The Confidential

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ACC Football Rankings: November 21, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 21, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–At 10-1, Virginia Tech has to slide ahead of 9-2 Clemson, despite the head-to-head result.  The Hokies have simply played better since that game.

2. Clemson–Had the Tigers lost in overtime, maybe they would have stuck at #1.  But Clemson had played with fire for too long to allow the head-to-head result keep them at #1.

3. Virginia--London has done a great job with this team.  Given that Virginia has beaten Georgia Tech, the nod goes to Virginia.  Huge game this week against rival Va Tech.

4. Georgia Tech–At 8-3, the Yellow Jackets have the advantage over 7-4 Florida State.  However, this may not last beyond the upcoming game against Georgia.

5. Florida State–Inexplicable collapse against Virginia.  Florida State certainly plays a tough schedule, but a few too many losses to get the benefit of the doubt.

6. Miami–the Florida tour continued with a win–albeit not entirely impressive offensively–over South Florida.  The Hurricanes are skipping a bowl this year, making this week’s game against Boston College the finale.

7 (tie). Wake Forest, North Carolina, North Carolina State– At 6-5, these teams are simply not distinguishable.  Perhaps this week will help clarify things.

10.  Pittsburgh–did not play this week, but gets the edge over reeling Syracuse.  Huge game this week against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl.

11.  Syracuse–did not play this week, but managed to lose its starting free safety to suspension.  The Orange get injured Cincy this week, before Pitt next week.

12.  DukePlayed Georgia Tech tough.  Duke is far from an easy win for anyone. The Blue Devils still get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–played Notre Dame very tough before falling.  Despite the record, Boston College finished pretty strong.

14. Maryland–has this team quit on its coach?  Does anyone even care?  Poor Maryland.


Post-Games Review of the ACC Football Predictions for this Past Week

ANYONE can make predictions… few are willing to face the music afterwards.  The Confidential turns directly towards the orchestra… and faces the fact that picking chalk in November is a dangerous game.  A woeful performance.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

The Confidential started the week strong.  Sure, the margin was off significantly as Va Tech’s 24-7 lead was narrowed to a final of 24-21.  But the Hokies took care of business, as they were supposed to.  The Hokies control their own destiny now–they are two wins away from a BCS game.

Prediction: Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

The Hokies took care of business, but Clemson did not show up.  The score was actually close, but it was a Wolfpack blowout instead, as NC State defeated Clemson 37-13.  Any lingering shred of Clemson making it to the title game against LSU evaporated in less than 24 hours.  Losing narrowly, as several top 10 teams did, would have been bad enough. 

Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17

Georgia Tech also took care of business.  More surprising, however, is that Duke’s offense was able to put up 31 points on Georgia Tech.  But, again, at one point the score was 31-17.  Ultimately, the Blue Devils rallied but came up short in a 38-31 loss.  With the win, Georgia Tech moved to 8-3.

Prediction: Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

When The Confidential is on, the Confidential is on.  Prediction the win over collapsing Maryland was not hard.  But Wake Forest beat Maryland 31-10, making this an almost perfect prediction.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

While Maryland is busy collapsing, Boston College is busy showing that it has life.  The Eagles’ defense came to play against Notre Dame, holding them to 16 points.  Unfortunately, the offense did about what was expected–only putting up 14 points.  In the end, that makes this a Notre Dame win, 16-14.

Prediction: South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

The Confidential had expected these teams to play football.  Instead, they played international football–what we know as soccer.  How else to explain a 6-3 final score in a 60 minute college football game?  Kudos to Miami for being the Florida team to win and become bowl eligible.  Al Golden is doing good things in Miami.

Prediction: Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

Wow.  One of the most amazing finishes to a football game that anyone will ever see.  And not because of good things.  First, Florida State throws an ill-advised pass to the sideline–but not out-of-bounds–that allows time to run out before a FG can be attempted.  Second, after review determines that the pass was incomplete (a correct ruling, by the way), Florida State gets to try that field goal.  Third, as they are lining up for the field goal, the offensive line moves.  Fourth, the referees rule that the Virginia defensive line caused them to move–meaning the kick moves five yards closer.  At that point, it was as if both teams were trying to lose.  Fifth, and finally, Florida State “won” the battle of the quest to lose by missing the field goal.  Final score–Virginia 14, Florida State 13.

