The Confidential

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The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # -1)

With the football season a mere two weeks away, the time has come for the Confidential’s Pre-Preseason Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  In any event, here they are:

  1. Florida State: Sooner or later, the King must be the King.  It has been a long time since the Seminoles were dominant.  Not sure it will happen this year, but they have the inside track for the ACC Championship.
  2. Virginia Tech:  While Miami and Florida State have been the ACC Kings, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC most seasons since the realignment.  The Hokies slide above Clemson due to divisional differences.
  3. Clemson: The first thing Clemson needs to do is forget about the late-season collapse.  The second thing it needs to do is look at all the talent on both sides of the ball.  It’s going to be fun.  Don’t count the Tigers out.
  4. Virginia:  The Confidential likes what happened with Virginia last year and envisions the team building off that success.  It is amazing what a good coaching hire can do to rejuvenate a program.  That Penn State game looks a lot less daunting right now too.
  5. North Carolina State: The Wolfpack have a fairly talented crew returning.  The difficulty of the schedule is questionable.  Tennessee and UConn could go either way.
  6. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets open the season with Virginia Tech.  If the Tech battle goes Ga Tech’s way, this #6 ranking will be low.
  7. North Carolina: The OOC game against Louisville will be tough, especially on the road.  But Elon, Idaho, and East Carolina is not too tough for the remainder of the slate.
  8. Pittsburgh: Every year, the Panthers seem ready to make a run.  Every year they do not.  So, it is #8 for Pitt until they capitalize on potential.
  9. Wake Forest: Not sure where Wake Forest is going with this OOC slate.  Anything from 1-3 to 3-1 is possible with Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Army, and Liberty.  Pencil in a win over Florida state though.
  10. Miami: A reasonably challenging OOC slate with USF, Notre Dame, and Kansas State.  But Miami gets North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech at home.
  11. Syracuse: An insane OOC, with preseason #1 USC, Missouri, Northwestern, and even Minnesota.  Is any other team playing 4 BCS conference teams OOC?  Throw in 4 conference road games and the USC game being home but on a neutral site and this has the makings of a very difficult year.
  12. Boston College: Boston College rallied last year, showing some serious character.  This should pay off in 2013.  Just not quite bowl-ready though.
  13. Duke: Outside of Stanford, Duke’s OOC is very soft.  This #13 ranking may end up being a little low.  But Duke’s going to have to prove it on the field before the Confidential believes.
  14. Maryland: Well, it cannot get WORSE for Randy Edsall, can it?  A tough OOC slate with Temple, UConn, West Virginia and William & Mary?  That’s right… William AND Mary.

The Confidential predicts a Seminoles-Hokies battle for the ACC Championship, with the Seminoles showing the world that they are back.

 

Today in the A.C.C. (August 10, 2012)

The Confidential had some fun yesterday at the expense of the Atlantic Coast Conference, but today it is back to the uber-serious ACC news.  Here is what is going on in the ACC for August 10, 2012:

Well, everyone plans to retire (except for 40% of transition baby boomers).  The real news here is that Phillips plans to do so soon–specifically, at the end of his term in July 2013.  So now Clemson must find a brand new A.D.  Or at least one that is less than retirement age.  Clemson President James F. Barker indicated that a national search for a replacement will be launched this fall, with the hopes of having a successor in place before Phillips’ contract ends.  Barker also had a slew of positive things to say about Phillips.  It is butt-kissing, funeral-quality stuff, so go read the ESPN article to get the flavor.

  • If you are an ACC school, or plan to be in 2013, chances are you are after an offensive lineman from Rochester, New York, named Alex Officer.

Actually, this was reported in ESPN’s “rumors” section, with a link to a Scout.com website that the Confidential is not yet “liquid” enough to subscribe too.  The upshot is that Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Virginia Tech are already after this guy.  Not sure where Randy Edsall is on this one.

This article also goes way out on a limb in projecting Duke and Wake Forest to be in the cellar of their respective divisions.

Clemson’s Sammy Watkins Out for Auburn Game

Unlike some teams, Clemson opens up the season with a tough matchup against Auburn in the Georgia Dome.  Unfortunately, they will have to do it without dynamic wide receiver Sammy Watkins, who was suspended for the first two games of the season because of his May misdemeanor arrest for marijuana possession.  Watkins will also miss Clemson’s home opener against Ball State.

Watkins had an outstanding freshmen season for Clemson, with 82 catches for 1219 yards and 12 touchdowns.  Watkins also added 229 yards rushing on only 31 carries–approximately 7 yards an attempt.  In addition, he returned 26 kickoffs for 683 yards.  On the season, Watkins led all ACC players in all-purposes yards with 2,228.  Only West Virginia’s Tavon Austin (2,574) and New Mexico State’s Taveon Rogers (2,356) had more all-purpose yards nationally.

