The Confidential

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Archive for the month “October, 2012”

11 Oct 2012
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ACC Football Predictions for Week 7

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential struggled to a 4-4 record–the worse week of the season.   Still, the Confidential is at a respectable 49-15 so far.  On to the week 7 predictions:

Saturday October 13, 2012

#18 Louisville (5-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-3), 11:00 a.m.   Pitt has been an enigma.  When you believe in them, they fail.  When you give up on them, they pull the upset.  The Confidential believes that they have the best coaching staff in the Big East.  But Pitt will rise to the occasion and defend its home turf.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Louisville 21.

Syracuse (2-3) @ #20 Rutgers (5-0), Noon.   It is no secret that the Confidential is a “homer” when it comes to Syracuse, but rarely predicts based on that homer nature.  It is a jinx-risk thing.  But Rutgers will have the better season when it is all said and done.  Rutgers schedules smart and develops the confidence of its teams.  Syracuse’s challenging schedule has undermined its team confidence.  Prediction: Rutgers 21, Syracuse 19.

Duke (5-1) @ Virginia Tech (3-3), 12:30 p.m.  In most years, this would be a 30-point spread and an easy selection of the Hokies.  But those records cannot be ignored–they are saying something else.  The Confidential has been burned by the Hokies repeatedly this year, but will give them one more chance to show that they are not imploding.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Duke 21.

North Carolina (4-2) @ Miami (4-2), 2:30 p.m.  The Sanctions Bowl!  Look, North Carolina has had a nice season, and Miami has been blown out by top foes on the road.  But note that Miami is home for this game.  That is a huge edge for the Hurricanes.  Prediction: Miami 30, North Carolina 22.

Maryland (3-2) @ Virginia (2-4), 3:00 p.m.  Who saw this coming?  Maryland with more wins than Virginia?  One of Virginia’s wins being a luck win against Penn State?  It is what it is.  If it is a fluke, this will be the week that puts the teams back on their expected course.  Prediction: Virginia 24, Maryland 14.

Boston College (1-4) @ #12 Florida State (5-1), 5:30 p.m.  The Seminoles could not avoid a letdown last week.  They were their own worst enemy.  Boston College just does not have the horses to play with Florida State.  If the Seminoles lose, they have the wrong coaching staff, plain and simple.  Prediction: Florida State 56, Boston College 10.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Oct 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 7

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 7 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (5-0): Nobody is looking as good as Alabama right now, but this has been a weird year.  Nobody seems safe.  Next up: @ Missouri.
  2. Oregon (6-0): The Ducks have looked as dominant as ever.  Will they win the Pac-12 this year?   Next up: @ Arizona State.
  3. Notre Dame (5-0): The Fighting Irish have beaten a decent trio of teams in Michigan, Michigan State, and Miami.  Purdue is no slouch either.  Next up: Stanford
  4. Florida (5-0): The Gators stopped beating up on the SEC mediocrity and took care of LSU.  The East needed that win.  Next up: @ Vanderbilt.
  5. Kansas State (5-0): Kansas State destroyed Kansas.  Having already beaten Oklahoma, they get the edge over West Virginia and South Carolina.  Next up: @ Iowa State.
  6. West Virginia (5-0): The Mountaineers look outstanding.  The Big XII “defenses” are even less of a challenge than the Big East.  Who woulda thunk?  Next up: @ Texas Tech.
  7. South Carolina (6-0): The Gamecocks had no trouble with Georgia and have been quite good this year.  This week is another big test though.  Next up: @ L.S.U.
  8. Ohio State (6-0).  After walloping Nebraska, Ohio State suddenly looks to be “back.”  This week should not change anything.  Next up: Indiana.
  9. Florida State (5-1): After beating Clemson and then South Florida on the road, a letdown against NC State was not unexpected.  A loss was.  Next up: Boston College.
  10. Oklahoma (3-1): The Sooners may have lost to Kansas State, but that is a good football team.  Red River Rivalry Week!  Next up: Texas.
  11. LSU (5-1):  Unlike Georgia, LSU kept it close against Florida.  Another big test this week for the Tigers though.  Next up: South Carolina.
  12. Georgia (5-1): Georgia is supposed to be good.  But “good” teams put up a bigger fight against their conference rivals.  Next up: @ Kentucky.
  13. Louisville (5-0): The Cardinals have been OK this year.  Not truly tested yet though.  Next up: @ Pittsburgh.
  14. Southern California (4-1): The Trojans need some impressive victories.  So far, nothing too special in that regard.  Next up: @ Washington.
  15. Oregon State (4-0).  The Beavers are 4-0–who thought that would happen?  One of the year’s big surprises for sure.  Next up: @ Brigham Young.
  16. Clemson (5-1).  Next up: Virginia Tech.
  17. Texas (4-1). Next up: Oklahoma.
  18. Rutgers (5-0).  Next up: Syracuse.
  19. Louisiana Tech (5-0). Next up: Texas A&M.
  20. Mississippi State (5-0).  Next up: Tennessee.
  21. Cincinnati (4-0). Next up: Fordham.
  22. Ohio (6-0). Next up: Akron.
  23. Michigan (3-2).  Next up: Illinois.
  24. Nebraska (4-2).  Next up: @ Northwestern.
  25. Boise State (4-1).  Next up: Fresno State.