Final tally: The Confidential missed 3 games (NC State, Virginia, Miami).  That’s a 4-3 result.  Not nearly good enough.


Clemson Wastes Opportunity, Falls to North Carolina State

Earlier today, The Confidential noted that the Oklahoma State loss could be a boon for the ACC, including the potential–however slim–in playing LSU for the national title.  Sure, several things would have to go the ACC’s way, but that all became moot when Clemson decided not to show up at North Carolina State, losing 37-13.  Well, so much for that.

I suppose it is possible for Virginia Tech to once again carry the banner for the ACC.  If Virginia Tech can beat Virginia and then win its rematch against Clemson, then it would represent the ACC in a BCS bowl with a 12-1 record.  In fact, Va Tech would probably be ranked in the top 5 in the BCS standings at that point.  But Virginia Tech just doesn’t have the same opportunity as Clemson to put together an elite body of work.  Clemson was the ACC’s best hope for a national title opportunity.  Very disappointing.

Of course, the way Clemson played today, there is little reason to suspect that Clemson would have acquitted itself well against LSU.  It is one thing to lose on a missed field goal (Boise State, Oklahoma State) or in overtime (Alabama, Oklahoma State).  It is another to get drubbed by 24 against a team that just lost to Boston College.  The Georgia Tech loss was bad enough.

The question that begs is when–nay, whether–the ACC is going to start being merely “better than the Big East” in football.  The Confidential remains persuaded that only Florida State and Miami have the program dynamics to allow an ACC team to compete with the big boys, such as Alabama and LSU.  Of course, the big boys just a few years ago were Ohio State and Texas.  They have fallen on hard times recently.  And before that, Tennessee, Michigan and USC were big boys.  It appears that college football has become a sport of mini-dynasties with cycles.  Perhaps an ACC team break through and rise to that level.

For now, it remains more of the same.  The ACC rarely embarrasses itself on the football field.  However, it just isn’t doing enough to get anyone to notice, much less care.  Clemson could have changed that this year.  That chance ended today.

Oklahoma St. Loss Opens Door For ACC

While not an Atlantic Coast Conference game, the ACC was greatly benefited by the result of last night’s Oklahoma State-Iowa State game.  As you likely know by now, the #2 Cowboys were upset by Iowa St. in double overtime, 37-31.  Oklahoma State was not merely #2 in the polls, it was #2 in the BCS standings.  So this loss has ramifications well beyond the programs involved.

Right now, LSU is the only school that controls its own destiny.  It has games against Mississippi, Arkansas, and in the SEC title game.  If it wins out, it will play for the national title. After LSU, there are a bunch of one loss schools that are hoping to win out and also play in that game:

  • Oklahoma State.  With a loss to Iowa State–even in overtime–one has to think that Oklahoma State is out of the mix.  Iowa State is not the type of loss that will impress the pollsters.  In addition, they have yet to play Oklahoma.  Also, the Big XII does not have a title game this year.  So it is doubtful that Oklahoma State can get back into the mix.
  • Oklahoma is actually sitting in a better position than Oklahoma State.  At #5 in the BCS standings, Oklahoma has games against Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State.  They also defeated Florida State on the road.  If Oklahoma wins out, they only have to move up a few spots in the BCS standings.  Finally, Oklahoma is the type of school that pollsters would love to see play LSU.
  • Alabama and Oregon are interesting options.  They sit about Oklahoma and would certainly seem to have first crack at LSU.  The problem here is that both have already lost to LSU.  It is doubtful that the pollsters have any great zeal to vote for a rematch in the national title game.  If there is no choice–so be it.  Not helping either school’s cause is a relatively weak closing schedule.
  • Arkansas is interesting.  At #6 in the BCS standings, they can throw a wrench into everyone’s plans.  After Mississippi St., they play LSU.  Arkansas’s only loss is to Alabama.  So if Arkansas beats LSU, that means that a perfect 1-1 round robin of victories between the three schools confuses the BCS standings.  However, if LSU loses, the chaos will be at maximum power.  This whole exercise is to see who would play LSU.  So we have to assume that Arkansas loses to LSU to even begin to predict how this plays out.  So that eliminates Arkansas.

Once you get past those five schools, the next two in the BCS rankings are Clemson and Virginia Tech.  If all of these schools win out, here is what the BCS standings should be going into the final week: (1) LSU, (2) Oregon, (3) Alabama, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Clemson, (6) Virginia Tech, (7) Oklahoma State, and (8) Arkansas.

