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01 Dec 2011

De Ja Vu: ACC Fairs Poorly in Day Two of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge

The ACC started slow in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and finished slow, allowing the Big 10 to win 8 out of the 12 games.  This is shaping up as one of those years where the Big 10 is quite strong and the ACC is subpar.

Of course, the ACC does get to claim a victory in the biggest matchup of the night–#9 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina.  In a 60-57 score more befitting of a MAC football game than an ACC basketball game, Wisconsin was able to control the tempo but not the final scoreboard.  But even this win was not overly impressive for the ACC, given the large margin by which Ohio State beat Duke.  At least North Carolina was able to rebound from its loss to UNLV over the weekend and improve to 6-1.

The other ACC win came from Wake Forest, who improved to 5-2 by beating Nebraska.  The 55-53 slugfest gives Wake Forest a nice road win.

The rest of the ACC lost.  In a bit of a surprise, Indiana showed that it is a legitimate 7-0 team by beating NC State on the road, 86-75.  Tom Crean may finally be turning things around in Hoosier-land.  The Wolfpack fell to 5-2 with the loss.

Virginia Tech also fell to 5-2, losing a road game to Minnesota, 58-55.  Minnesota is another team off to a great start at 7-1.  It seems like the entire Big Ten is off to a really good start.

Michigan State is one team that did not get off to a good start this year, losing to North Carolina and Duke.  However, the Spartans have responded with 5 straight wins, including a 65-49 victory against overmatched Florida State.  With the loss, the Seminoles drop to 5-3.

And, in a result that should surprise absolutely no one, hapless Boston College lost to Penn State, at home, 62-54.  Even the Nittany Lions are 6-2.  Boston College dropped to 2-5.

With all precincts reporting, the results are in.  The Big 10 walloped the ACC, 8-4.  Not to beat a dead horse, but the Big 10 is starting out much like the Big East did last year.  They have four undefeated teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Northwestern).  In addition, they have two 7-1 teams in Minnesota and Purdue.  Meanwhile, three teams that expect to be in the Big Dance lag behind those schools, with Wisconsin at 6-1 and Michigan/Michigan State both at 6-2.  Only Iowa, at 4-3, is not 2 games above .500 in the Big 10.

In contrast, the ACC has no undefeated schools.  Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia have one loss apiece.  The ACC does have 6 more schools that are at least two games above .500.  Unfortunately, the head-to-head matchups with the major conferences are suggesting that this is going to be a down year for the ACC overall.  The good news is that Duke will likely rebound and North Carolina will be making news all season long.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
30 Nov 2011

ACC Fairs Poorly in Day One of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge

Six games into the 2011-2012 ACC/Big 10 Challenge, the ACC has gotten off to a very poor start.  In fact, only two of the six games were won by ACC teams.

The most important game of the night was between #2 Ohio State and #3 Duke.  Ohio State jumped out to a 9-0 lead, and widened the score to 47-28 at the half.  The final result was a romp over the visiting Blue Devils, 85-63.  Four Ohio State players combined for 76 of those points, led by Jared Sullinger’s 21 points.  For Duke, this loss takes away the momentum from the great run in Maui.  In its first true road game of the year, Duke was utterly outplayed.

Virginia did salvage some respect for the ACC by defeating #14 Michigan at home, 70-58.  This legitimizes Virginia’s 6-1 start by adding that first quality win to the resume.  Things are looking up in Charlottesville.

Miami hoped to add a similar notch in its belt by traveling to Purdue.  However, the Boilermakers were just too much for the Hurricanes, winning 76-65. Miami fell to 4-2 on the season.

But not all home teams fared well.  Northwestern improved to 6-0 by defeating host Georgia Tech.  In fact, Northwestern dominated to the tune of a 76-60 score.  This may be the year for Northwestern to finally make it to the Big Dance.  For Georgia Tech, they drop to 4-3.