* * *

121. Kentucky (1-5).  The Wildcats have played some good teams, but 1-5 is 1-5.

122. Colorado (1-4).  After beating Washington State, the Buffaloes gave away their momentum with a blowout loss to UCLA.

123. Boston College (1-4).  Losing to Army is a good way to stay on this list.  So good work, B.C.

124. Kansas (1-4).  Kansas loses to instate rival by 40+ points, so Weis decides to practice without the Seniors.  How does that help anything?  The Peter Principle.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
08 Oct 2012

ACC Football Rankings: October 8, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of October 8, 2012:

1.  Florida State (5-1)–With its win over Clemson, the Confidential simply cannot punish the Seminoles for its road loss to North Carolina State THAT much.  There is plenty more time for Clemson to show it deserves this spot over the team that it lost to.

2. Clemson (5-1)–In beating Georgia Tech, Clemson has itself set up nicely to pounce if/when Florida State disappoints next.  The Tigers need to focus on running the table in the ACC and worry about its conference rival South Carolina only when that game week approaches.

3. Duke (5-1)–Duke keeps winning.  That Stanford loss looks worse now, but who had the Blue Devils playing for bowl-eligibility in mid-October?  Give credit where it is due.

4. North Carolina State (4-2)–Before the weekend, Florida State was in the national title picture.  After this weekend, they are not.  Credit North Carolina State for making that happen.

5. North Carolina (4-2)–The Tar Heels finally beat someone with some talent–the very talented Virginia Tech Hokies.  They’ll have to prove that the deserve to stay in this spot when they visit Miami this week.

6. Miami (4-2)–Miami has yet to lose in conference play, but they have been simply awful against top 10 teams out of conference.  They have been outscored 93-16.  Not a typo.  Wow.

7. Maryland (3-2)–Well, the Terrapins are above .500.  They kept it as close against West Virginia as anyone all year.  The best wins are Temple and Wake Forest though.  Ugh.

8. Wake Forest (3-3)–The Demon Deacons beat North Carolina.  Virginia Tech did not.

9. Virginia Tech(3-3)—Not that Wake Forest has done THAT much to be ahead of Virginia Tech.  But Virginia Tech is struggling in a way that we have not seen under Frank Beamer.

10. Syracuse (2-3)–Syracuse was desperate for a win and got it, defeating Pitt 14-13.  A pretty ugly win though.

11. Pittsburgh (2-3)—At least Pitt has a nice win over Virginia Tech.  They lost a lot of momentum with that Syracuse loss though.

12. Georgia Tech (2-4)–The loss to Clemson was not bad, but the Georgia Tech resume is just not that impressive.  They did beat Virginia though.

13. Virginia (2-4)–That lucky win over Penn State looks nice.  But otherwise Virginia has been awful.

14. Boston College (1-4)–For a few weeks, the Confidential has been saying that Boston College doesn’t deserve to be #14.  Losing to Army?  There, now they deserve it.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
07 Oct 2012

ACC Weekend Football Recap: October 7, 2012

Well, another week is in the books for the ACC and its national title hopes are in the dumpster.  It is not Florida State’s fault that the ACC is out of the national title picture, but it is Florida State’s fault that the Seminoles are.  The ACC’s other “BCS hopefuls” looked particularly poor also, with Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami all losing.  Simply put, the ACC continues to mire itself in football mediocrity.

