The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the month “May, 2012”

22 May 2012
1 Comment

Conference Realignment: A Hearsay Battle

There is a bitter twitter battle between the factions with an interest in the conference realignment issue.  You decide which to believe:

On the one hand, this triple hearsay was posted on Frank the Tank:

Stevesays:

Virginia AD says ACC has plan for Orange Bowl with Notre Dame and FSU not leaving.
(Very long, but worth it.) I copied this from a free Pitt message board.

UVA AD Littlepaige & BB Bennett met tonight at Marriot in Arlington, Virginia on the 14th Floor overlooking DC with UVA Top Alumni Contributors.

1. The UVA AD said these rumors were started by the Former Big-12 Commissioner that brought in Bowlsly and ONE FSU BOT Member that was totally ignorant on the ACC TV Deal. The Big-12 Third Tier TV Rights are meager for all schools except Texas, which will have $15 million that they will share just a few points with the conference schools. WVU, KU, KSU, ISU, Baylor, TT, TCU, and OKSU will be lucky to earn $500,000 from local TV & Radio. WV has just 174 High Schools and there not much more in Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa. The only school that matters in Texas is UT, Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech will not earn much either with the Longhorn Network dominating.

On the other hand, the ACC ESPN Third Tier TV Rights will be on ESPN Channels that everyone can find right away and expose them to Recruits that turn to those ESPN channels. The ACC will be paid far more than anything for those Third Tier Rights Nationally and can be sold to other Networks in other ACC Sports. They will be all shared and it is expected that those Rights sold to advertisers that way will bring in another $5 to $7 Million per schools based on how the schools are winning and being ranked. About the only school that will earn more is UT but not the entire BIG-12. ND is earning just $6 million right now from CBS. The Big Ten Per School gets about $8 Million from Fox Big Ten Network. So, the ACC Contract is far more national in scope and depth by having ESPN handling them and sharing all income with all schools, unlike the Big-12 or SEC or PAC-12. The amount cannot be disclosed right now until PITT & CUSE join and see the ratings that come in as National Advertisers bid higher for commercials on ESPN, well WVU, Kansas, or Iowa State have to advertisers selling manure or lower paying advertisers selling local products.

2. The reason why the Former Big-12 Commissioner is bragging so much is really out knowing the Big-12 almost collapsed last year. It is like a wounded Bear crying to keep predators away. The Big-12 TV Contract is not equal for all schools and that is the dirty little secret no one in the Big-12 wants out.

3. All the ACC Schools and AD’s are very happy with the ACC TV Deal and many aspects the ACC does not want to reveal for current and future Athletic planning for each school in the ACC. FSU is going nowhere and nothing the Big-12 can offer can make that happen.

4. The big talk now and although not a done deal is that the ACC is reaching out to Notre Dame for Two Plans:

PLAN A:
The ACC Conference Winner that does not qualify for a Playoff spot will play ND at the Orange Bowl every year as means to counter the Rose Bowl & BIG-12-SEC Bowl. Notre Dame sell outs every Bowl they play in and the Orange Bowl is delighted about this aspect.

SPORTS TV Executives feel that will be bigger and better than anything SEC-BIG-12 offers since mostly their Conference Winner with be #2 pick in most years and God Forbid KU or KSU or ISU or Baylor. Just like the Rose Bowl has often not sold out when the Big Ten or PAC-12 #2 Schools plays in it. However, Notre Dame faithful fans come out at most all ND Games played anywhere. This also keep ND from joining another Conference.

PLAN B:
The ACC also feels by having this Bowl Association with Notre Dame, they will play more ACC Teams every year, and eventually this mutual beneficial sharing of Bowl Money and goodwill result in ND coming to the ACC when it decides it is joining a conference if ever. The ACC although they want to have ND join is very happy at 14 right now and if ND wants to stay Independent and still be part of BEC BB and All Sports, fine. But the bottom line this is the best plan for a Big Post-Season Bowl than having to play the BEC or Mid-Major!

