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Archive for the tag “predictions”

01 May 2013

Notes from Recent Preseason Polls

On Monday, I noticed two offseason polls of interest: the first one was a post Spring football poll for 2013 by ESPN’s  Mark Schlabach  and the second poll was for college basketball on CBS Sportsline.

Here’s a quick breakdown of each:

Football Top 25

ACC (3) 4. Louisville, 12. Clemson, 14. Florida State

Big 10 (5)

Big 12 (5)

SEC (6)

Pac 12 (4)

Notre Dame was ranked #10.

I’m excited about the GOR signed last week, but I’m embarrassed by the lack of solid football programs in the conference.  The potential is there-I’m speaking about Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State-for the ACC to consistently have at least five teams in the Top 25.

Basketball Top 26

On the other hand, the new ACC received a ton of respect in the Sportline Poll.  Four ACC teams were ranked in the Top 11 and seven were ranked overall.

ACC (7) Louisville, Duke, UNC, Syracuse in Top 11

BIG 10 (5)

BIG 12 (1)

Pac 12 (2)

SEC (3)

Florida State and Louisville were the only ACC schools to appear in both (football and basketball) polls.  FSU will certainly move up in basketball if Andrew Wiggins picks the Seminoles in the next two weeks.

Strength in Basketball Helpful for ACC Network?

Most media pundits have pointed to the direct correlation between football performance and television money.  However, few mention the fact that conference network money is driven by “quality” inventory beyond football.  I believe the number of solid basketball programs with diehard fan bases will make the ACC Network viable for ESPN and profitable for all of the teams that recently made a commitment to the conference.  How many people are going to be watching the SEC network? (FYI: I will not watch.)  All of the notable football games are covered by the national networks.  Are people going to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt in basketball?  Meanwhile, the Big 10 has a similar advantage to the ACC with several viable non-football programs to provide year round inventory and interest.

Posted by wtnoleacc in ACC Network, Basketball, Football, FSU Correspondent, Rankings, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , ,
18 Apr 2013

NBA Draft & The ACC

The April 16, 2013, deadline has come and gone, meaning that anyone who decides to go pro between now and April 28, 2013, will make that decision as a point-of-no-return.  That will not stop folks from doing so, but the consequences will be a bit sharper.  At this point, those eligible for the NBA draft are what they are.  There are a number of ACC players that will be among the players drafted.  Who are they?

First of all, who are the early entries from ACC schools so far?  CBS Sportsline has a nice list going.  Here are the players from the ACC schools on the list:

  • Steven Adams, Pitt
  • Lorenzo Brown, NC State
  • Reggie Bullock, North Carolina
  • Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
  • Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
  • Alex Len, Maryland
  • CJ Leslie, NC State

Second, where will these kids go?  Well, here is where Chad Ford slots these guys, and other ACC draft-eligibles, in terms of overall NBA talent:

  • Len, #8
  • Carter-Williams, #10
  • Dieng, #17
  • Mason Plumlee, Duke, #18
  • Adams, #26
  • Brown, #42
  • Bullock, #45
  • Russ Smith, Louisville, #53
  • Leslie, #61
  • James Southerland, Syracuse, #81
  • Richard Howell, NC State, #82
  • Ryan Kelly, Duke, #88
  • Michael Snaer, Florida State, #92

A few other players to note.  These guys are all still undecided: Shane Larkin of Miami is at #30; Rasheed Sulaimon of Duke is at #48; and CJ Fair of Syracuse is at 71.  The decision should be tough for Larkin, but fairly easy for Fair.  You want to be pretty certain you get a first round contract if you are going to leave.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
22 Mar 2013
1 Comment

ESPN’s Big Monday (UPDATE)

UPDATE:  Our guest writer just pointed out that the Miami Herald reported the following:

The ACC says it likely will take the Big East’s 7 p.m. slot on ESPN’s Big Monday next season. The new Big East – including seven Big East defectors, Xavier, Creighton and Butler – is shifting to the new Fox Sports 1, a 24-hour-network that debuts in August, replacing Speed.

So it looks good for the ACC to get the Big Monday slot.  Good news there. 
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Mar 2013
4 Comments

ESPN’s Big Monday

This blog entry was contributed by a guest, who chooses to remain anonymous (for now).  The Confidential greatly appreciates this guest’s opinion and welcomes others to submit guest entries–whether anonymous or not. 

Yes, we have been told that football drives the bus.  We get it! ACC football has a lot of questions to answer.   But for the purpose of this singular guest blog entry, let us concentrate on what the ACC does historically well … basketball.

