The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

22 Nov 2012
2 Comments

ACC Football Predictions for Thanksgiving Weekend 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Not sure whether there should be analysis of Louisville or UConn…. ha ha ha.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 6-2, improving the overall record to a respectable 78-30.  On to the week 13 predictions:

Friday, November 23, 2012

Syracuse (6-5) @ Temple (4-6), 11:00 a.m.   You’ll have to stop your Black Friday shopping a bit early to catch this one.  Syracuse showed that its football is definitely on the upswing with a win on the road against Missouri, who was itself desperate for a win.  The Orange are banged up and this is Temple’s final game of the season.  An upset would not be shocking, but the Confidential will lean toward the ‘Cuse keeping the momentum going.  Prediction: Syracuse 33, Temple 21.

Saturday November 24, 2012

Georgia Tech (6-5) @ #3 Georgia (10-1), 12:00 p.m.  Maybe rivalry week allows teams to throw out the records.  But it is hard to really feel like Georgia Tech can win this game.  They have been playing a bit better lately.  Still, this one has a chance to get ugly.  Prediction: Georgia 30, Georgia Tech 17.

Virginia (4-7) @ Virginia Tech (5-6), 12:00 p.m.  As much as the Hokies have struggled all year, they are one win away from a bowl.  Virginia is an enigma still–no idea which version of the team will show up from week-to-week.  The Hokies have home field advantage, which has to be worth something.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 17.

#21 Rutgers (9-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-6), 12:00 p.m.  This has been a great week for Rutgers and a 10th win would just be the icing on the cake.  Pitt must win to have a chance at a bowl.  No matter what happens, Rutgers gets to play Louisville for the BCS bowl berth next week, so perhaps the Scarlet Knights will come out flat.  Upset special here.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Rutgers 20.

Miami (6-5) @ Duke (6-5), 12:30 p.m.  The Blue Devils have been coasting.  Miami has been another hard team to figure out.  With the Hurricanes pulling the plug on the post-season, it will be interesting to see whether they show up.  If Al Golden can get them motivated, Miami should win.  For Duke, this game presents the opportunity to regain some much needed momentum.  Prediction: Miami 31 , Duke 28.

Maryland (4-7) @ North Carolina (7-4), 3:00 p.m.  The only thing more surprising than Maryland leaving the ACC is the lack of anyone really caring.  Somewhat odd, really.  The Terps should have rivalries after all these years, but seemingly do not.  For Randy Edsall, a win here would be a great way to celebrate the offseason.  For the Tar Heels, bowl ineligibility means that this is their last chance to play football for several months.  Prediction: North Carolina 30, Maryland 10.

Boston College (2-9) @ North Carolina State (6-5), 3:00 p.m.  Well, another version of the Tom O’Brien Bowl.  Give credit to Boston College, they have played tough two weeks in a row.  A coaching change is inevitable, but the team has not quit at all.  An upset to send the coaching staff off would be a great way to finish the season.  The Wolfpack could really use another win though.  If they can’t beat BC…. well, do you really deserve a bowl?  Prediction: North Carolina State 24, Boston College 20.

Vanderbilt (7-4) @ Wake Forest (5-6), 3:30 p.m.  The Demon Deacons are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  Vanderbilt has its bowl game locked up.  Another reason for Vandy to be comfortable is that they are coming off the high of beating Tennessee.  Badly.  At the same time, Wake Forest has been as unimpressive as possible in getting to 5 wins.  It’s just hard to envision Wake pulling this one out.  Prediction: Vanderbilt 24, Wake Forest 17.

#6 Florida (10-1) @ #10 Florida State (10-1), 3:30 p.m.  The game of the week–two top 10 teams battling to see who gets to 10-1.  Florida has now been impressive in his recent cupcake wins.  Florida State has been only slightly better.  Neither team is peaking right now.  If the Seminoles want to be considered “back,” this is a game that they have to win.  In a pure homerism pick, the Confidential thinks it will happen.  Prediction: Florida State 28, Florida 21.

