The Confidential

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Archive for the month “March, 2013”

08 Mar 2013
5 Comments

The ACC and the March “Bubble”

It’s that time of year, again.  Mediocre basketball teams all across the United States are making the case as to why their 10-loss season is superior to someone else’s 10-loss season.  It was an annual ritual for Virginia Tech, until they decided to fire Seth Greenberg and avoid the whole hassle altogether.  Expected disappointment is better than shocking disappointment, perhaps.  In any event, with March Madness around the corner, there are plenty of ACC “locks”: Louisville, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Notre Dame.  That is a TON of talent.  So who is left on the proverbial “bubble,” right now?

ESPN believes that there are two, but only two, ACC teams on the bubble:

Virginia [20-10 (10-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 132] The Cavaliers are good. They just seem determined to prove otherwise. That is the best explanation I can come up with for Virginia’s past three games, which began with as promising an RPI victory as a bubble team can get in last week’s win over Duke. UVa looked great against the Blue Devils, not only controlling pace but playing some really deep, smart defense, and all of the positive efficiency trends we’ve seen from Virginia for so much of the season were on full display. And then, of course, the Cavs lost at Boston College, and followed that up with Thursday night’s loss at Florida State. That all but deletes whatever positive profile boost they got from the Duke win, and will keep them mired in the bubble mess even with a win over Maryland in the ACC regular-season closer Sunday.

Maryland [20-10 (8-9), RPI: 84, SOS: 121] As soon as Maryland fell to UNC at home Wednesday, the pronouncements started coming far and wide (OK, maybe just on Twitter): Maryland’s done! They’re going to the NIT! Loud noises! I wouldn’t discount them so fast. Sure, the Terps’ profile isn’t great and they were already on the wrong side of the bubble before Wednesday’s loss. But I’m not sure how much a loss to UNC hurts you at this point, and the bubble doesn’t really operate on opportunity cost. Is Maryland really in worse shape now? Either way, the Terps weren’t in a great spot before the night started, and now they almost certainly need to win at Virginia this weekend in what could end up being a do-or-die bubble showdown. It’s a race to the finish.

Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, unfortunately, has Virginia and Maryland on the wrong side of the bubble.  Joe Lunardi of ESPN had Virginia in, but Maryland out.  But then Virginia lost to Florida State on Thursday, apparently causing them to drop out.

Interestingly, Maryland plays Virginia on Sunday–a 6:00 pm start and a great way to finish the ACC regular season.  What do you think?  Is this essentially a “play-in” game?

Or do both teams need to each do serious damage in the ACC tournament to have a chance?  Or are both doomed, absent winning an automatic bid?

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Opinion, Schedule and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
06 Mar 2013
16 Comments

The Case for Navy to the ACC

Look, nobody knows what is going on with the rumors regarding teams leaving the ACC.  Depending on where you choose to read, the ACC may be extremely strong right now or extremely vulnerable.  The Confidential remains of the opinion that the absence of a grant of rights deal confirms that the Conference is at least somewhat vulnerable.  But, assuming it is not, there is still the issue of Notre Dame’s partial membership.  While the Confidential understands the lure of Connecticut and Cincinnati, and maybe even Temple, the Confidential would also like to make the case for Navy as the 16th school.

First, Navy could be considered in the same exact format as Notre Dame–a partial football schedule, with membership in the remaining sports.  Perhaps Notre Dame and Navy could split one share of the revenue somehow unless/until full football membership was resolved.

Picture this for divisions, with cross-over above/below:

Atlantic: Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest

Coastal: Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, NC State

If ND and Navy could commit to the 7 division games, plus an 8th game between the two teams, this should make everyone happy and wealthier.  ND would still have 4 more games to spread among its OOC foes, such as USC and various Big 10 schools.  And the ACC Championship game could include Notre Dame.

Frankly, Navy has not been that bad in football anyway.  Credit Paul Johnson for putting them back on the map.  They are not a pushover.

