The Confidential

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The ACC & The Postseason

While the Confidential continues to invite fans and friends to join its bracket contest, what about the ACC teams themselves?  Well, numerous ACC teams are still dancing.

From a mini-dance standpoint, Virginia and Maryland did not make it to the NCAA tournament, but both were eagerly invited to the N.I.T.  Last year’s ACC champion, Florida State, stumbled this year.  But they still landed a #4 seed in the NIT and will host Louisiana Tech tonight.   Maryland was given a #2 seed and hosts Niagara tonight.  Virginia earned a #1 seed and will be hosting Norfolk State tonight.  You may recall Norfolk State as a mainstay on the Rutgers’ football schedule.

But everyone is interested in the Big Dance.  How about Louisville?  Set to join in 2014, everyone knows by now that the Cardinals are the #1 overall seed.  Many prognosticators are prognosticating that Louisville will win it all.  Giant leap of faith there.  But it is hard to disagree with that pick.  Syracuse, Pitt, and Notre Dame will be playing ACC games in the fall.  But all three are dancing, receiving #4, #8, and #7 seeds, respectively.  Pitt may have been screwed with its seed, but it can beat Gonzaga.  Will they?  We’ll see.  Syracuse also got sent to San Jose to play West Coast teams.  But they are all dancing.

The ACC is further represented by Tobacco Road, which placed Duke, North Carolina, and North Carolina State as #2, #8, and #8 seeds.  Those seeds seem fair.  Miami finishes out the ACC teams with a #2 seed in the East.  While a #2 seed is argued by some as unfair or disrespectful, it seems within the realm of appropriate.  Remember, the Committee can adjust seeds by one or two places to keep the conferences sorted out and prevent rematches.

In any event, there are eleven ACC teams left standing.  This time of year, rivalries are set aside and we can all root for our conference mates…at least until they face each other.  So good luck to all ACC teams… may your March Madness continue as long as possible…

The Confidential Bracket Contest: 3 More Full Days to Enter

Again, we will be holding a contest–prize to be announced soon–for friends of the Confidential.  That means YOU, plus anyone else that you want to invite.

We will be using Yahoo:

Group ID#: 25957
Password: acc

Here is the link: http://y.ahoo.it/dHZr68Lp

Go ahead and join today…

The Confidential.

The Confidential Bracket Contest Reminder!!!!

While it is not clear whether the ACC will be able to take pride in 8, 9, or 10 teams in the tournament, the Confidential wants everyone to get excited NOW.  We will be holding a contest–prize to be announced soon–for friends of the Confidential.  That means YOU, plus anyone else that you want to invite.

We will be using Yahoo:

Group ID#: 25957
Password: acc

Here is the link: http://y.ahoo.it/dHZr68Lp

Go ahead and join today…

The Confidential.

ACC Bubble Watch: March 15, 2013

As the ACC tournament shifts into Day 2, the fortunes of the two ACC “bubble” teams, Virginia and Maryland, remain alive.  For Maryland, defeating Wake Forest was simply a necessity to stay in the discussion. 

ESPN has updated its bubble watch for Maryland as follows:

Maryland [21-11 (8-10), RPI: 82, SOS: 118] The Terps survived an NIT-guaranteeing potential loss against the typically dismal Wake Forest Demon Deacons Thursday, a win which nonetheless still leaves them outside serious bubble contention. After all, the Terps do have just four wins against teams ranked better than 150 in the RPI; that two of them came against Duke and NC State doesn’t really matter, given the utter softness of Maryland’s nonconference schedule (No. 297), ugly RPI and a sheet full of cupcakes. It’s easy to pick on, say, Southern Miss when we’re talking about the mediocrity on the bubble, but really, the fact that the Terps are even still in fringe contention for an at-large bid says it best. And with all of that discouragement out of the way, Maryland’s win Thursday did one thing: It gave them another crack at Duke. I’m not sure I?’d slot Maryland in the tournament even if they do win Friday, but that win obviously couldn’t hurt.

The commentary on Virginia is not all that positive either, noting Virginia’s glut of “bad losses.” 

But the great thing about the conference tournaments is that teams can control their own destinies by winning it all.  The late, great Jimmy Valvano proved that with North Carolina State.  And both Virginia and Maryland can still do so.

 

Neat CBS Feature for Tracking RPI

CBS and Jerry Palm have this cool new feature.  Maybe it is not new, but it is new to us, anyway.  In any event, you can enter in any college basketball team and see what they need to root for that day to boost their RPI.  The link is here: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/jerry-palm-reader/.

As an example, for Virginia, it lists:

ACC Tournament Begins Tomorrow!

The out-of-conference games are done.  Season 1 complete.  The regular season conference games are done.  Season 2 is complete.  Now the college basketball world heads into Season 3: the Conference tournaments.  For the ACC, the tournament kicks off tomorrow with four very good games.

