The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the category “ACC only”

01 Nov 2011

West Virginia Sues Big East

Apparently, West Virginia is serious about leaving the Big East in time for 2012.  West Virginia has now filed a lawsuit against the Big East seeking to confirm that it may do so.  The import of this lawsuit is that it may lead to negotiations with West Virginia that ultimately pave the way for Pitt and Syracuse to join the ACC sooner.

The Confidential is not impressed with the merits of the West Virginia lawsuit.  It reads as little more than an air of “gripes” against the Big East, which–while perhaps legitimate–do not have anything to do with the negotiated 27-month period before exiting.  The 27-month period recognizes that schools can become dissatisfied and leave.  Unlike an at-will employee, West Virginia just has to provide 27-months notice.  As a practical matter, the waiting period gives the Big East ample time to find a suitable replacement and readjust schedules.  The waiting period is certainly logical.

However, the Confidential is also not persuaded that this is a lawsuit that West Virginia expects to win.  Instead, West Virginia expects the Big East to countersue for the damages caused by West Virginia not abiding to the 27-month waiting period.  This is where things get much more beneficial for West Virginia.

As a primer, it is a misconception that one cannot breach a contract.  A person is free to breach any contract he or she wants.  Among the purposes of a contract are to give the other party the right to sue for damages if there is a breach of contract.  In the absence of a contract, West Virginia could do what it wants.  With a contract, West Virginia may be sued for damages.

The mere fact that West Virginia intends to breach a contract is not proof of the Big East’s damages.  Think about it logically.  You hire a landscaper to mow your own once a week for $25 for the summer.  The landscaper calls you up and says I cannot do it anymore.  You hire another landscaper, who charges $45 a week because his slate is full.  Your damages are $20/week because of the breach of contract.  You could sue for that (but wouldn’t due to the low amount, obviously).  However, what if you hired a neighborhood teen to mow the lawn for $25 a week and this teen does just as good a job as the landscaper?  In that instance, you would not incur damages from the breach.  So the landscaper is off the hook, even though he breached the contract.

With respect to West Virginia’s situation, the Big East would have to prove damages caused by West Virginia not fulfilling its 27-month waiting period.  If West Virginia agrees to stay for 10 months, rather than 27 months, the Big East would have to prove the damages caused by West Virginia’s refusal to stay that extra 17 months.

But with good lawyering and a competent judge, West Virginia should be able to show that these damages do not include the damages caused by West Virginia leaving the conference generally.  The contract allows West Virginia to leave.  The only issue is leaving early.  If so, West Virginia should not be responsible for a reduction in television contract revenue or change in bowl structure.

If West Virginia cannot be replaced by 2012, this would leave a vacancy for the Big East.  In that circumstance, the schools might have to hire replacement opponents for football.  The costs there might be an element of damages, but no more than a few million dollars.  Basketball is unlikely to present this problem.  West Virginia would gladly agree to pay an extra few million to leave the conference.

Perhaps the schools could seek differences in attendance.  But that would be awfully hard to prove.  If 35,000 people show up to watch Rutgers host replacement Florida International, how does Rutgers prove that West Virginia would have drawn more?  Attendance is driven by the rankings on the schools.  If Rutgers was having a poor season, the quality of the opponent would not matter as much.  If West Virginia is having a down season, they are less of a draw for the home team.  And one can only guess as to the records when the schedules are revised.  Plus, who is to say what week each game would be.  It all gets very speculative and difficult to prove with much certainty.  It does not make it impossible, but it would give the Big East reason to negotiate.  In the end, it can be expected that this lawsuit will lead to a quicker resolution of the departure period and additional cost of doing so than would have been otherwise reached.

Returning to the ACC, the quicker that West Virginia and the Big East sort this out, the quicker that a “precedent” can be set for Syracuse and Pitt to depart.  If, for example, West Virginia settles with the Big East for $4 million extra, Pitt and Syracuse can approach the Big East with the same offer.  In essence, the ACC, Pitt, and Syracuse get to allow West Virginia and the Big XII do their dirty work for them.  The West Virginia lawsuit may lead to earlier realignment for the ACC.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , ,
31 Oct 2011

ACC Football Rankings

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 31, 2011:

1.  Clemson–The Confidential is sticking with Clemson here.  Losing to Georgia Tech was disappointing, but not disastrous.

2. Virginia Tech–hard to move the Hokies after they only barely beat Duke.

3. Georgia Tech–the win over Clemson gets things back on track.

4. Florida State–dominant win over North Carolina State suggests that better times are ahead.

5. Miami–the loss to Virginia is a step backward.

6. North Carolina– Almost moved the Tarheels ahead of Miami.  Impressive win over Wake Forest.

7.  Syracuse– Hugely disappointing loss to Louisville.  They get the edge with the win over Wake Forest.

8.  Wake Forest–Needed that North Carolina win to get to the next level.

9.  Virginia– With wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, this is the one team that may be significantly underrated at this point.  The Confidential is feeling a bit guilty here.