Oregon’s championship game will be against a team with no more than 8 wins.  That is not likely to help their cause.

Alabama and Arkansas will not play.  Instead, LSU would face Georgia.  Again, it has to be assumed that LSU will win out. The bottom line is that Alabama and Arkansas will be deprived of an opportunity to play that all-important one more game.

Although it will not be a conference game, Oklahoma will play Oklahoma State.  Assuming Oklahoma wins, that would be a good win for them.

Clemson will play Virginia Tech, with both sitting at 11-1.

If that situation unfolds, it is not difficult to envision the ACC champion at 12-1 moving past Oklahoma and Oregon.  This is especially true if Clemson is the team that wins out.  Compare the wins by the various teams:

  • If Clemson wins the ACC title at 12-1: Florida State, Virginia Tech (twice), Auburn, and South Carolina.
  • If Oklahoma wins out: Florida State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
  • If Oregon wins out: Stanford, USC
  • If Alabama wins out: Arkansas, Penn State, Auburn
  • If Virginia Tech wins out: Clemson (split), Virginia

If you go by great wins, Clemson looks pretty good.  If a voter really parses out the schedules, it should come down to Oklahoma or Clemson battling to see who plays LSU.  Either game would draw national interest–maximized further by avoiding a rematch–and feature top-notch 12-1 teams.

Will we get there?  Who knows?  But Clemson has the ability to take advantage of this loss and inject themselves back into the national title picture.  And that is good news for the ACC.

 

Virginia Tech Holds Off North Carolina: 24-21

Virginia Tech moved one step closer to the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game by defeating visiting North Carolina.  The #8 ranked Hokies jumped out to a 24-7 lead at the end of three quarters and were able to hold on to a narrower  the victory by a final score of  24-21.

With the win, Virginia Tech is in full command of the ACC’s Coastal division.  If Virginia loses to Florida State, which is far from unlikely, Virginia Tech will be assured of a matchup against Clemson for the right to go to the Orange Bowl.  If Clemson wins this week, the potential for a matchup of two 11-1 teams remains alive.

The tough question is whether a disinterested ACC fan should root for Virginia or Florida State:

  • If Virginia wins, this will set up a very exciting Virginia-Virginia Tech matchup to determine who plays Clemson.  Of course, if Virginia wins out, that would mean a 10-3 ACC representative.  But if Virginia Tech beats Virginia, a Clemson-Virginia Tech game could feature two top 10 teams sitting at 11-1.  That would get major national press.
  • Of course, if Florida State wins, the ACC will see one of its football “kings” take another step towards getting back to royalty.  As long as Virginia does not upset Virginia Tech, the ACC would begin to show the nation that it is ready to claim football relevance.

But none of this debate happens if the Hokies had fallen last night.  So, regardless of what happens in the future, the credit must go to Virginia Tech for not losing to North Carolina and keeping this debate alive.  While the game might not have been pretty, the route to a BCS bowl is ordinarily not full of only masterpieces.

 

ACC Basketball Recap: Games of November 16, 2011

The ACC was undefeated on the season heading into the games of November 16, 2011.  The Confidential analyzed same at length.  Now it is debatable whether the ACC remains undefeated.

To be sure, the 12 teams currently in the ACC are undefeated at 26-0.  However, we have waffled as to whether to include the future teams, Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  With all the conference realignment, schools and conferences should be looking out for long-term interests, not the present.

And then Pitt had to go and lose to Long Beach State last night, 86-76.  In fact, CBS reports as follows regarding Pitt’s dominance at home in recent years:

Casper Ware scored a career-high 28 points, James Ennis added 19, and Larry Anderson had 12 points and seven assists for the 49ers (2-0), who emphatically ended Pitt’s 58-game nonconference home winning streak.

* * *

Pitt drew within six points on a few occasions but each time the 49ers answered to become the first non-Big East team to beat the Panthers at home since Bucknell in 2005.

* * *

Pitt came in unbeaten in 80 home nonconference games in November and December at “the Pete.”

In fact, the article did not even bother to analyze just how dominant Pitt has been at the Petersen Events Center in conference games.  Few Big East schools have been successful in that venue.  All in all, a very impressive win for Long Beach State.  Conversely, Pitt’s top 10 ranking is now seriously in jeopardy.

