The Confidential

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Pitt 2013 Football Preview

Its time! The college football season will be here soon and we wont have to rely on MLB or ESPNs replays of games from last season to get our sports fix. It is, thank God, the FINAL year of the BCS and the year when we get to see the on the field effect of conference realignment. The ACC welcomes Pitt, Syracuse and Notre Dame into the conference, well most of Notre Dame. Lets take a look at the Pitt Panthers.

Just like last season, the last few years has been a roller coaster ride for the Panthers football team. Through all the coaching changes Paul Chryst is ready for his second year as head coach. Pitt finished last season 6-7 (3-4 in the Big East) and with a loss to Ole Miss in the BBVA Compass Bowl 38-17. The lows began with a loss to Youngstown St of the FCS 31-27 but they rebounded to beat Virginia Tech and then #19 Rutgers. There was also a couple of heartbreaking losses as well, a 1 point loss to Syracuse and a 3 overtime loss to the eventual national runner-up Notre Dame. Can Pitt steady the ride in 2013?

 

This will be the first time in four years that they will not be playing in a new system but they will be playing in a new conference. One of the glaring stats from last season that most be improved on is sacks allowed, they gave up 38 and were last in the Big East. Some bright spots from last season was their BE leading 10 turnovers and their 52.5% opponent TD rate in the red zone.

Pitt will have 13 returning starters (5 offense & 8 defense) but will be without QB Tino Sunseri, RB Ray Graham and RB Rushell Shell. Key returners are S Jason Hendricks (90 tackles 6 Int.), DT Aaron Donald (64 tackles 18.5 TFL 5.5 sacks), LB Todd Thomas (59 tackles) and WR Devin Street (73 Rec.). They are also bringing in a solid recruiting class that features OT Dorian Johnson, WR Tyler Boyd, QB TraVon Chapman and DT Tyrique Jarrett.

Finding reliable starters at QB and at RB will be crucial for the Panthers but they have alternatives. At QB will be ether redshirt freshman Chad Voytik or senior Tom Savage. With TraVon they should have 3 quality QB to chose from. Isaac Bennett appears to be poised as the starting RB after a solid preseason game. Malcolm Crocket and Desmond Brown would be his backups. This trio combined for only 41 carries in 2012. With the questions at QB and RB and with the loss of their #2 receiver, the offense looks to be the weakness of the team.

Tom Savage is 6-5 and has a strong arm but he hasn’t played since 2010 with Rutgers. At Rutgers he was a freshman All-American but struggled during his sophomore year. He is 192-368 for 2732 yds with 16 TD for his career. He led Rutgers to a 45-24 victory against UCF in the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl in his freshman year. After a falling out with the Rutgers coaching staff he transferred to Arizona but came to Pitt instead after a coaching change at Arizona. This will be his last year of eligibility. He was a 5 star recruit coming out of high school.

The defense is the clear strength of this team as they return 7 of their top 8 tacklers and return their top leaders in INT and sacks. Donald and Hendricks are hyped as preseason All-Conference selections.

Following a tough season opener against Florida St. the schedule could be set up to allow them to get their feet set under them during the first part of the year before ending with 5 tough games. The key to a successful 2013 for Pitt will be finding a QB and RB to step up and take control of the starting position. If this happens then an 8 win season is certainly possible but I will predict them to finish 7-5 (4-4) and in the mid pack of the ACC, which is certainly a good accomplishment in the tougher conference.

Here is a look at the Pitt 2013 football schedule;

Sept 2 Florida St              its hard to pick against FSU here.

Sept 14 New Mexico      should be the start of a winning streak.

Sept 21 @ Duke              the Pitt defense should be enough to get the W.

Sept 28 Virginia              playing at home gives the Panthers the edge.

Oct  12 @ Virginia Tech VT gets revenge from last season at home.

Oct  19 Old Dominion   Pitt will need to avoid a Youngstown St repeat.

Oct  26 @ Navy               A must win game for Pitt.

Nov  2 @ Georgia Tech  GT playing at home gives them the edge.

Nov 9 Notre Dame         ND will be favored.

Nov 16 N Carolina          Pitt has the home field advantage here.

Nov 23 @ Syracuse        A possible W and will be needed to reach 8 on the year

Nov 29 Miami                another crucial game for Pitt to get 8.

Ode to the Preseason Magazine

So it is now early August, and we are in a season that I have fully enjoyed for years…the Preseason Preview Magazine Season.

I know, this is a blog, on the World Wide Web, we don’t use books anymore.  Heck, there was even an article somewhere about the last big computer magazine going out of paper-and-ink recently; print is a dying medium, right?

Not yet.  Bookstores may come and go, but last I checked the magazine rack at Wal-Mart and my local grocery store still had plenty of offerings, most of which I care little for.  But around the end of June comes the appearance of periodicals devoted to football, like the first sign of a new season.