Although his team will miss Watkins, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney noted that Watkins exemplary post-incident conduct was a mitigating factor and that Watkins has learned from his mistake:

“I told Sammy this past May that there would be a high end (number of games) and a low end, and it would be up to him as to the length of his suspension,” Swinney said in a statement. “He has done everything we have asked and then some, so the two-game suspension is the low end. He just finished his responsibilities last week and I met with Bob Arial (Watkins’s lawyer) today to make sure everything had been completed properly.”

* * *

““The game of football, or a game of football will never be more important to me than teaching young people important life lessons,” Swinney said. “I have learned that many times something that seems to be the worst thing that can happen to you can become the best thing. I know Sammy will learn from this and use this to make a difference in other people’s lives. I look forward to having No.2 back on the field soon.”

Clemson has enough talent to still start out the season 2-0.  But that first game against Auburn just got that much tougher.

With all the discussion of “penalties” lately, one wonders if the best penalty for this situation wouldn’t have been to suspend Watkins for the Ball State and Furman games (game 3).  First, Watkins would be able to play in the Auburn game–the game where he is needed most.  That allows his teammates and fans to not share in Watkins’ punishment.  Second, missing the Ball State and Furman games would prevent Watkins from running up his stats in two games that would likely be high-scoring affairs (at least for Clemson).  This punishes the individual.  The Confidential thinks that forcing players to sit out stat-padding games is the best way to narrowly tailor the punishment to the player.

Reports of ACC’s Death “Greatly Exagerrated”

Look, nobody can predict the future.  But for the very short term, at least, it looks like the Atlantic Coast Conference will be surviving intact.  In response to an inaccurate report of his death, Mark Twain once stated that the report of his death was “exaggerated.”  Similarly, it looks like the death of the ACC may have been prematurely pronounced too.

Florida State’s President Eric Barron addressed the trustees regarding realignment: http://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1373740.  Naturally, this will only cause the Florida State babies fans to simply seek to get him fired.  After all, why would anyone want its leader to be one to reject knee-jerk reactions.  In any event, nothing in what Barron had to say suggests that Florida State has one foot out the door.  Barron even became the 1,000,000th person to question why the ACC does not move to geographically logical divisions.  Not much to see here.

Dabo Swinney had all kinds of negative things to say about the Big XII rumors.  Most notable is that the rumors are hurting recruiting.  It certainly makes you wonder.  Do Clemson and Florida State fans REALLY think that kids in their locality are going to be thrilled about having games a time zone away?  Let the Presidents worry about the money.  Fans can just focus on being fans.

Again, neither of these individuals have the final say.  But both are being awfully bold in their statements.  It seems likely that a lot of the college football world is going to sit tight and see what happens with playoffs before making a move.  Makes sense, really.

No Sleepy Offseason—Florida State Officially Has Wandering Eyes

The Confidential was hoping that the period between the Big Dance ending and football starting could be a lazy, sleepy offseason.  A little lacrosse news, a little baseball news, some draft updates, etc.  Instead, it now looks like Florida State will be the latest school to enter the conference realignment fray.  Indeed, the Chairman of the Florida State Board of Trustees has indicated that the Seminoles should look into the Big XII conference.  Jimbo Fisher apparently tweeted something similar.  This legitimizes the rumors surrounding both Florida State and Clemson being dissatisfied with the ACC’s commitment to football.

Of course, the Confidential can sum up these rumors pretty succinctly.  Are you f-ing kidding me?

Florida State has done nothing on the gridiron for a decade now.  They have had four losses or more (usually more) every year since 2004.  This is a team that cannot win the ACC.  How are they going to compete in the SEC and Big XII?

I know, I know… the complaint will be that Florida State cannot compete without the money.  And the other schools make a few million dollars a year more.

Well, that is what they call an excuse.  A lame excuse, actually.  Florida State does not make less than Wake Forest.  If the Seminoles cannot beat the Demon Deacons on a regular basis, good luck with Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, LSU, etc.  It’s not money that makes those schools good.  It is competent recruiting, player development, and coaching on top of having elite status.  In other words, one cannot just say they are “elite,” they have to go out and prove it.  Even Texas, Florida, and Ohio State can have very mediocre seasons with the wrong mix of players and coaches. In any event, FSU has not been dominant as the elite football program in what its fans think is a weak football conference.  See the hypocrisy?

And Clemson?  Please.  At least Florida State was dominant 10 years ago.  Clemson has not beaten Big East schools in bowl games two years in a row.  Somehow, making several million dollars a year more than West Virginia and South Florida did not translate to wins on the field.

The Confidential is not suggesting that these schools cannot make a few million dollars by timing a move right.  But any fan of those schools thinking that their athletic fortunes will somehow change is just not paying attention.  Enjoy your extra money.  But don’t be surprised if the product on the field is not any better.  Money doesn’t make Penn State basketball or Indiana football relevant.

