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27 Feb 2013
2 Comments

The 2013 Greg Schiano Pansiness In Scheduling Award for the ACC

Nobody rode the coattails of weak scheduling any farther than Greg Schiano.  As noted here previously, Rutgers rise to mediocrity was accompanied by a rather obvious shift to absolutely putrid OOC scheduling.  Well, it worked…as Rutgers is now in the Big 10 and Schiano is now in the NFL.  In the meantime, let’s take a look at the OOC schedules for the ACC teams.  In the spirit of the Oscars, who gets the Greg Schiano award for the ACC in 2013?

First, let’s look at the OOC schedules (courtesy of http://www.theacc.com):

  • Boston College: Villanova, @ USC, Army, @ New Mexico State
  • Clemson: Georgia, South Carolina State, The Citadel, @ South Carolina
  • Duke: North Carolina Central, @ Memphis, Troy, Navy
  • Florida State: Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, @ Florida
  • Georgia Tech: Elon, @ BYU, Alabama A&M, Georgia
  • Maryland: Florida Int’l, Old Dominion, @ UConn, West Virginia
  • Miami: Florida Atlantic, Florida, Savannah State, @ USF
  • North Carolina: @ South Carolina, Middle Tennessee, East Carolina, Old Dominion
  • NC State: Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Central Michigan, East Carolina
  • Pittsburgh: New Mexico, Old Dominion, @ Navy, Notre Dame
  • Syracuse: Penn State (Neutral site), @ Northwestern, Wagner, Tulane
  • Virginia: BYU, Oregon, VMI, Ball State
  • Va Tech: Alabama (Neutral site), Western Carolina, @ East Carolina, Marshall
  • Wake Forest: Presbyterian, Louisiana-Monroe, @Army, @ Vanderbilt

Old Dominion might have the toughest schedule East of the Mississippi, with games against Maryland, Pitt, and North Carolina.  Heck, let’s add them to the conference!  Just kidding.

Notably, only a handful of teams play more than one AQ-conference team.  Clemson plays Georgia and South Carolina.  Maryland plays West Virginia and UConn (kinda, sorta).  Miami plays Florida and USF (kinda sorta).  Syracuse plays Penn State and Northwestern.  So those 4 teams can be eliminated from the Schiano Award.

Virginia Tech plays Alabama, Virginia plays Oregon, Florida State plays Florida, Pitt plays Notre Dame, and Boston College plays Southern Cal.  That is five teams that are taking on elite teams, kings of the sport.  We can eliminate them too.  That leaves but 5.

Georgia and Southern Carolina may or may not be Kings, but they are darn goods teams.  We can eliminate North Carolina and Georgia Tech.  Down to 3 teams.

Wake Forest plays @ Vanderbilt and @ Army.  Two road OOC games against decent programs.  Heck, Greg Schiano would not have scheduled a road game against Vandy in the same year as a road trip to Army, so we’ll eliminate the Demon Deacons.  Down to 2.

The two finalists are Duke and North Carolina State.  Duke’s toughest game is either Navy or @ Memphis.  Yep… one of the worst teams in all of FBS may be Duke’s “toughest” game.  For North Carolina State, home games against Louisiana Tech and East Carolina are the choices.  Wait a minute… North Carolina State is not even going on the road at all!  Four home games and zero games against any BCS-level programs?  Methinks we have a winner here.

The 2013 Greg Schiano Pansiness in Schedule Award for the ACC goes to… the North Carolina State Wolfpack!

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion, Sarcasm, Satire and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Feb 2013
14 Comments

Conference Realignment–What if the ACC, Big 10, SEC, and Big XII Worked Together?

So far, conference realignment has been about taking… usually in the form of a happy conference (stealing a school), a happy school (happy to be stolen) and–cue the sad trombone–a sad conference (losing a school).  So far, the unhappy conference has usually been the Big East, but the Big XII has lost Missouri, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Nebraska, while the ACC has lost Maryland.  Only the Pac-12, SEC, and Big 10 have been exclusively happy.  In the meantime, there are rumors upon rumors of the ACC being carved up, with fewer (but existing) rumors regarding the Big 10 eying more Big XII schools.  But what if the ACC, Big 10, SEC, and Big XII sat down and worked on a plan that would keep each of these conferences roughly happy, while allowing each conference to arguably expand its market base?

