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16 Oct 2016

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 8

And then there were 13.  That is all… only thirteen entrants without a single strike.  And only 21 entrants overall.  Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, and Virginia all tripped up folks.

As we move on to Week 8, here is the chart of who is left:

No Entry Name Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6 Wk7
1 ACAFFREY (COMMANDER CAFFREY) SYR MIA UNC BC PITT DUKE GT
2 BCEAGLE74 WF GT NCST BC PITT CLEM LOU
3 BENSTANDREW SYR ND MIA LOU BC VTC CLEM
4 CDWHIT09 DUKE BC NCST VTC PITT CLEM GT
5 HHUNTLEY17 DUKE GT UNC BC ND CLEM LOU
6 HOOPULLEDMYWEAVE SYR GT WF BC ND DUKE LOU
7 INTOTHEMEATGRINDER VTC MIA WF BC PITT DUKE GT
8 JFLIPPEN SYR GT NCST VTC BC DUKE FSU
9 MADCADDIES6 WF GT NCST BC PITT CLEM FSU
10 MIKEMAB2000 DUKE BC WF UNC MIA CLEM GT
11 RIGHT PROFILE SYR GT WF BC PITT DUKE FSU
12 RIVES33 SYR GT WF VTC PITT DUKE FSU
13 UOFL223 WF GT NCST BC ND CLEM LOU
14 4 TIME CHAMPS-FINGERS CROSSED NCST GT WF BC PITT UNC FSU
15 DRANDYT WF DUKE NCST SYR BC PITT LOU
16 LD17 SYR BC WF VTC FSU PITT GT
17 MSU_DAWGS02 DUKE LOU WF BC PITT SYR GT
18 MYKCITTY WF GT NCST BC PITT DUKE ND
19 PAGING_DR_HOO SYR GT WF BC PITT DUKE VTC
20 TANNYBOGUS – 3 NCST UNC CLEM BC DUKE PITT GT
21 TWOHOOS SYR GT WF FSU BC PITT VIRG

And we are just a few weeks away from when we have to start making TWO picks per week.

Anyway, good luck in Week 8 everyone!

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Fantasy Football, Results and tagged , , ,
13 Oct 2016

ACC Football Stockwatch: Buy, Sell, and Hold

After six weeks, the ACC is down to one undefeated team (Clemson).  A bunch of teams are battling to be in the top half of the conference.  If these teams were stock, who are you buying, selling, and holding?  Here are a few teams for each category.

BUY

Notre Dame.  What?  At 1-3, things were worrisome.  Splitting NC State and Syracuse means 2-4.  But will Notre Dame finish 4-8?  Probably not.  With 5 home games left, there is plenty of time to right the ship.  A wounded and vulnerable Stanford team comes to town next, with Army and Navy looming.  A bowl might be tough, however, as the remaining schedule is Miami (H), Virginia Tech (H), and disappointing Southern Cal (A).  Still, things should get better, right?  A buy low opportunity.

Louisville.  At 4-1, Louisville has scored 290 points.  Can they get better?  Well, maybe not better… but they have gotten past the Florida State/Clemson part of the schedule.  The only highly ranked team left on the schedule is Houston, who just lost to Navy.  The remaining six teams certainly could pull an upset, as is the nature of the game.  But they would be major upsets: Duke, NC State, Boston College, Virginia, Wake Forest, Kentucky.  The college football scoring record is 723 points (Florida State in 14 games).  Louisville is on pace to score 754 if they play 13 games (which seems quite likely).

SELL

Syracuse.  Look, Dino Babers may have Syracuse on the right track.  But, like the rebuilds at other schools, the dividends will not be paying off this year.  Absent an upset, the only real winnable game left on the schedule is Boston College–a road game where B.C. will have 15 days to prepare.  2-10 or 3-9 is far from out of the question.

Boston College.  At 3-3, B.C. would need a 3-3 finish to go bowling. They host Syracuse and UConn, which is nice.  But where does that sixth win come from?  A trip to NC State–possible.  Louisville?  Um, no.  A trip to Florida State?  Unlikely.  A trip to Wake Forest?  See above regarding the Demon Deacons.  And if Syracuse is going to win ANY game this year, it is the B.C. game.  Meanwhile, UConn will be VERY interested and motivated to beat B.C.  A bowl is looking unlikely, even with one of the softest OOC schedules possible.