For the last 30 years, the ACC and Big East have essentially traded punches in their all-out pursuit of being the dominant college hoops conference in the land.   Fittingly, I propose we begin our study with the memorable UNC-Georgetown final in 1982.   The conferences clash for the first time. In Dean, MJ, Worthy, Perkins vs. John Thompson, Patrick and Sleepy Floyd.   Great theater. And a three-decade long tug of war began with UNC claiming an initial victory.

 Including ’82, in 31 seasons, there have been 124 Final Four spots up for grabs.   And a team from the ACC or Big East claimed 49 of those berths. That’s a slick 40 percent and that does NOT include FF berths claimed by Louisville or Cincinnati in their pre-Big East days.

Now, the ACC’s immediate future won’t include Big East basketball heavies such as Georgetown, Marquette, UConn or Cincinnati, but it is safe to say when you combined the hoops heritages of (alphabetical order as not to offend anyone) Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, NCSU, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Virginia under one roof, the word “juggernaut” can justifiably be tossed around.

And, one cannot with good conscious sneeze at the histories and accomplishments of schools like Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson or Florida State. Even Miami looks like a solid #2 seed this year, and Virginia Tech can beat anyone at Cassel Coliseum on a given night.

Oh. Maryland. Never mind. Another topic.

But there is no avoiding the fact that ACC hoops will be King. And it begs the question, what and where is the King’s throne?

My answer is that it should be on ESPN’s Big Monday at 7 p.m.

That’s right. Other than securing a football commitment from the Golden Domers, I think seizing the early slot on ESPN’s Big Monday should be near the top of the ACC’s Honey To Do List.

In the college hoops universe, Tuesday’s are Super, Wednesday’s are wonderful and Thursday’s are weekend-esque, but Monday’s are BIG. They are the proper and fitting platform for Kings.

Think about it.

  • The NFL rules the majority of January (and into February, Super Bowl). On at least two weekends, playoff games are scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. And yet, January is when the conference hoops slate gets started. These are important games. The ACC should seek to avoid these primo matchups being engulfed by Super Storm NFL Playoffs.
  • Since weekend hoops games are necessary, note that around 90% of weekend college hoops games fall on Saturdays. On weekends, anything beyond the NFL is sucked up by the NBA, the PGA Tour (I love the West Coast swing!!) and NASCAR (Daytona). So after gorging on sports all weekend and fending off the usual Sunday night/Monday morning depression, Big Monday is always there with open arms waiting to kick start a new sporting week.
  • There is a reason that traditionally ESPN puts its best CBB crew (Sean McDonough, Jay Bilas, Bill Raftery) on at 7 p.m. on Big Monday. Sorry, Mike Patrick, Dick Vitale, Doris Burke, Len Elmore and Adrian Branch, need not apply. For the record, Jimmy Dykes (aka John Calipari’s Press Secretary), Fran Frashcilla (Euro basketball does not matter to me) and Andy Katz (Mark Few’s shoulder to cry on) are NOT Big Monday worthy. Sean, Jay and Bill are as good as any three-man booth in any sport. They’ll do the ACC serious justice. They are BIG time.
  • Academically, the ACC’s Big Monday combatants could travel on Sundays and potentially have their athletes back in the classroom by Noon on Tuesday. This fact should matter in the equation.

I also realize there is a reluctance by ACC charter schools to accept anything that might be tainted Big East.

I get it. I graduated from a Big East school. I later worked in an ACC Athletic Department, so I am well aware of and greatly appreciate the ACC’s proud history.  I just hope that growth opportunities — such as a unique and almost exclusive platform on Big Monday – are not simply bypassed out of conference spite (a.k.a. anti-Big East bias).

In some limited instances such as Big Monday, what was once terrific for the Big East can render even greater returns for the ACC.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Feb 2013
1 Comment

Signing Day!

Today is the day that teenagers–at least the slow-to-decide or overly-dramatic ones–decide which college football franchise they will be associated with  for the next 4-5 years.  There are lots of battles to watch today–will Clemson overcome Florida State in the recruiting rankings?  Can Louisville or Miami make a run at them?  Can the new coaching staffs at North Carolina State, Boston College, and Syracuse close strong?  Will Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia keep themselves close to the upper echelon, despite disappointing seasons?  Is Notre Dame back?  How about the rest of tobacco road–will Duke, North Carolina, and Wake Forest show that they are not just places for hoops recruits?  And does anyone, anywhere really give a crap about Maryland?