5. The ACC is very happy that PITT is coming to the ACC and said PITT will be there in 2013. The ACC is feels it has re-entered and won back the Pennsylvania-Ohio and New York-New Jersey Markets they lost when BC, Miami & VT left the Big east and few to none ACC Games were shown here. The WV Market is too small to even consider since the TV Stations are in Pennsylvania that carryover to OH and WV, as well as Philly and New York City that smothers New Jersey. ESPN is delighted about this aspect of the ACC TV Contract and so is the ACC. In addition, heavy consideration for ACC to locate ACC BB Tournament to New York City although some push back from UNC, DUKE, NCS, WAKE, and GT who want at least the Tournament to switch between NYC, Atlanta, and Greensboro!

6. Told personally to one key big alumnus that do not listen to the rumors put out by the Sports Reporters, Big-12 Bloggers, and uninformed posters due to being worried that the Big-12 is really a Big Two League that Texas demands to run as they want, and UT can decide anytime to leave and they can do nothing about it. Many in the Big-12 are very happy at 10 Schools anyway to date.

Closing:
Now this is coming from another ACC AD, and we heard from GT, FSU, PITT, UVA, VT, and CLEMSON AD’S on the solidarity of the ACC and playing Notre Dame every year will be just as exciting as anybody as their CF Program starts to recover.
This post was edited on 5/21 10:29 PM by CaptainSidneyReilly

5/21 10:01 PM | IP: Logged

On the other hand, this commentary appeared on twitter:

Greg Swaim ‏@GSwaim

@jbresette Not officially…but unofficially, it’s quite possible.

The #BigEast is virtually dead, and the #ACC is quickly dying…at least as far as the football world is conidered.

The #ND deal apparently was a catalyst for getting #FSU aboard all along. This thing is happening fast now for the #Big12…

I’m told that #ND will jump in #Big12 very soon with Olympic sports, and then football joins after TV contract expires. #BlowsMyMind

With #FSU & #ND quite possibly to the #Big12, and their precedent setting deal with the #SEC, the #B1G won’t want to sit around long either.

The agresssive #Big12 is forcing the #SEC to go for two more before Nienas grabs them. Best bets #VT and #NCState, but subject to change.

#ND to #Big12 has more teeth today than I ever thought it could just a few weeks ago. The Irish are already going through proper channels.

So there you have it.
The ACC is thriving and dying.  At least we sorted that out.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
20 May 2012

Expansion Talk Continues

Look, if you are an ACC fan, you better be nervous.  While the new bowl announced on Friday is bad news for the ACC, the Florida State fans–already a delusional group–are jumping on this as the latest indication that the ACC sky is falling.

In truth, it does give FSU a reason other than money to want to jump.  I mean, it would be great for them to take their 8-4 record to the Big XII and wonder who is going to play in the new bowl game that they will not qualify for.  After all, a few million dollars does not buy wins.  Unless you are cheating.  Hmmm… I guess that does sound like Free Sneaker U. might be making a comeback.  Maybe relevance will return for the Seminoles?  Long live the 1990s.

So… what happens if the FSU fans get their way and head off to the Dust Bowl conference?  Well, for one, none of us will have to listen to Florida State complain about their wookies being bent about every little thing that has ever not gone their way or might not go their way.  Seriously, they are crying about having to play in a Thursday game?   Good lord, grow a pair.

Still, gotta figure Clemson takes its delusional fanbase off to the midwest also.  That leaves two ACC openings.  Maybe even four.

My astute brother gets credit for this… but wouldn’t ESPN just love to find a new conference for UConn (near Bristol) and Central Florida (near Disney)?  Throw in Louisville and South Florida.   Now you are at 16 teams.  Miami has not one, but two partners in Florida.  Go to pods:

Way Up North: BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt

Deep South: Miami, USF, UCF, and Ga Tech

Southish: UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest

Mideast: Virginia, Va Tech, Maryland, Louisville

Sure, the academics are non-starters for a few of these schools.  But we are talking two very good basketball programs (UConn and Louisville) and two football programs with a ton of potential (USF and UCF).  From Florida to Boston, the ACC would cover the map (except South Carolina, sigh).

Frankly, the Confidential is not sure that this is a worse football conference.  I think most teams can hold West Virginia under 70 points.  And UConn has been to a BCS bowl more recently than Florida State.

Perfect?  No.

Doable?  Yes.

Especially if that is what ESPN wants…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
19 May 2012
2 Comments

Big XII-SEC New Bowl Game: Relax, ACC Fans

Apparently, ACC fans are all tearing their garments over the new Big XII-SEC game.  This is a HUGE over-reaction.  As will be explained below, if the ACC does not panic, it will come out in an acceptable position.

