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27 Aug 2012

The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # 1)

With the football season a mere three days away, the time has come for the Confidential’s First Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  Here they are:

  1. Florida State: It’s put up or shut up time for Florida State.  Well, not really.  After all, the Big XII may be crossing its fingers when it says it is not interested in expansion.
  2. Virginia Tech:  Until someone proves otherwise, you might as well pencil in Virginia Tech every year for the conference championship game.
  3. Clemson: After a long off-season trying to forget about the Orange Bowl, the Tigers get to take it out on an opponent.  Unfortunately, it’s not a cupcake–it’s Auburn.
  4. Virginia:  Virginia hopes to maintain the momentum it regained last year.  Need to care of business against FCS Richmond.
  5. North Carolina State: A win against Tennessee, even if the SEC foe is down, would be a great start.  The ACC needs wins like this.
  6. Georgia Tech: It’s hard to predict a win over Virginia Tech in the opener, but Virginia Tech can be vulnerable early in the season.  Ask James Madison. Well, not the former President.
  7. North Carolina: Elon?  Ugh.  Enjoy that game.
  8. Pittsburgh: Because of WVU leaving the Big East, Pitt has two games against FCS foes.  First up… Youngstown State.
  9. Wake Forest: After the disappointing opener loss at Syracuse last year, Wake gets an easier foe in Liberty.  Should start 1-0 obviously.
  10. Miami: Boston College is a tough opener.  At least Miami will not have to deal with all the suspensions like last year.
  11. Syracuse: With Syracuse’s schedule, they pretty much NEED to win against a good Northwestern team.  We’ll see.
  12. Boston College: BC went 0-6 against FBS foes to start last year.  A win over Miami would be a great way to start this year out.
  13. Duke: Florida International may not be a strong team, but Duke has no business looking past anyone.
  14. Maryland: If Maryland is going to turn it around, they absolutely cannot lose to William & Mary.  Last year they opened with a win and the season imploded.

This will get all mixed up soon enough.  Let the games begin….

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Aug 2012

Week 1 Preview: Do Maryland, Syracuse, Duke, BC, and Wake Forest Have Legit Bowl Chances?

I hope you had your fill of summer because it is about to come to an abrupt stop.  Sure, there is plenty of nice weather in September.  But it is also the time of year that your football team–even the Washington States and Dukes and Mississippis–are still alive for a bowl game.  After all, it takes six losses before a team is ineligible for bowl and even that is perhaps going to be loosened up.  So nobody gets eliminated in September.  So… with Week 1 of College Football JUST around the corner, here is a look at what the bottom 5 teams (excluding teams that are automatically ineligible–North Carolina and likely Miami) in the ACC have to do to become bowl eligible this year.

The Confidential does not care what any outsider thinks, the ACC is going to be fairly strong this year.  The weakest teams in the conference–as per the Confidential’s pre-preseason rankings–all have a conceivable shot of making a bowl game this year.  Consider:

  • MARYLAND.  Maryland was abysmal last year.  The new coach, Randy Edsall, decided to ignore what has failed for many new coaches by running players out of the program and blowing things up completely.  As we saw with RichRod in Michigan, one has to be very careful when dismantling and rebuilding.  Edsall permanently lost some of the fan base last year.  Winning 10 games over 3 seasons will mean no 4th season.  The good news is that Maryland has a tough OOC schedule, but one that was perfectly designed, in the Confidential’s opinion.  Maryland opens with FCS William and Mary.  They then move up to play Temple, before moving up one more step to UConn.  Those are three winnable games.  West Virginia is probably a loss most seasons and should be this year.  Wake Forest is at home–winnable #4.  Boston College is away, but that has to be a winnable game for #5.  Now all Maryland needs is to steal a game from the group of North Carolina, North Carolina State, and the even tougher portion of the slate.  With 5 “winnable games,” a 6-win season is not at all impossible.  Likely?  Nah.  But possible.
  • DUKE.  Unlike Maryland, Duke slated its toughest OOC game for Week #2, with Stanford.  But this is a post-Luck, post-Harbaugh Stanford team.  Still, that has to be considered a loss.  Nevertheless, with Memphis, North Carolina Central, and Florida International filling up the OOC slate, a 3-1 OOC record is very reasonable.  Finding the next three wins for Duke is a challenge though.  The best chances are Wake Forest (even if on the road) and the sanctions-laden North Carolina and Miami games.  Both of those games are at home.  It’s possible.
  • BOSTON COLLEGE.  Boston College will be better than last year, but will it translate into victories?  BC opens with Miami at home.  Who knows the mindset of Miami.  But it’s a possible win.  Maine is next, which should be a win.  Northwestern on the road will be tough, especially if Northwestern loses its season opener to Syracuse and is desperate.  Still, Northwestern’s small stadium is not imposing.  It’s winnable.  The Game 5 road game against Army is a winnable game, obviously.  Maryland visits in October, which is yet another winnable game.  Finding the next two is a bit tougher.  Wake Forest is a road game, but still a possibility.  That still leaves a home game against Notre Dame and a road game against North Carolina State.  Bowl eligibility is within reach if Boston College can not only meet its potential, but exceed it.
  • SYRACUSE.  Poor Syracuse.  They have a 5th-year Senior quarterback, but inexperience at running back and the continued trend of underwhelming wide receivers.  The defense will have one more year of experience, but lost two guys to the NFL.  But what really makes this a tough season is the daunting OOC schedule.  As previously noted, Syracuse is doing all but scheduling NFL teams this year, with USC, Missouri, and Northwestern on the slate.  Minnesota is a battle tested BCS program, while even FCS foe Stony Brook is primed to repeat its college baseball run.  In order to go to a bowl, Syracuse HAS to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and Stony Brook.  Even then, Syracuse has struggled so much in  conference games since firing Paul Pasqualoni, it is hard to envision going 3-4 in conference.  But if they do, the wins will likely come on the road against Rutgers, at home against UConn, and on the road at Temple.  About the only good thing is that Syracuse has been 5-2 each of the past two seasons, before imploding due to lack of depth.  If Syracuse can somehow get to 5-2 this year, all they will have to do is beat Temple.  We’ll see.
  • WAKE FOREST.  Notably, all of the current ACC teams above are looking at Wake Forest as a necessary win to get to bowl eligibility.  So that’s three winnable games for Wake Forest right there–with only Maryland being a road game.  Wake Forest also has winnable games against Army and Liberty.  And given that Wake Forest has Florida State’s number lately…. well, let’s not go there.  Let’s get win #6 from the group of North Carolina, Vanderbilt, and North Carolina State.  Actually, Wake Forest could end up winning 7-8 games the way the schedule breaks down.

Of these teams, you can feel strongest penciling in Wake Forest for a bowl.  But this is why the week leading up to Week 1 is great.  The injuries (excluding Maryland) still seem manageable.  Nobody has lost a “winnable game” yet.  Even September will retain some enthusiasm.  And for the 5 teams with the toughest roads to bowl-eligibility, there is a path.  Now they just have to go walk it.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
21 Aug 2012
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Ranking the ACC Out-of-Conference Schedules

The 14 ACC schools certainly have different scheduling philosophies for out-of-conference games.  However, there is not one team that has a truly embarrassing slate, especially relative to the program at issue.  Here is the Confidential’s ranking of teams and the degree of difficulty for their OOC schedules:

Syracuse–USC and Missouri.  That alone puts them atop the list.  Add in Northwestern and Minnesota as two more BCS-level opponents.  Even Stony Brook is a high-level FCS opponent.  Syracuse gets the AC/DC Honorary “Big Balls” Award.

Miami–Kansas State, South Florida and Notre Dame are three high quality opponents.  Only Bethune-Cookman is a sure win.

Florida State–Florida and South Florida are very challenging opponents.  And FSU gets points for being willing to schedule West Virginia, even though that game was cancelled due to West Virginia fleeing the Big East.

Clemson–Auburn and South Carolina are two high-quality OOC opponents also.  Ball State may be tricky too.

Boston College: Notre Dame and Northwestern will be challenges.  Maine is good for an FCS program.  Army may or may not be good.

Virginia–Penn State was supposed to be the key game, but that is now weaker. TCU remains as a very tough opponent though.  Louisiana Tech and Richmond round out the schedule.

Pitt: Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are tough opponents.  Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb mean two FCS opponents.  Buffalo is not an overly difficult game for OOC #5.

Virginia Tech–returned to its Big East roots with games and Pitt and Cincinnati.  The other games are against Bowling Green and Austin Peay.  Meh.

Maryland–West Virginia and UConn, which gives Maryland the edge over NC State.  Temple is not a shabby third OOC game.  William and Mary round out the schedule.

North Carolina State–Tennessee and UConn will be OK opponents, but this is not the Tennessee of the 1990s and UConn did not exist back then.  South Alabama and Citadel are decent for their mid-major/FCS levels, respectively.

Georgia Tech–Georgia is always tough.  Brigham Young may or may not be a challenge, but Middle Tennessee State and Presbyterian are not going to be.

