The Confidential

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26 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 5

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams. Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 39-9 start to the season.  It is going to get much worse this week.  Only 2 games are such that upsets are very unlikely.  A lot of surprising wins can happen.  On to the week 5 predictions:

September 29, 2012

Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-2), 12:00 p.m.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-2 in conference play, with both being very close games.  One has to think that Georgia Tech will take out its frustrations on this week’s sacrificial lamb, a directional Tennessee school.  Fortunately, Middle Tennessee is not in the Mac.  So Georgia Tech should win easily.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 40, Middle Tennessee 13.

North Carolina State (3-1) @ Miami (3-1), 12:00 p.m.  One of these teams is headed to a 4-1 record.  As such, this is a statement game for both teams.  Miami has given up a lot of points to the FBS teams on its schedule.  Then again, North Carolina State gave up about as many to Tennessee.  This is a close one, but the edge goes to the home team here.  Prediction: Miami 26, North Carolina State 21.

Duke (3-1) @ Wake Forest (3-1), 12:30 p.m.  Another great matchup for the ACC, as North Carolina rivals Duke and Wake Forest will battle to see who gets to 4-1.  While Duke is much improved this year, Wake Forest seems like the better team.  Again, do not be surprised by an upset.  It’s just hard to pick the road team here.  Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Duke 17.

#17 Clemson (3-1) @ Boston College (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Clemson struggled last year after the first loss and this makes Boston College a sneaky upset pick.  But Clemson is (hopefully) a better team from a mental standpoint this year.  If not, it’s going to be a long season.  Prediction: Clemson 34, Boston College 13.

Idaho (0-4) @ North Carolina (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  North Carolina has beaten the patsies and lost to the decent teams.  Idaho is not a decent team.  Prediction: North Carolina 38, Idaho 11.

Louisiana Tech (3-0) @ Virginia (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  Louisiana Tech averages more than 50 points a game.  Something is in the water this year in Louisiana–just look at what Louisiana-Monroe has been doing.  And La Tech destroyed Illinois.  Virginia has been very disappointing this year.  This is an upset special.  Louisiana Tech 33, Virginia 24.

Virginia Tech (3-1) @ Cincinnati (2-0), 3:30 p.m.   Cincinnati looked good while beating Pitt, who now looks to have righted the ship.  This is Cincinnati’s only real test until late October.  A win here could mean that the Bearcats are 6-0 when returning to conference play at that point.  The Hokies looked awful in losing to Pitt.  Cincinnati on the road will be a more hostile environment.  Sorry, Hokies.  This aint your year.  Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Virginia Tech 21.

#4 Florida State (4-0) @ South Florida (2-2), 6:00 p.m.  The good news for South Florida fans is that this game is not being played on a Thursday.  The bad news is that this game is being played against Florida State.  However, the Bulls should be fired up for this one.  Florida State has to avoid the inevitable let down that follows a game like Clemson.  This one may be close simply because the energy of the Bulls is too much early for the Seminoles to handle, requiring a second half rally to make it close.  Or Skip Holtz is just in over his head and the Seminoles will trash them.  Leaning towards the latter.  Prediction: Florida State 42, South Florida 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Sep 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 5

