The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the tag “predictions”

23 Oct 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 8

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 8 version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (7-0): Alabama keeps on rolling, with a romp over Tennessee.  Mississippi State this week is not the automatic win that most would have assumed in August.  Next up: Mississippi State.
  2. Oregon (7-0): The Ducks dismantled Arizona State to remain perfect on the season.  There is little chance of this team not making it to 8-0; see opponent.  Next up: Colorado.
  3. Notre Dame (7-0): The Fighting Irish struggled to beat a very unimpressive Brigham Young team.  This ranking would be in jeopardy, but for this week’s opponent giving Notre Dame a chance to rebound.  Next up: @ Oklahoma.
  4. Florida (7-0): The Gators obliterated suddenly-unimpressive South Carolina.  The edge over Kansas State is very narrow though.  Next up: @ Georgia.
  5. Kansas State (7-0): The win in Morgantown would have been even more impressive if Texas Tech had not demolished the Mountaineers the week before.  A great win nonetheless, as the Wildcats are knocking on the door of the top 3 or 4.  Next up: Texas Tech.
  6. Ohio State (8-0).  The Buckeyes keep on rolling, with a win over Purdue.  The first team to 8-0 also.  The sanctions bowl this week for the B1G.  Next up: @ Penn State.
  7. Florida State (7-1):  The Seminoles did what they needed to do in beating Miami in Miami.  This week’s game against Duke suddenly looks interesting.  Next up: Duke.
  8. Oklahoma (5-1): The Sooners’ destruction of Kansas was expected.  They get a real test this week with undefeated Notre Dame coming to town.  Next up: Notre Dame.
  9. LSU (7-1):  The Tigers went into Lubbock and defeated the Aggies, albeit by a narrow margin.  Still, a good win is a good win.  Next up: Alabama on November 3.
  10. Georgia (6-1): Georgia defeated hapless Kentucky.  But by less than a touchdown?  Nobody below the Bulldogs deserved to leapfrog them though.  Next up: Florida.
  11. Louisville (7-0):   Next up: Cincinnati.
  12. Southern California (6-1):  Next up: @ Arizona.
  13. Oregon State (6-0).  Next up: @ Washington.
  14. Clemson (6-1).  Next up: @ Wake Forest.
  15. Rutgers (7-0).  Next up: Kent State.
  16. Mississippi State (7-0).  Next up: @ Alabama.
  17. Michigan (5-2).  Next up: Nebraska.
  18. Nebraska (5-2).  Next up: @ Michigan.
  19. Ohio (7-0). Next up: @ Miami.
  20. Boise State (6-1).  Next up: @ Wyoming.
  21. Louisiana Tech (6-1). Next up: @ New Mexico State.
  22. South Carolina (6-2).  Next up: Tennessee.
  23. West Virginia (5-2).  Next up: TCU on November 3.
  24. Texas Tech (6-1).  Next up: @ Kansas State.
  25. Stanford (5-2).  Next up: Washington State.

* * *

121.  Indiana (2-5).  While Indiana has two wins, they are over FCS Indiana State and brand new FBS team UMass–the worst team in all of FBS (only winless team, in fact).  The worst resume of the 2 win teams.

122. Colorado (1-6).  Colorado lost by 44 points to USC.  And that seems like a moral victory for the Buffaloes–the only team on this list to beat a conference foe.

123. Boston College (1-6).  Boston College–was equally inept last year, but then rallied late.  Is it possible for history to repeat itself?

124. Kansas (1-6).  Kansas looks like a real risk to go 1-11.  The Charlie Weis era.  Enjoy.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
19 Oct 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 8

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential struggled to a 3-3 record–the worst week of the season.   Still, the Confidential is at a respectable 52-18 so far.  On to the week 8 predictions:

Friday October 19, 2012

Connecticut (3-3) @ Syracuse (2-4), 8:00 p.m.  The Orange simply cannot lose this game.  If the Doug Marrone era is not going to fall completely off the tracks, Syracuse needs to win this much of a winnable game.  UConn is struggling and coached by the guy Syracuse fired.  Just a must win.  Prediction: Syracuse 24, UConn 17.

