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Is ESPN’s Greed Causing it to Lose Profit?

Frank the Tank has a new article up on the Catholic 7’s new television deal showing that basketball has more value in expansion than previously thought.  The Confidential does not disagree.  However, with Fox offering big money for a basketball-only product–and taking that product away from ESPN–it is just the latest example of ESPN’s greed causing it to lose profit.  What this also shows is that ESPN made a killing off its undervalued contract with the Big East and is making another killing off of the ACC contract.

Think about it.  If the Catholic 7 collectively have a fair market value of $3M apiece–that is $21M right there.  TCU, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville have values of approximately $18M apiece–given that they were accepted into conferences that needed roughly that (more for TCU/Rutgers/WVU) to break even.  So that is $108M.  Figure ND is worth $6M for its non-football stuff… that is $135M ($21M + $108 + $6M).  And then you still have UConn, USF, and Cincinnati.  Even at $25M total for the three schools, that is $160M.

For that collection of schools, ESPN offered $11M per football school–or $99M/year.  With the hoops schools getting a few million apiece, that is another $20M tops.  So $120M.  $40M less than what the schools ultimately proved to be worth individually.  At the very least.

In the end, ESPN ends up with UConn, USF, Cincinnati, and fodder.  So much for that extra value.  By trying to profit as much as possible off the Big East, ESPN ended up losing most of it.

Sort of.  Some of it went to the ACC, which is also under ESPN’s control.

For now.

Regardless of the veracity of any rumors, there are vultures circling the ACC to see IF it is a carcass.

So the interesting issue is whether ESPN will lose its ACC golden goose also.  Viewed separately, all but a handful of ACC schools are desired by the Big XII, SEC, and Big 10.  Viewed conservatively, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest are “stuck” in the ACC.  An argument could be made that BC, Pitt, and Syracuse might have value to the Big XII as part of a NE wing with WVU.  Interesting thought.  But let’s assume not.  If conferences making $20M/year (minimum) can find a revenue BOOST in adding the other 10 ACC schools, that must mean that those schools are worth at least $22M apiece or $220M.  Assuming the remaining 4 are worth $11M apiece (50%), that is $264M total.  Minimum.  It is probably much higher.

Well, ESPN is paying an average of $240M per year.  Less extra profit than with the Big East, but still a nice 10% premium above the bare minimum numbers discussed above.

The question this time is whether ESPN will allow the ACC–in its current form–to walk out the door.  For every ACC school that leaves for somewhere other than the SEC, ESPN becomes less relevant and Fox becomes more relevant on the college sports scene.  At some point, ESPN has to protect its place in the college sports game.  It wants to start an SEC Network, not become the SEC Network.  Right?  But, given what has happened at many major corporations, one can never underestimate the stupidity of an organization.  10 years from now ESPN’s college programming might be down to the SEC and 10 different shows where reporters yell at each other about college sports.  Or ESPN could end up overbidding on the Big XII or Big 10 because they put themselves into a desperate situation.  Who knows?

But it does seem like ESPN could save itself a lot of trouble by locking up the ACC.  That gives the network good football and great basketball.  Programming from September to March.  At the very least, something to keep it on pace with Fox.

 

Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Louisville fans… get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:

Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:

ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

The 2013 Greg Schiano Pansiness In Scheduling Award for the ACC

Nobody rode the coattails of weak scheduling any farther than Greg Schiano.  As noted here previously, Rutgers rise to mediocrity was accompanied by a rather obvious shift to absolutely putrid OOC scheduling.  Well, it worked…as Rutgers is now in the Big 10 and Schiano is now in the NFL.  In the meantime, let’s take a look at the OOC schedules for the ACC teams.  In the spirit of the Oscars, who gets the Greg Schiano award for the ACC in 2013?

First, let’s look at the OOC schedules (courtesy of http://www.theacc.com):

  • Boston College: Villanova, @ USC, Army, @ New Mexico State
  • Clemson: Georgia, South Carolina State, The Citadel, @ South Carolina
  • Duke: North Carolina Central, @ Memphis, Troy, Navy
  • Florida State: Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, @ Florida
  • Georgia Tech: Elon, @ BYU, Alabama A&M, Georgia
  • Maryland: Florida Int’l, Old Dominion, @ UConn, West Virginia
  • Miami: Florida Atlantic, Florida, Savannah State, @ USF
  • North Carolina: @ South Carolina, Middle Tennessee, East Carolina, Old Dominion
  • NC State: Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Central Michigan, East Carolina
  • Pittsburgh: New Mexico, Old Dominion, @ Navy, Notre Dame
  • Syracuse: Penn State (Neutral site), @ Northwestern, Wagner, Tulane
  • Virginia: BYU, Oregon, VMI, Ball State
  • Va Tech: Alabama (Neutral site), Western Carolina, @ East Carolina, Marshall
  • Wake Forest: Presbyterian, Louisiana-Monroe, @Army, @ Vanderbilt

Old Dominion might have the toughest schedule East of the Mississippi, with games against Maryland, Pitt, and North Carolina.  Heck, let’s add them to the conference!  Just kidding.

