The Confidential

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15 Nov 2011
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ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 15, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson has already defeated Virginia Tech once.  At Virginia Tech.  While the knee-jerk reaction is to think that Virginia Tech gets the better of Clemson a second-time around, The Confidential does not believe that Virginia Tech has the offense to keep up with Clemson.  As for the Big East Champion, Cincinnati without Zach Collaros is a lot different than Cincinnati with him.  They may not lose out, but they will lose one or two.  West Virginia is primed to step in–and they have the head-to-head edge over Rutgers.

 

ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia.   

 

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

 

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Arizona State.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Louisville.

 

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v Vanderbilt

 

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v San Diego State

 

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Miami v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 14, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 14, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 9-1 with a victory over Wake Forest, Clemson guaranteed itself a spot in the conference championship game.  From here, Clemson needs to win out to show that it deserves the top 10 ranking.  The conference NEEDS Clemson at 11-1.

2. Virginia Tech–In beating Georgia Tech, Va Tech has solidified itself of #2.  With games remaining against talented North Carolina and rival/rolling Virginia, it will not be easy for the Hokies to finish 11-1.  The dream matchup of 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Va Tech is still alive though.  While a rematch, this would capture attention.

3. Georgia Tech–Of the three 7-3 teams, The Confidential will give Georgia Tech the nod here.  It beat Clemson… giving it the best win of the bunch.  While Virginia has the head-to-head advantage, Virginia also has the head scratching losses to NC State and Southern Mississippi.

4. Florida State–This young team is rolling now.  With the 3-game losing streak a mere blip in the rear-view mirror, these kids appear to be coming together at the right time.  Head-to-head matchup with Virginia will tell us a lot.

5. Virginia–At 7-3, Virginia could fairly be ranked #3 or #4 here.  But The Confidential will require Virginia to prove it on the field first.  As noted above, the win over Georgia Tech is offset by some poor losses.  A win over Florida State would vault them to #3.

6. Miami–held their own against a hot Florida State team.  On the road.  While an argument could be made for North Carolina here, Miami showed that it belonged here by beating North Carolina on the road.

7. North Carolina– At 6-4, North Carolina gets a huge test against Virginia Tech this week.  Winning at the Hokies is rarely expected, but the Tarheels need to show that they can compete to maintain this slot.

8.  Wake Forest– So many close games for Wake Forest.  Playing Clemson to the wire is just another example of same.

9.  Syracuse–after three losses in a row, it is tempting to drop Syracuse to double-digits.  However, they still have wins over West Virginia and Wake Forest.  The latter is something that North Carolina State could not do.  A week off before taking on Cincinnati.

10.  North Carolina State– Losing to Boston College pretty much sums up this enigma of a team.  With Maryland coming up after the Clemson game, NC State can still get bowl eligible.

11. Pittsburgh— Beating Louisville to get to 5-5 made it tempting to slide Pittsburgh up a few notches.  With games @ West Virginia and hosting Syracuse to finish the regular season, this will be resolved on the field.

12.  Duke—Played Virginia tough before fading.  The Blue Devils get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–the win over NC State provided some good news for the fan base.  Upcoming games against Notre Dame and Miami may not make continued good news a safe bet.

14. Maryland- as if it couldn’t get worse, the drubbing by Notre Dame also featured a season-ending injury to Danny O’Brien.  At 2-8, it is difficult to see this team winning either of its two remaining games–both of which are on the road.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
12 Nov 2011

And here comes HOOPS!

The 2011-2012 basketball season is officially underway and the ACC is off to a good start.

North Carolina shook of a slow start against Michigan State and took step one towards what everyone expects to be a Final Four appearance.  In the (sorta) inaugural Carrier Classic, the Tarheels defeated the game Michigan State Spartans, 67-55.  With the national spotlight, including a Super Bowl-esque pregame show featuring President Barack Obama, North Carolina did what it was supposed to do.  And you can never take a Tom Izzo coached team lightly.  As usual, the Spartans worked hard on the boards and defensive end.  All in all, a huge win for North Carolina.  They look like they are prepared to live up to the hype.

