Notre Dame to the ACC in 2013!
More to come later, just wanted to get this out there ASAP.
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The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: March 11, 2013
So there it is. Another regular season in the books. As we head into the exciting tournament season, here is the final “regular season” weekly Top 12, with 5 precincts reporting:
#1 Duke, 4 first place votes, 59 pts.
#2 Louisville, 1 first place vote, 55 pts.
#3 Miami, 50 pts.
#4 Pittsburgh, 44 pts.
#5 Syracuse, 36 pts.
#6 North Carolina. 35 pts.
#7 Notre Dame, 32 pts.
#8 (tie) North Carolina State & Virginia, 24 pts.
#10 Maryland, 13 pts.
#11 Florida State, 12 pts.
#12 (tie) Georgia Tech & Boston College lemson, 3 pts.
Wake Forest and Clemson got votes in early polls. Only Virginia Tech failed to have ANYONE give them a top 12 vote at any point in the season. Good job firing Seth Greenberg.
How about Syracuse–ranked #4 in one poll and #9 in another. Virginia has a pretty good range too, from 7th to 10th. Notre Dame ranged from 5th to 8th. The remaining teams were not quite as variable.
Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…
ESPN’s Big Monday
This blog entry was contributed by a guest, who chooses to remain anonymous (for now). The Confidential greatly appreciates this guest’s opinion and welcomes others to submit guest entries–whether anonymous or not.
Yes, we have been told that football drives the bus. We get it! ACC football has a lot of questions to answer. But for the purpose of this singular guest blog entry, let us concentrate on what the ACC does historically well … basketball.
For the last 30 years, the ACC and Big East have essentially traded punches in their all-out pursuit of being the dominant college hoops conference in the land. Fittingly, I propose we begin our study with the memorable UNC-Georgetown final in 1982. The conferences clash for the first time. In Dean, MJ, Worthy, Perkins vs. John Thompson, Patrick and Sleepy Floyd. Great theater. And a three-decade long tug of war began with UNC claiming an initial victory.
Including ’82, in 31 seasons, there have been 124 Final Four spots up for grabs. And a team from the ACC or Big East claimed 49 of those berths. That’s a slick 40 percent and that does NOT include FF berths claimed by Louisville or Cincinnati in their pre-Big East days.
Now, the ACC’s immediate future won’t include Big East basketball heavies such as Georgetown, Marquette, UConn or Cincinnati, but it is safe to say when you combined the hoops heritages of (alphabetical order as not to offend anyone) Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NCSU, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Virginia under one roof, the word “juggernaut” can justifiably be tossed around.
And, one cannot with good conscious sneeze at the histories and accomplishments of schools like Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson or Florida State. Even Miami looks like a solid #2 seed this year, and Virginia Tech can beat anyone at Cassel Coliseum on a given night.
Oh. Maryland. Never mind. Another topic.
But there is no avoiding the fact that ACC hoops will be King. And it begs the question, what and where is the King’s throne?
My answer is that it should be on ESPN’s Big Monday at 7 p.m.
That’s right. Other than securing a football commitment from the Golden Domers, I think seizing the early slot on ESPN’s Big Monday should be near the top of the ACC’s Honey To Do List.
In the college hoops universe, Tuesday’s are Super, Wednesday’s are wonderful and Thursday’s are weekend-esque, but Monday’s are BIG. They are the proper and fitting platform for Kings.
Think about it.
- The NFL rules the majority of January (and into February, Super Bowl). On at least two weekends, playoff games are scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. And yet, January is when the conference hoops slate gets started. These are important games. The ACC should seek to avoid these primo matchups being engulfed by Super Storm NFL Playoffs.
- Since weekend hoops games are necessary, note that around 90% of weekend college hoops games fall on Saturdays. On weekends, anything beyond the NFL is sucked up by the NBA, the PGA Tour (I love the West Coast swing!!) and NASCAR (Daytona). So after gorging on sports all weekend and fending off the usual Sunday night/Monday morning depression, Big Monday is always there with open arms waiting to kick start a new sporting week.
- There is a reason that traditionally ESPN puts its best CBB crew (Sean McDonough, Jay Bilas, Bill Raftery) on at 7 p.m. on Big Monday. Sorry, Mike Patrick, Dick Vitale, Doris Burke, Len Elmore and Adrian Branch, need not apply. For the record, Jimmy Dykes (aka John Calipari’s Press Secretary), Fran Frashcilla (Euro basketball does not matter to me) and Andy Katz (Mark Few’s shoulder to cry on) are NOT Big Monday worthy. Sean, Jay and Bill are as good as any three-man booth in any sport. They’ll do the ACC serious justice. They are BIG time.