#13 South Carolina (9-2) @ #12 Clemson (10-1), 7:00 p.m.  The ACC regular season finale ends with a bang, as Clemson looks to avenge its disappointing loss to the Gamecocks last year.  This Clemson team has been scoring at will of late.  Unfortunately, last week the Tigers allowed North Carolina State to pretty much do the same thing.  South Carolina has to be licking its chops.  Homerism prevails again here.  Prediction: Clemson 35, South Carolina 24.

Idle: None

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
21 Nov 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 12

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 12 version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Notre Dame (11-0): The Fighting Irish shutout Wake Forest to draw within one game of the national title.  Oh, and Matt Barkley is injured now.
  2. Ohio State (11-0).  The Buckeyes took care of Wisconsin, which is a pretty good football team for the Big 10.  Nicely done.
  3. Alabama (10-1): Alabama beat Western Carolina.  Or West Carolina.  Or something.  Good grief.  Up next?  The Iron Bowl.
  4. Florida State (10-1):  The Seminoles demolished Maryland, who promptly quit the ACC.  Perhaps Western Carolina is looking for a new home?
  5. Florida (10-1): Florida did better against Jacksonville State than it did against Louisiana-Lafayette.  Huge game against the Seminoles looms.
  6. Oregon (10-1): The Ducks are good at putting up 50 points on inferior defenses (and USC).  Stanford exposed them.
  7. Kansas State (10-1): The Wildcats were cruising, until Baylor stopped them.  Still a great season no matter what happens in two weeks against Texas.
  8. Clemson (10-1): The Tigers have quite an offense this year.  We’ll see how they fair against the South Carolina defense.
  9. Georgia (10-1): Georgia beat up on Georgia Southern.  Another exciting SEC game last week.  Georgia Tech should provide slightly more resistance.
  10. Oklahoma (8-2): The Sooners eked by West Virginia to claim the final spot in the top 10.  Up next is rival Oklahoma State.
  11. Texas A&M (9-2).
  12. LSU (9-2).
  13. South Carolina (9-2).
  14. Nebraska (9-2).
  15. Louisville (9-1).
  16. Oregon State (8-2).
  17. Stanford (9-2).
  18. Michigan (8-3).
  19. Texas (8-2).
  20. UCLA (9-2).
  21. Oklahoma State (7-3).
  22. Rutgers (9-1).
  23. Boise State (9-2).
  24. Northern Illinois (10-1).
  25. Utah State (9-2).

* * *

121.  Illinois (2-9).  The Illini lost the pillow fight with Purdue.  Even Northern Illinois is ranked!

122. Washington State (2-9).  The Cougars were blown out by Arizona State.  Tough debut year for head coach Mike Leach.

123. Kansas (1-10).  Kansas was demolished by Iowa State, losing some momentum.  Well, as much momentum as a team can get with close losses.

124. Colorado (1-10).  The Buffaloes lost by 35 to somebody.  Sadly, this is a defense that WOULD benefit from having Greg Robinson.  Wow.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
19 Nov 2012

ACC Football Rankings: November 19, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of November 19, 2012:

1.  Florida State (10-1)–The Seminoles did not destroy Maryland, but beat them convincingly enough, 41-14.  Hard not to be giddy about the upcoming contest against the Gators.

2. Clemson (10-1)–Clemson gave up 48 points.  And won.  You get the feeling that the Tigers could give up 70 points to West Virginia again and actually win.  Huge game against South Carolina this week.

3. North Carolina (7-4)–Duke should be here, but they seem to have gotten fat and happy after beating the Tar Heels to become bowl eligible.  Meanwhile, North Carolina keeps on winning.

4. Georgia Tech (6-5)–The Yellow Jackets have gone from losing to a directional Tennessee college to the ACC Championship Game.  Unless they pull a huge upset against Georgia, they’ll do so with a 6-6 record.