First, there is the Rose Bowl featuring the Big XII and Pac-12 champion.  Now, the Big XII-SEC champions will meet in a bowl game.  The common perception is that this means that those champions can simply meet to decide the national championship once and for all.  If so, the ACC and Big East schools are left out of the mix–forcing the ACC teams to scramble looking for one of the four superconferences to join.  Right?

Wrong.

Well, partially wrong.  If the ACC schools start scrambling… like a bank announcing it is almost out of money… the scramble will lead to an implosion of the ACC.  The fear is worse than the reality.  If everyone stays calm, however, the end result will be acceptable.

Think logically here.  Each of the four so-called superconferences is already on record as saying that they support using the bowl system to resolve the national championship issue.  Even the SEC/Big XII bowl will involve the best teams that are not part of the playoff.  If Alabama is #1, then Alabama will go into the proposed playoff bowl… not this new bowl.  Instead, the SEC runner-up will go to the new bowl.  Unless the runner-up is also part of the playoff.  And so on.

The bottom line is that an ACC champion with 0 or 1 losses is ALWAYS going to be part of the playoff picture.  Conversely, a 9-3 or 10-2 champion out of the Pac-12, B1G, SEC, or Big 12 might lead to those conferences being excluded from the playoff.

The response to that is this… well, what if those conferences to decide to just have their champions play for the title?  First, it will not garner national interest because a large segment of the country is not represented–i.e. the Northeast.  And, as it is situated now, the teams in ACC country are not represented either.  Is there going to be a plan that ignores the northeast?  That is unwise.

Second, the goal of the playoffs is to crown a national champion.  Suppose you have this scenario after the conference championships are resolved.  LSU: 13-0.  Florida: 12-1 (lost to LSU in the SEC CCG).  Texas: 12-1.  Ohio State: 13-0.  Oregon: 11-2.  If only champions go to the playoffs–this means that 12-1 Florida is excluded at the expense of 11-2 Oregon.  Automatically, this means that there is continued debate about the four included teams.  The second best team from a conference may very well be the second best team in the country–neutering the playoff.  This defeats the purpose of having a playoff altogether.  And we have seen conferences have the two best teams a number of times (think back to Ohio State/Michigan).  Not a rarity, at least.

Instead, the more logical solution is to take the 4 best teams for the playoff, using a seeded playoff structure.  More often than not, the Rose Bowl and this new bowl will feature the #2 and/or #3 teams from the SEC and Big XII.  Instead of those schools playing the last BCS qualifier in the Fiesta Bowl, they will just play each other.  This is essentially deciding how the #3 or #4 BCS bowl will be filled each year.

In a seeded 4-team playoff with the the above scenario, Oregon gets excluded.  Oregon ends up in the Rose Bowl against the #2 Big 10 team.  This is a result we have seen quite a bit in the past too.  LSU would play Texas and Ohio State would play Florida.  The winners would meet.  Or perhaps Florida State or Notre Dame is undefeated and bumps out Texas or Florida.  The public will accept an undefeated team playing a reasonably tough schedule taking the place of a 1-loss team.  As long as the ACC stays intact, its champion will have the cache to do so.  This is especially so if Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, or Virginia Tech is the ACC champion and undefeated.  As long as those schools have a tough OOC game on the schedule, all is well.

Now… is it possible that the four superconferences might divide up the ACC?  Sure.  Of course.  But that is only if the ACC schools panic and let it happen.  The only real negative to come out of this announcement is that the BCS system might be dead.  Might be.  Even in the worst case scenario, the Orange Bowl will still end up with a very good team to play an ACC champion with 2 losses.  Could be a Notre Dame… the #3 B1G team (Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin?)… etc.  The payout may not increase as much over time, but there will still be a nice payout.

