The Confidential

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ACC Basketball Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of November 28, 2011:

1Syracuse–Not going to penalize Syracuse for beating everyone on its schedule.  6-0 is 6-0.  Va Tech and Stanford are good wins too.

Next big test: Florida on December 2.

2. Duke–At 7-0, and with more impressive wins that Syracuse, Duke could be #1.  But both teams are just holding North Carolina’s spot right now.   Duke did great in Maui though.

Next big test: Ohio State on November 29.

3. North Carolina–At 5-1, North Carolina gets a huge benefit of the doubt here after that loss to UNLV.  2 huge tests coming up–we’ll know a lot more soon enough.

Next big test: Wisconsin on November 30.

4. Virginia Tech–At 5-1, the Hokies looked very good in losing to Syracuse and beating Oklahoma State.

Next bit test:  Minnesota on November 30.

5. North Carolina State–At 5-1, North Carolina State is off to a real good start.  The win over Texas was nice.

Next big test: Indiana on November 30.

6. Pittsburgh–At 5-1, the Panthers are still reeling from the loss to Long Beach State.  Winning, but not entirely impressively.

Next big test: Tennessee on December 3.

7. Virginia–At 5-1, the Cavaliers still have no quality wins.  And that bad loss to TCU lingers.

Next big test: Michigan on November 30.

8Miami–At 4-1, the loss to Mississippi is not the worst loss ever.  A good team gets the win there.

Next big test: Purdue on November 29.

9Florida State– At 5-2, hit a rough spot with losses to Harvard and UConn.  Two very good teams, but two losses nevertheless.

Next big test: Michigan State on November 30.

10. Wake Forest– At 4-2, the Demon Deacons have two decent losses, but got a nice win over Texas Tech to give them the edge of Georgia Tech here.

Next big test: Nebraska on November 30.

11. Georgia Tech–at 4-2, Georgia Tech needs a good win soon.

12. Clemson–at 3-2, with closer losses, Clemson gets the nod here.

13. Maryland–at 3-2, same record as Clemson, but barely beat Florida Gulf Coast and some horrible losses.

14. Boston College--at 2-4.  Nowhere to go but up.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–at 11-1, Virginia Tech head into the ACC Championship Game on the highest of highs.

2. Clemson–after losing two straight, Clemson limps into the ACC Championship Game at 9-3.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.  The loss to the Hokies was a major disappointment, but they get the nod here.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–the loss to Boston College remains disappointing, but North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–second-half collapse against West Virginia leaves Pitt at 5-6, with a game against Syracuse to decide who gets bowl eligibility.

11Syracuse–second-half of season collapse continued with a drubbing by wounded Cincinnati.  Still can get to bowl eligibility with a win over Pitt.

12Boston College–the win over Miami gives the Eagles three conference wins.  That has to mean something.

13. Duke–the best 3-9 team in the country?  We’ll leave that for someone else to figure out.

14. Maryland–the Randy Edsall era is not exactly off to a great start.  Like Rich Rodriguez, one wonders if it is possible to fix.  If you are brought in to take your team to the next level, dropping down three levels is a poor way to start.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

ACC Basketball Review: Harvard Upsets #20 Florida State

Friday was a good day for Massachusetts schools playing ACC schools from Florida.  Boston College traveled to Miami and upset the Hurricanes in football, 24-17.  But, in an even bigger upset, Harvard beat #20 Florida State in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, 46-41.

No, that score is not a misprint.  Harvard held Florida State to 41 points.  In fact, the halftime score was 14-14, which is far more befitting of a college football score.  In fact, according to CBS, the 28 points scored by both teams was historically inept:

The halftime score was 14-14, matching the lowest total for a half in a Division I game since 1986. Ole Miss (15) and South Carolina (13) also combined for 28 points in the first half of their game on Jan. 8, 2003. The Seminoles were 5 for 24 from the field in the first half, and Harvard went 3 for 23.

Those figures are just abysmal.  Between the two teams, they were 8 for 47 in the first half!  That is less than 20% shooting. In fact, while both teams improved in the second-half, Harvard won despite shooting 27.3% from the field for the game.  Interestingly, the teams were 8 for 27 from 3-point land: 29.6%.  Overall, they were 29 for 91 from the field: 31.9%.  Florida State actually shot better from behind the arc than overall!

With the win, Harvard advances to play Central Florida for the tournament championship.  UCF upset #4 Connecticut, who blew a 17 point lead in the second half.  Raise your hand if you guessed a Harvard-UCF title game!  Florida State gets to rebound from its awful performance by playing a motivated UConn team.