5. Syracuse (6-5)–An argument could me made that Syracuse is #3 here.  They played USC close, and have only lost to bowl eligible schools (Northwestern, Rutgers, Cincy, and Minnesota).  Meanwhile, they beat Mizzou on the road and are the only team to have beaten Louisville.  So much for being basketball-only.

6. Duke (6-5)–The Blue Devils are coasting to their bowl.  Not finishing strong at all.

7. Miami (6-5)–At 6-5, the Hurricanes are bowl eligible, but wisely foregoing the post-season while the NCAA continues how hard to come down on them.  Ohio State wishes they had that level of foresight.

8. North Carolina State (6-5)–North Carolina State moved the ball against Clemson, but allowed 60+ points.  Still, looking at a bowl after the Boston College game.

9. Wake Forest (5-6)–The Demon Deacons have to beat 7-4 Vanderbilt to get to a bowl.  Not looking good.

10. Virginia Tech (5-6)–The Hokies can still get to a bowl if they can beat rival Virginia.  The performance against Boston College was not exactly a confidence builder.

11. Pittsburgh (4-6)—The Panthers still could get to a bowl.  The Big East refs may prefer that Pitt beat Rutgers too.

12. Virginia (4-7)–Virginia had a chance to make this week a game for a bowl… but fell short against rival North Carolina.  Anything can happen in this week’s game against the Hokies.

13. Maryland (4-7)–At 4-7, Maryland has still done better than expected.  Not sure how many 4 win seasons they will have in the Big Ten though.

14. Boston College (2-9)–At 2-9, Boston College fans are more interested in the coaching search than this week’s game.  BTW, they are playing North Carolina State.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Nov 2012
9 Comments

Maryland is Leaving–What it Means

Unless you were living under a rock today, you heard the news that Maryland is leaving the ACC for the Big 10.  Here is the Confidential’s latest take:

1.  Congratulations to the Big 10.

The Big 10 now has 14 teams (assuming the Rutgers rumors are accurate).  Without a doubt, the Big 10 will use these geographical additions to make its universities the wealthiest in the NCAA on a TV revenue basis.  To read Frank the Tank’s commentariat, however, one would think that THIS is the goal of all University athletic programs.  So what if Notre Dame or Alabama win the national title in football, the Big 10 schools get $30M/year?  Revenue has become a statistic not too unlike home runs in baseball or touchdowns in football.  It is a new way of keeping score.  And in this new way of keeping score, the Big 10 will dominate.

However, this new way of keeping score is misdirected.  Nobody cares that Minnesota brings in more money than Florida.  People care that Florida had two national championships in basketball and one in football during the past decade.  The counter-argument, of course, is that lacking money prevents a school from being competitive.  It is not lack of money that keeps Indiana out of the Rose Bowl and Northwestern out of March Madness.  It is not poverty that keeps Ole Miss from going to Sugar Bowls and Auburn from Final Fours.  At the very least, it is not a lack of TV revenue.  A terrible TV contract did not keep UConn from winning national titles.  A terrible TV contract did not keep Boise State from being relevant in football.  Having less money than Illinois is not why Florida State has fallen off the map (and is also irrelevant to how they got back on).  Money only goes so far in making your program interesting on the field.  So, while Maryland will now be able to spend spend spend, it will not alone make the Terps on-court, on-field product any better.

And the correlation is not as direct as one thinks.  After all, the TV revenue is nice, but Ohio State will always have more money.  Michigan will always have more money.  The football elite is elite for a reason.  Having more money than Memphis and Temple is nice, but that does not get you to a nice bowl when you go 2-7 in conference play.

2. Maryland and Rutgers, Part II

Maryland and Rutgers just made decisions that allow them to leapfrog their neighbors in revenue.  And, notwithstanding the caveats above, these schools certainly could use the influx of cash to become better.  More likely, however, is that a kid in New Jersey considering Rutgers now has an even better reason to consider Michigan.  Rutgers and Maryland will receive checks, but a part of those checks is the reality that the elite teams in the Big 10 now have a better chance to take kids from the mid-Atlantic.  Meanwhile, those same kids in that region could still go to Virginia to play a much greater percentage of games within driving distance.  And so on.

