The Confidential

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Archive for the category “Conference Realignment”

05 Feb 2013
17 Comments

The ACC’s Lack of a Grant of Rights Needs to Be Addressed

The Confidential is on record as disagreeing with the notion that the Big XII’s grant of rights is impenetrable.  That being said, the Confidential also disagrees with the notion that a grant of rights is merely an exit fee with lipstick.  Depending on the legalese, a grant of rights should be a property transfer, made voluntarily and for consideration, by a school.  It should be much much stronger than an exit fee.  As such, the ACC needs to address its current perceived weakness relative to the Big XII by pursuing, successfully, a grant of rights of some length.

The response is always that a grant of rights is not wanted by the membership.  Who does not want it?  If UNC, Duke, and Virginia do not want the grant of rights, then that tells you everything you need to know about the viability of the ACC.  Maryland did not like the exit fee and now it is in litigation with the ACC.  If these three schools are not bound to each other, and willing to reduce that to paper, then the ACC is doomed.

If those three agreed, one would have to think that Syracuse, Wake Forest, BC, and North Carolina State would be on board immediately.  For the most part, these schools are at risk for being left out when the chairs reshuffle.  Pitt could dabble with the Big XII, but the Big 10 is not an option, so Pitt should also be in favor.  While Virginia Tech–like North Carolina State–is rumored to be attractive to the SEC, it is unclear that the SEC is actually interested in these schools are their first choice.  If UNC and UVa went the Big 10 route, then perhaps a marriage would make sense.  But as long as UVa and UNC are solidly ACC, it is difficult to believe that a separation would be desired by Va Tech and NC State.

So that leaves Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, and FSU.  All four duplicate SEC markets (Georgia, South Carolina, Florida).  The Big 10 is not at all likely for Clemson alone.  Georgia Tech, FSU and Miami are possible, but have many reasons that they do not fit the Big 10.  At least not in the same way that North Carolina and Virginia do–proximity and academics.  Plus, Georgia Tech is a clear also-ran in its market.

The Big XII complicates things.  All four schools could make more money in the Big XII.  Probably.  It is unclear why Clemson and Georgia Tech would make $26+M per year for the Big XII.  Again, both are secondary schools in their markets.  And it is not like South Carolina is a big market.  Miami and Florida State are a different story.  Together, they would give the Big XII a strong Eastern flank and presence throughout Florida.  It would likely be worth it for the Big XII to take these two (or perhaps all four).  So these are the four truly “problem” schools.  At the same time, if the ACC had a legitimate plan to increase overall revenue, it is unclear that the monetary difference would be worth the move.  Certainly not in the same sense as Maryland’s move to the Big 10 (a relative no-brainer for a mismanaged athletic department that needs money badly and had the one thing the Big 10 needs–a new market).  But joining the Big XII would mean a grant of rights.  So, while it is unlikely that the SEC would come calling for Florida State or Clemson, a grant of rights with the Big XII would take them out of consideration.  Of course, a grant of rights with the ACC does the same thing.  So, yeah, the hesitance is there.

So this is the point where the ACC and ESPN need to sit down and talk seriously.  Without a grant of rights, the ACC is at a real risk of dissolving or turning into something unrecognizable.  If that happens, the good ACC markets will be divided between the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC.  If 10 teams leave the ACC, but only two go to the SEC (i.e. 6 to the Big XII and 2 to the Big 10), that means that 80% of those schools will shift over to conferences with a significant Fox relationship.  If Fox throws more money at these conferences, ESPN will be marginalized further with the lucrative college sports market (and ad revenue generated).  If ESPN is cool with that, so be it.  But if ESPN is not, then they need to step up to the plate and agree to something to make the ACC stronger.   And, by stronger, the ACC needs something tangible to convince everyone in the ACC to be willing to sign a grant of rights.

The length does not matter.  A five-year grant of rights would be enough to at least quiet the realignment talk a little.  It is shorter than the Big XII’s current grant of rights, meaning that schools with an eye on other conferences will still have an edge.  But it would allow for a bit of a “cease fire” and chance for the ACC to rebrand itself with its new additions.

