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15 Mar 2012

The ACC and the Post-Season: Update

Well, it is College Basketball Tournament season.  The Big Dance commences in earnest today.

Before reaching the real March Madness… did you know that Pittsburgh is still playing basketball?  The Panthers defeated Wofford on Tuesday in something called the CBI, 81-63.  And Miami defeated Valparaiso in the NIT on Wednesday, 66-50.  Congratulations for those teams taking advantage of their post-season opportunities.

As for the Big Dance, all the current ACC teams begin play on Friday.  So here is what ACC fans should be watching for Thursday:

Syracuse.  The Orange are going to be playing without the Big East defensive player of the year, Fab Melo.  Will the Melo-less Orange be the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed?  North Carolina-Asheville is not your ordinary 16 seed.  The Bulldogs stayed with North Carolina State (lost by 9), battled North Carolina (lost by 16), gave UConn a run (lost by 10), and narrowly lost to Tennessee (lost by 4).  They also beat Utah by 16.  This is not a team that will shrink from Syracuse.  However, even without Melo, Syracuse would have been a 3 or 4 seed this year.  In fact, without the expectation of improvement by Melo, Syracuse was a top 5 team in the preseason.  The goal here is to win and develop the ability to play without Melo.  If so, Syracuse still has the tools to make a decent run.

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , ,
14 Mar 2012
1 Comment

Adjust Your Brackets–Fab Melo is Out for Syracuse

The 2011-2012 Syracuse basketball team has been a rollercoaster.  The latest development is Syracuse’s announcement that Center Fab Melo will miss the NCAA tournament for what is reportedly an academic eligibility issue.  While some had questioned whether this Syracuse team would get to the Final Four with Melo–at least the way it had played lately–there is little doubt that a Melo-less Orange team is not a national championship contender.

Of course, the first question is why Melo is ineligible?  Do not expect clarity on that issue, as ESPN reported the following: “‘Given University policy and federal student privacy laws, no further details can be provided at this time,’ the Syracuse website said.”  So do not expect a statement from Syracuse on the issue.

Also, initial ESPN reports that the NCAA had determined Melo to be ineligible are also not true, as ESPN later clarified as follows: “Melo was declared ineligible by Syracuse, not the NCAA, according to Bob Williams, the NCAA vice president of communications.”

The media is also inconsistent as to whether this announcement was related to Melo’s three-game suspension from earlier in the year.  ESPN’s Dana O’Neill reported that a source indicated that Melo was declared ineligible “for academic issues related to those that forced him to sit three games earlier in the season.”  In contrast, CBS’s Seth Davis is apparently reporting that the suspension is in regard to an entirely different issue.  See Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician for more on this conflict.

Regardless of the “why,” the impact of Melo’s absence huge.  He was the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.  And his screens were a valuable part of the Syracuse offense.  Meanwhile, he was the only Syracuse player that was even competent rebounding.  So, while Syracuse could still make a deep run–it is difficult to envision this team surviving such a major loss this late in the season.  It will take a great effort by the remaining players just to make it to the Final Four.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , ,
13 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: March 13, 2012

Here is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball schools as of March 13, 2012:

1. Syracuse (31-2)  Notwithstanding the loss to Cincinnati, Syracuse has been the best ACC team from start to finish.

2. North Carolina (29-5)  Sure, the Tar Heels were swept by Florida State.  But Florida State had four more losses overall.

3. Duke (27-6)  Like North Carolina, Duke lost to Florida State twice.  Again, however, the upsets of Duke were far more reasonable.

4. Florida State (24-9)  Give the Seminoles credit for the head-to-head victories over the teams above them here.  But to win it all, you’ve got to win the winnable games too.

5. Virginia (22-9)  Virginia has been struggling for weeks now.  Good, but not great.

6. North Carolina State (22-12).  The Wolfpack rallied in the ACC tournament to get off the bubble and into the Big Dance.  Likely at Miami’s expense.

7. Miami (19-12)  A good first season for the new Miami coaching staff.  The NIT will be good for this team, as long as they take it seriously.

8. Clemson (16-15)  At 8-8 in conference play during the regular season, Clemson fell to Virginia Tech in the ACC tourney.  Season was a stepping stone though.

9. Maryland (17-15)  At 6-10 in conference play, Maryland actually made progress.  Consider that this team was 3-3 heading into December.

