The Confidential

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Archive for the category “Basketball”

2014 College Basketball: Overview of the Previews

It’s apparently NEVER too early to talk college basketball.  All of the pundits have their early–very early–predictions for 2013-2014 started up.  Even though it is not even clear who is staying and who is leaving (players have until April 28, 2013, to declare for the NBA), these projections are being made.  So we must analyze.

First, the Confidential is a huge fan of Jay Bilas.  Most of his opinions are fair and make a lot of sense.  Not all of them.  But most of them.  Here is the early Bilas index for 2013-2014, truncated to 25, rather than 68:

  1. Kentucky
  2. Louisville
  3. Duke
  4. Michigan State

Hmmm… four of the best college basketball coaches.  Not exactly reaching here.

Any other ACC schools in the mix?  Yep: #6 is North Carolina, #11 is Syracuse, #13 is Notre Dame, and #23 is Virginia.  Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina State did not make the list….but would likely be in his top 68, had he done one.

Second, if the start of the 2013-2014 is far away, how about the 2014 selection Sunday?  But that did not stop Bracketologist Joe Lunardi from taking an early look at the field.  He has Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Arizona as the four #1 seeds.  For the ACC schools:

  • Duke is a #1 seed
  • Syracuse and Louisville are seeded at #2
  • North Carolina is a #3 seed
  • Virginia is a #4 seed
  • Notre Dame is a #6 seed

That, all in all, is not TOO different from the Bilas index.  And, although Lunardi goes out to 68 teams, no other ACC team cracks a top 68 where 30 teams are given automatic bids.  Joe also needs to update things to reflect that Notre Dame, Pitt, and Syracuse are part of the ACC.  But we’ll cut him some slack since the change is not implemented yet.

Third, the Big Lead has a top 25.  The top 4 teams are–surprise–Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Ohio State.  North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, and Notre Dame–and no others (except Louisville, obviously)–crack the top 25.

So there you have it.  There is a consensus that Kentucky, Duke, and Michigan State are the top 3 teams heading into 2013-2014.  For the ACC, five teams (plus Louisville) will be ranked.  Hard to disagree with any of those projections.

Can you?

NBA Draft & The ACC

The April 16, 2013, deadline has come and gone, meaning that anyone who decides to go pro between now and April 28, 2013, will make that decision as a point-of-no-return.  That will not stop folks from doing so, but the consequences will be a bit sharper.  At this point, those eligible for the NBA draft are what they are.  There are a number of ACC players that will be among the players drafted.  Who are they?

First of all, who are the early entries from ACC schools so far?  CBS Sportsline has a nice list going.  Here are the players from the ACC schools on the list:

  • Steven Adams, Pitt
  • Lorenzo Brown, NC State
  • Reggie Bullock, North Carolina
  • Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
  • Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
  • Alex Len, Maryland
  • CJ Leslie, NC State

Second, where will these kids go?  Well, here is where Chad Ford slots these guys, and other ACC draft-eligibles, in terms of overall NBA talent:

  • Len, #8
  • Carter-Williams, #10
  • Dieng, #17
  • Mason Plumlee, Duke, #18
  • Adams, #26
  • Brown, #42
  • Bullock, #45
  • Russ Smith, Louisville, #53
  • Leslie, #61
  • James Southerland, Syracuse, #81
  • Richard Howell, NC State, #82
  • Ryan Kelly, Duke, #88
  • Michael Snaer, Florida State, #92

A few other players to note.  These guys are all still undecided: Shane Larkin of Miami is at #30; Rasheed Sulaimon of Duke is at #48; and CJ Fair of Syracuse is at 71.  The decision should be tough for Larkin, but fairly easy for Fair.  You want to be pretty certain you get a first round contract if you are going to leave.

 

 

Louisville players considering the NBA

Louisville head basketball coach Rick Pitino woke up Monday morning to the news of his election into the basketball Hall of Fame. That night he coached his Cardinals to their third National Championship in school history while making history himself as being the only coach to win national championships at multiple schools (Kentucky in 1996). It’s truly a time of celebration here in Louisville. It has been 27 years since Denny Crum coached his team, lead by freshman Pervis Ellison and senior Milt Wagner, to Louisville second National Championship back in 1986. But as the fans continue their celebration, several U of L players now have an important decision to make, stay in school or enter the NBA draft. Unlike in past years, they now only have about a week to make that life changing decision.