3. The ACC’s Future.

As the Big East is proving, it is hard to kill a conference.  But the ACC’s future as a legitimate conference depends on making sound moves in the near future.  The Confidential remains adamant that it be the football schools, rather than the basketball schools, that “get to decide” this next entrant.  The basketball schools are not losing much with Maryland.  This is an opportunity to add the Louisville football program, Charlie Strong, and a nice Southern compliment to Georgia Tech, Clemson, etc.  But, as also noted previously, if Florida State wants Wofford, Swofford needs to go for it.  The basketball schools will be far more relevant if they can maintain the ACC, rather than push the football schools out the door.

As for the football schools, they need to give serious pause before jumping ship.  The Big 10 just took two middling football programs with the confidence that their markets and the injection of revenue will make them stronger football programs.  The same thing is just as likely with Pitt, Syracuse, and whoever team 14 becomes.  The revenue jump for Maryland will not be that much different than the revenue jump from the Big East to the ACC.  If money is so important, then it is just as important for the new additions to the ACC.  Meanwhile, Pitt just landed a top 25 recruit.  Syracuse just beat Missouri on the road to become bowl eligible.  And if the football schools demand Louisville and get it, now you are looking at another top 25 team with a great coach joining the mix.  Not so sure that losing Maryland matters at all.  And football may be on the upswing with these additions.

Oh, and Louisville’s basketball is not too shabby either.  Win/win.

4.  Maryland Leaving Does Not Move the SB Nation Needle Too Much Over the Weekend

As of Sunday, the Confidential could not help but note the lack of discussion on the ACC’s SB Nation representatives until today.  This news was very hot as of Saturday, but only Cardiac Hill (Pitt), TNIIAM (Syracuse), and BC Interruption (Boston College) were really discussing it.  Pretty shocking really.

5.  One More Thing

If Maryland’s donors, such as Mr. Under Armour, are willing to pay towards the exit fee (whatever it is), where were they when Maryland was allegedly in financial dire straits?

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
18 Nov 2012
6 Comments

It’s Time for Congress to Act: Tax NCAA Sports Revenue

Things have gotten a bit crazy in college sports.  The Confidential understands Utah, TCU, and Boise State changing conferences to get a seat at the table.  The Confidential understands West Virginia, Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt, Colorado, and Nebraska being so sufficiently worried about the future of their conference (at those points in time) to make a move.  The Confidential does not understand Texas A&M and Missouri giving up on the Big XII to go to the SEC, but apparently it was frustration with Texas more than $$$.  But Maryland’s defection to the B1G will show that College Athletics is so ridiculously money-focused (rather than focused on anything non-monetary) that Congress needs to remove the tax-exempt status of Universities.  This is just getting out-of-hand.

The B1G wants Maryland for money, not because it wants a middling basketball program and downtrodden football program.  Maryland wants the B1G for the money, not because it does not have a seat at the table.  Maryland has had a seat at the table for its recent existence–it just has not done much with its seat at that table.  And nobody was threatening to take it away.

Fans of the B1G who care about money first are happy.  Fans of the B1G who care about football or basketball are “meh” at best.  Fans of Maryland who want to see their football and basketball teams succeed are “meh.”  Fans of Maryland who care about money first are happy.  A handful of fans borrow Florida State’s anti-Carolina paranoia, but this is a money move.

Nay, this is ONLY about $$$.

The money in college sports has gotten too out-of-hand for anyone to control it.  How can Maryland’s leadership turn down an extra $10M/year?

The time has come for Congress to step in and give the Universities a choice: go back to being at least somewhat amateur or expect to be taxed.  If the NCAA schools want to equally distribute money and access, then they can continue to operate as a tax-exempt organization.  If they want to set up many levels of tiers, with an increasingly smaller collection of “haves” than “have nots,” then welcome to the business world.