Or, if ND/Navy are reluctant to go that high in terms of # of games, just keep them in parentheses… playing 5 games, plus the 6th game with each other.

Those divisions still work for hoops too.

Second, Navy is a fine academic institution.  There is no downgrade there.

Third, Navy has a lacrosse team, which would give the ACC its 6th lacrosse-playing school.

Fourth, Navy is located in the very place vacated by Maryland.  While Navy does not have the local following that Maryland does, it certainly has the national following.

Fifth, while its basketball team will always be undermanned, is that the worst thing for the conference?  There is already plenty of competition to get to the Big Dance.  And if Navy ever DID make it… they would have the whole country rooting for them.  Needless to say, Navy has not done well outside of the David Robinson era anyway.  So it’s no loss for the institution.

Finally, this keeps the UConn/Cincinnati debate alive should the ACC suffer additional losses.  It is likely that future expansion will be in pairs.  So adding those two teams together remains possible for backfill purposes.

What do you think?  Why yes or no?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Mar 2013
8 Comments

Fast Forward: The ACC in 2016?

It’s 2016 and conference realignment has slowed down.  Again.  As most expected, the Atlantic Coast Conference has survived another round of unsubstantiated rumors and quasi-sourced reports from university big wigs and industry executives.  Overall, the past few years have proven quite productive in terms of membership and revenue.

A combination of ESPN affirming its financial commitment to the conference and the additions of Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati and Connecticut have made way for a 16-team league which boasts a great amount of competitive talent, geographic diversity and athletic tradition.

The ACC now has eight teams competing in men’s lacrosse with Cincinnati, Louisville and UConn adding the niche sport to their athletic departments.  Six of the league’s baseball teams are firmly in the Top 25 and seven teams are regulars in the women’s basketball Top 25.

College football has gradually improved over the past two years.  The Seminoles and Tigers have continued their top-tier presence in the rankings and Virginia Tech, Louisville, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh add some needed depth to the conference schedule.  NC State, Connecticut and Syracuse are steadily improving, the Tar Heels are sanction-free and competitive and Georgia Tech has awoken from its talent slumber.

College basketball is absolutely phenomenal.  Along with the annual Tobacco Road matchup, Syracuse-UNC has become epic in its short existence and Pitt has become quite the foe of Duke, NC State and Virginia.  Much anticipated matchups between Duke and Louisville and Connecticut and North Carolina have also given way to intense conference-wide games with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.  The conference now boasts seven teams with national championship histories.

Although there is much competition among the field in both basketball and football, there is a great amount of talent at the top.  Many believe multiple ACC representatives will punch cards to the Final Four and there is guarded optimism a team will soon vie for the Coaches’ Trophy at Cowboys Stadium.

As with anything, it takes vision, determination and patience to see a great idea through to fruition.  The ACC is no different.  Fantasies often begin with unrealistic expectations while goals are accomplished through steady hard work and practical ambitions.

Congratulations, ACC!  You had the nerve and foresight to persevere and maintain your athletic tradition while maintaining and promoting solid academics.  The Confidential looks forward to many more years of ACC excellence.

**Is this article fantasy or realistic? Join the discussion below and let the Confidential know your opinion.

Posted by MBenjAdams in ACC only, Baseball, Basketball, Conference Realignment, Football, Lacrosse, Louisville Correspondent, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Mar 2013

ACC Lacrosse Season is Underway

After football and basketball, lacrosse may be the most popular sport in the ACC.  At the very least, it has several GREAT teams participating in it: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland.  Starting soon enough, Syracuse and Notre Dame will be part of the mix too.

The current national standings are as follows:

1 Maryland (22) 4-0 1
2 Notre Dame (3) 3-0 2
3 Cornell 3-0 5
4 Loyola (MD) 4-1 4
5 Princeton 2-0 12
6 Johns Hopkins 3-1 3
7 Denver 4-1 10
8 Ohio State 4-0 13
9 Virginia 4-1 6
10 Syracuse 2-1 16

That means 4 of the top 10 schools are either part of the ACC or will be soon.  Of course, Maryland will be leaving, but you get the idea.  The ACC is THE dominant force in lacrosse.