HOLD

Wake Forest.  At 5-1, Wake Forest is in the drivers seat for a bowl game, and possibly a very good bowl game.  The Demon Deacons still have games with Virginia, Army, and Boston College.  Even assuming losses to Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson, 8-4 is on the table.  Getting to six wins would have been impressive pre-season… but 8?  Wow.  Still, with the much tougher back end of the schedule, Wake Forest is not going to struggle to put up more than 3 more wins down the stretch.  Again, no knock on Wake, but they have peaked at 5-1.

Miami.  Like Louisville, Miami is 4-1.  Like Louisville, Miami has dominated its opponents–except for the one narrow loss to an elite team.  In Louisville’s case, Clemson; in Miami’s case, Florida State.  It is less clear, however, that Miami is going to run the table unscathed again.  Miami still has trips to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and North Carolina State.  Meanwhile, North Carolina, Pitt, and Duke will visit Miami.  10-2 is possible and 9-3 is certainly doable.  Either way, Miami seems to be on the right track.

What do you think?  Who would you put in for each category?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Stockwatch and tagged , , ,
11 Oct 2016
1 Comment

ACC Football Rankings: Week 7

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for week 7:

  1. Clemson 6-0.  Boston College used to have a great defense.  After allowing over 100 points in its last two conference games, maybe not.  Either way, Clemson rolled over B.C. on the road to get to 6-0.  They are now halfway to the Conference Championship game.  They need to take care of NC State and not look forward to Florida State though.
  2. Louisville 4-1. The Cardinals got a week off to rest and prepare for Duke.
  3. Virginia Tech 4-1. With a 34-3 drubbing of the Tar Heels in the inclement weather, the Hokies may officially be “back.”  North Carolina was flying high entering the game, but left with its Coastal tag between its legs.  Virginia Tech travels to Syracuse to face the fading Orange.
  4. Florida State 4-2.  Sure, it was not beautiful, but it was the 7th straight win for the Seminoles over Miami.  The trajectory of these two rivals is getting closer, but Jimbo Fisher got the win to keep FSU in the running for a major bowl.  Wake Forest is next and will not be easy.
  5. Miami 4-1.  Miami has narrowed the gap considerably–but still fell short against FSU 20-19.  So close.  But there is no time to rest as a hungry North Carolina team will be coming to town next.  To stay in the Coastal hunt, Miami needs to take care of business.
  6. NC State 4-1.  NC State has a win over Wake Forest, who at 5-1 is taking major steps forward.  NC State also has a win over Notre Dame, who has talent all over the field and handled Syracuse easily.   Oh, but things get very challenging with a trip to Clemson this week.
  7. Wake Forest 5-1.  Wake Forest just keeps winning.  After losing to NC State, they made several major mistakes and still put Syracuse away.  At the halfway point, the Demon Deacons need just one more win to go bowling… and Army, Virginia, and Boston College are all on the schedule.  Next up, a trip to Florida State, who may have just found some confidence with a win over Miami.
  8. North Carolina 4-2. The Tar Heels could be higher, with losses only to Georgia and Va Tech.  This shows just how deep the ACC is now.  Unfortunately, UNC must now travel to Miami, who will be looking to rebound from its disappointing loss to rival FSU.
  9. Pittsburgh 4-2.  The Panthers were able to beat Georgia Tech by a field goal, moving to 4-2.  A trip to Virginia is next.  While Syracuse and Duke will come to town to end the season, the next three weeks involve games against Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech.  A Virginia win is essential.
  10. Georgia Tech 3-3.  After starting 3-0, the Yellow Jackets are now 3-3, with losses to Clemson, Miami, and Pitt.  They need to defeat Georgia Southern, who (fortunately for Ga Tech) is not quite the same under its new coach.  A good opportunity to right the ship.
  11. Duke 3-3.  A win is a win, and Duke beat Army 13-6 to get to .500.  All six remaining games are against teams above Duke in these standings, so there is a real risk of Duke missing out on a bowl this year.  Next up: Louisville, who will be looking to take out two weeks of post-Clemson frustration on the Blue Devils.  Yikes!
  12. Boston College 3-3.  Boston College used to be about defense, but they have been outscored 122-24 in conference play this year.  They have 15 days to prepare for Syracuse.
  13. Notre Dame 2-4.  The loss to NC State shows just how far the Fighting Irish have fallen.  Someone joked that it is a good thing that Notre Dame is not in the ACC because it would drag down the conference S.O.S.  And that joke was true.  To get to bowl eligibility, Notre Dame will have to win four of these games: Stanford, Miami, Army, Navy, Virginia Tech, and @ USC.  Yes, that is five straight home games in a schedule with only three true road games.  And no Clemson, FSU, or Louisville on the schedule.  Stanford and USC are both down, while Texas and Michigan State are fading.  To miss a bowl in a season with THIS schedule would be dreadful.
  14. Virginia 2-3.  Virginia got the week off and gets to move up to #14.  After all, they have a better record and a win over a P5 program (which Syracuse does not).  Next up is 4-2 Pitt.
  15. Syracuse 2-4.  The Orange are fading fast.  With six games left, bowl eligibility is mathematically alive.  But the loss to Wake Forest may have put that reality out of its misery.  With hot Va Tech coming to town, it could get that much more unlikely that much faster.  Perhaps worse Syracuse teams have pulled upsets, but it is what it is.  With wins over Colgate and UConn, Syracuse deserves the #15 spot until the results prove otherwise.

