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26 Aug 2016
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The Confidential’s ACC Football Roundtable: Preseason 2016

Every week, some or all of the Confidential’s correspondents will “roundtable” issues regarding the ACC, as well as recapping the week that was and previewing the week to come.  As we are still in the preseason, we are looking forward exclusively this week.

Q1: OK, with the football season right around the corner, who are the 5 best teams in the ACC (including Notre Dame) in order?  Which two are playing in the ACC Championship Game?  And who, if anyone, from the ACC will make the playoffs?

Steve Callahan (Notre Dame):  The Clemson Tigers are the best team in the ACC. Following them, is Florida State, Notre Dame, North Carolina, and the Miami Hurricanes.  ACC Title Game: FSU vs UNC. Playoffs: FSU

Harrison Huntley (NC State): Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, Louisville. Clemson and Miami playing in Charlotte.  I think any ACC champ would make the playoff assuming they only have a loss or two

Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): 1, Clemson; 2, FSU; 3. Notre Dame; 4. Miami; 5. Louisville.  Clemson vs Miami, with Clemson in the playoffs.

Q2: Looking objectively at your team, which team is your team most likely to upset?  And which team is most likely to upset your team?

Steve Callahan (Notre Dame): With an early home game and the Spartans having holes to fill in their starting offensive line, the Irish have a very good chance of beating Michigan State at home in the third week of the season. Since the Fighting Irish’s schedule doesn’t give them many opportunities to pull off an upset, Michigan State would be my choice, even if they are close in the rankings.  With only three away games this season, Notre Dame will avoid hostile environments and be less likely to get upset. I will pick the Miami Hurricanes as one team who can upset the Irish this season. Quarterback Brad Kaaya is special and will be looking to increase his draft stock with a big win in South Bend.

Harrison Huntley (NC State): That’s easy: FSU. It’s in Raleigh, and for whatever reason, NC State always does well against the Noles at home. I think Syracuse has the best chance to pull an upset, just because it’s on the road. Normally I’d say BC or Wake, but both are at home this year so State SHOULD be ok against these guys.

Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): Most Syracuse fans will say Virginia Tech because it is a home game.  But in Week 2, Louisville will have very little film to scout (and Colgate may not provide a preview of the entire offense), a Syracuse team without depth may be as healthy as it will be for any game all year, Louisville will still be “green” on its own, Syracuse is at home, etc.  I would not bet your kids’ lunch money on an upset, but it is my pick.  As for upsetting Syracuse, it is difficult with so few games to choose from. UConn is likely to be an underdog if Syracuse starts strong, so look for that as a potential loss in the same spirit as the USF win over Syracuse last year.  Sadly.  Frankly, it would be better for the ACC if B.C. or Wake Forest is the answer to this question–but both may be favored.

Q3: Who is one offensive player from your school for fans of other schools to keep an eye on in 2016?

Steve Callahan (Notre Dame): I know it may be cliché to choose the starting running back, but Tarean Folston is ready to be the star of the Notre Dame offensive attack. Folston was all set to be the starter last season but tore his ACL after three rushing attempts in the season opener. In 2014, Folston had four 100-yard rushing games, including 120 yards and a touchdown at #2 Florida State. Keep an eye out for the senior running back, who will be playing with a chip on his shoulder.

Harrison Huntley (NC State): You won’t see Jaylen Samuels on many watch lists, but that’s because he has no position. He can play RB, WR, TE, and anywhere in the backfield. He’s big and fast, a great combination.

Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): In this Dino Babers system, gotta go with the QB: Eric Dungey.  If he stays healthy and grasps the system, Dungey could put up huge numbers.  But those are some big “ifs” to watch for.  With a fairly decent compliment of skill players (relative to past seasons), we really may see Syracuse play fast and be fast.

Q4: Who is one defensive or special teams player for fans of other schools to take notice of?

Steve Callahan (Notre Dame): Cole Luke will be the leader in the secondary. The senior is coming off a little disappointing season after his breakout sophomore season. Luke only had 6 passes defended last year meanwhile he had 11 in 2014. Watch the 5’11” senior come back to form in his last year with the Fighting Irish.