Well, we know the answer to the last question–no!  Even the Big 10 shrugs with a “meh,” and refers to maps and markets.  But everything else is unanswered.  Tune in here and elsewhere for recruiting information on this huge day.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Recruiting and tagged , , , , , , , ,
13 Jan 2013

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Final

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Final version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (13-1): The SEC proves again that it can take care of business on the national stage.  But Alabama deserves special credit for turning into a dynasty. Wow.
  2. Notre Dame (12-1): The Fighting Irish played a tough schedule and came out 12-0.  Sure, they lost to Alabama.  That just makes them #2.
  3. Ohio State (12-0):  The Buckeyes were idle during bowl season, due to an improvident decision by its athletic director to not sit out last year’s bowl.  Urban Meyer has things going in Columbus though.
  4. Oregon (12-1): A great January for Oregon.  They beat Kansas State by a decent margin and, most importantly, kept Chip Kelly.
  5. Georgia (12-2): Georgia’s only losses were to South Carolina and Alabama.  Hard to argue with that.
  6. South Carolina (11-2): South Carolina lost two games all season–to LSU and Florida.  Gives them the edge over Texas A&M.
  7. Texas A&M (11-2): The Aggies showed that they belonged in the SEC.  The only losses were to LSU and Florida.
  8. Stanford (12-2): The Cardinal have that inexplicable loss to Washington and a loss to Notre Dame.  Otherwise, Stanford beat Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA (twice), Wisconsin, and USC.  That’s all.
  9. Florida (11-2):  The Gators were dismantled by Louisville, but had a very good season overall.  Hard to have Florida State leapfrog them when Florida won the head-to-head game.
  10. Florida State (12-2): Florida State had a great season.  That loss to North Carolina State remains hard to justify though.
  11. Louisville (11-2).
  12. LSU (10-3).
  13. Clemson (11-2).
  14. Kansas State (11-2).
  15. Oklahoma (10-3).
  16. Northwestern (10-3).
  17. Boise State (11-2).
  18. Utah State (11-2).
  19. Northern Illinois (12-2).
  20. Cincinnati (10-3).
  21. Nebraska (10-4).
  22. Kent State (11-3).
  23. Vanderbilt (9-4).
  24. Oregon State (9-4).
  25. Penn State (8-4).

* * *

121.  Illinois (2-10).  The Illini were overmatched in the Big 10 this year.  2013 should be better though.

122. Kentucky (2-10).  Kentucky beat Samford and Kent State.  That Kent State win looks pretty good now!

123. Kansas (1-11).  Kansas was the only Big XII team to not make a bowl.  Going to be a tough rebuilding process.

124. Colorado (1-11).  The Buffaloes actually kept it close against Utah to finish the season.  But there was too little of that in 2012.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
16 Dec 2012

ACC Goes Bowling: Duke vs. Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl

The bowl season began yesterday with a few battles flying well below the radar.  Moving beyond that mixed metaphor, however, it is time to begin analyzing the various bowl matchups featuring present and future members of the ACC.  Today’s featured matchup is the Belk Bowl, which will feature Duke and Cincinnati.  The game will be played at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, December 27.

How they got here (courtesy of http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Sked2012.htm) :

Duke (ACC)
9/1 Sat vs. Florida International W 46 26
9/8 Sat @ Stanford L 13 50
9/15 Sat vs. North Carolina Central W 54 17
9/22 Sat vs. Memphis W 38 14
9/29 Sat @ *Wake Forest W 34 27
10/6 Sat vs. *Virginia W 42 17
10/13 Sat @ *Virginia Tech L 20 41
10/20 Sat vs. *North Carolina W 33 30
10/27 Sat @ *Florida State L 7 48
11/3 Sat vs. *Clemson L 20 56
11/17 Sat @ *Georgia Tech L 24 42
11/24 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida) L 45 52
12/27 Thu vs. Cincinnati @ Charlotte, NC Belk Bowl

6-6

 376 420

Cincinnati (Big East)
9/6 Thu vs. *Pittsburgh W 34 10
9/15 Sat vs. Delaware State W 23 7
9/29 Sat vs. Virginia Tech W 27 24 @ Landover, MD
10/6 Sat vs. Miami (Ohio) W 52 14
10/13 Sat vs. Fordham W 49 17
10/20 Sat @ Toledo L 23 29
10/26 Fri @ *Louisville L 31 34
11/3 Sat vs. *Syracuse W 35 24
11/10 Sat @ *Temple W 34 10
11/17 Sat vs. *Rutgers L 3 10
11/23 Fri vs. *South Florida W 27 10
12/1 Sat @ *Connecticut W 34 17
12/27 Thu vs. Duke @ Charlotte, NC Belk Bowl