Illinois also notched a win over Maryland in College Park.  The Illini improved to 7-0 in the 71-62 victory.  Maryland is now a disappointing 3-3 as the post-Gary Williams era is off to a slow start.

Thankfully, Clemson was able to topple Iowa in the ACC’s sole road victory.  In fact, Clemson jumped to a 34-20 halftime lead and then coasted to a 71-55 record.  With the win, Clemson is now 4-2.  This was a much-needed win to help offset the two disappointing losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina.

The day belonged to the Big 10 though.  Tomorrow’s big matchup, of course, is #9 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina.  The Tar Heels look to rebound from their upset loss to UNLV.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin is one of five Big 10 teams that is still unbeaten.  Florida State and Michigan State is another matchup to keep an eye on, even though both teams have started a bit slow due to tough schedules.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
29 Nov 2011

Updated ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 29, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson is reeling.  Meanwhile, the odds are that Cincy will beat UConn, WVU will beat USF, and the voters will like West Virginia. 


ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. Auburn.   

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Utah.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Louisville.

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v Florida

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v San Diego State

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina State v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Not going to penalize Syracuse for beating everyone on its schedule.  6-0 is 6-0.  Va Tech and Stanford are good wins too.

Next big test: Florida on December 2.

2. Duke–At 7-0, and with more impressive wins that Syracuse, Duke could be #1.  But both teams are just holding North Carolina’s spot right now.   Duke did great in Maui though.

Next big test: Ohio State on November 29.

3. North Carolina–At 5-1, North Carolina gets a huge benefit of the doubt here after that loss to UNLV.  2 huge tests coming up–we’ll know a lot more soon enough.

Next big test: Wisconsin on November 30.

4. Virginia Tech–At 5-1, the Hokies looked very good in losing to Syracuse and beating Oklahoma State.

Next bit test:  Minnesota on November 30.

5. North Carolina State–At 5-1, North Carolina State is off to a real good start.  The win over Texas was nice.

Next big test: Indiana on November 30.

6. Pittsburgh–At 5-1, the Panthers are still reeling from the loss to Long Beach State.  Winning, but not entirely impressively.

Next big test: Tennessee on December 3.

7. Virginia–At 5-1, the Cavaliers still have no quality wins.  And that bad loss to TCU lingers.

Next big test: Michigan on November 30.

8.  Miami–At 4-1, the loss to Mississippi is not the worst loss ever.  A good team gets the win there.

Next big test: Purdue on November 29.

9.  Florida State– At 5-2, hit a rough spot with losses to Harvard and UConn.  Two very good teams, but two losses nevertheless.

Next big test: Michigan State on November 30.

10. Wake Forest– At 4-2, the Demon Deacons have two decent losses, but got a nice win over Texas Tech to give them the edge of Georgia Tech here.

Next big test: Nebraska on November 30.

11. Georgia Tech–at 4-2, Georgia Tech needs a good win soon.

12. Clemson–at 3-2, with closer losses, Clemson gets the nod here.

13. Maryland–at 3-2, same record as Clemson, but barely beat Florida Gulf Coast and some horrible losses.

14. Boston College--at 2-4.  Nowhere to go but up.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–at 11-1, Virginia Tech head into the ACC Championship Game on the highest of highs.

2. Clemson–after losing two straight, Clemson limps into the ACC Championship Game at 9-3.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.  The loss to the Hokies was a major disappointment, but they get the nod here.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–the loss to Boston College remains disappointing, but North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–second-half collapse against West Virginia leaves Pitt at 5-6, with a game against Syracuse to decide who gets bowl eligibility.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse continued with a drubbing by wounded Cincinnati.  Still can get to bowl eligibility with a win over Pitt.

12.  Boston College–the win over Miami gives the Eagles three conference wins.  That has to mean something.

13. Duke–the best 3-9 team in the country?  We’ll leave that for someone else to figure out.

14. Maryland–the Randy Edsall era is not exactly off to a great start.  Like Rich Rodriguez, one wonders if it is possible to fix.  If you are brought in to take your team to the next level, dropping down three levels is a poor way to start.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Nov 2011

Review of ACC Football Predictions, November 27, 2011

After a 4-3 week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Miami (6-5) hosting Boston College (3-8)

Prediction: Miami 17-Boston College 10.

Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17.  The Confidential got the Miami score right, but missed entirely on whether Boston College would show up for this game.  The Eagles’ defense certainly did, forcing 4 turnovers and returning an interception for a touchdown.  0-1.

Georgia Tech (8-3) hosting Georgia (9-2)

Prediction: Georgia 33-Georgia Tech 24.

Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17.  This Georgia team has only lost to South Carolina and Boise St.  While they avoided all the big boys of the SEC West, Georgia Tech was no match for the Bulldogs.  That being said, Georgia has its hands full against LSU.  Good luck with that.  1-1.

North Carolina (6-5) hosting Duke (3-8)

Prediction: North Carolina 21-Duke 14.

Result: North Carolina 37, Duke 21.  Pretty much according to plan here.  North Carolina’s scoring output was a bit of a surprise, but Duke is much better at home.  2-1.

North Carolina State (6-5) hosting Maryland (2-9)

Prediction: NC State 28-Maryland 13.

Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41.  Credit Maryland for jumping out to a 41-14 lead.  Credit NC State for scoring the last 42 points.  Maryland’s disappointing season ends in a most disappointing way.  NC State shows a lot of heart here.  The Wolfpack even saw to it that The Confidential’s prediction margin of victory hold true!   3-1.

Wake Forest (6-5) hosting Vanderbilt (5-6)

Wake Forest 28-Vandy 24.

Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7.  Wow.  This was a surprise.  Chalk one up for the SEC.  3-2.

Florida (6-5) hosting Florida State (7-4)

Prediction: Florida State 27-Florida 23.  

Result: Florida State 21, Florida 7.  Nice work by Jimbo Fisher and crew to end the regular season on a high note.  At the same time, it is shocking how far the Gators have fallen.  All that talent and a 6-6 record?   4-2.

South Carolina (9-2) hosting Clemson (9-2)

Prediction: Clemson 26-South Carolina 20.

South Carolina 34, Clemson 13.  Well, so much for Clemson ending on a high note.  Being blown out in their last two games is a nice shiv in the side to the ACC.  Clemson drops to 9-3 and takes a lot of the luster out of the ACC Championship Game.  4-3.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Virginia (8-3) hosting Virginia Tech (10-1). 

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24-Virginia 14.

Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0.  Credit Mike London for getting Virginia to 8 wins.  But this is just a reminder of how far Virginia has to go to best its rival.  Virginia Tech is rolling now.  Hokies fans are certainly wondering how it is that Clemson is the reason why they are not undefeated.  But they get their opportunity for some revenge this week in the ACC Championship game.  5-3.

 


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Review: Harvard Upsets #20 Florida State

Friday was a good day for Massachusetts schools playing ACC schools from Florida.  Boston College traveled to Miami and upset the Hurricanes in football, 24-17.  But, in an even bigger upset, Harvard beat #20 Florida State in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, 46-41.

No, that score is not a misprint.  Harvard held Florida State to 41 points.  In fact, the halftime score was 14-14, which is far more befitting of a college football score.  In fact, according to CBS, the 28 points scored by both teams was historically inept:

The halftime score was 14-14, matching the lowest total for a half in a Division I game since 1986. Ole Miss (15) and South Carolina (13) also combined for 28 points in the first half of their game on Jan. 8, 2003. The Seminoles were 5 for 24 from the field in the first half, and Harvard went 3 for 23.

Those figures are just abysmal.  Between the two teams, they were 8 for 47 in the first half!  That is less than 20% shooting. In fact, while both teams improved in the second-half, Harvard won despite shooting 27.3% from the field for the game.  Interestingly, the teams were 8 for 27 from 3-point land: 29.6%.  Overall, they were 29 for 91 from the field: 31.9%.  Florida State actually shot better from behind the arc than overall!

