The Confidential

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Archive for the month “January, 2013”

31 Jan 2013
8 Comments

Signing Day, One Week Away… Predictions

We’re getting so close to “the big day”. If you’re a true college football fan, you know exactly what I’m talking about. That’s right, the day your team signs its new recruiting class and fills team needs is approaching. Most of these high school signees, recruits, or soon to be local campus celebrities (whatever you want to call them) will represent your school on and off the football field for the next several years, so pay attention. As we head into next Wednesday, February 6th, also known to many as National Signing Day, we’ll peak at an early prediction to see how the current ACC’s top classes should stack up. Loads of blue-chip recruits are making final decisions next Wednesday. Let’s shake the magic eight ball and see what happens…

2013 ACC Recruiting Class Predictions:

1. Clemson (Currently 18 verbals, should make major noise on NSD. 3 of the top 5 recruiting battles left include the Tigers. Still in the running for blue chippers in DT Adams, DE Lawson, OT Crowder, and CB Alexander. Dabo has aces in the hole as usual; I’m calling it a top 10 class when the smoke clears. The Tigers like it near the top, may stay for a while with this class.)

2. Florida State (Currently 18 verbals, with stellar recruits on the line. While the Noles had a few recruits part ways over the last few days, they should easily make up ground with blue chip OLB Thomas, WR Cunningham, and possibly DT Bryant among others. Jimbo will make it happen once again, bank on a top 10 class.)

3. Miami (Currently 13 verbals, also in the running with many studs. While the class is currently small, they pack a nasty punch. Still in it until the end for OLB Thomas, DT Bryant, RB Collins, and WR Coley all from the South FL football hotbed. Despite rough times with the NCAA, they’re making it happen. We’ll call it a U top 20-15 class)

4. North Carolina (Currently 18 verbals, looking to throw more on the pile. While most of their guys are already locked in, the biggest battle will be against Tennessee for WR North. North stays close to home, and UNC lands the big fish. They also have a shot at TE McNeil and ATH Summers to name a few. We’ll see Tarheel blue in the top 25 next Wed.)

5. Virginia Tech (Currently 22 verbals, already almost close to a full signing class before the fax flood gates open up. All of the current commits are 3 and 4 stars. Still heavy favorites for ATH Parker and possibly DE Bellamy. The Hokies will be on the cusp of reeling in a top 25 class).

Best of the rest:

6. Pitt
7. UVA
8. NC State
9. Syracuse
10. GT
11. Wake
12. Maryland
13. BC
14. Duke

If your personal rankings stack up a little different, leave a comment below and tell us why.

Posted by JBCoop in ACC only, Clemson correspondent, Conference News, Football, Opinion, Predictions, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
31 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Rare Shout-Out to Other Blogs

The Confidential’s two favorite general blogs on the Internet, other than this one, are Frank the Tank and ACC Football Rx.  They should be part of any ACC fan’s regular reading.

ACC Football Rx is ACC-focused, which is great.  With a focus on football and expansion, the primary author, Hokie Mark, does a great job of picking subjects, accumulating data, and being realistic/positive about the ACC.  Really, there are far too many good articles over there to point out just one.  Add it your list.

Frank the Tank is expansion-based and Big 10 centric (to say the least), but there are a fair share of commentators who hold an allegiance outside the Big 10.  And the author is quite-evenhanded in discussing other conferences.  The commentariat is a little less reasoned, but are a great source for expansion ideas.

That blog’s latest entry discusses the Big XII and the ACC, the alliance discussed here last week, and other topics.  As always, the blog is quick to note that the assumption that the ACC in jeopardy is more fantasy than reality right now:

So, that’s where I see the threats of the ACC becoming completely coming apart end up failing.  UNC, in particular, has Texas-esque influence (even if it’s more perceived than real) in the ACC, and the actions of Deloss Dodds and the Longhorns have shown that power and big dog status can be even more important as making the most TV money from a conference.  (Notre Dame feels the same way.)  As a result, the thought that UNC and UVA are going to bolt because they are scared that the ACC will collapse doesn’t hold water with me.  Those 2 schools can keep the ACC together alone and they have enough powerful alums with massive pocketbooks and politicians backing them where getting more TV revenue isn’t going to carry the same weight with them as it did with Maryland.

That’s some good stuff too. And it really underscores why the ACC’s biggest problem is worrying about what the rest of the conference schools might be thinking.