- Academically, the ACC’s Big Monday combatants could travel on Sundays and potentially have their athletes back in the classroom by Noon on Tuesday. This fact should matter in the equation.
I also realize there is a reluctance by ACC charter schools to accept anything that might be tainted Big East.
I get it. I graduated from a Big East school. I later worked in an ACC Athletic Department, so I am well aware of and greatly appreciate the ACC’s proud history. I just hope that growth opportunities — such as a unique and almost exclusive platform on Big Monday – are not simply bypassed out of conference spite (a.k.a. anti-Big East bias).
In some limited instances such as Big Monday, what was once terrific for the Big East can render even greater returns for the ACC.
The Case for Navy to the ACC
Look, nobody knows what is going on with the rumors regarding teams leaving the ACC. Depending on where you choose to read, the ACC may be extremely strong right now or extremely vulnerable. The Confidential remains of the opinion that the absence of a grant of rights deal confirms that the Conference is at least somewhat vulnerable. But, assuming it is not, there is still the issue of Notre Dame’s partial membership. While the Confidential understands the lure of Connecticut and Cincinnati, and maybe even Temple, the Confidential would also like to make the case for Navy as the 16th school.
First, Navy could be considered in the same exact format as Notre Dame–a partial football schedule, with membership in the remaining sports. Perhaps Notre Dame and Navy could split one share of the revenue somehow unless/until full football membership was resolved.
Picture this for divisions, with cross-over above/below:
Atlantic: Notre Dame, Miami, Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest
Coastal: Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, NC State
If ND and Navy could commit to the 7 division games, plus an 8th game between the two teams, this should make everyone happy and wealthier. ND would still have 4 more games to spread among its OOC foes, such as USC and various Big 10 schools. And the ACC Championship game could include Notre Dame.
Frankly, Navy has not been that bad in football anyway. Credit Paul Johnson for putting them back on the map. They are not a pushover.
Or, if ND/Navy are reluctant to go that high in terms of # of games, just keep them in parentheses… playing 5 games, plus the 6th game with each other.
Those divisions still work for hoops too.
Second, Navy is a fine academic institution. There is no downgrade there.
Third, Navy has a lacrosse team, which would give the ACC its 6th lacrosse-playing school.
Fourth, Navy is located in the very place vacated by Maryland. While Navy does not have the local following that Maryland does, it certainly has the national following.
Fifth, while its basketball team will always be undermanned, is that the worst thing for the conference? There is already plenty of competition to get to the Big Dance. And if Navy ever DID make it… they would have the whole country rooting for them. Needless to say, Navy has not done well outside of the David Robinson era anyway. So it’s no loss for the institution.
Finally, this keeps the UConn/Cincinnati debate alive should the ACC suffer additional losses. It is likely that future expansion will be in pairs. So adding those two teams together remains possible for backfill purposes.
What do you think? Why yes or no?
ACC Lacrosse Season is Underway
After football and basketball, lacrosse may be the most popular sport in the ACC. At the very least, it has several GREAT teams participating in it: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland. Starting soon enough, Syracuse and Notre Dame will be part of the mix too.
The current national standings are as follows:
| 1 | Maryland (22) | 4-0 | 1 |
| 2 | Notre Dame (3) | 3-0 | 2 |
| 3 | Cornell | 3-0 | 5 |
| 4 | Loyola (MD) | 4-1 | 4 |
| 5 | Princeton | 2-0 | 12 |
| 6 | Johns Hopkins | 3-1 | 3 |
| 7 | Denver | 4-1 | 10 |
| 8 | Ohio State | 4-0 | 13 |
| 9 | Virginia | 4-1 | 6 |
| 10 | Syracuse | 2-1 | 16 |
That means 4 of the top 10 schools are either part of the ACC or will be soon. Of course, Maryland will be leaving, but you get the idea. The ACC is THE dominant force in lacrosse.
Also consider that North Carolina is ranked #11 and Duke just fell out of the top 20.
The question that begs is what the ACC is going to do in the future to replace Maryland. The Big 10 is toying with the idea of adding Johns Hopkins for lacrosse purposes only (and research consortium monopoly games).
The Confidential has pondered the merits of adding Navy to the ACC as the 16th team. Give them the same deal as Notre Dame… all sports and 5 games of football. A 6th game could be Notre Dame vs. Navy, an annual matchup on the gridiron. It would certainly be nice to give the ACC that 6th conference team for lacrosse too–the prerequisite for an automatic bid.