Notably, only a handful of teams play more than one AQ-conference team.  Clemson plays Georgia and South Carolina.  Maryland plays West Virginia and UConn (kinda, sorta).  Miami plays Florida and USF (kinda sorta).  Syracuse plays Penn State and Northwestern.  So those 4 teams can be eliminated from the Schiano Award.

Virginia Tech plays Alabama, Virginia plays Oregon, Florida State plays Florida, Pitt plays Notre Dame, and Boston College plays Southern Cal.  That is five teams that are taking on elite teams, kings of the sport.  We can eliminate them too.  That leaves but 5.

Georgia and Southern Carolina may or may not be Kings, but they are darn goods teams.  We can eliminate North Carolina and Georgia Tech.  Down to 3 teams.

Wake Forest plays @ Vanderbilt and @ Army.  Two road OOC games against decent programs.  Heck, Greg Schiano would not have scheduled a road game against Vandy in the same year as a road trip to Army, so we’ll eliminate the Demon Deacons.  Down to 2.

The two finalists are Duke and North Carolina State.  Duke’s toughest game is either Navy or @ Memphis.  Yep… one of the worst teams in all of FBS may be Duke’s “toughest” game.  For North Carolina State, home games against Louisiana Tech and East Carolina are the choices.  Wait a minute… North Carolina State is not even going on the road at all!  Four home games and zero games against any BCS-level programs?  Methinks we have a winner here.

The 2013 Greg Schiano Pansiness in Schedule Award for the ACC goes to… the North Carolina State Wolfpack!

 

 

Reviewing Signing Day 2013: How Did The ACC Do?

Well, another signing day has come and gone for college football.  Your question, naturally, is how did the ACC do?  Actually, your real question is how YOUR team did.  But you’ll have to settle for this broad analysis for now.

Our friends over at ESPN have taken the time to rank the recruiting classes.  The ACC did quite well.  Future partial member Notre Dame was deemed to have the #4 class.  Florida State cracked the top 10 at #9.  Clemson was not far behind at #13.  We’ll have to see whether the Confidential correspondents agree with that order.  Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Miami finished from #19 through #21.

So that is 5 of the top 21 teams being current ACC, with Notre Dame being a 6th team.  By comparison, the Big 10 had two teams in the top 21, with Ohio State and Michigan in the top 6.  Nebraska and Penn State at least finished at #24.  The Pac-12 had 3, with UCLA, USC, and Washington all slotting between #12 and #18.  The Big XII had two, with Texas and Oklahoma finishing #15 and #16.  The rest of the top 21 was SEC… meaning 8 of the top 21 teams were SEC.

All 14 SEC teams finished in the top 38, which is simply amazing.  Indeed, where the ACC struggles is with the second tier.  Only Virginia cracked the top 40.  See this:

SEC               10 in top 25                    14 in top 40

ACC               5 in top 25 (+ ND)        6 in top 40 (+ ND)

Pac-12           3 in top 25                      7 in top 25

Big 10            4 in top 25                      6 in top 25 (+ Rutgers)

Big XII          2 in top 25                      5 in top 25

Really, none of this is surprising.  The biggest problem with the ACC is that the lower-echelon teams are not given enough credit–fairly or unfairly.  But the ACC has absolutely nothing to be ashamed of at the top.  It is as strong as anyone–it just needs to win more BCS games and get more titles to prove it.

Signing Day!

Today is the day that teenagers–at least the slow-to-decide or overly-dramatic ones–decide which college football franchise they will be associated with  for the next 4-5 years.  There are lots of battles to watch today–will Clemson overcome Florida State in the recruiting rankings?  Can Louisville or Miami make a run at them?  Can the new coaching staffs at North Carolina State, Boston College, and Syracuse close strong?  Will Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia keep themselves close to the upper echelon, despite disappointing seasons?  Is Notre Dame back?  How about the rest of tobacco road–will Duke, North Carolina, and Wake Forest show that they are not just places for hoops recruits?  And does anyone, anywhere really give a crap about Maryland?

