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23 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 23, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 16, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (20-1)  The Orange finally lost–to Notre Dame on the road.  The absence of Fab Melo was crucial, but the team did not play like a top 25 team, much less a #1 team.  Still, it’s just one game and nobody below them has played better on the season.

2. Duke (16-3)  The loss at the buzzer to Florida State was very disappointing.  Duke is accustomed to defending its home court.  No real shame in the loss overall.

3. North Carolina (16-3)  North Carolina rebounded against Virginia Tech.  Big test this week against North Carolina State.

4. Virginia (15-3)  Dominating win at Georgia Tech early in the week.  Stunning loss to Virginia Tech.

5. North Carolina State (15-5)  North Carolina State is still on a roll.  It will be interesting to see how they do at North Carolina this week.

6. Florida State (13-6)  Beating Duke, Maryland, and North Carolina is a definite plus for the Seminoles.  Still, with 6 overall losses, Florida State is not ready for the top 5 yet.

7.  Virginia Tech (12-7)  Week began by having to deal with an angry North Carolina squad.  Ended with a very nice win over Virginia.

8.  Maryland (12-6) Losing to red hot Florida State on the road and Temple on the road makes this a tough week.  Still viable for the Big Dance though.

9. Wake Forest (11-8) Took care of business at Boston College.  Unfortunately, they get to host streaking Florida State next.

10. Miami (10-7)  Finally got that first conference win.  That it was against Clemson makes it slightly less impressive.  Going to need to string together some wins very soon.

11. Clemson (10-9)  Beating Georgia Tech salvaged a difficult week, which began with losses to Duke and Miami.  Next up?  Miami.

12. Pittsburgh (11-9)  0-7 in Big East play says it all.  As tough as they played against Syracuse, they could not overcome Louisville at home.

13. Georgia Tech (8-11)  Two more losses for the Yellow Jackets, who are seeing their post-season hopes slip away.

14. Boston College (7-12)  After getting some momentum, the Eagles are back to their losing ways.  Not looking good for post-season play.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
18 Jan 2012

ACC Players in the Mel Kiper Preview

Mel Kiper has issued his “first look at how the 2012 NFL Draft could play out.”  See here.  The ACC is fairly well represented in this first mock-up of the draft.

Here are the ACC players included:

  • With the #7 pick, Kiper has the Jacksonville Jaguars opting for Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina.  He sees need at wide receiver and in the pass rush, with Coples fitting the bill for the latter.
  • With the #15 pick, Kiper has the Philadelphia Eagles selecting ACC defensive player of the year Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College.  The Eagles obviously need defensive help.  Might as well draft a guy who was an Eagle in college.
  • With the #21 pick, Kiper has the Cincinnati Bengals opting for another underclassman, Lamar Miller, RB, Miami (Fla.).  Kiper believes that the Bengals need an explosive compliment to Cedric Benson.
  • With the #23 pick, Kiper has the Detroit Lions selecting Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina.  There is no dispute that the Lions need defensive help to go along with that great offense.  With Suh and Fairley, the defensive line is set.
  • With the #29 pick, Kiper has the New York Giants selecting Zebrie Sanders, OT, Florida St.  Kiper sees the offensive line as a need area for a team that likes to establish the run.
  • With the #32 pick, Kiper has the New England Patriots selecting Andre Branch, LB, Clemson.  Kiper anticipates a position change from defensive end to linebacker.

All in all, that is 6 ACC players out of 32.  There are likely to be plenty of familiar faces on the first night of this year’s draft.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
16 Jan 2012
3 Comments

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 16, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 16, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (19-0)  The Orange just keep on rolling.  Things get a bit tougher schedule-wise with Pittsburgh on Monday and then a trip to Notre Dame.

2. Duke (15-2)  Neither win was dominating this week, but the Blue Devils won.  That is something that North Carolina cannot say.

3. North Carolina (15-3)  It’s one thing to lose, but to get blown out by Florida State was unfathomable.  Too much talent to be this erratic.

4. Virginia (14-2)  Hard to penalize the Cavs for losing on the road to Duke.  Had they won, they might be #2.

5. North Carolina State (13-5)  Close call between Maryland and NC State after the Georgia Tech loss.  But the Wolfpack and Terps played head-to-head and NC State won.  Slight edge for now.