9-3

 372 206

Key Stats:

PASSING YARDS

Cincinnati:  231.0 pg, 63rd Overall
Duke: 277.6 pg, 32nd Overall

RUSHING YARDS

Cincinnati: 199.8 pg, 32nd Overall
Duke: 119.0 pg, 107th Overall

POINTS FOR

Cincinnati: 31.0 pg, 48th Overall
Duke: 31.3 pg, 45th Overall

POINTS AGAINST

Cincinnati: 17.2 pg, 12th Overall

Duke: 35.0, 104th Overall
Analysis:
While the Confidential always likes to be a “homer” if possible.  So perhaps the analysis here is slanted by that.
Duke has played a much tougher schedule, but they lost many of the games against good opponents.  Often, by a lot.  Duke beat one bowl team, North Carolina.  Cincinnati beat three, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech.
But one factor favoring Duke in this game is that Cincy has lost its coach, Butch Jones.  We have seen Cincinnati (and many other teams) come out flat when playing a bowl game under such circumstances.  On the other hand, West Virginia rode Bill Stewart to a Fiesta Bowl victory and the removal of his interim head coach tag.  So even that one negative aspect is more of a question mark than certainty.
Another factor favoring Duke is the proximity to the location.  Duke fans should be relishing this opportunity to see the Blue Devils in this game.  They will have home field advantage.  Too much emotion on Duke’s side for this one.
Prediction:  Duke 28, Cincinnati 27.
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
13 Dec 2012
2 Comments

R.I.P. Big East

Well, the Confidential is all about the Atlantic Coast Conference.  That being said, there is no denying that the ACC has had a huge role in killing the Big East, taking Miami, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, and Notre Dame in the past 10 years or so.  That’s a conference unto itself.  Thus, today’s news that the Big East will announce the exiting of more schools–the seven basketball-oriented, football-eschewing, Catholic schools–is met with some guilt.  That the Big East is dying is unfortunate.  Moving forward, however, the question is what happens next?

The general consensus is that the 7 Catholic schools will somehow, someway form a new conference.  It might be called the Big East.  It might be called something else.  Who knows?  The consensus also is that additional, similar schools will be invited.  If so, this is what the Confidential would like to see:

Catholic Basketball Conference–East: Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Georgetown, Villanova, Fordham

Catholic Basketball Conference–West: DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, St. Louis, Dayton, Xavier

If they wanted to get crazy, they could great a western flank, with Gonzaga, Loyolla Marymount, Santa Clara, and Portland, among others.  Either way, this would be the Catholic Basketball Conference–why not?

What about football?  What about football.  Yikes.  These are dark times for UConn, Cincinnati, USF, and Temple.  Newcomers UCF, SMU, Houston, Memphis, East Carolina, Tulane, and Navy are not too thrilled either.  While some of those schools may eventually get promoted to a top 5 conference, they cannot worry about that right now.

Without making a prediction, this is what the Confidential would like to see is two larger conferences form, centered around geography.  They can use the C-USA and MWC labels, as necessary.  It is important for the talent to be consolidated into two conferences so that there are more, better games.  This is the only way those schools will ever show any separation.  Remember, Boise State played a rather unimpressive schedule en route to national prominence.  It is up to these schools to schedule strong OOC and follow the same pattern.  If a small school in Boise, Idaho, can do it, any school can.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , ,
29 Nov 2012

ACC Football Predictions for December 1, 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 8-2, improvidently trusting Clemson and Florida State, improving the overall record to a respectable 86-32.  Pretty interesting game tonight, as the ACC’s Louisville battles the Big Ten’s Rutgers in a battle for the Big East Championship.  On to the week 14 predictions:

Pittsburgh (5-6) @ South Florida (3-9), 7:00 p.m.  The Panthers are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  The Bulls are over-matched, but playing on Senior Night for an embattled head coach.  This probably should go one of two ways, with the emotion for South Florida either being very high or very low.  So the Confidential with out-think itself by predicting the emotion to be merely medium.  If so, Pitt wins.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, South Florida 13.