Saturday October 20, 2012

Virginia Tech (4-3) @ #14 Clemson (5-1), noon.  This is a rematch of last year’s conference title game, but the teams are headed in different directions right now.  Virginia Tech had to rally to beat Duke, while Clemson has only lost to Florida State.  Given that Clemson is at home, as well as Virginia Tech’s defensive mortality, it is difficult to pick Virginia Tech to pull the upset.  Prediction: Clemson 35-Virginia Tech 24.

Wake Forest (3-3) @ Virginia (2-5), 12:30 p.m.  The Demon Deacons have been absolutely, positively mediocre.  Virginia is jealous of that right now.  Again, however, Virginia is the home team, which has to count for something.  The Confidential just does not see Wake Forest taking the win here.  Prediction: Virginia 21, Wake Forest 20.

Boston College (1-5) @ Georgia Tech (2-4), 3:00 p.m.  Boston College has been downright awful this year, with no wins over FBS teams.  Georgia Tech has been equally bad lately.  This two teams are at and/or near the basement in the ACC right now.  Like Syracuse, Georgia Tech simply MUST win this game.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 38-Boston College 13.

Pittsburgh (2-4) @ Buffalo (1-5), 3:30 p.m.  The Steelers and Bills face off in a clash of old industrial towns.  Wait, what?  Pittsburgh lost its momentum after the Virginia Tech win.  Buffalo has never really had any momentum yet.  One has to think the Bulls will be fired up for this rare visit from a BCS-level team.  Still, Pitt has to win this one, right?  Prediction: Pittsburgh 36, Buffalo 10.

North Carolina State (4-2) @ Maryland (4-2), 3:30 p.m.  While North Carolina State is not too much of a surprise, Maryland certainly is.  Good thing that Terrapins fans did not run Randy Edsall out of town.  Most likely.  Maryland does have to play a bunch of good teams down the stretch.  Reality sets in this week.  Prediction: North Carolina State 27, Maryland 14.

North Carolina (5-2) @ Duke (5-2), 7:00 p.m.  Obviously, a great basketball matchup, this is a pretty darn good football game this year.  For Duke, the season-ending slate is simply brutal.  This may be their last, best chance to get to bowl-eligibility.  Who better than the Tar Heels to stop them?  Prediction: North Carolina 24, Duke 20.

#12 Florida State (6-1) @ Miami (4-3), 8:00 p.m.  Miami has been tough to figure out.  There is really nothing in their performance to suggest that they can win this game.  Then again, there is everything out there to suggest that Florida State could simply lose it.  Typically, however, Florida State stumbles most egregiously in North Carolina.  Prediction: Florida State 45-Miami 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
17 Oct 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 8

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 8 version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (6-0): Alabama continued the trend of Missouri being dominated in the SEC.  Halfway to another SEC-CCG.  Next up: @ Tennessee.
  2. Oregon (6-0): The Ducks were idle this week.  Up next–surprising Arizona State.   Next up: @ Arizona State.
  3. Notre Dame (6-0): The Fighting Irish added to their impressive victories by toppling Stanford.  They seem “back” under Kelly.  Next up: Brigham Young.
  4. Florida (6-0): The Gators did what they needed to do in beating Vanderbilt.  Next up: South Carolina.
  5. Kansas State (6-0): Kansas State took care of a game Iowa State squad.  Bill Snyder has this team on a roll–but the toughest road trip of the year looms.  Next up: @ West Virginia.
  6. Ohio State (7-0).  While it has been a comparatively unimpressive schedule so far, Ohio State has handled everyone.  Night and day from last year.  Next up: Purdue.
  7. Florida State (6-1):  The Seminoles did what they were supposed to do this week–annihilating Boston College.  Despite Miami’s difficulties this year, the Seminoles have to focus.  Next up:  @ Miami.
  8. Oklahoma (4-1): The Sooners’ destruction of Texas was admirable, but it may say more about how far Texas has fallen.  A rivalry win is always great though.  Next up: Kansas.
  9. LSU (6-1):  The Tigers defeat of South Carolina puts them back into contention.  A suddenly hot Texas A&M team is up next though.  Next up: @ Texas A&M.
  10. Georgia (5-1): Georgia has had a week to lick its wounds.  This does not bode well for Kentucky.  Next up: @ Kentucky.
  11. Louisville (6-0):   Next up: South Florida.
  12. Southern California (5-1):  Next up: Colorado.
  13. Oregon State (5-0).  Next up: Utah.
  14. West Virginia (5-1):  Next up: Kansas State.
  15. South Carolina (6-1):  Next up: @ Florida.
  16. Clemson (5-1).  Next up: Virginia Tech.
  17. Rutgers (6-0).  Next up: @ Temple.
  18. Mississippi State (6-0).  Next up: Middle Tennessee.
  19. Cincinnati (5-0). Next up: @ Toledo.
  20. Ohio (7-0). Next up: @ Miami.
  21. Michigan (4-2).  Next up: Michigan State.
  22. Nebraska (4-2).  Next up: @ Northwestern.
  23. Boise State (5-1).  Next up: UNLV.
  24. Louisiana Tech (5-1). Next up: Idaho.
  25. North Carolina (5-2).  Next up: @ Duke.

