The Confidential

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Archive for the tag “Football”

07 Feb 2012

Playoffs for College Football?

The Big 10–long an adversary to any type of college football playoff–appears to be coming around.  In a recent article, it was noted that more and more Big 10 leaders are opening up to the possibility of a playoff.

To be sure, the contemplated playoff would involve 4 teams.  And two of these teams would play at their home stadium.  That this would help the Big 10 is obvious.  If a Big 10 school like Ohio State or Penn State made it that far, they would get to host a team in potentially snowy conditions.  Advantage, Big 10.

That being said, if this is the only way to get to a four-team playoff, then so be it.  Of course, the Confidential is far from persuaded that a 4-team playoff is the best solution.  Instead, it will likely just lead to complaints about how:

  • The system is unfair because Team A was a home team and Team B should have been.
  • The 5th team was so much better than the 3rd and 4th teams.
  • The system is pointless because “Undefeated MidMajor Program” went undefeated and was left out.

There is no perfect solution.  But rest assured that the powers that be are noticing those aspects of the present system that appear to be failing.  Bowl attendance is down.  Viewership is, at best, flat.  More recently, the idea of limiting bowl-eligibility to 7 wins was floated.  It sure looks like change is around the corner.  Hopefully, it will be something that at least the majority of football fans consider an improvement.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , ,
03 Feb 2012

ACC Scheduling Announced

The Atlantic Coast Conference has issued its scheduling decisions.  In a disappointment to the Confidential, the ACC has eschewed the potential for a logical North-South split in football.  Instead, Syracuse will be placed in the Atlantic and Pittsburgh will be placed in the Coastal.

This means the following divisions will apply to football:

Atlantic:

  • Clemson
  • Florida State
  • Wake Forest
  • NC State
  • Boston College
  • Maryland
  • Syracuse

Coastal:

  • Virginia Tech
  • Georgia Tech
  • Miami
  • Duke
  • North Carolina
  • Virginia
  • Pittsburgh

The league further announced as follows: “When Pitt and Syracuse join the ACC, the league will play a nine-game conference schedule. The format will consist of each team playing all six in its division each year, plus its primary crossover partner each year and two rotating opponents from the opposite division. This six-year cycle allows each team to play each divisional opponent and its primary crossover partner six times (three home and three away) while also playing each rotating crossover opponent two times (one home and one away).”

For basketball, the ACC will stick with one large division and move to an 18-game schedule:

When Pitt and Syracuse join, each school will have one primary partner (Boston College and Syracuse; Clemson and Georgia Tech; Duke and North Carolina; Florida State and Miami; Maryland and Pitt; NC State and Wake Forest; Virginia and Virginia Tech).

The scheduling model will be based on a three-year cycle during which teams will play every league opponent at least once with the primary partners playing home and away annually while the other 12 rotate in groups of four: one year both home and away; one year at home only; and one year away only. Over the course of the three-year cycle primary partners play a total of six times and all other conference opponents play four times.

The basketball plan certainly makes sense.

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Baseball, Football and tagged , , , ,
01 Feb 2012
1 Comment

Signing Day Update

According to MaxPreps, the ACC had five teams pull in top-25 recruiting classes.  Most of the school names on the list are the ones that you would expect–Alabama, Texas, Ohio State, and Michigan.  And it is no different with the ACC teams that made the list–especially the top 4 of Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech.  Impressively, Virginia cracked the list as well.

Florida State edged out Miami to have the 6th best overall class and the best class in the ACC.  Both schools were probably disappointed to see Florida take the 5 spot ahead of both of them.  For Florida State, it is yet another great class to build on its young foundation and bright future.  But, at #7, Miami showed that the off-field issues are not going to stop the talent from flowing in.

At #11, Clemson took advantage of its nice season.  Again, however, the Tigers finished behind in-state rival South Carolina in these rankings. Even the disappointing (and then some) Orange Bowl performance did not prevent the class from being outstanding.

Virginia Tech landed in at #16, which is pretty much what the Hokies are expected to do most years.  Perhaps more surprising is that in-state rival, Virginia, cracked the top 25.  After a great rebound season under new coach Mike London, the Cavaliers look to challenge Virginia Tech each season.