ACC Championship Game

#13 Florida State (10-2) v Georgia Tech (6-6), 8:00 p.m.  The ACC having a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the BCS is only good to the extent that it means a bigger payout.  In all other respects, it would be an embarrassment.  Of course, if Georgia Tech loses, they would seek a waiver to play in a bowl game, despite being 6-7.  In the end, they could end up 6-8.  And that’s your ACC Championship Game entrant for the Coastal Division everyone!  Florida State, however, lost disappointingly to Florida.  A few coaches are either leaving or interviewing for head coach positions elsewhere.  Promotions are nice, but distracting.  Closer than expected here.  Prediction: Florida State 35, Georgia Tech 24.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
22 Nov 2012
2 Comments

ACC Football Predictions for Thanksgiving Weekend 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Not sure whether there should be analysis of Louisville or UConn…. ha ha ha.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 6-2, improving the overall record to a respectable 78-30.  On to the week 13 predictions:

Friday, November 23, 2012

Syracuse (6-5) @ Temple (4-6), 11:00 a.m.   You’ll have to stop your Black Friday shopping a bit early to catch this one.  Syracuse showed that its football is definitely on the upswing with a win on the road against Missouri, who was itself desperate for a win.  The Orange are banged up and this is Temple’s final game of the season.  An upset would not be shocking, but the Confidential will lean toward the ‘Cuse keeping the momentum going.  Prediction: Syracuse 33, Temple 21.

Saturday November 24, 2012

Georgia Tech (6-5) @ #3 Georgia (10-1), 12:00 p.m.  Maybe rivalry week allows teams to throw out the records.  But it is hard to really feel like Georgia Tech can win this game.  They have been playing a bit better lately.  Still, this one has a chance to get ugly.  Prediction: Georgia 30, Georgia Tech 17.

Virginia (4-7) @ Virginia Tech (5-6), 12:00 p.m.  As much as the Hokies have struggled all year, they are one win away from a bowl.  Virginia is an enigma still–no idea which version of the team will show up from week-to-week.  The Hokies have home field advantage, which has to be worth something.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 17.

#21 Rutgers (9-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-6), 12:00 p.m.  This has been a great week for Rutgers and a 10th win would just be the icing on the cake.  Pitt must win to have a chance at a bowl.  No matter what happens, Rutgers gets to play Louisville for the BCS bowl berth next week, so perhaps the Scarlet Knights will come out flat.  Upset special here.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Rutgers 20.

Miami (6-5) @ Duke (6-5), 12:30 p.m.  The Blue Devils have been coasting.  Miami has been another hard team to figure out.  With the Hurricanes pulling the plug on the post-season, it will be interesting to see whether they show up.  If Al Golden can get them motivated, Miami should win.  For Duke, this game presents the opportunity to regain some much needed momentum.  Prediction: Miami 31 , Duke 28.

Maryland (4-7) @ North Carolina (7-4), 3:00 p.m.  The only thing more surprising than Maryland leaving the ACC is the lack of anyone really caring.  Somewhat odd, really.  The Terps should have rivalries after all these years, but seemingly do not.  For Randy Edsall, a win here would be a great way to celebrate the offseason.  For the Tar Heels, bowl ineligibility means that this is their last chance to play football for several months.  Prediction: North Carolina 30, Maryland 10.

Boston College (2-9) @ North Carolina State (6-5), 3:00 p.m.  Well, another version of the Tom O’Brien Bowl.  Give credit to Boston College, they have played tough two weeks in a row.  A coaching change is inevitable, but the team has not quit at all.  An upset to send the coaching staff off would be a great way to finish the season.  The Wolfpack could really use another win though.  If they can’t beat BC…. well, do you really deserve a bowl?  Prediction: North Carolina State 24, Boston College 20.

Vanderbilt (7-4) @ Wake Forest (5-6), 3:30 p.m.  The Demon Deacons are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  Vanderbilt has its bowl game locked up.  Another reason for Vandy to be comfortable is that they are coming off the high of beating Tennessee.  Badly.  At the same time, Wake Forest has been as unimpressive as possible in getting to 5 wins.  It’s just hard to envision Wake pulling this one out.  Prediction: Vanderbilt 24, Wake Forest 17.

#6 Florida (10-1) @ #10 Florida State (10-1), 3:30 p.m.  The game of the week–two top 10 teams battling to see who gets to 10-1.  Florida has now been impressive in his recent cupcake wins.  Florida State has been only slightly better.  Neither team is peaking right now.  If the Seminoles want to be considered “back,” this is a game that they have to win.  In a pure homerism pick, the Confidential thinks it will happen.  Prediction: Florida State 28, Florida 21.

#13 South Carolina (9-2) @ #12 Clemson (10-1), 7:00 p.m.  The ACC regular season finale ends with a bang, as Clemson looks to avenge its disappointing loss to the Gamecocks last year.  This Clemson team has been scoring at will of late.  Unfortunately, last week the Tigers allowed North Carolina State to pretty much do the same thing.  South Carolina has to be licking its chops.  Homerism prevails again here.  Prediction: Clemson 35, South Carolina 24.

Idle: None

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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