* * *

121. Colorado (1-5).  Colorado still does have a win against a conference foe, which is nice.  Unfortunately, that foe is near this list too.

122. Washington State (2-5).  As the losses keep mounting, Colorado gets to leapfrog the team that it managed to beat.  Both teams are pretty bad though.

123. Boston College (1-5).  Boston College was not supposed to keep it close against Florida State.  So it didn’t.

124. Kansas (1-5).  Kansas at least played respectably against Oklahoma State.  The Charlie Weis experience–failing at a University near you.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
11 Oct 2012
2 Comments

ACC Football Predictions for Week 7

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential struggled to a 4-4 record–the worse week of the season.   Still, the Confidential is at a respectable 49-15 so far.  On to the week 7 predictions:

Saturday October 13, 2012

#18 Louisville (5-0) @ Pittsburgh (2-3), 11:00 a.m.   Pitt has been an enigma.  When you believe in them, they fail.  When you give up on them, they pull the upset.  The Confidential believes that they have the best coaching staff in the Big East.  But Pitt will rise to the occasion and defend its home turf.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Louisville 21.

Syracuse (2-3) @ #20 Rutgers (5-0), Noon.   It is no secret that the Confidential is a “homer” when it comes to Syracuse, but rarely predicts based on that homer nature.  It is a jinx-risk thing.  But Rutgers will have the better season when it is all said and done.  Rutgers schedules smart and develops the confidence of its teams.  Syracuse’s challenging schedule has undermined its team confidence.  Prediction: Rutgers 21, Syracuse 19.

Duke (5-1) @ Virginia Tech (3-3), 12:30 p.m.  In most years, this would be a 30-point spread and an easy selection of the Hokies.  But those records cannot be ignored–they are saying something else.  The Confidential has been burned by the Hokies repeatedly this year, but will give them one more chance to show that they are not imploding.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Duke 21.

North Carolina (4-2) @ Miami (4-2), 2:30 p.m.  The Sanctions Bowl!  Look, North Carolina has had a nice season, and Miami has been blown out by top foes on the road.  But note that Miami is home for this game.  That is a huge edge for the Hurricanes.  Prediction: Miami 30, North Carolina 22.

Maryland (3-2) @ Virginia (2-4), 3:00 p.m.  Who saw this coming?  Maryland with more wins than Virginia?  One of Virginia’s wins being a luck win against Penn State?  It is what it is.  If it is a fluke, this will be the week that puts the teams back on their expected course.  Prediction: Virginia 24, Maryland 14.

