The Confidential

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16 Nov 2011
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ACC Football Predictions for November 19, 2011

After a 5-1  week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Virginia Tech (9-1) hosting North Carolina (6-4)

The easy pick here is Virginia Tech.  Look at where the game is being played.  Look at the records.  Look at the general directions the teams are headed.  Ignore the fact that North Carolina beat Virginia Tech the last time the teams met in Blacksburg.  That last one is bit scary.  But this is game that Virginia Tech needs to control its destiny.  And the Confidential does not see this North Carolina team pulling off the upset.  Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

North Carolina State (5-5) hosting Clemson (9-1)

Clemson has been making it interesting lately.  And they are surely riding high with their berth in the ACC Championship game now assured.  There is certainly a risk of Clemson looking past the team that just lost to Boston College.  And then there is “any given Saturday.”  But the visitors just have too much talent.  Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

Duke (3-7) hosting Georgia Tech (7-3)

Georgia Tech is a hard team to figure out.  They have lost 3 of 4 games.  But that is sandwiched around giving Clemson its only loss.  Georgia Tech is only 2-2 on the road.  Meanwhile, in Duke’s last two home games, they lost to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech by a combined 5 points.  Of course, Florida State and Stanford had their way in that same location.  This is a game where nobody should be shocked if Duke pulls the upset, but The Confidential does not see it.  Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17.

Wake Forest (5-5) hosting Maryland (2-8)

Wake Forest is a team that is two bounces away from being 7-3.  And they have struggled at home against superior foes, such as Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.  Maryland, of course, is not a superior foe.  In fact, Maryland’s season seems to be spiraling out of control.  While nothing is impossible, a Maryland win here would be simply shocking.  Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

Notre Dame (7-3) hosting Boston College (3-7)

The Notre Dame ACC tour continues.  So far, Notre Dame has beaten Wake Forest and Maryland in ACC country.  For this one, Notre Dame gets to host it.  While Boston College has won 2 out of 3, this one still looks like a game that Notre Dame will have to lose for itself.  While it has certainly shown the ability to lose games by untimely turnovers in great quantity, it seems unlikely here.  Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

South Florida (5-4) hosting Miami (5-5)

This is a battle for bowl eligibility.  Miami does have the benefit of hosting Boston College next week, while South Florida has two conference games remaining.  Miami is likely to be down after a tough loss on the road at Florida State.  Meanwhile, South Florida has some momentum back after righting the ship at Syracuse.  BJ Daniels has not been the problem this year.  This is bigger than a bowl game for the Bulls.   South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

GAME OF THE WEEK

Florida State (7-3) hosting Virginia (7-3).  Virginia has already won at Miami.  But if you look a little deeper, you’ll see that Virginia’s wins are not overly impressive.  Sure, the win over Georgia Tech was impressive.  But this game is, by far, Virginia’s toughest challenge.  At least until next week.  Meanwhile, Florida State seems to have righted the ship.  These are the games that will dictate whether Florida State returns to being football elite or will continue to be mired in mediocrity.  The old Florida State would see 10-3 as the only possible way to salvage the season and prepare for a 14-0 run next year.  Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
15 Nov 2011
2 Comments

ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 15, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson has already defeated Virginia Tech once.  At Virginia Tech.  While the knee-jerk reaction is to think that Virginia Tech gets the better of Clemson a second-time around, The Confidential does not believe that Virginia Tech has the offense to keep up with Clemson.  As for the Big East Champion, Cincinnati without Zach Collaros is a lot different than Cincinnati with him.  They may not lose out, but they will lose one or two.  West Virginia is primed to step in–and they have the head-to-head edge over Rutgers.

 

ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia.   

 

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

 

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Arizona State.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Louisville.

 

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v Vanderbilt

 

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v San Diego State

 

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Miami v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 14, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 14, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 9-1 with a victory over Wake Forest, Clemson guaranteed itself a spot in the conference championship game.  From here, Clemson needs to win out to show that it deserves the top 10 ranking.  The conference NEEDS Clemson at 11-1.

2. Virginia Tech–In beating Georgia Tech, Va Tech has solidified itself of #2.  With games remaining against talented North Carolina and rival/rolling Virginia, it will not be easy for the Hokies to finish 11-1.  The dream matchup of 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Va Tech is still alive though.  While a rematch, this would capture attention.