Here are the current standings:

Atlantic Conference W-L Overall W-L
Maryland 1-0 3-2
Clemson 2-1 5-1
Florida St. 2-1 5-1
N. Carolina St. 1-1 4-2
Wake Forest 1-3 3-3
Boston College 0-2 1-4
Coastal Conference W-L Overall W-L
Miami (Fla.) 3-0 4-2
Duke 2-0 5-1
North Carolina 1-1 4-2
Virginia Tech 1-1 3-3
Georgia Tech 1-3 2-4
Virginia 0-2 2-4

So there you have it.  Maryland, of all teams, is leading the Atlantic division.  And Miami and Duke are pacing the Coastal division.  If you bet $5 in Vegas on a Duke-Maryland championship game, you’d be looking for an island somewhere to purchase.  But that’s a possibility (mathematically).

It was not all bad for the ACC.  Duke rising to the occasion to beat Virginia IS a good story.  Virginia remains a dumpster fire, but Duke has not beaten Wake Forest and Virginia–neither team expected to be as bad as they currently are.  A Duke surge in football will be national news.  Clemson beating Georgia Tech continues the legitimacy of the Tigers.  And if Clemson can run the table and defeat a very hot South Carolina team in the process, they will be a legitimate BCS entry for the conference.  Similarly, Florida State running the table would include a defeat of currently surging Florida, accomplishing the same thing.  North Carolina State deserves some kudos for defeating Florida State too.  And we’ll be generous and call the Syracuse-Pitt pillow fight on Friday night a “defensive struggle,” as both teams have had decent offenses all season that were stifled by good performances on the other side of the ball.  These are all good things.

But it was mostly bad.  The ACC could have used a return to relevance by Virginia Tech, but the Hokies lost to North Carolina.  Not sure what is going on with Frank Beamer’s team, but it is not good.  Georgia Tech looked better in losing to Clemson, but 2-4 really was not expected.  That close loss to Virginia Tech looks worse and worse each week too.  Boston College losing to Army simply confirms that the program is in trouble right now.  And Miami remains an enigma–showing no signs of being able to compete on the national stage with another out-of-conference blowout loss.  That suggests that the ACC is that weak nationally–a 3-0 team in conference cannot stay within 30 points of top 10 teams.

There is little to point to defend ACC football in 2012.  At this point, it will be a battle for respect once again.  It is disappointing that the conference is in “wait ’til next year mode,” but it is what it is.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Oct 2012
1 Comment

NC State Stuns Florida State

I am sure it is the ACC’s fault somehow, but Florida State has once again failed to rise to the occasion.  North Carolina State was able to defend its home field and defeat the Seminoles, 17-16.   With that, the last unbeaten team in the ACC goes down.  Well, unless you want to count Notre Dame.

For Florida State, it was not Clemson or Florida or Miami or Virginia Tech.  It was unranked North Carolina State.  The same team that lost to Tennessee.  The team with wins over an FCS program, a Sun Belt team, and 3-3 UConn.  This is a game that any truly elite program needs to win.  For all the talent in Tallahassee, it just fails to happen again and again.

This is not a situation where Florida State is losing to a wealthy SEC or Big 10 team.  This was equally compensated North Carolina State.  So, Seminole fans, don’t tell us the TV deal has anything to do with it.

And who has the tougher schedule?  Florida State got Clemson and then a struggling USF team before facing NC State.  Meanwhile, NC State had to return from a trip to Miami to host Florida State.  Florida State’s schedule is pretty nicely set up with winnable games alternating against soft games.  Had the Seminoles simply swapped Savannah State and USF on the schedule somehow, the schedule would have been perfect.  Even so, it is not an excuse.