Boston College (1-4) @ #12 Florida State (5-1), 5:30 p.m.  The Seminoles could not avoid a letdown last week.  They were their own worst enemy.  Boston College just does not have the horses to play with Florida State.  If the Seminoles lose, they have the wrong coaching staff, plain and simple.  Prediction: Florida State 56, Boston College 10.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Oct 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 7

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 7 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (5-0): Nobody is looking as good as Alabama right now, but this has been a weird year.  Nobody seems safe.  Next up: @ Missouri.
  2. Oregon (6-0): The Ducks have looked as dominant as ever.  Will they win the Pac-12 this year?   Next up: @ Arizona State.
  3. Notre Dame (5-0): The Fighting Irish have beaten a decent trio of teams in Michigan, Michigan State, and Miami.  Purdue is no slouch either.  Next up: Stanford
  4. Florida (5-0): The Gators stopped beating up on the SEC mediocrity and took care of LSU.  The East needed that win.  Next up: @ Vanderbilt.
  5. Kansas State (5-0): Kansas State destroyed Kansas.  Having already beaten Oklahoma, they get the edge over West Virginia and South Carolina.  Next up: @ Iowa State.
  6. West Virginia (5-0): The Mountaineers look outstanding.  The Big XII “defenses” are even less of a challenge than the Big East.  Who woulda thunk?  Next up: @ Texas Tech.
  7. South Carolina (6-0): The Gamecocks had no trouble with Georgia and have been quite good this year.  This week is another big test though.  Next up: @ L.S.U.
  8. Ohio State (6-0).  After walloping Nebraska, Ohio State suddenly looks to be “back.”  This week should not change anything.  Next up: Indiana.
  9. Florida State (5-1): After beating Clemson and then South Florida on the road, a letdown against NC State was not unexpected.  A loss was.  Next up: Boston College.
  10. Oklahoma (3-1): The Sooners may have lost to Kansas State, but that is a good football team.  Red River Rivalry Week!  Next up: Texas.
  11. LSU (5-1):  Unlike Georgia, LSU kept it close against Florida.  Another big test this week for the Tigers though.  Next up: South Carolina.
  12. Georgia (5-1): Georgia is supposed to be good.  But “good” teams put up a bigger fight against their conference rivals.  Next up: @ Kentucky.
  13. Louisville (5-0): The Cardinals have been OK this year.  Not truly tested yet though.  Next up: @ Pittsburgh.
  14. Southern California (4-1): The Trojans need some impressive victories.  So far, nothing too special in that regard.  Next up: @ Washington.
  15. Oregon State (4-0).  The Beavers are 4-0–who thought that would happen?  One of the year’s big surprises for sure.  Next up: @ Brigham Young.
  16. Clemson (5-1).  Next up: Virginia Tech.
  17. Texas (4-1). Next up: Oklahoma.
  18. Rutgers (5-0).  Next up: Syracuse.
  19. Louisiana Tech (5-0). Next up: Texas A&M.
  20. Mississippi State (5-0).  Next up: Tennessee.
  21. Cincinnati (4-0). Next up: Fordham.
  22. Ohio (6-0). Next up: Akron.
  23. Michigan (3-2).  Next up: Illinois.
  24. Nebraska (4-2).  Next up: @ Northwestern.
  25. Boise State (4-1).  Next up: Fresno State.

* * *

121. Kentucky (1-5).  The Wildcats have played some good teams, but 1-5 is 1-5.

122. Colorado (1-4).  After beating Washington State, the Buffaloes gave away their momentum with a blowout loss to UCLA.

123. Boston College (1-4).  Losing to Army is a good way to stay on this list.  So good work, B.C.

124. Kansas (1-4).  Kansas loses to instate rival by 40+ points, so Weis decides to practice without the Seniors.  How does that help anything?  The Peter Principle.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
04 Oct 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 6

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential nailed the Miami, Louisiana Tech, and Cincinnati wins last week.  Did not see the Georgia Tech loss (much less the margin of loss) or Duke wins though.  Still, the Confidential is at a robust 45-11 so far.  On to the week 5 predictions:

Friday October 5, 2012

Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Syracuse (1-3), 7:00 p.m.  Pitt started cold, but has been pretty good lately.  Syracuse starts every game cold, but has warmed up considerably in the second half in all games except Minnesota.  All signs point to Pitt being the team headed in the right direction.  And Syracuse has not beaten Pitt since… well, we’d have to look it up.  THAT long.  Prediction: Pitt 28, Syracuse 20.