Obviously, these rankings do not mean much in the big picture.  Texas, Ohio State, and Notre Dame have all had issues in recent years converting top 5 recruiting classes into top 5 seasons.  But it’s all fans have to go by right now.

So congratulations to these five schools and their new recruits.  And congrats to all the future ACC players that signed letters of intent today.

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , ,
18 Jan 2012

ACC Players in the Mel Kiper Preview

Mel Kiper has issued his “first look at how the 2012 NFL Draft could play out.”  See here.  The ACC is fairly well represented in this first mock-up of the draft.

Here are the ACC players included:

  • With the #7 pick, Kiper has the Jacksonville Jaguars opting for Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina.  He sees need at wide receiver and in the pass rush, with Coples fitting the bill for the latter.
  • With the #15 pick, Kiper has the Philadelphia Eagles selecting ACC defensive player of the year Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College.  The Eagles obviously need defensive help.  Might as well draft a guy who was an Eagle in college.
  • With the #21 pick, Kiper has the Cincinnati Bengals opting for another underclassman, Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (Fla.).  Kiper believes that the Bengals need an explosive compliment to Cedric Benson.
  • With the #23 pick, Kiper has the Detroit Lions selecting Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina.  There is no dispute that the Lions need defensive help to go along with that great offense.  With Suh and Fairley, the defensive line is set.
  • With the #29 pick, Kiper has the New York Giants selecting Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida St.  Kiper sees the offensive line as a need area for a team that likes to establish the run.
  • With the #32 pick, Kiper has the New England Patriots selecting Andre Branch, LB, Clemson.  Kiper anticipates a position change from defensive end to linebacker.

All in all, that is 6 ACC players out of 32.  There are likely to be plenty of familiar faces on the first night of this year’s draft.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
12 Jan 2012

1,000 Reasons Why It Will Not Work–But Here is a Radical Plan for College Football’s Post-Season

Look, line up to tell the Confidential the reasons why this Radical College Football post-season proposal will not work.  But what proposal WILL work?  What solution will keep the conferences, schools, bowls, NCAA, network and fans happy?  The problem is not that a solution cannot be designed.  The problem is that every “solution” is going to be greeted with some sort of opposition.  The problem is that college football is not basketball AND that you cannot design a plan in advance that will accommodate the unique regular season that is taking place.  Accordingly, the Confidential presents its Radical Plan for College Football’s Postseason (the plan).

Under the plan, there will have to be some significant changes.  Instead of trying to design a strict 2,4, 8, 12, or 16 team playoff, the Championship Committee would be vested with the power to determine exactly how the national championship should be played out.  The emphasis would be on ensuring that all undefeated teams at least have the chance to decide it on the field.  The secondary emphasis would be to ensure that as few games as possible are used to reach a national champion, so as not to devalue the regular season.  The third emphasis would be maintaining the traditional tie-ins to the bowl games to the maximum extent possible.  And that is that.  Nothing more, nothing less.

First, the Championship Game (CCG) should be moved to Martin Luther King Day.  Frank the Tank has a great write up on the logic of using that date.

Second, all the BCS bowls should be moved back to January 1st.  Once upon a time, that was a veritable feast of college football.  A fan would plan on going from Cotton to Rose to Orange to Fiesta throughout the day, with a few other games sprinkled in for good measure.  It is easier to carve out a day than it is to carve out the night for several straight days.  This is just the way things are today.  Plus, think of March Madness.  You don’t plan to watch all day, but you get sucked in by the staggered start times and end up enjoying the finish to multiple games.  The networks can just plan on having more commercial value in the second half of bowl games.

Third, College Football needs a Championship Committee to decide who “gets in.”  Most other sports have one to decide who plays in the post-season tournament.  The problem is that College Football is unique in that every regular season game is an event.  Having an 8, 12, or 16 team playoff WILL detract from that.  It just will.  The beauty of college football is that every game matters.  The goal is to keep that.

Fourth, here is where it gets radical.  The Championship Committee is not going to be limited to just deciding who plays, but deciding HOW it plays out.  The Championship Committee will make the final decisions using the BCS Standings issued immediately after the weekend of the conference championship games to make the final plan.  At its disposal will be all of the bowl games, plus at least two non-BCS bowl games.