So, what do you think?  How would you change these rankings?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , ,
10 Oct 2016

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 7

After five weeks, we are down to only 16 entrants without a single strike.  This week, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Syracuse (?) tripped up some teams.  There are now only 25 overall entrants left.

As we move on to Week 7, here is the chart of who is left:

No Entry Name Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6
1 ACAFFREY (COMMANDER CAFFREY) SYR MIA UNC BC PITT DUKE
2 BCEAGLE74 WF GT NCST BC PITT CLEM
3 BENSTANDREW SYR ND MIA LOU BC VTC
4 CDWHIT09 DUKE BC NCST VTC PITT CLEM
5 HHUNTLEY17 DUKE GT UNC BC ND CLEM
6 HOOPULLEDMYWEAVE SYR GT WF BC ND DUKE
7 INTOTHEMEATGRINDER VTC MIA WF BC PITT DUKE
8 JFLIPPEN SYR GT NCST VTC BC DUKE
9 MADCADDIES6 WF GT NCST BC PITT CLEM
10 MIKEMAB2000 DUKE BC WF UNC MIA CLEM
11 MYKCITTY WF GT NCST BC PITT DUKE
12 PAGING_DR_HOO SYR GT WF BC PITT DUKE
13 RIGHT PROFILE SYR GT WF BC PITT DUKE
14 RIVES33 SYR GT WF VTC PITT DUKE
15 TWOHOOS SYR GT WF FSU BC PITT
16 UOFL223 WF GT NCST BC ND CLEM
17 4 TIME CHAMPS-FINGERS CROSSED NCST GT WF BC PITT UNC
18 CLEMSON82 WF GT NCST ND BC CLEM
19 DRANDYT WF DUKE NCST SYR BC PITT
20 HODOR WF BC NCST ND PITT CLEM
21 LD17 SYR BC WF VTC FSU PITT
22 LENVILLECARDS SYR BC WF ND PITT CLEM
23 MSU_DAWGS02 DUKE LOU WF BC PITT SYR
24 SUATO92 SYR GT BC LOU PITT CLEM
25 TANNYBOGUS – 3 NCST UNC CLEM BC DUKE PITT

Good luck in Week 7 everyone!

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Fantasy Football, Results and tagged , , ,
07 Oct 2016
2 Comments

8 Games for ACC Football, Rivalries, and More

With the ACC apparently deciding to stick with 8 conference games for football, at least part of the reason is that several ACC schools have SEC rivals that must be played each year.  Between those games, and the Notre Dame 5-game thing, that could eliminate scheduling flexibility substantially for some schools.

But what of these rivalries?  Could every ACC school have an out-of-conference rivalry with another p5 school?  Let’s consider the possibilities to allow every P5 team (including Notre Dame and BYU) to have an OOC rivalry game each year:

  • Florida State vs. Florida (same)
  • Clemson vs. South Carolina (same)
  • Louisville vs. Kentucky (same)
  • Georgia Tech vs. Georgia (same)
  • Notre Dame vs USC (same)

That provides for five ACC schools.  So, what of the other schools?   Just about everyone would want Maryland, and prefer Penn State and West Virginia based on proximity.  But that cannot be.  So how could we divide this up?  Also, have to assume that if every P5 school was to grab a rival, some of the old rivalries would resume, such as Oklahoma-Nebraska, Texas-Texas A&M, Missouri-Kansas, etc.  So we have to leave those out.