If you care about the ACC, expansion matters.  These two blogs are two more to add to your required reading list.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
30 Jan 2013
2 Comments

What’s up?/ACC Winter Meetings

Hey guys, what’s up? I just wanted to introduce myself. I’m the new UNC correspondent for Atlantic Coast Confidential. Born in Raleigh, NC to two Virginia Tech grads, I was raised on Tobacco Road and loved every minute of it. Growing up, I actually had pretty much no loyalty to any team at all, cheering for UNC, NC State, Duke (I regret that) and even Wake since VT wasn’t in the ACC yet. But by the time they joined in 2004, I had decided to go to UNC and my loyalties were set for life. I still cheer for VT when they’re not playing Carolina, but when they do, it’s all Carolina all the time. That means that this Saturday’s upcoming game will be pretty fun. But I’m realistic. I know that a stronger ACC makes us all look good, so come tournament time I’m cheering for everybody except Duke (the Lehigh game was great). So while I love Carolina, I’ve always loved the ACC first and am extremely excited about sharing that passion with you.

Mr. Tar Heel

– Watch the ACC Spring Meetings over the next few days. What happens will pretty much determine whether we even need this blog next year, or if the long-rumored (by WVU fans) Armageddon is about to begin. My take- The whole idea is completely overblown. There’s way too much potential in a conference with the best media markets, over 33% of the US population, huge football brands (FSU, ND, Miami, Clemson, VT, etc.), legendary basketball programs (UNC, Duke, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville etc.), the best academics, most successful Olympic sports and unparalleled tradition for anything drastic to happen. Swofford will, as he always has, surprise everyone with something that will put the ACC on even monetary terms with the rest of the power conferences. ESPN has invested in the ACC way too much to see its product fall to Fox, or its other competitors. Plus, I just don’t see UNC forsaking its cultural roots for an all-around bad fit (Big 10), or FSU pulling a WVU and letting geographic sense fly out the window.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Conference Realignment, UNC Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , ,
30 Jan 2013
4 Comments

Hello! (And other introductory remarks)

While National Signing Day may be a week away, I’ve already made my commitment and signed the letter of intent. I’m happy to announce that I will be the FSU correspondent for Atlantic Coast Confidential. I’m guilty of following FSU athletics to a fault, with many apologies to my wife and son.

On the docket, I have a few articles planned. First, an article on FSU’s recruiting this cycle and why this class may be what defines Jimbo Fisher’s career. Second, I’d like to discuss the seismic turnover that the coaching staff has experienced. And third, maybe a few thoughts on conference expansion and where FSU may finally land.  Of course, if my colleagues or our readers have any articles they would like to see, please let me know.

Above all, thank you for having me and I look forward to being your correspondent for all things FSU.

Posted by Duke in FSU Correspondent and tagged
30 Jan 2013
4 Comments

If The Confidential Ran the NBDL

The Confidential loves college hoops.  The Confidential used to enjoy the NBA.  It was back in the day when college seniors would get drafted and you could follow the college stars as they meshed with NBA superstars.  Somewhere along the way, the NBA lost a lot of fans.  At least part of it is that the NBA is populated by players that spent less than two years in college.  We never got a chance to like them and they were off to ride the pine while their potential wasted away.  The NBDL is an opportunity to bridge the gap with college fans.  Instead of taking advantage of it, the NBA minimizes it.  It is a missed opportunity.  So here is The Confidential’s plan to use the NBDL to help lure the college fan base back to the NBA game.

First, how about an NBA tweak.  Allow an extra roster spot for a college graduate at 1/2 the league minimum.  Why is the NBA choosing potential over a flawed, but beloved player?  Well, everyone knows why.  But there is a cost–the college fan is marginalized.  So allow one measly roster spot to be populated by a player that will play sparingly, but get an idea how the NBA works.  We’ll watch to see if/when he plays.  Like a walk-on, etc.

Second, use the NBDL.  Right now, there are NBDL teams in what cities?  Do you even know?  Care?  The NBA forced ten gajillion WNBA commercials on fans… but who can name 10 NBDL locations?

Well, here you go:

  • Canton, Ohio (the football hall of fame town is a great place for a hoops team)
  • Erie, Pennsylvania (yawn)
  • Fort Wayne, Indiana (perhaps)
  • Maine (a whole state)
  • Springfield, Massachusetts
  • Austin, Texas (great!)
  • Iowa (a whole state, but we can live with this)
  • Hidalgo, Texas (population 12,000–12,020 when in-season)
  • Sioux Falls, South Dakota (did Winnipeg balk?)
  • Frisco, Texas (it’s near Dallas)
  • Tulsa, Oklahoma (fine)
  • Bakersfield, California (arena can be expanded to fit 700 fans!)
  • Boise, Idaho (again, arena football makes more sense than hoops)
  • Los Angeles, California (as if this is cracks the top 100,000 in things to do in L.A.)
  • Reno, Nevada (because the NBA does not want to be associated with gambling… what?)
  • Santa Cruz, California

Yawn city.  Just mistake after mistake.

