UPDATE: Our guest writer just pointed out that the Miami Herald reported the following:
The ACC says it likely will take the Big East’s 7 p.m. slot on ESPN’s Big Monday next season. The new Big East – including seven Big East defectors, Xavier, Creighton and Butler – is shifting to the new Fox Sports 1, a 24-hour-network that debuts in August, replacing Speed.
Once upon a time, Pitt’s football team was the sole source of disappointment. Year after year, the decent recruits at Pitt have failed to live up to the hype. They have more trips to Birmingham than the BCS. But now the basketball team is joining the football team in mediocrity. This year, Pitt was insulted (by some) to have received “only” an 8-seed, and then went out and lost by 18 to the 9th-seeded Wichita St. Shockers.
All you need to do is go here to read the comments from the Pitt fans. They seem to be losing some faith in Jamie Dixon. Of course, they should also recognize that Syracuse fans had lost faith in Jim Boeheim after 10 seasons too. And even in the 1990s, Syracuse fans questioned whether Boeheim could win a national title. For Dixon, he needs to just get the Panthers to a Final Four first.
But the 2012-2013 season was not about that. From a Big Dance standpoint, losing to Wichita State is not the end of the world. It is highly disappointing, however, to lose by 18. So it is understandable if Panthers fans are frustrated. Dixon is getting the recruits… like the football team, those recruits need to start meeting their potential.
The Confidential thinks that one particular NCAA Tournament change is in order. This one is going to be controversial, but the Confidential believes that the reigning national champion should get an automatic invite to the Big Dance, so long as they meet the minimum criteria of, say, 18 wins.
This year, Kentucky went 21-11 overall and 12-6 in conference, albeit in the admittedly weak SEC. For that, they were rewarded with a trip to the NIT. Really? Would it have been THAT awful to slap an 11 seed on the Wildcats? Give someone a chance to upset the reigning champion? This is a no-brainer to the Confidential. With 68 teams, many of whom are mediocre and/or only there based on “automatic” bids, there is plenty of room for one more automatic bid. The Earth will stay on its axis–just be a bit more fun. Let’s see someone dethrone the prior champ, regardless of how easy or hard it is to do.
The cons are obvious, but not without flaws.
Con #1. Only the best 68 teams should be in the tournament.
Bull. Crap. Bullcrap. Liberty is 15-20 and validly in the tournament. And that rule should not change either. If nobody from Liberty’s conference (probably should have looked that up) can beat Liberty in its tournament, nobody else deserves the spot. Might as well be Liberty. It’s what makes March madness an event. But if Liberty is OK, then why not Kentucky? Who is more likely to make a run? Let’s not pretend that this is exclusively about only the top teams participating.
Con #2. OK, if you don’t win your tournament, then you must be one of the best at-large teams.
Now we are really splitting hairs here aren’t we? To include Kentucky would be to exclude Boise State. Is everyone 100% sure that Kentucky is worse than Boise State. This is like deciding between two 6-6 football teams. Let’s give the nod to the team that will juice up the tournament the most. Moreover, while we all love the underdog story (at least until it reached the point where you feel weird picking Butler to lose and/or a 5 seed to win), we love watching the elite teams lose even more. Admit it… which interests you more… Lehigh winning or Duke losing? Most people would take the latter. It’s as much about schadenfreude as it is rooting for the underdog. C’mon, let’s see a Kentucky cheerleader cry!
Con #3. Why are we screwing over the midmajors?
Who is screwing over a midmajor? Virginia and Maryland were among the teams left out of the Big Dance. The NIT is full of major conference schools. More likely than not, allowing a national champion to enter the bracket would exclude a team that was around .500 in a major conference. This is essentially trading a .500 team that is interesting for a .500 team that is not. Let someone enjoy beating Kentucky rather than sigh after beating some other middle of the pack big conference mediocrity.
Con #4. You just like Kentucky, don’t you?
Heck no. The opposite. You cannot let hate cloud your judgment. This is about seeing Kentucky be both part of the Big Dance and losing. Let’s see who gets to take down the former Goliath. That is a lot more exciting than some other 12 seed. And it gives the tournament just that much more excitement.
Con #5. This Kentucky team looks nothing like last year’s team, so why bother?
Well, we are all just rooting for jerseys anyway. Does it matter than 5 guys left and were replaced with 5 new guys? In theory. But it is still Kentucky’s championship to lose until someone beats them. At least it could be. That would be neat.
Con #6. Who cares, how often could this possibly happen?