Pittsburgh would be the toughest because it has two options–West Virginia and Penn State.  We’ll go West Virginia.

Boston College would probably like to see UConn here, but UConn is not there.  Penn State probably makes some geographical sense.  Maryland is nearby and provides a fairly equivalent talent level.  But BC does not get first choice here.  Let’s go with Northwestern–another private school in the north.

Syracuse has to be Rutgers, as the two schools compete for recruits in New Jersey.  A battle for NYC if you will.  If the program was in better shape, then perhaps Penn State.

Wake Forest does not have a lot of P5 options, but they have had a decent rivalry with Vanderbilt over the years.  A couple of private schools in the South.  Sounds good.

Duke is another private school–which makes them a good match-up for Northwestern.  Both schools are sometimes considered to be sorta Ivy League.  But how about BYU?  Just as private and a fair equivalent on the football field lately.

Virginia Tech might have liked West Virginia, but with nearby Penn State a very “on par” team in terms of talent, let’s go with Penn State.

This leaves North Carolina, NC State, Miami, and Virginia.

Virginia is struggling on the football field, but doing quite well in hoops.  Maryland is just too close to not use.

North Carolina is too good in football to be matched up with Indiana.  And Indiana hoops is not quite what it once was.  But we are talking football anyway.  Instead, let’s look South, where Tennessee is doing similar things on the football field lately.

North Carolina State is a middle of the pack team that certainly has some potential,  but never quite reaches it.  Ole Miss might be too good on the football field right now, but it is a comparative school in many respects.

Miami and Auburn make some sense.  Pretty close geographically…as close as anyone can be to Miami.  Both have great upside every year, both often fail to live up to it.

What does that leave?  Well, Ohio State vs. Alabama, Michigan vs. LSU, Michigan State vs UCLA, Wisconsin vs Oregon, and so on.

So here is the recap:

  • Pitt vs West Virginia
  • BC vs Northwestern
  • Syracuse vs Rutgers
  • Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt
  • Duke vs BYU
  • Va Tech vs Penn State
  • Virginia vs Maryland
  • North Carolina vs Tennessee
  • NC State vs Ole Miss
  • Miami vs Auburn

What do you think?  If each ACC school without an SEC rival could pick a rival, who would it be?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , ,
05 Oct 2016
1 Comment

ACC Football Rankings: Week 6

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for week 6:

  1. Clemson 5-0.  No knock on Louisville, but Clemson gets the spot at 5-0, with a win over Louisville.  Maybe Louisville wins this game if played at home.  Maybe Louisville wins this game if played on a neutral site.  Maybe Louisville wins this game 6 or 7 times out of 10.  Maybe Louisville wins this game with better refs.  But Clemson won THE GAME that was actually played.  The best way to keep refs out of the game is to make them irrelevant by winning by a large margin.
  2. Louisville 4-1. Despite the loss, the Cardinals have a win over Florida State already on the resume.  So that gets them the #2 spot.  Even if Miami beats Florida State, Louisville will likely keep the spot.  What Louisville must do is remain focused and realize that winning out may yet get them a playoff spot–especially if Clemson stumbles against Florida State down the road.
  3. Miami 4-0.  Miami did what they were supposed to do in beating Georgia Tech.  But this is exactly the type of game that Al Golden would lose.  So now Miami has cleared its first obstacle.  The next obstacle is Florida State–who has dominated the Hurricanes of late.  Mark Richt can put a huge stamp on the resurrection of Miami by winning this game.
  4. North Carolina 4-1. The Tar Heels have four straight wins, as 2016 is setting up exactly like 2015–a disappointing loss to an SEC team that fades into obscurity and then a lot of wins.  Only this year, North Carolina has now gotten past Florida State too.  While an argument can be made for Virginia Tech at #4, we’ll make the Hokies earn it on the field against the Tar Heels this week.
  5. Virginia Tech 3-1. This was a tough one.  Both Virginia Tech and North Carolina have one loss.  They play this week.  North Carolina lost to Georgia, while the Hokies lost to Tennessee.  Again, the Hokies can easily take the #4 spot with a win over UNC.  Earn it on the field.
  6. Florida State 3-2.  Sure, the Seminoles have two losses, whereas a few ACC teams still only have one loss.  But the Seminoles beat Ole Miss and have lost to two teams that have only one loss UNC and Louisville.  A loss to Miami may yet in the cards though, as this is becoming a real rebuilding year for Florida State.
  7. NC State 3-1.  NC State has a loss to East Carolina, which pales into comparison with how Virginia Tech dominated ECU.  The win over previously undefeated Wake Forest propels them into the #7 spot though.  With Notre Dame coming to town, this is a huge statement game.  More importantly, with consecutive trips to Clemson and Louisville following this game–a loss can mean the realistic possibility of being 3-4 heading into the final 5 games.
  8. Wake Forest 4-1.  Well, Wake Forest had a chance to get itself into bowl eligibility with a 6-0 start, but it was doubled-up by North Carolina State, 33-16.  This puts Wake Forest behind NC State in the standings also.  Now it must face a Syracuse offense that can put points on the board in ways that Wake Forest perhaps cannot.
  9. Georgia Tech 3-2.  The Yellow Jackets are 3-1, with losses to Clemson and Miami–two teams that are a combined 9-0.  No shame in that.  Now Georgia Tech must travel to Pittsburgh, to face another 3-2 team that finds itself a few teams back in the Coastal standings.
  10. Pittsburgh 3-2.  The Panthers recovered from consecutive losses by defeating Marshall.  As expected.  The schedule gets tough again, with Georgia Tech coming to town, followed by a trip to Virginia.  After that, there are games against Virginia Tech, Miami, and Clemson–a combined 12-1.  So the importance of these next two games cannot be understated.  A bowl remains likely, but can Pitt can beyond merely 6 or 7 wins?
  11. Boston College 3-2.  Boston College has now beaten UMass, Wagner, and Buffalo en route to a 3-2 record.  Things get very real with Clemson up next.  An argument could be made for Duke here (who beat Notre Dame), but they just lost to Virginia.  Notre Dame just beat Syracuse, but they lost to Duke.  Meanwhile, Syracuse and Virginia have no business at #11 yet.  So B.C. gets this position–however temporary–by default.
  12. Duke 2-3.  It is hard to put Duke ahead of the pack, having lost to Virginia, who is at the bottom.  But Duke did beat Notre Dame, so Notre Dame cannot be ahead of Duke with the same record.  Next up is Army, which should be an easier game for Duke.
  13. Notre Dame 2-3.  The Fighting Irish did what they needed to do–beat Syracuse.  With Stanford and Miami looming, they really need to defeat North Carolina State–which will be tough on the road.  For now, Notre Dame gets the #13 spot.
  14. Syracuse 2-3.  The ‘Cuse could be #15.  But Syracuse has had to play Louisville (4-1), USF (4-1), and a desperate, hungry Notre Dame team.  They get to keep the #14 spot for another week.  Dino Babers can get them back to .500 with a win @ Wake Forest.
  15. Virginia 2-3.  Virginia got another win–this time over Duke.  It just shows the depth of the coaching and talent in the ACC that the #15 team is this good.  If Virginia had only just taken care of Richmond–it remains an anchor on these standings.

So, what do you think?  How would you change these rankings?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , ,
04 Oct 2016
1 Comment

Seminoles Scramble For The Panic Button

This is a guest article by Ryan Nelson.  We thank him for his contribution!

In the preseason, the Florida State Seminoles were ranked 4th in the country, received some first-place votes and were one of the favorites to make the ACC championship and perhaps the College Football Playoff.

Then Derwin James got hurt, the defense got shredded week after week and Florida State is a road underdog in its sixth game of the season, perhaps on the precipice of dropping out of the Top 25 rankings entirely.

James is doing all he can from the sidelines to help his teammates, but there remains no concrete timeframe for his return from a knee injury. With him out, the Seminoles have been atrocious. According to ESPN, against FBS opponents, the Seminole defense is on the field less than any other Power 5 school yet is allowing a national-worst 42.3 points per game. It is also dead last among Power 5 teams allowing 6.98 yards per play. Outside of injury, “issues of misalignments, missed assignments and a lack of communication” are pointed to as culprits for the unit’s fall. It certainly isn’t a lack of talent. Recruiting and building a talent base have never been issues for Florida State or Jimbo Fisher, and much was expected of this group prior to the season. Getting elite execution out of his players apparently is instead the issue.