Consider that the Big 10 has eyes on the Southeast market, but is leery of alienating its midwestern base/roots.  While some people talk about expanding to 18 or 20, these additions always involve Michigan and/or Ohio State moving to the eastern side.  On the other hand, the Big XII has a grant of rights that makes it more difficult to pry away a school.  But what if everyone sat down and came up with a plan that would kind of/sort of make everyone happier.

First, the Big XII would give up its GOR rights for Kansas, allowing them to slide to the Big 10.  In exchange, the ACC would give up Pitt, who would slide to the Big XII.  The SEC would give up Missouri.  In exchange for Missouri, the ACC would give up North Carolina State.  Missouri would go to the Big 10.  The Big 10 would be at 16, the SEC at 14.  At 10 members, the Big XII would have the option of taking Cincinnati and USF to move into further new markets (Ohio and Florida), while also adding a conference game.  The ACC could take UConn–adding a new market to replace the NC State “market” lost.  The ACC could also take Temple, adding a private school in the Pennsylvania market.

This would result in:

SEC East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, NC State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky

SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi, Miss State, and Texas A&M.

Big 10 West: Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa

Big 10 East: Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State

Big XII South: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Big XII North: West Virginia, Pitt, Cincy, USF, Iowa State, Kansas State

ACC Atlantic: UConn, BC, Temple, Louisville, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, (ND)

ACC Coastal: Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, (Navy–same deal as ND, only less money?)

Issues:

Big XII loses Kansas–a major basketball power.  However, Kansas is also terrible at football.  The Big XII stays strong in football at the top by adding Cincy and USF–two beatable teams in great markets for recruiting.  Cincy and USF are on the upswing in hoops too.  Pitt is very established in hoops.  A nice home-and-home pod with Pitt and Cincy for West Virginia.

SEC loses Missouri, but picks up NC State.  A market for market swap that probably hurts the SEC somewhat.  But the SEC adds a school that gives inroads into North Carolina, while further fitting in better on the Eastern side.  If, in 10 years, the SEC and Big 10 decide to carve up the ACC–the SEC has a lure for North Carolina–State is already there.  Meanwhile, NC State is more of an SEC school in terms of football zeal by the fans.  The basketball program could thrive freed from the shadow of Duke and UNC too.

The Big 10 gets a stronger Western flank with Missouri and Kansas.  With both schools freed of games against the powers of the SEC and Big XII, they could thrive.  The divisions finally start to make geographic sense, allowing for a 9 game schedule–7 games inter-division, plus two games against other division.

The ACC loses NC State and Pitt–two decent football programs.  UConn and Temple are a downgrade… but this staves off a loss of the major football powers and the major markets/leaders.

 

Of course, in a perfect world, the existing conferences could sit down and make complete geographic sense.  But that cannot happen.  In the interim, however, the conferences could work to share markets to allow all TV deals to slide upwards.  Although it is will get the most criticism, the Big XII would really be the big winner here.  The adds of Pitt, Cincy, and USF would open up three major recruiting markets, without exactly taking on terrible metro markets (Pitt, Cincy, Tampa).

What do you think?  Even if impossible, does it make sense?

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Feb 2013
7 Comments

FOOTBALL COMPETITION AND REVENUE: PART I

This is a two-part series—a joint venture between HokieMark, who founder of http://accfootballrx.blogspot.com/ and acaffrey, founder of this blog.  We all need to thank HokieMark for putting this data into a very useful spreadsheet that allows the analysis. This data is out there for anyone to see. You may think you know what the correlation is between spending on football and on-field success. The purpose of this two-part article is to analyze whether you were right—what is the true correlation, if any, between spending on football and on-field success. Part I will explain the nature of the concern and some of the analysis. Part II will complete the analysis. Instead of publishing these on different days, we’ll publish them on different blogs. Remember to check out both. And we hope that you will take the time to comment on the discussion.  This is Part I.  Here is the link to Part II.