Saturday October 6, 2012

Boston College (1-3) @ Army (0-4), Noon.   Both teams could use a victory.  Army just lost to FCS stud team Stony Brook, while BC has only beaten FCS New Hampshire.  Army is not going to lose out, but Boston College just needs this game way too much.  A loss could mean a coaching change.  Prediction: Boston College 27, Army 20.

Virginia Tech (3-2) @ North Carolina (3-2), 12:30 p.m.  Virginia Tech is just not its normal self this year.  North Carolina is able to blow out overmatched opponents, but cannot beat the solid ones.  Virginia Tech is not overmatched.  They may even be better than solid.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 20.

Virginia (2-3) @ Duke (4-1), 3:00 p.m.  The Blue Devils can smell a bowl game.  Virginia is having an unimpressive year.  This is Duke’s chance to be more than just a basketball school.  You have to win the winnable home games to take the next step.  Prediction: Duke 30, Virginia 21.

Georgia Tech (2-3) @ Clemson (4-1), 3:30 p.m.  The Bees are in trouble.  The Tigers are coasting.  Georgia Tech should be motivated after a humiliating loss.  Clemson must remain focused on a talented, but struggling opponent.  Clemson likely has too many weapons right now.  Prediction: Clemson 42, Georgia Tech 24.

Wake Forest (3-2) @ Maryland (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  Wake Forest could be in Duke’s shoes right now–2/3 the way to a bowl game.  Instead, Wake has to look at a game like Maryland as a game that it needs to win.  Maryland has been much improved this year.  Edge to the home team.  Prediction: Maryland 24, Wake Forest 21.

Miami (4-1) @ Notre Dame (4-0), 7:00 p.m.  The game of the day.  In 2015, this will be a conference game.  For now, it is matchup of two teams that dominated the past, but have struggled in the present.  Anything can happen in this game.  But Brian Kelly has the Fighting Irish defense looking very good.  Prediction: Notre Dame 21, Miami 16.

Florida State (5-0) @ North Carolina State (3-2), 8:00 p.m.  The Seminoles need to avoid a letdown every week.  They are their own worst enemy.  Or best enemy–if they just stay focused, they can beat anyone.  They certainly can defeat NC State–even on the road.  Prediction: Florida State 34, North Caroline State 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 5

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams. Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 39-9 start to the season.  It is going to get much worse this week.  Only 2 games are such that upsets are very unlikely.  A lot of surprising wins can happen.  On to the week 5 predictions:

September 29, 2012

Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-2), 12:00 p.m.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-2 in conference play, with both being very close games.  One has to think that Georgia Tech will take out its frustrations on this week’s sacrificial lamb, a directional Tennessee school.  Fortunately, Middle Tennessee is not in the Mac.  So Georgia Tech should win easily.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 40, Middle Tennessee 13.

North Carolina State (3-1) @ Miami (3-1), 12:00 p.m.  One of these teams is headed to a 4-1 record.  As such, this is a statement game for both teams.  Miami has given up a lot of points to the FBS teams on its schedule.  Then again, North Carolina State gave up about as many to Tennessee.  This is a close one, but the edge goes to the home team here.  Prediction: Miami 26, North Carolina State 21.

Duke (3-1) @ Wake Forest (3-1), 12:30 p.m.  Another great matchup for the ACC, as North Carolina rivals Duke and Wake Forest will battle to see who gets to 4-1.  While Duke is much improved this year, Wake Forest seems like the better team.  Again, do not be surprised by an upset.  It’s just hard to pick the road team here.  Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Duke 17.

#17 Clemson (3-1) @ Boston College (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Clemson struggled last year after the first loss and this makes Boston College a sneaky upset pick.  But Clemson is (hopefully) a better team from a mental standpoint this year.  If not, it’s going to be a long season.  Prediction: Clemson 34, Boston College 13.