Is it fair to penalize Ohio State and Texas for generating so much revenue?  No.  But it is fair to penalize them for pretending to be a tax-exempt organization while doing so.  You want to get paid like the pros, start paying taxes like the pros.  If you want to make decisions based on how quickly they can get you from $27M to $30M/year, expect to be treated like a business that thinks the same way.

There are many who are too glad to be “haves” to care about this.  But the time will come when that will change too.  Sooner or later, Michigan and Ohio State will begin to resent paying a fair share to Purdue and Minnesota.  Florida will get tired of paying Mississippi.  Washington State and Iowa State?  And then it will get more focused yet–as the basketball schools get cast aside because the money is not there… see ya Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, Indiana.  When you have a system with “haves” and “have nots,” the inevitable course of action is that the “haves” become smaller.

We are about to go from 6 conferences of “haves” to 5 conferences of “haves” to 4 conferences of “haves.”  If Texas leaves the Big XII for a sweetheart deal… how long until there are 3 conferences of “haves.”

None of this sounds like amateurism or true academia.  It sounds like business.

Which is fine, of course.  But prepare to be taxed.

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment and tagged ,
17 Nov 2012
6 Comments

If Maryland Leaves… the ACC NEEDS to Placate Florida State!

The Atlantic Coast Conference leadership must walk into Florida State’s athletic department and ask them who the ACC should add.  If Florida State says “Louisville,” then the ACC needs to go for it.  If Florida State says “Boise State,” then the ACC needs to do it.  If Florida State says “Gardner-Webb,” then the ACC needs to do it.  If Florida State says “Betty White and 70 other 70-year olds,” only then should the ACC pause for a moment before agreeing.

You see… this next move MUST… repeat…. MUST be about football.  The conference needs to do whatever is necessary to keep Florida State happy.  Nobody else is walking out the door if Florida State does not.  Keep Florida State happy and the conference is safe.

Sure, UConn has the coastal location and basketball pedigree.  But they are not a football draw.  And, frankly, Louisville and Rick Pitino are every bit the basketball program that UConn is in the post-Calhoun era.  The ACC should have taken West Virginia along with Pitt and Syracuse.  That would have left the spot for Notre Dame and given the league a football power (WVU), a basketball power (Syracuse), and a little of both and the glue between them (Pitt).

If the ACC thumbs its nose at Florida State again, it might as well start writing its obituary.  Maybe the ACC will survive in the same way that the Big East survives to this day.  But it will never be the same.

ACC… please keep Florida State happy!

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , ,
17 Nov 2012

Maryland’s Turn to Hike the Skirt

After several days of rumors, it appears that there is actually some truth to this–Maryland may be leaving the ACC for the Big 10.  ESPN is reporting that Maryland and the Big 10 are in “serious talks.”

This stuff just does not end.

