The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the tag “conference comparisons”

20 Feb 2013
18 Comments

Big 10 Expansion Petition

Until something more concrete is conceived, please consider signing and sharing this petition against Big 10 expansion:

https://www.change.org/petitions/the-ncaa-presidents-especially-big-10-presidents-stop-the-big-10-from-continuing-its-expansion#share

Whether you are a Big 10 fan that hates the addition of mediocre athletic institutions like Rutgers/Maryland and are otherwise sick of money driving things… or whether you are a fan of an ACC school who hates the idea of joining a midwestern conference… something needs to be done to give the fans power back.  We are the ones that make college athletics interesting, appeal to advertisers, etc.  If we stop caring, the money WILL GO DOWN.  Please stop giving us reasons to care less…

UPDATE: Even Frank the Tank is beginning to wonder about fire behind the rumored smoke.  http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2013/02/19/b1g-dirty-south-expansion/     Do not complain if something goes down and you did not share your voice before it happened.  The University presidents are too elitist to care, but maybe trustees will hear the message and wonder whether short-term $$$ is worth the long-term move to ambivalence by the fan bases.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
12 Feb 2013
11 Comments

Conference Realignment–ACC Needs to be Wary of History Repeating Itself

Frank the Tank has a new entry for your perusal.  In this latest blog entry, the opinion is that Fox, rather than ESPN, is responsible for the demise of the Big East.  The Confidential disagrees.  Moreover, the Confidential cannot help but think that the ACC needs to be very wary of the destruction of the Big East to prevent, to the extent possible, the demise of our great conference.

As a preliminary matter, there is no doubt that Fox’s entry into the sports networking landscape has been a contributing factor.  If nothing else, the partnership with the Big 10 has dramatically altered the college sports landscape.   Fox’s role in conference realignment is obvious.

But the demise of the Big East began long before the loss of Rutgers, Maryland/Louisville, Notre Dame, and the Catholic-7.  Rather, the demise began with the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse.  And, really, the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse began with the inability of ESPN and the Big East to negotiate a restructured deal.  While ESPN was willing to ride the Longhorn Network into town to save the Big XII, ESPN did not bother to do anything to save the Big East from demise.  Rather, it allowed (directed?) it’s partner, the ACC, to take two of the Big East’s most valuable properties–Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  Even if Fox was behind every other move that decimated the Big East (see West Virginia, TCU, Maryland, and Rutgers), the reality is that ESPN never stepped up to the plate to save the Big East.

As ESPN continues to lose the rights to major college programs, one wonders if ESPN is going to go the route of MTV.  Once, MTV showed videos… with an occasional non-video show sprinkled in.  At some point, MTV stopped showing videos.  And it’s been decades since this author has cared about MTV.  Every pass through revealed less about “music” and more about reality TV.  Presumably, MTV is still profitable and pleasing to its owners.  Is ESPN going to follow suit and devote more resources to news & shows where reporters yell at each other?   It certainly runs contrary to the prevailing logic that live sports are among the best television products out there because people cannot fast forward through the commercials.

In any event, the question that begs is whether ESPN will step up to the plate to “save the ACC.”   ESPN helped save the Big XII.  But, with every program that moves from the ACC to the Big XII or Big 10, ESPN will lose the exclusive rights to that school.  And one wonders whether Fox will be content to allow ESPN to share in the Big XII and Big 10.  If this is a business battle between Fox and ESPN, Fox seems to be winning.  The Big East was “collateral damage” in that battle.  The ACC needs to ensure that ESPN does not view the ACC as collateral damage.  It is unclear exactly what the ACC can do… but at least being wary of ESPN and history repeating itself is a very small step one.

What do YOU think?  Is ESPN working for or against the ACC these days?


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Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Feb 2013
17 Comments

The ACC’s Lack of a Grant of Rights Needs to Be Addressed

The Confidential is on record as disagreeing with the notion that the Big XII’s grant of rights is impenetrable.  That being said, the Confidential also disagrees with the notion that a grant of rights is merely an exit fee with lipstick.  Depending on the legalese, a grant of rights should be a property transfer, made voluntarily and for consideration, by a school.  It should be much much stronger than an exit fee.  As such, the ACC needs to address its current perceived weakness relative to the Big XII by pursuing, successfully, a grant of rights of some length.

The response is always that a grant of rights is not wanted by the membership.  Who does not want it?  If UNC, Duke, and Virginia do not want the grant of rights, then that tells you everything you need to know about the viability of the ACC.  Maryland did not like the exit fee and now it is in litigation with the ACC.  If these three schools are not bound to each other, and willing to reduce that to paper, then the ACC is doomed.