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 5 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (4-0): Alabama went easy on Florida Atlantic.  Good for them.  They still won by 30+.  Next up: Mississippi.
  2. Florida State (4-0): Nobody in the top 3 has a better win than Florida State, with the Clemson win.  They are outscoring opponents now by a mere 55-10.   Next up: @ South Florida.
  3. LSU (4-0):  The Tigers struggled to beat the Tigers.  Typical SEC game.  Oh yeah–the LSU Tigers beat the Auburn Tigers 12-10.  Next up: Towson.
  4. Oregon (4-0): The Ducks looked very good in dispatching Arizona.  They shut out a Rich Rodriguez-coached team.  Nice.  Next up: @ Washington State.
  5. Kansas State (4-0): Kansas State has beaten top 5 Oklahoma, in Oklahoma, and destroyed 3-1 Miami.  Anyone have a better resume?  Next up: Kansas.
  6. Georgia (4-0): Took Vanderbilt to the cleaners, 48-3.  Georgia is looking like a solid #3 team in the SEC.  Next up: Tennessee.
  7. Notre Dame (4-0): The Fighting Irish beat Navy in Ireland, Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan.  Pretty impressive set of wins.  Next up: Michigan.
  8. South Carolina (4-0): The Gamecocks had little trouble with Missouri.  Welcome to the SEC, Mizzou!   Next up: @ Kentucky.
  9. West Virginia (3-0): In its first real challenge of the season, West Virginia allowed Maryland to hang around.  Need to turn it up a notch in the Big XII.  Next up: Baylor.
  10. Stanford (3-0): Stanford got the week off.  They play a Thursday game against the Huskies in Washington this week.  Next up: @ Washington.
  11. Florida (4-0): The Gators are beating up on the middling teams of the SEC.  Up next is LSU on October 6th.  Next up: Idle.
  12. Louisville (4-0): Louisville was not exactly dominant against FIU–a team that Duke handled.  At least it was a road game.  Next up: @ Southern Mississippi.
  13. Clemson (3-1): Clemson did well against Florida State, all things considered.  They need to avoid the losing streak of last year though.  Next up: Boston College.
  14. Ohio State (4-0).  Ohio State still hasn’t really played anyone good.  This changes immediately.  Next up: @ Michigan State.
  15. TCU (3-0).  The Horned Frogs looked very good against Virginia.  Have you looked at TCU’s last four games on the season?  Wow.  Next up: @ SMU.
  16. Texas (3-0). Next up: @ Oklahoma State.
  17. Oklahoma (2-1): Next up: Idle.
  18. USC (3-1). Next up: @ Utah.
  19. Michigan State (3-1). Next up: Ohio State.
  20. Oregon State (2-0).  Next up: @ Arizona.
  21. Northwestern (4-0). Next up: Indiana.
  22. Mississippi State (4-0).  Next up: Idle.
  23. Virginia Tech (3-1). Next up: Cincinnati.
  24. Michigan (2-2): Next up: @ Purdue.
  25. Rutgers (4-0). Next up: Idle.

* * *

121. Syracuse (1-3).  Syracuse has played a brutal schedule of USC, Northwestern, and Minnesota (away).  Still, the only Orange victory was against FCS Stony Brook, 28-17.

122. Temple (1-2).  The win over Villanova was nice.  And Penn State and Maryland are improved.  Still–only victory is over an FCS foe.

123. Boston College (1-2).  Boston College has lost to Miami and Northwestern.  No shame in that.  The only victory is over FCS New Hampshire, not exactly a power.

124. Arkansas (1-3).  Arkansas has officially collapsed.  The only win is over an FCS foe.  With its starting QB, they are dominated by Rutgers.  This should not happen to a good SEC team at home.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
24 Sep 2012

ACC Football Rankings: September 24, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of September 24, 2012:

1.  Florida State (4-0)–The Confidential was wise to slide Florida State up over Clemson BEFORE the two teams met.  Florida State has proven that they are a legitimate national championship contender.

2. Clemson (3-1)–Clemson played well enough against Florida State to keep its #2 ranking.  The fact that Auburn played LSU so tough helps also.

3. Virginia Tech (3-1)–The Pitt loss remains a puzzle.  Beating Bowling Green was nice, but unimpressive.  Actually, the way the MAC performed on Saturday, it actually is impressive.

4. Miami (3-1)–The Hurricanes did what they needed to in beating Georgia Tech on the road.  That makes Miami 2-0 in road conference games.  That will work.

5. Wake Forest (3-1)–The Demon Deacons overcame the difficult loss to Florida State by beating Army, 49-37.  Not sure if giving up 89 points total in consecutive games is a stat that can continue.

6. North Carolina State (3-1)–The win over Citadel works.  Next up… Miami and Florida State.  Uh-oh.

7. Duke (3-1)–Duke has beaten exactly nobody.  But they have beaten three teams.

8. Georgia Tech (2-2)–Losing to Virginia Tech and Miami used to be a regular event for teams.  This year, both teams have head scratching losses that weaken the Georgia Tech profile.

9. Maryland (2-2)–Credit to Maryland for hanging tough at West Virginia.  They also deserve credit for playing 3 BCS conference foes in their OOC slate.

10. Virginia (2-2)–Virginia expected this season to be a good one, as demonstrated by games against Penn State and TCU.  So far, Virginia is really not looking like a top ACC team.