Why doesn’t the NBA locate its NBDL franchises near popular college basketball hotbeds?   Let us get to see more of these guys–we miss them!

How about this instead:

  • Hartford, Connecticut (captures the Boston fan base and UConn, as well as anything Northeast… but is NOT in Maine)
  • Rochester, New York (captures the Syracuse fan base–good enough to put 34,000 people in a Dome, occasionally, as well as Buffalo metro)
  • Alexandria, Virginia (captures the DC area, Maryland, and Virginia)
  • Canton, Ohio (fine… Ohio)
  • Flint, Michigan (get the Michigan State and Michigan fans fired up)
  • Fort Wayne, Indiana (fine… all the Indiana schools’ fans)
  • Madison, Wisconsin (the Big 10/NFC North, etc.)
  • Tulsa, Oklahoma (fine)
  • Topeka, Kansas (the Kansas fans)
  • Austin, Texas (fine)
  • Louisville, Kentucky (another hoops hotbed)
  • Raleigh, NC (NC hoops!)
  • Salem, Oregon (the Northwest!)
  • Santa Clara, California (fine)
  • Los Angeles, California (fine… but nobody will care)
  • Phoenix, Arizona (the AZ/New Mexico hoops fans)

Did we get everyone?  Probably not, Florida & the Southeast are underrepresented.  But this is a start.

Imagine a Rochester, NY, team with three former Syracuse players.  People would care…. especially if/when a player was called up.  Imagine Kentucky/Louisville fans watching 5-6 of their former players on one team?  People would care.  Same with North Carolina and Indiana.  Perhaps limit it to three players from a college within 100 miles or something.  Whatever.  The NCAA does not want NBDL franchises being a lure for college players (as if).

Why wouldn’t it work?  You tell us.

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Opinion and tagged , , , , , ,
30 Jan 2013
3 Comments

SU Football starts the transition

There is never a good time for a good college football coach to leave.  Just when Orange fans see the program turning the corner with Doug Marrone, next thing you know he is the HC of the Buffalo Bills.

New Head Coach Scott Shafer has been quite busy building a new staff and trying to keep recruits.  The Orange lost top QB recruit Zach Allen to TCU just two days before he was supposed to enroll at Syracuse.  The Orange also lost a few other players in transition. Long time SU fans remember Ray Rice decommitted when Paul Pasqualoni was let go – think both teams fortunes changed for a decade after that one?  However, the new staff has already attracted a few new recruits with the recently patched together staff including dual threat QB Mitch KImble from Illinois and WR Corey Cooper out of Raleigh, NC.  The latter was being recruited by new OC George McDonald who is being counted on to not just lead the offense but to recruit in ACC territory having been with Miami last season.

As part of the move to the ACC the Orange was hoping to go into some new recruiting territoy and now has someone with ties in the conference’s footprint.  However, Syracuse has to still recruit the 250 mile radius around its campus successfully.  In the 80’s and 90’s they owned the NJ/NYC area – then Greg Schiano and Randy Edsall came along and the Orange have struggled regularly since.  Doug Marrone was just making some inroads into the NYC area and had a few asst. coaches who new the area well, but they went with him to the Bills.  I’m very encouraged with how the new staff has held things together.  The staff isn’t completely filled yet, but as of yet, they don’t have anyone with ties to the metropolitan area and only two verbal commits so far are from NYC and none from NJ.  If the ‘Cuse is going to continue the recent upswing as they enter the ACC, they will have to somehow get back into their base recruiting area.  Otherwise, it could be a rough start in the ACC next year.

Posted by tjcuseacc in ACC only, Football, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , ,
29 Jan 2013
2 Comments

State of the Pack: Virginia Preview

Let’s take a moment, just one, to relish the victory over UNC.  The Pack got the Heels by the throat in the first half, but a Roy Williams team will never go away.  Still, this win was terrific.

However, as Dick Vitale reminded those of us taking it in on ESPN again…and again…and again, great teams don’t lose to Wake and Maryland on the road.  So tonight, we face Virginia.