Also consider that North Carolina is ranked #11 and Duke just fell out of the top 20.

The question that begs is what the ACC is going to do in the future to replace Maryland.  The Big 10 is toying with the idea of adding Johns Hopkins for lacrosse purposes only (and research consortium monopoly games).

The Confidential has pondered the merits of adding Navy to the ACC as the 16th team.  Give them the same deal as Notre Dame… all sports and 5 games of football.  A 6th game could be Notre Dame vs. Navy, an annual matchup on the gridiron.  It would certainly be nice to give the ACC that 6th conference team for lacrosse too–the prerequisite for an automatic bid.

Of course, as noted above, the ACC lacrosse teams are all heavy hitters.  An automatic bid is not a make it or break it thing.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Lacrosse and tagged , , , , , , , ,
05 Mar 2013
1 Comment

2013 Football Season–The Calendaring Begins

ESPN is already announcing the kickoff times for the football season openers.  With ESPN’s control over the ACC and SEC, it should not be surprising to see that teams from those conferences are getting the prime time exposure that weekend.

Here are the announced dates and times.

Thursday, Aug. 29

6 p.m. — North Carolina at South Carolina (ESPN)

9:15 p.m. — Ole Miss at Vanderbilt (ESPN)

Saturday, Aug. 31

5:30 p.m — Chick-fil-A Kickoff Classic (Atlanta): Virginia Tech vs. Alabama (ESPN)

8 p.m. — Georgia at Clemson (ABC)

9 p.m. — Cowboys Classic (Arlington, Texas): TCU vs. LSU (ESPN)

That is three SEC-ACC battles out of five games.

Also, we know that Pittsburgh-Florida State will be featured during opening weekend as well.

In any event, if you are a fan of Virginia Tech, North Carolina, or Clemson, you can already start planning for that weekend….

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Schedule and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Mar 2013
11 Comments

Louisville’s pre-ACC Options: Bring Back the Metro Conference

With all the focus on whether Notre Dame will follow the Catholic 7 into the new Big East for a year or be allowed to enter the ACC a year early, this observer turns his attention to what the University of Louisville will do (or be allowed to do) in light of the latest conference realignment development.

The worst-case scenario befell the Louisville, Cincinnati and Connecticut athletic programs. While each school was vying for the ACC’s glance in 2012, no one expected the possibility that there would be no home to return to if not selected.

While Louisville must come up with and be satisfied with a short-term solution, the Bearcats and Huskies are in a much worse position with no real future on any horizon.

Originally scheduled to officially enter the prestigious ACC in 2014, Louisville and its fans are quite content with that still being the case. However, the news that the Catholic 7 will compete in fall 2013 and take the Big East name with them arouses some understandable doubts about where the Cardinals will land in the interim.

This Confidential correspondent has pondered the many options available to all parties involved and believes one solution is tenable. A void will exist when/after the Catholic 7 take the Big East name and this means that the current member schools will need to either attach to another conference or come up with one of their own.

In my humble opinion, I believe the remaining schools should resurrect an idea whose time has come once again. Even though Louisville and Rutgers will be leaving for the ACC and Big Ten in 2014, I feel a viable option could be for them to help formulate a new version of the Metro Conference (Metro Collegiate Athletic Conference) for all sports.

At various points in time over the twenty year history of the Metro Conference from 1975 to 1995, Louisville, Cincinnati, Memphis, South Florida and Tulane were member schools. The league revolved around schools in metropolitan areas and eventually merged with the Great Midwest Conference to form Conference USA.

Although it disbanded, the conference had become a household name and boasted some other well-known member schools over the years, including Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech, Saint Louis and South Carolina.