Here is the complete schedule, courtesy of the Bleacher Report:

Tournament Schedule & TV Information

Thursday, March 14 (First Round)

Game 1: No. 8 Boston College vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech, 12 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Game 2: No. 5 NC State vs. No. 12 Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Game 3: No. 7 Maryland vs. No. 10 Wake Forest, 7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Game 4: No. 6 Florida State vs. No. 11 Clemson, 9 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

 

Friday, March 15 (Second Round)

Game 5: No. 1 Miami vs. Game 1 Winner, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Game 6: No. 4 Virginia vs. Game 2 Winner, 2 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Game 7: No. 2 Duke vs. Game 3 Winner, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Game 8: No. 3 North Carolina vs. Game 4 Winner, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

 

Saturday, March 16 (Semifinals)

Game 9: Game 5 Winner vs. Game 6 Winner, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN/ACC Network)

Game 10: Game 7 Winner vs. Game 8 Winner, 3 p.m. ET (ESPN/ACC Network)

 

Sunday, March 17 (Finals)

Game 11: Game 9 Winner vs. Game 10 Winner, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN/ACC Network)

The big games to watch on Thursday are the Maryland-Wake Forest and North Carolina State-Virginia Tech games.  Maryland is squarely on the bubble. There is no room for a loss against the Demon Deacons.  North Carolina State is likely on the right side of the bubble.  But one never knows just how at-large spots will be open.  The Wolfpack are probably safe, but every year there is a surprise or two.  It’s best to remove all doubt when you get the chance to.

 

Notre Dame to the ACC in 2013!

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21854935/report-notre-dame-fleeing-to-acc-for-next-season

More to come later, just wanted to get this out there ASAP.

State of the Pack: What has gone before…

So we, the Wolfpack nation, were reduced to this:  pulling for the Maryland Quitterpins vs the favored Virginia Cavaliers.  To make matter worse, the Terps teased us, at times controlling the game before falling short by only four points.  So that was that; no first-round bye in the Acc Tournament, instead a meeting with Virginia Tech on Thursday afternoon.

But how did we get to this point? Time for a (not very) nostalgic look back at the 2013 season…

It started with rampant optimism.  Many prognosticators had NCSU winning the conference, with at least one preaseason magazine picking the Pack to make the Final Four.  The first sign that this might be inacurate came on the sunny isle of Puerto Rico, where State came out flat and lost to Oklahoma State 76-56 in a rout that may not have been as close as the score indicated.  While the Cowboys would prove better than expected, the Pack would not meet their lofty expectations at all.

Still, the ship seemed to be righted on January 12th when State dominated then-number-one Duke 84-76.  Standing at 14-2 and 3-0 in conference play, the Pack looked like they could handle anybody.

At least until the following Wednesday, when the game that perhaps defined this maddening rollercoaster ride occured:  the 51-50 loss at Maryland.  That’s when we all had to admit that despite the great recruiting class, despite the preseason predictions, despite last season’s surprise Sweet 16 appearance, this was no Final Four candidate.

There would be other peaks and valleys this year, beating North Carolina in Raleigh, losing to Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, but the Pack slid slowly down the ratings from a preseason #6  to the current position of a team unranked but at least certain of an NCAA bid.

If force to give this team a letter grade based solely on the regular season, I would go B-.  C+ if not for the split with both Duke and Carolina, B+ if not for the losses to Wake and Maryland, and to FSU when the bye was still ours to lose.

I am a bit disturbed as I check out State message boards around the net.  Some are already howling for Mark Gottfried’s head.  While much did go wrong this year, I urge patience.  We are pretty much guaranteed a second straight trip to the Dance, and as all State fans know, once you get there, who knows?  Our lack of depth is all that is holding us back at this point.

As for the upcoming ACC tournament, we open, as mentioned above, on Thursday vs Virginia Tech at 2 pm.  We should expect to win that one.  Then it will be Virginia on Friday, and I am smelling a Pack victory there as well, although it would be something of an upset.  If so, Miami will likely be waiting in the semifinals, and that should be that.  But if, and I cannot see it happening, we somehow stun the Canes, either Duke or Carolina will be waiting.  I think Carolina; Duke tends to look ahead to the NCAAs and sometimes stumble in the conference tourney.

Anyway, the winner of State/Miami would then face the winner of Duke/UNC.  Any matchup of these four teams will be a final for the ages.  I think Miami vs UNC, and all bets are off.

The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: March 11, 2013

So there it is.  Another regular season in the books.  As we head into the exciting tournament season, here is the final “regular season” weekly Top 12, with 5 precincts reporting:

#1 Duke, 4 first place votes, 59 pts.

#2 Louisville, 1 first place vote,  55 pts.

#3 Miami, 50 pts.

#4 Pittsburgh, 44 pts.

#5 Syracuse, 36 pts.

#6 North Carolina. 35 pts.

#7 Notre Dame, 32 pts.

#8 (tie) North Carolina State & Virginia, 24 pts.

#10 Maryland, 13 pts.

#11 Florida State, 12 pts.

#12 (tie) Georgia Tech & Boston College lemson, 3 pts.

Wake Forest and Clemson got votes in early polls.  Only Virginia Tech failed to have ANYONE give them a top 12 vote at any point in the season.  Good job firing Seth Greenberg.

How about Syracuse–ranked #4 in one poll and #9 in another.  Virginia has a pretty good range too, from 7th to 10th.  Notre Dame ranged from 5th to 8th.  The remaining teams were not quite as variable.

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…

The Confidential Bracket Contest Reminder

While it is not clear whether the ACC will be able to take pride in 8, 9, or 10 teams in the tournament, the Confidential wants everyone to get excited NOW.  We will be holding a contest–prize to be announced soon–for friends of the Confidential.  That means YOU, plus anyone else that you want to invite.

We will be using Yahoo:

Group ID#: 25957
Password: acc

Here is the link: http://y.ahoo.it/dHZr68Lp

Go ahead and join today…

The Confidential.

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