Of course, as noted above, the ACC lacrosse teams are all heavy hitters. An automatic bid is not a make it or break it thing.
Is ESPN’s Greed Causing it to Lose Profit?
Frank the Tank has a new article up on the Catholic 7’s new television deal showing that basketball has more value in expansion than previously thought. The Confidential does not disagree. However, with Fox offering big money for a basketball-only product–and taking that product away from ESPN–it is just the latest example of ESPN’s greed causing it to lose profit. What this also shows is that ESPN made a killing off its undervalued contract with the Big East and is making another killing off of the ACC contract.
Think about it. If the Catholic 7 collectively have a fair market value of $3M apiece–that is $21M right there. TCU, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, and Louisville have values of approximately $18M apiece–given that they were accepted into conferences that needed roughly that (more for TCU/Rutgers/WVU) to break even. So that is $108M. Figure ND is worth $6M for its non-football stuff… that is $135M ($21M + $108 + $6M). And then you still have UConn, USF, and Cincinnati. Even at $25M total for the three schools, that is $160M.
For that collection of schools, ESPN offered $11M per football school–or $99M/year. With the hoops schools getting a few million apiece, that is another $20M tops. So $120M. $40M less than what the schools ultimately proved to be worth individually. At the very least.
In the end, ESPN ends up with UConn, USF, Cincinnati, and fodder. So much for that extra value. By trying to profit as much as possible off the Big East, ESPN ended up losing most of it.
Sort of. Some of it went to the ACC, which is also under ESPN’s control.
For now.
Regardless of the veracity of any rumors, there are vultures circling the ACC to see IF it is a carcass.
So the interesting issue is whether ESPN will lose its ACC golden goose also. Viewed separately, all but a handful of ACC schools are desired by the Big XII, SEC, and Big 10. Viewed conservatively, BC, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest are “stuck” in the ACC. An argument could be made that BC, Pitt, and Syracuse might have value to the Big XII as part of a NE wing with WVU. Interesting thought. But let’s assume not. If conferences making $20M/year (minimum) can find a revenue BOOST in adding the other 10 ACC schools, that must mean that those schools are worth at least $22M apiece or $220M. Assuming the remaining 4 are worth $11M apiece (50%), that is $264M total. Minimum. It is probably much higher.
Well, ESPN is paying an average of $240M per year. Less extra profit than with the Big East, but still a nice 10% premium above the bare minimum numbers discussed above.
The question this time is whether ESPN will allow the ACC–in its current form–to walk out the door. For every ACC school that leaves for somewhere other than the SEC, ESPN becomes less relevant and Fox becomes more relevant on the college sports scene. At some point, ESPN has to protect its place in the college sports game. It wants to start an SEC Network, not become the SEC Network. Right? But, given what has happened at many major corporations, one can never underestimate the stupidity of an organization. 10 years from now ESPN’s college programming might be down to the SEC and 10 different shows where reporters yell at each other about college sports. Or ESPN could end up overbidding on the Big XII or Big 10 because they put themselves into a desperate situation. Who knows?
But it does seem like ESPN could save itself a lot of trouble by locking up the ACC. That gives the network good football and great basketball. Programming from September to March. At the very least, something to keep it on pace with Fox.
Syracuse, Notre Dame, Pitt, and Louisville fans… get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:
Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions
ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:
ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions
The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: March 4, 2013
It is basketball season. It is also a Monday. That means it is time for the Confidential’s weekly correspondent poll.
You have questions. How far will Syracuse fall on its 3-game losing streak? How far up will suddenly-hot North Carolina surge? What to do with Virginia–who beat Duke and lost to Boston College?
We have answers.
Here is the weekly Top 12, with 6 precincts reporting:
- Duke (4 first place votes) 70 points
- (tie) Miami (1 first place vote) & Louisville (1 first place vote) 63 points
- (tie)
- Pittsburgh 46 points
- (tie) Syracuse and Notre Dame 44 points
- (tie)
- North Carolina 43 points
- North Carolina State 33 points
- Virginia 25 points
- Maryland 19 points
- Florida State 12 points
- Georgia Tech 5 points
Notes:
Wake Forest also received 1 point.
Nobody had Duke below 2nd place.
Pitt ranged from 3rd place to 8th place. Syracuse ranged from 4th place to 9th place. North Carolina ranged from 5th place to 8th place. Otherwise, pretty tight ranges.