With the win, Harvard advances to play Central Florida for the tournament championship.  UCF upset #4 Connecticut, who blew a 17 point lead in the second half.  Raise your hand if you guessed a Harvard-UCF title game!  Florida State gets to rebound from its awful performance by playing a motivated UConn team.

In other games:

  • In a result that surprised nobody, #1 North Carolina improved to 5-0 by defeating South Carolina 87-62.
  • Future ACC member Syracuse, currently ranked #5, rallied to defeat a tough Stanford team, 69-63, to win the NIT Preseason Tipoff Classic.  Syracuse improved to 6-0 in defeating the 5-1 Cardinal.
  • Wake Forest was obliterated by Arizona State, 84-56.  The Sun Devils were 1-3 heading into the game.  This does not bode well for the Demon Deacons.
  • Boston College showed some signs of life, fending off California Riverside, albeit in overtime.  A win is a win.
  • Clemson got to 3-2 by defeating Furman, 59-49.
  • Maryland also got to 3-2 by defeating Florida Gulf Coast, 73-67.
  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh justified its #17 ranking by taking care of business against Pennsylvania, 78-58, to improve to 5-1.
  • North Carolina State improved to 5-1 by defeating Elon, 82-67.
  • Virginia also improved to 5-1, defeating Wisconsin-Green Bay, 68-42.
  • Miami fell to Mississippi in overtime, 64-61.  With the loss, Miami falls to 4-1, while Mississippi improves to 5-1.  This loss may not look as bad in March if Mississippi ends up being on the right side of the bubble.

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Nov 2011
1 Comment

Boston College Stuns Miami!

The Boston College Eagles have been a punching bag for most of the football season.  To be sure, they were on a bit of a hot streak heading into their finale against Miami–having beaten Maryland and NC State to get to 3-8.  Meanwhile, Miami was 6-5, but coming off a (correct) decision to forego a bowl appearance this year as a self-imposed punishment for possible NCAA violations.  With Miami hosting Boston College, the collective wisdom was that Miami would take out its frustrations on Boston College.  Instead, Boston College turned the tables on Miami, defeating them 24-17.

The story of the game for Miami was turnovers.  Although the Hurricanes were able to move the ball as competently as Boston College, they committed 4 turnovers.  In fact, Boston College’s Luke Kuechly was able to return an interception for a touchdown in the fourth quarter, which provided the final margin for defeat.  In fact, during the game, Kuechly set Boston College record in a career.  He also broke his own ACC record for tackles in a season.  Quite a game for him.

For Miami, a difficult season comes to a disappointing end.  The season started with suspensions due to possible NCAA violations in the Nevin Shapiro scandal.  With a limited roster, Miami lost to Maryland in what would turn out to be the highlight of the Terrapins even worse season.  Although bowl eligible, the Hurricanes will miss a bowl game for the first time since 2007.  Nevertheless, credit Al Golden for keeping this team competitive all year despite the distractions.  Miami did–extending his contract through 2020.

For Boston College, the difficult season ends on a positive note.  The Eagles will not play in a bowl for the first time since 1998.  The Eagles began the season by losing to Northwestern, Central Florida, and Duke.  Those teams are 14-20 overall, with only Northwestern headed to a bowl game.  After beating FCS Massachusetts, the Eagles then lost their first three ACC games to stand at 1-6.  But  credit the Eagles for finish strong–beating Maryland, NC State, and Miami to finish with a conference record of 3-5.  One has to think that the strong finish will improve the chances of Boston College retaining head coach Frank Spaziani.  The team did not quit on him.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , ,
25 Nov 2011

A Lot of ACC Hoops Today…

If you are an ACC fan, you are likely a basketball fan, which makes today a GREAT day for you.  There are games all day, from 2:30 pm to 10:00 p.m.