As noted above, the current ACC teams “held serve” though:

  • North Carolina State moved to 3-0 by holding off always-pesky Princeton, 60-58.  NC State held Princeton to under 40% from the field and outrebounded the Tigers 40-24.  And yet they trailed at the half and won by 2 points.  Still, a win is a win.
  • Florida State also moved to 3-0, defeating visiting Stetson, 79-66.  The Confidential predicted good things from Florida State this year.  Taking care of business in November is a great way to start.
  • In other games, Wake Forest moved to 2-0 by beating Georgia Southern, 81-72.  And Clemson defeated The Citadel by a comfortable 73-50 margin.

With these four wins, the ACC remains the only conference whose current teams are undefeated.  With Pitt’s loss, the Big East drops to 33-3.  The Big XII and the Big 10 still have only two conference losses.

ACC Football Predictions for November 19, 2011

After a 5-1  week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Virginia Tech (9-1) hosting North Carolina (6-4)

The easy pick here is Virginia Tech.  Look at where the game is being played.  Look at the records.  Look at the general directions the teams are headed.  Ignore the fact that North Carolina beat Virginia Tech the last time the teams met in Blacksburg.  That last one is bit scary.  But this is game that Virginia Tech needs to control its destiny.  And the Confidential does not see this North Carolina team pulling off the upset.  Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

North Carolina State (5-5) hosting Clemson (9-1)

Clemson has been making it interesting lately.  And they are surely riding high with their berth in the ACC Championship game now assured.  There is certainly a risk of Clemson looking past the team that just lost to Boston College.  And then there is “any given Saturday.”  But the visitors just have too much talent.  Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

Duke (3-7) hosting Georgia Tech (7-3)

Georgia Tech is a hard team to figure out.  They have lost 3 of 4 games.  But that is sandwiched around giving Clemson its only loss.  Georgia Tech is only 2-2 on the road.  Meanwhile, in Duke’s last two home games, they lost to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech by a combined 5 points.  Of course, Florida State and Stanford had their way in that same location.  This is a game where nobody should be shocked if Duke pulls the upset, but The Confidential does not see it.  Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17.

Wake Forest (5-5) hosting Maryland (2-8)

Wake Forest is a team that is two bounces away from being 7-3.  And they have struggled at home against superior foes, such as Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.  Maryland, of course, is not a superior foe.  In fact, Maryland’s season seems to be spiraling out of control.  While nothing is impossible, a Maryland win here would be simply shocking.  Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

Notre Dame (7-3) hosting Boston College (3-7)

The Notre Dame ACC tour continues.  So far, Notre Dame has beaten Wake Forest and Maryland in ACC country.  For this one, Notre Dame gets to host it.  While Boston College has won 2 out of 3, this one still looks like a game that Notre Dame will have to lose for itself.  While it has certainly shown the ability to lose games by untimely turnovers in great quantity, it seems unlikely here.  Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

South Florida (5-4) hosting Miami (5-5)

This is a battle for bowl eligibility.  Miami does have the benefit of hosting Boston College next week, while South Florida has two conference games remaining.  Miami is likely to be down after a tough loss on the road at Florida State.  Meanwhile, South Florida has some momentum back after righting the ship at Syracuse.  BJ Daniels has not been the problem this year.  This is bigger than a bowl game for the Bulls.   South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

GAME OF THE WEEK

Florida State (7-3) hosting Virginia (7-3).  Virginia has already won at Miami.  But if you look a little deeper, you’ll see that Virginia’s wins are not overly impressive.  Sure, the win over Georgia Tech was impressive.  But this game is, by far, Virginia’s toughest challenge.  At least until next week.  Meanwhile, Florida State seems to have righted the ship.  These are the games that will dictate whether Florida State returns to being football elite or will continue to be mired in mediocrity.  The old Florida State would see 10-3 as the only possible way to salvage the season and prepare for a 14-0 run next year.  Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 15, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson has already defeated Virginia Tech once.  At Virginia Tech.  While the knee-jerk reaction is to think that Virginia Tech gets the better of Clemson a second-time around, The Confidential does not believe that Virginia Tech has the offense to keep up with Clemson.  As for the Big East Champion, Cincinnati without Zach Collaros is a lot different than Cincinnati with him.  They may not lose out, but they will lose one or two.  West Virginia is primed to step in–and they have the head-to-head edge over Rutgers.