If those three agreed, one would have to think that Syracuse, Wake Forest, BC, and North Carolina State would be on board immediately.  For the most part, these schools are at risk for being left out when the chairs reshuffle.  Pitt could dabble with the Big XII, but the Big 10 is not an option, so Pitt should also be in favor.  While Virginia Tech–like North Carolina State–is rumored to be attractive to the SEC, it is unclear that the SEC is actually interested in these schools are their first choice.  If UNC and UVa went the Big 10 route, then perhaps a marriage would make sense.  But as long as UVa and UNC are solidly ACC, it is difficult to believe that a separation would be desired by Va Tech and NC State.

So that leaves Georgia Tech, Miami, Clemson, and FSU.  All four duplicate SEC markets (Georgia, South Carolina, Florida).  The Big 10 is not at all likely for Clemson alone.  Georgia Tech, FSU and Miami are possible, but have many reasons that they do not fit the Big 10.  At least not in the same way that North Carolina and Virginia do–proximity and academics.  Plus, Georgia Tech is a clear also-ran in its market.

The Big XII complicates things.  All four schools could make more money in the Big XII.  Probably.  It is unclear why Clemson and Georgia Tech would make $26+M per year for the Big XII.  Again, both are secondary schools in their markets.  And it is not like South Carolina is a big market.  Miami and Florida State are a different story.  Together, they would give the Big XII a strong Eastern flank and presence throughout Florida.  It would likely be worth it for the Big XII to take these two (or perhaps all four).  So these are the four truly “problem” schools.  At the same time, if the ACC had a legitimate plan to increase overall revenue, it is unclear that the monetary difference would be worth the move.  Certainly not in the same sense as Maryland’s move to the Big 10 (a relative no-brainer for a mismanaged athletic department that needs money badly and had the one thing the Big 10 needs–a new market).  But joining the Big XII would mean a grant of rights.  So, while it is unlikely that the SEC would come calling for Florida State or Clemson, a grant of rights with the Big XII would take them out of consideration.  Of course, a grant of rights with the ACC does the same thing.  So, yeah, the hesitance is there.

So this is the point where the ACC and ESPN need to sit down and talk seriously.  Without a grant of rights, the ACC is at a real risk of dissolving or turning into something unrecognizable.  If that happens, the good ACC markets will be divided between the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC.  If 10 teams leave the ACC, but only two go to the SEC (i.e. 6 to the Big XII and 2 to the Big 10), that means that 80% of those schools will shift over to conferences with a significant Fox relationship.  If Fox throws more money at these conferences, ESPN will be marginalized further with the lucrative college sports market (and ad revenue generated).  If ESPN is cool with that, so be it.  But if ESPN is not, then they need to step up to the plate and agree to something to make the ACC stronger.   And, by stronger, the ACC needs something tangible to convince everyone in the ACC to be willing to sign a grant of rights.

The length does not matter.  A five-year grant of rights would be enough to at least quiet the realignment talk a little.  It is shorter than the Big XII’s current grant of rights, meaning that schools with an eye on other conferences will still have an edge.  But it would allow for a bit of a “cease fire” and chance for the ACC to rebrand itself with its new additions.

If anyone does not want a grant of rights for even a relative short period, then it is clear that the ACC is not long for this world.  It is what it is.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
04 Feb 2013
2 Comments

Recruiting rankings matter, but so does depth

National Signing Day is mere days away.  For all intents and purposes, this is college footballs “free agency and draft” all rolled into one.  Your roster is set, the foundation for the next few seasons has been laid.  For an elite program, a few missed recruits can mean the difference between playing for crystal and playing for sugar or oranges… or worse, tires [take your pick of the lot of subpar bowl games].

If you believe what you read on FSU message boards, the sky is falling and football may not be played in September.  That may only be a half-truth; the sky seems to be falling but football will certainly be played at Doak Campbell Stadium come September.

So, why’s the sky falling in Tallahassee?  Florida State is on the verge of a recruiting misstep; one that might cost Jimbo Fisher his job.  According to the major recruiting services, FSU has finished with top 10 classes in the past few cycles.  However, when you look a bit deeper you notice a glaring issue.  Sure, there are five and four star skill players abound, but where are the offensive lineman?  Of the offensive lineman Florida State recruited last year, neither of them are on the team.  Granted, both were junior college transfers, but that means that Jimbo and Co. are playing with fire.  Not having depth at any position can cost you, but not having depth at offensive line can severely limit your potency on offense.  Many Florida State insiders refer to the loss against North Carolina State as an example of this; our NFL-bound right tackle, Menelik Watson, missed that game.  It turned out to be the Seminoles worst offensive performance of the year – the offense looked pedestrian at times and failed to convert on many third and shorts that could have clinched the game for the Seminoles.