10. Pittsburgh— A win over UConn without their best player gets them the nod here, but it may be a short-lived stay this high.

11.  Duke—Playing the Hokies close is better than getting shellacked by the Seminoles.  We still expect NC State and Duke to flip.

12. North Carolina State–hard to not penalize a team that did not score.  I am sure the Wolfpack will rise up a few slots soon enough.

13. Boston College– the head-to-head matters, but the fact that Maryland just seems to have quit on Edsall carries the day.

14. Maryland- Beating Boston College to go to 3-5 was imperative.  This team is reeling.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
30 Oct 2011

No ACC Teams in New AP Top 10

The October 30, 2011, AP poll has now been released:

AP Top 25 Ranking

Rank Team Record Pts Last Week
1. LSU (47) 8-0 1439 1
2. Alabama (10) 8-0 1401 2
3. Oklahoma St. 8-0 1305 3
4. Stanford 8-0 1278 4
5. Boise St. (1) 7-0 1241 5
6. Oregon 7-1 1148 7
7. Oklahoma 7-1 1096 11
8. Arkansas 7-1 1035 8
9. Nebraska 7-1 976 13
10. South Carolina 7-1 861 14
11. Clemson 8-1 851 6
12. Virginia Tech 8-1 755 15
13. Michigan 7-1 718 17
14. Houston 8-0 611 18
15. Michigan St. 6-2 586 9
16. Penn St. 8-1 553 21
17. Kansas St. 7-1 536 10
18. Georgia 6-2 446 22
19. Wisconsin 6-2 420 12
20. Arizona St. 6-2 384 23
21. USC 6-2 323 20
22. Georgia Tech 7-2 230 NR
23. Cincinnati 6-1 128 24
24. West Virginia 6-2 111 25
25. Auburn 6-3 107 NR
Others Receiving Votes:

  • Texas 99,
  • Southern Miss 67,
  • Washington 52,
  • Ohio St. 37,
  • TCU 26,
  • Texas A&M 25,
  • Florida St. 4,
  • Notre Dame 1
ACC observations:
  • It is not at all surprising that Clemson dropped in the polls, given the loss to Georgia Tech.
  • And it is perfectly reasonable for Georgia Tech to move back into the standings at #22.
  • Despite narrowly beating Duke, Virginia Tech moved up a few spots in the standings as well.
  • And Florida State’s big win over North Carolina State has them back receiving a few votes.
  • As such, the ACC has 4 of the top 32 teams right now.  Decent, but not outstanding.
General observations:
  • Hard to disagree with the top 5 right now.
  • Boise St. is a BIG Georgia fan, needless to say.
  • Kind of surprising to see Michigan State drop below Michigan.  The Spartans just got done with a four-game stretch involving Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.  Going 3-1 is fairly impressive.  That Notre Dame loss certainly hurts.
  • The new Big 12 has 5 of the top 30 teams.  The new SEC has 7 of the top 31 teams, including 4 in the top 10.
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , ,
30 Oct 2011

And then there were none… Clemson loses to Georgia Tech

They say that college football is great because every week is a playoff game.  The Confidential tends to agree.  With a few exceptional situations or seasons, only undefeated teams have a chance of being one of the top two teams and, therefore, eligible to play for the national championship.  The season starts with all undefeated teams and gradually whittles its way down to just a few.  Going into Week #9, the ACC was fortunate enough to still have an undefeated team: Clemson.  After Week 9, however, the ACC has been eliminated from the national title picture because Clemson lost to Georgia Tech, 31-17.

At 7-2, the Georgia Tech win over now 8-1 Clemson should not be seen as a total surprise.  And the story should be about Georgia Tech.  Unfortunately, college football is a sport of tiers, with Clemson vying to join the top tier for 2011.  So, with all due respect to Georgia Tech, the lead on this story is Clemson losing, rather than Georgia Tech winning.

But The Confidential will give Georgia Tech its due praise.  After losing at Virginia and Miami, it looked as if the Yellow Jackets 6-0 start was a bit of a mirage.  Neither Virginia nor Miami is in the conference title picture.  With Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia remaining on the schedule, there was certainly a chance of finishing with a very mediocre season result.  In defeating Clemson, Georgia Tech took the first step towards avoiding a second-half collapse.

Amazingly, Georgia Tech was able to beat Clemson with virtually no passing game.  Although Georgia Tech does not put up significant passing numbers in most games, averaging about 120 yards per game, they only passed for 60 yards against Clemson.  That’s not a misprint.  60 yards.  Instead, this win was a product of 300 rushing yards, with more than half coming from quarterback Tevin Washington.  Although he has averaged about 60 yards per game rushing, Washington ran for 174 yards against Clemson.

