The Confidential

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Archive for the tag “Florida State”

16 May 2012
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A Question for ACC Leadership

While Florida State–primarily the Internet commentariat–is acting like a bunch of spoiled brats, the ACC office has some answering to do as well.  In particular, the math is a bit fuzzy as to why the individual ACC schools are worth so much more money separately than together.  Perhaps Florida State is right that the most recent television contract was not negotiated sufficiently.

Consider this fuzzy math.  The Big XII is reported to get $20 million per year.  It is known that the Big 10 and SEC are already in that range (or above it or will be above it).  The Pac-12 is too, but that is irrelevant to this discussion.

In order for any of these four conferences to justify adding teams, the added teams would have to be worth at least enough to allow themselves to be paid what the current conference schools are making–say $20 million.  But, in that case, the conferences would only be breaking even by adding a new team.  For example, if the Big XII is getting $20 million per school, with 10 schools that is $200 million.  If Florida State and Clemson joined, this would be 12 teams.  In order to break even, the Big XII would have to renegotiate its contract to allow payment of $240 million.  In order for each of the schools to get $22 million apiece (10% more), the contract would have to be for $264 million ($22M x 12).  If so, this means that Florida State and Clemson are worth $64 million to the networks–$32 million apiece.

There is talk that some conference would be interested in taking Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.  Even North Carolina State is thought to be on the SEC’s radar.  That is everyone except Pitt, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse.  Assume that only six schools of those ten schools are worth adding to a current conference.  In order for those conferences to grow by 10%, then those six schools must be worth at least $192 million to the networks.

And then assume the other eight schools are worth a total of $80 million–approximately 1/3 value of the six schools worthy of being poached.  That seems fair.  With four of those schools arguably being worth added to an existing conference, that is probably quite low.  In any event, even this low number works out to $272 million for 14 teams.  This is nearly $19 million per team.  That is more than the reported value of the ACC package from ESPN.

This suggests a few things.

First, and obviously, the above math is simply wrong.  And there is no formal indication that any conference wants anyone from the ACC. If Florida State is the only valuable commodity, then maybe the ACC is–ironically–safe from being poached.

Second, conferences might be willing to expand even if they do not increase the revenue to existing schools.  But why expand if there is nothing to be gained?  If you are Texas, why add a potential obstacle to the playoffs in exchange for no additional money?  Illogical.   Same for the B1G and SEC.  Why expand for the sake of expanding when you already have great brands?

Third, the ACC negotiated poorly.  The Confidential is not saying that the ACC was not in a tough situation by having its rights locked-in and the inability to start a bidding war.  But, at the same time, the thought of schools leaving should have been a key focus.  Even without the Big XII rumors, the SEC is sitting right there with the potential to add schools.  And ESPN just saved the Big XII.  Would the threat of ACC dissolution be enough to get ESPN to save it?  We may find out.  It might have been better to negotiate this up front to keep Florida State happy.  Somehow the ACC had to get some leverage over ESPN.  If it failed to do so, some blame has to fall on leadership.

The last option seems most likely.  If so, Florida State has a legitimate gripe that the ACC did not maximize the TV revenue.  If that is the case, ACC leadership has some explaining to do.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , ,
15 May 2012
1 Comment

Actually, Does the Big XII Really Want Florida State?

It has been said that these conference arrangements are like marriages.  They are 100-year decisions, not 10-year decisions.  The Confidential does not have a source handy, but will credit Frank the Tank for the observation.  Regardless of the source of that statement, it is true.  While it is apparent that Florida State is unhappy with its marriage to the ACC, the question is why the Big XII would want to be Florida State’s new spouse?

Picture this.  You go on a date with someone.  All they do is talk about how their ex-spouse was so awful.  At first, you are sympathetic.  But after a while it occurs to you that the problem is not the ex, it is the person across the dinner table from you.  These complaints are minor.  The ex had room to improve, but this person you are dating is way too spoiled, delusional, unrealistic, and unwilling to accept responsibility.  What do you do?  You run.  Sure, this may be an attractive person–which is valuable–but the long-term prognosis is awful.  This person will take away much more than they give in the long-run and be a pain-in-the-butt along the way.