Wake Forest–Notre Dame will be tough, and you can never look past Vanderbilt.  Army and Liberty are also on the schedule.

Duke–Besides Stanford, the Blue Devils play a soft Florida International, Memphis, and North Carolina Central.

North Carolina–Louisville will be good, but Idaho, Elon, and East Carolina are underwhelming.  North Carolina gets the Beck Honorary “Loser” Award for 2012.  [And let’s not talk scandal either.]

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Aug 2012

The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # -1)

With the football season a mere two weeks away, the time has come for the Confidential’s Pre-Preseason Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  In any event, here they are:

  1. Florida State: Sooner or later, the King must be the King.  It has been a long time since the Seminoles were dominant.  Not sure it will happen this year, but they have the inside track for the ACC Championship.
  2. Virginia Tech:  While Miami and Florida State have been the ACC Kings, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC most seasons since the realignment.  The Hokies slide above Clemson due to divisional differences.
  3. Clemson: The first thing Clemson needs to do is forget about the late-season collapse.  The second thing it needs to do is look at all the talent on both sides of the ball.  It’s going to be fun.  Don’t count the Tigers out.
  4. Virginia:  The Confidential likes what happened with Virginia last year and envisions the team building off that success.  It is amazing what a good coaching hire can do to rejuvenate a program.  That Penn State game looks a lot less daunting right now too.
  5. North Carolina State: The Wolfpack have a fairly talented crew returning.  The difficulty of the schedule is questionable.  Tennessee and UConn could go either way.
  6. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets open the season with Virginia Tech.  If the Tech battle goes Ga Tech’s way, this #6 ranking will be low.
  7. North Carolina: The OOC game against Louisville will be tough, especially on the road.  But Elon, Idaho, and East Carolina is not too tough for the remainder of the slate.
  8. Pittsburgh: Every year, the Panthers seem ready to make a run.  Every year they do not.  So, it is #8 for Pitt until they capitalize on potential.
  9. Wake Forest: Not sure where Wake Forest is going with this OOC slate.  Anything from 1-3 to 3-1 is possible with Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Army, and Liberty.  Pencil in a win over Florida state though.
  10. Miami: A reasonably challenging OOC slate with USF, Notre Dame, and Kansas State.  But Miami gets North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech at home.
  11. Syracuse: An insane OOC, with preseason #1 USC, Missouri, Northwestern, and even Minnesota.  Is any other team playing 4 BCS conference teams OOC?  Throw in 4 conference road games and the USC game being home but on a neutral site and this has the makings of a very difficult year.
  12. Boston College: Boston College rallied last year, showing some serious character.  This should pay off in 2013.  Just not quite bowl-ready though.
  13. Duke: Outside of Stanford, Duke’s OOC is very soft.  This #13 ranking may end up being a little low.  But Duke’s going to have to prove it on the field before the Confidential believes.
  14. Maryland: Well, it cannot get WORSE for Randy Edsall, can it?  A tough OOC slate with Temple, UConn, West Virginia and William & Mary?  That’s right… William AND Mary.

The Confidential predicts a Seminoles-Hokies battle for the ACC Championship, with the Seminoles showing the world that they are back.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
10 Aug 2012

Today in the A.C.C. (August 10, 2012)

The Confidential had some fun yesterday at the expense of the Atlantic Coast Conference, but today it is back to the uber-serious ACC news.  Here is what is going on in the ACC for August 10, 2012:

Well, everyone plans to retire (except for 40% of transition baby boomers).  The real news here is that Phillips plans to do so soon–specifically, at the end of his term in July 2013.  So now Clemson must find a brand new A.D.  Or at least one that is less than retirement age.  Clemson President James F. Barker indicated that a national search for a replacement will be launched this fall, with the hopes of having a successor in place before Phillips’ contract ends.  Barker also had a slew of positive things to say about Phillips.  It is butt-kissing, funeral-quality stuff, so go read the ESPN article to get the flavor.

  • If you are an ACC school, or plan to be in 2013, chances are you are after an offensive lineman from Rochester, New York, named Alex Officer.

Actually, this was reported in ESPN’s “rumors” section, with a link to a Scout.com website that the Confidential is not yet “liquid” enough to subscribe too.  The upshot is that Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, and Virginia Tech are already after this guy.  Not sure where Randy Edsall is on this one.

This article also goes way out on a limb in projecting Duke and Wake Forest to be in the cellar of their respective divisions.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Today in the ACC and tagged , , , , , , ,
08 Aug 2012

Today in the A.C.C. (August 8, 2012)

Here is the latest that is happening with the Atlantic Coast Conference, as of August 8, 2012.