Going back several years, recruiting offensive line has been an issue at Florida State.  Frankly, it doesn’t make sense.  Florida State has all of the other pieces on offense: a great offensive mind in Jimbo Fisher and blue chip quarterbacks, running backs, and receivers. A strong offensive line should be part of that equation but it has truly been anything but.  The rumor is that five and four star offensive linemen aren’t terribly receptive to Rick Trickett’s allegedly abusive coaching style.  So, maybe he thrives on “project” type players that are willing to work a little harder and be subjected to his coaching style.  However, it’s not just the quality of recruits, but the quantity.  Remember, Florida State did not retain either of the lineman it recruited last year.  During this year’s cycle, while much is expected to occur between now and Wednesday, Florida State has 2 confirmed offensive line commitments and one tight end that will likely transition to tackle.  What may hurt the most is that a long-time offensive line commitment, Austin Golson, decommitted just barely a week before signing day.

Of course, the irony of the situation is that the first string quarterback is Clint Trickett, the offensive line coach’s son.  Clint is not the most mobile of quarterbacks and is more of a pocket passer.  If his dad, Rick, doesn’t hold up his end of the bargain, he may actually wind up costing his son the opportunity to be the quarterback at Florida State.

Florida State is aggressively recruiting two offensive lineman, 4-star Denver Kirkland and 3-star Wilson Bell, and both are very likely to join Florida State on Wednesday.  However, if they don’t, I wouldn’t  be surprised by Florida State’s struggles in the future.  It’s like having a donut (spare tire) on a Ferrari; amazing potential, but perilously limited by a lack of quality and depth on the offensive line.

Posted by Duke in ACC only, Football, FSU Correspondent, Opinion, Recruiting and tagged , , , , ,
01 Feb 2013
8 Comments

ACC Winter Meetings Update- Future ACC Basketball Tournament Sites

Finally, we have some news out of the ACC Winter Meetings! Swofford has been FAR too quiet the past few days despite all of the realignment rumors that have been picking up speed in this blog and others. Fortunately, as any ACC member knows, silence from John Swofford and the ACC can be a good thing. HE’S UP TO SOMETHING.

ESPN just posted an article regarding  ACC Basketball Tournament sites and the possibility of future tournaments in New York City. What do you guys think about that? While I’m an NC native and a current resident, I’ve never liked the tournament being in Greensboro. Sure, I love the history, and the location is pretty convenient for me, but it just hasn’t seemed like the right place for the past few years. The league’s membership has grown and changed and so has its footprint. The location of its tournament must reflect that.

I’ve recently been a proponent of the conference expanding to 16 teams. Once we got beyond 10, scheduling  just became too difficult and unwieldy. With 16 teams, you can split up into four pods and play 9 conference games in football. That means you can play your entire pod (3 games), another full pod (4 games) and half of a third pod (2 games) each year. Under that configuration, teams would be able to see each other at least once every other year and play a game at every team’s home at least once every four years. That’s way better than things are now. Under the new scheduling rotation and current divisional model, it may take UNC up to 8 years to play Wake Forest, a longtime rival who’s campus is just 80 miles down the road from Chapel Hill. So how would these pods look?

Tobacco Road                    Deep South                Mid-Atlantic              North

North Carolina                        Miami                              Virginia                           Boston College

NC State                                     Florida State                  Virginia Tech              Syracuse

Wake Forest                             Georgia Tech                 Pittsburgh                    Louisville

Duke                                            Clemson                           West Virginia              Notre Dame

You’ll notice that I have West Virginia and Notre Dame in there. I believe that WVU has always belonged in the ACC and that ND WILL be forced to join a conference at some point. Its conference of choice is the ACC. They have proven this by taking partial membership with us over the Big 12 and rejecting the B10 on numerous occasions. If superconferences were to be logically created (and they probably won’t be), then the Big 12 would be the next to fall (not the ACC) and WVU would be free to join without the grant of rights restriction (which could just as easily be broken if 5 or more Big 12 members wanted to leave).

All that to say, is that it is imperative that the league shake its “Tobacco Road” bias image. That is why I propose that the tournament develop a permanent rotation between four cities: Orlando (ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex- Deep South POD), Raleigh (PNC Arena- Tobacco Road POD), DC (Washington Wizards Arena- Mid-Atlantic POD), Brooklyn (Barclays Center- North POD). Not only do these cities provide a variety of entertainment, dining and housing options for fans, but they also come with a significant corporate population and satisfy the fan bases of each “pod.” No longer would the ACC tournament be seen as a place where the North Carolina schools are given an advantage. With a strict, set rotation, fans could expect their favorite team to have an unbiased leg-up on the competition once every four years. This would also ease with travel plans for fans and teams and leave the league to work on more important matters such as re-branding itself and marketing its product.