For example:

  • If there are two undefeated teams, then the Championship Committee will designate those two teams to play in the CCG.  From there, the other BCS bowls just proceed as in the current format.
  • If there is only one undefeated team, the Championship Committee will designate the next two best teams– using the BCS standings– to play for the right to play the bona fide undefeated team in the CCG.  If the two teams that will play in the preliminary game represent both the Big 10 and the Pac 12, the game is played in the Rose Bowl.  If not, the host bowl game is determined by BCS ranking, with the higher ranked team being the host team based on traditional bowl game tie-ins.  The Big East, Notre Dame, and all other conferences would be considered Cotton Bowl or Fiesta Bowl teams, depending on whether the Big XII wanted the Fiesta Bowl or Cotton Bowl.
  • In other situations, the Championship Committee will really have to earn its work.  It can work within the bowl system to create a 4-team “playoff.”  In all circumstances, any “playoff” will be skewed so that the Rose Bowl features a Big-10/Pac-12 matchup.  Beyond that, the Championship Committee would seek to have the bowls feature their traditional tie-ins to the extent possible.  ANY undefeated teams must be included in the 4-team playoff,regardless of BCS ranking.
  • In the rare scenario where there are 5 or 6 undefeated teams somehow, the Championship Committee would be able to have those teams engage in a pre-preliminary round in December to get down to 4 undefeated teams.
  • One tough situation is what to do with a 13-0 Ball State.  If the only other undefeated team is, say, an SEC school, an argument could be made that the fairest result is to just have those teams play.  If LSU had beaten a 13-0 MAC team this year, would the result have been any less valid?  If Ball State wins, it is the national champion.  It would be the only school to go undefeated AND would have beaten the team that beat Alabama and Arkansas.  Would they be “better” than Alabama?  Probably not.  But was Jim Valvano’s famous North Carolina State team better than Houston?  Were they better than everyone else that year?  No and no.  But it is what it is.
  • A second tough situation is where you have two undefeated teams, but neither are even close to #1.  See 2008.  In that circumstance, a 4-team playoff with the top 2 teams in the BCS standings will solve the problem.
  • The third tough situation is when you have no undefeated teams.  In that scenario, you just have to create a 4-team playoff and hope it works out.

After all, there is no sense in having a 4-team playoff when only 2 or 3 teams have a valid claim to be national champions.  However, a 4-team playoff is not even good enough when there are 5 undefeated teams.  And so on.  The only time when it is clear how many games are required is immediately after the season ends.

In 2011, Alabama would have hosted Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl for the right to play LSU.

In 2010, Oregon would have hosted TCU in the Rose Bowl for the right to play Auburn.

In 2009, there were 5 undefeated teams.  Boise State would have played Cincinnati in some December bowl game for the right to play Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.  Texas would have hosted TCU in either the Fiesta Bowl or the Cotton Bowl.  The winners of the Sugar Bowl and Fiesta/Cotton Bowl would have played for the national championship.

In 2008, Florida and Oklahoma were the #1 and #2 teams, but not undefeated.  Boise State and Utah were undefeated.  So the Championship Committee would have had Florida host Boise State in the Sugar Bowl.  Oklahoma would have hosted Utah in the Fiesta/Cotton.  And the winners would have played.  While controversy would not have been escaped here, either an undefeated team would have earned the National Championship by beating two very good teams or there would be no undefeated teams left standing.  The best that you can do in some years.

Will it end controversy?  No.  If the Championship Committee is choosing between three 1-loss teams, there are going to be arguments.  But there are always arguments.  In a 4-team playoff, the 5th team is going to complain.  And so on.

What do you think?  What are some of the problems with this plan?

Posted by acaffrey in Football and tagged , ,
11 Jan 2012

First 2012 Football Rankings….

With the 2011 college football season ending about 24 hours ago, a few national writers decided to waste little time in making 2012 football rankings.  Here is a summary of how the ACC fared in those early rankings.