Let’s be clear: no one wants to go backwards in terms of tradition and program evolution. However, unless other conferences are open to cherry picking the residual Big East schools, there are really very few options and I suspect no one wants to go back to C-USA.

If the remaining schools were to band together and form a new conference, I believe one option on the table should be to revive the Metro league. It has name recognition, although a bit dated, and it fits the geographic locations of its would-be member schools and gives the beleaguered schools a new start with which to enter the future.

Assuming the schools agree to submit all of their athletic programs, Cincinnati, Central Florida, East Carolina, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, South Florida, Southern Methodist and Temple would make a 10-team conference for the 2013-14 season. In addition to compiling some household names, each member school would boast large metropolitan populations that could entice large media rights deals and revenues for the universities.

When Louisville and Rutgers leave, the new conference can then seek out new programs. The actions of Mike Aresco and the Big East brass in the past year have shown there is not a shortage of programs looking to realign themselves in this era of athletic musical chairs.

One thing is for sure: the time has come for some proactive decision-making by these schools. Although the Big East did its best to recruit new schools to join, the situation is what it is and the wrench the Catholic 7 have thrown into the conference’s future plans lends itself to some creative thinking.

If there are no other viable options, this option would enjoin dejected, outlying athletic programs into one conference with a goal of moving forward and finding common ground. Louisville and Rutgers can use their resources to help these programs before they leave for their new conferences. Although it will still appear like they are running out on them, they will nonetheless garner the attention and respect as two big-time programs that provided leadership to help everyone affected.

Feel free to comment and let me know what you think. At this point, only discussion and bold ideas can solve this problem. What are your ideas for the remaining schools?

**Mr. Cardinal is a new correspondent around the Atlantic Coast Confidential office. He graduated from the University of Louisville and is currently the Senior Editor of Empress World Publishing in Virginia Beach, Virginia.

Posted by MBenjAdams in Conference Realignment, Louisville Correspondent and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Mar 2013
5 Comments

Is ESPN’s Greed Causing it to Lose Profit?

Frank the Tank has a new article up on the Catholic 7’s new television deal showing that basketball has more value in expansion than previously thought.  The Confidential does not disagree.  However, with Fox offering big money for a basketball-only product–and taking that product away from ESPN–it is just the latest example of ESPN’s greed causing it to lose profit.  What this also shows is that ESPN made a killing off its undervalued contract with the Big East and is making another killing off of the ACC contract.

Think about it.  If the Catholic 7 collectively have a fair market value of $3M apiece–that is $21M right there.  TCU, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville have values of approximately $18M apiece–given that they were accepted into conferences that needed roughly that (more for TCU/Rutgers/WVU) to break even.  So that is $108M.  Figure ND is worth $6M for its non-football stuff… that is $135M ($21M + $108 + $6M).  And then you still have UConn, USF, and Cincinnati.  Even at $25M total for the three schools, that is $160M.

For that collection of schools, ESPN offered $11M per football school–or $99M/year.  With the hoops schools getting a few million apiece, that is another $20M tops.  So $120M.  $40M less than what the schools ultimately proved to be worth individually.  At the very least.

In the end, ESPN ends up with UConn, USF, Cincinnati, and fodder.  So much for that extra value.  By trying to profit as much as possible off the Big East, ESPN ended up losing most of it.

Sort of.  Some of it went to the ACC, which is also under ESPN’s control.

For now.

Regardless of the veracity of any rumors, there are vultures circling the ACC to see IF it is a carcass.

So the interesting issue is whether ESPN will lose its ACC golden goose also.  Viewed separately, all but a handful of ACC schools are desired by the Big XII, SEC, and Big 10.  Viewed conservatively, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest are “stuck” in the ACC.  An argument could be made that BC, Pitt, and Syracuse might have value to the Big XII as part of a NE wing with WVU.  Interesting thought.  But let’s assume not.  If conferences making $20M/year (minimum) can find a revenue BOOST in adding the other 10 ACC schools, that must mean that those schools are worth at least $22M apiece or $220M.  Assuming the remaining 4 are worth $11M apiece (50%), that is $264M total.  Minimum.  It is probably much higher.