What do you think? While we haven’t heard much yet, the news out of Florida (the location of the ACC Winter Meetings) is encouraging. John Swofford seems to be more willing to stray from the past, as seen with the addition of Louisville, than ever before and this can only be good for the future of the conference.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Basketball, Conference News, Conference Realignment, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , , , ,
31 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Rare Shout-Out to Other Blogs

The Confidential’s two favorite general blogs on the Internet, other than this one, are Frank the Tank and ACC Football Rx.  They should be part of any ACC fan’s regular reading.

ACC Football Rx is ACC-focused, which is great.  With a focus on football and expansion, the primary author, Hokie Mark, does a great job of picking subjects, accumulating data, and being realistic/positive about the ACC.  Really, there are far too many good articles over there to point out just one.  Add it your list.

Frank the Tank is expansion-based and Big 10 centric (to say the least), but there are a fair share of commentators who hold an allegiance outside the Big 10.  And the author is quite-evenhanded in discussing other conferences.  The commentariat is a little less reasoned, but are a great source for expansion ideas.

That blog’s latest entry discusses the Big XII and the ACC, the alliance discussed here last week, and other topics.  As always, the blog is quick to note that the assumption that the ACC in jeopardy is more fantasy than reality right now:

So, that’s where I see the threats of the ACC becoming completely coming apart end up failing.  UNC, in particular, has Texas-esque influence (even if it’s more perceived than real) in the ACC, and the actions of Deloss Dodds and the Longhorns have shown that power and big dog status can be even more important as making the most TV money from a conference.  (Notre Dame feels the same way.)  As a result, the thought that UNC and UVA are going to bolt because they are scared that the ACC will collapse doesn’t hold water with me.  Those 2 schools can keep the ACC together alone and they have enough powerful alums with massive pocketbooks and politicians backing them where getting more TV revenue isn’t going to carry the same weight with them as it did with Maryland.

That’s some good stuff too. And it really underscores why the ACC’s biggest problem is worrying about what the rest of the conference schools might be thinking.

If you care about the ACC, expansion matters.  These two blogs are two more to add to your required reading list.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
30 Jan 2013
2 Comments

What’s up?/ACC Winter Meetings

Hey guys, what’s up? I just wanted to introduce myself. I’m the new UNC correspondent for Atlantic Coast Confidential. Born in Raleigh, NC to two Virginia Tech grads, I was raised on Tobacco Road and loved every minute of it. Growing up, I actually had pretty much no loyalty to any team at all, cheering for UNC, NC State, Duke (I regret that) and even Wake since VT wasn’t in the ACC yet. But by the time they joined in 2004, I had decided to go to UNC and my loyalties were set for life. I still cheer for VT when they’re not playing Carolina, but when they do, it’s all Carolina all the time. That means that this Saturday’s upcoming game will be pretty fun. But I’m realistic. I know that a stronger ACC makes us all look good, so come tournament time I’m cheering for everybody except Duke (the Lehigh game was great). So while I love Carolina, I’ve always loved the ACC first and am extremely excited about sharing that passion with you.

Mr. Tar Heel

– Watch the ACC Spring Meetings over the next few days. What happens will pretty much determine whether we even need this blog next year, or if the long-rumored (by WVU fans) Armageddon is about to begin. My take- The whole idea is completely overblown. There’s way too much potential in a conference with the best media markets, over 33% of the US population, huge football brands (FSU, ND, Miami, Clemson, VT, etc.), legendary basketball programs (UNC, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville etc.), the best academics, most successful Olympic sports and unparalleled tradition for anything drastic to happen. Swofford will, as he always has, surprise everyone with something that will put the ACC on even monetary terms with the rest of the power conferences. ESPN has invested in the ACC way too much to see its product fall to Fox, or its other competitors. Plus, I just don’t see UNC forsaking its cultural roots for an all-around bad fit (Big 10), or FSU pulling a WVU and letting geographic sense fly out the window.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Conference Realignment, UNC Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , ,
26 Jan 2013
7 Comments

Friends with Benefits–the ACC and the Big XII?

The Confidential did not make this phrase up.

We can prove it.  Big XII Commissioner Bob Bowlsby recently said this:

“If anything, it’s the opposite,” Bowlsby said. “You can begin to get some advantages without taking on any of the disadvantages (of expansion). It’s one option that allows benefits. It’s kind of like friends with benefits.”