CBS’s Brett McMurphy provided his rankings.  The top 5 were LSU, USC, Georgia, Alabama, and Oregon.  In terms of ACC schools, here is McMurphy’s rankings and analysis:

13. Clemson: No, West Virginia did not just score again. Well, maybe they did. The Tigers were the laughingstocks of the bowl season after losing 70-33 in the Orange Bowl. This year, Clemson should be in good position to make a run as repeating as ACC champions. QB Tajh Boyd, big-play WR Sammy Watkins and RB Andre Ellington are among seven offensive returning starters. TE Dwayne Allen left early for the NFL Draft. Defensively, seven starters are back — which depending your view of the Orange Bowl performance — might or might not be a good thing. Clemson faces a pair of SEC teams (Auburn and South Carolina) in nonconference play, while the Tigers’ biggest potential pitfalls in ACC play are home against Virginia Tech and at Florida State.

15. Florida State: Based on returning talent, Florida State should probably be ranked much higher, but I’m hesitant to put the Seminoles higher after last season when FSU was arguably the nation’s most disappointing team. A top five preseason team, the Seminoles failed to even win the ACC Atlantic Division. Injuries played a part. This season the Seminoles have nine returning starters each on offense and defense. The key will be the effectiveness of QB EJ Manuel and playmakers Chris Thompson and Rashad Greene. The Seminoles’ defense, which led the ACC and ranked fourth nationally, could be even better, especially with DE Brandon Jenkins and CB Greg Reid opting to return for their senior seasons. Florida State’s toughest road trip will be to Virginia Tech, while the Seminoles get West Virginia, Florida and Clemson in Tallahassee.

19. Virginia Tech: Last year, Virginia Tech limited eight opponents to 17 points or less and the Hokies return virtually everyone from that unit, including DEs James Gayle and J.R. Collins, LBs Tariq Edwards and Jack Tyler and CB Kyle Fuller. The Hokies also get back LBs Bruce Taylor and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow and DT Antoine Hopkins, who missed all or part of last season because of injuries. RB David Wilson’s departure is a blow, but QB Logan Thomas continues to get better. The nonconference schedule is tougher than last season, featuring a pair of Big East teams (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), while the Hokies toughest ACC tests will be home against Florida State and at Clemson.

He also “considered” Georgia Tech.

Not to be outdone, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach did a top 25 as well.  The top 5 were LSU, USC, Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma.  In terms of ACC schools, here is Schlabach’s rankings and analysis:

8. Florida State Seminoles:
We’re taking the bait on the Seminoles again, even after they failed to live up to very high aspirations with a 9-4 finish in 2011. But FSU’s lofty preseason billing might have been a year premature, and injuries plagued the Seminoles throughout the season. FSU’s defense is as good as advertised and it might be even better in 2012 with nine starters coming back. Defensive end Brandon Jenkins and cornerback Greg Reid both passed up entering the NFL draft to return to school. If FSU is going to become a legitimate BCS contender, though, its offense has to be better and more explosive. The Seminoles had young skill players in 2011 and they started four freshman offensive linemen against Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl. Another concern will be replacing All-American punter Shawn Powell. FSU plays seven home games, but it will travel to Virginia Tech during ACC play.

18. Virginia Tech Hokies: If there’s one thing you can count on every season, it’s that Virginia Tech will win at least 10 games and be in contention in the ACC title race. With a new quarterback and revamped defense, the Hokies went 11-3 in 2011. Virginia Tech will have to rebuild its offense to do it again in 2012. Quarterback Logan Thomas will be back for his second season as a starter, but the Hokies won’t have record-setting tailback David Wilson, who is leaving for the NFL draft as a junior. They’re also losing four starting offensive linemen and top receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale. The good news is that as many as nine starters might be back on defense — if junior cornerback Jayron Hosley comes back. The Hokies play nonconference games at Pittsburgh and against Cincinnati at FedEx Field in Landover, Md., and they play ACC road games at Miami, North Carolina and Clemson.

22. Clemson Tigers: Tigers coach Dabo Swinney can only hope his team uses its embarrassing loss in the Orange Bowl as motivation in the offseason. Clemson won an ACC title and started 8-0, but a 2-4 slump down the stretch left some serious concerns. Quarterback Tajh Boyd should be better in his second season running offensive coordinator Chad Morris’ high-octane attack. Tailback Andre Ellington is considering jumping to the NFL draft, and junior tight end Dwayne Allen has already decided to turn pro. The Tigers also must replace four starting offensive linemen, and there isn’t a lot of depth in the trenches. Five starters must be replaced on defense, including top linebacker Andre Branch. The Tigers will open the season against Auburn in one of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game matchups and will play ACC foes Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at home.