Chane Behanan came to U of L as a McDonald’s All-American. His 15 pts. and 12 reb. performance against Michigan had me wondering if would be back next season or if he would be tempted to go pro. It seems by the quickness that he made his decision to come back for his junior year that it was an easy decision for him after all. While it seems that he has the strength and skills of an NBA prospect, his 6′-6” frame is small for a pro power forward.

Peyton Siva is a senior point guard. Despite his elite speed and passing abilities, his drawbacks of not possessing a reliable jump shot and being turnover prone probably will prevent him from being drafted. While he is considered a top 30 senior he is barely considered a top 100 overall prospect in the upcoming draft, according to reports. Coach Pitino has often compared him to Florida head coach Billy Donovan so you may one day see him roaming the sidelines as a head coach.

Russ Smith’s father was quoted shortly after the game Monday night as to saying that his son was headed for the NBA draft. The timing seems right coming off of a national championship and while people are still talking about his game. However coach Pitino did his due diligence and applied for NBA assessments and shared those reports with Russ. According to the latest local Pitino interviews, he says his All Big East junior guard is now 60/40 coming back for his senior year. Russ has come along way in his three years at Louisville. After his freshman season he was rumored to be following Assistant coach Steve Masiello when he took the head coaching job at Manhattan College. He stayed and worked hard in the offseason on his game and in the weight room. He made a name for himself by scoring 30+ points against the Anthony Davis led Kentucky Wildcats in his sophomore season. He improved his game further during his junior season and began to alter his reputation as an erratic ball-hog to being more of a controlled chaos type of player. He has many attributes that the NBA is looking for such as his outstanding instincts at both ends of the court, excellent speed, ball handling skills and he is a terrific transition player. His unpredictableness and aggressive style of play makes him an entertaining player. He needs to work on his decision-making, ball distribution and jump shot or his 6′ 160 lbs frame may keep him a second draft pick.

Gorgui Dieng seems to be the most ready NBA prospect from this NC team. He is also the one who would most rather come back and graduate before going pro. The 6’11” 245 lbs junior center with a 7’6” wingspan hails from Kebemer, Senegal and grew up playing soccer. He learned to speak English in about two months, education is a high priority in his family. Despite playing basketball for only a few years, arriving in America in 2009, he has matured quickly and still has tremendous potential. His most notable attributes are for being a shot blocker, he is U of L single season blocks leader, and a tremendous passer from the post. He has an effective hook shot, turn around jumper and he finishes well. Already being 23 years old, this may be the best time for him to go pro. The mock drafts has him as the 17th pick.

With or without Smith and/or Dieng, Louisville is poised to make a run at a repeat with a top 10 recruiting class coming in to complement their returning players. If Kevin Ware is unable to make a comeback next season however, Russ Smith could provide a critical experience to its group of incoming freshman guards. I want to thank everyone for giving me this opportunity to talk about one of my passions, University of Louisville sports.

N-C-A-Absurdity

The college basketball season just ended.  You knew that from your bracket.  Heck, even Ned Flanders would think a bracket is too much fun to be immoral.  But the season just ended two days ago.  And guess when the deadline is for college underclassmen to decide whether to turn pro?  Next freakin’ Tuesday, according to Syracuse.com, who laid this all out for Syracuse fans wondering what CJ Fair is going to do.

This is the timeline:

  • April 8, 2013: Championship Game
  • April 10, 2013: The deadline to apply for an assessment from the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee
  • April 15, 2013: The deadline to receive assessment from the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee
  • April 16, 2013: NCAA Early Entry Withdrawal Deadline

That’s right.  The underclassmen in the Final Four have exactly one week to decide that they are not going to make themselves eligible for the draft.  The most important decision of their respective lives, and the NCAA gives kids as little as one week to decide.  Even worse, a kid like CJ Fair can receive his “assessment” on April 15 and get a whole 24 hours to decide.  24 hours.