What was Bowlsby talking about?  Apparently, the Big XII is considering an alliance with 3 other conferences that would take expansion/realignment off the table, but allow conferences to use each other to maximize revenue.  The ACC is one of the conferences that the Big XII approached.  This issue involves scheduling, marketing, and perhaps even television contracts.

Look, while some folks are never going to think the ACC is at risk, the defection of Maryland is happening.  Of course, schools have left the ACC before.  Schools even left the SEC once upon a time.  But the money that the Big Ten is generating is simply too much for some institutions to turn their backs on.  So anything that can arguably add revenue to the ACC coffers is important.  If an alliance with the Big XII is part of it, so be it.

From a realignment standpoint, the idea of Florida State and others defecting to the Big XII is debatable.  It seems unlikely that the Seminoles would trade down academically, just to add a few million dollars.  But as long as that is on the table, there is just one more reason for ACC fans to be nervous.  At the same time, the Big XII has to worry about the Pac-12, which has few options for new members geographically.  So an alliance between the three conferences makes some sense.  If the Big XII is only considering adding teams to save itself from a future Pac-12 expansion, the fear of realignment is doing more harm than actual realignment.  As noted above, Bowlsby thinks that an alliance will reduce the pressure for expansion.

Really, the best case scenario would be an 8-10 year agreement between the 5 major conferences to let things play out for a while without more realignment.  The SEC and B1G can make more money by destroying other conferences, but nobody knows the cost of abandoning so many rivalries in the process.  Of course, it is hard to tell the predator to ignore the prey.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , ,
17 Jan 2013
5 Comments

Don’t Think Expansion is Over Just Yet…

Look… this is just never going to end.  With the Big East dying a slow death, and with Maryland’s departure, it is clear that the ACC is everyone’s target for future expansion.  And now the Big XII commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, is going on record that it may not be d0ne expanding.  So, if you are an ACC fan, this is not the time to get over-confident.

To be sure, it may be that the Big XII will decide not to expand.  They have plenty of money per school and the good fortune of a true round-robin in conference play.  The only real drawback to 10 members is the absence of a conference title game.  And Bowlsby does have a problem with the NCAA stating that 12, rather than 10, is the magic number for a lucrative championship game.  And, frankly, he has a point.  Who really cares–if the Big XII wants to have a conference championship game, the NCAA might as well let them.  A pretty victim-less “crime.”

Returning to expansion, the usual names will always pop up–Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, etc.  It is hard to see other schools adding to the per-school payouts that the Big XII will be generating.  And it is even harder to see a Duke, North Carolina, or Virginia being amenable to the academic inferiority that the Big XII would bring.  Still, the ACC has to be a little nervous.

More positive from an ACC standpoint is this blurb from Bowlsby:

“That’s exactly one of the questions we’ll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said Wednesday. “Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They don’t bring programs that are of the ilk of the others in the Big Ten. The philosophy clearly is: ‘As members of the Big Ten we can grow them.’ “

Maybe the Big XII is wondering whether it can grow a program or two of its own.  If so, enter Cincinnati, BYU, and perhaps even UConn.  These have to be the best three overall schools that are not affiliated with the top 5 conferences.  And perhaps nobody should be sleeping on South Florida.  The Big XII could add some viewership with the Cincinnati and Tampa markets.  At the very least, it is possible for the Big XII to expand without trying to lure an ACC school.

In the meantime, all anyone can do is sit back and watch.  Unless, of course, the ACC wants to start discussing a Grant of Rights… but that is another topic for another day.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
16 Jan 2013
4 Comments

ACC Beats SEC in One Metric: Revenue?

UPDATE:  Here is a link to the actual Forbes article, which provides more detail.  The Big XII comes in 5th at $262,000,000. Wondering about the Big East?  Try $94,000,000.

According to Forbes, the ACC has more revenue than the SEC.  The article ACC beat out the SEC in terms of revenue by several percent, allowing the ACC to snag the #3 spot in the conference rankings.  The Big 10 was #1, with the Pac 12 finishing second.

That being said, file this article under “FWIW,” with the “worth” being “not so much.”  After all, the Big XII seemed to be omitted.

It is also difficult to understand how the Big 10’s revenue of $310,000,000, could be only slightly more than the ACC’s revenue of $293,000,000.  While the article mentions “estimates,” it is unclear what possible estimate could lead to this calculation.  The Pac-12 was listed as having $303,000,000 in revenue, while the SEC trailed all conferences at $270,000,000.  Of course, the SEC is due to renegotiate its television deal soon, which will result in an increase.

What do you think?  Are these numbers legit?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Opinion and tagged , ,

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