10. Pittsburgh (17-16)  After starting 13-2, the team finished 4-14.  12 of those 16 losses were to teams in the Big Dance field.

11.  Virginia Tech (16-17)  A disappointing record obviously.  At some point, you’ve got to win a lot more of the close, winnable games.

12. Wake Forest (13-18) Like all the teams down this far, the Demon Deacons were a significant disappointment all season long.

13. Georgia Tech (11-20).  The new coaching staff did not have much success.  Next year should be better.

14. Boston College (9-22)  The Eagles were so young this year that the future is actually quite bright.  These were freshmen struggling, not juniors.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
12 Mar 2012

The Brackets Are Unveiled and the ACC is Well-Represented

Selection Sunday has come and gone, and the NCAA has revealed the 68 teams that will compete for the National Championship.  And the ACC is well-represented in this year’s Big Dance.

North Carolina was–as expected–given a #1 seed in the Midwest.  In fact, the Tar Heels received the #3 overall seed.  They will play the winner of a play-in game between Lamar and Vermont.  The looming 8-9 matchup for North Carolina is Creighton-Alabama.

In a move that was also expected, Duke was given a #2 seed.  The Blue Devils were assigned to the South region, where Kentucky is the #1 seed.  Duke will begin play against Lehigh.  The looming 7-10 matchup for Duke is a tough one–#7 Notre Dame vs. #10 Xavier.

On the strength of their run through the ACC tournament, Florida State was given a #3 seed in the East.  The #1 seed is Syracuse, while the #2 seed in the East is Ohio State.  The Seminoles will begin play against St. Bonaventure.  If they win that game, they will face the winner of the game between #6 Cincinnati and #11 Texas.

Virginia fell all the way to a #10 seed and was shipped out West.  They will play the #7 seed Florida, who may be a bit underseeded.  Even if Virginia wins, a very tough #2 seed in Missouri awaits.  Michigan State was the #1 seed in the West.

North Carolina State was given an 11 seed.  They will begin play against the #6 seed in the Midwest region, San Diego State.  If the Wolfpack wins, they will play the winner of #3 Georgetown and #14 Belmont.

As noted above, Syracuse was the #1 seed in the East.  They will begin play against #16 seed North Carolina-Ashville.  If they take care of business there, the #8-#9 matchup features Kansas State and Southern Mississippi.

Obviously, this means that Miami did not make the cut.  While the general consensus is that Iona was the only questionable addition to the field, the greater focus is on the exclusion of Drexel.  Like all bubble teams, Miami had its chances and fell short.  The NIT certainly awaits though.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
09 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: First Round ACC Tournament Action

The first round of the ACC Conference Championship has concluded.  Four teams advanced on March 8, 2012: Maryland, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Miami.

North Carolina State is a team that many consider to be on the wrong side of the bubble.  Joe Lunardi has North Carolina State as the 4th team “out” of the Big Dance.  A loss to Boston College would have destroyed the Wolfpack’s chances.  Instead, North Carolina State improved to 21-11 with a 78-57 win over the Eagles. Scott Wood led North Carolina State with 22 points.  While North Carolina State will need to win at least one more game to have a chance at cracking the field of 68, they took care of business in beating Boston College.  The Eagles, whose season ends with a 9-22 record, were led by Ryan Anderson’s 22 points and 12 rebounds.

Joe Lunardi also considers Miami on the wrong side of the bubble.  So it was important for Miami to avoid that bubble bursting when it played struggling Georgia Tech.  The Hurricanes did exactly that, beating the Yellow Jackets, 54-36.  In other words, less offense than a typical MAC football game.  Shane Larkin led the Hurricanes, who improved to 19-11, with 12 points.  Mfon Udofia led Georgia Tech, whose season ends with an 11-20 record, with 13 points.

In other games: Virginia Tech improved to 16-16 by defeating Clemson, 68-63.  Point guard Erick Green led Virginia Tech with 24 points, while Tanner Smith led Clemson with 12 points.  Maryland defeated Wake Forest 82-60 to improve to 17-14.  Terrell Stoglin scored 25 points to lead Maryland, while Wake Forest–whose season ended at 13-18–was led by Travis McKie’s 22 points.  Also, Syracuse improved to 31-1 by defeating Connecticut 58-55.  Dion Waiters led Syracuse with 18 points.