3. Georgia Tech–Of the three 7-3 teams, The Confidential will give Georgia Tech the nod here.  It beat Clemson… giving it the best win of the bunch.  While Virginia has the head-to-head advantage, Virginia also has the head scratching losses to NC State and Southern Mississippi.

4. Florida State–This young team is rolling now.  With the 3-game losing streak a mere blip in the rear-view mirror, these kids appear to be coming together at the right time.  Head-to-head matchup with Virginia will tell us a lot.

5. Virginia–At 7-3, Virginia could fairly be ranked #3 or #4 here.  But The Confidential will require Virginia to prove it on the field first.  As noted above, the win over Georgia Tech is offset by some poor losses.  A win over Florida State would vault them to #3.

6. Miami–held their own against a hot Florida State team.  On the road.  While an argument could be made for North Carolina here, Miami showed that it belonged here by beating North Carolina on the road.

7. North Carolina– At 6-4, North Carolina gets a huge test against Virginia Tech this week.  Winning at the Hokies is rarely expected, but the Tarheels need to show that they can compete to maintain this slot.

8.  Wake Forest– So many close games for Wake Forest.  Playing Clemson to the wire is just another example of same.

9.  Syracuse–after three losses in a row, it is tempting to drop Syracuse to double-digits.  However, they still have wins over West Virginia and Wake Forest.  The latter is something that North Carolina State could not do.  A week off before taking on Cincinnati.

10.  North Carolina State– Losing to Boston College pretty much sums up this enigma of a team.  With Maryland coming up after the Clemson game, NC State can still get bowl eligible.

11. Pittsburgh— Beating Louisville to get to 5-5 made it tempting to slide Pittsburgh up a few notches.  With games @ West Virginia and hosting Syracuse to finish the regular season, this will be resolved on the field.

12.  Duke—Played Virginia tough before fading.  The Blue Devils get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–the win over NC State provided some good news for the fan base.  Upcoming games against Notre Dame and Miami may not make continued good news a safe bet.

14. Maryland- as if it couldn’t get worse, the drubbing by Notre Dame also featured a season-ending injury to Danny O’Brien.  At 2-8, it is difficult to see this team winning either of its two remaining games–both of which are on the road.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
13 Nov 2011
1 Comment

ACC Football Predictions (Post-Games Review)

ANYONE can make predictions… few are willing to face the music afterwards.  The Confidential turns directly towards the orchestra…

Florida St. (6-3) hosting Miami (5-4)

With all the history, it is hard to believe that this is an afterthought game this week.   In any event, who has any idea what Miami is?  They lost to terrible Maryland, but their others losses are to 3 teams with a combined record of 21-6.  Meanwhile, the wins over Ohio State and Georgia Tech are certainly decent.  Florida State is a bit easier to figure out, with losses to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest.  However, Florida State’s wins are over a sorry lot of teams.  While Florida State is at home, The Confidential meekly predicts a Miami upset.   Miami 27-Florida St. 20.

Actual score… Florida State 23-Miami 19.  Kudos to Florida State for keeping the momentum going.  With the youth on the Seminoles, it is not difficult to envision them returning to the top 10 next season.  Great recruiting classes will not hurt either.  Meanwhile, a nice comeback by Miami, but too little too late.  Had they converted the 2-point conversion after the second touchdown, who knows what happens?   Confidential Record: 0-1.

Clemson (8-1) hosting Wake Forest (5-4)

Clemson’s home victories include Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest’s road wins were against Duke and Boston College.  We like what Wake has done this year, but just do not see Clemson losing two in a row.  Clemson 35-Wake Forest 21.

Actual score… Clemson 31-Wake Forest 28.  Clemson put up over 500 yards of offense, but it was only barely enough as they won by a field goal.  With the win, Clemson clinches the division title and will play in the conference championship game.  Poor Wake Forest.  This team played well enough to win, but just fell short.  Confidential Record: 1-1.