Idaho (0-4) @ North Carolina (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  North Carolina has beaten the patsies and lost to the decent teams.  Idaho is not a decent team.  Prediction: North Carolina 38, Idaho 11.

Louisiana Tech (3-0) @ Virginia (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  Louisiana Tech averages more than 50 points a game.  Something is in the water this year in Louisiana–just look at what Louisiana-Monroe has been doing.  And La Tech destroyed Illinois.  Virginia has been very disappointing this year.  This is an upset special.  Louisiana Tech 33, Virginia 24.

Virginia Tech (3-1) @ Cincinnati (2-0), 3:30 p.m.   Cincinnati looked good while beating Pitt, who now looks to have righted the ship.  This is Cincinnati’s only real test until late October.  A win here could mean that the Bearcats are 6-0 when returning to conference play at that point.  The Hokies looked awful in losing to Pitt.  Cincinnati on the road will be a more hostile environment.  Sorry, Hokies.  This aint your year.  Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Virginia Tech 21.

#4 Florida State (4-0) @ South Florida (2-2), 6:00 p.m.  The good news for South Florida fans is that this game is not being played on a Thursday.  The bad news is that this game is being played against Florida State.  However, the Bulls should be fired up for this one.  Florida State has to avoid the inevitable let down that follows a game like Clemson.  This one may be close simply because the energy of the Bulls is too much early for the Seminoles to handle, requiring a second half rally to make it close.  Or Skip Holtz is just in over his head and the Seminoles will trash them.  Leaning towards the latter.  Prediction: Florida State 42, South Florida 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Sep 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 5

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 5 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (4-0): Alabama went easy on Florida Atlantic.  Good for them.  They still won by 30+.  Next up: Mississippi.
  2. Florida State (4-0): Nobody in the top 3 has a better win than Florida State, with the Clemson win.  They are outscoring opponents now by a mere 55-10.   Next up: @ South Florida.
  3. LSU (4-0):  The Tigers struggled to beat the Tigers.  Typical SEC game.  Oh yeah–the LSU Tigers beat the Auburn Tigers 12-10.  Next up: Towson.
  4. Oregon (4-0): The Ducks looked very good in dispatching Arizona.  They shut out a Rich Rodriguez-coached team.  Nice.  Next up: @ Washington State.
  5. Kansas State (4-0): Kansas State has beaten top 5 Oklahoma, in Oklahoma, and destroyed 3-1 Miami.  Anyone have a better resume?  Next up: Kansas.
  6. Georgia (4-0): Took Vanderbilt to the cleaners, 48-3.  Georgia is looking like a solid #3 team in the SEC.  Next up: Tennessee.
  7. Notre Dame (4-0): The Fighting Irish beat Navy in Ireland, Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan.  Pretty impressive set of wins.  Next up: Michigan.
  8. South Carolina (4-0): The Gamecocks had little trouble with Missouri.  Welcome to the SEC, Mizzou!   Next up: @ Kentucky.
  9. West Virginia (3-0): In its first real challenge of the season, West Virginia allowed Maryland to hang around.  Need to turn it up a notch in the Big XII.  Next up: Baylor.
  10. Stanford (3-0): Stanford got the week off.  They play a Thursday game against the Huskies in Washington this week.  Next up: @ Washington.
  11. Florida (4-0): The Gators are beating up on the middling teams of the SEC.  Up next is LSU on October 6th.  Next up: Idle.
  12. Louisville (4-0): Louisville was not exactly dominant against FIU–a team that Duke handled.  At least it was a road game.  Next up: @ Southern Mississippi.
  13. Clemson (3-1): Clemson did well against Florida State, all things considered.  They need to avoid the losing streak of last year though.  Next up: Boston College.
  14. Ohio State (4-0).  Ohio State still hasn’t really played anyone good.  This changes immediately.  Next up: @ Michigan State.
  15. TCU (3-0).  The Horned Frogs looked very good against Virginia.  Have you looked at TCU’s last four games on the season?  Wow.  Next up: @ SMU.
  16. Texas (3-0). Next up: @ Oklahoma State.
  17. Oklahoma (2-1): Next up: Idle.
  18. USC (3-1). Next up: @ Utah.
  19. Michigan State (3-1). Next up: Ohio State.
  20. Oregon State (2-0).  Next up: @ Arizona.
  21. Northwestern (4-0). Next up: Indiana.
  22. Mississippi State (4-0).  Next up: Idle.
  23. Virginia Tech (3-1). Next up: Cincinnati.
  24. Michigan (2-2): Next up: @ Purdue.
  25. Rutgers (4-0). Next up: Idle.