If anyone does not want a grant of rights for even a relative short period, then it is clear that the ACC is not long for this world.  It is what it is.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
01 Feb 2013
8 Comments

ACC Winter Meetings Update- Future ACC Basketball Tournament Sites

Finally, we have some news out of the ACC Winter Meetings! Swofford has been FAR too quiet the past few days despite all of the realignment rumors that have been picking up speed in this blog and others. Fortunately, as any ACC member knows, silence from John Swofford and the ACC can be a good thing. HE’S UP TO SOMETHING.

ESPN just posted an article regarding  ACC Basketball Tournament sites and the possibility of future tournaments in New York City. What do you guys think about that? While I’m an NC native and a current resident, I’ve never liked the tournament being in Greensboro. Sure, I love the history, and the location is pretty convenient for me, but it just hasn’t seemed like the right place for the past few years. The league’s membership has grown and changed and so has its footprint. The location of its tournament must reflect that.

I’ve recently been a proponent of the conference expanding to 16 teams. Once we got beyond 10, scheduling  just became too difficult and unwieldy. With 16 teams, you can split up into four pods and play 9 conference games in football. That means you can play your entire pod (3 games), another full pod (4 games) and half of a third pod (2 games) each year. Under that configuration, teams would be able to see each other at least once every other year and play a game at every team’s home at least once every four years. That’s way better than things are now. Under the new scheduling rotation and current divisional model, it may take UNC up to 8 years to play Wake Forest, a longtime rival who’s campus is just 80 miles down the road from Chapel Hill. So how would these pods look?

Tobacco Road                    Deep South                Mid-Atlantic              North

North Carolina                        Miami                              Virginia                           Boston College

NC State                                     Florida State                  Virginia Tech              Syracuse

Wake Forest                             Georgia Tech                 Pittsburgh                    Louisville

Duke                                            Clemson                           West Virginia              Notre Dame

You’ll notice that I have West Virginia and Notre Dame in there. I believe that WVU has always belonged in the ACC and that ND WILL be forced to join a conference at some point. Its conference of choice is the ACC. They have proven this by taking partial membership with us over the Big 12 and rejecting the B10 on numerous occasions. If superconferences were to be logically created (and they probably won’t be), then the Big 12 would be the next to fall (not the ACC) and WVU would be free to join without the grant of rights restriction (which could just as easily be broken if 5 or more Big 12 members wanted to leave).

All that to say, is that it is imperative that the league shake its “Tobacco Road” bias image. That is why I propose that the tournament develop a permanent rotation between four cities: Orlando (ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex- Deep South POD), Raleigh (PNC Arena- Tobacco Road POD), DC (Washington Wizards Arena- Mid-Atlantic POD), Brooklyn (Barclays Center- North POD). Not only do these cities provide a variety of entertainment, dining and housing options for fans, but they also come with a significant corporate population and satisfy the fan bases of each “pod.” No longer would the ACC tournament be seen as a place where the North Carolina schools are given an advantage. With a strict, set rotation, fans could expect their favorite team to have an unbiased leg-up on the competition once every four years. This would also ease with travel plans for fans and teams and leave the league to work on more important matters such as re-branding itself and marketing its product.

What do you think? While we haven’t heard much yet, the news out of Florida (the location of the ACC Winter Meetings) is encouraging. John Swofford seems to be more willing to stray from the past, as seen with the addition of Louisville, than ever before and this can only be good for the future of the conference.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Basketball, Conference News, Conference Realignment, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , , , ,
01 Feb 2013
15 Comments

A Doomsday Scenario For the ACC–MrSEC Provides One

In the blogosphere, Mr. SEC is not someone to throw stuff at the walls.  And it is not happening here.  But the blog does have an article about how the Big XII and SEC could work together to kill off the ACC as a viable 5th big conference.

Part of the premise is that if the Big XII took Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, and Georgia Tech (along with say Miami and ND as a partial member for football), it could engage the SEC with a scheduling agreement.  That way the Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia schools would continue playing each other, while Missouri-Kansas, Texas-A&M, etc., could be renewed.  The question that begs is who that helps?  The in-state rivalry games are going to happen.  The difference between calling them “out-of-conference” and “out-of-conference, but part of the scheduling agreement” is minimal.  That still only leaves a certain number of games for other opponents.  In the meantime, we’d never get to see Florida-Texas or LSU-Florida State, because Florida-FSU would be playing every year in the “alliance game.”