Posted by acaffrey in Uncategorized and tagged ,
17 Nov 2012

The Confidential’s College Basketball Top 25 & Bottom 5: Week 1

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Basketball, as well as the Bottom 4 major conference teams.  Here is the Week 1 version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Duke (2-0): The Blue Devils beat Kentucky.  Who has beaten a better team yet this year?
  2. Syracuse (1-0): The Orange have beaten San Diego State in San Diego.  Aircraft carrier or not, that’s worthy of #2.
  3. Indiana (2-0):  The Hoosiers have not been tested yet, but they will be soon enough.
  4. Louisville (2-0).  These are good times in Louisville, with both major teams ranked.  May be outgrowing the Big East.
  5. Michigan (3-0): It’s hard to be fully sold on the Wolverines, but they are beating their cupcakes.  Better than losing to them.
  6. Gonzaga (2-0): Gonzaga obliterated a good West Virginia team.  That gets them higher in the Confidential’s eyes than in the polls.
  7. Connecticut (3-0):  This will not last.  But the Huskies have beaten MSU and Wake Forest.  Can anyone top that?
  8. Michigan State (1-1): Tom Izzo is a favorite of the Confidential.  Who else has the courage to open a season with UConn and Kansas?
  9. Florida (2-0): The Gators have already beaten a tough Wisconsin team.  Nice for the strength of schedule.
  10. Kansas (2-1): Losing to MSU by 3 is more impressive than beating Southwest State A&M or any other cupcake.  Kansas will be there at season’s end.
  11. Kentucky (2-1).
  12. Arizona (2-0).
  13. North Carolina (2-0).  Note: At time of publication, the Tar Heels were leading Long Beach State by one at halftime.
  14. Missouri (2-0).
  15. North Carolina State (3-0).
  16. UNLV (1-0).
  17. Ohio State (1-0).
  18. Baylor (3-1).
  19. UCLA (3-0).
  20. Wichita State (1-0).
  21. Notre Dame (2-0).
  22. Wisconsin (1-1).
  23. Creighton (2-0).
  24. San Diego State (1-1).
  25. Alabama (4-0).

* * *

300. Purdue (1-3).  The Confidential understands that the Boilermakers have played some tough games already.  But three losses in mid-November is three losses.

301.  Georgia (1-2).  The Bulldogs are having a great football year.  Not so much on the hardcourt though.

302.  Mississippi State (1-1).  Losing to Troy is not a great way to start the season.  So it goes.

303.  Washington (1-1).  The Huskies lost to Albany.  The Great Danes traveled 3,000 miles and won.  Not good.

304.  Rutgers (2-1).  The Scarlet Knights have two wins.  But they lost to the St. Pete’s Peacocks.

These rankings are early and will certainly shake up as the season progresses.  Still, if you feel like debating, share your comments…

Posted by acaffrey in Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
15 Nov 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 12

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential struggled to a 4-4 record, making the overall record to a less-respectable 72-28.  On to the week 12 predictions:

Thursday November 15, 2012

North Carolina (6-4) @ Virginia (4-6), 7:30 p.m.  Don’t look now, but Virginia is surging toward a possible bowl game.  After beating bowl-eligible North Carolina State and potentially bowl-eligible Miami, it remains a possibility.  North Carolina just gave up 68 points to Georgia Tech.  Football, not basketball.  Unreal.  The defense will be better this week.  Still, the home team has more to play for.  Prediction: Virginia 31, North Carolina 28.

Saturday November 3, 2012

#10 Florida State (9-1) at Maryland (4-6), 12:00 p.m.  Maryland is a feel-good story this year.  But they are playing with a 5th string QB.  Florida State simply cannot lose this game and be taken seriously as “back.”  Sure, the temptation will be to look ahead to the huge rivalry game with equally impressive Florida.  But these are the games that elite teams win in the first half.  Prediction: Florida State 38, Maryland 6.

Virginia Tech (4-6) @ Boston College (2-8), 12:30 p.m.  As much as Virginia Tech has struggled this year, they still have a chance at a bowl game.  It would be cool if Virginia Tech and Virginia are both 5-6 heading into the rivalry game.  It’s hard to see Boston College stopping the Hokies from being in that position. Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 10.

South Florida (3-6) @ Miami (5-5), 3:00 p.m.  The Bulls have struggled with BJ Daniels.  It is hard to see them getting better now that he is lost for the season.  Meanwhile, Miami remains a complete enigma.  A win would be expected here, a loss would not be the least bit surprising either.  But the absence of Daniels and the Hurricanes being at home justify the prediction here.  Prediction: Miami 31 , South Florida 24.

North Carolina State (6-4) @ #11 Clemson (9-1), 3:30 p.m.  The Wolfpack have already ruined Florida State’s national title aspirations; why not ruin Clemson’s BCS bowl hopes too?  Clemson cannot be looking ahead to its rivalry game against South Carolina either.  Much like the Seminoles, the Tigers have to prove that they are elite by avoiding upsets–like last year.  Clemson is rolling and at home.  Prediction: Clemson 35, North Carolina State 20.