11.  Pitt (2-2)–Of the four 2-2 teams, Pitt has the worst loss.   Of the four 1-2 teams, Pitt has the best win.  Not going to drop them behind North Carolina.

12. North Carolina (2-2)–North Carolina has beaten Elon and East Carolina.  Not sure if there are any middling e-named teams left for them to play.

13. Syracuse (1-3)(tie)–Syracuse looked bad against Minnesota, but kept it to a reasonable 17-10 final tally.  Orange opponents are a combined 14-2 on the season… meaning 11-1 in games not involving the ‘Cuse.

13. Boston College (1-2)(tie)–Idle this week.  No reason to separate the two ACC rivals.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
23 Sep 2012
3 Comments

ACC Football Week 4 Recap

Well, with Week 4 in the books, here is how it all went down in ACC-land:

GOOD NEWS:

Florida State looks to be IS for real.  The Seminoles may not have been able to hold Clemson to just a few points, but Clemson is far from Murray State.  The important thing is that Florida State did not squander the opportunity to take it to the next level.  Giving up 37 points to Clemson is tough to swallow as a good effort–but Clemson is a really good offensive team.  Too many playmakers to not be.  EJ Manuel and the Seminoles putting up 49 points is a nice sign too.  It’s all good for another week in Tallahassee after the 49-37 victory.

Clemson also established itself as the #2 team in the ACC with its very competitive performance against FSU.  Recall that Clemson did not fare well the last time it played in Florida.  The offense is for real.  The defense giving up 49 points is a concern.  But do not expect Clemson to finish 8-4 this year.  They are a legitimate threat to stay in the top 15 all year.

Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Duke, and North Carolina all took care of their overmatched opponents.  Ask Pitt about how it feels to get upset.  Actually, let’s give Pitt some props for defeating Gardner-Webb by a comfortable margin this week as well.

Wake Forest’s 49-37 victory over Army was good in that the Demon Deacons got the needed win.  The 517 yards of offense was pretty nice too.

THE OK NEWS:

The Miami-Georgia Tech game was one of mixed emotions.  On the one hand, Miami’s 42-36 win in overtime means that the Hurricanes are now 2-0 in conference and 3-1 overall.  And they have yet to play a home conference game.  And that Kansas State loss looks a touch better now that KSU beat Oklahoma.  But Miami’s gain is Georgia Tech‘s loss.  The Yellow Jackets were down big, rallied nice, and then lost.  At 2-2 and 0-2 in conference play, things are looking a bit down right now.  Still, there is plenty of time to rally for a nice bowl game.

Maryland may not have won, but nobody expected the game to be close.  A 31-21 loss to the #8 Mountaineers is rather plainly a moral victory for the Terps.  Take it and run.

THE BAD NEWS:

Virginia was a very good team last year.  This year… not so much.  While Virginia was going to be an underdog against ranked TCU, a 27-7 loss is disappointing.  The hope was that the game would be competitive.  It was not.

Syracuse looked overmatched and ineffective against Minnesota, losing 17-10.  While Syracuse’s opponents are a combined 14-2, it would have been nice for the Orange to be 2-2 hitting its bye week.  It is not.

On to Week #4…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 4

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.

Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 28-8 start to the season.  On to week 4,where things will get a little tougher matchup-wise:

September 22, 2012

Bowling Green (1-2) @ Virginia Tech (2-1), noon.  Virginia Tech has to be embarrassed by last week.  The last time the Hokies were embarrassed (James Madison), they won 11 straight.  You cannot predict a loss here.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Bowling Green 14.

Maryland (2-1) @ #8 West Virginia (2-0), noon.   The records say “close game.”  The names have historically suggested “close game.”  While West Virginia has played nobody so far, Maryland’s 2-1 is more imaginary than a cartoon character seeing a mirage of an oasis in the desert.  The only question is whether West Virginia agrees to a running clock in the second half.  Prediction: West Virginia 49, Maryland 10.

Virginia (2-1) @ #17 TCU (2-0), noon.  Before the season, this looked like an upset special.  But Virginia has been underwhelming.  Sure, TCU has to play at 11:00 a.m. local time.  That might help keep it close.  Prediction: TCU 30, Virginia 20.