An NCAA apologist might say that a kid could still decide to go pro between April 16 and April 28.  However, anyone choosing to go pro during that period would give up their NCAA eligibility.  There is no chance to return to college at that point.

It gets better.  The purpose of moving up the dates to crunch this timeline was…. get ready for this… to benefit the student-athlete.  That’s right, the NCAA is actually telling the world, with a straight face presumably, that they tightened the deadlines to help kids.  The Syracuse.com article stated as follows: “The NCAA moved this date up in 2012 ‘to help keep student-athletes focused on academics in the spring term and to give coaches a better idea of their roster for the coming year before the recruiting period is closed,’ according to the organization.”  Right.  The latter part of the sentence is true, but not the former.  This has nothing to do with helping kids.

If the NCAA cared about the players, it would allow them to go all the way through the draft, see where they are drafted, and then decide whether to come back to college.  Indeed, as long as the player did not sign a contract, why should they be deemed to have lost their amateur status?  Larry Bird was drafted by the Boston Celtics in 1978.  He played for Indiana State in the 1978-1979 season.  He then went pro for the 1979-1980 season, and the rest is history.  Despite the Boston Celtics holding his rights, amateur athletics did not come to a halt.  Things worked out quite well, actually.

Surely, you say, it would be improper for any current college athlete to be drafted and stay in college, right?  Well, not if you are a baseball player.  The MLB draft is set up to allow the drafting of three categories of players:

  • High school players, if they have graduated from high school and have not yet attended college or junior college;
  • College players, from four-year colleges who have either completed their junior or senior years or are at least 21 years old; and
  • Junior college players, regardless of how many years of school they have completed

A high school player that is drafted, but chooses not to sign gets to go play college baseball.  The NCAA will let him play.  For a while, as the college baseball player will not be eligible again for the MLB draft until he turns 21 or completes his junior season.  So, somehow, the NCAA allows drafted, but unsigned, baseball players to compete.  It works the same way in hockey.

So, why is there one set of rules for baseball and hockey, but a much more onerous set of rules for basketball and football?  If you are an optimist, you think it is because the NCAA makes so much money with football and basketball, that they care a lot more about keeping the amateur ranks clean.  But, if you think about it, that cannot be.  If it was only about ratings and attendance, keeping the best basketball and football players around would be even more profitable.  If you are a pessimist, you might suspect racism.  Right?  The more “white” the sport, the more likely the NCAA is to allow you to be drafted and return to college nonetheless.  At the very least, with a largely African-American sport such as basketball, the NCAA is more than willing to force kids to make a decision, one that will either be smart or terrible, in one week.  Every time a basketball player leaves early, is not drafted, and is never heard from again… it is a warning sign to others that might consider leaving early.  The NCAA will gladly ruin someone’s life to protect their cash cow.  Especially when they are ruining a young African-American male’s life.  Yes, this is a pessimistic view, all right.

Hey… if you can find a rationale for having different rules for the different sports, feel free to share it.  The Confidential would love to hear why it must be different.

Whatever the reason, it is just one more example of just how absurd the NCAA is.  But you knew that already…

 

 

Update on ACC Revenue

CBS is reporting that the future addition of Notre Dame will have an immediate impact on revenue.  Even with just a 5-game football schedule and basketball games, Notre Dame will contribute in excess of $1M additional to the television revenue for each school.  While this is not “catching up to the Big 10” money, the gap between the conferences is not as wide as reported.  This may be why there are lots of rumors regarding schools leaving, but few actually doing so.

That same article also reports as follows regarding an ACC Network:

The ACC is currently considering a 24-hour sports channel with ESPN, which is gathering information and will return to the league with an assessment. If ESPN makes an offer the ACC likes, plans for a channel might commence. The league is evaluating whether a channel makes the most business sense.

Look, who knows if an ACC Network would be successful?  What is clear, however, is that the Big 10 Network is successful. This is where things are headed.  If there is not going to be an ACC Network, then ACC teams might very well end up on the Big 10 Network, to ESPN’s loss.