Friday’s games:

  • #1 North Carolina v #8 Maryland, noon
  • #4 Virginia v #5 North Carolina State 2:00 pm
  • #2 Duke v #10 Virginia Tech, 7:00 pm
  • #1 Syracuse v #4 Cincinnati, 7:00 pm
  • #3 Florida State v #6 Miami, 9:00 pm

For North Carolina State and Miami, the only option is winning.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , ,
08 Mar 2012

ACC Lacrosse Weekly Report 4, March 8, 2012

Amazingly, the ACC lacrosse season is already a few weeks old.

News:

The Inside Lacrosse poll has Virginia #1, receiving 19 of the 20 first place votes.  Maryland is #4, Syracuse is #6, North Carolina is #8, and Duke is #9.  The USILA Coaches Poll is the same, except that Virginia has all 9 first place votes and Duke is ranked #11.

Recap of Last Week:

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Maryland 10, Duke 7.  “Senior Drew Snider had a hat trick to lead the No. 5 Maryland men’s lacrosse team to at 10-7 victory over No. 8 Duke in front of 4,137 at Capital One Field at Byrd Stadium Saturday afternoon.”

Lehigh 9, North Carolina 8.  “Lehigh outscored North Carolina 5-0 over a span of 25:11 from the second through fourth quarters and went on to beat the fourth-ranked Tar Heels 9-8 at Fetzer Field Saturday night. The loss was the first for the Tar Heels against an unranked team at Fetzer Field since March 5, 2004 when Navy downed Carolina 9-8 in overtime.”

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Virginia 14, Syracuse 10.  “Colin Briggs scored three goals and assisted another to help the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (5-0) top the No. 3 Syracuse Orange (2-1) on Sunday evening, 14-10, in front of 5,855 fans inside Klöckner Stadium.”

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

UMBC 8, Maryland 7.

Penn 10, North Carolina 6.

Virginia 16, Vermont 10.

Upcoming Games:

Saturday, March 10, 2012:

North Carolina v Princeton.

Duke @ Loyala.

Marist @ Maryland.

Virginia v Cornell

Syracuse @ St. John’s.

Monday, March 12, 2012:

Harvard @ Duke.

Records:

Virginia 6-0 (0-0 in conference).

Maryland 3-1 (1-0 in conference)

North Carolina 4-2 (0-0 in conference)

Duke 3-2 (0-1 in conference)

Syracuse 2-1

The Confidential’s ACC Lacrosse Rankings:

1.  Virginia (6-0).  Virginia has been simply dominant this year.

2.  Syracuse (2-1).  Syracuse tested Virginia for a significant time, before ultimately falling.

3.  Maryland (3-1).  Despite the loss to UMBC, Maryland did beat Duke in a conference matchup.

4.  North Carolina (4-2).  North Carolina’s losses to Lehigh and Penn were disappointments.

5.  Duke (3-2).  No shame in losing to Maryland.  But that’s two losses now for Duke. 

If you have any comments on the ACC Lacrosse season or this entry, please feel free to share!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Lacrosse and tagged , , , , , , , ,
07 Mar 2012

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for March 7, 2012

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for March 7, 2012:

  1. Syracuse (30-1).  Syracuse looked very good in its home finale against Louisville, a team that has historically solved the 2-3 zone.
  2. Kentucky (30-1).  Kentucky is a team on a mission.  Is this the year for Coach Calipari?
  3. North Carolina (27-4).  The preseason favorites are rounding into form at the right time.  Nobody will want to play the Tar Heels.
  4. Kansas (26-5).  There has been a lot of rotation between the teams ranked 3rd through 8th… this week Kansas moves up to #4.
  5. Missouri (27-4).  Missouri looked very good defeating Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Recovered from a tough week the week before.
  6. Duke (26-5).  Lost big to North Carolina, leaving the Blue Devils with 2nd place in the ACC.  Tiebreaker in the ACC tournament perhaps?
  7. Ohio State (25-6).  Wins over motivated teams like Northwestern and Michigan State suggest that Ohio State is also peaking at the right time.
  8. Marquette (25-6).  Loss at Cincinnati was disappointing, but Marquette handled a very good Georgetown team to end the regular season.
  9. Michigan State (24-7).  No real shame in losing to Indiana and Ohio State.  Being handled by Indiana, even on the road, was surprising.
  10. Georgetown (22-7).  The Hoyas split a tough week–beating Notre Dame and losing to Marquette.  The slight edge over Baylor due to foe quality.
  11. Baylor (25-6).  Iowa State really needed to beat Baylor.  And did.  The Bears are still primed to make some noise in March Madness.
  12. Michigan (23-8).  Michigan got important wins to keep its hopes for a #3 seed alive, even if Illinois and Penn State are not great teams.
  13. Wisconsin (23-8).  The Badgers got two more wins, over Minnesota and Illinois, keep pace with the Big 10 leaders.
  14. Indiana (24-7).  Wins over Michigan State and Purdue–a great way to end the surprise turnaround season.  Especially in a deep year for the Big 10.
  15. Murray State (30-1).  Murray State struggled in the conference tournament championship game, but pulled out the victory late.  Teams on the bubble everywhere exhaled.
  16. Florida State (21-9).  The Seminoles finished strong, beating Virginia and suddenly challenging Clemson during the final week.  A lot of good wins for this Seminole team.
  17. Creighton (28-5).  With so many teams ahead of them losing, Creighton takes advantage with its three-win sweep of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament.
  18. San Diego State (24-6).  Like Creighton, San Diego State was able to avoid losing this past week.  Even if the wins were not overly impressive, they did not lose.
  19. UNLV (25-7).  UNLV lost to Colorado State, but rallied to defeat a good Wyoming team to end the regular season.  Up next?  Wyoming again.
  20. Wichita State (27-5).  The Shockers were shocked in the MWC tournament by Illinois State.  Still, this team is looking solid for an at-large bid.
  21. Notre Dame (21-10).  Notre Dame got back in the winning way with a victory over Providence.  Now it is on to the Big Apple to make some noise in the Big East tournament.
  22. Virginia (22-8).  Virginia lost to Florida State at home, which hurt.  But they got a key overtime win over Maryland to stop the losing streak.
  23. Louisville (22-9).  The Cardinals are really struggling offensively right now.  Also playing and losing to very good teams.
  24. Florida (22-9).  No shame in losing at Vanderbilt and to Kentucky.  But the Gators are really tacking on the losses right now.
  25. Temple (24-6).  A couple of nice wins over Massachusetts and Fordham to end the season on a high note.  A very good profile for the Owls.
  26. Virginia Commonwealth (28-6).  Three more wins for Virginia Commonwealth.  Big win to qualify for the Big Dance.
  27. Iowa State (22-9).  In a week with games against Missouri and Baylor, winning the home game and losing the road game is a fine result.  A tourney lock at this point.
  28. St. Mary’s (27-5).  St. Mary’s gets the edge over Gonzaga by defeating them in the West Coast Conference tournament championship game.
  29. Gonzaga (25-6).  See above.
  30. Vanderbilt (21-10).  Vandy responded to the nice win against Florida by losing to in-state rival Tennessee to conclude the season.

Tell us what you think.  Is anyone unfairly missing?  Anyone too high or too low?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , ,
06 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: March 6, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of March 6, 2012:

1. Syracuse (30-1)  What more can you say?  30-1 with a Big East schedule, plus victories over Florida, North Carolina State, Stanford, and Virginia Tech.

2. North Carolina (27-4)  North Carolina appears to be peaking at the right point of the season.  After getting demolished by Florida State, the Tar Heels won 12 of 13 down the stretch.

3. Duke (26-5)  Duke has had a great season.  Had the Blue Devils beat North Carolina they would have been a #1 seed in the Big Dance.

4. Florida State (21-9)  The Seminoles were an impressive 12-4 in conference play.  Plus, they beat Virginia last week.

5. Virginia (22-8)  One of three 9-7 teams, Virginia has had the best season start-to-finish.  The best overall record too.

6. Miami (18-11)  Miami and North Carolina State are squarely on the bubble.  Need some ACC tournament wins to feel safe.

7. North Carolina State (20-11).  Missed some opportunities down the stretch.  Probably need to win two in the ACC tournament to get off the bubble.

8. Clemson (16-14)  Clemson is now 7-7 in conference play.  They followed up the win over Virginia by beating Georgia Tech and North Carolina State.

9. Maryland (16-12)  After beating Miami, Maryland was primed to move up a few spots.  But then they lost to Georgia Tech.

10.  Virginia Tech (15-14)  This team has had more closes losses.  This past week was a 2-point loss to Virginia and an OT loss to Duke.