In other games:

  • In a result that surprised nobody, #1 North Carolina improved to 5-0 by defeating South Carolina 87-62.
  • Future ACC member Syracuse, currently ranked #5, rallied to defeat a tough Stanford team, 69-63, to win the NIT Preseason Tipoff Classic.  Syracuse improved to 6-0 in defeating the 5-1 Cardinal.
  • Wake Forest was obliterated by Arizona State, 84-56.  The Sun Devils were 1-3 heading into the game.  This does not bode well for the Demon Deacons.
  • Boston College showed some signs of life, fending off California Riverside, albeit in overtime.  A win is a win.
  • Clemson got to 3-2 by defeating Furman, 59-49.
  • Maryland also got to 3-2 by defeating Florida Gulf Coast, 73-67.
  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh justified its #17 ranking by taking care of business against Pennsylvania, 78-58, to improve to 5-1.
  • North Carolina State improved to 5-1 by defeating Elon, 82-67.
  • Virginia also improved to 5-1, defeating Wisconsin-Green Bay, 68-42.
  • Miami fell to Mississippi in overtime, 64-61.  With the loss, Miami falls to 4-1, while Mississippi improves to 5-1.  This loss may not look as bad in March if Mississippi ends up being on the right side of the bubble.

 

 

 

A Lot of ACC Hoops Today…

If you are an ACC fan, you are likely a basketball fan, which makes today a GREAT day for you.  There are games all day, from 2:30 pm to 10:00 p.m.

The early games:

  • Virginia Tech plays Oklahoma State in the consolation game of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  Oklahoma State did not show up in its matchup against Stanford; however, Virginia Tech played quite well against Syracuse before ultimately falling.  This would be a huge statement game for Virginia Tech.  2:30 p.m.
  • Miami at Mississippi.  Miami is 4-0 on the year.  A win at Mississippi would add a good road loss to the resume.  4:00 p.m.
  • Harvard at Florida State.  Both teams are undefeated.  Tommy Amaker has some great recruiting classes coming in, but they are not there yet.  Still, this is a game that Harvard will really need if it is on the bubble again this year.  Florida State will need to bring its A game to hold them off.   4:30 p.m.
  • Cal-Riverside at Boston College.  Boston College has been terrible this year.  One of these 1-3 teams will get to 2-3.  If it’s not Boston College…who will this team ever be able to beat?  5:00 p.m.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Future ACC member Syracuse puts its 5-0 record on the line against Stanford, who is also 5-0.  This game is for the championship of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  For Syracuse, playing in Madison Square Garden is nothing new.  For Stanford, they destroyed Oklahoma State there on Wednesday and certainly would love a long plane ride home with the trophy.  Tipoff is at 5:00 p.m.

The 7:00 p.m. games:

  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh travels to Philadelphia to play Penn at the Palestra.  Pitt was a preseason top 10 team and cannot afford to lose another OOC game.  Penn always comes to play against big time opponents.
  • Elon at North Carolina State.  Fresh off a nice win over Texas, North Carolina State needs to take care of business here and get to 5-1.
  • Furman at Clemson.  Furman has the better record right now.  Think about that for a moment.  All games of this ilk are must-wins for the home team.  This one certainly qualifies for a disappointing Clemson team.
  • Florida Gulf Coast at Maryland.  Maryland has been awful this year.  They need to rebound from their 26-point loss to Iona by beating an overmatched, 2-3 team.  If not?  Shudder.
  • Green Bay at Virginia.  The Packers look outstanding in beating the Lions yesterday.  Wait, what?  At 4-1, Virginia needs to keep beating the beatable opponents.  Wisconsin-Green Bay certainly qualifies.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Wake Forest vs. Arizona State in the Old Spice Invitational.  Although Arizona State is only 1-3, this is the sole evening matchup between two major schools.  These two teams play in the consolidation game, while Dayton-Fairfield play for the Championship.  Who saw that coming?  Yes… this is a featured game by default.

The late game:

  • North Carolina vs. South Carolina in the Las Vegas Invitational.  Some decent names in this tournament, including USC and UNLV.  But nothing that this North Carolina team is expected to lose to.  The expectations are THAT high for this team.  Anything short of a 20-point win and there will be whispers.  This is the negative part about being #1, of course.  Game starts at 10:00 p.m. EST, give or take.

What a day… all these basketball games, with ample football sprinkled in too.  Enjoy!