Georgia Tech (7-2)  hosting Virginia Tech (8-1)

Fresh off a win over Clemson, hosting Virginia Tech is Georgia Tech’s opportunity to start chasing Clemson in the standings.  Before Clemson, Georgia Tech did not have a very impressive win.  The most impressive was likely North Carolina.  Virginia Tech took care of Wake Forest on the road and Miami at home.  In this instance, there is something about giving Frank Beamer all this time to prepare for Georgia Tech.  The unique offenses are vulnerable with extra time to prepare.  Virginia Tech 24- Georgia Tech 21.

Actual score: Virginia Tech 37-Georgia Tech 26.   Things are setting up quite nicely for a rematch between Clemson and Virginia Tech.  Va Tech has rallied quite well since losing to Clemson.  It would be ideal for both teams to keep the momentum and be 11-1 heading into the conference championship game.  The ACC could use the PR boost by having two top-10 teams square off.  Georgia Tech continues to be a tough team to figure out.  Confidential Record: 2-1.

Maryland (2-7) “hosting” Notre Dame (6-3)

Notre Dame has lost to Tulsa in recent years.  Nothing is off the table.  But Maryland has shown absolutely no sign of life recently.  The team peaked in Week 1 against Miami.  Not a good sign.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame has caused itself to lose in each of its three losses.  If they can protect the football, they win going away.  They likely will.  Notre Dame 35-Maryland 16.

Actual Score: Notre Dame 45-Maryland 21.  Hey, let’s hope that this is a conference game someday.   Let me clarify… an ACC conference game.  In any event, Maryland’s disaster season continues.  Notre Dame, in turn, is setting itself up for a nice bowl.  Confidential Record: 3-1.

Virginia (6-3) hosting Duke (3-6)

Duke has some mojo.  They have looked very good at times this year.  Of course, they also lost to Richmond.  Virginia’s head coach Mike London knows all about Richmond, going 24-5 there in two seasons.  If he can win this game, he will have his FBS record up to .500.  Virginia is looking good and at home.  They should win.  Virginia 33-Duke 21.

Actual Score: Virginia 31-Duke 21.  The Confidential NAILED this one.  Yeah, it was not the work of Nostradamus to pick Virginia over Duke here.  But how about that score?  Trying to figure out how Virginia did not pick up a safety.  Ah well.  Confidential Record: 4-1.

Boston College (2-7) hosting North Carolina St. (5-4)

The Tom O’Brien Bowl.  This one has the feel of an upset.  Boston College cannot be THIS bad.  North Carolina State is coming off a huge win over its rival.  If we have seen one thing this year, it is that momentum is fleeting.  The Eagles get the upset.  Boston College 21-North Carolina State 20.

Actual Score: Boston College 14–NC State 10.  The Confidential does not like to say “We told you so.”  No, the Confidential LOVES to say it.  People underestimate how hard it is to win on the road.  With the vultures circling the Eagles, they pulled the upset.  Don’t look now, but BC has more conference wins that 13 of its AQ conference brethren.  Meanwhile, NC State falls back to 5-5.  As is the case with a lot of programs, making the leap requires a team to win the games that it is “supposed to win.”  Confidential Record: 5-1.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
10 Nov 2011

ACC Football Predictions: November 12, 2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for games featuring current ACC teams:

Florida St. (6-3) hosting Miami (5-4)

With all the history, it is hard to believe that this is an afterthought game this week.   In any event, who has any idea what Miami is?  They lost to terrible Maryland, but their others losses are to 3 teams with a combined record of 21-6.  Meanwhile, the wins over Ohio State and Georgia Tech are certainly decent.  Florida State is a bit easier to figure out, with losses to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest.  However, Florida State’s wins are over a sorry lot of teams.  While Florida State is at home, The Confidential meekly predicts a Miami upset.   Miami 27-Florida St. 20.

Clemson (8-1) hosting Wake Forest (5-4)

Clemson’s home victories include Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest’s road wins were against Duke and Boston College.  We like what Wake has done this year, but just do not see Clemson losing two in a row.  Clemson 35-Wake Forest 21.