The Cavs have had sucess of late after a shaky start. They are on a 3-game win streak including perhaps their signature win so far vs. Florida State. They hang their hat on defense and will likely be able to keep State from breaking out as often as they did against UNC.

However, if the Wolfpack can manufacture some intensity without the home crowd, they should be OK. I’m thinking they are just as tired as the fans of hearing about their road woes, and that they saw a little of what they can be in the first half Sunday night.

Here’s a look at the stat matchup:

Leading scorers: State:  CJ Leslie 15.4, Va:  Joe Harris 14.8

Rebounders:  State:  Richard Howell 11.1, Va:  Akil Mitchell 8.8

Assists:  State:  Lorenzo Brown 7.2,  Va:  Jontel Evans 4.2

Posted by mikemab2000 in Uncategorized
28 Jan 2013

The First Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: January 28, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of January 28, 2013:

1.  Duke  (2 first place votes)   56 points

2.  Syracuse (1 first place vote)   54 points

3.  Miami (2 first place votes)  49 points

4.  North Carolina State   44 points

5.  (tie) Notre Dame and Pitt  37 points

7.  Louisville  30 points

8.  Virginia   25 points

9.  Maryland   23 points

10.  North Carolina 17 points

11. Florida State  11 points

12. Clemson  6 points

Notes:

Georgia Tech was placed #12 on a ballot each, but Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Boston College did not crack anyone’s top 12.  Sorry to those teams.

It is clear that name value still matters, as Duke and Syracuse suffered losses but stayed in the top 2.  Meanwhile, not everyone is persuaded that Miami is for real.  Was it just a hot January?  We’ll see.

North Carolina State is generally #4 or #5 in each poll.  It gets interesting thereafter, with the teams very hard to place.  Is Louisville the team that was ranked #1 in the country or the one that has lost 3 in a row?  What are Notre Dame, Pitt, and Maryland REALLY?  And it is odd to see North Carolina so low.  But do its rivals really care?  Enjoy the middle of the pack.  Virginia could find itself several places higher soon enough. 

Anyway, what do YOU think.  Does Duke still deserve the #1 spot?  Does Syracuse?  Miami?  Someone else?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Jan 2013

Weekend Hoops Review: January 28, 2013

As we draw ever closer to March madness, the weekends become more and more important for ACC basketball fans.  Here are the questions posed before the games, as well as the answers.

Games from Saturday, January 26, 2013:

How will Duke respond to its 27-point loss to Miami this week?  We’ll find out when they take on 15-4 Maryland today.  Expect Coach K’s team to rebound at home–but if they lose???   Wow–what a tough week.

Well, Duke rebounded.  Not literally, as Maryland outrebounded the Blue Devils 42-31.  Duke figuratively rebounded, defeating Maryland in convincing fashion, 84-64.  Freshman Rasheed Sulaimon led the Blue Devils with 25 points, but it was a team effort…offensively and defensively.  With the win, Duke improves to 17-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play.  Despite the loss, Maryland is still 15-5, albeit with a 3-4 conference record.

With apologies to others, today’s North Carolina-North Carolina State game is the best of the day.  NC State is 15-4 and ranked #18.  North Carolina is 13-5 and unranked.  Really, North Carolina is closer to the bottom of the ACC than the top right now–if you count the future members.  You know NC State wants to do to the Tar Heels what Miami did to Duke.

Our NC State correspondent was cautiously optimistic, but it was the caution that was the mistake.  The Pack jumped out to a 45-26 lead at halftime, and then coasted to a 91-83 victory.  Three players had double-doubles: CJ Leslie (17 points, 10 rebounds), Richard Howell (16 points, 14 rebounds), and Lorenzo Brown (2o points, 11 assists).  Oh, and two other players scored in double figures too.  With the win, State has now beaten Duke and UNC, and sits at 5-2 in conference play. 

Louisville’s loss to Syracuse was understandable.  Louisville’s loss to Villanova was far less so.  No rest for the weary as the #5 Cardinals head to Georgetown today.  A win–and the ship is back on course.  A loss?  And now you’ve got a 3-game losing streak.  Can Rick Pitino get his team focused?  We’ll see.

Uh-oh.  Louisville lost again.  Offensively inept Georgetown defeated the Cardinals 53-51, making it three-straight losses for Rich Pitino’s squad.  At the very least, Louisville is not being dominated by teams.  It took a tip-in for this loss.  Needless to say, however, Louisville needs to right the ship fast.  And the schedule does not let up–with Pitt on Monday, as well as games against Marquette, St. Johns, and Notre Dame in the next two weeks.