First ACC Game of the Year–Syracuse 69, Virginia Tech 58

OK, not really.  But in a few years this will be an ACC game!  In any event, while it is admirable that Syracuse won (again), it is also impressive that Virginia Tech hung with Syracuse so well.  In fact, Virginia Tech was leading at the half 29-27.  Not many teams are going to hold this Syracuse team to 27 points in any half.  Although Syracuse ultimately pulled out the win 69-58, both teams can take good things from this game.

For Syracuse, the Orange showed that they can win a game where they do not dictate tempo.  Virginia Tech fully intended to slow the game down and, for the most part, succeeded.  Syracuse was averaging 90 points per game, but scored only 69 points overall.  Syracuse showed that they can play tough defense, get the key rebounds, and score without transition baskets.

For Virginia Tech, the Hokies showed that they will be no pushover in the ACC.  They were able to dictate tempo against the more athletic and deeper Syracuse team.  They were only outrebounded by 5.  Syracuse did not get to the free throw line much–as Virginia Tech was able to play tough without fouling.

Ultimately, it was the combination of Syracuse’s defense and Virginia Tech’s turnovers that led to the Syracuse win.  Virginia Tech had 15 turnovers to go along with 15 assists.  Syracuse had an outstanding 17-8 assist to turnover ratio.  Part of what took down Syracuse was self-inflicted mistakes.  So far, 2011-2012 has shown great improvement.

On an individual basis, Virginia Tech has to be pleased that Dorenzo Hudson, Erick Green, and Jerell Eddie rose to the occasion, scoring 44 of the team’s 58 points.  However, the rest of the team contributed little.  Notably, freshman Dorian Finney-Smith never really got on track, scoring only 2 points.  He did lead the team with 7 rebounds.

For Syracuse, the starters contributed a great percentage of points than they had all year.  Kris Joseph and Brandon Triche scored 20 and 18 points, respectively.  Supersubs CJ Fair and Dion Waiters chipped in another 23.  Also impressive was Fab Melo, who looks to be ready to live up to the hype this year.  He had 5 blocked shots.

The Hokies will face Oklahoma State on Friday afternoon in the consolation game.  Syracuse will face Stanford for the Championship of the NIT Season Tipoff.

Latest on Syracuse’s Bernie Fine

The Confidential opined that Jim Boeheim may have been making a mistake in putting his neck on the line for Bernie Fine.   The premise of that was NOT that Jim Boeheim was a bad boss or a bad friend.  Quite the contrary, his support for Bernie Fine makes him an outstanding boss and friend.  He’s the guy you want in an alley with you.  He’s the guy you want in your foxhole.

The problem is that his public announcements went beyond merely responding to the one fact regarding him and, instead, interjected himself into the story.  He called the accusers liars.  No real gray area there.

To extricate himself would require some sort of “proof” that these allegations against Fine were false.  Proving a negative is always difficult.  Proving a negative from 20 years ago is more so.  Proving a negative in the absence of a venue is next to impossible.  At present, the only venue is the venue of public opinion.  Fortunately for Syracuse and Boeheim, the public seems generally tired from all the awful news that arose out of the Penn State scandal.  And the Syracuse situation comes nowhere near the Penn State situation.  But that does not make this issue a “clean” one.

Quite the contrary.  Right now, the Syracuse Police Department is in a battle with the District Attorney to see who can deflect attention away from its own possible failings quick enough.  The District Attorney is up in arms that he was never alerted about this years ago.  The District Attorney wants the police records–even to the point of obtaining a subpoena.  This does not sound like a team environment.  The Syracuse Police Department may or may not be behind a leak that one of the accuser’s ex-girlfriends reported this incident to the District Attorney’s right-hand man.  The call was never returned.  All one can say is, be careful what you wish for, Mr. District Attorney.

Frankly, for all we know, nobody ever called anyone!  But, in their zeal to cover their own butts, the Syracuse law enforcement team has decided that the best way to CYA is by shifting the blame onto its partner in stopping crime.  Good luck with that.  Meanwhile, the accusers, Bernie Fine, Jim Boeheim, and Syracuse University, all sit in the middle of this unexpected battle.  It’s kind of hard for anyone to strengthen and support their position when “law and order” are so busy trying to disappear from the scene of this accident (that may or may not have occurred).

For the accusers, this mess adds to their position.  Competing claims of incompetence by law enforcement officials bolster the claim that nobody took the accusations seriously enough.  More importantly, this debacle is keeping the issue in the news.  If this is about notoriety, mission accomplished.