The real challenge will be for the ACC to stay strong.  If the ACC stays together, it can weather this storm.  Because it is not really a storm in anyone’s eyes other than panicky ACC fans on the Internet.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
17 May 2012

The ACC TV Schedule for Football (Partial)

The ACC has released the TV football schedule for the first few weeks of the season and a few more games.  Here it is:

Date Game Network Time
Aug. 31 Tennessee vs. NC State ESPNU 7:30 pm
Sept. 1 Elon at North Carolina ACC Network 12:30 pm
Sept. 1 William & Mary at Maryland ESPN3 3 pm
Sept. 1 Richmond at Virginia RSN 3 pm
Sept. 1 Miami at Boston College ABC/ESPN2# 3:30 pm
Sept. 1 Murray State at Florida State ESPN3 6 pm
Sept. 1 Liberty at Wake Forest ESPN3 6:30 pm
Sept. 1 Auburn vs. Clemson ESPN 7 pm
Sept. 1 FIU at Duke ESPN3 7 pm
Sept. 3 Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech ESPN 8 pm
Sept. 8 Penn State at Virginia ABC Noon
Sept. 8 Ball State at Clemson ACC Network 12:30 pm
Sept. 8 Maine at Boston College ESPN3 1 pm
Sept. 8 Austin Peay at Virginia Tech ESPN3 1:30 pm
Sept. 8 North Carolina at Wake Forest RSN 3 pm
Sept. 8 Savannah State at Florida State ESPN3 6 pm
Sept. 8 Presbyterian at Georgia Tech ESPN3 7 pm
Sept. 8 Duke at Stanford TBA* TBA*
Sept. 8 Maryland at Temple TBA* TBA*
Sept. 8 Miami at Kansas State TBA* TBA*
Sept. 8 NC State at Connecticut TBA* TBA*
Sept. 15 Wake Forest at Florida State ESPN or ESPN2 Noon
Sept. 15 Bethune-Cookman at Miami ESPN3 Noon
Sept. 15 Connecticut at Maryland ACC Network 12:30 pm
Sept. 15 Furman at Clemson RSN 3 pm
Sept. 15 Virginia at Georgia Tech ESPNU 3:30 pm
Sept. 15 South Alabama at NC State ESPN3 6 pm
Sept. 15 North Carolina Central at Duke ESPN3. 7 pm
Sept. 15 Boston College at Northwestern TBA* TBA*
Sept. 15 North Carolina at Louisville ABC, ESPN or ESPN2 TBA*
Sept. 15 Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh TBA* TBA*
Oct. 6 Miami vs. Notre Dame (Chicago, Ill.) NBC 7:30 pm
Oct. 25 Clemson at Wake Forest ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 1 Virginia Tech at Miami ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 8 Florida State at Virginia Tech ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 15 North Carolina at Virginia ESPN 7:30 pm
Nov. 17. Wake Forest at Notre Dame NBC 3:30 pm
Dec. 1 Dr Pepper ACC Football Championship Game ABC 8 pm or ESPN 7:45 pm

Yes, we know what you are thinking.  How long will it take Florida State fans to complain that they have to play a 6 pm game on September 8th, and then turn around and play a noon game on September 15th?  The horror.  And just wait until Seminole fans figure out that their opponent on the 15th is Wake Forest, who Florida State cannot seem to beat anymore.  Three less hours to prepare = proof that the ACC hates Florida State.  At least the fans will have their excuse ready to go when the Demon Deacons win again….

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,
16 May 2012
1 Comment

A Question for ACC Leadership

While Florida State–primarily the Internet commentariat–is acting like a bunch of spoiled brats, the ACC office has some answering to do as well.  In particular, the math is a bit fuzzy as to why the individual ACC schools are worth so much more money separately than together.  Perhaps Florida State is right that the most recent television contract was not negotiated sufficiently.

Consider this fuzzy math.  The Big XII is reported to get $20 million per year.  It is known that the Big 10 and SEC are already in that range (or above it or will be above it).  The Pac-12 is too, but that is irrelevant to this discussion.

In order for any of these four conferences to justify adding teams, the added teams would have to be worth at least enough to allow themselves to be paid what the current conference schools are making–say $20 million.  But, in that case, the conferences would only be breaking even by adding a new team.  For example, if the Big XII is getting $20 million per school, with 10 schools that is $200 million.  If Florida State and Clemson joined, this would be 12 teams.  In order to break even, the Big XII would have to renegotiate its contract to allow payment of $240 million.  In order for each of the schools to get $22 million apiece (10% more), the contract would have to be for $264 million ($22M x 12).  If so, this means that Florida State and Clemson are worth $64 million to the networks–$32 million apiece.