At the other end of the spectrum, Duke barely defeated Belmont at home, winning 76-77.  Belmont is always one of those teams that you are tempted to pick in March to pull an upset.  Looks like we’ll be seeing them in that spot again this year.  If you watched the game, you know that the dagger was a long three pointer by Andre Dawkins to give Duke a 75-71 edge.  With the shot clock winding down, to make it a 2-possession game with 20 seconds to go is huge.  While it makes you wonder whether Duke is top 10 material at this point, the bottom line is that they won.

And the rest of the ACC held serve as Florida State, North Carolina State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Miami, and Georgia Tech all won.  Even future Big East member Pittsburgh won.

You cannot ask for anything more than 9-0.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
07 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 7, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 7, 2011:

1.  Clemson–With the week off, no reason to demote.  Need to be focused against Wake Forest this week.

2. Virginia Tech–The fact that Miami handled Duke easily makes that narrow victory look a bit worse… but not enough to drop in the standings.

3. Georgia Tech–Florida State appears back on track.  Going to need to play well to hold them out of the #3 spot.  But with a game against the Hokies coming up, the focus is on rising to #2.

4. Florida State–Another dominant win, this time over hapless Boston College.  These are important wins for re-establishing the brand though.  A win over Miami would be huge.

5. Miami–A dismantling of Duke is nice, but let’s see how they do against Florida State.

6. Virginia–At 6-3, the Cavs are now bowl-eligible and looking good.

7. North Carolina State– Everyone else lost.  Not sure anyone deserved to be the #7 team. 

8.  Wake Forest– Played Notre Dame tough, but still a winnable game.   Needs just one win for bowl eligibility.

9.  Syracuse–two road losses in a row have Syracuse still a win away from bowl eligibility.

10.  North Carolina–no excuse for getting shutout.  This team has more talent than that.

11. Pittsburgh— Played Cincinnati tough, but in the end the loss of Ray Graham was too much to overcome.

12.  Duke—After taking the Hokies to the final minutes, Duke did not show up against Miami.  At 3-6, the bowl dreams are down to a flicker.

13. Boston College–they caught Florida State at a bad time, as the Seminoles are on a roll right now.

14. Maryland- dark days in College Park.  

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
03 Nov 2011
3 Comments

ACC Pre-Season Basketball Rankings

As is the case with football, it is a bit difficult to rank Syracuse and Pitt along with the ACC schools.  However, at this stage of the season, a lot of the difficulty is avoided.  After all, nobody has played anyone.  There are no wins or losses to compare/contrast.  So, without further delay, here it goes.

The Confidential’s 2011-2012 Preseason Basketball Rankings:

Tier 1: These fan bases will be disappointed if the dream ends before the Final Four.

#1.  North Carolina.  Maybe it was the risk of an NBA lockout, but when you have three guys of a caliber of Zeller, Barnes, and Henson return, you are going to be #1 in the ACC.  In fact, many have them #1 in the land.

#2.  Syracuse.  All but Rick Jackson return from a team that did quite well last year.  Plus, with Fab Melo down several pounds and much more mobile, there might not be a drop off in the middle.

#3.  Pitt.  More experience returning than Duke, so we’ll give Pitt the edge here.  This may look like a poor selection early on if Nasir Robinson is more seriously injured that it seems.

#4.  Duke.  Too much talent to rank any lower.  Sure, one can worry about the players that left this team, such as Kyrie Irving.  But this team just rotates in elite talent every year.

Tier 2: Big Dance or Bust

#5.  Virginia.  This was a team that won 7 conference games without Mike Scott.  Add him back into the mix and The Confidential sees good things happening.

#6.  Florida St.  Leonard Hamilton has this team on a bit of a roll.  After going 11-5 last year, there is little reason to doubt that the Seminoles will do well this year.

#7.  Virginia Tech.   Poor Virginia Tech.  It seems like every year they are on the bubble.  If they can finish in the top 5 of this year’s ACC, perhaps that will get them over the hump.

#8.  Miami.  I like Jim Larranaga.  After what he did at George Mason, it is hard not to root for him.  I do question how he will do with someone else’s players.

#9.  Georgia Tech.  Glen Rice has been a dominant player for what seems like 25 years now.  What?  That’s his son?

#10.  North Carolina State.  With Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State may be a bit underrated here.

Tier 3: NIT would be acceptable

#11.  Clemson.  Too much lost talent to be confident that this team will make a run.