This, of course, is the opposite of what Fine, Boeheim, and Syracuse want.  Their preference would be for this to shift out of the limelight for somewhere between “a while” and “forever.”

Look… nobody knows the truth.  For all the character witnesses supporting Fine, he may have done some or all of the things alleged.  For all the knee-jerk desire to assume that a human being would not have invented these serious allegations, this is a sick world sometimes.  Worse yet, there is nowhere for anyone to find “hope.”  Whoever is telling the truth, we are not going to like the result.

But, at this stage, determining what “the truth” is seems like wishful thinking.  There are too many questions to be investigated and resolved, and there is an emerging concern that there is little reason to have faith in those doing the investigating.  The bottom line is that this is not going anywhere fast.  Jim Boeheim valiantly stood up for his colleague and friend.  Hopefully, he has a chair nearby.  This may not ending anytime soon.

ACC Basketball Rankings: November 22, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of November 22, 2011:

1North Carolina–Despite only being 3-0, North Carolina has not shown anything that would cause them to drop from #1.

Looking forward to: Wisconsin on November 30; Kentucky on December 3.

2. Syracuse–At 4-0, and weathering the storm of the Bernie Fine scandal, this Syracuse team is winning in style.  Not many teams have a bench that outscores its starters.  Syracuse does.

Looking forward to: Virginia Tech on November 23; November 25 against Stanford or Oklahoma State;

3. Duke–At 5-0, with a win over Michigan State, Duke has a legitimate claim to be #1 or #2.  But North Carolina disposed of Michigan State a little more effectively.  And Syracuse has done nothing to deserve a drop from #2.

Looking forward to: Ohio State on November 29; Washington on December 10.

4. Florida State–At 4-0, Florida State has not beaten anyone.  However, unlike Pitt, they have not lost to an inferior foe.  Edge to the Seminoles.

Looking forward to: Michigan State on November 30; Florida on December 22.

5. Pittsburgh–Could have dropped the Panthers lower after that home loss to Long Beach State.  Time will tell.

Looking forward to: Tennessee on December 3; Oklahoma State on December 10.

6. Virginia Tech–Haven’t played anyone yet.  That will change soon as they face Syracuse in Madison Square Garden.

Looking forward to: Syracuse on November 23; November 25 against Stanford or Oklahoma State.

7North Carolina State– Losing to Vanderbilt is decent, the win over Texas moves the Wolfpack ahead of Wake Forest and Miami.

Looking forward to: Stanford on December 4; Syracuse on December 17.

8. Wake Forest– At 3-0, the Demon Deacons have yet to be tested.  Not much on the plate soon either.

Looking forward to: the conference schedule?

9Miami– At 3-0, the win over Rutgers is nice.  The schedule gets tougher–giving Miami a chance to leapfrog a few teams.

Looking forward to: Purdue on November 29; Memphis on December 6.

10. Virginia–at 4-1, the Cavaliers have no quality wins.  They also have a bad loss to TCU.

Looking forward to: Michigan on November 29; George Mason on December 6.

11. Georgia Tech–at 3-2, Georgia Tech doesn’t have a horrible loss yet.  St. Josephs and LSU are not exactly bottom 100 teams. Still, those are winnable games.

Looking forward to: Northwestern on November 29; Georgia on December 7.

12. Clemson– well, someone had to be #12.  Clemson’s loss to Charleston is inexplicable.  No good wins.  But that’s still better than #13 and #14.

Looking forward to: Iowa on November 29; Arizona on December 10.

13. Maryland– losing to Alabama is reasonable. Losing to Iona is not.  Losing by 26 is just terrible.

Looking forward to: Florida Gulf Coast on November 25.  This team cannot look forward to anyone.

14. Boston College– Wow.  Losing to Holy Cross is bad.  Losing to UMass is bad.  Losing by 22 to Holy Cross is awful.  Losing by 36 to UMass is incredible.