Duke (6-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-5), 3:30 p.m.  Who would have thought that this game would have Championship Game implications?  If Duke wins, they will go to the ACC Championship Game.  If Georgia Tech wins, they are still in the hunt for the same opportunity.  Duke has not been a very good road team this year.  Georgia Tech seems to be turning things around.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 42, Duke 31.

Wake Forest (5-5) @ #3 Notre Dame (10-0), 3:30 p.m.  The Fighting Irish have been coasting to their game with USC.  Frankly, if they do not start playing better, they will lose that game.  Brian Kelly will have to get his team motivated for this home game against the Demon Deacons.  Nothing about Wake Forest’s season suggest that they can win this game.  However, teams seem to rise to the occasion when they travel to South Bend.  Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Wake Forest 16.

Syracuse (5-5) @ Missouri (5-5), 7:30 p.m.  The Orange scheduling is just absurd.  Three of the four OOC games were against bowl-eligible FBS teams.  The fourth was against an FCS team, Stony Brook, that is 9-2.  And now they play at Missouri, who is desperate for the win to get to bowl-eligibility.  The Tigers are healthy now too.  Syracuse has struggled on the road and has a more-winnable game looming against Temple next week.  The Confidential is pulling for the Orange, but skeptical.  Prediction: Missouri 28, Syracuse 24.

Idle: Pittsburgh.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 11

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 11 version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Oregon (10-0): The Ducks had no trouble dealing with Cal.  And Alabama’s loss opened up the #1 spot.
  2. Notre Dame (10-0): The Fighting Irish edged Boston College.  Up next is mediocre Wake Forest.  Not the week to be looking ahead to USC.
  3. Kansas State (10-0):  The Wildcats got by TCU, albeit without the offensive fireworks.  Up next is Baylor.
  4. Ohio State (10-0).  The Buckeyes had a week off to rest.  This week they travel to surging Wisconsin.
  5. Alabama (9-1): Alabama lost to Texas A&M to drop out of the top spot.  Still in prime position for a BCS berth.
  6. Georgia (9-1): Georgia destroyed a desperate Auburn team.  That justifies the leapfrog over the Seminoles.
  7. Florida State (9-1):  The Seminoles struggled to beat a fading Virginia Tech team.  They need to focus on Maryland this week and avoid the upset.
  8. Florida (9-1): Florida eked by Lousiana-Lafayette and has Jacksonville State next.  The real test is the looming battle with Florida State.
  9. Clemson (9-1): The Tigers keep on rolling–this time easily defeating Maryland.  An at-large BCS berth remains possible.
  10. Oklahoma (7-2): Again, if there is going to be a two-loss team in the top 10, how about one that lost to two teams in the top 4?  That’s the Sooners.
  11. Texas A&M (8-2).
  12. LSU (8-2).
  13. South Carolina (8-2).
  14. Nebraska (8-2).
  15. Louisville (9-1).
  16. Oregon State (7-2).
  17. Michigan (7-3).
  18. Louisiana Tech (9-1).
  19. Texas (8-2).
  20. Stanford (8-2).
  21. UCLA (8-2).
  22. Boise State (8-2).
  23. Cincinnati (7-2).
  24. Central Florida (8-2).
  25. Southern California (7-3).

* * *

121.  Illinois (2-8).  The Illini keep losing.  Again, though, Purdue is in the same boat and the two teams play in this week!  Classic pillow fight!

122. Boston College (2-8).  Boston College looked decent against Notre Dame.  Then again, Notre Dame is not a dominant, high-scoring team.

123. Kansas (1-9).  Kansas is losing by tighter margins than Colorado.  So they move up a slot.

124. Colorado (1-9).  The Buffaloes lost by 25 to somebody.  It they had played someone good, they would have lost by 50.   Just another level of terrible.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,

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