Well, we know the answer to the last question–no!  Even the Big 10 shrugs with a “meh,” and refers to maps and markets.  But everything else is unanswered.  Tune in here and elsewhere for recruiting information on this huge day.

The Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: February 4, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of February 4, 2013:

1.  Duke (3 first place votes)     58 points

2.  Miami   (2 first place votes)   55 points

3.  Syracuse    47 points

4.  Notre Dame   41 points

5.  Louisville   40 points

6.  NC State   35 points

7.   Pittsburgh   32 points

8.  North Carolina   29 points

9.   Maryland  21 points

10.  Virginia   19 points

11.   Florida State  11 points

12.  Clemson  3 points

Notes:

Clemson edged Wake Forest 3-2, to land the coveted 12th spot in the standings.

The correspondents are starting to both believe in Miami and question Syracuse.  Nobody had Duke below #2.

Speaking of Syracuse, the Orange and Fighting Irish face off on Monday for the much desired number three spot in the poll.  Syracuse needs a win badly.

Louisville, Pitt, and NC State are a solid number 5 through 7, but the Tar Heels at 8 and only a few points behind them is surprising.

Maryland is only narrowly ahead of Virginia.  Unfortunately, Maryland does not have any ACC rivals, or they would be even better.  Bring on Rutgers and Iowa!

One half of the top 8 continues to be Big East.  Maybe the ACC is not helping football enough, but the basketball improvement will be obvious.  Of course, all four went to bowl games too.

Recruiting rankings matter, but so does depth

National Signing Day is mere days away.  For all intents and purposes, this is college footballs “free agency and draft” all rolled into one.  Your roster is set, the foundation for the next few seasons has been laid.  For an elite program, a few missed recruits can mean the difference between playing for crystal and playing for sugar or oranges… or worse, tires [take your pick of the lot of subpar bowl games].

If you believe what you read on FSU message boards, the sky is falling and football may not be played in September.  That may only be a half-truth; the sky seems to be falling but football will certainly be played at Doak Campbell Stadium come September.

So, why’s the sky falling in Tallahassee?  Florida State is on the verge of a recruiting misstep; one that might cost Jimbo Fisher his job.  According to the major recruiting services, FSU has finished with top 10 classes in the past few cycles.  However, when you look a bit deeper you notice a glaring issue.  Sure, there are five and four star skill players abound, but where are the offensive lineman?  Of the offensive lineman Florida State recruited last year, neither of them are on the team.  Granted, both were junior college transfers, but that means that Jimbo and Co. are playing with fire.  Not having depth at any position can cost you, but not having depth at offensive line can severely limit your potency on offense.  Many Florida State insiders refer to the loss against North Carolina State as an example of this; our NFL-bound right tackle, Menelik Watson, missed that game.  It turned out to be the Seminoles worst offensive performance of the year – the offense looked pedestrian at times and failed to convert on many third and shorts that could have clinched the game for the Seminoles.

Going back several years, recruiting offensive line has been an issue at Florida State.  Frankly, it doesn’t make sense.  Florida State has all of the other pieces on offense: a great offensive mind in Jimbo Fisher and blue chip quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers. A strong offensive line should be part of that equation but it has truly been anything but.  The rumor is that five and four star offensive linemen aren’t terribly receptive to Rick Trickett’s allegedly abusive coaching style.  So, maybe he thrives on “project” type players that are willing to work a little harder and be subjected to his coaching style.  However, it’s not just the quality of recruits, but the quantity.  Remember, Florida State did not retain either of the lineman it recruited last year.  During this year’s cycle, while much is expected to occur between now and Wednesday, Florida State has 2 confirmed offensive line commitments and one tight end that will likely transition to tackle.  What may hurt the most is that a long-time offensive line commitment, Austin Golson, decommitted just barely a week before signing day.

Of course, the irony of the situation is that the first string quarterback is Clint Trickett, the offensive line coach’s son.  Clint is not the most mobile of quarterbacks and is more of a pocket passer.  If his dad, Rick, doesn’t hold up his end of the bargain, he may actually wind up costing his son the opportunity to be the quarterback at Florida State.

Florida State is aggressively recruiting two offensive lineman, 4-star Denver Kirkland and 3-star Wilson Bell, and both are very likely to join Florida State on Wednesday.  However, if they don’t, I wouldn’t  be surprised by Florida State’s struggles in the future.  It’s like having a donut (spare tire) on a Ferrari; amazing potential, but perilously limited by a lack of quality and depth on the offensive line.