Perhaps ESPN would benefit from some sort of joint network between the SEC and the ACC, where both channels are a package that is available from the Northeast down to Florida and West to Texas.  That’s a lot of territory to bundle the packages together.  The price could be determined by media market.  The SEC channel could be 90 cents a month in Texas, while the ACC channel could be 10 cents a month there.  But in North Carolina, it could be the inverse.  The extra revenue provided by the bundling would help get both channels more market saturation.

Then again, the Confidential is hardly a financial or television tycoon.  Perhaps ESPN is moving towards jai alai, as that will be the sport of the 22nd century.

What do you think?  ACC Network have ANY potential?

Confidential Bracket: Final!

Well, it’s over.  Louisville represented the future ACC well by defeating Michigan of the imperialist Big 10.  So that’s a double victory for ACC fans.

Winners bracket proved prophetic by, well, winning.  So that individual wins the prize.

If you liked participating in this, please leave a comment below.  We’ll try to do more of them…

Rank
Bracket
1
2
3
4
Semis
Finals
Bonus Pts
Total Pts
1
WinnersBracket
48 39 25 8 13 21 (Louisville) 30 184
2
TheEssentialsOfCool.com
48 30 15 16 13 21 (Louisville) 23 166
3
Cards 80 86 13?
44 21 15 16 26 21 (Louisville) 17 160
4
Florida State
50 30 20 16 13 0 (Kansas) 29 158
5
LenVILLE
48 30 15 8 13 21 (Louisville) 18 153
6
Cuse Stormin the ACC
48 30 25 16 13 0 (Syracuse) 21 153
7
KC’s Bracket
46 33 10 8 13 21 (Louisville) 16 147
8
Maverick
44 30 20 8 13 21 (Louisville) 8 144
9
Allen’s Bracket
40 27 15 16 13 21 (Louisville) 11 143
10
Da Cuseman Cometh
42 30 25 16 13 0 (Syracuse) 17 143
11
Otto the Great and Powerful
42 33 15 8 13 21 (Louisville) 0 132
12
My Legit Bracket
42 33 15 8 13 21 (Louisville) 0 132
13
Boeheimian Rhapsody
50 27 20 8 0 0 (Syracuse) 23 128
14
Boeheims possible farewell
44 30 20 16 0 0 (Syracuse) 17 127
15
QBcuse
36 27 10 8 13 21 (Louisville) 4 119
16
Will Bonn’s Bracket
42 27 25 0 0 0 (Indiana) 18 112
17
win prizes
40 30 20 0 0 0 (Gonzaga) 20 110
18
Bye Bye Big East
46 33 15 0 0 0 (Georgetown) 12 106
19
KAOS
36 30 20 8 0 0 (Georgetown) 12 106
20
*Commander Caffrey
38 27 10 8 13 0 (Indiana) 8 104
21
Rebecca’s Dandy Bracket
40 30 15 0 0 0 (Duke) 18 103
22
Goop’s Bracket
40 33 10 0 0 0 (Miami (FL)) 20 103
23
BracketBuster.
46 24 15 0 0 0 (Kansas) 16 101
24
mikemab wolf
42 27 20 0 0 0 (Ohio St.) 6 95
25
BeerThirty
40 27 15 0 0 0 (Miami (FL)) 8 90

What’s New in Conference Expansion

The Confidential is going to take a quick look around the conferences to see what is going on in conference expansion news:

The Big 10–the commentators over at Frank the Tank are busy arguing over whether the Big 10 will be taking some of the ACC or all of the ACC.  The blog author, himself, is focused on the division realignments with Rutgers and Maryland coming aboard soon enough:

It appears that the Big Ten office is heeding the calls for the “Keep It Simple Stupid” approach of dividing the soon-to-be 14-team conference into East and West divisions, with Michigan State heading East with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers and Maryland, the West having Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota and the only debate being where Indiana and Purdue will be placed.  IU-PU will then be the only protected cross-division rivalry.

It’s a pretty Big 10 centric place.  They are trying to decide whether 14, 16, 20, 80, or 200 teams is best.

The SEC–Mr. SEC has quoted the Missouri athletic director Mike Alden as essentially saying that the SEC will stay at 14 teams unless it decides not to.  Sounds like they are not doing anything.  Unless they do.