#3 Syracuse travels to Villanova.  If Villanova can pull another upset, that would be quite a week for the Wildcats.  Syracuse has been treading water, but needs to take care of business today.

The Orange had been playing with fire in the games without James Southerland, and it finally came back to haunt them, losing to Villianova in overtime, 75-71.  Without Southerland, foul trouble cost Syracuse two of its bigs in regulation.  33.3% from the field did not help either.  But don’t feel sorry for Syracuse, they are 18-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play.  They have won 28 of their last 30 Big East regular season games too.

#24 Notre Dame leaves the snow to head to Florida to take on South Florida.  The Bulls are better than most think, but at 10-8 aren’t doing themselves any favors.

The Fighting Irish improved to 16-4 overall by toppling the Bulls, 73-65.  With Villanova, Syracuse, and Louisville on the schedule in the next two weeks, Notre Dame needed to win this winnable game.  

At 16-4, Pitt has hardly been awful this year.  They get to host DePaul today to get that 17th win.

Pitt utterly destroyed DePaul, 93-55.  This puts the Panthers at 17-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play.  Are they back?  Not sure a win over DePaul can provide any answers about that.  We’ll see how it goes against Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Marquette over the next 5 games.  

Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are both hovering at .500 overall.  Georgia Tech is on a 5-game losing streak and needs a win badly.

Georgia Tech got its first conference win of the year, beating up on Wake Forest, 82 to 62.  The Yellow Jackets jumped on the Demon Deacons, racing to a 52-29 lead at halftime.  Georgia Tech was due, if not overdue, for a win, so let’s give them credit for doing so in convincing fashion.  Wake Forest drops to 3-4 in conference play.

At 13-5, Virginia is having a nice, but unspectacular season.  They cannot afford to lose to 9-9 Boston College, obviously.

Despite trailing at halftime, Virginia rallied in the second half to put Boston College away, 65-51.  For the Wahoos, this means avoiding a very ugly loss on the resume.  This also improves them to 14-5 overall and 4-2 in conference play.

Games on Sunday, January 27, 2013:

If only these were football games.

11-7 Virginia Tech travels to 10-8 Clemson for a 1:00 p.m. matchup.  These teams are not likely to be dancing in March, but they need wins to keep NIT hopes alive.

Clemson moved to 11-8 with a 77-70 victory over the now 11-8 Virginia Tech Hokies.  Senior Milton Jennings had his best game ever, with 28 points and 14 rebounds.  He also had four blocks and was an amazing 16 for 18 from the foul line.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and is only 2-4 in conference play.    

At 14-3 overall and 5-0 in conference play, Miami looks to build off its utter destruction of #1 Duke this week.  A win over disappointing Florida State would be a nice rivalry win, as well as a reason to move Miami up substantially in the polls.  The ACC wisely chose to feature this game as its 6:00 p.m. Sunday game.  The Battle for Florida is on.

Miami destroyed Florida State, 71-47, to move to 6-0 in conference play.  At 15-3, Miami is due for a substantial rise in the polls.  Is it an understatement to say that hiring Jim Larranaga was a good idea?  Meanwhile, Florida State continues to struggle… now 3-3 in conference play and 11-8 overall.  

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Jan 2013
1 Comment

State/Carolina Preview

It’s on tonight, State vs UNC.  So I thought it would be a good time to look at some stats, as follows:

All-time record: UNC 147, State 75

At Raleigh: UNC 57, State 44

Roy Williams vs State: 24-1, 19-1 at Carolina

Mark Gottfried vs UNC: 0-3, all at State

This decade: UNC 7, State 0

Last Pack win: 2/3/2007

And with the recent State loss combined with the resurgence of the Heels, the deck seems stacked against us.  However this cockeyed optimist believes that Coach Gottfried, the PNC crowd and our extremely talented players will rise to the occasion the same way they did against Duke and end the streak tonight.

From an overall perspective, this game has long been overshadowed by the UNC-Duke rivalry.  That at least is finally beginning to change, and however this comes out, the nation will pay attention.

Wish I could take credit for knowing all those stats by heart, but the numbers came from the Wikipedia page about the rivalry and the Yahoo! preview.

Hope we land a UNC blogger soon so we can get a little friendly back-and-forth going in the future.  Come on, Tar Heel Nation, step up!

Posted by mikemab2000 in Uncategorized and tagged , ,

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