The Confidential

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 4

Three games into the double-elimination season, the 34 entrants remaining for last week were reduced further by two, knocking the entrants down to 32.  And three teams took on a strike with their Florida State and Boston College selections.  Only 25 teams have yet to suffer a first strike.

As we move on to Week 4, here is an interesting chart as to which teams have been used or not used:

Nobody has used Pitt yet.  In any event, good luck to everyone in Week 4!

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 3

Unfortunately, two games into the double-elimination season, a few entrants have been eliminated.  This week’s carnage was caused by a single game–the Duke loss to Wake Forest.  That caused six entrants to receive strikes, two of whom suffered strikes in Week 1.  That means 34 entrants remain.

As we move on to Week 3, here is an interesting chart as to which teams have been used or not used:

Nobody has used Pitt or Florida State, while only one entrant over two weeks has used UNC, Va Tech, Clemson, and Notre Dame.  Louisville and Miami have only been used by two entrants.

As we move to Week 3, the strategy will become more apparent.  9 ACC teams face a P5 opponent, while Syracuse plays South Florida and Miami travels to App State.  If this was Week 6, you might be forced to pick a team playing a P5 opponent.  On the other hand, saving Florida State for Week 10 is great, but being eliminated in Week 4 is not going to help that cause.

In any event, good luck to everyone in Week 3!

Confidential Survivor Pool Update

Well, with a double-elimination format, nobody was eliminated in Week 1.  Of the 36 participants, all move on to Week 2.

Still, a few folks suffered their first loss.  Three entrants thought that Virginia was a safe bet against FCS neighbor Richmond (more on Virginia here), but suffered a first strike.  And one entrant took the risk of selecting Notre Dame in its opener against Texas.

As we move on to Week 2, here is an interesting chart as to which teams have been used or not used:

Nobody has used Miami, BC, Pitt, North Carolina, FSU, or Clemson yet.  UNC, Florida State, and Clemson are wise abstains, as they were playing SEC foes (going 2-1!!!).  And BC opened against Georgia Tech–a difficult first game.  Not sure why nobody opted for Miami or Pitt though.

As we move to Week 2, it will be interesting to see how many folks will strategically opt for non-elite schools Georgia Tech (Mercer) and Boston College (UMass) in games that obviously should be wins.  Recall that Georgia Tech has had some close calls in recent years–in the 2014 Orange Bowl victory season, the Yellow Jackets beat Wofford 38-19, beat Tulane 38-21, and then only eked by Georgia Southern 42-38.  In contrast, the Yellow Jackets opened up the 2015 season by beating up on Alcorn State and Tulane, only to finish the season 3-9 (also losing to Virginia along the way).  Boston College, meanwhile, thumped UMass 30-7 in their last matchup.

Anyway, the strategy is yours.  Saving Florida State for Week 10 is great, but being eliminated in Week 4 is not going to help that cause.

Good luck to everyone in Week 2!