Giving up 63 points to Lamar Jackson and Louisville was perhaps the worst statistical performance that could have transpired for this squad, but it wasn’t rock bottom. Losing on the road to a Top-10 team is nothing to be disappointed with. The game was noncompetitive pretty quickly. At that point, it is only natural to pack it in and bring down your level of effort. That’s how 63 points happens.

What is harder to explain is how FSU could give up 37 points at home to North Carolina in a back-and-forth game that came down to the final score. UNC scored nine points in the final 2:31 of the ballgame. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky encountered little to no resistance all game on his way to completing 81.5 percent of his passes for 405 yards and three touchdowns. If the Louisville game was the eye-opener, the Carolina game was the panic button.

When there is talent on the field, a lack of effort is still a death sentence; it doesn’t matter how naturally talented players are if they are not using those abilities. This group is filled with four- and five-star recruits but seems to lack discipline, attitude and other intangibles that lead to cohesive football. Compounded with the mental mistakes this defense is making pre-snap and in recognition, it is hard to be successful no matter how many stars stood by your name coming out of high school.

Some former players blame the coaching staff for the issues, saying such mistakes come from a lack of leadership, direction and culture. Others say it is on the players to correct such shortcomings. Either way, the performance has been putrid and isn’t showing any signs of being turned around.

According to Coach Fisher, there is no issue with the scheme being played. It is the same defensive scheme Florida State has been using to much success the past three years. Instead, it is about getting the new players to execute the plays as they were intended. Fisher even went as far as blaming the coaches for not teaching said scheme well enough. None of it bodes well for defensive coordinator Charles Kelly.

But removing Kelly is no guarantee of a turnaround, especially with 10th-ranked Miami and Brad Kaaya on the horizon this weekend. Then comes a game against Clemson before the month is out. If something doesn’t change on the defensive side, Florida State will find itself outside the Top 25, below .500 and a far cry from a berth in the playoff.

Posted by acaffrey in FSU Correspondent, Guest Article, Opinion and tagged ,
02 Oct 2016

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 6

After five weeks, we are down to only 18 entrants without a single strike.  This week, the FSU and Duke games tripped up a few folks.  In fact, we are down t 26 overall entrants.  This means that eight have one strike.

As we move on to Week 6, here is the chart of who is left:

No Entry Name Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5
1 4 TIME CHAMPS-FINGERS CROSSED NCST GT WF BC PITT
2 ACAFFREY (COMMANDER CAFFREY) SYR MIA UNC BC PITT
3 BCEAGLE74 WF GT NCST BC PITT
4 BENSTANDREW SYR ND MIA LOU BC
5 CDWHIT09 DUKE BC NCST VTC PITT
6 HHUNTLEY17 DUKE GT UNC BC ND
7 HOOPULLEDMYWEAVE SYR GT WF BC ND
8 INTOTHEMEATGRINDER VTC MIA WF BC PITT
9 JFLIPPEN SYR GT NCST VTC BC
10 MADCADDIES6 WF GT NCST BC PITT
11 MIKEMAB2000 DUKE BC WF UNC MIA
12 MSU_DAWGS02 DUKE LOU WF BC PITT
13 MYKCITTY WF GT NCST BC PITT
14 PAGING_DR_HOO SYR GT WF BC PITT
15 RIGHT PROFILE SYR GT WF BC PITT
16 RIVES33 SYR GT WF VTC PITT
17 TWOHOOS SYR GT WF FSU BC
18 UOFL223 WF GT NCST BC ND
19 CLEMSON82 WF GT NCST ND BC
20 DRANDYT WF DUKE NCST SYR BC
21 HODOR WF BC NCST ND PITT
22 LD17 SYR BC WF VTC FSU
23 LENVILLECARDS SYR BC WF ND PITT
24 MR. TAR HEEL SYR GT WF BC DUKE
25 SUATO92 SYR GT BC LOU PITT
26 TANNYBOGUS – 3 NCST UNC CLEM BC DUKE

And here is the chart as to which teams have been used or not used:

Team Survivors Who Haven’t Picked This Team
1. Boston College (3-2) 1
2. Wake Forest (4-1) 7
3. Georgia Tech (3-2) 11
4. Pittsburgh (3-2) 12
5. Syracuse (2-3) 13
6. No Carolina St. (3-1) 15
7. Duke (2-3) 19
8. Notre Dame (2-3) 19
9. Virginia Tech (3-1) 21
10. Miami Fla (4-0) 22
11. North Carolina (4-1) 22
12. Louisville (4-1) 23
13. Florida St. (3-2) 24
14. Clemson (5-0) 25
15. Virginia (2-3) 26

Looks like a lot of folks are saving Louisville, Florida State, Clemson, and Virginia–the latter for different reasons.  However, kudos to the Wahoos for beating Duke!