As it relates to conference realignment, if FSU doesn’t like Tobacco Road, how are they going to like dealing with Texas?  If FSU is willing to bitch about Thursday games, officiating, and vague paranoia regarding pro-basketball sentiments, they are going to bitch in the Big XII.  If FSU does not like Wake Forest getting the same money (even though Wake has won 4 of 6 from FSU), how is it going to like Iowa State getting the same money?  If FSU fans are riled up over misinformation regarding third-tier rights from basketball–by teams that do not threaten their football team–how are they going to like Texas making $10 million more in third-tier rights AND using that to field a football  team that may very well keep FSU out of a 4-team playoff.  If FSU is willing to jump ship for $5 million, what is going to happen if the SEC is able to offer FSU $5 million more in 15 years?  It’s all about the money for FSU. The Big XII may not always have the best ability to pay FSU enough to be happy.

The bottom line is that FSU is a divorced, emotionally unbalanced, very attractive female with entitlement issues–jealous that her friends all drive Porsches, while she is “stuck” with the BMW that she picked out.  A school like Louisville would be a loyal, girl-next-door type, thrilled to trade in the Taurus for a BMW, much less a Porsche.  Who is the one that YOU marry?

And when you are not even sold on marriage at all, like Texas apparently is, all the more reason to ignore Florida State’s overtures.  Someone else can marry that problem.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
14 May 2012

FSU Fans Need a Reality Check

Another day, another day for FSU fans to flock to message boards crying about how the Atlantic Coast Conference has treated them so poorly.  If you read the message boards, this pretty much sums up the Seminoles fans:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crying about this, crying about that.  Having to play a Thursday game.  Having to play Clemson after a tough game against Oklahoma.  Having to share money.  Having to drink 2% milk instead of skim milk at the continental breakfast during a conference meeting in 2008.

The bottom line is this… Florida State has not really mattered in football in a long, long time.  From 2001 to 2011, no less than 3 losses.  81-50 is good, but hardly elite.  Oklahoma was 119-24 and Texas was 114-28 over the same period.  Florida State was 29th, behind Boston College, Louisville, and Hawaii.

Indeed, the last time Florida State was elite was 2000, when they were 11-2, losing to Oklahoma 13-2 in the Orange Bowl.  The year before, of course, the Seminoles were 12-0 and national champions.  And before 1999, Florida State’s record speaks for itself regarding its great run under Bobby Bowden.  At 109-13-1, Florida State had the best record of all teams during the 1990s.

But we are talking about the 1990s.  By comparison, Syracuse–a recent ACC addition–had the 14th most wins during the 1990s, ahead of Virginia Tech, Texas, Clemson, and Oklahoma.  Do Florida State fans really want to cling to the 1990s?

Again, from 2001 to 2011, we are talking a team that really did not put itself into national relevance at all.   That’s not the ACC’s fault.  That’s Florida State’s fault.

And, until Florida State fans can point to some real detriment in being in the ACC, the rest is just crying.  The Confidential says… “Man up and win more games, and then complain about your conference brethren.”

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , ,
13 May 2012
1 Comment

ACC: No Need to Panic, But Perhaps a Little Desperation May Be in Order

This Florida State to the Big XII stuff may not have much truth to it.  But where there is smoke, there may be fire.  And Florida State fans are just delusional enough to think that it’s everyone’s fault but their own that are a mediocre football school.  Delusional fans have led to conference switches in Missouri and Texas A&M.  That is reason enough for the ACC to perhaps not panic, but consider that this is THE TIME to do everything possible to keep Florida State happy.  If Florida State leaves, the whole party could come crashing down, with the SEC and Big 10 smelling blood.

Now, the ACC can play the Big East role and just hope that it does not hurt too much.  Or it can get proactive.  And, by proactive, that means ensuring that the conference remains football relevant.  If Florida State wants something–give it to them. So if I am running the ACC, I think the time has come to make a sweetheart offer to Notre Dame.  Specifically–offer Notre Dame and Navy membership as a package.

This converts a must-play game for ND into a conference game.  I know Navy is close to Maryland, but is Navy REALLY a threat to ever be a serious player with their admissions limitations?  And it is not like Navy is an inferior academic institution.  The only issue is basketball–and does that really matter in this big picture?  The goal is to keep the football schools happy for once.  Navy fits the geographical profile.

Then, go back to an 8-game schedule.  This allows FSU to schedule another home game, etc.  Again, the ACC favoring the football teams.  ND and Navy can each schedule 4 OOC games too.  That allows ND to schedule USC, plus three other games.  Navy gets Army, Air Force, and two more.