6. Maryland (12-4) Recovered nicely from the loss to NC State.  But not enough to leapfrog them, obviously

7. Florida State (11-6)  Beating Virginia Tech on the road was impressive.  Destroying North Carolina was even more impressive.  That is worthy of a 5 spot jump.

8.Virginia Tech (11-6)  Losses to Florida State and Boston College make this a tough week.  If anyone else below had shown signs of life, the Hokies would be lower.  May be playing their way right off the bubble–and in the wrong direction.

9. Wake Forest (10-7) Absolutely destroyed by North Carolina State.  Just not a very consistent team.

10. Miami (9-6)  No conference wins yet.  The opportunity comes this week when they host Clemson.

11. Pittsburgh (11-7)  0-5 in Big East play against a weak schedule so far.  Things get tougher with a trip to Syracuse, although Pitt always gives the Orange fits.

12. Clemson (9-8)  Looked very good against Florida State, but then lost to Boston College.  Loss to Duke was close though.

13. Georgia Tech (8-9)  Nice upset win over NC State, but loss to Maryland made it a split for the week.  There is the potential to slide upwards here.

14. Boston College (7-10)  With wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech, Boston College is now 2-1 in conference.  The way the bottom several teams are playing, the Eagles could end up with a .500 record in conference, which would be a nice recovery.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
10 Jan 2012
1 Comment

ACC Divisional Breakdowns After Expansion

Much has been written or discussed regarding the anticipated divisional breakdowns in the ACC after Syracuse and Pittsburgh are added.  While the Confidential appreciates that the football-elite schools in the Southern portion of the ACC would want to avoid a geographic division, the Confidential believes that there are numerous reasons why a straight geographical breakdown is prudent.

When the Confidential discusses a geographically based breakdown, this is what the Confidential actually envisions:

  • ACC North: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Miami
  • ACC South: Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Clemson, and Florida State.

Inherent in that process is that, for football, the teams would have “locked-in” rivalries against the team directly above/below in the standings.  This would allow Miami to play Florida State every year and maintain the North Carolina-Virginia rivalry.  With a 9-game conference schedule, that would allow 2 other cross-divisional games.  With 8 games, perhaps there could be some rotation of the cross-over game to allow some variety.

The Confidential anticipates that some will argue that these divisions are not adequately balanced.  How so?  Regardless of the pedigree of Clemson and Florida State, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC flag in BCS games.  Moreover, the ACC Championship game will settle it on the field.

Also, who can say what division in a conference is going to be better?  A few years ago, the SEC East was the powerhouse, with Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia.  Now?  It is the West with LSU, Alabama, and Auburn.  These things are cyclical.

More importantly, let’s say the ACC South is way better than the North.  That just means that the winner of the South will have that much better of a strength of schedule and be appropriately battle-tested for its bowl game.  With a 2-15 record in BCS games, the ACC needs to start caring about BCS bowl-performance.

The other good thing about this division is that it is logical.  Miami has terrible attendance anyway and, as a private school, lacks the graduate bank to fill-up road stadiums.  Plus, with its Big East history, games against its former Big East foes will be logical draws.  Plus, the northern schools have ample Florida retirees to contribute to the attendance at Miami games.  And it is a destination.  If you are living in Boston or New York, a road Miami game is a vacation (perhaps even from the snow).  If you live in Atlanta?  Not quite as much.

But above all else, such as division makes logical sense.  A fan in California or Idaho or Minnesota will be able to easily tell which team belongs in what division.  Quick–are Penn State and Michigan in the same Big 10 division?  You don’t know.  Because it is not geographically based.  While ACC fans may be able to remember who is Atlantic or Coastal, the rest of the country cannot and will not keep track of it.  No need to make it confusing.

Such a division also ensures that the neighboring rivalries are preserved.  Why prevent Maryland, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Boston College from playing each other every year?  Historically, these teams played each other quite a bit.  You do not need to create these rivalries–merely resurrect them.  And what is more likely–a Pittsburgh fan driving to Syracuse or Maryland… or a Pittsburgh fan driving to North Carolina State?