11. Pittsburgh (15-14)  Pittsburgh’s small momentum is over.  Hard to believe this team was once 13-2.

12. Wake Forest (13-15) They did beat Boston College by nearly 30.  Not a bad way to end the week.

13. Georgia Tech (10-18).  The losing streak is over.  And Georgia Tech beat a good Maryland team to accomplish that task.

14. Boston College (8-20)  Boston College had been showing some signs of life.  Losing by 29 to a sub .500 Wake Forest team is not such a sign.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
03 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball: Final Weekend of Regular Season Games

Unfortunately, the ACC basketball season–at least the regular season–is about to come to an end.  This weekend will be the second-to-last games for several teams.  However, there is still much to be decided.

The current standings:

ACC
Team Conf. W-L Tot. W-L
Duke 13-2 26-4
North Carolina 13-2 26-4
Florida St. 11-4 20-9
Virginia 8-7 21-8
N.C. State 8-7 19-11
Miami (Fla.) 8-7 17-11
Clemson 8-7 16-13
Maryland 6-9 16-13
Virginia Tech 4-11 15-15
Wake Forest 4-11 13-16
Boston College 4-11 9-20
Georgia Tech 3-12 10-19

The games themselves will sort out a lot today.

The key game, of course, is the matchup between #4 Duke and #6 North Carolina.  It always is.  The intensity is even greater when the two teams enter the game with identical records at 26-4 overall and 13-2 in conference.  And today’s game just happens to be for the regular season title and the #1 seed in the ACC tournament.  So there’s that.

While #22 Florida State has third place all locked up, there is a 4-way tie for 4th place between Virginia, North Carolina State, Miami, and Clemson.  Miami has the easiest path, playing 9-20 Boston College.  Clemson has the toughest opponent, traveling to #22 Florida State on Sunday.  On Sunday, #24 Virginia will travel to Maryland for its finale, while North Carolina State travels to Virginia Tech.  The only other game features Wake Forest and Georgia Tech.

Meanwhile, #2 Syracuse will conclude its regular season on Saturday by hosting #17 Louisville.  Pittsburgh will travel to Connecticut in a battle between two disappointing teams.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Weekend Preview and tagged , , , , , , ,
02 Mar 2012

Bracketology Update: ACC Style

There are now several individuals that offer predictions as to who is going to be part of the 68-team field for the Big Dance.  Here is where the major ones currently stand with respect to ACC teams:

As of February 29, 2012, ESPN “bracketologist” Joe Lunardi has Syracuse and five current ACC teams making the field.  In addition to the obvious Duke and North Carolina, Lunardi has Florida State, Virginia, and Miami.  The respective seeds are Syracuse (#1), Duke (#1), North Carolina (#2), Florida State (#4), Virginia (#8), and Miami (#12).  Hard to disagree with that. Florida State’s narrow victory over Virginia last night, 63-60, is not likely to change his analysis.

ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan has the same basic structure for teams either in the field or close to it.  Surprisingly, he has completely eliminated North Carolina State from consideration.  With a 19-11 record, this seems a bit hasty.  Especially after North Carolina State just beat Miami.

CBS’s Jerry Palm is not quite as positive.  Palm does not have Miami in his field currently.  So that leaves only Syracuse (#1), Duke (#1), North Carolina (#2), Florida State (#6), and Virginia (#9).  Palm is definitely “cool” on ACC teams as everyone beyond a #2 seed is at least one round lower than Lunardi.

Mike Huguenin of Rivals/Yahoo has a blend of Lunardi and Palm.  He has the teams just like Palm does in terms of seeding.  But unlike Palm, and like Lunardi, he also has Miami in the field as a #12 seed.

Finally, the interesting site the Bracket Project pulls from 50+ bracket projections.  After combining the various brackets, this is the national consensus:

  • Syracuse is a #1 seed and second overall
  • Duke is a #1 seed and third overall
  • North Carolina is a #2 seed and sixth overall
  • Florida State is a #5 seed
  • Virginia is a #8 seed
  • Miami is a #12 seed
  • North Carolina State is 7 spots out of the final at-large position.

So there it is.  Barring a run by North Carolina State, only Miami really seems on the fence for the Big Dance right now.  Hard to believe that brackets will be announced in just 9 days.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, March Madness, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

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