A lot of teams have one loss.  And only one or two teams will end up undefeated, if any.  There is no shame in having a one-loss season.  Just don’t make excuses, Seminole fans.  It is what it is.  Another year of losing to a North Carolina school that should be beaten handily.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , ,
04 Oct 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 6

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential nailed the Miami, Louisiana Tech, and Cincinnati wins last week.  Did not see the Georgia Tech loss (much less the margin of loss) or Duke wins though.  Still, the Confidential is at a robust 45-11 so far.  On to the week 5 predictions:

Friday October 5, 2012

Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Syracuse (1-3), 7:00 p.m.  Pitt started cold, but has been pretty good lately.  Syracuse starts every game cold, but has warmed up considerably in the second half in all games except Minnesota.  All signs point to Pitt being the team headed in the right direction.  And Syracuse has not beaten Pitt since… well, we’d have to look it up.  THAT long.  Prediction: Pitt 28, Syracuse 20.

Saturday October 6, 2012

Boston College (1-3) @ Army (0-4), Noon.   Both teams could use a victory.  Army just lost to FCS stud team Stony Brook, while BC has only beaten FCS New Hampshire.  Army is not going to lose out, but Boston College just needs this game way too much.  A loss could mean a coaching change.  Prediction: Boston College 27, Army 20.

Virginia Tech (3-2) @ North Carolina (3-2), 12:30 p.m.  Virginia Tech is just not its normal self this year.  North Carolina is able to blow out overmatched opponents, but cannot beat the solid ones.  Virginia Tech is not overmatched.  They may even be better than solid.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 20.

Virginia (2-3) @ Duke (4-1), 3:00 p.m.  The Blue Devils can smell a bowl game.  Virginia is having an unimpressive year.  This is Duke’s chance to be more than just a basketball school.  You have to win the winnable home games to take the next step.  Prediction: Duke 30, Virginia 21.

Georgia Tech (2-3) @ Clemson (4-1), 3:30 p.m.  The Bees are in trouble.  The Tigers are coasting.  Georgia Tech should be motivated after a humiliating loss.  Clemson must remain focused on a talented, but struggling opponent.  Clemson likely has too many weapons right now.  Prediction: Clemson 42, Georgia Tech 24.

Wake Forest (3-2) @ Maryland (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  Wake Forest could be in Duke’s shoes right now–2/3 the way to a bowl game.  Instead, Wake has to look at a game like Maryland as a game that it needs to win.  Maryland has been much improved this year.  Edge to the home team.  Prediction: Maryland 24, Wake Forest 21.

Miami (4-1) @ Notre Dame (4-0), 7:00 p.m.  The game of the day.  In 2015, this will be a conference game.  For now, it is matchup of two teams that dominated the past, but have struggled in the present.  Anything can happen in this game.  But Brian Kelly has the Fighting Irish defense looking very good.  Prediction: Notre Dame 21, Miami 16.

Florida State (5-0) @ North Carolina State (3-2), 8:00 p.m.  The Seminoles need to avoid a letdown every week.  They are their own worst enemy.  Or best enemy–if they just stay focused, they can beat anyone.  They certainly can defeat NC State–even on the road.  Prediction: Florida State 34, North Caroline State 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
03 Oct 2012

ACC Pares Back Football Schedule

In a move that is sure to placate the football schools within the conference, the ACC has announced that it will be shifting back to an 8-game conference schedule.  The addition of Notre Dame to the football schedule in 2015 was at least part of the impetus for the change. This will allow the football-centric schools, particularly Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson, to continue to play their SEC rivals and have some additional scheduling flexibility.

The basketball slate will remain 18 games per season, although teams will now have two “primary” opponents that they play each season.  The ACC announced these pairings:

Boston College – Notre Dame and Syracuse
Clemson – Florida State and Georgia Tech
Duke – North Carolina and Wake Forest
Florida State – Clemson and Miami
Georgia Tech – Clemson and Notre Dame
Maryland – Pitt and Virginia
Miami – Florida State and Virginia Tech
North Carolina – Duke and NC State
NC State – North Carolina and Wake Forest
Notre Dame – Boston College and Georgia Tech
Pitt – Maryland and Syracuse
Syracuse – Boston College and Pitt
Virginia – Maryland and Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech – Miami and Virginia
Wake Forest – Duke and NC State

It is really hard to quibble with these pairings.  Certainly Pitt would prefer to play Notre Dame, but most teams probably would.  Given that Syracuse will probably have to have its football games against the Fighting Irish be played in New York City, the conference was nice to give the Orange a pair of games.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Football and tagged , , ,
03 Oct 2012

NCAA Watching Tobacco Road

Separated by just several miles, Duke and North Carolina purport to be the class acts of the Atlantic Coast Conference, if not the country.  Unfortunately, the two schools are struggling to stay out of the news regarding their potential violations of NCAA rules.  It is not clear that the two schools will be able to avoid sanctions and penalties.