In any event, the Confidential challenges anyone to explain why this system would not be better than the proposal to just plop Syracuse and Pittsburgh into one of the Atlantic or Coastal divisions already in place.  Go for it.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 9, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 9, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (17-0)  Wins over Providence on the road and #20 Marquette at home have Syracuse at 17-0.  They travel to Villanova this week, before hosting Providence.

2. North Carolina (15-2)  The Tar Heels are starting to find their groove again.  This weeks foes, Miami and Florida State, have not gotten off to the starts that they wanted/needed.

3. Duke (13-2)  The loss to Temple was disappointing, but not terrible.  The win over Georgia Tech is not that informative.  The next game, Virginia, is for #3.

4. Virginia (14-1)  Virginia has now won 12 straight games.  If the Cavs can beat Duke, that will get everyone’s attention.

5. North Carolina State (12-4)  The win over much-improved Maryland was nice.  Gives the Wolfpack the edge over Virginia Tech, who lost to Wake Forest.

6. Virginia Tech (11-4)  Road loss to Wake Forest was a disappointment, but not the end of the world.  Virginia Tech still has a decent resume overall.

7. Maryland (10-4) Road loss to NC State was a disappointment.  The Terps host Wake Forest and can solidify the #7 spot with a win.

8. Wake Forest (10-4) Up a few notches after beating Virginia Tech.  Beating Maryland on the road would be even more impressive.

9. Miami (9-5)  Miami lost its conference opener in a tough road loss to Virginia.  And now they travel to North Carolina on Tuesday.  Tough start to the conference schedule.

10. Pittsburgh (11-5)  Not only have the wheels fallen off, they are rolling around somewhere nowhere near Pitt.  That’s what happens when you lose to DePaul.

11. Clemson (9-6)  Looked very good against Florida State.  Clemson gets Boston College this week for a chance to get that 10th win.

12. Florida State (9-6)  Beating Auburn was nice.  Losing to Clemson was tough.  Losing by 20 was inexcusable.  The Seminoles travel to Virginia Tech before hosting North Carolina this week.  Uh-oh.

13. Georgia Tech (7-8) After getting decimated by Alabama, the Yellow Jackets held their own against Duke.  At least for a while.

14. Boston College (5-10)  It is unfortunate when the worst team in the league has to open its conference schedule at North Carolina.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
07 Jan 2012

ACC Football: Early Entry Draft Update

With the ACC football season coming to a conclusion, ’tis the season for underclassmen to announce that they are foregoing the excitement of playing college football.  The dollars of the NFL, or perhaps the nickels of the CFL or AFL or any other initialed FL out there, are the lure.  For some players, they are ready and it is a smart decision.  For others, it is a head-scratcher. In any event, here is where things stand for some of the ACC’s top players.

  • ACC Player of the Year David Wilson, Virginia Tech running back, has announced that he will head to the NFL.
  • ACC Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly, Boston College linebacker, has announced that he will head to the NFL. For more on his decision, check out BC Interruption.
  • Dwayne Allen, Clemson tight end
  • Lamar Miller, Miami running back.  For more on his decision, check out The 7th Floor.
  • Brandon Washington, Miami guard
  • Jayron Hosely, Virginia Tech cornerback
  • Chandler Jones, Syracuse defensive end.  For more on his decision, check out Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician.
  • Sylvester Williams, North Carolina defensive tackle
  • Chris Givens, Wake Forest wide receiver.  For more on his decision, check out Blogger So Dear.
  • Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech wide receiver.  For more on his decision, check out From the Rumble Seat.
  • Terrell Manning, North Carolina State linebacker.  For more on his decision, check out Backing the Pack.
  • Tommy Streeter, Miami wide receiver
  • Marcus Forston, Miami defensive tackle
  • Olivier Vernon, Miami defensive end
  • Donte Paige-Moss, North Carolina defensive end.  For more on his decision, check out Carolina March.

As the above list shows, Miami stands to lose a ton of players to the NFL.  Of course, once upon a time, Miami would lose a ton of players to the NFL and simply reload.