Army (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-1), 12:30 p.m.  Wake Forest need not be embarrassed by last week’s loss to Florida State.  They need to forget about it and move on.  This is a team that can win 8 or 9 games if things go right.  It all starts against Army.  Prediction: Wake Forest 21, Army 10.

Miami (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-1), 3:00 p.m.  Georgia Tech narrowly lost to a now-questionable Virginia Tech, and looked great in pasting Virginia.  Miami was obliterated by Kansas State, who was only OK against North Texas.  Miami did beat Boston College.  Everything about this suggests Georgia Tech.  Hmmm…. but the Confidential would never place an actual bet on this game.  A hunch that Miami will win–there always seems to be one Georgia Tech or Miami game that is entirely unpredictable.  This may be it.  Despite that, with all meekness and shame, the official prediction is Georgia Tech 38, Miami 34 (OT).

Gardner-Webb (0-3) @ Pitt (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Given that few teams have ever lost to an FCS team once, the odds of Pitt losing to two FCS teams one year is pretty slim.  The win over Va Tech means that if the impossible does happen, the coaching staff would survive to the following Monday.  What would have been an “absolute must win” becomes merely a “must win.”  They have to, right?  Prediction: Pitt 35, Gardner-Webb 10.

East Carolina (2-1) @ North Carolina (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Once upon a time there was a colony named Carolina.  And then it divided into North Carolina and East Carolina.  And that’s how East Carolina became the 14th colony.  Look it up.  Anyway, returning to reality… North Carolina rallied nicely against Louisville and only barely lost to Wake Forest.  East Carolina has looked decent too.  This could be a very good game.  Prediction: North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21.

Memphis (0-3) @ Duke (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  This game is the opposite of FSU-Clemson.  Memphis is one of the worst football teams in FBS.  Anyone willing to bet lunch money on them being a top FCS team?  Did not think so.   Memphis has lost to three teams called Tennessee-Martin, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State (bonus points if you know which one was the FCS school).  Meanwhile, Duke has hardly been a football powerhouse.  But Duke has scored 50 points per game in its two wins.  That’s 50 per game!  Big 10 basketball teams wish they could score like that!  No reason for that trend to stop now.  Prediction: Duke 50, Memphis 21 17 20ish (does it matter?).

Citadel (3-0) @ North Carolina State (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  North Carolina State is a good FBS team.  Citadel (is it The Citadel or not?) is a good FCS team.  This one may be closer than desired for a while, but NC State should pull away right about the time everyone is ready to switch over to the big game of the night.  Prediction: North Carolina State 34, Citadel 17.

Syracuse (1-2) @ Minnesota (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Minnesota’s three wins are not that impressive: UNLV in OT, New Hampshire, and Western Michigan.  But Syracuse’s one win was even less impressive, and that U.S.C. loss now looks less like a “moral victory.”  Nobody should be surprised if Syracuse wins.  But the Confidential has to ignore the heart and recognize the brain saying “home team wins.”  Prediction: Minnesota 31, Syracuse 28.

#10 Clemson (3-0) @ #4 Florida State (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Clemson looked great in defeating Auburn (suspect win now), Ball State (meh), and Furman (sub-meh).  Florida State has looked outstanding in defeating Murray State (yawn), Savannah State (running clock anyone?), and Wake Forest (nice).  Florida State has outscored its opponents by something like 176-3.  They are on pace to give up 12 points.  14 if they win out.  When Florida State was great, it was defense.  The glory days ended in 2001.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State allowed 200 or more points in just 4 seasons.  And three of those were 206 points or less.  See here.  From 2001 to 2011, Florida State allowed less than 200 points only twice.  You get the picture.