I am addicted to these mags.  Each offers a different perspective and more importantly, a different view of what is to come in the 2013-14 season.  So once a payday I usually pick one up, two if it has been a good week.  College and pro, though the NCAA issues interest me slightly more if only because there are so many teams and, of course, because I can get info about the ACC.

So here is a quick look at my favorites no particular order…

ACC Sports Journal, Fall Edition…website, ACCsports.com

David Glenn is the editor of what used to be called the Poop Sheet, and I am late to the party here as I just started reading it this year.  They do an excellent job covering “our” conference and this is what they are thinking this year:

Clemson will win the Atlantic and Miami the Coastal. Not going to break it down much more as I would like you to go out and buy this thing or order it online. But I will divulge the layout…this year there are 4 pages devoted to each ACC team, packed with the usual info: head coach with record, team results since 2003, the new schedule, and lineups. The articles are based on seven questions each team must answer in the new year, and there is even a look at the 2010 recruits for each team and how they are faring now. In addition to the 14 teams playing in the conference there is an identical Notre Dame section.  Louisville is not yet included as they have not yet escaped the American.

As a bonus, the Journal covers ACC basketball as well, though the articles are condensed since it is time for football. There’s a hoops recruiting section as well.  And on the last page is an article by David Teel of the Newport News Daily Press about the future of the ACC that is a fascinating read.

Sporting News College Football…website: Sportingnews.com

Until 2008 there was a magazine called Street and Smith’s that was my favorite for a long time.  Back then S and S merged with the Sporting News preseason mag and decided to keep the SN name, though I felt that Street and Smith’s had just as much name recognition and I do miss leafing through both of them this time of year.

The focus here is more national, though none of the “power conferences” get short shrift.  Alabama is their No. 1 (yawn) and Stanford comes in at two.  Clemson is ranked ninth followed immediately by Notre Dame and Louisville, in a sort of ACC/almost-ACC/future ACC trifecta. Each team gets one page of coverage but they pack in five-year results, projected starters, recruit ratings, the 2013 schedule, Fast Facts box (coach, coordinators, stadium, tix, etc), impact player and the main article which breaks the team down by Offense, Defense/Special Teams, and the Bottom Line.

Each of the power conferences gets a two page intro as well with such features as All-Conference picks by position, teams that are ascending/descending and of course, predicted order of finish.  Here again Clemson and Miami get the love as division winners.

So, SN offers a lot of ACC news in addition to a look at everybody else, and they really go beyond with a look at each FCS conference, NCAA Division 2 and 3 and an NAIA preview.  Plus they are published right down the road from me in Charlotte, NC, so you can’t go wrong.  Trust me.

Phil Steele’s 2013 College Football Preview…website: philsteele.com

Until a couple of seasons ago I would pass this one up, thinking this guy was just a tout who would regale me with thousands of reasons to call his hotline and NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!!  Not being a betting man, this interested me not at all.

I couldn’t have been more wrong.  While the magazine does list results against the spread, it is really an attempt to tell us what is going to happen before it happens.   Phil Steele is a guy who doesn’t want anyone telling him what team is best, but instead wants to decide based on his own mathematical formulas. He uses nine sets of power ratings he designed himself to determine his final rating, and if you look on page 326 (out of 352!) you will find an article detailing his accuracy. Although I disagree that having the best average over the last 15 years equals a 15-year winning streak as the article posits, Phil’s record is nonetheless very impressive.

Now I look eagerly for the appearance of this one.  Get this- every FBS school is given two pages in PSCFP. And in these two pages is a treasure trove of information, for every one of the schools, from Air Force to Wyoming and all points in between.

Two pages, you say? Is that all?  Hey, he uses very small print.  Here are some of the features crammed into the team pages:

Position Outlook divided into QBs, RBs, Receivers, O-Line, D-Line, LBs, DBs, Special Teams, and Coaches.  Then there’s Phil’s Forecast, which updates team history in some detail and ends with Phil’s prediction for 2013.

2013 Projected Starting Lineup – Packed with info on each player with lots of abbreviations so that pertinent stats are included

Also on Roster – The guys nobody else bothers to list

That’s just the first team page.  The facing one has the schedule with room for you to write in scores if you like, plus a little info about each matchup; returning starters and returning lettermen; head coach’s record broken down more ways than I can list here; stadium info; 2012 stat leaders; signees; last 5 bowl results with all-time bowl record; every score from the last five seasons and more.

This is truly THE College football preview.  If you are only going to buy one, buy this one. All it will cost you is 9.99.

So there you have it.  There are other good previews out there, Lindy’s and Athlon’s to name a couple, so you may have a different favorite.  But I strongly encourage you to treat yourself to at least one, whether you are a fellow ACC fan or just a football maniac.  You’ll be glad you did.

Conference Realignment- A New Division 4 Reality?

Let’s talk Division 4 football.

