rushing attack but this is a whole different wrinkle.  One that they face but once a year.

John (UNC):  I’m excited that it’s a bye week for the Heels. Whatever is going on with the team needs to be addressed. With three games left, and two wins needed for bowl eligibility, it’s not too late to save the season, even though it will be probably be disappointing either way because of the preseason expectations. Matchups against Pittsburgh (4-5) and NC State (5-4) at home are very winnable, and despite the fact that Duke is a much better team than the Tar Heels this year, games between the two schools are almost always close.

Brian (FSU): I would like to say hopefully FSU finally showing up at full strength in a game (last week 7 linebackers were our plus FSU’s safety who led the ACC with tackles), or as close to it as possible, but then word hits that Winston is banged up.  He should still play, but hopefully FSU will find a way to end this game early so Winston can get some rest along with other key players… of course hope is the key word… I am not expecting a big win by FSU.

Anthony (Syracuse): The offense must get better.  The defense has played well for the past several games now.  The offense needs to have one of those “it all comes together against a good opponent” games.  If they don’t have it this week, then the result will be sitting at home for December/January.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 11 FOR THE ACC?

Len (Louisville): The Cards have already lost at Virginia & in Death Valley, can they get a quality road win in Boston? Can ND win at Arizona State? GT going into NC State should be an interesting game but Duke is in control of the coastal so the meaning isn’t as great. However a three way tie is still possible if Duke losses again.

Mike (NC State): Three ACC teams are clinging by a thread to the top 25: Clemson (21), Duke (24) and Louisville (25).  The one that might fall off:  the Cards, if they are not on their game at Boston College.  And an angry Syracuse could give Duke more than they are bargaining for.

 John (UNC): I’m really interested in the NC State-Georgia Tech and Boston College-Louisville games. Can the Wolfpack seize the momentum from their first ACC win under second year coach, Dave Doeren, or will the Yellow Jackets prove that they belong back in the Top 25? And which team, the Eagles, or the Cardinals, win the Battle of the Birds and take that next step, proving that they belong in the upper echelon of the Atlantic? It will be a fun weekend to watch for sure.

Brian (FSU): I want to see if Louisville will implode or will it stand up and beat a very good BC team.  If BC wins, they are very much still in the Atlantic race.

Anthony (Syracuse): My eyes remain squarely on Florida State and Notre Dame.  If these two want to be in the playoff, they need to start working on style points.  ND has several spots to leapfrog.  Florida State eking by opponents will lead to a first-round playoff elimination.

WHO ARE YOUR FOUR PLAYOFF TEAMS IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY?

Len (Louisville):1) FSU 2) Miss State 3) Auburn 4) Oregon. The odds are good that the SEC will get two in but which two is still up in the air. The SEC East has been correctly called a dumpster fire with Missouri leading the way with their loss to Indiana. Should they win the CCG how would that effect the way the committee perceives the SEC? Florida thumping Georgia enhances the game between the Noles & Gators so I’m not buying the weak argument that FSU wouldn’t make it in with 1 loss, their schedule isn’t weak. They dont have a win against a top 5 team but you can also make a strong case as to why some of the SEC wins were againat over rated teams.

Mike (NC State):This part is getting a bit easier.  1) Mississippi State, 2) Florida State, 3) Oregon, 4) Auburn.  Although I am dead set against the SEC getting two in, this is where I think we are at this moment.

John (UNC): Ole Miss lost, so in comes Oregon, as predicted and right on schedule. They are joined by Mississippi State (who already beat Auburn, but has tough matchups against Alabama and Ole Miss ahead of them), Florida State (who is only in for now after their shaky play against Louisville) and Michigan State. Again, while another SEC West team may deserve a bid, and certainly the final few games could show this, I still think the committee will go for balance in the Playoff’s first year.

Brian (FSU): If the playoffs started today it would be: 1) Miss St, 2) FSU, 3) Auburn, 4) Bama; but I think at yearend FSU will lose somewhere (they are playing with fire too much this year with how they win, and I am still not sold they will finish unbeaten… UM is the best bet right now, but UF looks dangerous and so does UVA or BC and of course the Coastal Winner).  Also, I think Miss St will lose twice more (Bama and Ole Miss… although I am less certain about this outcome due to the Treadwell injury).  I think Auburn will lose to Bama. I think LSU could shock Bama, but I think Bama pulls it out.  All that said the Final 4 will be in my view: 1) Bama, 2) Oregon, 3) ND, 4) Mich St.