* * *

121. Syracuse (1-3).  Syracuse has played a brutal schedule of USC, Northwestern, and Minnesota (away).  Still, the only Orange victory was against FCS Stony Brook, 28-17.

122. Temple (1-2).  The win over Villanova was nice.  And Penn State and Maryland are improved.  Still–only victory is over an FCS foe.

123. Boston College (1-2).  Boston College has lost to Miami and Northwestern.  No shame in that.  The only victory is over FCS New Hampshire, not exactly a power.

124. Arkansas (1-3).  Arkansas has officially collapsed.  The only win is over an FCS foe.  With its starting QB, they are dominated by Rutgers.  This should not happen to a good SEC team at home.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 4

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.

Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 28-8 start to the season.  On to week 4,where things will get a little tougher matchup-wise:

September 22, 2012

Bowling Green (1-2) @ Virginia Tech (2-1), noon.  Virginia Tech has to be embarrassed by last week.  The last time the Hokies were embarrassed (James Madison), they won 11 straight.  You cannot predict a loss here.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Bowling Green 14.

Maryland (2-1) @ #8 West Virginia (2-0), noon.   The records say “close game.”  The names have historically suggested “close game.”  While West Virginia has played nobody so far, Maryland’s 2-1 is more imaginary than a cartoon character seeing a mirage of an oasis in the desert.  The only question is whether West Virginia agrees to a running clock in the second half.  Prediction: West Virginia 49, Maryland 10.

Virginia (2-1) @ #17 TCU (2-0), noon.  Before the season, this looked like an upset special.  But Virginia has been underwhelming.  Sure, TCU has to play at 11:00 a.m. local time.  That might help keep it close.  Prediction: TCU 30, Virginia 20.

Army (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-1), 12:30 p.m.  Wake Forest need not be embarrassed by last week’s loss to Florida State.  They need to forget about it and move on.  This is a team that can win 8 or 9 games if things go right.  It all starts against Army.  Prediction: Wake Forest 21, Army 10.

Miami (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-1), 3:00 p.m.  Georgia Tech narrowly lost to a now-questionable Virginia Tech, and looked great in pasting Virginia.  Miami was obliterated by Kansas State, who was only OK against North Texas.  Miami did beat Boston College.  Everything about this suggests Georgia Tech.  Hmmm…. but the Confidential would never place an actual bet on this game.  A hunch that Miami will win–there always seems to be one Georgia Tech or Miami game that is entirely unpredictable.  This may be it.  Despite that, with all meekness and shame, the official prediction is Georgia Tech 38, Miami 34 (OT).

Gardner-Webb (0-3) @ Pitt (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Given that few teams have ever lost to an FCS team once, the odds of Pitt losing to two FCS teams one year is pretty slim.  The win over Va Tech means that if the impossible does happen, the coaching staff would survive to the following Monday.  What would have been an “absolute must win” becomes merely a “must win.”  They have to, right?  Prediction: Pitt 35, Gardner-Webb 10.

East Carolina (2-1) @ North Carolina (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Once upon a time there was a colony named Carolina.  And then it divided into North Carolina and East Carolina.  And that’s how East Carolina became the 14th colony.  Look it up.  Anyway, returning to reality… North Carolina rallied nicely against Louisville and only barely lost to Wake Forest.  East Carolina has looked decent too.  This could be a very good game.  Prediction: North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21.