By now you’ve heard of it. It’s everywhere. We’ve even talked about it here. The “Power 5” conferences break away to form their own division within the NCAA structure, or even break away from the NCAA entirely (for football). But this isn’t about whether it’s a good idea, or a bad idea. It’s not about whether the players deserved to be paid, or deserve to earn more. It’s about the next step if it does happen.

Read more…

ACC Lacrosse and the 6th team

There is little doubt that the ACC is the elite conference in lacrosse, placing a current member in the championship game 12 times since 2000, so an automatic birth into the tournament isn’t a necessity but would be a nice luxury to have. With Maryland departure in 2014 they will need to find a 6th team to go along with Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse and Notre Dame but who that will be is anyone’s guess. There are several candidates within the ACC of who can fill this role with each bringing different arguments as to why they are the better choice. With lacrosse exploding at the high school level in Florida makes Florida St and Miami logical candidates. Massachusetts is a lacrosse hot bed and Boston College played in the ACC before going to the MCLA. A case could be made for NC State and Clemson as well but perhaps the front runner for the 6th spot is the ACC-to-be Louisville Cardinals with their thriving athletic program. Typically sports fans associate Louisville with basketball and football and not lacrosse, so why Louisville?

Read more…

Maryland vs Louisville: Is It Academics vs Athletics?

When Maryland leaves for the B1G in July 2014 the ACC will no doubt lose an excellent academic institution and a founding member. A lot has already been discussed on this topic but what will the ACC actually gain and lose when the University of Louisville comes in as their replacement? What are the real athletic and academic differences between the two schools?

Read more…

Where Have All the Good Guys Gone?

I’m going to be honest. I held off writing about the whole PJ Hairston thing because I didn’t want any of it to be true. As a (still) proud alumnus of The University of North Carolina, I’ve been absolutely disgusted at my school the past few years. I became a Tar Heel because I wanted to be associated with excellence AND honesty, not just one of the two. The PJ Hairston situation is the last thing I wanted to see. There’s not a good precedent. Other incidents that seemed isolated at first,  ballooned into full-fledged scandals. This one seems to be heading in that direction.

Read more…

Report CARD: Recruiting

Louisville Cardinals athletic logo

Louisville Cardinals athletic logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

July 1st brings in a new era for the ACC as Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame officially join the conference. It also is the dawning of a new conference, the American Athletic Conference. I hope Commissioner Aresco pardons Louisville fans for not greeting this day with applause and cheers. What we will relish is one final year with two old rivals in Cincinnati and Memphis.

Last week I took a look into the Louisville Cardinals future, their 2014 football recruiting class. Over the course of last week it has changed as the Cards received seven commitments in five days, it was truly a busy week. The week started with the news that Detrick Dukes switched his commitment to his home state Georgia Bulldogs but this bad news was short lived as the new commitments began to trickle in. Read more…

Examining the PJ Hairston Situation- Best-Case and Worst-Case Scenarios

By now, the case of North Carolina guard PJ Hairston has been well publicized. Hairston, the Tar Heel’s leading scorer and top returner from 2012-2013, was caught earlier this month driving without a license, in possession of marijuana and with a 9mm firearm and nine rounds of ammunition outside of his rental car in nearby Durham. That was probably enough to earn him a huge suspension from Coach Roy Williams. But it turns out that was only the beginning.

Read more…

Louisville 2014 Football Recruiting Update

With the Louisville Cardinals historical 2012-13 year coming to an end with a disappointing CWS performance its time to start looking ahead. Before we focus in on the 2013 football season lets jump ahead a bit. It’s still early in the 2014 recruiting process but the Cardinals are putting together one of their best classes ever. Louisville first ACC class brought in 15 commitments already, a number that is highly unusual for them. ESPN, Scout and Rivals are still evaluating the 2014 class and as the athletes compete in their senior season there will be many changes in the rankings. Even though its still early, lets take a look at some of the Cards top commits. Read more…

Rodon, Pack push Heels to CWS brink

Sunday in Omaha NC State at least partially avenged their ACC tournament loss to UNC as Carlos Rodon once again handcuffed the Heels.  The difference this time was that the bats showed up as well and the Wolfpack hammered the Heels 8-1.

Rodon was the star, pitching a complete game and allowing only five hits as State improved to 50-14, their first-ever 50-win season.  Brett Williams, Bryan Adametz and Logan Ratledge each had two hits of the Pack’s eleven for the game. UNC scored its run in the bottom of the ninth with the game well in hand.

With the loss, the Heels fall into the losers bracket and will face LSU at 3 pm Tuesday with the loser going home.  As an ACC loyalist, this correspondent will be rooting for the Heels, but has no problem with State fans who differ with this plan.  State also plays Tuesday, but will be on the diamond at 8 pm vs UCLA trying to avoid their first NCAA tournament loss this year and stay in the winner’s bracket.  It is still possible the Pack and Heels could collide again before this is over, albeit not in the title series.

Unfortunately future ACC school Louisville fell to Oregon State 11-4 today ending their CWS run.  Good season, though, Cardinals fans; looking forward to your being part of the family.

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