Good luck in Week 6 everyone!

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Fantasy Football, Results and tagged , , ,
28 Sep 2016

ACC Football Stockwatch: Buy, Sell, and Hold

After four weeks, coaches are already getting fired.  Teams are separating themselves.  If there was stock, who are you buying, selling, and holding?  Here are a few teams for each category.

BUY

Virginia Tech.  After a loss to Tennessee, the Hokies have dominated Boston College and East Carolina… two teams that rarely are dominated.  The smartest thing that a new coaching staff can do is retain that which is not broken.  In this case, the defense was not changed.  And now the offense and defense are both clicking.  With no Clemson, Florida State, or Louisville on the schedule, Virginia Tech could win the Coastal.

Boston College.  Huh?  Well, as 2-2, the Eagles have games against Buffalo, UConn, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and North Carolina state remaining.  Do you see four potential wins there?  Maybe.  If so, it will be a bowl.  That is an uptick over the present situation.

Wake Forest.  Like Boston College, Wake Forest does not have a horribly daunting remaining schedule.  Yeah, let’s give losses to Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville.  The Demon Deacons still have five more winnable games to get to bowl eligibility: @NC State, Syracuse, Army, Virginia, and Boston College.  Note that four of these games are at home too.  Wow.

SELL

Really, not much to sell here.  Virginia and Syracuse just had wins.  Florida State had some defensive woes, but is 3-1.  NC State and Georgia Tech have more wins than losses.  And so on.

But Notre Dame’s defensive woes are such that they fired their defensive coordinator.  So it might make some sense to sell Notre Dame until you see what a new coordinator can do.  At the same time, with three losses already, there is a path forward that has the Fighting Irish sitting home during bowl season.  They avoided Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville this year, but Miami and Virginia Tech look better than last year.  Meanwhile, Stanford is very good.  Lose those three games and there are six losses.  If so, Notre Dame has to hold serve against Syracuse, NC State, Army, Navy, and struggling U.S.C., just to get the six wins for bowl eligibility.  And if Syracuse upsets them this week?  Trouble.  Anything can happen, but it would make sense to “sell” for now.

Pittsburgh.  After a 2-0 start against in-state Penn State and Villanova, the Panthers dropped winnable games at Oklahoma State and North Carolina.  Marshall, Syracuse, and Virginia are “should wins.”  The Coastal is a mess, as usual. If Miami and Virginia Tech are for real, and Duke’s got the ship righted, Pitt may struggle to get to and beyond 6 wins.  Probably makes sense to “sell” and see where they are after the Georgia Tech game on October 8th.

HOLD

Clemson and Louisville.  Only one of these teams will come out of this week’s matchup 5-0 and in the drivers’ seat for the playoffs.  One of these teams will come out 4-1 and have obstacles.  Both teams still have to get by Florida State, who can play the spoiler and try to sneak back in.  All three still have games against SEC foes.  But you need to wait out this week to know who controls their own destiny.

Miami.  Four weeks in, Miami is 3-0.  The three easiest games on the schedule are gone, now it is Coastal competition, Florida State, Notre Dame, and North Carolina State.  Mark Richt should be familiar with Georgia Tech’s offense from his Georgia coaching days, and with two weeks to prepare, it would be inexcusable for the Hurricanes to not have a great game plan.  But if Georgia Tech can win this game, the schedule for Miami looks a lot tougher.