There is talk that some conference would be interested in taking Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.  Even North Carolina State is thought to be on the SEC’s radar.  That is everyone except Pitt, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse.  Assume that only six schools of those ten schools are worth adding to a current conference.  In order for those conferences to grow by 10%, then those six schools must be worth at least $192 million to the networks.

And then assume the other eight schools are worth a total of $80 million–approximately 1/3 value of the six schools worthy of being poached.  That seems fair.  With four of those schools arguably being worth added to an existing conference, that is probably quite low.  In any event, even this low number works out to $272 million for 14 teams.  This is nearly $19 million per team.  That is more than the reported value of the ACC package from ESPN.

This suggests a few things.

First, and obviously, the above math is simply wrong.  And there is no formal indication that any conference wants anyone from the ACC. If Florida State is the only valuable commodity, then maybe the ACC is–ironically–safe from being poached.

Second, conferences might be willing to expand even if they do not increase the revenue to existing schools.  But why expand if there is nothing to be gained?  If you are Texas, why add a potential obstacle to the playoffs in exchange for no additional money?  Illogical.   Same for the B1G and SEC.  Why expand for the sake of expanding when you already have great brands?

Third, the ACC negotiated poorly.  The Confidential is not saying that the ACC was not in a tough situation by having its rights locked-in and the inability to start a bidding war.  But, at the same time, the thought of schools leaving should have been a key focus.  Even without the Big XII rumors, the SEC is sitting right there with the potential to add schools.  And ESPN just saved the Big XII.  Would the threat of ACC dissolution be enough to get ESPN to save it?  We may find out.  It might have been better to negotiate this up front to keep Florida State happy.  Somehow the ACC had to get some leverage over ESPN.  If it failed to do so, some blame has to fall on leadership.

The last option seems most likely.  If so, Florida State has a legitimate gripe that the ACC did not maximize the TV revenue.  If that is the case, ACC leadership has some explaining to do.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , ,
15 May 2012
1 Comment

Actually, Does the Big XII Really Want Florida State?

It has been said that these conference arrangements are like marriages.  They are 100-year decisions, not 10-year decisions.  The Confidential does not have a source handy, but will credit Frank the Tank for the observation.  Regardless of the source of that statement, it is true.  While it is apparent that Florida State is unhappy with its marriage to the ACC, the question is why the Big XII would want to be Florida State’s new spouse?

Picture this.  You go on a date with someone.  All they do is talk about how their ex-spouse was so awful.  At first, you are sympathetic.  But after a while it occurs to you that the problem is not the ex, it is the person across the dinner table from you.  These complaints are minor.  The ex had room to improve, but this person you are dating is way too spoiled, delusional, unrealistic, and unwilling to accept responsibility.  What do you do?  You run.  Sure, this may be an attractive person–which is valuable–but the long-term prognosis is awful.  This person will take away much more than they give in the long-run and be a pain-in-the-butt along the way.

As it relates to conference realignment, if FSU doesn’t like Tobacco Road, how are they going to like dealing with Texas?  If FSU is willing to bitch about Thursday games, officiating, and vague paranoia regarding pro-basketball sentiments, they are going to bitch in the Big XII.  If FSU does not like Wake Forest getting the same money (even though Wake has won 4 of 6 from FSU), how is it going to like Iowa State getting the same money?  If FSU fans are riled up over misinformation regarding third-tier rights from basketball–by teams that do not threaten their football team–how are they going to like Texas making $10 million more in third-tier rights AND using that to field a football  team that may very well keep FSU out of a 4-team playoff.  If FSU is willing to jump ship for $5 million, what is going to happen if the SEC is able to offer FSU $5 million more in 15 years?  It’s all about the money for FSU. The Big XII may not always have the best ability to pay FSU enough to be happy.

The bottom line is that FSU is a divorced, emotionally unbalanced, very attractive female with entitlement issues–jealous that her friends all drive Porsches, while she is “stuck” with the BMW that she picked out.  A school like Louisville would be a loyal, girl-next-door type, thrilled to trade in the Taurus for a BMW, much less a Porsche.  Who is the one that YOU marry?