Looking forward to: St. Louis on November 24.  This team doesn’t deserve any pumpkin pie.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

The Confidential College Basketball Top 25: November 21, 2011

With college basketball heating up, here is The Confidential’s Top 25  as of November 21, 2011

1.  North Carolina–absolutely no reason to move down

2. Ohio State–they beat Florida–a very impressive win.

3. Kentucky–an impressive win over Kansas, close on Ohio State

4. Syracuse–distractions aside, Syracuse has been dominant so far

5. UConn–like Syracuse, not tested yet.  Great start though.

6. Duke–with 903 behind Coach K, the team can concentrate on improving week-to-week.

7. Memphis–only 1-0?  Schedule some games already!  Huge game against Michigan coming up.

8. Louisville–win over Butler is nice.  Still, that’s not your Butler from the past few years.

9. Florida–losing to Ohio Sate is not the end of the world.

10. Baylor–nice win over San Diego State.

11. Alabama–wins over Maryland and Purdue already.

12. Kansas–loss to Kentucky is not the end of the world either.

13. Xavier

14. Gonzaga

15. Florida State

16. Michigan

17. Pittsburgh

18. Cincinnati

19. Missouri

20. Marquette

21.  Wisconsin

22. California

23. Villanova

24. Virginia Tech

25. Michigan State (nobody started tougher than the Spartans)

If we are nuts, feel free to tell us.  Sadly, the Internet will store this for future mocking down the road.  But that’s how we see it, as of today.

ACC Football Rankings: November 21, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 21, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–At 10-1, Virginia Tech has to slide ahead of 9-2 Clemson, despite the head-to-head result.  The Hokies have simply played better since that game.

2. Clemson–Had the Tigers lost in overtime, maybe they would have stuck at #1.  But Clemson had played with fire for too long to allow the head-to-head result keep them at #1.

3. Virginia--London has done a great job with this team.  Given that Virginia has beaten Georgia Tech, the nod goes to Virginia.  Huge game this week against rival Va Tech.

4. Georgia Tech–At 8-3, the Yellow Jackets have the advantage over 7-4 Florida State.  However, this may not last beyond the upcoming game against Georgia.

5. Florida State–Inexplicable collapse against Virginia.  Florida State certainly plays a tough schedule, but a few too many losses to get the benefit of the doubt.

6. Miami–the Florida tour continued with a win–albeit not entirely impressive offensively–over South Florida.  The Hurricanes are skipping a bowl this year, making this week’s game against Boston College the finale.

7 (tie). Wake Forest, North Carolina, North Carolina State– At 6-5, these teams are simply not distinguishable.  Perhaps this week will help clarify things.

10.  Pittsburgh–did not play this week, but gets the edge over reeling Syracuse.  Huge game this week against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl.

11.  Syracuse–did not play this week, but managed to lose its starting free safety to suspension.  The Orange get injured Cincy this week, before Pitt next week.

12.  DukePlayed Georgia Tech tough.  Duke is far from an easy win for anyone. The Blue Devils still get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–played Notre Dame very tough before falling.  Despite the record, Boston College finished pretty strong.

14. Maryland–has this team quit on its coach?  Does anyone even care?  Poor Maryland.


The Next Day: Jim Boeheim Continues “All-In” Strategy

With a police investigation just beginning into the accusations of molestation levied against Bernie Fine, Jim Boeheim has ramped up his “all-in” strategy.  While at least one Syracuse blog has posited that it is ESPN that is playing “a dangerous game,” The Confidential thinks otherwise.  Instead, the Confidential believes that it is Jim Boeheim that is playing the dangerous game here.  A very dangerous game.

In fact, there is nothing unequivocal about Jim Boeheim’s statements in this matter.  He is 100% behind Fine.  He is 100% against the accusers.  As reported by Syracuse.com, Boeheim has said:

“This is alleged to have occurred … what?” Boeheim asked late Thursday night. “Twenty years ago? Am I in the right neighborhood? It might be 26 years ago? So, we are supposed to what? Stop the presses 26 years later? For a false allegation? For what I absolutely believe is a false allegation? I know he’s lying about me seeing him in his hotel room. That’s a lie. If he’s going to tell one lie, I’m sure there’s a few more of them.”

Boeheim was speaking of Bobby Davis, the 39-year-old man who has declared that Fine, SU’s assistant basketball coach for 36 seasons, molested him on hundreds of occasions over a period of some 15 years beginning when Davis was 12 or 13. Specifically, Boeheim was referencing the charge by Davis that he, Boeheim, had seen Davis on multiple occasions in Fine’s hotel room on Orange basketball road trips.

“I never have been in Bernie Fine’s hotel room in my life,” Boeheim said. “This is what, 16 to 18 years ago, or whatever it is? But I don’t recall ever walking into any of my assistant coaches’ rooms. Now, could I have once … one time? I have a pretty good recollection of things, but I don’t ever recollect ever walking into Bernie Fine’s hotel room. Ever.”

Boeheim did admit that Davis, who lived in Fine’s basement for a while as a teen and served for a time as an Orange ball boy, did periodically travel with the SU basketball team. But, Boeheim offered, Davis traveled for a practical reason.