The loss of a 9-game schedule means 7 less games.  But adding Navy and ND adds in 8 more games (if calculating correctly).  Anyway, when you are talking adding ND, that has to add to the value of the conference slate.  Plus, Navy is no slouch either.  If you are ESPN and you can get Notre Dame into the mix, I am sure you can increase the ACC payout, plus perhaps allow some third-tier rights to stay with the schools.  The damage to NBC alone has to have some value.  We are talking Notre Dame here.

Why would ND do this?  They probably would not.  But if they did, it would be because:

  1. ND would get scheduling flexibility that no other conference could offer
  2. ND gets to have games from Boston to Miami and all points within.  Games against Syracuse can be played in NYC every other time.  Games against Pitt can be played in Philly every few times.  Games against Navy in DC.
  3. ND gets a place for its other sports that is far superior to the Big East.  ND basketball gets games against Duke, UNC, Syracuse, Pitt, Maryland, etc.  ND alums get a few games in Florida and the south.
  4. ND lacrosse joins up with Syracuse, Virginia, Duke, UNC, and Maryland.  Pretty darn good too.

It may be a pipe dream, but the ACC has something that no other conference has–access to the major media markets on the East Coast.  The ACC also has the potential for high-quality football.  Throw in outstanding academics and a fair balance of private/public schools and you have a reasonable fit for Notre Dame.  Willingness to take Navy would be the best way of ensuring the scheduling flexibility to keep ND fans happy.

Or, the ACC can sit on its hands and hope that some combination of Notre Dame, UConn, and Rutgers will someday appeal to Notre Dame.  But the ACC may not be football relevant at that point.  And football irrelevance would convert the ACC into the Big East 2.0–and that will never lure Notre Dame in.

So it is now or never.  If the ACC has any lure for Notre Dame, the time has come to use it.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
12 May 2012

No Sleepy Offseason—Florida State Officially Has Wandering Eyes

The Confidential was hoping that the period between the Big Dance ending and football starting could be a lazy, sleepy offseason.  A little lacrosse news, a little baseball news, some draft updates, etc.  Instead, it now looks like Florida State will be the latest school to enter the conference realignment fray.  Indeed, the Chairman of the Florida State Board of Trustees has indicated that the Seminoles should look into the Big XII conference.  Jimbo Fisher apparently tweeted something similar.  This legitimizes the rumors surrounding both Florida State and Clemson being dissatisfied with the ACC’s commitment to football.

Of course, the Confidential can sum up these rumors pretty succinctly.  Are you f-ing kidding me?

Florida State has done nothing on the gridiron for a decade now.  They have had four losses or more (usually more) every year since 2004.  This is a team that cannot win the ACC.  How are they going to compete in the SEC and Big XII?

I know, I know… the complaint will be that Florida State cannot compete without the money.  And the other schools make a few million dollars a year more.

Well, that is what they call an excuse.  A lame excuse, actually.  Florida State does not make less than Wake Forest.  If the Seminoles cannot beat the Demon Deacons on a regular basis, good luck with Oklahoma, Texas, Alabama, LSU, etc.  It’s not money that makes those schools good.  It is competent recruiting, player development, and coaching on top of having elite status.  In other words, one cannot just say they are “elite,” they have to go out and prove it.  Even Texas, Florida, and Ohio State can have very mediocre seasons with the wrong mix of players and coaches. In any event, FSU has not been dominant as the elite football program in what its fans think is a weak football conference.  See the hypocrisy?

And Clemson?  Please.  At least Florida State was dominant 10 years ago.  Clemson has not beaten Big East schools in bowl games two years in a row.  Somehow, making several million dollars a year more than West Virginia and South Florida did not translate to wins on the field.

The Confidential is not suggesting that these schools cannot make a few million dollars by timing a move right.  But any fan of those schools thinking that their athletic fortunes will somehow change is just not paying attention.  Enjoy your extra money.  But don’t be surprised if the product on the field is not any better.  Money doesn’t make Penn State basketball or Indiana football relevant.

It’s just an excuse.  A lame one.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , ,
07 Apr 2012

Mel Kiper’s Latest Mock Draft

ESPN’s NFL Draft guru, Mel Kiper, has issued a mock draft that goes two rounds deep–63 projected selections.  The draft is very heavy on ACC players.