It is difficult to envision Boston College and Syracuse not suffering on defense with the loss of their best overall players.  Wake Forest and Georgia Tech will also suffer offensively without their standout wide receivers.  But the loss of all of these guys will hurt their respective teams.  They are potential NFL players because of their talent, after all.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Jan 2012
1 Comment

ACC Football: The Need for Florida State and Miami

The formula is pretty simple for the ACC.  It needs Miami and Florida State to play like kings.  It needs Virginia Tech and Clemson to be the next closes thing to a king.  And it needs a few other schools to rise up every few years and/or win impressive out-of-conference games, including bowl games.  But none of that works unless Miami and Florida State can return to something closer to the glory days.  They are the schools that need to carry the conference in football.

The Kings

Football is an elitist sport.  No matter how bad Ohio State and Florida might be, a win over those schools means a lot and a loss to these schools is respectable.  In contrast, losing to Iowa State is an unacceptable result.  Nevermind that Iowa State had the same regular season record as those schools in 2011, Oklahoma State was punished substantially for its loss to Iowa State.  Iowa State is simply not Ohio State or Florida, regardless of the record.

Once upon a time, Miami and Florida State were kings.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State went 11-1, 11-1, 10-2, 10-2, 11-2, 11-1, 12-1, 10-1-1, 10-2, 11-1, 11-1, 11-2, 12-0, and 11-2.  From 1983 to 2003, Miami had more than a dozen 10 win seasons, including three undefeated seasons. That is how you become a king–you win 10 or more games more often than not (or consecutively) for so long that people do not even know what it is like for you to not be in the top 10, much less unranked.

But that all ended in 2004, when Miami joined the ACC.  Perhaps not because of the move to the ACC.  But the move has certainly coincided with the fall from the top.  Since then, Miami has not had a 10-win season.  Florida State had one–in 2010.  Instead of playing like kings, these schools have played like princes.  Or worse.  Boston College won 10 games in both 2006 and 2007.  Wake Forest won 11 in 2006.  Obviously, it is not impossible to win 10+ games in the ACC.  The Florida schools just have not been able to do so.

For 2011, it was more of the same.  Miami went a pedestrian 6-6.  Good enough for a bowl, but the looming scandal persuaded the administrators to prudently pass that up.  Florida State did better, going 9-4.  But that is still not king territory.

What Went Wrong

The easiest answer is to blame the coaching situation.  Bobby Bowden might have stayed a bit too long–past his prime.  And Miami fired Larry Coker for having the audacity to not win 10 games and did not replace him.  Unlike the pros, college sports is dominated by coaches.

But the Confidential thinks it goes deeper than that.  In recent years, many schools have taken to recruiting Florida heavily.  When Greg Schiano moved up to Rutgers, he kept his Florida ties and established a pipeline from Miami to New Jersey.  The Louisville coaching staffs have consistently focused on Florida, from John L. Smith to present.  Wherever Rich Rodriguez was during the 2000’s, he recruited top athletes from Florida.  Add in the usual suspects, such as all of the SEC and ACC, as well as Notre Dame, and Florida talent is not slipping by.

Meanwhile, South Florida and Central Florida have arrived on the scene.  These schools have the ability to siphon off some of the great talent, while also keeping some of the good talent at home.  South Florida has made great strides toward converting Florida into a Big Four.

Will it Change?

Well, this is two straight 9-4 seasons for Florida State.  And it is a young team that can legitimately be projected to get over the 10-win barrier next year.  They have continued to stockpile talent via recent recruiting classes.  If it can translate into on-field performance, then Florida State will be back.

Miami is a different story.  While the scandal from last summer has died down, the NCAA is likely to dole out some sort of punishment.  So it is going to get worse before it gets better.  But Al Golden seems like the right fit to get the job done.  He kept that team together for most of the season.  Take away the head-scratching losses to Maryland (suspension-filled) and BC (already announced it was not bowling), and Miami was only beaten by Virginia, Va Tech, Kansas State and Florida State.  Four games by a total of 18 points.  If the sanctions are not too significant, Miami can rebound in a few years.

The bottom line is that the ACC needs things to change.  Virginia Tech and Clemson may win a national title some day, but failing to do so when Miami and FSU were reeling suggests otherwise.  As the bowl losses and national-reputation hits mount, it is going to take one or both of the Florida schools to state the ACC’s case on the national picture.  The sooner, the better.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , ,
03 Jan 2012

#21 Virginia Defeats LSU, Improves to 13-1

At the beginning of the year, the ACC only had two ranked teams–Duke and North Carolina.  Virginia has climbed into the rankings with a solid November and December.  Virginia’s January got off to a great start, as the #21 Cavaliers traveled to Baton Rouge to defeat LSU, 57-52, to improve to 13-1.