Harrison Huntley (NC State): Nyheim Hines is a guy that’s so fast, he lines up at RB and WR. This speed is what makes him a great option when returning kicks and punts

Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): After 7 years of Scott Shafer as defensive coordinator and head coach, and with a very inexperienced and not-so-deep defense, this could be a struggle.  All the more reason that Syracuse will need to score a lot and actually convert turnovers (however many) into points.  With linebacker perhaps the area with most returning depth, and Zaire Franklin the junior that was a captain last year as a sophomore MLB likely to anchor that unit, watch Franklin.

Well, that is what these correspondents think.  What do you think?  Please feel free to share below.  And if you are interested in being a correspondent, see here.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Roundtable, Football, NC State Correspondent, Notre Dame Correspondent, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , , , ,
24 Aug 2016
4 Comments

A Quick Look at the ACC Schools’ Out-of-Conference Opponents

The Confidential has already done its over-under projections for each team in 2016.  In doing so, it became obvious that some ACC teams are scheduling tough, and some ACC teams are scheduling weak opponents.  Let’s take a closer look (bold games are rivalries or conference-dictated games with Notre Dame).

  • Boston College: UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn
  • Clemson: Auburn, Troy, S Carolina State, South Carolina
  • Duke: NC Central, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Army
  • FSU: Ole Miss, Charleston Southern, USF, Florida
  • Georgia Tech: Mercer, Vanderbilt, Georgia Southern, Georgia
  • Louisville: Charlotte, Marshall, Houston, Kentucky
  • Miami: Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, Notre Dame
  • North Carolina: Georgia, Illinois, James Madison, Citadel
  • North Carolina State: William & Mary, East Carolina, Old Dominion, Notre Dame
  • Pittsburgh: Villanova, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Marshall
  • Syracuse: Colgate, USF, UConn, Notre Dame
  • Virginia: Richmond, Oregon, UConn, Central Michigan
  • Virginia Tech: Liberty, Tennessee, East Carolina, Notre Dame
  • Wake Forest: Tulane, Delaware, Indiana, Army

The Annual Greg Schiano Pansy Scheduling Award:

Boston College–after years of decent, tough scheduling, the Eagles decided to go to the opposite extreme with UConn being the toughest opponent.  Not a single P5 opponent, which is unique to the conference and earns this spot.

Runner-up: Wake Forest gets the nod by having Indiana on its schedule.  Do not sleep on Tulane under its new coach. Army is never a pushover either.

The To Be The Best, You Must Beat the Best Award:

Pittsburgh: After a great leap last year, the Panthers are looking to not only win the Coastal, but make playoff noise if they can win out.  Villanova is a tougher-than-normal FCS opponent.  Then, Penn State and Oklahoma State will be two huge out-of-conference tussles.  Marshall is no slouch either, especially for a late-season game.

Runner-up: North Carolina is taking on an SEC foe and a Big 10 foe (albeit Illinois).  Although Virginia Tech has Tennessee and Notre Dame, the latter was dictated by the ACC.  Credit to the Hokies, but UNC did its two major conference opponents 100% voluntarily.

The That’s Just How Champions Schedule Award:

Clemson (tie): With South Carolina at the back end of the schedule, Clemson still went ahead and scheduled Auburn at the front end.  When you are in the hunt for the playoffs year-after-year, only then does scheduling matter and Clemson is doing the right thing by having two SEC schools.  Not Clemson’s fault if South Carolina is/becomes a dumpster fire.

Florida State (tie): Florida State added Mississippi to Florida,  This may be an even tougher combination than Clemson’s.  Or it may not be.  Either way, credit to the Seminoles for scheduling tough, as a potential playoff team should.