Memphis (0-3) @ Duke (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  This game is the opposite of FSU-Clemson.  Memphis is one of the worst football teams in FBS.  Anyone willing to bet lunch money on them being a top FCS team?  Did not think so.   Memphis has lost to three teams called Tennessee-Martin, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State (bonus points if you know which one was the FCS school).  Meanwhile, Duke has hardly been a football powerhouse.  But Duke has scored 50 points per game in its two wins.  That’s 50 per game!  Big 10 basketball teams wish they could score like that!  No reason for that trend to stop now.  Prediction: Duke 50, Memphis 21 17 20ish (does it matter?).

Citadel (3-0) @ North Carolina State (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  North Carolina State is a good FBS team.  Citadel (is it The Citadel or not?) is a good FCS team.  This one may be closer than desired for a while, but NC State should pull away right about the time everyone is ready to switch over to the big game of the night.  Prediction: North Carolina State 34, Citadel 17.

Syracuse (1-2) @ Minnesota (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Minnesota’s three wins are not that impressive: UNLV in OT, New Hampshire, and Western Michigan.  But Syracuse’s one win was even less impressive, and that U.S.C. loss now looks less like a “moral victory.”  Nobody should be surprised if Syracuse wins.  But the Confidential has to ignore the heart and recognize the brain saying “home team wins.”  Prediction: Minnesota 31, Syracuse 28.

#10 Clemson (3-0) @ #4 Florida State (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Clemson looked great in defeating Auburn (suspect win now), Ball State (meh), and Furman (sub-meh).  Florida State has looked outstanding in defeating Murray State (yawn), Savannah State (running clock anyone?), and Wake Forest (nice).  Florida State has outscored its opponents by something like 176-3.  They are on pace to give up 12 points.  14 if they win out.  When Florida State was great, it was defense.  The glory days ended in 2001.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State allowed 200 or more points in just 4 seasons.  And three of those were 206 points or less.  See here.  From 2001 to 2011, Florida State allowed less than 200 points only twice.  You get the picture.

The Confidential appreciates that Clemson has two mega-playmakers in Boyd and Watkins.  But Florida State should be able to, at the very least, contain them.  The real question will be whether Florida State can put up points against Clemson.  Given that FSU is averaging 60 points a game, while Clemson allowed 23 PPG to Auburn and Ball State, FSU should be able to score enough.  This is FSU’s time to return to glory.  The Seminoles just need to reach out and grab it, avoiding the self-inflicted wounds of the past.  Also, if Swofford has any common sense at all… Florida State should get a few calls this time.  Prediction: Florida State 34, Clemson 23.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Sep 2012

ACC To Determine Notre Dame’s 5 Football Opponents

The announcement of the ACC partnership with Notre Dame was accompanied by news that Notre Dame would play 5 opponents per year, as well as every team every there years.  ACC commissioner John Swofford explained recently that the ACC, rather than Notre Dame, will have the decision as to which 5 opponents Notre Dame plays every year:

Q: How will you allocate the five Notre Dame football games to your conference members?

A: It’s up to the ACC to do that. Notre Dame will accept whatever five games the ACC gives them on any given year. Conceptually what we intend to do is rotate through the entire membership — 14 schools for those five games. We do have some teams that currently have contracts with Notre Dame and we need to take a look at that. We would like to accomplish this without disrupting those particular games that are currently under contract. But once we reach a clean point the idea is to rotate the games through the membership. So that every school knows they will get Notre Dame once every three years either in their home stadium or at Notre Dame.

This, of course, is notably different from the Notre Dame “promise” to schedule 3 games a year against Big East teams.  What has been negotiated is Notre Dame limiting itself to 7 games it can schedule and leaving the rest up to the ACC.

While nobody should be under the illusion that the ACC will make these scheduling decisions in total disregard for Notre Dame’s interests, the bottom line is that the deal between the ACC and Notre Dame is quite an acquiescence by Notre Dame.  After all, Notre Dame could have requested the right to determine its opponents each year.  In any event, this allows the ACC to schedule every team, every three years… plus allow one team to play Notre Dame twice in that period.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts the already-existing contracts between Notre Dame and ACC schools.  Even Swofford has no idea how that will work out yet.  Stay tuned.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , ,

Post Navigation

← Older Entries
Newer Entries →