#12.  Maryland.  Hopefully, this Maryland coaching transition will go smoother than the football transition.  At #12, this isn’t much smoother.

#13.  Boston College.  No real reason to put them #13.  However, it just feels bad for Boston College to be so down in both football and hoops.

#14.  Wake Forest.  Not persuaded that they are truly #14, but if the debate between #13 and #14 gets the blogosphere riled up…. that would be a strange combination of impressive and pathetic.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
02 Nov 2011
4 Comments

Future Big East vs. Future ACC

The recent addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC is great news for the future.  It is hoped that this move will rejuvenate football, strengthen basketball, add new lucrative markets, solidify the northern core of the conference, and perhaps lead to Notre Dame joining to really add juice to football.  That’s the easy part.

The fact of the matter is that it also weakens the Big East.  While the Big East was likely to lose a team or two anyway, the ACC’s move means that the Big East lost four total teams.  In addition, three of those teams–all but TCU–are great basketball schools too.  The Big East’s loss is the ACC’s gain.  But, forget basketball for a moment, this is all about football.

As of yesterday, the Big East has apparently sent out 6 invitations.  It is expected that these are football only invitations to Boise St., Air Force, and Navy.  It is also expected that these are all-sports invitations to UCF, Houston, and SMU.  While many have characterized this as a move of desperation, how will the future Big East stack up against the future ACC in football moving forward?

Actually, let’s take a step back.  From a prestige standpoint, the new ACC will absolutely crush the Big East.  Even the middle of the pack of the ACC will be name schools, such as Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, etc.  These are schools that have had football success in the past 15 to 20 years.  BCS appearances.  Bowl games.  National titles even.

Also, this is not about marketing and money.  The new Big East will have new markets, but not domination in markets.  Nobody carries NYC, home of Rutgers.  Louisville splits Kentucky with, well, Kentucky.  Cincy is second chair to Ohio State.  Houston and SMU are behind Texas, Texas A&M, and sometimes Oklahoma in the major Texas markets.  Boise St. is a small market.  Navy and Air Force are national, but nobody is turning in to watch Navy play anyone other than Army or Notre Dame.  USF and UCF still have to get over the big three in Miami, FSU, and Florida.  Needless to say, this is not about $$$ yet.  The ACC wins hands down.

But let’s just look at it from an on-field football performance scenario.  According to the CBS, the new Big East will have the current #5, #14, and #23 teams in the AP poll.  The new ACC will have #11, #12, and #22.  That’s pretty close.  Perhaps even an edge to the Big East?

To go beyond the top 25, one needs to look at the CBS Rankings.  While The Confidential does not pretend that these have any real merit, it is one (albeit very subjective and debatable) measuring stick.

The new Big East has #4 (Boise St.), #8 (Houston), #26 (Cincy), #42 (SMU), #47 (Rutgers), #53 (USF),  #67 (Louisville), #78 (Air Force), #81 (UCF), #92 (UConn), and #93 (Navy)

The new ACC has #10 (Clemson), #12 (Virginia Tech), #24 (Georgia Tech), #32 (UNC), #41 (FSU), #45 (Miami), #46 (Wake Forest), #51 (Syracuse), #58 (Virginia), #75 (NC State), #77 (Pitt), #87 (Duke), #101 (Maryland), and #104 (BC).

Top 25: ACC 3, Big East 2 (could easily be 3)

Top 50: ACC 7 (could be 8 with Syracuse), Big East 5.

Edge for the ACC.  Although it should be noted that the ACC does have more teams.  And the Big East does not have teams in the bottom 25.

The bigger question, of course, is whether Boise St., Houston, and SMU can sustain their current rankings.  The ACC knows that it will have 2 or 3 ranked teams every year.  By moving to 12 teams, the Big East makes it far more likely that they will avoid the embarrassment of finishing a season shut out of the top 25.

Finally, let’s not ignore schedule here.  If all teams played a schedule at the same level, there is little doubt that these rankings would get shaken up considerably.  Boise St. has played Georgia.  Cincinnati lost to NC State, despite the 50 placement gap in these CBS rankings.  Cincy destroyed NC State, but lost to struggling Tennessee.  FSU lost to Oklahoma.  Miami lost to Kansas State.  UNC beat Rutgers.  However, given that the Big East teams will not have the elite opponents on the schedule, they are going to benefit by having a better, but emptier, record.  This is something that the ACC will just have to overcome. But, all-in-all, it sure looks like the Big East is not going to fall off the map here.