If we had to rank the schedule difficulty, without regard to how the teams were scheduled, we would do it this way

  1. Florida State–USF as a third opponent trumps Troy
  2. Clemson–see above
  3. Virginia Tech–Tennessee and Notre Dame are two very difficult opponents for the Hokies
  4. Pittsburgh–Penn State and Oklahoma State are two very difficult opponents scheduled voluntarily, while Villanova and Marshall are local teams with the motivation to ruin Pitt’s season
  5. North Carolina–like Pitt, UNC had to get Georgia and Illinois on its schedule without the ACC’s help.  Still, it is only Illinois.
  6. Duke–the ACC forced Duke’s hand on Notre Dame, but Northwestern is a quality add.
  7. Georgia Tech–Georgia is an annual foe, but Vanderbilt is a second P5 school.
  8. Louisville–Kentucky is what it is… the Indiana of the SEC.  Houston will/should be very good. A very challenging schedule, on top of Clemson/FSU.
  9. Syracuse–usually at the top of this list, Notre Dame keeps Syracuse above many schools, while USF is a good AAC team.  Probably.  Neither USF or UConn are P5 teams.
  10. Virginia–Oregon will be tough, the remainder is not
  11. NC State–Notre Dame is tough, East Carolina is good.  William & Mary and Old Dominion?
  12. Miami–Notre Dame and little else, although App State is always capable of the upset, while the local schools will WANT to win badly
  13. Wake Forest–Indiana is what keeps Wake Forest out of the basement.  Pretty sad.
  14. B.C.–when UConn anchors your OOC schedule, you have made your path as easy as possible.  A team that upset USC a few years ago is capable of a little bit more challenge than this.

What do you think?  Did we get these awards/rankings right or wrong?

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , ,
16 Aug 2016

Still Room for the Confidential ACC Survivor League!

The Confidential’s Survivor Pool is back for 2016!  2015 went down to the wire… see results here.  For 2016, we are back, continuing the double-elimination format!  Sign up today!

We are limiting this to the first 100 entrants.  Last year’s entrants were given a heads up to join.  Now opening this up to all ACC fans. 

Winner gets $50.00 via PayPal.  See the official rules here:

http://www.officefootballpool.com/pools.cfm?poolid=115035&p=2&pwd=n%2Arbaa

Pool ID Number: 115035
Pool Entry Code: n*rbaa

With thousands of ACC fans, sign up today!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,
03 Aug 2016

August Distraction: The AP Top 100

The Associated Press decided to take a look back at its 80 years of issuing polls to generate a “top 100.”  They used a formula that took into consideration appearances in polls, #1 rankings, and national championships.  The top five schools using that criteria turn out to be Ohio State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama and Southern California.   But how did the ACC schools do?

  • Notre Dame #3
  • Florida State #9 (non-conference rival Florida was #10)
  • Miami #13
  • Clemson #22 (non-conference rival South Carolina was #48)
  • Pittsburgh #23 (non-conference rival West Virginia was #33)
  • Georgia Tech #26 (non-conference rival Georgia was #15)
  • Virginia Tech #31
  • North Carolina #38
  • Syracuse #41
  • Virginia #52
  • Duke #53
  • NC State #56
  • Boston College #57
  • Louisville #62 (non-conference rival Kentucky was #68)
  • Wake Forest #80

Thus, all ACC teams made the top 100.  Which is nice.

Clemson is WAY above South Carolina.  In fact, of the schools with SEC rivals, only Georgia Tech failed to finished higher than its counterpart.

Syracuse finished at #41, despite not being ranked since 2001.  One can only wonder how much higher the Orange would have been if the list had been tallied back then.  Of course, if they had not hired Greg Robinson… nevermind.

And Wake Forest was not the lowest P5 school.  Iowa State, Rutgers, and Vanderbilt all earned that status.

In fact, do you want to know how pathetic Rutgers is?  Rutgers finished behind Holy Cross and Fordham.  And Big 10 fans think Rutgers is a NYC school!  Sadly, Rutgers is also a football school… certainly not known for their elite hoops.  Other schools to top Rutgers were Army, Penn, Rice, Tulane, Wyoming, Cornell, Toledo, and Santa Clara.