24. NC State Wolfpack: After a 2-3 start, in which Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien was criticized for turning quarterback Russell Wilson loose, NC State rallied to win six of its last eight games, including a 31-24 victory over Louisville in the Belk Bowl. Quarterback Mike Glennon ended up being a more-than-capable replacement for Wilson, throwing for 3,054 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll be without three of his top four receivers in 2012, with wideouts T.J. Graham and Jay Smith and tight end George Bryan each departing. Seven defensive starters are expected back, but the Pack will have to rebuild the defensive line and linebacker corps. The secondary should return intact, including ball-hawking cornerback David Amerson. NC State opens the ’12 season against Tennessee in one of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game matchups and plays nonconference games against Connecticut (road) and FCS foes South Alabama (home) and The Citadel (home).

Yep, that’s 4 ACC schools in his top 25.  Not too shabby if it comes true.  After all, the ACC ended 2011 with only three ranked schools, none of them in the top 15.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
10 Jan 2012
1 Comment

ACC Divisional Breakdowns After Expansion

Much has been written or discussed regarding the anticipated divisional breakdowns in the ACC after Syracuse and Pittsburgh are added.  While the Confidential appreciates that the football-elite schools in the Southern portion of the ACC would want to avoid a geographic division, the Confidential believes that there are numerous reasons why a straight geographical breakdown is prudent.

When the Confidential discusses a geographically based breakdown, this is what the Confidential actually envisions:

  • ACC North: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Miami
  • ACC South: Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Clemson, and Florida State.

Inherent in that process is that, for football, the teams would have “locked-in” rivalries against the team directly above/below in the standings.  This would allow Miami to play Florida State every year and maintain the North Carolina-Virginia rivalry.  With a 9-game conference schedule, that would allow 2 other cross-divisional games.  With 8 games, perhaps there could be some rotation of the cross-over game to allow some variety.

The Confidential anticipates that some will argue that these divisions are not adequately balanced.  How so?  Regardless of the pedigree of Clemson and Florida State, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC flag in BCS games.  Moreover, the ACC Championship game will settle it on the field.

Also, who can say what division in a conference is going to be better?  A few years ago, the SEC East was the powerhouse, with Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia.  Now?  It is the West with LSU, Alabama, and Auburn.  These things are cyclical.

More importantly, let’s say the ACC South is way better than the North.  That just means that the winner of the South will have that much better of a strength of schedule and be appropriately battle-tested for its bowl game.  With a 2-15 record in BCS games, the ACC needs to start caring about BCS bowl-performance.

The other good thing about this division is that it is logical.  Miami has terrible attendance anyway and, as a private school, lacks the graduate bank to fill-up road stadiums.  Plus, with its Big East history, games against its former Big East foes will be logical draws.  Plus, the northern schools have ample Florida retirees to contribute to the attendance at Miami games.  And it is a destination.  If you are living in Boston or New York, a road Miami game is a vacation (perhaps even from the snow).  If you live in Atlanta?  Not quite as much.

But above all else, such as division makes logical sense.  A fan in California or Idaho or Minnesota will be able to easily tell which team belongs in what division.  Quick–are Penn State and Michigan in the same Big 10 division?  You don’t know.  Because it is not geographically based.  While ACC fans may be able to remember who is Atlantic or Coastal, the rest of the country cannot and will not keep track of it.  No need to make it confusing.

Such a division also ensures that the neighboring rivalries are preserved.  Why prevent Maryland, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Boston College from playing each other every year?  Historically, these teams played each other quite a bit.  You do not need to create these rivalries–merely resurrect them.  And what is more likely–a Pittsburgh fan driving to Syracuse or Maryland… or a Pittsburgh fan driving to North Carolina State?

In any event, the Confidential challenges anyone to explain why this system would not be better than the proposal to just plop Syracuse and Pittsburgh into one of the Atlantic or Coastal divisions already in place.  Go for it.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
07 Jan 2012

ACC Football: Early Entry Draft Update

With the ACC football season coming to a conclusion, ’tis the season for underclassmen to announce that they are foregoing the excitement of playing college football.  The dollars of the NFL, or perhaps the nickels of the CFL or AFL or any other initialed FL out there, are the lure.  For some players, they are ready and it is a smart decision.  For others, it is a head-scratcher. In any event, here is where things stand for some of the ACC’s top players.