Florida State is a unanimous #11 team. Which is nice.
Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…
Get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:
Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions
ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:
ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions
Notre Dame, The Big East, and the ACC
Well, it looks like the “Catholic 7” that are leaving the Big East are going to be taking the name–The Big East–with them. As Frank the Tank points out, the Big East name still has value to those schools. Indeed, Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, Providence, and Seton Hall have been part of the Big East for a long time. In contrast, only Connecticut has a comparatively long history. In the end, it certainly seems like this is a fair result.
Frank notes that Fox is paying for this move. So it is yet another defeat for ESPN in the “war” between the two sports programming giants.
The interesting part is what happens with Notre Dame. If the “Catholic 7” leaves before the 2013-2014 basketball season, what happens to the Fighting Irish? Do they stay as a part of the diminished Former Big East, with games against UConn, Temple, and the C-USA teams? Do they go with the Catholic 7 for one year while waiting for the ACC to create a spot? Will the ACC create a spot for the Fighting Irish? There are a lot of moving parts here. In any event, the unlikely event of Notre Dame being in the ACC for the 2013-2014 basketball season is no longer quite as unlikely.
Oh, and let’s not feel TOO sorry for Connecticut, Cincinnati, and South Florida yet. With all the defections, as well as the desperation for the Catholic 7 to leave and take the naming rights to the Big East, they might be left holding all the NCAA tournament credits and the exit fee fund left behind. There is talk that this funding will be in the neighborhood of $68 million. That is better than a sharp stick in the eye, anyway.
In any event, the main thing to keep an eye on is what happens to Notre Dame. That will have to get resolved pretty quickly.
The 2013 Greg Schiano Pansiness In Scheduling Award for the ACC
Nobody rode the coattails of weak scheduling any farther than Greg Schiano. As noted here previously, Rutgers rise to mediocrity was accompanied by a rather obvious shift to absolutely putrid OOC scheduling. Well, it worked…as Rutgers is now in the Big 10 and Schiano is now in the NFL. In the meantime, let’s take a look at the OOC schedules for the ACC teams. In the spirit of the Oscars, who gets the Greg Schiano award for the ACC in 2013?
First, let’s look at the OOC schedules (courtesy of http://www.theacc.com):
- Boston College: Villanova, @ USC, Army, @ New Mexico State
- Clemson: Georgia, South Carolina State, The Citadel, @ South Carolina
- Duke: North Carolina Central, @ Memphis, Troy, Navy
- Florida State: Nevada, Bethune-Cookman, Idaho, @ Florida
- Georgia Tech: Elon, @ BYU, Alabama A&M, Georgia
- Maryland: Florida Int’l, Old Dominion, @ UConn, West Virginia
- Miami: Florida Atlantic, Florida, Savannah State, @ USF
- North Carolina: @ South Carolina, Middle Tennessee, East Carolina, Old Dominion
- NC State: Louisiana Tech, Richmond, Central Michigan, East Carolina
- Pittsburgh: New Mexico, Old Dominion, @ Navy, Notre Dame
- Syracuse: Penn State (Neutral site), @ Northwestern, Wagner, Tulane
- Virginia: BYU, Oregon, VMI, Ball State
- Va Tech: Alabama (Neutral site), Western Carolina, @ East Carolina, Marshall
- Wake Forest: Presbyterian, Louisiana-Monroe, @Army, @ Vanderbilt
Old Dominion might have the toughest schedule East of the Mississippi, with games against Maryland, Pitt, and North Carolina. Heck, let’s add them to the conference! Just kidding.
Notably, only a handful of teams play more than one AQ-conference team. Clemson plays Georgia and South Carolina. Maryland plays West Virginia and UConn (kinda, sorta). Miami plays Florida and USF (kinda sorta). Syracuse plays Penn State and Northwestern. So those 4 teams can be eliminated from the Schiano Award.
Virginia Tech plays Alabama, Virginia plays Oregon, Florida State plays Florida, Pitt plays Notre Dame, and Boston College plays Southern Cal. That is five teams that are taking on elite teams, kings of the sport. We can eliminate them too. That leaves but 5.
Georgia and Southern Carolina may or may not be Kings, but they are darn goods teams. We can eliminate North Carolina and Georgia Tech. Down to 3 teams.
Wake Forest plays @ Vanderbilt and @ Army. Two road OOC games against decent programs. Heck, Greg Schiano would not have scheduled a road game against Vandy in the same year as a road trip to Army, so we’ll eliminate the Demon Deacons. Down to 2.