According to this article, only 5 times in the past 25 or so years. But three of those have been since 2008. This is a new trend. It will likely happen more and more as the NBA continues to draft kids with potential instead of men with a flaw here or there. And if it truly is are, what is the problem? If anything, rarity is a benefit to the change. After all, it would not be that much of a burden to make the switch.
Con #7. Did you see that Kentucky just lost to Robert Morris? There goes that theory.
Hardly. The fun is (a) having Kentucky rally around its championship and play better than they have all season; and (b) giving some other team the thrill of eliminating them. Every year, we see good teams “give up” at NIT time. It is perplexing, but the disappointment of not being in the Big Dance can lead to some surprises. So it does not matter than Kentucky lost. Except that those kids lost out on a chance to play more and develop character. Of course, it also shows how hard it is to play a true road game. For those who defend neutral site games, there is nothing like playing in a small, packed gym. Teams better than Kentucky might have wilted under that pressure.
Finally, this is NOT about this Kentucky team, but about the principle. Let the champion have an automatic bid.
What say you? Is there a better reason to include the prior year’s champ? Disagree vehemently? Let us know…
So we, the Wolfpack nation, were reduced to this: pulling for the Maryland Quitterpins vs the favored Virginia Cavaliers. To make matter worse, the Terps teased us, at times controlling the game before falling short by only four points. So that was that; no first-round bye in the Acc Tournament, instead a meeting with Virginia Tech on Thursday afternoon.
But how did we get to this point? Time for a (not very) nostalgic look back at the 2013 season…
It started with rampant optimism. Many prognosticators had NCSU winning the conference, with at least one preaseason magazine picking the Pack to make the Final Four. The first sign that this might be inacurate came on the sunny isle of Puerto Rico, where State came out flat and lost to Oklahoma State 76-56 in a rout that may not have been as close as the score indicated. While the Cowboys would prove better than expected, the Pack would not meet their lofty expectations at all.
Still, the ship seemed to be righted on January 12th when State dominated then-number-one Duke 84-76. Standing at 14-2 and 3-0 in conference play, the Pack looked like they could handle anybody.
At least until the following Wednesday, when the game that perhaps defined this maddening rollercoaster ride occured: the 51-50 loss at Maryland. That’s when we all had to admit that despite the great recruiting class, despite the preseason predictions, despite last season’s surprise Sweet 16 appearance, this was no Final Four candidate.
There would be other peaks and valleys this year, beating North Carolina in Raleigh, losing to Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, but the Pack slid slowly down the ratings from a preseason #6 to the current position of a team unranked but at least certain of an NCAA bid.
If force to give this team a letter grade based solely on the regular season, I would go B-. C+ if not for the split with both Duke and Carolina, B+ if not for the losses to Wake and Maryland, and to FSU when the bye was still ours to lose.
I am a bit disturbed as I check out State message boards around the net. Some are already howling for Mark Gottfried’s head. While much did go wrong this year, I urge patience. We are pretty much guaranteed a second straight trip to the Dance, and as all State fans know, once you get there, who knows? Our lack of depth is all that is holding us back at this point.
As for the upcoming ACC tournament, we open, as mentioned above, on Thursday vs Virginia Tech at 2 pm. We should expect to win that one. Then it will be Virginia on Friday, and I am smelling a Pack victory there as well, although it would be something of an upset. If so, Miami will likely be waiting in the semifinals, and that should be that. But if, and I cannot see it happening, we somehow stun the Canes, either Duke or Carolina will be waiting. I think Carolina; Duke tends to look ahead to the NCAAs and sometimes stumble in the conference tourney.
Anyway, the winner of State/Miami would then face the winner of Duke/UNC. Any matchup of these four teams will be a final for the ages. I think Miami vs UNC, and all bets are off.
Even though the rumors of the ACC’s demise have quieted down somewhat (which just goes to prove the absurdity of their existence to begin with), I want to continue with my planned series on conference realignment. So today I’m going to tackle the most often mentioned reason to join the Big 10. No, it’s not television money…it’s research money.
It’s true that the Big 10 is a great academic conference. But the benefits of its research organization, the CIC, are greatly overblown. Universities can, in fact, collaborate on research with anyone they want to. They can work together. They can raise funds together. They can do all of the things that the CIC offers without ever even stepping foot in the Midwest. And they do- ACC universities already do this with great success. For example, the University of North Carolina has become the nationally recognized leader in concussion research. They’re working on it on their own terms, with the schools that they want to. Yet, they’re not in the CIC. And Virginia Tech is pushing the boundaries of renewable energy. Their solar house has become a nationally recognized award winner, but they’re not members of the CIC either. It’s not the organization that innovates. And it’s not the amount of money that it has that changes the world. It’s the people, and ACC universities are home to some of the top research talent available.