Part I

From 1973 to 1975, Florida State went 4-29 in football. Needless to say, the Seminoles were not a football “king” back then. In 1976, they hired a head coach named Bobby Bowden. Bowden had immediate success in turning the Seminoles into a decent football school, with a 10-win season and Tangerine Bowl appearance in 1977 and an 11-win season and Orange Bowl appearance in 1979. By 1987, the Seminoles went 11-2, beginning an incredible streak of fourteen straight 10+ win seasons. During this period, Florida State moved from football independence to the Atlantic Coast Conference (“ACC”). This did not slow the Seminoles down at all. As the calendar passed into a new millennium, Florida State was a football “king” by any definition.

However, for an 18-year-old college freshman on September 1, 2012, it had been quite a while since Florida State was in the hunt for a national title. Indeed, this person would have been in the first grade the last time the Seminoles had a 10-win season—the 11-2 campaign in 2000. To that person, college football was all about the Southeastern Conference (“SEC”), with schools like LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama winning national title after national title. Meanwhile, Florida State was struggling to get into the ACC championship game. How times had changed.

Of course, that same college freshman would have spent the summer of 2012 listening to Florida State fans discuss how they absolutely needed to move to a better football conference. To these fans, Florida State could not compete with their neighbors in the SEC because of the huge revenue disparity. It is unclear whether these fans were using money as an excuse for the mediocrity of the prior decade or expressing concern about the next decade to come. Fortunately for the Seminoles, Jimbo Fisher did not care about the revenue, instead just going back to doing what always worked in the past—developing recruits and coaching them well. In 2012, Fisher led the Seminoles to a 12-2 record, an ACC Championship, and an Orange Bowl victory.

But what about that proverbial “smoke” regarding the inability to financially compete with the SEC schools on the football field? Is there “fire” underlying this oft-repeated concern? Well, two ACC blogs decided to take a look at the actual numbers.

As a preliminary matter, it should be noted that revenue has not prevented non-AQ schools from being competitive. Boise State spent approximately $8M on football for data ending in June 2012. Future Big East members Houston and Tulane each spent more, actually.

Boston College spent more than twice as much as Boise State—an amazing $18M! Interestingly, Boston College also spent $10M on basketball, as well as $5M on hockey. The Eagles may have struggled on the court and on the field, but they spent some serious money to try to be competitive. Unfortunately, it did not work. You do not need a fancy degree to figure out that Boise State is a LOT more successful at football right now than Boston College.

We do not need to pick on Boston College. A lot of big spenders did poorly. Duke spent over $20M on football. Tennessee and Vanderbilt spend a similar amount of money on football–$20M and $19M, respectively. It has been quite a while since either played in a BCS bowl. Of course—these statistics are further interesting. Duke and Boston College spent about $38M on football, while Tennessee and Vanderbilt of the vaunted SEC spent about $37M on football. Can critics of the ACC really suggest that the ACC does not care about football when two of its private schools are spending more than two SEC counterparts?

Of course, not all SEC schools bother to spend as much on football as Tennessee and Vanderbilt. The Mississippi schools put a total of $24M into their two respective football programs. Kentucky does a little better, investing $14M.

Surely, the uber-wealthy Big 10 is all about football, right? Not so fast. Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, and Purdue all spend less than $17M on football. In fact, those four schools spent a total of $63M. That is approximately $16M per school.

But what about the ACC? Well, as noted above, Duke and Boston College do their part, spending $38M between them. Wake Forest, another school criticized for its football prowess (despite tending to beat Florida State), did lag behind by spending only $15M on football. Future Big 10 member, Maryland, fits right in at $14M. Still, these four ACC schools spent $67M on football, more than the four Big 10 schools discussed above.

In Part II, we will move away from the lower echelon of football success and take a look at the big football names and football expenses.


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference Realignment, Football, Hockey, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , ,
25 Feb 2013
1 Comment

The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: February 25, 2013

If you are a football fan, check out the newly-released full ACC schedules.  But, as this is basketball season, here is the weekly Top 12, with 5 precincts reporting:

#1 Duke, 3 first place votes, 57 points.

#2 Miami. 2 first place votes. 55 pts.

#3 (tie) Louisville & Syracuse.  48 pts.

#5 Notre Dame. 39 pts.

#6 Pittsburgh. 35 pts.