The First Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: January 28, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of January 28, 2013:

1.  Duke  (2 first place votes)   56 points

2.  Syracuse (1 first place vote)   54 points

3.  Miami (2 first place votes)  49 points

4.  North Carolina State   44 points

5.  (tie) Notre Dame and Pitt  37 points

7.  Louisville  30 points

8.  Virginia   25 points

9.  Maryland   23 points

10.  North Carolina 17 points

11. Florida State  11 points

12. Clemson  6 points

Notes:

Georgia Tech was placed #12 on a ballot each, but Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Boston College did not crack anyone’s top 12.  Sorry to those teams.

It is clear that name value still matters, as Duke and Syracuse suffered losses but stayed in the top 2.  Meanwhile, not everyone is persuaded that Miami is for real.  Was it just a hot January?  We’ll see.

North Carolina State is generally #4 or #5 in each poll.  It gets interesting thereafter, with the teams very hard to place.  Is Louisville the team that was ranked #1 in the country or the one that has lost 3 in a row?  What are Notre Dame, Pitt, and Maryland REALLY?  And it is odd to see North Carolina so low.  But do its rivals really care?  Enjoy the middle of the pack.  Virginia could find itself several places higher soon enough. 

Anyway, what do YOU think.  Does Duke still deserve the #1 spot?  Does Syracuse?  Miami?  Someone else?

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 22, 2013

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of January 22, 2013:

1.     Syracuse (18-1) – The Orange eked out two impressive wins over #1 ranked Louisville and plucky Cincinnati, all without their 6th starter, James Southerland. Syracuse may have the #1 spot in the conference right now, but the margin of error is very slim. Next up: @ Villanova.

2.     Duke (16-1) – Duke recovered from their loss against NC State with a win over Georgia Tech, all while missing Kelly from the line-up. Next up @#25 Miami, vs. Maryland.

3.     Louisville (16-2) – Louisville was about 15 seconds away from taking down the Orange and staying atop the rankings, instead their time on top ended prematurely. Next up: @ Villanova, @ Georgetown, @ Pitt.

4.     Miami (13-3) – Miami’s record has been flawless for the first half of January, notching recent wins against Maryland and Boston College and garnering a top-25 ranking. Things are going to get a lot tougher for the ‘Canes when Duke brings their talents to South Beach. Next up: vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, @ Virginia Tech.

5.     North Carolina State (15-3) – The Wolfpack follow-up their monumental win against Duke by losing a heartbreaker to Maryland, but righted the ship by getting the job done against Clemson. Next up: @Wake Forest, @UNC.

6.     Pittsburgh (15-4) – The Panthers were able to move-on from the OT loss to Marquette and picked-up two nice wins against Villanova and UConn and should pick up two more this week. Up Next: @Providence, vs. DePaul, @ Louisville.

7.     Notre Dame (15-4) – The Irish bounced back from tough back-to-back losses against UConn and St. John’s by barely beating a surprising Rutgers team. And then a loss to Georgetown.  Up next: @ USF, vs. Villanova.

8.     Virginia (12-5) –Did you see what Virginia did to Florida State?  Allowing 36 points in a game is just unreal.  Up Next: @ Virginia Tech, vs. Boston College.

9.     Maryland (14-4) – The Terps have been very mercurial since league play started in January, particularly struggling offensively; perhaps just getting ready for their future in the Big Ten. Next up: vs. Boston College, @ Duke, @ FSU.

10.  North Carolina (12-5) – It’s too early to tell if Roy’s Boys are back on track, or if the past two wins over Florida State and Maryland are just an aberration. Up Next: vs. Georgia Tech, @NC State, @ Boston College.

11.  Florida State (10-7) – It’s a good thing that the Seminoles haven’t played many games lately, because they have just been down-right bad. One expects the football team to score 36 points, not the basketball team. Sheesh. Next up: vs. Clemson, @ Miami, vs. Maryland.

12.  Clemson (10-7) – The Tigers needed a win against North Carolina State to help keep the positive momentum going. Next up:@ Florida State, vs. Virginia Tech, and vs. Georgia Tech.

13.  Boston College (9-8) –  Boston College looks to stem the losing streak and avoid slipping to the bottom of the ACC. Next up: @Maryland, @ Virginia, vs. UNC.

14.  Virginia Tech (11-6) – VPI beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, but lost to Boston College. Next up: vs. Virginia, @ Clemson, vs. Miami.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 15, 2013

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of January 8, 2013:

1Duke (15-1)–The Blue Devils lost.  But they have beaten Louisville–so how can the Cardinals slide up to #1.  Yet.