The Confidential appreciates that Clemson has two mega-playmakers in Boyd and Watkins.  But Florida State should be able to, at the very least, contain them.  The real question will be whether Florida State can put up points against Clemson.  Given that FSU is averaging 60 points a game, while Clemson allowed 23 PPG to Auburn and Ball State, FSU should be able to score enough.  This is FSU’s time to return to glory.  The Seminoles just need to reach out and grab it, avoiding the self-inflicted wounds of the past.  Also, if Swofford has any common sense at all… Florida State should get a few calls this time.  Prediction: Florida State 34, Clemson 23.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
18 Sep 2012
2 Comments

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 3

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 4 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (3-0): Alabama finally gets the #1 spot in this poll.  Apologies for the delay in recognizing USC’s flaws.  52-0 over Arkansas?  Next up: Florida Atlantic.
  2. Florida State (3-0): The Seminoles have beaten their three opponents by a combined 176-3.  A huge test against Clemson looms.  Next up: Clemson.
  3. LSU (3-0):  The Tigers played Oregon last year, and then Washington and Idaho this year.  Is Montana next?  Next up: @ Auburn.
  4. Oklahoma (2-0): Oklahoma had the week off.  Good for them.  Next up: Kansas State.
  5. Oregon (3-0): The Ducks haven’t really beaten anyone yet.  But it is hard to see anyone being favored to beat them in the Pac-12.  Next up: Arizona.
  6. Clemson (3-0): Clemson handled Furman as easily as they should.  See how that works Arkansas and Auburn?   Next up: @ Florida State.
  7. Georgia (3-0): The Bulldogs got to beat up on Florida Atlantic.  Mission accomplished.  Next up: Vanderbilt.
  8. West Virginia (2-0): Some guy named Jim Madison could not beat West Virginia.  The Mountaineers need to be tested.  Next up: Maryland.
  9. South Carolina (3-0): The Gamecocks dispatched with U.A.B. with little stress.  Now they get to host the Tigers.  Guess which one!!!   Next up: Missouri.
  10. Kansas State (3-0): Kansas State did OK against North Texas.  A bit of a let down after dominating Miami.  Things get real tough this week.  Next up: @ Oklahoma.
  11. Michigan (2-1): As good as Alabama has looked, and as poor as the Big 10 has looked, is Michigan the class of the conference?  We’ll find out soon.  Next up: @ Notre Dame.
  12. Notre Dame (2-1): The Fighting Irish celebrated their ACC partnership by defeating Sparty on the road.  They return this week to host Big Brother.  Next up: Michigan.
  13. Louisville (3-0): Which Louisville team should be judged–the one that jumped up 35-6 against UNC or the one that narrowly won?  No idea either.  Next up: Florida International
  14. Stanford (3-0): With another win over USC, Stanford moves up into the top 15.  No Gerhart, no Luck, no matter.  Next up: @ Washington.
  15. Florida (3-0): The Gators may or may not be “back,” but they are 2-0 in conference.  A win at Tennessee is always nice.  Next up: Kentucky.
  16. Texas (3-0). Next up: @ Oklahoma State.
  17. USC (2-1). Next up: California.
  18. Ohio State (3-0).  Next up: UAB.
  19. TCU (3-0).  Next up: Virginia.
  20. Michigan State (2-1). Next up: E. Michigan.
  21. UCLA (3-0). Next up: Oregon State.
  22. Northwestern (3-0). Next up: South Dakota.
  23. Arizona (3-0).  Next up: @ Oregon.
  24. Mississippi State (3-0).  Next up: South Alabama.
  25. Virginia Tech (2-1). Next up: Bowling Green.

* * *

121.  Kentucky (1-2).  Losing to a Sun Belt program?  SEC teams should not lose to Sun Belt programs.  What are you doing with all that TV revenue and basketball gate cash???

122. Arkansas (1-2).  Wow… 52-0 to Alabama AT HOME?  A week after dropping a game to an FCS foe?  Arkansas is in trouble right now.  Big time.

123. Kansas (1-2).  While Kansas played well against TCU, all things considered, they are still 1-2 and the teams behind them both won.

124.  Colorado (0-3).  There is only one team in all of the BCS conferences that is winless.  It’s Colorado.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
17 Sep 2012
5 Comments

ACC Football Rankings: September 17, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Unfortunately, after a tough week, most teams have their spot in the standings because of what the other teams did–not because they earned it.  Oh well… this is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of September 17, 2012:

1.  Florida State (3-0)–The Confidential does not like sliding Clemson down coming off a win, but Florida State just destroyed a good Wake Forest team.  On the season, the Seminoles have outscored their opponents 176-3.  Clemson can prove the Confidential wrong on the field.

2. Clemson (3-0)–Clemson is the only other undefeated team left in the ACC.  And they travel to Florida State this week.  Speaking the obvious, only one team leaves that game undefeated.  With this #2 ranking, the Confidential is leaning Florida State.