  • Previously, the Confidential noted the unfortunate circumstances surrounding Duke WR Blair Holiday.  Actually, it was yesterday, but whatever.

In a classy gesture, the Duke football team will be wearing a #8 on their helmets to honor him this season.  Good for them.  But if YOU want to do something, how about giving a donation to the fund set up to assist him: “For information on how to contribute to the The Blair Holliday Recovery Fund, visit www.giveforward.com/theblairhollidayrecoveryfund.”

  • In Miami, Ray-Ray Armstrong is not accepting his dismissal from the team without a fight; instead, he has lawyered up.

Armstrong’s counsel plans to file an injunction to force the “school to allow Armstrong to practice with the team until the NCAA determines if he has violated any bylaws.”  Of course, Armstrong’s counsel also noted that Armstrong has a lengthy history and was dismissed based on a few different incidents.  Still, it will be Armstrong’s contention that Miami has dismissed Armstrong just to make itself look better while the NCAA ponders just how much of a penalty Miami deserves.

  • In basketball news, Boston College has offered a scholarship to Chicago-area forward Evan Boudreaux.

The 6-foot 7 forward plays for Lake Forest high school.  Even if he chooses Boston College do not expect to see him any time soon–he is only a 15-year-old sophomore.  Nevertheless, he seems to have acquitted himself well against decent competition recently.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Football and tagged , , , , ,
09 Apr 2012

Boston College Wins Hockey National Championship

The Confidential does not cover many sports outside of football, basketball, and lacrosse–but it is always noteworthy when an ACC school wins a national title.  Thus, congratulations are in order for Boston College, who won its third national title in five years by defeating Ferris State University (of Michigan), 4-1.  It was the Eagles’ fifth national championship overall.

The ACC had this to say about the game:

Top-seed Boston College scored twice in the first period and sealed the fifth national championship in program history, 4-1, with two more goals in the third. Junior goaltender Parker Milner recorded 27 saves en route to being named the 2012 Frozen Four Most Outstanding Player on Saturday night at the Tampa Bay Times Forum.

* * *

Steven Whitney led the Eagles with two goals, scoring the first on a put-back at 3:18 in the first. Senior forward Barry Almeida won a loose puck near the crease and put a shot on net. The puck deflected off a Bulldog skate, landing in front of the Reading, Mass. native.

While Boston College is the ACC’s only hockey team, it is nevertheless a source of pride that the ACC now has the best team.  Let’s hope that starts carrying over to the revenue sports.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Hockey and tagged , , ,
01 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: February 29, 2012

Leap Day–February 29, 2012–a day of basketball for the ACC.

The big game of the day was the matchup between two bubble teams–North Carolina State and Miami.  Ultimately, the Wolfpack successfully defended its home court and kept its March hopes alive by defeating the Hurricanes, 77-73.  However, Miami led at the half by two points and this win did not come easily by any stretch.  Rion Brown came off the bench to lead Miami with 15 points, while Malcolm Grant added 14.  The Hurricanes dropped to 8-7 in conference play and 17-11 overall.  CJ Leslie was the big star for North Carolina State, scoring 21 points and grabbing 11 rebounds.  Lorenzo Brown added 16 for the Wolfpack, who improved to 8-7 in conference play and 19-11 overall.

How about a little credit to Boston College?  With nothing but pride to play for–and nothing to play for in many months in fact–the Eagles defeated Georgia Tech, 56-52, for yet another conference win.  Boston College was led by Matt Humphrey with 13 points and Ryan Anderson with 10 points.  Daniel Miller led Georgia Tech with 13 points.  With the loss, Georgia Tech drops to 10-19 overall and 3-12 in conference play.  With the win, Boston College improves to 9-20 overall, but also to 4-11 in conference play.  That’s just enough to get the Eagles out of last place in the ACC standings.

And the Confidential will throw some credit to Pittsburgh too.  The season has been a disappointment, but senior Ashton Gibbs led Pittsburgh to an 89-69 home win over St. Johns in the regular season home finale.  Gibbs scored 19 points and Dante Taylor added 17.  With the win, the Panthers moved to 16-14 overall and 5-12 in conference play.  A bright spot in an otherwise gloomy season.