#7 North Carolina. 30 pts.

#8 North Carolina State. 26 pts.

#9 Maryland. 19 pts.

#10 Virginia. 18 pts.

#11 Florida State. 8 pts.

#12 Clemson. 7 pts.

With a win over Miami, Wake Forest got a vote!  Good for the Demon Deacons.

Some huge ranges…. some voters had North Carolina as low as 9th.  Same with Pitt.  Other voters had both schools has high as #4 (Pitt) and #5 (UNC).  One voter dropped Syracuse to 6th, while another put Syracuse ahead of Duke.  And, no, it was not the Syracuse correspondent.

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Correspondent Poll, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
23 Feb 2013
1 Comment

UNC Dominates!!!

Break a three-way tie for third in the ACC standings? Check!

Defend your homecourt and defeat your 2nd-biggest conference rival in the process? Check!

The Tar Heels left little doubt that they are back to form with their 76-65 rout  of NC State. Reggie Bullock, who was injured when these teams met in Raleigh, led all scorers with 22 and added 13 rebounds as Roy Williams’ Heels remained unbeaten against the Wolfpack in Chapel Hill.  James Michael McAdoo could do no wrong, with 14 points and 7 rebounds of his own.

The game itself was a bit ugly for a while.  Despite early turnover troubles, State hung in and were only down 34-28 at half. After a run of their own, the Pack led by four a couple of times.  But at about the six minute mark in the final segment, things changed dramatically.

Suddenly the Heels could do no wrong.  Even on the rare occasion in which they turned the ball over, the Pack could not finish and either missed or gave the possesion back.  To say that Carolina looked like the Harlem Globetrotters vs the Washington Generals is a profound insult to the Generals.

Not to say that the win was the result of Pack ineptitude.  Roy Williams obviously had his squad ready and when the game was on the line, the Heels were able to turn up the heat and secure the win.  That’s what champions do.

It’s probably too late for the Heels to make a run at the regular-season crown.  But I would be very nervous if I were a Duke or Miami fan going into Greensboro…very nervous indeed.

Disclaimer:

Fellow State fans, I am deeply sorry.  However, a bet’s a bet, and to be honest, it was kind of interesting to try and view this from another perspective.  And very, very painful.

Mr. Tar Heel, thanks for agreeing to this and I will (probably) never suggest it again. Congrats on the victory.

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, NC State Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , ,
23 Feb 2013
7 Comments

Syracuse-Georgetown Day!

Syracuse fans are thrilled to be going to the ACC next year.  But one of the downsides is the end to a rivalry like this.  Over the years this has been THE game for both Syracuse and Georgetown fans.  Today at 4pm on CBS the last ever Big East game at the Carrier Dome between these two storied programs.

Football rules college athletic decision making – but don’t tell that to the 34,000 fans that will pack the Carrier Dome today. With the nation’s longest home winning streak on the line, what Syracuse fan doesn’t remember the last game at Manley Field House when John Thompson concluded with saying Manley Field House was officially closed?  How about the Classic 1990 game where JT was ejected?

This ranks up there with NC-Duke.  All Big East fans will miss this rivalry.  Today will be college basketball at its best.  I hope all the ACC fans get a chance to take a look at this game today and see the Carrier Dome experience as new rivalaries get set to begin next year.

Anyone with other great SU-Georgetown moments they remember?

 

 

Posted by tjcuseacc in ACC only, Basketball, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , , , , ,
22 Feb 2013
4 Comments

State of the Pa…Tar Heels??

What? Here is the deal:

Last time State and UNC met, in a game that went the Wolfpack’s way but not by much, I gave you stats about the rivalry in my preview. This time, I have a slightly different idea.

Last time, ACC Confidential did not have a UNC correspondent. Now we do, in the guise of Mr. Tar Heel, whose posts have been consistently informative and engrossing, as have the posts from my other correspondent colleagues as well as our moderator’s.

So, on the eve of the rematch, I have a proposal for Mr. Tar Heel. Although I am not a betting man, I offer a friendly wager as follows:

If UNC wins, a distinct possibility since we are going to to their place and since this is being billed as a battle for 4th and a bye in the ACC tournament, then I will write a post praising the Heel’s performance. If State wins, then Mr. Tar Heel would write one praising the way the Pack took UNC to task. Simple. Elegant.