It’s just an excuse.  A lame one.

Mel Kiper’s Latest Mock Draft

ESPN’s NFL Draft guru, Mel Kiper, has issued a mock draft that goes two rounds deep–63 projected selections.  The draft is very heavy on ACC players.

Kiper has the first ACC player off the board in pick #11, with Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College to Kansas City:

Kuechly is a rare talent at linebacker — instinctive, explosive, able to make plays from sideline to sideline, but very sound in reading plays into the backfield and making stops. Kansas City has a need here, and Kuechly is a safe pick, a guy who can get on the field early and pick up the nuances of the NFL game right away. A tackling machine at linebacker, he’ll make any defense better.

At #12, Kiper goes right back to the ACC with Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina, to Seattle:

Even if Kuechly is still on the board, it would be tough for Seattle to pass on perhaps the safest 4-3 DE option available. Coples has prototypical size, can play every down as a pass-rusher and has a solid arsenal of moves to get to opposing quarterbacks, but with the size and discipline to be a force against the run. Seattle can’t go wrong here with either the top LB or DE available. This defense is close to being considered among the NFL’s finest.

At #18, rapidly rising Chander Jones, DE, Syracuse, is projected to go to San Diego:

Listed as a defensive end at Syracuse, Jones has the talent, upside and a great frame to make the move to OLB in a pass-rushing role. He’s still a little raw, but the instincts are there and offensive linemen have a really tough time getting their hands on him. Could blossom into a star for the Chargers.

At #30, San Francisco goes for offense with Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech:

Hill is the biggest home run threat in the draft when you combine his speed and size, and it’s no secret the 49ers need some help at wide receiver, even with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. He’ll need an adjustment period as he gets used to doing more in terms of scheme than he was asked at Georgia Tech, but he’s the kind of weapon this offense needs to expand.

Pretty interesting first round–not a single player from Miami, Florida State, Clemson, or Virginia Tech.

Here are Kiper’s second round projections:

Round 2
Pick Team Player Position School

42 Miami Andre Branch DE Clemson
A great fit in Miami’s adjusted scheme, Branch offers late-first-round value at this spot.

46 Philadelphia Zach Brown LB North Carolina
A great athlete who can fill a big need at linebacker for the Eagles. Even with DeMeco Ryans, they need help.

51 Philadelphia (from Ariz) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
My top tight end for much of the year, Allen didn’t test well, but he’s there on tape.

60 Baltimore Terrell Manning LB N.C. State
They lost another good OLB this offseason, and Manning makes sense as a reinforcement.

63 New York Giants David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
They lose Brandon Jacobs, but Wilson will bring some power of his own, with a lot more explosiveness.

So Kiper sees nine ACC players going in the first two rounds.  Still nobody from Miami or Florida State though.  That is pretty shocking really.

Football Spring Practice Updates

It is April.  That means that the college football season is just five months away.  In fact, August practices begin in… doing the math… four months.  Anyway, here are some snippets from what is taking place across the ACC.

In Miami, Al Golden is trying to toughen up the Hurricanes.  He implemented the “U Tough” program to get the kids into the gym in the offseason.  With all those 4 and 5 star kids roaming around Coral Gables, getting them focused on the gym only means bad things for the rest of the ACC.

Up north a few miles, Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher liked what he saw in the first scrimmage.  There was a lot of intensity, plus it was productive.  That does sound like a good mix.

Meanwhile, in Clemson, the first scrimmage led to only mixed reviews.  Apparently, the offense had little trouble overpowering the defense.  That will have to change.

In North Carolina State country, everyone is trying to figure out whether Mustafa Greene is still on the team.  It sure looks like just a suspension right now–it would have been easy for Tom O’Brien to just say he had been kicked off.

In Pittsburgh, three coaches in three years means that the depth charts are in flux.  The quarterback position is particularly unsettled.

ACC Basketball Rankings: February 27, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of February 27, 2012:

1Syracuse (29-1)  Syracuse went on a 26-0 run to defeat South Florida.  Syracuse gave up a 17-point lead against UConn, but still won.  This team just wins right now.

2. Duke (25-4) Duke and North Carolina have identical 25-4 records, including the same 12-2 conference record.  But Duke beat North Carolina.

3. North Carolina (25-4)  North Carolina does get a chance at revenge this Saturday against Duke.  It should be winner take all for the ACC crown.

4. Florida State (19-9Have looked vulnerable lately.  A loss to Boston College and now a loss to Miami by 16.

5. Virginia (21-7)  At 8-6 in conference, Virginia is still a few wins behind Florida State.  Still lacks a high-quality win.

6Miami (17-10)  Miami lost to Maryland earlier in the week, but rebounded nicely to take care of Florida State handily.  Needs a few more wins for March Madness to call.