What do you think?  Who would you put in for each category?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Stockwatch and tagged , , ,
26 Sep 2016

ACC Football Rankings: Week 5

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for week 5:

  1. Louisville 4-0. The Cardinals are averaging 63 points per game.  That makes the 58 points against Marshall a disappointment.  And it is odd that Marshall scored more points against Louisville than Florida State.  But all eyes–including GameDay–turn to Death Valley where Louisville faces its toughest test of the regular season (well, maybe it will be @ Houston).  If Louisville can get by this one, look out.  But Clemson has the offense and defense to keep up with Louisville, and home field should be an advantage.
  2. Clemson 4-0.  While Louisville has looked impressive racking up its 4 wins, Clemson has not.  The nice win over Georgia Tech is another step in the right direction.  Louisville coming to town will be Clemson’s biggest challenge to date as Lamar Jackson is every bit the QB that Watson is.  The Heisman hype has shifted from Watson to Jackson too.  This should be a great game.
  3. Florida State 3-1.  Florida State’s offense put up 55 points on a decent South Florida defense.  But the defense is allowing a lot of points.  With North Carolina coming to town, things need to get righted pretty quick.  The playoff picture may be bleak for the Seminoles, but a prime bowl is still in the mix.
  4. Miami 3-0.  Miami got a week off… giving them two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech’s unique offense.  That is a nice advantage.  This is the type of game Miami has lost during the past decade.  They are only cautiously slotted at #4.
  5. Wake Forest 4-0.  The Confidential told you that the Demon Deacons had the potential for 9 wins.  And they are already almost halfway there.  NC State is a big rivalry game, and it is on the road (again).  If they can win this one, a bowl is almost a certainty.
  6. Virginia Tech 3-1. This was a tough one.  Both Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech lost to highly ranked teams, with Clemson being a better team than Tennessee.  Both teams beat Boston College, Virginia Tech very handily.  But the Hokies are really starting to put up some offensive and defensive numbers… cannot ignore that.  East Carolina has been a thorn, but was quickly weeded and dispatched.  
  7. Georgia Tech 3-1.  The Yellow Jackets are 3-1, with only a loss to Clemson… no shame in that.  If the Yellow Jackets can beat Miami, they will rise substantially.
  8. North Carolina 3-1. The Tar Heels have three straight wins, as 2016 is setting up just like 2015–a disappointing loss to an SEC team that fades into obscurity and then a lot of wins.  But this year, Florida State is on the schedule.  And a trip to the Seminoles will show whether North Carolina is going to have a season similar to last year.
  9. Pittsburgh 2-2.  The Panthers have now lost two straight… albeit to decent teams.  Penn State is not the Penn State of old though, and Pitt seems to be taking a step back all of the sudden.  They get Marshall this week, who just got a taste of Louisville.  They will be ready.
  10. NC State 2-1.  NC State gets to host Wake Forest this week.  In August, this game looked like a tune-up game.  Now, Wake is 4-0 and has some momentum.  Things get pretty scary if NC State loses this game.  With Notre Dame replacing one of their four annual OOC cupcakes, and the other Atlantic foes looking solid, there are few spots for wins after this game.
  11. Duke 2-2.  Duke rebounded from the loss to Northwestern by beating Notre Dame at Notre Dame.  In fact, Notre Dame went ahead and fired its defensive coordinator thereafter.  Virginia comes to town, fresh off a win off its first win.  And with Army looming, Duke is still in the hunt for bowl eligibility.
  12. Notre Dame 1-3.  Notre Dame is in trouble.  Brian Kelly fired the defensive coordinator.  Texas is better, but not Texas.  Michigan State is good, but looked terrible against Wisconsin.  And Duke is not a juggernaut this year.  If Notre Dame cannot beat a Syracuse team that is giving up points aplenty, it is time to panic.
  13. Syracuse 2-2.  The Orange got past UConn, which is nice.  The offense is struggling to put up points, but generally moving the ball.  The defense is porous, but did better against UConn’s deliberate offense.  Few Orange fans expected a win against Notre Dame, and fewer still expected a win after the losses to Louisville and South Florida.  Somehow, however, Notre Dame’s struggles are giving the ‘Cuse optimism.  We’ll see.
  14. Boston College 2-2.  Boston College beat up on Wagner, and its embarrassingly easy OOC schedule continues with Buffalo next.  Not the Bills, but the Bulls–losers to Albany this year.  If B.C. is to have any chance of a bowl, it has to win this week.
  15. Virginia 1-3.  Virginia got a win!  A win is a win, and Central Michigan is no pushover.  Next up?  A trip to Duke.

So, what do you think?  Are we being too harsh on Georgia Tech for a loss to Clemson?  Is Florida State too high given their defensive woes?  Any other errors in your opinion?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , ,

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