Georgia Tech (7-2)  hosting Virginia Tech (8-1)

Fresh off a win over Clemson, hosting Virginia Tech is Georgia Tech’s opportunity to start chasing Clemson in the standings.  Before Clemson, Georgia Tech did not have a very impressive win.  The most impressive was likely North Carolina.  Virginia Tech took care of Wake Forest on the road and Miami at home.  In this instance, there is something about giving Frank Beamer all this time to prepare for Georgia Tech.  The unique offenses are vulnerable with extra time to prepare.  Virginia Tech 24- Georgia Tech 21.

Maryland (2-7) “hosting” Notre Dame (6-3)

Notre Dame has lost to Tulsa in recent years.  Nothing is off the table.  But Maryland has shown absolutely no sign of life recently.  The team peaked in Week 1 against Miami.  Not a good sign.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame has caused itself to lose in each of its three losses.  If they can protect the football, they win going away.  They likely will.  Notre Dame 35-Maryland 16.

Virginia (6-3) hosting Duke (3-6)

Duke has some mojo.  They have looked very good at times this year.  Of course, they also lost to Richmond.  Virginia’s head coach Mike London knows all about Richmond, going 24-5 there in two seasons.  If he can win this game, he will have his FBS record up to .500.  Virginia is looking good and at home.  They should win.  Virginia 33-Duke 21.

Boston College (2-7) hosting North Carolina St. (5-4)

The Tom O’Brien Bowl.  This one has the feel of an upset.  Boston College cannot be THIS bad.  North Carolina State is coming off a huge win over its rival.  If we have seen one thing this year, it is that momentum is fleeting.  The Eagles get the upset.  Boston College 21-North Carolina State 20.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
07 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 7, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 7, 2011:

1.  Clemson–With the week off, no reason to demote.  Need to be focused against Wake Forest this week.

2. Virginia Tech–The fact that Miami handled Duke easily makes that narrow victory look a bit worse… but not enough to drop in the standings.

3. Georgia Tech–Florida State appears back on track.  Going to need to play well to hold them out of the #3 spot.  But with a game against the Hokies coming up, the focus is on rising to #2.

4. Florida State–Another dominant win, this time over hapless Boston College.  These are important wins for re-establishing the brand though.  A win over Miami would be huge.

5. Miami–A dismantling of Duke is nice, but let’s see how they do against Florida State.

6. Virginia–At 6-3, the Cavs are now bowl-eligible and looking good.

7. North Carolina State– Everyone else lost.  Not sure anyone deserved to be the #7 team. 

8.  Wake Forest– Played Notre Dame tough, but still a winnable game.   Needs just one win for bowl eligibility.

9.  Syracuse–two road losses in a row have Syracuse still a win away from bowl eligibility.

10.  North Carolina–no excuse for getting shutout.  This team has more talent than that.

11. Pittsburgh— Played Cincinnati tough, but in the end the loss of Ray Graham was too much to overcome.

12.  Duke—After taking the Hokies to the final minutes, Duke did not show up against Miami.  At 3-6, the bowl dreams are down to a flicker.

13. Boston College–they caught Florida State at a bad time, as the Seminoles are on a roll right now.

14. Maryland- dark days in College Park.  

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Nov 2011

ACC Football Predictions: Games for November 5,2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for games featuring two ACC teams (so as to not jinx any conference members):

Miami v Duke.

Miami has been a very difficult team to figure out.  Some losses make sense, others do not.  Duke is also hard to figure out.  While we saw Duke performing well this year at times, who saw a close game against Virginia Tech?  Upon further review, it probably says more about Virginia Tech than Duke.

Miami 24-Duke 13.

Florida St. v Boston College

Fresh off a win over equally hapless Maryland, it would be nice to predict an upset over the Seminoles.  No chance.  Florida State will roll.

Florida St. 38-Boston College 7*

North Carolina v North Carolina St.

I get that North Carolina State is at home.  I really do.  I also get that the Wolfpack are going to be emotionally charged up for this game.  I just think that North Carolina is a better team.  The dismantling of Wake Forest was impressive.  It is this year anyway.