And when you are not even sold on marriage at all, like Texas apparently is, all the more reason to ignore Florida State’s overtures.  Someone else can marry that problem.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
14 May 2012

FSU Fans Need a Reality Check

Another day, another day for FSU fans to flock to message boards crying about how the Atlantic Coast Conference has treated them so poorly.  If you read the message boards, this pretty much sums up the Seminoles fans:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crying about this, crying about that.  Having to play a Thursday game.  Having to play Clemson after a tough game against Oklahoma.  Having to share money.  Having to drink 2% milk instead of skim milk at the continental breakfast during a conference meeting in 2008.

The bottom line is this… Florida State has not really mattered in football in a long, long time.  From 2001 to 2011, no less than 3 losses.  81-50 is good, but hardly elite.  Oklahoma was 119-24 and Texas was 114-28 over the same period.  Florida State was 29th, behind Boston College, Louisville, and Hawaii.

Indeed, the last time Florida State was elite was 2000, when they were 11-2, losing to Oklahoma 13-2 in the Orange Bowl.  The year before, of course, the Seminoles were 12-0 and national champions.  And before 1999, Florida State’s record speaks for itself regarding its great run under Bobby Bowden.  At 109-13-1, Florida State had the best record of all teams during the 1990s.

But we are talking about the 1990s.  By comparison, Syracuse–a recent ACC addition–had the 14th most wins during the 1990s, ahead of Virginia Tech, Texas, Clemson, and Oklahoma.  Do Florida State fans really want to cling to the 1990s?

Again, from 2001 to 2011, we are talking a team that really did not put itself into national relevance at all.   That’s not the ACC’s fault.  That’s Florida State’s fault.

And, until Florida State fans can point to some real detriment in being in the ACC, the rest is just crying.  The Confidential says… “Man up and win more games, and then complain about your conference brethren.”

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , ,
13 May 2012
1 Comment

ACC: No Need to Panic, But Perhaps a Little Desperation May Be in Order

This Florida State to the Big XII stuff may not have much truth to it.  But where there is smoke, there may be fire.  And Florida State fans are just delusional enough to think that it’s everyone’s fault but their own that are a mediocre football school.  Delusional fans have led to conference switches in Missouri and Texas A&M.  That is reason enough for the ACC to perhaps not panic, but consider that this is THE TIME to do everything possible to keep Florida State happy.  If Florida State leaves, the whole party could come crashing down, with the SEC and Big 10 smelling blood.

Now, the ACC can play the Big East role and just hope that it does not hurt too much.  Or it can get proactive.  And, by proactive, that means ensuring that the conference remains football relevant.  If Florida State wants something–give it to them. So if I am running the ACC, I think the time has come to make a sweetheart offer to Notre Dame.  Specifically–offer Notre Dame and Navy membership as a package.

This converts a must-play game for ND into a conference game.  I know Navy is close to Maryland, but is Navy REALLY a threat to ever be a serious player with their admissions limitations?  And it is not like Navy is an inferior academic institution.  The only issue is basketball–and does that really matter in this big picture?  The goal is to keep the football schools happy for once.  Navy fits the geographical profile.

Then, go back to an 8-game schedule.  This allows FSU to schedule another home game, etc.  Again, the ACC favoring the football teams.  ND and Navy can each schedule 4 OOC games too.  That allows ND to schedule USC, plus three other games.  Navy gets Army, Air Force, and two more.

The loss of a 9-game schedule means 7 less games.  But adding Navy and ND adds in 8 more games (if calculating correctly).  Anyway, when you are talking adding ND, that has to add to the value of the conference slate.  Plus, Navy is no slouch either.  If you are ESPN and you can get Notre Dame into the mix, I am sure you can increase the ACC payout, plus perhaps allow some third-tier rights to stay with the schools.  The damage to NBC alone has to have some value.  We are talking Notre Dame here.

Why would ND do this?  They probably would not.  But if they did, it would be because:

  1. ND would get scheduling flexibility that no other conference could offer
  2. ND gets to have games from Boston to Miami and all points within.  Games against Syracuse can be played in NYC every other time.  Games against Pitt can be played in Philly every few times.  Games against Navy in DC.
  3. ND gets a place for its other sports that is far superior to the Big East.  ND basketball gets games against Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Pitt, Maryland, etc.  ND alums get a few games in Florida and the south.
  4. ND lacrosse joins up with Syracuse, Virginia, Duke, UNC, and Maryland.  Pretty darn good too.