7. North Carolina State (18-11).  The loss to North Carolina is excusable.  At this time of year, no excuse for losing to Clemson.

8. Clemson (13-13)  Clemson is now 7-7 in conference play.  They followed up the win over Virginia by beating Georgia Tech and North Carolina State.

9. Maryland (16-12)  After beating Miami, Maryland was primed to move up a few spots.  But then they lost to Georgia Tech.

10.  Virginia Tech (15-14)  This team has had more closes losses.  This past week was a 2-point loss to Virginia and an OT loss to Duke.

11. Pittsburgh (15-14)  Pittsburgh’s small momentum is over.  Hard to believe this team was once 13-2.

12. Wake Forest (13-15) They did beat Boston College by nearly 30.  Not a bad way to end the week.

13. Georgia Tech (10-18).  The losing streak is over.  And Georgia Tech beat a good Maryland team to accomplish that task.

14. Boston College (8-20)  Boston College had been showing some signs of life.  Losing by 29 to a sub .500 Wake Forest team is not such a sign.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

ACC Basketball Rankings: February 20, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of February 20, 2012:

1Syracuse (27-1)  With road wins at Louisville and Rutgers (a difficult place to win), Syracuse continues their all-time best season start.  Upstart South Florida visits on Wednesday.

2. Duke (23-4) A very good win for the Blue Devils over North Carolina State.  Boston College, however, did not put up much of a fight at all.

3. North Carolina (23-4)  Challenging week ahead for the Tar Heels, with road trips to North Carolina State and Virginia.

4. Florida State (19-7Florida State got back to its winning ways against North Carolina State.  Duke visits on Thursday.

5. Virginia (20-7)  Virginia embarrassed Maryland on Saturday.  The Terps are used to embarrassment, having fired Ralph Friedgen and replaced him Randy Edsall.

6. North Carolina State (18-9).  Very tough week with losses to Duke and Florida State.  And next up is North Carolina.

7.  Miami (16-9)  Miami did the expected–losing to North Carolina and defeating Wake Forest.

8. Maryland (15-11)  Really outplayed by Virginia on Saturday.  Looking squarely at the NIT, barring a stretch run.

9.  Virginia Tech (15-12)  Two wins on the week for Virginia Tech, sandwiched around a loss by 1 point at Florida State.  A good week overall.

10.  Clemson (13-13)  A great win over Virginia moves Clemson up to 10.

11. Pittsburgh (15-12)  Pitt is back to losing often.

12. Boston College (8-19)  Boston College can keep its edge over Wake Forest by beating the Demon Deacons on Saturday.

13. Wake Forest (12-15) Wake Forest got another conference win–but it was against cellar-dweller Georgia Tech.

14. Georgia Tech (9-17).  Georgia Tech continues to lose.  The less said the better.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

ACC Basketball Rankings: February 13, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of February 13, 2012:

1Syracuse (25-1)  It took overtime for Syracuse to beat Georgetown, but the Orange pulled away from UConn.  Up next is their nemesis: Louisville.

2. Duke (21-4)  A buzzer beater is still a win.  Duke was able to beat North Carolina on the road and then handle Maryland at home.Looked dominant in wins over Wake Forest and Maryland.  Next up?  Duke and Virginia.

3. North Carolina (21-4)  The loss to Duke was a disappointment.  The Tar Heels rebounded nicely in a win against Virginia.

4. Florida State (17-7Florida State is handling the good teams.  Unfortunately, it has been Clemson and Boston College that tripped them up.

5. Virginia (19-5)  The loss to the Tar Heels was not unexpected.  A road trip to Clemson awaits.

6. North Carolina State (18-7)  North Carolina State is making a nice run at the Big Dance.  The problem is that its games this week are against Duke (away) and Florida State (home).

7.  Miami (15-8)  Miami followed up the Duke win with a win over Virginia Tech.  But Florida State was too much for the Hurricanes.

8. Maryland (14-10)  Maryland is running short on opportunities to get the wins.  This week is Boston College (home) and Virginia (away).  The .500 weeks are not getting it done.

9. Pittsburgh (15-11)  The win over Villanova has faded.  The Panthers followed that up with road losses to USF and Seton Hall.

10.  Clemson (12-12)  Clemson split the week again, losing to Maryland and crushing Wake Forest.

11.  Virginia Tech (14-11)  The conference games have destroyed this team.  They finally had some luck against Boston College with a last second-win.

12. Boston College (8-17)  The win over Florida State has to be worth sliding up a few slots.  And they almost nipped Virginia Tech on the road.

13. Wake Forest (11-14) Not only is Wake Forest losing, they are getting blown out.  That is not going to get it done.

14. Georgia Tech (9-15)  Georgia Tech continues to struggle.  This season will end in disappointment, unfortunately.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

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