Big XII expansion candidates: BYU: #34, Houston: #49, Colorado State: #77, Cincinnati: #81, USF: #94.  UConn, Memphis, and Central Florida did not make the list.

In any event, even excluding Notre Dame, the ACC had 14 schools in the top 80– 17.5%, which is just under the 20% expected as one of 5 power conferences.  And with 8 of the top 41 teams (40 excluding Notre Dame), that works out to exactly 20%.  Naturally, including Notre Dame makes things look even better.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, News and tagged ,
09 Jul 2016

By Popular Demand–the ACC Survivor Pool is Back for 2016!

The Confidential’s Survivor Pool is back for 2016!  2015 went down to the wire… see results here.  For 2016, we are back, continuing the double-elimination format!  Sign up today!

We are limiting this to the first 100 entrants.  Last year’s entrants were given a heads up to join.  Now opening this up to all ACC fans. 

Winner gets $50.00 via PayPal.  See the official rules here:

http://www.officefootballpool.com/pools.cfm?poolid=115035&p=2&pwd=n%2Arbaa

Pool ID Number: 115035
Pool Entry Code: n*rbaa

With thousands of ACC fans, sign up today!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , ,
27 Jun 2016

NBA Draft Recap

The Confidential notes that the ACC was well-represented in last week’s NBA draft.  Indeed, the following ACC players were drafted:

  • Duke’s Brandon Ingram went #2 to the Lakers
  • Florida State’s Malik Beasley went #19 to the Nuggets
  • Syracuse’s Malachi Richardson went #22 to the Hornets
  • North Carolina’s Brice Johnson went #25 to the Clippers
  • Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon went #36 to the Bucks
  • Louisville’s Chinanu Onuaku went #37 to the Rockets
  • Notre Dame’s Demetrius Jackson went #45 to the Celtics
  • Syracuse’s Michael Gbinije went #49 to the Pistons
  • North Carolina’s Marcus Paige went #55 to the Nets

Thus, 9 of the 60 draftees were ACC products.  Of course, with 15 foreign players drafted, 9 of 45 college players drafted were from the ACC.  This is a solid 20%.  With college basketball being so much deeper than college football, this is an outstanding percentage for any conference.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Draft and tagged , ,
02 Jun 2016

Conference Expansion News, June 2, 2016

The Big XII is expanding, a rumor states.  The Big XII is NOT expanding, a rumor states.  The Big XII is getting a network, a rumor states.  The Big XII is NOT getting a network, a rumor states.  The Big XII is going to share a network with the ACC, a rumor states.  No it is not.  And so on.  Also, “rumor” also seems to include targeted media leaks by various Big XII schools with unique agendas, so it is not all Twitter-based fodder.  In the end, nobody has any idea what the Big XII will do.

In calmer seas, fans of ACC schools could simply grab a bag of popcorn and watch this inter-conference schizophrenia unfold.  But the landscape of conference realignment remains concerning, as the ACC has its own vulnerabilities and financial gap.  Also, several ACC schools could be in trouble if conference realignment picks up steam.  And even the no-brainer elite schools want to control their future, not be “stuck” in any conference.

Admittedly, the idea of a joint network with the Big XII and ACC has some appeal.  With very little geographic overlap, the two conferences could supply an ESPN channel with plenty of content.  This might also set the table well for various basketball and football “challenges” between the conference, as well as scheduling benefits.  What the ACC provides in population access, the Big XII adds with the State of Texas and slightly more football credibility.  So perhaps such a venture has some potential to be a win-win-win for both conferences and ESPN (who could also direct some content to the SEC network, if necessary).  Moreover, any strengthening of these two conferences would be a stick in the eye to the Big 10, which may still have some value to ESPN folks.