It may be a pipe dream, but the ACC has something that no other conference has–access to the major media markets on the East Coast.  The ACC also has the potential for high-quality football.  Throw in outstanding academics and a fair balance of private/public schools and you have a reasonable fit for Notre Dame.  Willingness to take Navy would be the best way of ensuring the scheduling flexibility to keep ND fans happy.

Or, the ACC can sit on its hands and hope that some combination of Notre Dame, UConn, and Rutgers will someday appeal to Notre Dame.  But the ACC may not be football relevant at that point.  And football irrelevance would convert the ACC into the Big East 2.0–and that will never lure Notre Dame in.

So it is now or never.  If the ACC has any lure for Notre Dame, the time has come to use it.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
12 May 2012

No Sleepy Offseason—Florida State Officially Has Wandering Eyes

The Confidential was hoping that the period between the Big Dance ending and football starting could be a lazy, sleepy offseason.  A little lacrosse news, a little baseball news, some draft updates, etc.  Instead, it now looks like Florida State will be the latest school to enter the conference realignment fray.  Indeed, the Chairman of the Florida State Board of Trustees has indicated that the Seminoles should look into the Big XII conference.  Jimbo Fisher apparently tweeted something similar.  This legitimizes the rumors surrounding both Florida State and Clemson being dissatisfied with the ACC’s commitment to football.

Of course, the Confidential can sum up these rumors pretty succinctly.  Are you f-ing kidding me?

Florida State has done nothing on the gridiron for a decade now.  They have had four losses or more (usually more) every year since 2004.  This is a team that cannot win the ACC.  How are they going to compete in the SEC and Big XII?

I know, I know… the complaint will be that Florida State cannot compete without the money.  And the other schools make a few million dollars a year more.

Well, that is what they call an excuse.  A lame excuse, actually.  Florida State does not make less than Wake Forest.  If the Seminoles cannot beat the Demon Deacons on a regular basis, good luck with Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, LSU, etc.  It’s not money that makes those schools good.  It is competent recruiting, player development, and coaching on top of having elite status.  In other words, one cannot just say they are “elite,” they have to go out and prove it.  Even Texas, Florida, and Ohio State can have very mediocre seasons with the wrong mix of players and coaches. In any event, FSU has not been dominant as the elite football program in what its fans think is a weak football conference.  See the hypocrisy?

And Clemson?  Please.  At least Florida State was dominant 10 years ago.  Clemson has not beaten Big East schools in bowl games two years in a row.  Somehow, making several million dollars a year more than West Virginia and South Florida did not translate to wins on the field.

The Confidential is not suggesting that these schools cannot make a few million dollars by timing a move right.  But any fan of those schools thinking that their athletic fortunes will somehow change is just not paying attention.  Enjoy your extra money.  But don’t be surprised if the product on the field is not any better.  Money doesn’t make Penn State basketball or Indiana football relevant.

It’s just an excuse.  A lame one.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , ,
06 May 2012

2012 Lacrosse Bracket Released

The NCAA has released the bracket for this year’s lacrosse national championship. At 14-1, Loyola Maryland earned the #1 overall seed.  Perennial power Johns Hopkins is the #2 seed.   The ACC’s very own Duke is the #3 seed, while Notre Dame is the #4 seed.

All five ACC schools will be participants.  Syracuse had to win the Big East conference championship to qualify, but they did so.  But the Orange (9-7) were “rewarded” with a game against Duke (14-3).  The only ACC teams to have rematches in the tournament, Duke already defeated Syracuse earlier in the season, 12-10. The game will be played at noon on May 12, 2012, in Durham.

Virginia was given a #5 seed.  With such a hot start, it is disappointing for the Cavaliers to end up with only a 5 seed.  The Cavs (11-3) will play Princeton (11-4).   The game will be in Charlottesville on May 13, 2012, at 1:00 p.m.   Notre Dame is the top seed in the bracket.

North Carolina (11-5) is a #8 seed and landed an opening round matchup with Denver (8-6).  The game will be played at Chapel Hill on May 12, 2012, at 7:30 p.m.  Loyola is the top seed in the bracket.

Maryland (9-5) will travel to Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, to take on #7 seed and host, Lehigh (14-2).  The game will be played at 5:00 p.m. on May 12, 2012.  Johns Hopkins is the top seed in the bracket.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Lacrosse and tagged , , , , , , ,

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