 

ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia.   

 

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

 

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Arizona State.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Louisville.

 

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v Vanderbilt

 

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v San Diego State

 

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Miami v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

ACC Football Rankings: November 14, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 14, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 9-1 with a victory over Wake Forest, Clemson guaranteed itself a spot in the conference championship game.  From here, Clemson needs to win out to show that it deserves the top 10 ranking.  The conference NEEDS Clemson at 11-1.

2. Virginia Tech–In beating Georgia Tech, Va Tech has solidified itself of #2.  With games remaining against talented North Carolina and rival/rolling Virginia, it will not be easy for the Hokies to finish 11-1.  The dream matchup of 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Va Tech is still alive though.  While a rematch, this would capture attention.

3. Georgia Tech–Of the three 7-3 teams, The Confidential will give Georgia Tech the nod here.  It beat Clemson… giving it the best win of the bunch.  While Virginia has the head-to-head advantage, Virginia also has the head scratching losses to NC State and Southern Mississippi.

4. Florida State–This young team is rolling now.  With the 3-game losing streak a mere blip in the rear-view mirror, these kids appear to be coming together at the right time.  Head-to-head matchup with Virginia will tell us a lot.

5. Virginia–At 7-3, Virginia could fairly be ranked #3 or #4 here.  But The Confidential will require Virginia to prove it on the field first.  As noted above, the win over Georgia Tech is offset by some poor losses.  A win over Florida State would vault them to #3.

6. Miami–held their own against a hot Florida State team.  On the road.  While an argument could be made for North Carolina here, Miami showed that it belonged here by beating North Carolina on the road.

7. North Carolina– At 6-4, North Carolina gets a huge test against Virginia Tech this week.  Winning at the Hokies is rarely expected, but the Tarheels need to show that they can compete to maintain this slot.

8.  Wake Forest– So many close games for Wake Forest.  Playing Clemson to the wire is just another example of same.

9.  Syracuse–after three losses in a row, it is tempting to drop Syracuse to double-digits.  However, they still have wins over West Virginia and Wake Forest.  The latter is something that North Carolina State could not do.  A week off before taking on Cincinnati.

10.  North Carolina State– Losing to Boston College pretty much sums up this enigma of a team.  With Maryland coming up after the Clemson game, NC State can still get bowl eligible.

11. Pittsburgh— Beating Louisville to get to 5-5 made it tempting to slide Pittsburgh up a few notches.  With games @ West Virginia and hosting Syracuse to finish the regular season, this will be resolved on the field.

12.  DukePlayed Virginia tough before fading.  The Blue Devils get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–the win over NC State provided some good news for the fan base.  Upcoming games against Notre Dame and Miami may not make continued good news a safe bet.

14. Maryland- as if it couldn’t get worse, the drubbing by Notre Dame also featured a season-ending injury to Danny O’Brien.  At 2-8, it is difficult to see this team winning either of its two remaining games–both of which are on the road.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

And here comes HOOPS!

The 2011-2012 basketball season is officially underway and the ACC is off to a good start.

North Carolina shook of a slow start against Michigan State and took step one towards what everyone expects to be a Final Four appearance.  In the (sorta) inaugural Carrier Classic, the Tarheels defeated the game Michigan State Spartans, 67-55.  With the national spotlight, including a Super Bowl-esque pregame show featuring President Barack Obama, North Carolina did what it was supposed to do.  And you can never take a Tom Izzo coached team lightly.  As usual, the Spartans worked hard on the boards and defensive end.  All in all, a huge win for North Carolina.  They look like they are prepared to live up to the hype.

At the other end of the spectrum, Duke barely defeated Belmont at home, winning 76-77.  Belmont is always one of those teams that you are tempted to pick in March to pull an upset.  Looks like we’ll be seeing them in that spot again this year.  If you watched the game, you know that the dagger was a long three pointer by Andre Dawkins to give Duke a 75-71 edge.  With the shot clock winding down, to make it a 2-possession game with 20 seconds to go is huge.  While it makes you wonder whether Duke is top 10 material at this point, the bottom line is that they won.

And the rest of the ACC held serve as Florida State, North Carolina State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Miami, and Georgia Tech all won.  Even future Big East member Pittsburgh won.

You cannot ask for anything more than 9-0.

 

 

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