This is not to say that the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC could not figure out a number of ways to divide up the ACC.  The bottom line is that being Syracuse and Wake Forest right now is not fun.  Not much room for private schools in the top 4 conferences.  So a viable ACC is needed to sit at the adults table.  At least BC and Pitt occasionally show up elsewhere in some doomsday scenarios.

Really, unless the ACC moves to a Grant of Rights, the expansion issue is going to loom.  Otherwise, the Big XII has a relative strength advantage over the ACC.  And that makes the ACC a target.

What is your opinion?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , , ,
30 Jan 2013
2 Comments

What’s up?/ACC Winter Meetings

Hey guys, what’s up? I just wanted to introduce myself. I’m the new UNC correspondent for Atlantic Coast Confidential. Born in Raleigh, NC to two Virginia Tech grads, I was raised on Tobacco Road and loved every minute of it. Growing up, I actually had pretty much no loyalty to any team at all, cheering for UNC, NC State, Duke (I regret that) and even Wake since VT wasn’t in the ACC yet. But by the time they joined in 2004, I had decided to go to UNC and my loyalties were set for life. I still cheer for VT when they’re not playing Carolina, but when they do, it’s all Carolina all the time. That means that this Saturday’s upcoming game will be pretty fun. But I’m realistic. I know that a stronger ACC makes us all look good, so come tournament time I’m cheering for everybody except Duke (the Lehigh game was great). So while I love Carolina, I’ve always loved the ACC first and am extremely excited about sharing that passion with you.

Mr. Tar Heel

– Watch the ACC Spring Meetings over the next few days. What happens will pretty much determine whether we even need this blog next year, or if the long-rumored (by WVU fans) Armageddon is about to begin. My take- The whole idea is completely overblown. There’s way too much potential in a conference with the best media markets, over 33% of the US population, huge football brands (FSU, ND, Miami, Clemson, VT, etc.), legendary basketball programs (UNC, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville etc.), the best academics, most successful Olympic sports and unparalleled tradition for anything drastic to happen. Swofford will, as he always has, surprise everyone with something that will put the ACC on even monetary terms with the rest of the power conferences. ESPN has invested in the ACC way too much to see its product fall to Fox, or its other competitors. Plus, I just don’t see UNC forsaking its cultural roots for an all-around bad fit (Big 10), or FSU pulling a WVU and letting geographic sense fly out the window.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Conference Realignment, UNC Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , ,
26 Jan 2013
7 Comments

Friends with Benefits–the ACC and the Big XII?

The Confidential did not make this phrase up.

We can prove it.  Big XII Commissioner Bob Bowlsby recently said this:

“If anything, it’s the opposite,” Bowlsby said. “You can begin to get some advantages without taking on any of the disadvantages (of expansion). It’s one option that allows benefits. It’s kind of like friends with benefits.”

What was Bowlsby talking about?  Apparently, the Big XII is considering an alliance with 3 other conferences that would take expansion/realignment off the table, but allow conferences to use each other to maximize revenue.  The ACC is one of the conferences that the Big XII approached.  This issue involves scheduling, marketing, and perhaps even television contracts.

Look, while some folks are never going to think the ACC is at risk, the defection of Maryland is happening.  Of course, schools have left the ACC before.  Schools even left the SEC once upon a time.  But the money that the Big Ten is generating is simply too much for some institutions to turn their backs on.  So anything that can arguably add revenue to the ACC coffers is important.  If an alliance with the Big XII is part of it, so be it.

From a realignment standpoint, the idea of Florida State and others defecting to the Big XII is debatable.  It seems unlikely that the Seminoles would trade down academically, just to add a few million dollars.  But as long as that is on the table, there is just one more reason for ACC fans to be nervous.  At the same time, the Big XII has to worry about the Pac-12, which has few options for new members geographically.  So an alliance between the three conferences makes some sense.  If the Big XII is only considering adding teams to save itself from a future Pac-12 expansion, the fear of realignment is doing more harm than actual realignment.  As noted above, Bowlsby thinks that an alliance will reduce the pressure for expansion.