Well, ESPN is paying an average of $240M per year.  Less extra profit than with the Big East, but still a nice 10% premium above the bare minimum numbers discussed above.

The question this time is whether ESPN will allow the ACC–in its current form–to walk out the door.  For every ACC school that leaves for somewhere other than the SEC, ESPN becomes less relevant and Fox becomes more relevant on the college sports scene.  At some point, ESPN has to protect its place in the college sports game.  It wants to start an SEC Network, not become the SEC Network.  Right?  But, given what has happened at many major corporations, one can never underestimate the stupidity of an organization.  10 years from now ESPN’s college programming might be down to the SEC and 10 different shows where reporters yell at each other about college sports.  Or ESPN could end up overbidding on the Big XII or Big 10 because they put themselves into a desperate situation.  Who knows?

But it does seem like ESPN could save itself a lot of trouble by locking up the ACC.  That gives the network good football and great basketball.  Programming from September to March.  At the very least, something to keep it on pace with Fox.

 

Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Louisville fans… get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:

Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:

ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Mar 2013
2 Comments

The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: March 4, 2013

It is basketball season.  It is also a Monday.  That means it is time for the Confidential’s weekly correspondent poll.

You have questions.  How far will Syracuse fall on its 3-game losing streak?  How far up will suddenly-hot North Carolina surge?  What to do with Virginia–who beat Duke and lost to Boston College?

We have answers.

Here is the weekly Top 12, with 6 precincts reporting:

  1. Duke (4 first place votes) 70 points
  2. (tie) Miami (1 first place vote) & Louisville (1 first place vote) 63 points
  3. (tie)
  4. Pittsburgh  46 points
  5. (tie) Syracuse and Notre Dame  44 points
  6. (tie)
  7. North Carolina  43 points
  8. North Carolina State  33 points
  9. Virginia  25 points
  10. Maryland  19 points
  11. Florida State  12 points
  12. Georgia Tech  5 points

Notes:

Wake Forest also received 1 point. 

Nobody had Duke below 2nd place.

Pitt ranged from 3rd place to 8th place.  Syracuse ranged from 4th place to 9th place.  North Carolina ranged from 5th place to 8th place.  Otherwise, pretty tight ranges.

Florida State is a unanimous #11 team.  Which is nice.

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…

 

Get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:

Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:

ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Correspondent Poll, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
03 Mar 2013
2 Comments

The Syracuse Free Fall Continues

It was not that long ago that Syracuse fans were all in a tither over the fact that the 2012-2013 Orange hoopsters were not getting enough national respect.  As the season approaches its end, it would appear that it was these vocal fans, rather than the poll voters who received the targeted criticism, that were incorrect.  After all, Syracuse is on a 4-6 streak in its last 10 games.  The only wins were home games against Providence, St. John, and Notre Dame (by far, the best win/game during that stretch), as well as a road game against Seton Hall.  The Orange have gone from a potential #1 seed to wondering what it would take to land a #4 seed.

As this author is a long-time Syracuse fan, it is easy to see the folly in the fans questioning the pollsters.  History has shown better Syracuse teams getting upset in the first round of the Big Dance, as well as worst teams making a run.  Really, who cares whether a team is ranked #1 or #3 in a December poll?  Who cares whether Joe Lunardi has Syracuse as a #2 seed in January?  There are only two things that matter: (a) making the Big Dance; and (b) winning during it.  Everything else is secondary.  Worrying about respect is rather pathetic and no fan of any program should worry about it too much.  And this one does not.