But you might say that money DOES matter and that the CIC will provide this to prospective members like UVA and GT. Okay, so how do ACC schools stack up when comparing research dollars? A quick glance at The Center for Measuring University Performance’s “Top American Research Rankings” list, shows ACC schools like Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, NC State and Pittsburgh alongside Michigan and Wisconsin. That’s the Big Ten alongside the ACC- there’s virtually no difference. ACC schools benefit from their association with each other just like the Big Ten schools do. Research dollar rankings prove this.
And that’s without even touching academic rankings. The ACC far exceeds the Big Ten as a whole in the often mentioned US News and World Report findings. The ACC boasts 11 universities in the Top 60 (including Maryland), while the Big Ten only has 6. Even with Maryland gone, the ACC will have a remarkable 66.6% of its members in this top group, compared to the Big Ten’s 50%. Again, facts not bias.
Many Big Ten fans point to membership in the Association of American Universities. Since an impressive 11 of 12 Big Ten schools hold a spot in this organization, it’s no wonder that they cite this as evidence of their superiority. Who wouldn’t? Yet, while it’s true that the AAU boasts a truly elite group of universities, having an exclusive membership like a collegiate fraternity does not mean that its members are more academically advanced than their peers. Highly regarded universities such as Dartmouth (#10), Notre Dame (#17), Georgetown (#21), Wake Forest (#27) and Boston College (#31) do not hold membership in the AAU, but are all, rightfully so, considered to be among the top schools in the country (US News and World Report ranking in parentheses). Membership in the AAU is not a necessary part of, or even a precursor to academic success. It looks good to have a title beside a school’s name, but what the school accomplishes is much more important. ACC schools prove this everyday.
This article is by no means an outlet to demean the Big Ten, but to start a discussion. The Big Ten is an impressive collection of schools with great academic programs and a rich history- this can’t be denied. But it’s great for them, NOT us. We appreciate our history. We celebrate our success. And we’re proud of our top-notch academic programs. The facts speak for themselves.
So there it is. Another regular season in the books. As we head into the exciting tournament season, here is the final “regular season” weekly Top 12, with 5 precincts reporting:
#1 Duke, 4 first place votes, 59 pts.
#2 Louisville, 1 first place vote, 55 pts.
#3 Miami, 50 pts.
#4 Pittsburgh, 44 pts.
#5 Syracuse, 36 pts.
#6 North Carolina. 35 pts.
#7 Notre Dame, 32 pts.
#8 (tie) North Carolina State & Virginia, 24 pts.
#10 Maryland, 13 pts.
#11 Florida State, 12 pts.
#12 (tie) Georgia Tech & Boston College lemson, 3 pts.
Wake Forest and Clemson got votes in early polls. Only Virginia Tech failed to have ANYONE give them a top 12 vote at any point in the season. Good job firing Seth Greenberg.
How about Syracuse–ranked #4 in one poll and #9 in another. Virginia has a pretty good range too, from 7th to 10th. Notre Dame ranged from 5th to 8th. The remaining teams were not quite as variable.
Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…
This blog entry was contributed by a guest, who chooses to remain anonymous (for now). The Confidential greatly appreciates this guest’s opinion and welcomes others to submit guest entries–whether anonymous or not.
Yes, we have been told that football drives the bus. We get it! ACC football has a lot of questions to answer. But for the purpose of this singular guest blog entry, let us concentrate on what the ACC does historically well … basketball.
For the last 30 years, the ACC and Big East have essentially traded punches in their all-out pursuit of being the dominant college hoops conference in the land. Fittingly, I propose we begin our study with the memorable UNC-Georgetown final in 1982. The conferences clash for the first time. In Dean, MJ, Worthy, Perkins vs. John Thompson, Patrick and Sleepy Floyd. Great theater. And a three-decade long tug of war began with UNC claiming an initial victory.
Including ’82, in 31 seasons, there have been 124 Final Four spots up for grabs. And a team from the ACC or Big East claimed 49 of those berths. That’s a slick 40 percent and that does NOT include FF berths claimed by Louisville or Cincinnati in their pre-Big East days.
Now, the ACC’s immediate future won’t include Big East basketball heavies such as Georgetown, Marquette, UConn or Cincinnati, but it is safe to say when you combined the hoops heritages of (alphabetical order as not to offend anyone) Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NCSU, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Virginia under one roof, the word “juggernaut” can justifiably be tossed around.