The Pac-12–This conference is in Monopoly jail.  Nowhere to go expansion-wise.  Unless Texas decides to come west, who would they add?  Boise State is not academically suited, nor is UNLV.  San Diego State and New Mexico are not worth expanding.  BYU is too religious.  So much for that.

The Big XII–nothing new to report on this front.

The ACC–nothing new to report on this front, other than the expectations of future pillaging.

The Big East–is now a basketball conference, having added Butler, Creighton, and Xavier.  They also have the name The Big East, having taken that from the Big East leftovers.  With Marquette and DePaul joining those three in the West, and Georgetown, Seton Hall, Villanova, St. Johns, and Providence in the East, that is not too shabby of a hoops conference.

The Big East leftovers now have a new name– the American Athletic Conference.  Tulsa is the latest addition to this group.

Conference USA– is thinking about going to 16 teams.  Heck, the Confidential did not even know that they had 14, especially after the American Athletic Conference has taken so many.  Western Kentucky will be taking Tulsa’s spot.

Beyond that it just gets way too confusing.  Too many moving parts.

 

State of the Pack: QBs and more

There was an interesting email in my box yesterday from our own administrator Anthony Caffery (aka Commander Caffrey). It referenced the possibility of Drew Allen, Oklahoma backup, transferring to State. Unfortunately the article he directed me to seemed to indicate that Allen is leaning toward Syracuse.  Here’s the link:

Since as the article states he will be eligible immediately following any transfer that makes him a player in the mix for us if he decides to come to State.  Which begs the question: what does the QB situation look like for the Pack in 2013?
The two leading candidates to start are Colorado transfer Pete Thomas and soph Manny Stocker.  Thomas seems to have a slight edge right now and is getting more first-team snaps. Coach Doeren told the Charlotte Observer that he wanted to go with the guy who makes the fewest mistakes. Link is here:
Of course we will continue to look at the QB and other positions on the Wolfpack roster as the spring and summer progress.  New coaches and coordinators, new season coming…I am starting to yearn for fall.  At least the part after the less-than-ambitious non-conference schedule.
Here are a few items about other Pack teams:
Basketball:
The 2013-14 edition of the Wolfpack will not look much like this season’s, and perhaps that is a good thing.  But TJ Warren says he will stay, and he was one of the brighter spots on the Cardiac DOA Pack.
On the women’s side, former Pack assistant Wes Moore was hired as the new HC.  Moore comes from UT Chattanooga with an impressive career winning percentage of .767 and 16 trips to the Big Dance, so it seems the ladies are in good hands.
Baseball:  Finally, a quick baseball update. I admit to not really following college baseball until CWS time, but now that we are “in-between” the two attention-grabbing sports, why not take a peek?
Happy to report that the Pack is fine, ranked #25 and coming off a 14-inning win over #30 Virginia Tech.  As a matter of fact, the ACC is fine with the following Top 30 teams:  UNC #1, Virginia #6, Florida State #7, Georgia Tech #16, and as stated already, the Wolfpack at #25 and the Hokies at #30. As for the Futures, we have Louisville at #14 and Notre Dame at #24.

ACC Fans… Are You Rooting For Syracuse and Louisville?

There is no secret here… Syracuse is joining the ACC later in 2013 and Louisville will be joining in 2014.  While the two went to bowls games this past season in football, both schools are known for having near-elite, if not elite, basketball programs.  It is not the least bit surprising that Syracuse and Louisville are part of this Final Four.  The question is whether YOU, the grizzled ACC fan raised on a rivalry with the Big East, will be rooting for Syracuse.

The Confidential will argue that you should  A Syracuse-Louisville matchup will look that much better for the 2013-2014 preseason.  Recruiting battles can be won by these two schools if they meet in the Championship game. Sure, these recruiting battles may be won anyway–but why not want them to have every edge.  You WANT these programs to be good.

The SEC is a great football conference because it is so very deep.  The Big East has been a great basketball conference because of its depth.  The ACC needs to put together that kind of basketball depth too.  The football should be deep, but it just is not there yet. Until the football teams rise up in out-of-conference games and the best programs stop getting upset, the ACC will have to ride its basketball teams.