Really, the best case scenario would be an 8-10 year agreement between the 5 major conferences to let things play out for a while without more realignment.  The SEC and B1G can make more money by destroying other conferences, but nobody knows the cost of abandoning so many rivalries in the process.  Of course, it is hard to tell the predator to ignore the prey.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , ,
21 Jan 2013
2 Comments

Conference Realignment–Always Murky

On Friday, the Confidential discussed the different ways to decipher the words trickling out of Big XII headquarters regarding expansion.  Unfortunately, we get to play the game again.  ESPN interviewed the new athletic director from Georgia Tech, Mike Bobinski.  His comments regarding realignment were encouraging or discouraging, depending on how you read them.

First, let’s start with the money quote:

Bobinski smiled when asked if Georgia Tech might be joining the realignment frenzy.

“That’s the ultimate loaded question,” he said, before quickly stressing he thinks the ACC is an “unbelievable home for Georgia Tech. It’s the right fit in today’s world for us.”

The Yellow Jackets’ goals — both athletically and academically — are aligned with conference rivals such as North Carolina, Duke and Virginia, he added.

“That’s the company Georgia Tech belongs in,” Bobinski said. “It’s the right alignment in a lot of ways. I don’t have any inclination at this point in time that there’s any different home in our future. Our goal right now — us and the rest of the members of the ACC — is be as good as we can be in football and strengthen the revenue base in and around the conference, so there’s no temptation for folks to start to be picked off. We’re all-in for the ACC.”

ESPN chooses to see these comments as a positive, treating the comments as a “commitment to the ACC.”  One can kind of see the point there.

But not the folks over at Frank the Tank’s expansion-heavy blog.  The commentariat over there reads heavily between the lines–in a way that is not at all encouraging for ACC fans.  Indeed, why not just say–“NO, as my predecessor noted, Georgia Tech is not going anywhere!”  Also, the latest fetish among the commentariat is an 18-team Big 10 with 4 more ACC teams added to the mix.  So, the comment regarding UNC, Duke, and UVa is perceived as stating Georgia Tech’s preference for brethren if it joins the Big 10.  The Confidential further notes that Mr. Bobiniski has a lot of conditional language in his statements too.  So, as usual, the Frank the Tank folks have a good point too.

But before ordering the ACC tombstone, there is one final positive thought.  At least Mr. Bobinski concluded with a statement that Georgia Tech is “all-in for the ACC.”  If all the schools really could go “all-in” for the ACC, the future would be bright…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
17 Jan 2013
5 Comments

Don’t Think Expansion is Over Just Yet…

Look… this is just never going to end.  With the Big East dying a slow death, and with Maryland’s departure, it is clear that the ACC is everyone’s target for future expansion.  And now the Big XII commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, is going on record that it may not be d0ne expanding.  So, if you are an ACC fan, this is not the time to get over-confident.

To be sure, it may be that the Big XII will decide not to expand.  They have plenty of money per school and the good fortune of a true round-robin in conference play.  The only real drawback to 10 members is the absence of a conference title game.  And Bowlsby does have a problem with the NCAA stating that 12, rather than 10, is the magic number for a lucrative championship game.  And, frankly, he has a point.  Who really cares–if the Big XII wants to have a conference championship game, the NCAA might as well let them.  A pretty victim-less “crime.”

Returning to expansion, the usual names will always pop up–Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, etc.  It is hard to see other schools adding to the per-school payouts that the Big XII will be generating.  And it is even harder to see a Duke, North Carolina, or Virginia being amenable to the academic inferiority that the Big XII would bring.  Still, the ACC has to be a little nervous.

More positive from an ACC standpoint is this blurb from Bowlsby:

“That’s exactly one of the questions we’ll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said Wednesday. “Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They don’t bring programs that are of the ilk of the others in the Big Ten. The philosophy clearly is: ‘As members of the Big Ten we can grow them.’ “

Maybe the Big XII is wondering whether it can grow a program or two of its own.  If so, enter Cincinnati, BYU, and perhaps even UConn.  These have to be the best three overall schools that are not affiliated with the top 5 conferences.  And perhaps nobody should be sleeping on South Florida.  The Big XII could add some viewership with the Cincinnati and Tampa markets.  At the very least, it is possible for the Big XII to expand without trying to lure an ACC school.