And, one cannot with good conscious sneeze at the histories and accomplishments of schools like Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson or Florida State. Even Miami looks like a solid #2 seed this year, and Virginia Tech can beat anyone at Cassel Coliseum on a given night.
Oh. Maryland. Never mind. Another topic.
But there is no avoiding the fact that ACC hoops will be King. And it begs the question, what and where is the King’s throne?
My answer is that it should be on ESPN’s Big Monday at 7 p.m.
That’s right. Other than securing a football commitment from the Golden Domers, I think seizing the early slot on ESPN’s Big Monday should be near the top of the ACC’s Honey To Do List.
In the college hoops universe, Tuesday’s are Super, Wednesday’s are wonderful and Thursday’s are weekend-esque, but Monday’s are BIG. They are the proper and fitting platform for Kings.
Think about it.
I also realize there is a reluctance by ACC charter schools to accept anything that might be tainted Big East.
I get it. I graduated from a Big East school. I later worked in an ACC Athletic Department, so I am well aware of and greatly appreciate the ACC’s proud history. I just hope that growth opportunities — such as a unique and almost exclusive platform on Big Monday – are not simply bypassed out of conference spite (a.k.a. anti-Big East bias).
In some limited instances such as Big Monday, what was once terrific for the Big East can render even greater returns for the ACC.
It’s that time of year, again. Mediocre basketball teams all across the United States are making the case as to why their 10-loss season is superior to someone else’s 10-loss season. It was an annual ritual for Virginia Tech, until they decided to fire Seth Greenberg and avoid the whole hassle altogether. Expected disappointment is better than shocking disappointment, perhaps. In any event, with March Madness around the corner, there are plenty of ACC “locks”: Louisville, Duke, Miami, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Notre Dame. That is a TON of talent. So who is left on the proverbial “bubble,” right now?
ESPN believes that there are two, but only two, ACC teams on the bubble:
Virginia [20-10 (10-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 132] The Cavaliers are good. They just seem determined to prove otherwise. That is the best explanation I can come up with for Virginia’s past three games, which began with as promising an RPI victory as a bubble team can get in last week’s win over Duke. UVa looked great against the Blue Devils, not only controlling pace but playing some really deep, smart defense, and all of the positive efficiency trends we’ve seen from Virginia for so much of the season were on full display. And then, of course, the Cavs lost at Boston College, and followed that up with Thursday night’s loss at Florida State. That all but deletes whatever positive profile boost they got from the Duke win, and will keep them mired in the bubble mess even with a win over Maryland in the ACC regular-season closer Sunday.
Maryland [20-10 (8-9), RPI: 84, SOS: 121] As soon as Maryland fell to UNC at home Wednesday, the pronouncements started coming far and wide (OK, maybe just on Twitter): Maryland’s done! They’re going to the NIT! Loud noises! I wouldn’t discount them so fast. Sure, the Terps’ profile isn’t great and they were already on the wrong side of the bubble before Wednesday’s loss. But I’m not sure how much a loss to UNC hurts you at this point, and the bubble doesn’t really operate on opportunity cost. Is Maryland really in worse shape now? Either way, the Terps weren’t in a great spot before the night started, and now they almost certainly need to win at Virginia this weekend in what could end up being a do-or-die bubble showdown. It’s a race to the finish.
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports, unfortunately, has Virginia and Maryland on the wrong side of the bubble. Joe Lunardi of ESPN had Virginia in, but Maryland out. But then Virginia lost to Florida State on Thursday, apparently causing them to drop out.
Interestingly, Maryland plays Virginia on Sunday–a 6:00 pm start and a great way to finish the ACC regular season. What do you think? Is this essentially a “play-in” game?
Or do both teams need to each do serious damage in the ACC tournament to have a chance? Or are both doomed, absent winning an automatic bid?
Look, nobody knows what is going on with the rumors regarding teams leaving the ACC. Depending on where you choose to read, the ACC may be extremely strong right now or extremely vulnerable. The Confidential remains of the opinion that the absence of a grant of rights deal confirms that the Conference is at least somewhat vulnerable. But, assuming it is not, there is still the issue of Notre Dame’s partial membership. While the Confidential understands the lure of Connecticut and Cincinnati, and maybe even Temple, the Confidential would also like to make the case for Navy as the 16th school.
First, Navy could be considered in the same exact format as Notre Dame–a partial football schedule, with membership in the remaining sports. Perhaps Notre Dame and Navy could split one share of the revenue somehow unless/until full football membership was resolved.