The early games:

  • Virginia Tech plays Oklahoma State in the consolation game of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  Oklahoma State did not show up in its matchup against Stanford; however, Virginia Tech played quite well against Syracuse before ultimately falling.  This would be a huge statement game for Virginia Tech.  2:30 p.m.
  • Miami at Mississippi.  Miami is 4-0 on the year.  A win at Mississippi would add a good road loss to the resume.  4:00 p.m.
  • Harvard at Florida State.  Both teams are undefeated.  Tommy Amaker has some great recruiting classes coming in, but they are not there yet.  Still, this is a game that Harvard will really need if it is on the bubble again this year.  Florida State will need to bring its A game to hold them off.   4:30 p.m.
  • Cal-Riverside at Boston College.  Boston College has been terrible this year.  One of these 1-3 teams will get to 2-3.  If it’s not Boston College…who will this team ever be able to beat?  5:00 p.m.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Future ACC member Syracuse puts its 5-0 record on the line against Stanford, who is also 5-0.  This game is for the championship of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  For Syracuse, playing in Madison Square Garden is nothing new.  For Stanford, they destroyed Oklahoma State there on Wednesday and certainly would love a long plane ride home with the trophy.  Tipoff is at 5:00 p.m.

The 7:00 p.m. games:

  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh travels to Philadelphia to play Penn at the Palestra.  Pitt was a preseason top 10 team and cannot afford to lose another OOC game.  Penn always comes to play against big time opponents.
  • Elon at North Carolina State.  Fresh off a nice win over Texas, North Carolina State needs to take care of business here and get to 5-1.
  • Furman at Clemson.  Furman has the better record right now.  Think about that for a moment.  All games of this ilk are must-wins for the home team.  This one certainly qualifies for a disappointing Clemson team.
  • Florida Gulf Coast at Maryland.  Maryland has been awful this year.  They need to rebound from their 26-point loss to Iona by beating an overmatched, 2-3 team.  If not?  Shudder.
  • Green Bay at Virginia.  The Packers look outstanding in beating the Lions yesterday.  Wait, what?  At 4-1, Virginia needs to keep beating the beatable opponents.  Wisconsin-Green Bay certainly qualifies.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Wake Forest vs. Arizona State in the Old Spice Invitational.  Although Arizona State is only 1-3, this is the sole evening matchup between two major schools.  These two teams play in the consolidation game, while Dayton-Fairfield play for the Championship.  Who saw that coming?  Yes… this is a featured game by default.

The late game:

  • North Carolina vs. South Carolina in the Las Vegas Invitational.  Some decent names in this tournament, including USC and UNLV.  But nothing that this North Carolina team is expected to lose to.  The expectations are THAT high for this team.  Anything short of a 20-point win and there will be whispers.  This is the negative part about being #1, of course.  Game starts at 10:00 p.m. EST, give or take.

What a day… all these basketball games, with ample football sprinkled in too.  Enjoy!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
24 Nov 2011

Duke Wins Maui Invitational

With all the well-deserved press that North Carolina is receiving this year, Duke seems to be flying under the radar.   That may change soon, as Duke is now 7-0 after beating top 15 Kansas to win the Maui Invitational by a score of 68-61. In fact, Duke has now beaten Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, and Kansas on the early season.  Few teams have faced that many challenging opponents.  It appears that Duke has reloaded again and is very much deserving of being considered among the elite this year.

For Duke, the challenge against Kansas was the size disadvantage.  Not surprisingly, Kansas’s front line won the rebounding battle, albeit only by 5.  In fact, Duke was able to snare 11 offensive rebounds.  The difference was that Duke’s superior athleticism forced 17 turnovers.  Kansas simply could not recover from that many self-inflicted wounds.  In a rather amazing stat, Kansas forward Tyshawn Taylor had 11 turnovers.  That will have to be corrected in order for Kansas to generate a top 4 seed in March.

Duke was led by Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee, who each scored 17 points.  But the brightest star against Kansas was sophomore Tyler Thornton, who hit two giant three-point shots down the stretch to give Duke this win.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , ,

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