Of course, how to make money is quickly subsumed by how to divide it.  First, Texas still has the Longhorn Network deal.  Second, Notre Dame has its own TV deal.  Third, Notre Dame has its quasi-membership in the ACC.  Fourth, BYU remains looking as a school to do the same.  Fifth, does the Big XII slide up to 12 or 14 or 15 schools to even the conferences up?  And Sixth, how would money get divided anyway–1/3 to Big XII, 1/3 to ACC, 1/3 to ESPN?  Who knows?  But there are far too many proverbial “alpha dogs” in this mix to think it can all get worked out.

In any event, the Big XII may or may not be doing any number of things.  The ACC schools stay quiet, which is some sort of minor testament to the conference’s stability.  Hopefully.  But this realignment issue never seems to die.  So pay attention.

What do you think?  What is the future for the Big XII, ACC, and networks?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Network, Conference Realignment, ESPN, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
30 Apr 2016

ACC In the NFL–2016 Draft Update After 3 Rounds

Yesterday, the Confidential recapped Round 1.  There was an error–there were only 31 picks because New England lost its first round pick to whatever latest scandal they were embroiled in.  For whatever reason, having 6 of 31 picks just looks a lot better than 6/32.  Still, it was hard to call Round 1 spectacular with so much Notre Dame influence.  Day 2 did not do much to improve the analysis.  But, upon further review, there is nothing for the ACC to hang its head about.

Here is a list of the ACC players taken in Round 2:

  • Kevin Dodd, DE Clemson (Tennessee Titans)
  • Jaylon Smith, LB Notre Dame (Dallas Cowboys)
  • Nick Martin, OL Notre Dame (Houston Texans)
  • Mackensie Alexander, CB Clemson (Minnesota Vikings)
  • Tyler Boyd, WR Pittsburgh (Cincinnati Bengals)
  • TJ Green, S Clemson (Indianapolis Colts)
  • Roberto Aguayo, K Florida State (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
  • Adam Gotsis, DL Georgia Tech (Denver Broncos)

After 2 rounds, the ACC had 14/63 picks.   That is 22%.  With 5 major conferences, right about where the ACC should be to maintain par.  However, with 4 of those being Notre Dame, and the fair perception that Notre Dame is not really an ACC football school, that drops things to 10/63, or 16%.  Still, that is not horrible given that 8 of those 63 draftees were not from P5 schools.  10 out of the 55 P5 players drafted works out to 18%, maybe 1 draftee short of where the ACC “should be.”  Certainly not worthy of concern.

Here is a list of the ACC players taken in Round 3:

  • Keivarae Russell, CB, Notre Dame (Kansas City Chiefs)
  • Joe Thuney, OG, NC State (New England Patriots)
  • Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (Washington Redskins)
  • C.J. Prosise, RB, Notre Dame (Seattle Seahawks)
  • Jacoby Brissett, QB, NC State (New England Patriots)
  • Justin Simmons, S, Boston College (Denver Broncos)

Of the 98 players drafted in the first three rounds, 20 were from the ACC (including Notre Dame).  That works out to 20.4%.  If you exclude Notre Dame’s impressive six draftees, that drops things down to 14.3%, roughly 1 in 7 draftees being from ACC schools.

The Confidential is of the opinion that the ACC should strive to supply approximately 17% of the draftees each year.  That corresponds to 1/6th of the draftees, with 1/6th also apportioned for the SEC, Big 10, Pac 12, Big 12, and “other.”  As for the “other,” the NFL certainly does not shy away from taking players with potential from outside the P5.  In fact, 15 of the 98 players drafted through 3 rounds were from schools outside the P5.

Here are the “by conference” totals:

  1. Big 10: 22
  2. SEC: 22
  3. ACC: 20 (including Notre Dame)
  4. Other: 15
  5. ACC: 14 (excluding Notre Dame)
  6. Pac 12: 10
  7. Big XII: 9

If you do not include Notre Dame as an ACC school, even an unspectular first three round still has the ACC well ahead of the Pac 12 and Big XII for producing players.  Even adjusted for fewer teams, the Pac 12 and Big XII still fall short of meeting the 1 draftee per school ratio that the ACC meets.  If you include Notre Dame, then the ACC bumps right up behind the Big 10 and the SEC.