Picture this for divisions, with cross-over above/below:
Atlantic: Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest
Coastal: Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, NC State
If ND and Navy could commit to the 7 division games, plus an 8th game between the two teams, this should make everyone happy and wealthier. ND would still have 4 more games to spread among its OOC foes, such as USC and various Big 10 schools. And the ACC Championship game could include Notre Dame.
Frankly, Navy has not been that bad in football anyway. Credit Paul Johnson for putting them back on the map. They are not a pushover.
Or, if ND/Navy are reluctant to go that high in terms of # of games, just keep them in parentheses… playing 5 games, plus the 6th game with each other.
Those divisions still work for hoops too.
Second, Navy is a fine academic institution. There is no downgrade there.
Third, Navy has a lacrosse team, which would give the ACC its 6th lacrosse-playing school.
Fourth, Navy is located in the very place vacated by Maryland. While Navy does not have the local following that Maryland does, it certainly has the national following.
Fifth, while its basketball team will always be undermanned, is that the worst thing for the conference? There is already plenty of competition to get to the Big Dance. And if Navy ever DID make it… they would have the whole country rooting for them. Needless to say, Navy has not done well outside of the David Robinson era anyway. So it’s no loss for the institution.
Finally, this keeps the UConn/Cincinnati debate alive should the ACC suffer additional losses. It is likely that future expansion will be in pairs. So adding those two teams together remains possible for backfill purposes.
What do you think? Why yes or no?
Frank the Tank has a new article up on the Catholic 7’s new television deal showing that basketball has more value in expansion than previously thought. The Confidential does not disagree. However, with Fox offering big money for a basketball-only product–and taking that product away from ESPN–it is just the latest example of ESPN’s greed causing it to lose profit. What this also shows is that ESPN made a killing off its undervalued contract with the Big East and is making another killing off of the ACC contract.
Think about it. If the Catholic 7 collectively have a fair market value of $3M apiece–that is $21M right there. TCU, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville have values of approximately $18M apiece–given that they were accepted into conferences that needed roughly that (more for TCU/Rutgers/WVU) to break even. So that is $108M. Figure ND is worth $6M for its non-football stuff… that is $135M ($21M + $108 + $6M). And then you still have UConn, USF, and Cincinnati. Even at $25M total for the three schools, that is $160M.
For that collection of schools, ESPN offered $11M per football school–or $99M/year. With the hoops schools getting a few million apiece, that is another $20M tops. So $120M. $40M less than what the schools ultimately proved to be worth individually. At the very least.
In the end, ESPN ends up with UConn, USF, Cincinnati, and fodder. So much for that extra value. By trying to profit as much as possible off the Big East, ESPN ended up losing most of it.
Sort of. Some of it went to the ACC, which is also under ESPN’s control.
For now.
Regardless of the veracity of any rumors, there are vultures circling the ACC to see IF it is a carcass.
So the interesting issue is whether ESPN will lose its ACC golden goose also. Viewed separately, all but a handful of ACC schools are desired by the Big XII, SEC, and Big 10. Viewed conservatively, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest are “stuck” in the ACC. An argument could be made that BC, Pitt, and Syracuse might have value to the Big XII as part of a NE wing with WVU. Interesting thought. But let’s assume not. If conferences making $20M/year (minimum) can find a revenue BOOST in adding the other 10 ACC schools, that must mean that those schools are worth at least $22M apiece or $220M. Assuming the remaining 4 are worth $11M apiece (50%), that is $264M total. Minimum. It is probably much higher.
Well, ESPN is paying an average of $240M per year. Less extra profit than with the Big East, but still a nice 10% premium above the bare minimum numbers discussed above.
The question this time is whether ESPN will allow the ACC–in its current form–to walk out the door. For every ACC school that leaves for somewhere other than the SEC, ESPN becomes less relevant and Fox becomes more relevant on the college sports scene. At some point, ESPN has to protect its place in the college sports game. It wants to start an SEC Network, not become the SEC Network. Right? But, given what has happened at many major corporations, one can never underestimate the stupidity of an organization. 10 years from now ESPN’s college programming might be down to the SEC and 10 different shows where reporters yell at each other about college sports. Or ESPN could end up overbidding on the Big XII or Big 10 because they put themselves into a desperate situation. Who knows?
But it does seem like ESPN could save itself a lot of trouble by locking up the ACC. That gives the network good football and great basketball. Programming from September to March. At the very least, something to keep it on pace with Fox.
Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Louisville fans… get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:
Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions
ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:
ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions
The Confidential 