I haven’t brought this up via email or any other medium with Mr. Heel, so it may be that he will reject the idea faster than Richard Howell blocking a James Michael McAdoo layup. And that would be fair enough, since I am kind of putting him on the spot.

So, what say you, Mr. Tar Heel? Up for this?


Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, NC State Correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , ,
20 Feb 2013
18 Comments

Big 10 Expansion Petition

Until something more concrete is conceived, please consider signing and sharing this petition against Big 10 expansion:

https://www.change.org/petitions/the-ncaa-presidents-especially-big-10-presidents-stop-the-big-10-from-continuing-its-expansion#share

Whether you are a Big 10 fan that hates the addition of mediocre athletic institutions like Rutgers/Maryland and are otherwise sick of money driving things… or whether you are a fan of an ACC school who hates the idea of joining a midwestern conference… something needs to be done to give the fans power back.  We are the ones that make college athletics interesting, appeal to advertisers, etc.  If we stop caring, the money WILL GO DOWN.  Please stop giving us reasons to care less…

UPDATE: Even Frank the Tank is beginning to wonder about fire behind the rumored smoke.  http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/b1g-dirty-south-expansion/     Do not complain if something goes down and you did not share your voice before it happened.  The University presidents are too elitist to care, but maybe trustees will hear the message and wonder whether short-term $$$ is worth the long-term move to ambivalence by the fan bases.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
19 Feb 2013

The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: February 18, 2013

With apologies to all, the Confidential is on the road.  Anyway, the votes for this weeks’ poll were submitted before the Monday games, but the Confidential was slow to issue the rankings.  Here they are for February 18, 2013:

  1. Miami  21-3  (5 first place votes)  81 points
  2. Duke 22-3 (2 first place votes)  79 points
  3. Syracuse 21-4   70 points
  4. Louisville 21-5   58 points
  5. Notre Dame 20-6  51 points
  6. Pittsburgh  20-6  49 points
  7. NC State  18-7   46 points
  8. North Carolina  17-8   35 points
  9. Virginia  18-7  31 points
  10. Maryland  18-7  24 points
  11. Florida State 14-11  13 points
  12. Clemson 13-12   9 points

None of the bottom four received votes.  In case you were wondering.

If there standings were to be replicated in 2015, it would mean that 5 of the top 6 teams were formerly in the Big East.  Are the ACC’s veteran teams going to stand for that?

 

The poll continues to be variable between #4 and #8.  Louisville was the most consistent team in that spot, with all votes putting them 4th, 5th, or 6th.  No other school from #4 to #8 had that small a range.

 

What do you think?  How is the poll good or bad?

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Correspondent Poll, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
15 Feb 2013

State of the Pack: Basketball Red Zone

OK, now we find out who the Wolfpack really are.  Are we the team that was the ACC preseason favorite or the one that lost so many games they were supposed to win? Admittedly, winning the regular season is a ship that has sailed; it’s pretty much down to Duke and Miami at this point.

However, the close win over Clemson gave some reason to hope.  This game was the kind the Pack had been losing; a close contest in front of a rabid road crowd (no other kind in the ACC).  But when the Tigers had State on the ropes a funny thing happened; for perhaps the first time this season, the Wolfpack responded and were able to eke out a win over a lower-ranked team.

This is an excellent time to discover that State can win these games.  If you look at the rest of the season, there are no ranked teams left.  Per the most recent poll in the Confidential, and despite Virginia being ahead of them in the standings, NCSU is the third-best in the ACC (current membership, not the “futures”) at this point.  With apologies to our own Mr. Tar Heel, every game is winnable from here on out and I would not be surprised if we did finish 24-7 going into the conference tournament.  Of course, we could also go the other way, but my glass is half full and so, I believe, is the Pack’s.

All starts with Saturday’s game vs Va Tech.  Playing at home, we should show out and not be challenged.  This being the ACC, however, I would be satisfied with a nail-biter victory over Erick Green and company.  In the event of a loss, this post will self-destruct…sorry, watching Ghost Protocol on Netflix…

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, NC State Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , ,

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