The best way to sum up the first three rounds from an ACC perspective is to state that it has been an “OK” draft.  The draft has done nothing to suggest that the ACC is not worthy of every respect as a football conference.  Regardless of whether you count Notre Dame as an ACC school, the ACC is still a solid “third” in producing NFL talent.

Posted by acaffrey in Draft, Football, Opinion and tagged , , ,
29 Apr 2016

NFL Draft Update: ACC Players Round 1

With Round 1 of the NFL Draft complete, here is a look at which ACC schools had players drafted and where they went:

  • With the 5th overall pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected FSU cornerback, Jalen Ramsey.
  • With the 6th overall pick, the Baltimore Ravens selected Notre Dame tackle, Ronnie Stanley.
  • With the 12th overall pick, the New Orleans Saints selected Louisville defensive tackle, Sheldon Rankins.
  • With the 19th overall pick, the Buffalo Bills selected Clemson defensive end, Shaq Lawson.
  • With the 21st overall pick, the Houston Texans selected Notre Dame wide receiver, Will Fuller
  • With the 25th overall pick, the Pittsburgh Steelers selected Miami cornerback, Artie Burns

Thus, 4/32 picks are from ACC schools… 6/32 if you include Notre Dame (as we do).   By comparison, the SEC had 8 players drafted, while Ohio State alone had five players drafted in the first round.  Not a great first day, but there are six more rounds for the ACC to show itself as a top conference for producing NFL talent.

Among the key ACC Players still left to be drafted are:

  • QBs: Jacoby Brissett, NC State
  • RBs: CJ Prosise, Notre Dame; Shaquille Powell, Duke; Shad Thornton, NC State
  • WRs/TEs: Tyler Boyd, Pitt
  • Offensive Line: Nick Martin, Notre Dame; Joe Thuney, NC State; Landon Turner, North Carolina
  • Defensive Line: Kevin Dodd, Clemson; Sheldon Day, Notre Dame; Ron Thompson, Syracuse
  • Linebackers: BJ Goodson, Clemson;
  • Secondary: Mackensie Alexander, Clemson; TJ Green, Clemson; Kendall Fuller, Virginia Tech, Jeremy Cash, Duke
  • Special Teams/Other: Roberto Aguayo (K), FSU;

It will be interesting to see if and when each of these players gets drafted.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Draft, Football and tagged , , ,
13 Apr 2016
1 Comment

ACC Basketball: League-wide Early-Entry Update

After a dominating March (other than the final game), the A.C.C. was one heck of a basketball conference in 2015-2016.  That is the good news.  The bad news is that so much talent inevitably leads to a departure of such high-skilled talent.  For a few, it is graduation.  For the underclassmen, however, it is the temptation of the NBA.  Here is the latest update on what ACC players are leaving:

      • Abdul Malik Abu 6-8 240 PF NC State So.
      • Anthony Barber 6-2 185 PG NC State Jr.
      • VJ Beachem 6-8 200 SF Notre Dame Jr.
      • Malik Beasley 6-5 195 SG Florida St. Fr.
      • Jaron Blossomgame 6-7 220 SF Clemson Jr.
      • Brandon Ingram 6-9 195 SF Duke Fr.
      • Demetrius Jackson 6-1 194 PG Notre Dame Jr.
      • Chinanu Onuaku 6-10 245 C Louisville So.
      • Xavier Rathan Meyes 6-2 190 PG Florida St. So.

The sad part, of course, is that several of the players on this list are not even likely to be drafted at all.  One can only hope that it is worth it ultimately.  It is easy to criticize, but being able to get paid a living wage to play basketball is not the worst thing in the world either.

There are still a few players to keep an eye on.  Syracuse’s Malachi Richardson and North Carolina’s Justin Jackson had deep March runs and could be drafted in the first round (albeit the latter half).  If you are fans of those schools, you might want to hold off on expectations for 2016-2017 that include them.

If you hear any news before we do, please do not hesitate to share here or on Twitter.

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Draft and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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