What do you think?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
31 Oct 2011

ACC Football Rankings

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 31, 2011:

1.  Clemson–The Confidential is sticking with Clemson here.  Losing to Georgia Tech was disappointing, but not disastrous.

2. Virginia Tech–hard to move the Hokies after they only barely beat Duke.

3. Georgia Tech–the win over Clemson gets things back on track.

4. Florida State–dominant win over North Carolina State suggests that better times are ahead.

5. Miami–the loss to Virginia is a step backward.

6. North Carolina– Almost moved the Tarheels ahead of Miami.  Impressive win over Wake Forest.

7.  Syracuse– Hugely disappointing loss to Louisville.  They get the edge with the win over Wake Forest.

8.  Wake Forest–Needed that North Carolina win to get to the next level.

9.  Virginia– With wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, this is the one team that may be significantly underrated at this point.  The Confidential is feeling a bit guilty here.

10. Pittsburgh— A win over UConn without their best player gets them the nod here, but it may be a short-lived stay this high.

11.  Duke—Playing the Hokies close is better than getting shellacked by the Seminoles.  We still expect NC State and Duke to flip.

12. North Carolina State–hard to not penalize a team that did not score.  I am sure the Wolfpack will rise up a few slots soon enough.

13. Boston College– the head-to-head matters, but the fact that Maryland just seems to have quit on Edsall carries the day.

14. Maryland- Beating Boston College to go to 3-5 was imperative.  This team is reeling.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
30 Oct 2011

No ACC Teams in New AP Top 10

The October 30, 2011, AP poll has now been released:

AP Top 25 Ranking

Rank Team Record Pts Last Week
1. LSU (47) 8-0 1439 1
2. Alabama (10) 8-0 1401 2
3. Oklahoma St. 8-0 1305 3
4. Stanford 8-0 1278 4
5. Boise St. (1) 7-0 1241 5
6. Oregon 7-1 1148 7
7. Oklahoma 7-1 1096 11
8. Arkansas 7-1 1035 8
9. Nebraska 7-1 976 13
10. South Carolina 7-1 861 14
11. Clemson 8-1 851 6
12. Virginia Tech 8-1 755 15
13. Michigan 7-1 718 17
14. Houston 8-0 611 18
15. Michigan St. 6-2 586 9
16. Penn St. 8-1 553 21
17. Kansas St. 7-1 536 10
18. Georgia 6-2 446 22
19. Wisconsin 6-2 420 12
20. Arizona St. 6-2 384 23
21. USC 6-2 323 20
22. Georgia Tech 7-2 230 NR
23. Cincinnati 6-1 128 24
24. West Virginia 6-2 111 25
25. Auburn 6-3 107 NR
Others Receiving Votes:

  • Texas 99,
  • Southern Miss 67,
  • Washington 52,
  • Ohio St. 37,
  • TCU 26,
  • Texas A&M 25,
  • Florida St. 4,
  • Notre Dame 1
ACC observations:
  • It is not at all surprising that Clemson dropped in the polls, given the loss to Georgia Tech.
  • And it is perfectly reasonable for Georgia Tech to move back into the standings at #22.
  • Despite narrowly beating Duke, Virginia Tech moved up a few spots in the standings as well.
  • And Florida State’s big win over North Carolina State has them back receiving a few votes.
  • As such, the ACC has 4 of the top 32 teams right now.  Decent, but not outstanding.
General observations:
  • Hard to disagree with the top 5 right now.
  • Boise St. is a BIG Georgia fan, needless to say.
  • Kind of surprising to see Michigan State drop below Michigan.  The Spartans just got done with a four-game stretch involving Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.  Going 3-1 is fairly impressive.  That Notre Dame loss certainly hurts.
  • The new Big 12 has 5 of the top 30 teams.  The new SEC has 7 of the top 31 teams, including 4 in the top 10.
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , ,
30 Oct 2011

And then there were none… Clemson loses to Georgia Tech

They say that college football is great because every week is a playoff game.  The Confidential tends to agree.  With a few exceptional situations or seasons, only undefeated teams have a chance of being one of the top two teams and, therefore, eligible to play for the national championship.  The season starts with all undefeated teams and gradually whittles its way down to just a few.  Going into Week #9, the ACC was fortunate enough to still have an undefeated team: Clemson.  After Week 9, however, the ACC has been eliminated from the national title picture because Clemson lost to Georgia Tech, 31-17.