2. Louisville (16-1)–The ACC’s newest addition is now #1 in the country.  They beat UConn on Monday and get Syracuse this weekend.

3.Syracuse (16-1)–The Orange have another academic casualty–James Southerland.  They still did pretty well without Fab Melo last year though.

4.North Carolina State (14-2)–The Wolfpack did what nobody else could do this year–beat Duke.  Still, with two losses, hard to move them into the top 3.

5. Notre Dame (14-2)--The Irish were on a roll, but then they ran into UConn.  The Irish will hold onto a top 5 spot for now.

6. Miami (12-3)–Miami has nice wins over Michigan State, North Carolina, and Maryland.  3-0 in the ACC is a great start.

7. Maryland (13-3)–The Terps do not have many good wins.  The losses to Miami and Florida State do not help the resume either.

8. Pittsburgh (13-4)–The Panthers were looking good at 12-1 with its only loss being to Michigan.  They have now lost 3 of 4 Big East games.  The win over Georgetown is nice though.

9. Virginia (11-5)–The Wahoos do not have a more impressive resume than North Carolina.  But they did beat North Carolina, whose resume is not that great either.

10. North Carolina (11-5)–North Carolina is not looking great this year at all.  It is going to be a battle to make the Big Dance.

11. Florida State (10-6)The Seminoles are looking decent at 10-6, at least compared to how the season started.  A win over UNC would have been nicer though.

12. Wake Forest (9-6)–The Demon Deacons were #16 a week ago.  But now they are 2-1 in conference, with the only loss being to Duke.  12-16 is a crapshoot anyway.

13. Clemson (9-6)–The Tigers have the best win among the bottom 4–Virginia.  Better than nothing.

14. Boston College (9-7)–The Eagles have a win over Virginia Tech.  So that gets them the #14 spot this week.

15. Virginia Tech (10-6)–After starting 7-0, the Hokies have lost 6 of 9.  They even lost to Boston College.

16. Georgia Tech (10-5)–The Yellow Jackets are 0-3 in conference play, so that means the cellar.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Final

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Final version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (13-1): The SEC proves again that it can take care of business on the national stage.  But Alabama deserves special credit for turning into a dynasty. Wow.
  2. Notre Dame (12-1): The Fighting Irish played a tough schedule and came out 12-0.  Sure, they lost to Alabama.  That just makes them #2.
  3. Ohio State (12-0):  The Buckeyes were idle during bowl season, due to an improvident decision by its athletic director to not sit out last year’s bowl.  Urban Meyer has things going in Columbus though.
  4. Oregon (12-1): A great January for Oregon.  They beat Kansas State by a decent margin and, most importantly, kept Chip Kelly.
  5. Georgia (12-2): Georgia’s only losses were to South Carolina and Alabama.  Hard to argue with that.
  6. South Carolina (11-2): South Carolina lost two games all season–to LSU and Florida.  Gives them the edge over Texas A&M.
  7. Texas A&M (11-2): The Aggies showed that they belonged in the SEC.  The only losses were to LSU and Florida.
  8. Stanford (12-2): The Cardinal have that inexplicable loss to Washington and a loss to Notre Dame.  Otherwise, Stanford beat Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA (twice), Wisconsin, and USC.  That’s all.
  9. Florida (11-2):  The Gators were dismantled by Louisville, but had a very good season overall.  Hard to have Florida State leapfrog them when Florida won the head-to-head game.
  10. Florida State (12-2): Florida State had a great season.  That loss to North Carolina State remains hard to justify though.
  11. Louisville (11-2).
  12. LSU (10-3).
  13. Clemson (11-2).
  14. Kansas State (11-2).
  15. Oklahoma (10-3).
  16. Northwestern (10-3).
  17. Boise State (11-2).
  18. Utah State (11-2).
  19. Northern Illinois (12-2).
  20. Cincinnati (10-3).
  21. Nebraska (10-4).
  22. Kent State (11-3).
  23. Vanderbilt (9-4).
  24. Oregon State (9-4).
  25. Penn State (8-4).

* * *

121.  Illinois (2-10).  The Illini were overmatched in the Big 10 this year.  2013 should be better though.

122. Kentucky (2-10).  Kentucky beat Samford and Kent State.  That Kent State win looks pretty good now!

123. Kansas (1-11).  Kansas was the only Big XII team to not make a bowl.  Going to be a tough rebuilding process.

124. Colorado (1-11).  The Buffaloes actually kept it close against Utah to finish the season.  But there was too little of that in 2012.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

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