Anthony (Syracuse):My preseason was FSU, Alabama, Oregon, Michigan State.  I may have under-appreciated the Big XII, which has TCU and Kansas State primed to have someone enter the mix.  If the season ended today, then I think the committee nailed it with Miss St., FSU, Auburn, and Oregon.  All I know is that this system is working great.  Every game matters, yet we’ll decide the champion on the field.  #5 through #8 will have some reason to complain, but they had a chance to control their own destiny and tripped up.  No undefeated team (save Marshall) will be left out.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , ,
03 Nov 2014
3 Comments

The Confidential’s ACC Standings Poll: Week 11

It is now November.  The season is down to its final month of regular season games.  The ACC has identified a few teams that are weak (Wake Forest and Syracuse), and several that are mediocre (Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, North Carolina, and perhaps North Carolina State).  Still, that leaves eight teams that are something more than mediocre and let’s see how they stand in the correspondents poll.

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Football and tagged , , ,
02 Nov 2014

FSU vs. Louisville Key Numbers

In reviewing the FSU vs. Louisville game I decided to focus on some key numbers I thought were important to narrate this game.  So below, are some of the numbers that define this game:

21- As in how many points Louisville led by early on in the game, before FSU stormed back. It is the largest margin FSU has suffered from since the second game of the 2010 season (over 4 years), when in Jimbo Fisher’s second game as a head coach FSU traveled to Oklahoma and battled the #10 Sooners who easily destroyed FSU by thirty.  By the way, it was never even that close in the game (felt like 100 point loss).  That tells you a few things: a) how big of a deficit FSU had to overcome to win on Thursday, b) how hard it is to do that to FSU considering how many years FSU went without suffering a similar deficit, and c) how good Louisville can be to do that to FSU, even for only a quarter.

12.2- As in that was how many yards per carry (ypc) Dalvin Cook had in the game. Each carry was crucial to the Noles making the comeback.  This mark is the third highest ypc all year, and the most by any player who had 100 yards rushing in the game.  Remember he did this with the game on the line, when the Seminoles needed a boost, and against the best defense in the county going into the game.  Cook has had some other good games.  This game is his second 100 yarder, his first coming against Syracuse.  He scored his first td of his career in his first game of his career against the Citadel.  Yet he really made his entrance on the big stage Thursday Night.  Cook is FSU’s future, and possibly it’s present with how Williams has struggled on and off the field and Pender always an injury concern.

3- As in how many touchdowns and interceptions Jameis Winston had in the game. He dug part of FSU’s hole, and then dug FSU out.  Much like Winston’s career at FSU, his game had many highs and many lows, which are often self-inflicted lows. In the end he pulled it out, as he has done 22 straight times to extend FSU’s win streak to 24.

1- As in either 1 amazing body slam by the Golden Cub (aka-Nick O’Leary) or 1 missed kicked by Mr. Automatic (aka- Roberto Aquayo ).  Both equally surprised me, but one caused me to have flashbacks to games against the Canes while the other made me have flash backs of Kurt Angle.  Thank goodness the kick did not mean anything in terms of the game result.

0- As in no td’s for Devante Parker. Now, do not get me wrong, Parker was killing the FSU secondary for the tune of 200+ receiving yards, but almost half of that total came from the first play from scrimmage.  Gardner hit a wide open Parker who was tracked down from behind by the speedy FSU secondary just short of the goal-line.  Shockingly, FSU prevented Louisville from scoring at all on this drive, and I am sure Petrino was annoyed he did not have either 3 or 7 more points at the end of the game.  Parker not getting what seemed to be a sure TD hurt Louisville.

28- As in how many carries Dyer had on the ground for the Cardinals. On those carries he had over a hundred yards and three touchdowns.  These numbers helped keep the Cardinals offense cooking, which has struggled at times.  Unfortunately, he will leave the Cardinals at year end, but it is clear Dyer is a weapon for them the rest of the season (watch out BC).

10- As in how many times Louisville failed to convert third downs against FSU’s defense, which worked out to 1 for 11. This number proved to be telling, as Louisville could not get key first downs when the game came to a close.  In the same vein you can add to the number 2 in this category, as in how many 4th down conversions failed.  The last one clearly was the most brutal… right through the hands is all I will say.

Posted by brianfsu9 in ACC only
02 Nov 2014
16 Comments

Fantasy Football Entry Page: Week 11

Remember, the Confidential’s Fantasy Football game is structured to allow late entries.  THERE IS STILL TIME TO ENTER AND WIN THE OVERALL CONTEST!

OVERALL CONTEST:

We don’t go by total points for the whole season; rather, we just allow teams to win the week or not.  Whoever wins the most weeks, wins the overall prize.

Here are the standings:

OVERALL PRIZE STANDINGS:

1. Brian & Lenville Cards 3

3. M Caffrey   2 wins

4. Josh Vickery & ACaffrey 1 win

6.  The other billions of people on the planet  0 wins

For Week 109 results, see here.   For rules, see here.  As a reminder, to enter, simply comment below with an ACC QB, RB, WR, Flex, Defense, and Coach.  We’ll do the rest.

 

Entries due before kickoff of the first ACC/Notre Dame game, which is THURSDAY at 7pm this week!!!! 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , ,

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