But, as a long-time Syracuse fan, the flaws with this team were always rather apparent.  Only one bona fide shooter on the team–James Southerland.  And he has come up cold in key moments more often than not during his career.  Kind of the opposite of Gerry McNamara, who saved his best for the big games and big moments.  More like an A-Rod.  The Arkansas game was a big showcase for Southerland; unfortunately, it was more of an anomaly on the season.  Even worse, however, is the lack of ANY offense from the big men.  That allows other teams to focus on the already-weak outside shooters.  And the smart Big East coaches, with talented teams and good schemes, has Syracuse averaging less than 60 points per game in their 6 conference losses.  Moreover, while Michael Carter-Williams may have NBA scouts drooling, that potential is nowhere near being realized.  He is still a sophomore, and not all sophomores go from backup guard to NBA player in the transition year (spoiled by Dion Waiters?).  So it is what it is.  This was never a top 5 team and it was silly to think otherwise.

Yet, before any Syracuse fans go looking for a tall building to leap off of… keep in mind that this team is not nearly as bad as a three-game losing streak or 4-6 streak indicates.  The losses this season are to 21-8 Temple (N), 23-4 Georgetown (H), 24-5 Louisville (H), 21-7 Marquette (A), 22-7 Pittsburgh (A), 19-9 Connecticut (A), and 18-11 Villanova (A).  The Big East losses are against teams with at least a .500 conference record.   Only Villanova has any chance of missing the Big Dance based on performance (UConn, of course, will miss it for other, NCAA sanction reasons).  So this is not a Syracuse team that is losing to bottom feeders.  And Syracuse is not getting blown out in losses either–the average margin of defeat in the losses is less than 7 points.  And the defense has remained quite good.  In the Big Dance, the opponents will be teams that likely have not faced the length and athleticism of the 2-3 zone.  So if the defense is good against teams/coaches that see it every year, just wait until the other opponents have to face it.   If Syracuse can lower its opponents scoring by 5 points and hit one more three-pointer, a 7 point loss becomes a victory.  So all is not lost.

Most importantly, a game against DePaul looms.  DePaul is a team that Syracuse can and should beat.  If it cannot, it might be time to panic.  But if Syracuse can win, maybe they can start building some confidence and momentum back.  And the Big East tournament provides yet another opportunity to right the ship. As UConn showed a few years ago, you can be terrible down the stretch, but get hot in March and win it all.  Free fall or not, it’s not over until it is truly over.

 

Get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:

Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:

ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference News, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
02 Mar 2013
15 Comments

Notre Dame, The Big East, and the ACC

Well, it looks like the “Catholic 7” that are leaving the Big East are going to be taking the name–The Big East–with them.  As Frank the Tank points out, the Big East name still has value to those schools.  Indeed, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Providence, and Seton Hall have been part of the Big East for a long time.  In contrast, only Connecticut has a comparatively long history.  In the end, it certainly seems like this is a fair result.

Frank notes that Fox is paying for this move.  So it is yet another defeat for ESPN in the “war” between the two sports programming giants.

The interesting part is what happens with Notre Dame.  If the “Catholic 7” leaves before the 2013-2014 basketball season, what happens to the Fighting Irish?  Do they stay as a part of the diminished Former Big East, with games against UConn, Temple, and the C-USA teams?  Do they go with the Catholic 7 for one year while waiting for the ACC to create a spot?  Will the ACC create a spot for the Fighting Irish?  There are a lot of moving parts here.  In any event, the unlikely event of Notre Dame being in the ACC for the 2013-2014 basketball season is no longer quite as unlikely.

Oh, and let’s not feel TOO sorry for Connecticut, Cincinnati, and South Florida yet.  With all the defections, as well as the desperation for the Catholic 7 to leave and take the naming rights to the Big East, they might be left holding all the NCAA tournament credits and the exit fee fund left behind.  There is talk that this funding will be in the neighborhood of $68 million.  That is better than a sharp stick in the eye, anyway.

In any event, the main thing to keep an eye on is what happens to Notre Dame.  That will have to get resolved pretty quickly.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference News, Conference Realignment and tagged , , ,

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