Another story was turnovers.  As it often the case with a football game at any level, Clemson’s four turnovers told much of the story. In the first quarter, Clemson recovered a punt at its own 36 yard line.  On the second play, it fumbled, allowing Georgia Tech to start a drive at the 19 yard line.   This led to a touchdown.  After intercepting a Georgia Tech pass in the fourth quarter in a two-possession game, Clemson had the ball at the Georgia Tech 9-yard line.  On the very next play, Clemson threw an interception.  Give Georgia Tech credit though.  After getting that 4th quarter interception, they marched the ball down the field in a drive consuming nearly 9 minutes of fourth-quarter time.  Even though that drive did not result in a score, it gave Clemson too little time to mount a comeback.

And just like that, the ACC’s hopes of having a team in the national title game evaporated.  Clemson remains in the hunt for a BCS bowl appearance.  The November 10 matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will go a long way towards determining who plays in the ACC championship game.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , ,
29 Oct 2011

Boston College Gets First 2011 ACC Win

This has been a tough season for Boston College.  No doubt about it. After going bowling last year, Boston College traveled to College Park to take on a Maryland team that has been only slightly better this year.  This made-for-radio battle between two struggling teams was Boston College’s best remaining chance for a win over an FBS school and a conference win.  To its credit, Boston College rose to the occasion and beat Maryland, 28-17.

In fairness, Boston College has been playing without standout running back, Montel Harris.  Harris had nearly 3,600 rushing yards coming into this season.  Today’s win was fueled by 243 yards of rushing from sophomore Rolandan Finch.  Finch nearly doubled his season rushing output in this one game.

With the weather inclement, Boston College was unable to mount any type of passing game.  Boston College attempted 12 passes for only 32 yards.  That is not a misprint–32 yards of passing!  This Boston College run was all about the running game.  With Finch and Andre Williams combining for more than 300 yards of rushing.

For Maryland, the season just gets worse.  Maryland drops to 2-6 overall, with wins against a suspension-depleted Miami team opening week and FCS Towson.  This was the fourth straight conference loss for the Terrapins.  Of course, the first three losses were against unbeaten Clemson, highly ranked Georgia Tech, and Florida St.  But today’s loss got the much-easier final stretch of games off to a poor start.

In fact, it will be interesting to see what the fan reaction to Randy Edsall will be.  Working in Edsall’s favor is the fact that Maryland was 2-10 in 2009.  However, sandwiched around that season were bowl games.  This is not a historically bad season, as was the case with Rich Rodriguez in Michigan, who never could recover the confidence of the fan base after a very poor first year.  But Maryland was 9-4 last year and went bowling.  The fan base has a basis to argue that the cupboard could not have been THAT bare.  Should be interesting times in College Park as the season winds down.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,
28 Oct 2011

Tarheels Top Preseason AP Poll

The Preseason AP poll has been released and the North Carolina Tarheels were ranked #1.

The Complete Poll is as follows:

1. N. Carolina (62), 1,620
2. Kentucky, 1,501
3. Ohio St. (1), 1,482
4. UConn (2), 1,433
5. Syracuse, 1,338
6. Duke, 1,301
7. Vanderbilt, 1,120
8. Florida, 1,086
9. Louisville, 1,055
10. Pittsburgh, 1,027
11. Memphis, 997
12. Baylor, 892
13. Kansas, 755
14. Xavier, 747
15. Wisconsin, 720
16. Arizona, 616
17. UCLA, 404
18. Michigan, 401
19. Alabama, 395
20. Texas A&M, 357
21. Cincinnati, 353
22. Marquette, 335
23. Gonzaga, 283
24. California, 230
25. Missouri, 139
Others receiving votes: Florida St. 131, Michigan St. 128, Temple 69, Washington 44, New Mexico 33, Butler 25, Texas 21, Villanova 14, Creighton 12, Purdue 10, Belmont 8, Drexel 8, UNLV 7, Saint Mary’s (Cal) 6, George Mason 5, West Virginia 4, Long Beach St. 3, Miami 3, Harvard 2, Illinois 2, Marshall 1, Minnesota 1, San Diego St. 1.

The future version of the ACC has 4 of the top 10 teams, but nobody else in the top 25.  And of the four teams ranked in the top 10, Syracuse and Pitt are so ranked as current members of the Big East.  That makes the conference both top-heavy and weak heading into the season.  A few teams are going to need to have surprising seasons for the conference to generate respect.  Interestingly, perennial football powers Florida St. and Miami were among the others receiving votes.