“I know Bobby,” Boeheim said. “He was one of 300 ball boys we’ve had. This kid ended up being a babysitter for Bernie. He babysat Bernie’s kids. That’s why he was on the trips. He’d babysit. The kid only traveled, to my knowledge, if he was babysitting Bernie’s kids. This is when he was 18 years old. He was helping to babysit the kids. That’s the only time I know about, from talking with Bernie.”

Asked what Davis’ possible motivation would be to tell his disturbing story at this time, Boeheim hesitated not at all.

“Here’s why,” he said. “The Penn State thing came out and the kid behind this is trying to get money. He’s tried before. And now he’s trying again. If he gets this, he’s going to sue the university and Bernie. What do you think is going to happen at Penn State? You know how much money is going to be involved in civil suits? I’d say about $50 million. That’s what this is about. Money.”

No middle-ground here at all.  Boeheim is calling the accuser a liar and providing a motive.

As a preliminary matter, as it relates to the singular question of whether Bernie Fine had inappropriate contact with two minors, there are only two possibilities.  The first possibility is that the victims’ accusations are untrue.  The second possibility is that Bernie Fine’s denial is untrue.  What else is there?

Suppose the victims’ accusations are untrue.  Who is going to make that determination?  A jury found OJ Simpson to be not guilty of murder, but a fair number of people deemed that to be an incorrect verdict.  Strictly speaking, the jury only made the conclusion that he was not guilty “beyond a reasonable doubt.”  So maybe they were 80% sure he was guilty, but did not think that 80% guilty met the standard.  If a jury finds Bernie Fine not guilty, will the public be satisfied with that conclusion?  Or will there be the backlash: “sure, a Syracuse jury did not find the coach innocent…must have been a kangaroo court.”

The same goes for a decision by the police or prosecutor not to press charges.  It is unclear whether any outsiders will truly give due credit to such a determination made by local authorities.  So there may continue to be a sense of doubt.

In the best case scenario for Bernie Fine, not only do the police not press charges against him, the police press charges against the accusers for making a false allegation.  That would be the type of message that suggests that not only is Bernie Fine innocent, but the evidence suggests otherwise.  A similar scenario would be if the accusers were charged with conspiracy.  Such a scenario could arise if one accuser decides to come clean that it is a false allegation.

Short of that, it is difficult to envision a situation where this issue is resolved without some lingering doubt.  This means that, even within the “untrue” side of the equation, there is the possibility of Boeheim having miscalculated in his zeal.  It’s difficult to prove a negative.  This includes “my long-term assistant did not molest anyone.”  You can be confident in his innocence, but that only goes so far.

In contrast, what if the accusations are true?  The unwavering support is honorable; however, unless it is 100% impossible for the allegations to be false–failing to acknowledge the minimal possibility could be very troublesome.  In the circumstance where the accusations are true, Boeheim will have put his reputation fully on the line to defend Bernie Fine only to have that blow up in his face.   The honor in defending his colleague will shift to a valid criticism that he is incapable of making character determinations.  What begs the question–why make the determination at all?

In fact, incorrectly calling someone a liar and accusing them of making up statements for the purpose of money will lead to lawsuits. While Boeheim might have avoided responsibility based on the circumstances of the conduct, false statements might open up a new door of potential liability.

And this will also cause Boeheim to be lumped into the same category as Paterno.  Sure, you don’t believe it can happen.  But you don’t make that decision–you make sure that the police make that decision.  And you don’t interfere with the police making that decision by making public statements putting the weight of your reputation against the accusers.  This could all end very badly for Boeheim.

It is also not clear what would qualify as “truth.”  If the police open an investigation and find other victims, is that enough to be “truth”?  If it goes to a grand jury, is that enough to be “truth”?  If there is an indictment, is that enough to be “truth”?  Or will it take a conviction. An argument could be made that it is “all of the above.” If so, there are many stages where Boeheim will have erred in placing his reputation behind Fine.

There is one more matter here.  Syracuse University issued a statement.  The Chancellor issued a statement.  Unless Boeheim was encouraged to make a statement by the Syracuse legal team, he may have gone against the preferences of that team.  If so, even if Boeheim is right, he may have caused more trouble for his employer.

Boeheim deserves credit for supporting Fine, but he has certainly gone “all in.”  And even if you think you have a great hand, going “all in” is not without its risks.

What do you think?  And not just whether you would respect what Boeheim has done, was it the smart thing to do?

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