In the meantime, all anyone can do is sit back and watch.  Unless, of course, the ACC wants to start discussing a Grant of Rights… but that is another topic for another day.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
19 Dec 2012
3 Comments

Proposed ACC Divisions

With the recent addition of Louisville to replace Maryland, the word is that Louisville will just slot into Maryland’s position in the divisions.  What are those divisions?  Who knows?  The non-geographical distribution makes them impossible to remember.  In any event, the Confidential recommends the following divisions:

Atlantic (Coastal rival)

Boston College (NC State)

Wake Forest (Duke)

Syracuse (North Carolina)

Virginia Tech (Virginia)

Louisville (Clemson)

Pittsburgh (Georgia Tech)

Miami (Florida State)

In other words, this would be geographical, except that Wake Forest and Miami slide north and Virginia stays with the South.

The real loser here is Wake Forest, who loses games with its North Carolina-based rivals.  But this is just reality here–Wake Forest is in the worst negotiating position of all teams in the NCAA.  Even Iowa State has its own network now.  You can make arguments for every ACC school to be in some other conference.  But not Wake Forest.  So, with apologies to the Demon Deacons, they just need to suck it up.  Life isn’t fair.  Besides, they also get to be in a division with two private schools.

Virginia gets to be in the South, playing North Carolina and Virginia Tech every year.

Miami gets to play Syracuse and Boston College–Northern exposure every year for those schools.  Florida State gets to be with all Southern-based schools.  Rare trips up north.  Miami and Florida State will play every year.

Were UConn and Cincinnati to ever join… this could be tweaked as follows:

Atlantic (Coastal rival)

Boston College (Wake Forest)

Cincinnati (NC State)

Syracuse (Duke)

UConn (North Carolina)

Virginia Tech (Virginia)

Louisville (Clemson)

Pittsburgh (Georgia Tech)

Miami (Florida State)

Under this scenario, private schools are matched up again.  The basketball is slanted heavily towards the Atlantic.  But any division with Duke and North Carolina is always going to be tough.

In the Confidential’s view, doing whatever one it can to make the divisions logical and easy to remember behooves its short-term and long-term interests.  No matter how hard you try to make divisions competitively balanced, it will not work out perfectly.  So at least use logic and common sense.

What do you think?  Do you prefer the current set-up?  Different idea?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
18 Dec 2012

Nice Article About ACC’s Financial Picture

The Confidential will be light for the next week or so.  Sorry in advance.  There will not be many posts.

Here is a link to check out though.  The ACC might not be able to compete with the Big 10, but it sure is looking good overall.  According to this article, anyway.   Give it a read and let us know what you think.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
13 Dec 2012
2 Comments

R.I.P. Big East

Well, the Confidential is all about the Atlantic Coast Conference.  That being said, there is no denying that the ACC has had a huge role in killing the Big East, taking Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Notre Dame in the past 10 years or so.  That’s a conference unto itself.  Thus, today’s news that the Big East will announce the exiting of more schools–the seven basketball-oriented, football-eschewing, Catholic schools–is met with some guilt.  That the Big East is dying is unfortunate.  Moving forward, however, the question is what happens next?

The general consensus is that the 7 Catholic schools will somehow, someway form a new conference.  It might be called the Big East.  It might be called something else.  Who knows?  The consensus also is that additional, similar schools will be invited.  If so, this is what the Confidential would like to see:

Catholic Basketball Conference–East: Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Georgetown, Villanova, Fordham

Catholic Basketball Conference–West: DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, St. Louis, Dayton, Xavier

If they wanted to get crazy, they could great a western flank, with Gonzaga, Loyolla Marymount, Santa Clara, and Portland, among others.  Either way, this would be the Catholic Basketball Conference–why not?

What about football?  What about football.  Yikes.  These are dark times for UConn, Cincinnati, USF, and Temple.  Newcomers UCF, SMU, Houston, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, and Navy are not too thrilled either.  While some of those schools may eventually get promoted to a top 5 conference, they cannot worry about that right now.

Without making a prediction, this is what the Confidential would like to see is two larger conferences form, centered around geography.  They can use the C-USA and MWC labels, as necessary.  It is important for the talent to be consolidated into two conferences so that there are more, better games.  This is the only way those schools will ever show any separation.  Remember, Boise State played a rather unimpressive schedule en route to national prominence.  It is up to these schools to schedule strong OOC and follow the same pattern.  If a small school in Boise, Idaho, can do it, any school can.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , ,

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