3. Georgia Tech (2-1)–Georgia Tech gets this spot by default.  They lost to Virginia Tech on the road… true.  But Va Tech lost to a reeling Pitt squad.  And Georgia Tech looked great against Virginia.

4. Virginia Tech (2-1)–No excuse for the Pitt loss.  This is a game that Virginia Tech has to win if the ACC is Virginia Tech wants to someday be listed among the “kings” of college football.  Another September disappointment.

5. Wake Forest (2-1)–The Demon Deacons just lost 52-0.  And they get the edge over other teams.  Why?  The best win–over North Carolina.  Ugh.

6. North Carolina State (2-1)–A coin flip separates all these 2-1 teams.  North Carolina State’s loss to Tennessee is not awful, and the win over UConn is nice.  Still…

7. Miami (2-1)–Miami’s implosion against Kansas State still leaves a stench.  But Virginia barely beat a very down Penn State team.

8. Virginia (2-1)–Virginia looked vulnerable against Penn State.  Then they proved it against Georgia Tech.

9. Duke (2-1)–Duke was terrible against Stanford, but they do have 2 wins.  After letting its coach lose to his former school, Maryland deserves to be at the bottom of the 2-1 teams.

10. Maryland (2-1)–See above.  Maryland does not deserve to be ranked higher than anyone else that is 2-1.

11.  Pitt (1-2)–Of the four 1-2 teams, Pitt has the worst loss.   Of the four 1-2 teams, Pitt has the best win.  Edge to Pitt.

12. North Carolina (1-2)–The remaining three ACC teams have only beaten an FCS foe, while losing to two BCS-level teams.  The Tar Heels were most convincing in their win.

13. Syracuse (1-2)(tie)–Syracuse won and dropped several spots in the standings.  Why?  Because they beat an FCS foe by 11 points and USC looks to be a shadow of what was expected.

13. Boston College (1-2)(tie)–Boston College doesn’t deserve to be #14.  They lost to Northwestern on the road, while Syracuse lost at home.  However, BC lost to Miami at home, while Syracuse lost to USC on a neutral site.  Although BC beat its FCS for with more ease, Syracuse had to play its FCS foe after the emotional USC game.  So there it is… a tie.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
16 Sep 2012

ACC Football Week 3 Recap

Well, with Week 3 in the books, here is how it all went down in ACC-land:

GOOD NEWS:

Florida State looks to be for real.  The Seminoles destroyed Wake Forest, 52-0, to avenge last year’s disappointing loss.  If you are keeping score at home, Florida State has scored 176 points and allowed 3.  That will work.  Things get tougher next week with Clemson visiting–but it’s looking like the 1990s for the Seminoles.  This result was awful for Wake Forest, but it’s better for the ACC to have Florida State return to its dominating ways than have a bunch of teams win 7 games.  And Wake Forest will be fine this year–this was not a win anyone should have expected.

Speaking of Clemson, the Tigers got to 3-0 by soundly defeating Furman, 41-7.  This sets up a huge matchup next week between what is looking like the class of the ACC–Clemson and Florida State.

Georgia Tech showed that it is a real player this year too, defeating Virginia 56-20.  As with Wake Forest, Virginia must be hugely disappointed with the effort.  Coming off last week’s nailbiter with reeling Penn State, Virginia fans had to see this coming.  For Georgia Tech, however, this win suggests that the Yellow Jackets’ offense is going to be prolific.

Miami got back to its winning ways with a 38-10 victory over Bethune-Cookman, which is nice.  Duke also moves to 2-1 with a 54-17 win over North Carolina Central.  And North Carolina State is also 2-1 after defeating South Alabama 31-7.

THE OK NEWS:

Give credit to Pittsburgh for pulling off a major turnaround and defeating Virginia Tech, 35-17.  You saw this coming?  You, sir, are a liar.  You most certainly did not see this coming.  Virginia Tech does get upset every so often in September and Pitt has talent.  But an 18-point victory for Pitt after how the first two weeks of the season transpired is just astonishing.  This would be better news, except that one now wonders about Virginia Tech.  Can the ACC let Notre Dame represent the Coastal division this year?