Kiper has the first ACC player off the board in pick #11, with Luke Kuechly, LB, Boston College to Kansas City:

Kuechly is a rare talent at linebacker — instinctive, explosive, able to make plays from sideline to sideline, but very sound in reading plays into the backfield and making stops. Kansas City has a need here, and Kuechly is a safe pick, a guy who can get on the field early and pick up the nuances of the NFL game right away. A tackling machine at linebacker, he’ll make any defense better.

At #12, Kiper goes right back to the ACC with Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina, to Seattle:

Even if Kuechly is still on the board, it would be tough for Seattle to pass on perhaps the safest 4-3 DE option available. Coples has prototypical size, can play every down as a pass-rusher and has a solid arsenal of moves to get to opposing quarterbacks, but with the size and discipline to be a force against the run. Seattle can’t go wrong here with either the top LB or DE available. This defense is close to being considered among the NFL’s finest.

At #18, rapidly rising Chander Jones, DE, Syracuse, is projected to go to San Diego:

Listed as a defensive end at Syracuse, Jones has the talent, upside and a great frame to make the move to OLB in a pass-rushing role. He’s still a little raw, but the instincts are there and offensive linemen have a really tough time getting their hands on him. Could blossom into a star for the Chargers.

At #30, San Francisco goes for offense with Stephen Hill, WR, Georgia Tech:

Hill is the biggest home run threat in the draft when you combine his speed and size, and it’s no secret the 49ers need some help at wide receiver, even with the additions of Randy Moss and Mario Manningham. He’ll need an adjustment period as he gets used to doing more in terms of scheme than he was asked at Georgia Tech, but he’s the kind of weapon this offense needs to expand.

Pretty interesting first round–not a single player from Miami, Florida State, Clemson, or Virginia Tech.

Here are Kiper’s second round projections:

Round 2
Pick Team Player Position School

42 Miami Andre Branch DE Clemson
A great fit in Miami’s adjusted scheme, Branch offers late-first-round value at this spot.

46 Philadelphia Zach Brown LB North Carolina
A great athlete who can fill a big need at linebacker for the Eagles. Even with DeMeco Ryans, they need help.

51 Philadelphia (from Ariz) Dwayne Allen TE Clemson
My top tight end for much of the year, Allen didn’t test well, but he’s there on tape.

60 Baltimore Terrell Manning LB N.C. State
They lost another good OLB this offseason, and Manning makes sense as a reinforcement.

63 New York Giants David Wilson RB Virginia Tech
They lose Brandon Jacobs, but Wilson will bring some power of his own, with a lot more explosiveness.

So Kiper sees nine ACC players going in the first two rounds.  Still nobody from Miami or Florida State though.  That is pretty shocking really.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , ,
05 Apr 2012

Football Spring Practice Updates

It is April.  That means that the college football season is just five months away.  In fact, August practices begin in… doing the math… four months.  Anyway, here are some snippets from what is taking place across the ACC.

In Miami, Al Golden is trying to toughen up the Hurricanes.  He implemented the “U Tough” program to get the kids into the gym in the offseason.  With all those 4 and 5 star kids roaming around Coral Gables, getting them focused on the gym only means bad things for the rest of the ACC.

Up north a few miles, Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher liked what he saw in the first scrimmage.  There was a lot of intensity, plus it was productive.  That does sound like a good mix.

Meanwhile, in Clemson, the first scrimmage led to only mixed reviews.  Apparently, the offense had little trouble overpowering the defense.  That will have to change.

In North Carolina State country, everyone is trying to figure out whether Mustafa Greene is still on the team.  It sure looks like just a suspension right now–it would have been easy for Tom O’Brien to just say he had been kicked off.

In Pittsburgh, three coaches in three years means that the depth charts are in flux.  The quarterback position is particularly unsettled.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , ,
04 Apr 2012

Here comes the 2012-2013 Preseason Polls

While most of the college basketball world has shifted from the 2011-2012 season into preparing for the Mayan End of the World in December 2012, a few brave souls have decided to issue early pre-season basketball polls.

CBS’s Dennis Dodd decided to go away out on a limb by projecting Kentucky #1.  Syracuse, at #7, is the highest ranking ACC team, while North Carolina is at #10.  North Carolina State at #15 edges out Duke at #18.  No other ACC team made Dodd’s list.

ESPN’s Andy Katz at least tries to do something different, projecting Indiana as #1.  Katz has North Carolina State at #6 and North Carolina at #11.  Syracuse and Duke are #14 and #15, respectfully.  He also has Florida State, Pitt, and Maryland “on the cusp.”