North Carolina 35-NC State 27

Virginia v Maryland

Maryland is just awful.  I mean how bad is it when you lose to Boston College at home?  Boston College was a disaster itself.  This week will be a test of whether the Terps have quit on Randy Edsall.  It doesn’t look good.
Virginia 24-Maryland 16
* Due to a glitch, The Confidential simply neglected to make a timely prediction of the game.  There is no clairvoyance here.  We cheated.  All in good fun…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
03 Nov 2011
3 Comments

ACC Pre-Season Basketball Rankings

As is the case with football, it is a bit difficult to rank Syracuse and Pitt along with the ACC schools.  However, at this stage of the season, a lot of the difficulty is avoided.  After all, nobody has played anyone.  There are no wins or losses to compare/contrast.  So, without further delay, here it goes.

The Confidential’s 2011-2012 Preseason Basketball Rankings:

Tier 1: These fan bases will be disappointed if the dream ends before the Final Four.

#1.  North Carolina.  Maybe it was the risk of an NBA lockout, but when you have three guys of a caliber of Zeller, Barnes, and Henson return, you are going to be #1 in the ACC.  In fact, many have them #1 in the land.

#2.  Syracuse.  All but Rick Jackson return from a team that did quite well last year.  Plus, with Fab Melo down several pounds and much more mobile, there might not be a drop off in the middle.

#3.  Pitt.  More experience returning than Duke, so we’ll give Pitt the edge here.  This may look like a poor selection early on if Nasir Robinson is more seriously injured that it seems.

#4.  Duke.  Too much talent to rank any lower.  Sure, one can worry about the players that left this team, such as Kyrie Irving.  But this team just rotates in elite talent every year.

Tier 2: Big Dance or Bust

#5.  Virginia.  This was a team that won 7 conference games without Mike Scott.  Add him back into the mix and The Confidential sees good things happening.

#6.  Florida St.  Leonard Hamilton has this team on a bit of a roll.  After going 11-5 last year, there is little reason to doubt that the Seminoles will do well this year.

#7.  Virginia Tech.   Poor Virginia Tech.  It seems like every year they are on the bubble.  If they can finish in the top 5 of this year’s ACC, perhaps that will get them over the hump.

#8.  Miami.  I like Jim Larranaga.  After what he did at George Mason, it is hard not to root for him.  I do question how he will do with someone else’s players.

#9.  Georgia Tech.  Glen Rice has been a dominant player for what seems like 25 years now.  What?  That’s his son?

#10.  North Carolina State.  With Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State may be a bit underrated here.

Tier 3: NIT would be acceptable

#11.  Clemson.  Too much lost talent to be confident that this team will make a run.

#12.  Maryland.  Hopefully, this Maryland coaching transition will go smoother than the football transition.  At #12, this isn’t much smoother.

#13.  Boston College.  No real reason to put them #13.  However, it just feels bad for Boston College to be so down in both football and hoops.

#14.  Wake Forest.  Not persuaded that they are truly #14, but if the debate between #13 and #14 gets the blogosphere riled up…. that would be a strange combination of impressive and pathetic.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
02 Nov 2011
4 Comments

Future Big East vs. Future ACC

The recent addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC is great news for the future.  It is hoped that this move will rejuvenate football, strengthen basketball, add new lucrative markets, solidify the northern core of the conference, and perhaps lead to Notre Dame joining to really add juice to football.  That’s the easy part.

The fact of the matter is that it also weakens the Big East.  While the Big East was likely to lose a team or two anyway, the ACC’s move means that the Big East lost four total teams.  In addition, three of those teams–all but TCU–are great basketball schools too.  The Big East’s loss is the ACC’s gain.  But, forget basketball for a moment, this is all about football.

As of yesterday, the Big East has apparently sent out 6 invitations.  It is expected that these are football only invitations to Boise St., Air Force, and Navy.  It is also expected that these are all-sports invitations to UCF, Houston, and SMU.  While many have characterized this as a move of desperation, how will the future Big East stack up against the future ACC in football moving forward?

Actually, let’s take a step back.  From a prestige standpoint, the new ACC will absolutely crush the Big East.  Even the middle of the pack of the ACC will be name schools, such as Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, etc.  These are schools that have had football success in the past 15 to 20 years.  BCS appearances.  Bowl games.  National titles even.