Syracuse finally got its first win of the season, beating Stony Brook 28-17.  That score is too close to call it “good news.”  Syracuse did put up 500+ yards of offense and Stony Brook is a very very good FCS team.  Still, you want your FCS game scores to be more like what Duke and Miami did than this.  Syracuse joins Pitt at 1-2.

THE BAD NEWS:

The Confidential suspected that Maryland was not as good as its 2-0 record suggested.  The Confidential suspected that Maryland would lose by less than a touchdown.  UConn won by 3, 24-21.   So it goes for the Terrapins.

Louisville jumped out to a 36-7 halftime lead over North Carolina, but credit the Tar Heels for making a game of it.  The final score of 39-34 shows just how much of a rally it was.  Still, North Carolina now drops to 1-2.  And this means that the 2012 Big East went 3-0 against the 2012 A.C.C. in Week 3.  Ugh.   Thankfully the ACC had a great week off the field.

On to Week #4…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
13 Sep 2012
1 Comment

ACC Football Predictions for Week 3

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.

Last week was a bit better at 10-3… making it an 18-7 start to the season.  On to week 3:

September 15, 2012

Wake Forest (2-0) @ #5 Florida State (2-0), noon.  Florida State has not played a competent foe yet, and Wake Forest has had the Seminoles’ number.  Still, this might be the year that Florida State returns to the glory days of the 1990s.  Prediction: Florida State 30, Wake Forest 17.

#13 Virginia Tech (2-0) @ Pittsburgh (0-2), noon.  Pitt is a disaster right now.  They looked woefully undercoached against Cincinnati.  Virginia Tech usually does not have that problem.  This is a bit of a “rivarly” game, so maybe Pitt will rally.  Nah.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 28, Pitt 13.

Bethune-Cookman (2-0 FCS) @ Miami (1-1), noon.  Miami was exposed by Kansas State.  But the Hurricanes will protect their home turf against this FCS foe.  Prediction: Miami 40, Bethune-Cookman 10.

Connecticut (1-1) @ Maryland (2-0), 12;30 p.m.  Look, UConn looked offensively incompetent against NC State.  And Maryland looked very good against Temple.  Odds are that NC State is much better than Temple though.  Prediction: UConn 17, Maryland 12.

Furman (0-2) @ #11 Clemson (2-0), 3:00 p.m.  Clemson looked very good against Auburn and Ball State.  And now Sammy is back.  Going to get ugly for Furman.  Prediction: Clemson 45, Furman 9.

Virginia (2-0) @ Georgia Tech (1-1), 3:30 p.m.  Georgia Tech looked pretty good in a losing cause against Va Tech.  Virginia looked pretty bad in a winning cause against Penn State.  These both seem like 8 win teams, so we’ll give the edge to the home team.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia 13.

North Carolina (1-1) @ #19 Louisville (2-0), 3:30 p.m.  Louisville is the premiere team in the Big East, which is a little like being the thinnest person in Wal*Mart.  But North Carolina is not yet ready for prime time.  The heart says upset, but the brain says that the Cardinals are not ready to be upset just yet.  Prediction: Louisville 28, North Carolina 17.

Northwestern (2-0) @ Boston College (1-1), 3:30 p.m.  Northwestern is willing to play any non-ND, non-USC private school.  Syracuse, Vandy, and now B.C.  Really, Northwestern has a chance to be a top Big 10 team.  Boston College is still trying to find itself.  Prediction: Northwestern 27, Boston College 21.

Stony Brook (2-0) @ Syracuse (0-2), 4:00 p.m.  Wow, how can the Confidential pick an 0-2 team over a 2-0 team?  Well, Stony Brook beat Pace last week.  Syracuse was playing the NFL’s Pac-12’s Trojans.  Syracuse struggles with FCS teams and Stony Brook is a good one.  Prediction: Syracuse 38, Stony Brook 21.

South Alabama (1-1) @ North Carolina State (1-1), 6:00 p.m.  After struggling to move the ball against a stout UConn defense, NC State gets an easier foe this week.  Much easier.  Prediction: NC State 37, South Alabama 13.