Well, that starts this weekend.   Syracuse and Louisville may not have placed in the ACC standings in 2012-2013 (except here, of course), but they will be soon enough.  The better they do, the better for the ACC.

So you tell us… if you are not a fan of Syracuse or Louisville, are you going to be rooting for your future ACC brethren this weekend?

 

NCAA Tournament- Final Four Conference Breakdown

The tickets to Atlanta have been punched, and this time, only two major conferences remain. What’s left is a who’s who of the future of the ACC, an upstart underdog and a Michigan team that looks a lot like the Fab Five. Let’s see how they got there.

ACC

Tournament Teams (4)- Duke, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State

Remaining Tournament Teams (0)-

Verdict- No one was going to beat Louisville after what happened to Kevin Ware. No one. Not Duke, not the Miami Heat. No one. The raw emotion that Ware’s gruesome injury caused among his teammates, his coach and the crowd, were just too much to overcome for the Blue Devils. So while they went mostly cold in the second half, they can hang their heads high. After all, the season ended in a much better way than last year’s first-round flameout against Lehigh. An Elite Eight, while the standard for such a high-level program, is still an accomplishment. Coach K loses highly-productive seniors Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry this offseason, but he reloads next year with a class headed by #2 recruit Jabari Parker.

Big East

Tournament Teams (8)- Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette

Remaining Tournament Teams (2)- Louisville, Syracuse

Verdict-  We should really just merge this section with the  one for the ACC, but we won’t, because the Big East deserves one last send-off. It really is incredible that a conference that had such a bad first round has been able to rebound with such a great Final Four. It’s things like this that make the Tournament so incredible , and it’s what we’ll miss so much when basketball season ends. Syracuse looked impressive in a 55-39 sleeper against soon-to-be former conference rival Marquette, while Louisville cruised to an emotional win over soon-to-be conference rival Duke in the Elite Eight. Both teams have the potential to go all the way, and they proved this during this past round, but Louisville has the better matchup on paper this weekend. Since both remaining teams will be heading to Greensboro in the next few years, we’re not sure what type of foundation this leaves the “new” Big East…

 Big Ten

Tournament Teams (7)- Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois

Remaining Tournament Teams (1)-  Michigan

 Verdict- And one remains. The story all year has been about how great the Big Ten is, and here we are, with Michigan in the Final Four. Does this silence the critics? It’s hard to tell. The Wolverines have a lot to prove, but they look up to the challenge. Sunday’s game against Florida proved that they ‘re capable of handling elite teams and hanging with high-level programs. That’s a good sign. And it’s not to say that Michigan isn’t a high-level program too, but they haven’t experienced the same kind of success that the Gators have recently. That’s just a fact. Michigan is really quite an interesting team. They’re a talented team, but they’re not a surprise team like Wichita State. They’ve been a good team, but they weren’t expected to be here like Louisville. Can they finally bring a banner back to Ann Arbor? This time they won’t have to take it down…

 SEC

Tournament Teams (3) – Missouri, Ole Miss, Florida, Kentucky

Remaining Tournament Teams (0)-

Verdict- It’s hard to explain what happened to Florida. They just…couldn’t do it. They’re definitely as talented as Michigan. And Billy Donovan is a great coach. But sometimes it’s just not mean to be. Teams come out cold. They lose focus. They get in a hole early. And that’s what happened to Florida on Sunday. Unfortunately for them, it meant the end of their season. And unfortunately for the SEC, it meant the end of their tournament. While the conference may never be a hoops powerhouse, Kentucky once again becomes a team to watch in 2014. If they’re able to add Canadian phenom Andrew Wiggins, they just might cut down the nets again next year. Not bad for a team that couldn’t even win one game in the NIT.

It all ends in less than a week. It’s been an exciting basketball season, and it really is too bad that it’s almost over. While there haven’t been any truly exceptional teams this year, the parity seen has created one of the most unpredictable tournaments in years. Don’t be surprised if the Shockers win it all on Monday.

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