Nothing gloomy for North Carolina.  The #6 Tar Heels improved to 26-4 by handily defeating Maryland, 88-64, in the final home game of the year.  Senior Tyler Zeller went out in style, scoring 30 points  and grabbing 8 rebounds in his home finale.  Josh Henson added 19 points and 9 rebounds, while Kendall Marshall dished out 8 assists.  North Carolina’s defense held ACC leading scorer Terrell Stoglin to 4 for 18 shooting, although he finished with 16 points.  Nick Faust led the Terps with a career-high 17 points.  With the loss, Maryland drops to 16-13 overall and 6-9 in conference play.

After these games, here are the updated ACC Standings:

ACC Standings

TEAM CONF OVERALL
Duke 13-2 26-4
North Carolina 13-2 26-4
Florida State 10-4 19-9
Virginia 8-6 21-7
North Carolina State 8-7 19-11
Miami (FL) 8-7 17-11
Clemson 7-7 15-13
Maryland 6-9 16-13
Virginia Tech 4-10 15-14
Wake Forest 4-11 13-16
Boston College 4-11 9-20
Georgia Tech 3-12 10-19
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , ,
27 Feb 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: February 27, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of February 27, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (29-1)  Syracuse went on a 26-0 run to defeat South Florida.  Syracuse gave up a 17-point lead against UConn, but still won.  This team just wins right now.

2. Duke (25-4) Duke and North Carolina have identical 25-4 records, including the same 12-2 conference record.  But Duke beat North Carolina.

3. North Carolina (25-4)  North Carolina does get a chance at revenge this Saturday against Duke.  It should be winner take all for the ACC crown.

4. Florida State (19-9)  Have looked vulnerable lately.  A loss to Boston College and now a loss to Miami by 16.

5. Virginia (21-7)  At 8-6 in conference, Virginia is still a few wins behind Florida State.  Still lacks a high-quality win.

6. Miami (17-10)  Miami lost to Maryland earlier in the week, but rebounded nicely to take care of Florida State handily.  Needs a few more wins for March Madness to call.

7. North Carolina State (18-11).  The loss to North Carolina is excusable.  At this time of year, no excuse for losing to Clemson.

8. Clemson (13-13)  Clemson is now 7-7 in conference play.  They followed up the win over Virginia by beating Georgia Tech and North Carolina State.

9. Maryland (16-12)  After beating Miami, Maryland was primed to move up a few spots.  But then they lost to Georgia Tech.

10.  Virginia Tech (15-14)  This team has had more closes losses.  This past week was a 2-point loss to Virginia and an OT loss to Duke.

11. Pittsburgh (15-14)  Pittsburgh’s small momentum is over.  Hard to believe this team was once 13-2.

12. Wake Forest (13-15) They did beat Boston College by nearly 30.  Not a bad way to end the week.

13. Georgia Tech (10-18).  The losing streak is over.  And Georgia Tech beat a good Maryland team to accomplish that task.

14. Boston College (8-20)  Boston College had been showing some signs of life.  Losing by 29 to a sub .500 Wake Forest team is not such a sign.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Feb 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: February 20, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of February 20, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (27-1)  With road wins at Louisville and Rutgers (a difficult place to win), Syracuse continues their all-time best season start.  Upstart South Florida visits on Wednesday.

2. Duke (23-4) A very good win for the Blue Devils over North Carolina State.  Boston College, however, did not put up much of a fight at all.

3. North Carolina (23-4)  Challenging week ahead for the Tar Heels, with road trips to North Carolina State and Virginia.

4. Florida State (19-7)  Florida State got back to its winning ways against North Carolina State.  Duke visits on Thursday.

5. Virginia (20-7)  Virginia embarrassed Maryland on Saturday.  The Terps are used to embarrassment, having fired Ralph Friedgen and replaced him Randy Edsall.

6. North Carolina State (18-9).  Very tough week with losses to Duke and Florida State.  And next up is North Carolina.

7.  Miami (16-9)  Miami did the expected–losing to North Carolina and defeating Wake Forest.

8. Maryland (15-11)  Really outplayed by Virginia on Saturday.  Looking squarely at the NIT, barring a stretch run.

9.  Virginia Tech (15-12)  Two wins on the week for Virginia Tech, sandwiched around a loss by 1 point at Florida State.  A good week overall.

10.  Clemson (13-13)  A great win over Virginia moves Clemson up to 10.

11. Pittsburgh (15-12)  Pitt is back to losing often.

12. Boston College (8-19)  Boston College can keep its edge over Wake Forest by beating the Demon Deacons on Saturday.

13. Wake Forest (12-15) Wake Forest got another conference win–but it was against cellar-dweller Georgia Tech.

14. Georgia Tech (9-17).  Georgia Tech continues to lose.  The less said the better.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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