  • ACC Player of the Year David Wilson, Virginia Tech running back, has announced that he will head to the NFL.
  • ACC Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly, Boston College linebacker, has announced that he will head to the NFL. For more on his decision, check out BC Interruption.
  • Dwayne Allen, Clemson tight end
  • Lamar Miller, Miami running back.  For more on his decision, check out The 7th Floor.
  • Brandon Washington, Miami guard
  • Jayron Hosely, Virginia Tech cornerback
  • Chandler Jones, Syracuse defensive end.  For more on his decision, check out Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician.
  • Sylvester Williams, North Carolina defensive tackle
  • Chris Givens, Wake Forest wide receiver.  For more on his decision, check out Blogger So Dear.
  • Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech wide receiver.  For more on his decision, check out From the Rumble Seat.
  • Terrell Manning, North Carolina State linebacker.  For more on his decision, check out Backing the Pack.
  • Tommy Streeter, Miami wide receiver
  • Marcus Forston, Miami defensive tackle
  • Olivier Vernon, Miami defensive end
  • Donte Paige-Moss, North Carolina defensive end.  For more on his decision, check out Carolina March.

As the above list shows, Miami stands to lose a ton of players to the NFL.  Of course, once upon a time, Miami would lose a ton of players to the NFL and simply reload.

It is difficult to envision Boston College and Syracuse not suffering on defense with the loss of their best overall players.  Wake Forest and Georgia Tech will also suffer offensively without their standout wide receivers.  But the loss of all of these guys will hurt their respective teams.  They are potential NFL players because of their talent, after all.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Jan 2012

The ACC Bowl Disaster

Yesterday, the Confidential noted that the ACC needed Miami and Florida State to return to King status soon.  As the bowl season comes to a conclusion, it is clear that something is just not right with the conference from a football standpoint.

The bowl season began with the optimism of the ACC landing two teams in BCS bowls–Clemson and Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was a surprise entrant into the Sugar Bowl and acquitted itself reasonably well in shutting down Michigan and only losing in overtime.  In many respects, Virginia Tech outplayed the Wolverines and deserved to win.  But they did not.  Another BCS loss for the ACC.

The hope on Wednesday night was that Clemson could do its part to carry the ACC by “taking care of” West Virginia in the Orange Bowl.  This is the same West Virginia team that beat 2-10 Maryland by 6 points.  The same West Virginia team that lost to Syracuse 49-23.  Clemson would have no trouble, right?

Wrong.

Instead, Clemson had one of the most embarrassing big stage performances in the history of the big stage, losing 70-33.  70 points.  35 in the second quarter.  A 99-yard fumble return.  589 yards of offense allowed.  The most points EVER scored by a team in a bowl game.  Conversely, Clemson allowed more points than any other team in bowl history has ever allowed.  And this was not to Oregon, Stanford, or Wisconsin.  This was not LSU or Alabama.  This was the West Virginia described above.  Utterly embarrassing.

According to CBS, the ACC has dropped to 1-5 in the last 6 Orange Bowl games:

ACC Champions in Orange Bowl
Year ACC Champ Result
2012 Clemson L, West Virginia 70-33
2011 Va. Tech L, Stanford 40-12
2010 Va. Tech W, Cincinnati 20-7
2009 Va. Tech L, Kansas 24-21
2008 Wake Forest L, Louisville 24-13
2007 Florida St. L, Penn State 26-23

4 different teams, the same dismal results.  In fact, according to ESPN, the ACC is now 2-13 in BCS bowl games.

In addition to the BCS games, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and North Carolina also lost their bowl games.  Fortunately, North Carolina State and Florida State won its bowl games.  That leaves the ACC at 2-6, with Pittsburgh yet to face SMU.