This game was a very close, defensive struggle as both teams shot less than 45% from the field.  It was tied at halftime, 26-26.  And, with five minutes to go, the Cavs trailed 47-46.  But Virginia was fairly clutch down the stretch with its free throw shooting and three-point shots to pull off the victory.

Virginia was led by Sammy Zeglinski’s 17 points.  Joe Harris added 14 points, while Mike Scott had 12 points and 9 rebounds.  Virginia opens the ACC schedule on Saturday against Miami.

Speaking of Miami, the ended the out-of-conference schedule with a 99-89 win over North Carolina-Greensboro.  Kenny Kadji scored led Miami with 30 points and 12 rebounds.  Three other Hurricanes finished in double-digits in scoring.

But the rest of the ACC fared poorly. Wake Forest lost some significant momentum by losing to Wofford, at home, 56-52.   Wake Forest had won 3 in a row and was looking to get its 10th overall win.  With the loss, Wake drops to 9-5 as it heads into conference play.

Meanwhile, Boston College continued to cement its position as the cellar-dweller in the ACC, losing to Rhode Island in double-overtime, 78-72.  The Eagles dropped to 5-9 with the home loss to the Rams (who improved to 3-12).  It’s going to be a very long season for Boston College.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
02 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 2, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 2, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (15-0)  Still rolling.  #1 in the country and just picked up a win in Chicago over DePaul.

2. North Carolina (13-2)  The Tar Heels are still winding their way through a weak part of the schedule.

3. Duke (12-1)  Temple and Georgia Tech this week.  The OOC is almost over.

4. Virginia (12-1)  Things are looking good for the Cavs.  12-1, with conference play on the horizon.

5. Virginia Tech (11-3)  Great win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Wake Forest looms this weekend.

6. North Carolina State (10-4) 4-0 since losing to Syracuse.  One more OOC to plod through before the conference games start.

7. Maryland (9-3) 6 wins in a row, with Cornell up next.

8. Florida State (8-5)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  Lost to Princeton is a serious blow.

9. Pittsburgh (11-4)  Another loss.  Wheels are starting to fall off here.

10. Wake Forest (9-4)  Record is nice, but the level of opponents is just not there.

11. Miami (8-4)  The Hurricanes need to do some damage in early conference play.

12. Georgia Tech (7-6) The wheels have fallen off.   This team is too good to be struggling at .500.

13. Clemson (8-6)  13th, but a lot of room to move up.  Clemson may be better than a few teams ahead of them.

14. Boston College (5-8)  Still in the cellar.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011
1 Comment

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 29, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 29, 2011:

1.  Syracuse (14-0)  Still rolling.  Destroyed a decent Seton Hall team in the conference opener.

2. North Carolina (12-2)  The Tar Heels don’t play a ranked team until February 8th against Duke.

3. Duke (10-1)  If Duke wins the next five, including games against Temple and Virginia, they have to move ahead of North Carolina.

4. Virginia (11-1)  The Confidential moved the Cavs ahead of Pittsburgh in the last rankings… and Virginia is now ranked in the polls too.

5. Virginia Tech (10-3)  An upcoming game against Oklahoma State is a rare in-season rematch against an OOC foe.

6. Florida State (8-4)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  But Florida is really, really good this year.

7. Pittsburgh (11-3)  No excuse for loss to Wagner.  Even the loss at Notre Dame is a head shaker.

8.  North Carolina State (8-4) 2-0 since losing to Syracuse.  All winnable games for a few more weeks.  Need to keep the momentum going.

9. Maryland (8-3) Maryland rises another spot–the Terps have won FIVE in a row now.

10. Wake Forest (8-4)  A few wins in a row now against middling competition.

11. Miami (7-4) Played some tough opponents, but Miami needs to start stringing together wins.

12. Georgia Tech (7-5) Lost to Mercer was unacceptable.

13. Clemson (7-6)  Just not winning enough.  Got to win early in the season to have a chance.

14. Boston College (5-7)  Three in a row going into game against ranked Harvard.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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