At 7-2, the Georgia Tech win over now 8-1 Clemson should not be seen as a total surprise.  And the story should be about Georgia Tech.  Unfortunately, college football is a sport of tiers, with Clemson vying to join the top tier for 2011.  So, with all due respect to Georgia Tech, the lead on this story is Clemson losing, rather than Georgia Tech winning.

But The Confidential will give Georgia Tech its due praise.  After losing at Virginia and Miami, it looked as if the Yellow Jackets 6-0 start was a bit of a mirage.  Neither Virginia nor Miami is in the conference title picture.  With Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia remaining on the schedule, there was certainly a chance of finishing with a very mediocre season result.  In defeating Clemson, Georgia Tech took the first step towards avoiding a second-half collapse.

Amazingly, Georgia Tech was able to beat Clemson with virtually no passing game.  Although Georgia Tech does not put up significant passing numbers in most games, averaging about 120 yards per game, they only passed for 60 yards against Clemson.  That’s not a misprint.  60 yards.  Instead, this win was a product of 300 rushing yards, with more than half coming from quarterback Tevin Washington.  Although he has averaged about 60 yards per game rushing, Washington ran for 174 yards against Clemson.

Another story was turnovers.  As it often the case with a football game at any level, Clemson’s four turnovers told much of the story. In the first quarter, Clemson recovered a punt at its own 36 yard line.  On the second play, it fumbled, allowing Georgia Tech to start a drive at the 19 yard line.   This led to a touchdown.  After intercepting a Georgia Tech pass in the fourth quarter in a two-possession game, Clemson had the ball at the Georgia Tech 9-yard line.  On the very next play, Clemson threw an interception.  Give Georgia Tech credit though.  After getting that 4th quarter interception, they marched the ball down the field in a drive consuming nearly 9 minutes of fourth-quarter time.  Even though that drive did not result in a score, it gave Clemson too little time to mount a comeback.

And just like that, the ACC’s hopes of having a team in the national title game evaporated.  Clemson remains in the hunt for a BCS bowl appearance.  The November 10 matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will go a long way towards determining who plays in the ACC championship game.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , ,
27 Oct 2011

Big Tests This Saturday

There are a number of interesting games this Saturday.

College football is about having elite teams.  Having a 9-3 conference champion may show that your league has parity, but the nation only cares about the undefeated teams.  Clemson has a chance of reaching that elite status this year, which would be huge for the ACC.  This week, Clemson will be tested by Georgia Tech.  While the Yellow Jackets are reeling right now, they are a formidable foe.  The league would benefit from having Clemson win this game.  And win out until the conference championship game.

In the 1990’s, Florida State could be counted on for 10 and 11 win seasons.  Now?  Not so much.  A game against North Carolina State is the type of game that the old Florida State would handle. The ACC needs Florida State to return to elite status.  Losing a game like this is another step in the wrong direction.

Wake Forest has been a surprise team this year.  After narrowly losing to Syracuse in the opener, Wake Forest has acquitted itself well this year.  North Carolina did well out-of-conference, but has struggled within the conference.  This should be a great matchup.

Boston College v Maryland is not a good game because of the prowess of the two schools.  But it may represent Boston College’s best chance of winning a conference game this year.  Recall that Maryland lost to Temple.  And it was not even close.

Virginia Tech gets Duke.  Duke is improved this year, so Virginia Tech has to be careful.  The Hokies’ can occasionally be vulnerable in games that the rest of the country considers “easy wins.”

After losing to Maryland in the opener, Miami has done reasonably well this year.  The ACC needs Miami to step up and win the winnable games.  While Virginia is on the upswing, the ACC needs its elite programs to return to prominence.

For the new members, Syracuse heads to Louisville this week.  For ACC fans, the rooting interest is easy.  A return to national respectability for Syracuse will help the conference.

And congrats to Pitt for beating UConn in a rare Wednesday night game.  I am sure Pitt will not miss having to play midweek games.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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