NBC’s Mike Miller also has Indiana as the projected #1.  So maybe Katz is right and Dodd is the one that is clueless.  Miller has North Carolina State #4, Duke #11, Syracuse #15, and North Carolina all the way down at #22.  Miller also “considered” Maryland, which is nice.

Combining these three polls, reveals the following results:

  • North Carolina State: #15, #6, and #4 = 25 pts
  • Syracuse: #7, #14, and #15 = 36 pts
  • North Carolina: #10, #11, and #22 = 43 pts
  • Duke #18, #15, and #11 = 44 pts

There it is, folks.  Looks like the North Carolina State Wolfpack are you early favorites to take home the ACC Championship in 2012-2013.  Assuming we make it that far, of course.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
19 Mar 2012

The ACC and the Post-Season: Update 5

Sunday featured three ACC teams trying to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.  Unfortunately, only two of them made it.  And, for one, it was a bittersweet victory.

The first game of the day was a success as #11 North Carolina State upset #3 Georgetown, 66-63.   C.J. Williams, Scott Wood and C.J. Leslie each scored 14 points to lead North Carolina State into the Sweet Sixteen.  Lorenzo Brown had a nice game too, with 12 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, and 2 key free throws down the stretch.  North Carolina State will play @2 seed Kansas.

The second game of the day was a bittersweet result for North Carolina.  The #1 seed Tar Heels had little trouble defeating #8 Creighton, 87-73.  John Henson returned from injury with 13 points, 10 rebounds and four blocks.  But North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall broke a wrist–putting him in jeopardy for future games.  Marshall scored 18 points and dished out 11 assists.  And 3 other Tar Heels scored in double-digits too.  Creighton was held to 41.2% shooting and rebounded by 9.  All in all, a very solid effort for the Tar Heels.  Next up is the #13 seed Ohio, who defeated #12 South Florida.

The final game of the day featured #3 Florida State and #6 seed Cincinnati.  Unfortunately, Cincinnati defeated Florida State 62-56, ending the Seminoles season.  Poor shooting plagued Florida State as they hit only 38% of its attempts from the floor.  In addition, Florida State committed 17 turnovers.  Luke Loucks led the Seminoles with 14 points.  Michael Snaer was only 3 for 9 from three-point range, but rebounded from his scoreless opening round game to add 11 points.

After today’s results, the ACC is down to North Carolina, and North Carolina State, as well as Syracuse.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, March Madness and tagged , , , , ,
18 Mar 2012

The ACC and the Post-Season: Update 4

The Big Dance is now down to 24 teams, as half the Sweet Sixteen is set.  There are four ACC teams left: Syracuse, North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Florida State.

Syracuse was the first team to make the Sweet Sixteen, defeating Kansas State, 75-58.  The game was actually quite close in the first half–although both teams traded significant runs.  But the second-half was all Syracuse, as the depth of the Orange wore down the Wildcats.  Dion Waiters came off the bench to lead Syracuse with 18 points, while Scoop Jardine led the starters with 16 points.  Perhaps the biggest surprise was the decent play of freshman center Rakeem Christmas, who had 8 points and 11 rebounds.  All in all, Syracuse looked substantially more like a #1 seed than they have in weeks.  They will move to play #4 seed Wisconsin on Thursday.

Sunday will feature three ACC teams trying to make it to the Sweet Sixteen.  The first game of the day will be the 12:15 pm matchup (on CBS) between #11 North Carolina State and #3 Georgetown.  At 5:15 pm,  CBS will also televise the game between #1 seed North Carolina and #8 Creighton.  Although the talk on Selection Sunday was the potential of Creighton defeating North Carolina in a shootout–ESPN.com’s Giant Killers Blog gives Creighton a 2.7% chance of winning.  Finally, at 9:30 pm, TBS will show #3 Florida State play #6 seed Cincinnati.  Both teams looked great in their conference tournaments, but then failed to put together a solid 40 minutes in the opening round.  All three games should be fairly exciting.

Syracuse's Rakeem Christmas slams one home. Photo courtesy of Dennis Nett/The Post Standard 2011. See http://www.syracuse.com/axeman/index.ssf/2012/03/syracuse_basketball_vs_kansas.html

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, March Madness and tagged , , , , ,

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