It is notable that, even removing Big East defectors Syracuse, Pitt, and (now) West Virginia, the Big East still has the #4 team (UConn), the #9 team (Louisville), the #21 team (Cincinnati), the #22 team (Marquette), and Villanova also receiving votes.  The addition of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC will undoubtedly even the gap in future seasons.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
28 Oct 2011

Expansion Sooner?

The Big XII’s decision to accept West Virginia to get to 10 schools seemingly does not involve the ACC.  To be sure, The Confidential was a bit more supportive than others of the ACC taking a look at pairing West Virginia with Notre Dame someday.  But most prognosticators believed Rutgers or UConn to be the extra-point to any future addition of Notre Dame.

Where this DOES impact the ACC is that West Virginia is reportedly confident that it can leave the Big East in time to join the Big XII for 2012.   That is news.  There is talk that this is an issue that can be resolved by sheer money, with Pitt being offered the chance to leave earlier for $21 million.  It is difficult to envision a scenario where $21 million is a sensible amount to pay to leave 17 months early.  However, this does suggest that Pitt and Syracuse may be able to extract themselves from the Big East sooner than expected.  If so, the ACC will be “whole” in time for 2012.

There is little doubt that the ACC has contingency plans in place for a 2012 start to a 14-team ACC.  It may actually happen.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , ,
27 Oct 2011

Big Tests This Saturday

There are a number of interesting games this Saturday.

College football is about having elite teams.  Having a 9-3 conference champion may show that your league has parity, but the nation only cares about the undefeated teams.  Clemson has a chance of reaching that elite status this year, which would be huge for the ACC.  This week, Clemson will be tested by Georgia Tech.  While the Yellow Jackets are reeling right now, they are a formidable foe.  The league would benefit from having Clemson win this game.  And win out until the conference championship game.

In the 1990’s, Florida State could be counted on for 10 and 11 win seasons.  Now?  Not so much.  A game against North Carolina State is the type of game that the old Florida State would handle. The ACC needs Florida State to return to elite status.  Losing a game like this is another step in the wrong direction.

Wake Forest has been a surprise team this year.  After narrowly losing to Syracuse in the opener, Wake Forest has acquitted itself well this year.  North Carolina did well out-of-conference, but has struggled within the conference.  This should be a great matchup.

Boston College v Maryland is not a good game because of the prowess of the two schools.  But it may represent Boston College’s best chance of winning a conference game this year.  Recall that Maryland lost to Temple.  And it was not even close.

Virginia Tech gets Duke.  Duke is improved this year, so Virginia Tech has to be careful.  The Hokies’ can occasionally be vulnerable in games that the rest of the country considers “easy wins.”

After losing to Maryland in the opener, Miami has done reasonably well this year.  The ACC needs Miami to step up and win the winnable games.  While Virginia is on the upswing, the ACC needs its elite programs to return to prominence.

For the new members, Syracuse heads to Louisville this week.  For ACC fans, the rooting interest is easy.  A return to national respectability for Syracuse will help the conference.

And congrats to Pitt for beating UConn in a rare Wednesday night game.  I am sure Pitt will not miss having to play midweek games.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Oct 2011
2 Comments

ACC Football Rankings

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 26, 2011:

1.  Clemson–hard to argue with 8-0.

2. Virginia Tech—  again, hard to argue with 7-1.

3. Miami–the Kansas St. loss looks more impressive with every week.  The win over Georgia Tech makes this an easy selection for #3.

4.  Georgia Tech— this starts to get more difficult.  The losses to Virginia and, to a lesser extent, Miami cause some concern.  But with games against #1 and #2 coming up, we’ll find out real soon whether this team was a mirage.

5.  Syracuse– Fresh off the win over previously ranked West Virginia, and coupled with an early season win over Wake Forest, I’ll give the Orange the nod here.

6.  Wake Forest– That season opening loss to Syracuse looks better now, but the win over Florida State is key here.

7.  Florida State–  The most impressive wins are Duke and Virginia.  This is not your father’s Florida State team.

8.  North Carolina State– The loss to Cincinnati is looking more justifiable now.  At some point, this team needs an upset though.

9.  North Carolina– With a win over Rutgers and a win over Virginia, we’ll discount the three losses to teams at the top of these standings.

10. Virginia– The win over Georgia Tech may say more about Georgia Tech fizzling, but it is the best win among the remaining teams.

11. Maryland– This gets REALLY tough down here.  Maryland did beat a rattled Miami team Week 1.  They also rallied against West Virginia.  Grasping at straws at this point.

12. Pittsburgh— Pitt has played a tough-ish schedule, so we’ll give them the nod here.  The win over South Florida is now looking less impressive though.

13. Duke— Overcoming a loss to Richmond is progress.  The win over Boston College certainly helps.  The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Blue Devils though.  Hard to see them leapfrogging anyone.

14. Boston College– The anti-Clemson.  No wins over a FBS school yet.  Ugh.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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