In fact, although the Confidential previously noted that North Carolina appeared safe, that same entry observed that this situation was fluid.  And now NCAA President Mark Emmert is indicating that North Carolina may not be out of the proverbial woods yet.  Even so, Emmert stopped well short of stating that North Carolina would be sanctioned: “We’ll continue to monitor the situation and see what the facts are as they unfold from the investigations that [UNC] is involved with,” Emmert said. “… And [then we’ll see] if there’s anything further that we need to do at that time.”  Thus, Tar Heels fans (and enemies) can only sit back and wait for more details to emerge.

Speaking of enemies of Chapel Hill, Duke has its own issues.  Former Duke starter Lance Thomas somehow purchased nearly $100,000 during his final year in school.  Emmert noted that the lack of cooperation by Thomas and the jewelry store would not prevent the NCAA from imposing penalties on Duke:

“We certainly could deal with a case where we don’t necessarily have cooperation from the actors, but we still have to rely on facts and rely on well-established information,” Emmert said while making it clear he was speaking in general terms and not specifically about Duke’s situation. “It occasionally drives fans out there crazy because they’ll read in a blog or some other source that this or that happened. But the standards of evidence that we use are pretty darn high because we’re dealing with people’s lives here. … We have to go out and make sure we can verify all that facts, and that’s always a big challenge [without cooperation].”

Importantly, the Thomas season at issue was the year that Duke won the national title, 2009-2010.  So sanctions against Duke could lead to a vacation of that accomplishment.

So, if you hate one or both of Duke or North Carolina, stay tuned.  Emmert and the NCAA are keeping an eye on both situations.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Uncategorized
02 Oct 2012
2 Comments

ACC Football Rankings: October 1, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of October 1, 2012:

1.  Florida State (5-0)–With a win over South Florida, the Seminoles showed that they can avoid a let down.  The Seminoles control their own destiny and are looking very very good.

2. Clemson (4-1)–By dispatching Boston College, the Tigers are trying to stay in contention should Florida State slip up. So far, so good.

3. Miami (4-1)–Miami is now 3-0 in conference play.  Who saw that coming after the Week 2 blowout loss to Kansas State (a legit team)?  Is this the year that the Seminoles and Hurricanes finally meet up in the ACC Championship Game?

4. Duke (4-1)–Duke is not supposed to be for real, but the wins just keep adding up for the Blue Devils.  What team with a worse record deserves this spot more?  Exactly.

5. Virginia Tech (3-2)–The Hokies are not having a typical season.  And being slid into the 5th spot is more of a reflection on the implosions elsewhere in the conference.

6. North Carolina State (3-2)–NC State’s game against Miami was the type of game it needs to win to turn the corner.  Of course, this is a statement that gets said for this program multiple times a year it seems like.

7. Wake Forest (3-2)—The Demon Deacons could be #4 in this list, but the loss to Duke caused this drop.  At least they beat the Tar Heels.

8. North Carolina (3-2)–The Tar Heels have done a nice job of beating the teams they are supposed to beat.  Much of the ACC cannot say that, unfortunately.

9. Pitt (2-2)–Despite losing its first two games, Pitt looks to have righted the ship.  Big game against Syracuse this week.

10. Maryland (2-2)—Give credit to Maryland-at least they are much improved over last year.  With all the mediocrity, the Terrapins may yet make a bowl.

11. Georgia Tech (2-3)–Hard to explain what is going on in Georgia Tech.  But they have generally looked better than Virginia.

12. Virginia (2-3)—Virginia has looked worse than their 2-3 record suggests.  In danger of dropping lower.  

13. Syracuse (1-3)–Syracuse is desperate for a win.  Pitt is going to be a tough foe.

13. Boston College (1-3)–Boston College doesn’t deserve to be #14.  They are playing tough teams.  No impressive wins yet.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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