Wait, Florida State won its bowl game?  If you believe that the ACC needs Florida State to be leading the charge for the ACC, that is about the only good news to come out of this bowl season.  Two straight 9-win seasons.  If Florida State can take it up another level, maybe the ACC can deliver on its promise to be home to great football.  That’s the closest to good news that ACC football will have until kickoff next year.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Jan 2012
1 Comment

ACC Football: The Need for Florida State and Miami

The formula is pretty simple for the ACC.  It needs Miami and Florida State to play like kings.  It needs Virginia Tech and Clemson to be the next closes thing to a king.  And it needs a few other schools to rise up every few years and/or win impressive out-of-conference games, including bowl games.  But none of that works unless Miami and Florida State can return to something closer to the glory days.  They are the schools that need to carry the conference in football.

The Kings

Football is an elitist sport.  No matter how bad Ohio State and Florida might be, a win over those schools means a lot and a loss to these schools is respectable.  In contrast, losing to Iowa State is an unacceptable result.  Nevermind that Iowa State had the same regular season record as those schools in 2011, Oklahoma State was punished substantially for its loss to Iowa State.  Iowa State is simply not Ohio State or Florida, regardless of the record.

Once upon a time, Miami and Florida State were kings.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State went 11-1, 11-1, 10-2, 10-2, 11-2, 11-1, 12-1, 10-1-1, 10-2, 11-1, 11-1, 11-2, 12-0, and 11-2.  From 1983 to 2003, Miami had more than a dozen 10 win seasons, including three undefeated seasons. That is how you become a king–you win 10 or more games more often than not (or consecutively) for so long that people do not even know what it is like for you to not be in the top 10, much less unranked.

But that all ended in 2004, when Miami joined the ACC.  Perhaps not because of the move to the ACC.  But the move has certainly coincided with the fall from the top.  Since then, Miami has not had a 10-win season.  Florida State had one–in 2010.  Instead of playing like kings, these schools have played like princes.  Or worse.  Boston College won 10 games in both 2006 and 2007.  Wake Forest won 11 in 2006.  Obviously, it is not impossible to win 10+ games in the ACC.  The Florida schools just have not been able to do so.

For 2011, it was more of the same.  Miami went a pedestrian 6-6.  Good enough for a bowl, but the looming scandal persuaded the administrators to prudently pass that up.  Florida State did better, going 9-4.  But that is still not king territory.

What Went Wrong

The easiest answer is to blame the coaching situation.  Bobby Bowden might have stayed a bit too long–past his prime.  And Miami fired Larry Coker for having the audacity to not win 10 games and did not replace him.  Unlike the pros, college sports is dominated by coaches.

But the Confidential thinks it goes deeper than that.  In recent years, many schools have taken to recruiting Florida heavily.  When Greg Schiano moved up to Rutgers, he kept his Florida ties and established a pipeline from Miami to New Jersey.  The Louisville coaching staffs have consistently focused on Florida, from John L. Smith to present.  Wherever Rich Rodriguez was during the 2000’s, he recruited top athletes from Florida.  Add in the usual suspects, such as all of the SEC and ACC, as well as Notre Dame, and Florida talent is not slipping by.

Meanwhile, South Florida and Central Florida have arrived on the scene.  These schools have the ability to siphon off some of the great talent, while also keeping some of the good talent at home.  South Florida has made great strides toward converting Florida into a Big Four.

Will it Change?

Well, this is two straight 9-4 seasons for Florida State.  And it is a young team that can legitimately be projected to get over the 10-win barrier next year.  They have continued to stockpile talent via recent recruiting classes.  If it can translate into on-field performance, then Florida State will be back.

Miami is a different story.  While the scandal from last summer has died down, the NCAA is likely to dole out some sort of punishment.  So it is going to get worse before it gets better.  But Al Golden seems like the right fit to get the job done.  He kept that team together for most of the season.  Take away the head-scratching losses to Maryland (suspension-filled) and BC (already announced it was not bowling), and Miami was only beaten by Virginia, Va Tech, Kansas State and Florida State.  Four games by a total of 18 points.  If the sanctions are not too significant, Miami can rebound in a few years.

The bottom line is that the ACC needs things to change.  Virginia Tech and Clemson may win a national title some day, but failing to do so when Miami and FSU were reeling suggests otherwise.  As the bowl losses and national-reputation hits mount, it is going to take one or both of the Florida schools to state the ACC’s case on the national picture.  The sooner, the better.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , ,

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