The two finalists are Duke and North Carolina State. Duke’s toughest game is either Navy or @ Memphis. Yep… one of the worst teams in all of FBS may be Duke’s “toughest” game. For North Carolina State, home games against Louisiana Tech and East Carolina are the choices. Wait a minute… North Carolina State is not even going on the road at all! Four home games and zero games against any BCS-level programs? Methinks we have a winner here.
The 2013 Greg Schiano Pansiness in Schedule Award for the ACC goes to… the North Carolina State Wolfpack!
Conference Realignment–What if the ACC, Big 10, SEC, and Big XII Worked Together?
So far, conference realignment has been about taking… usually in the form of a happy conference (stealing a school), a happy school (happy to be stolen) and–cue the sad trombone–a sad conference (losing a school). So far, the unhappy conference has usually been the Big East, but the Big XII has lost Missouri, Texas A&M, Colorado, and Nebraska, while the ACC has lost Maryland. Only the Pac-12, SEC, and Big 10 have been exclusively happy. In the meantime, there are rumors upon rumors of the ACC being carved up, with fewer (but existing) rumors regarding the Big 10 eying more Big XII schools. But what if the ACC, Big 10, SEC, and Big XII sat down and worked on a plan that would keep each of these conferences roughly happy, while allowing each conference to arguably expand its market base?
Consider that the Big 10 has eyes on the Southeast market, but is leery of alienating its midwestern base/roots. While some people talk about expanding to 18 or 20, these additions always involve Michigan and/or Ohio State moving to the eastern side. On the other hand, the Big XII has a grant of rights that makes it more difficult to pry away a school. But what if everyone sat down and came up with a plan that would kind of/sort of make everyone happier.
First, the Big XII would give up its GOR rights for Kansas, allowing them to slide to the Big 10. In exchange, the ACC would give up Pitt, who would slide to the Big XII. The SEC would give up Missouri. In exchange for Missouri, the ACC would give up North Carolina State. Missouri would go to the Big 10. The Big 10 would be at 16, the SEC at 14. At 10 members, the Big XII would have the option of taking Cincinnati and USF to move into further new markets (Ohio and Florida), while also adding a conference game. The ACC could take UConn–adding a new market to replace the NC State “market” lost. The ACC could also take Temple, adding a private school in the Pennsylvania market.
This would result in:
SEC East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, NC State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Kentucky
SEC West: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi, Miss State, and Texas A&M.
Big 10 West: Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa
Big 10 East: Ohio State, Penn State, Maryland, Michigan, Rutgers, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Big XII South: Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Big XII North: West Virginia, Pitt, Cincy, USF, Iowa State, Kansas State
ACC Atlantic: UConn, BC, Temple, Louisville, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, (ND)
ACC Coastal: Syracuse, Duke, Wake Forest, Virginia, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, (Navy–same deal as ND, only less money?)
Issues:
Big XII loses Kansas–a major basketball power. However, Kansas is also terrible at football. The Big XII stays strong in football at the top by adding Cincy and USF–two beatable teams in great markets for recruiting. Cincy and USF are on the upswing in hoops too. Pitt is very established in hoops. A nice home-and-home pod with Pitt and Cincy for West Virginia.
SEC loses Missouri, but picks up NC State. A market for market swap that probably hurts the SEC somewhat. But the SEC adds a school that gives inroads into North Carolina, while further fitting in better on the Eastern side. If, in 10 years, the SEC and Big 10 decide to carve up the ACC–the SEC has a lure for North Carolina–State is already there. Meanwhile, NC State is more of an SEC school in terms of football zeal by the fans. The basketball program could thrive freed from the shadow of Duke and UNC too.
The Big 10 gets a stronger Western flank with Missouri and Kansas. With both schools freed of games against the powers of the SEC and Big XII, they could thrive. The divisions finally start to make geographic sense, allowing for a 9 game schedule–7 games inter-division, plus two games against other division.
The ACC loses NC State and Pitt–two decent football programs. UConn and Temple are a downgrade… but this staves off a loss of the major football powers and the major markets/leaders.
Of course, in a perfect world, the existing conferences could sit down and make complete geographic sense. But that cannot happen. In the interim, however, the conferences could work to share markets to allow all TV deals to slide upwards. Although it is will get the most criticism, the Big XII would really be the big winner here. The adds of Pitt, Cincy, and USF would open up three major recruiting markets, without exactly taking on terrible metro markets (Pitt, Cincy, Tampa).
What do you think? Even if impossible, does it make sense?
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