Also, this is not about marketing and money.  The new Big East will have new markets, but not domination in markets.  Nobody carries NYC, home of Rutgers.  Louisville splits Kentucky with, well, Kentucky.  Cincy is second chair to Ohio State.  Houston and SMU are behind Texas, Texas A&M, and sometimes Oklahoma in the major Texas markets.  Boise St. is a small market.  Navy and Air Force are national, but nobody is turning in to watch Navy play anyone other than Army or Notre Dame.  USF and UCF still have to get over the big three in Miami, FSU, and Florida.  Needless to say, this is not about $$$ yet.  The ACC wins hands down.

But let’s just look at it from an on-field football performance scenario.  According to the CBS, the new Big East will have the current #5, #14, and #23 teams in the AP poll.  The new ACC will have #11, #12, and #22.  That’s pretty close.  Perhaps even an edge to the Big East?

To go beyond the top 25, one needs to look at the CBS Rankings.  While The Confidential does not pretend that these have any real merit, it is one (albeit very subjective and debatable) measuring stick.

The new Big East has #4 (Boise St.), #8 (Houston), #26 (Cincy), #42 (SMU), #47 (Rutgers), #53 (USF),  #67 (Louisville), #78 (Air Force), #81 (UCF), #92 (UConn), and #93 (Navy)

The new ACC has #10 (Clemson), #12 (Virginia Tech), #24 (Georgia Tech), #32 (UNC), #41 (FSU), #45 (Miami), #46 (Wake Forest), #51 (Syracuse), #58 (Virginia), #75 (NC State), #77 (Pitt), #87 (Duke), #101 (Maryland), and #104 (BC).

Top 25: ACC 3, Big East 2 (could easily be 3)

Top 50: ACC 7 (could be 8 with Syracuse), Big East 5.

Edge for the ACC.  Although it should be noted that the ACC does have more teams.  And the Big East does not have teams in the bottom 25.

The bigger question, of course, is whether Boise St., Houston, and SMU can sustain their current rankings.  The ACC knows that it will have 2 or 3 ranked teams every year.  By moving to 12 teams, the Big East makes it far more likely that they will avoid the embarrassment of finishing a season shut out of the top 25.

Finally, let’s not ignore schedule here.  If all teams played a schedule at the same level, there is little doubt that these rankings would get shaken up considerably.  Boise St. has played Georgia.  Cincinnati lost to NC State, despite the 50 placement gap in these CBS rankings.  Cincy destroyed NC State, but lost to struggling Tennessee.  FSU lost to Oklahoma.  Miami lost to Kansas State.  UNC beat Rutgers.  However, given that the Big East teams will not have the elite opponents on the schedule, they are going to benefit by having a better, but emptier, record.  This is something that the ACC will just have to overcome. But, all-in-all, it sure looks like the Big East is not going to fall off the map here.

What do you think?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
31 Oct 2011

ACC Football Rankings

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 31, 2011:

1.  Clemson–The Confidential is sticking with Clemson here.  Losing to Georgia Tech was disappointing, but not disastrous.

2. Virginia Tech–hard to move the Hokies after they only barely beat Duke.

3. Georgia Tech–the win over Clemson gets things back on track.

4. Florida State–dominant win over North Carolina State suggests that better times are ahead.

5. Miami–the loss to Virginia is a step backward.

6. North Carolina– Almost moved the Tarheels ahead of Miami.  Impressive win over Wake Forest.

7.  Syracuse– Hugely disappointing loss to Louisville.  They get the edge with the win over Wake Forest.

8.  Wake Forest–Needed that North Carolina win to get to the next level.

9.  Virginia– With wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, this is the one team that may be significantly underrated at this point.  The Confidential is feeling a bit guilty here.

10. Pittsburgh— A win over UConn without their best player gets them the nod here, but it may be a short-lived stay this high.

11.  Duke—Playing the Hokies close is better than getting shellacked by the Seminoles.  We still expect NC State and Duke to flip.

12. North Carolina State–hard to not penalize a team that did not score.  I am sure the Wolfpack will rise up a few slots soon enough.

13. Boston College– the head-to-head matters, but the fact that Maryland just seems to have quit on Edsall carries the day.

14. Maryland- Beating Boston College to go to 3-5 was imperative.  This team is reeling.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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