North Carolina Central (1-1) @ Duke (1-1), 7:00 p.m.  NC v Duke?  Nope.  Just NCC v Duke.  Oh well.  Duke should win and probably will.  Yawn.  Prediction: Duke 30, NC Central 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
11 Sep 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 3

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 3 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. USC (2-0): USC survived its East Coast trip to play Syracuse.  The USC offense looks simply unstoppable, unless they stop themselves of course.  Next up: @ Stanford.
  2. Alabama (2-0): Alabama is trending as the #1 team in most polls.  After Michigan struggled to beat Air Force at home, are we sure Syracuse is not better than the Wolverines?  Next up: @ Arkansas.
  3. Florida State (2-0): The Seminoles have beaten their two creampuffs by a combined 124-3.  And they invoked the mercy rule this weekend, costing them nearly half the game.  Next up: Wake Forest.
  4. LSU (2-0):  The Tigers looked great against Washington.  But Pac-12 teams generally have trouble heading East.  What chance does Idaho have?  Next up: Idaho.
  5. Oklahoma (2-0): The Sooners looked fine against Florida A&M.  So the fan base has to be a little less nervous now.  Next up: Idle.
  6. Michigan State (2-0): Sparty is going to have to carry the B1G this year.  They looked the part against Central Michigan.  Next up: Notre Dame.
  7. Clemson (2-0): Clemson took care of Ball State in Week 2.  This week Sammy Watkins returns to face Furman.  Uh-oh for Furman.   Next up: Furman.
  8. Oregon (2-0): The Ducks coasted in the second half against Fresno State.  After all, it was 35-6 at the half.  Next up: Tennessee Tech.
  9. Georgia (2-0): The Bulldogs looked very good in toppling Missouri in its SEC opener.  Nice rally in the second half.  Next up: Florida Atlantic.
  10. West Virginia (1-0): That Oliver Luck is a genius.  An extra week to prepare for James Madison will pay dividends.  Look out Oklahoma.  Next up: James Madison.
  11. South Carolina (2-0): Looked great in defeating East Carolina to go 2-0.  UAB lost to Troy State in its opener.  Ugh.  Next up: U.A.B.
  12. Virginia Tech (2-0): Yes, that’s three ACC teams in the top 12.  The Hokies took care of Austin Peay, which has not always been easy for the program in September. Next up: @Pittsburgh.
  13. Kansas State (2-0): Beating Miami at home was nice, destroying Miami by 39 points was a great sign.  Collin Klein and Heisman showed up in a lot of post-game commentary too.  Next up: North Texas.
  14. Michigan (1-1): Michigan did enough to beat Air Force.  But it was hardly dominating.  We’ll give them the edge over sanctioned B1G foe Ohio State until otherwise is proven.  Next up: UMass.
  15. Louisville (2-0): How about a little love for the Big East’s best team?  Teddy Bridgewater looks like the real deal too.  Next up: North Carolina.
  16. Texas (2-0).  Next up: @ Mississippi.
  17. Ohio State (2-0).  Next up: California.
  18. TCU (2-0).  Next up: @ Kansas.
  19. Stanford (2-0).  Next up: USC.
  20. Notre Dame (2-0).  Next up: @ Michigan State.
  21. UCLA (2-0). Next up: Houston.
  22. Florida (2-0).  Next up: @ Tennessee.
  23. Tennessee (2-0). Next up: Florida.
  24. Northwestern (2-0). Next up: Boston College.
  25. Arizona (2-0).  Next up: South Carolina State.

* * *

121.  Kansas (1-1).  Sure, Syracuse, Auburn, and Vandy are 0-2, but those teams have only played BCS-level opponents.  Of the 1-1 teams, Kansas has the least impressive resume.  Prove us wrong against TCU, Jayhawks.  Feel free.

122. Penn State (0-2).  Hey, the Nittany Lions looked pretty good against UVA.  Their poor kicker had a terrible day, but their primary kicker bailed out on the team.  Could have won.

123. Pittsburgh (0-2).  Pitt looked awful against Cincinnati.  There is talent on this team, but the talent looks lost.  Is Temple the premiere program in Pennsylvania?  We’ll find out as Temple plays both Pitt and PSU this year.

124.  Colorado (0-2).  After losing to Colorado State, Colorado lost to an FCS foe, Sacramento State.  To add insult to injury, Colorado State lost to an FCS foe, North Dakota State, 22-7.  Utter failure throughout the state.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,

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