The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the month “February, 2013”

15 Feb 2013

State of the Pack: Basketball Red Zone

OK, now we find out who the Wolfpack really are.  Are we the team that was the ACC preseason favorite or the one that lost so many games they were supposed to win? Admittedly, winning the regular season is a ship that has sailed; it’s pretty much down to Duke and Miami at this point.

However, the close win over Clemson gave some reason to hope.  This game was the kind the Pack had been losing; a close contest in front of a rabid road crowd (no other kind in the ACC).  But when the Tigers had State on the ropes a funny thing happened; for perhaps the first time this season, the Wolfpack responded and were able to eke out a win over a lower-ranked team.

This is an excellent time to discover that State can win these games.  If you look at the rest of the season, there are no ranked teams left.  Per the most recent poll in the Confidential, and despite Virginia being ahead of them in the standings, NCSU is the third-best in the ACC (current membership, not the “futures”) at this point.  With apologies to our own Mr. Tar Heel, every game is winnable from here on out and I would not be surprised if we did finish 24-7 going into the conference tournament.  Of course, we could also go the other way, but my glass is half full and so, I believe, is the Pack’s.

All starts with Saturday’s game vs Va Tech.  Playing at home, we should show out and not be challenged.  This being the ACC, however, I would be satisfied with a nail-biter victory over Erick Green and company.  In the event of a loss, this post will self-destruct…sorry, watching Ghost Protocol on Netflix…

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, NC State Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , ,
14 Feb 2013
1 Comment

UNC-Duke- The Day After

While the Tar Heels didn’t pull out a victory, they showed a lot of promise and energy, which is a good sign for the rest of the season. They met and exceeded all three of my expectations by playing hard and keeping the game close. Duke wasn’t able to jump out to a big lead at the start of the game because of an improved level of defense, and Carolina actually led the entire first half before going cold offensively. The substitution of PJ Hairston for Desmond Hubert in the starting lineup, proved to be a big boost for the team, and will hopefully be a permanent change. Only time will tell.

While the Tar Heels have the most difficult schedule of any team in the conference (facing all top four teams- Miami, Duke, NCSU and UVA twice), they have the potential to make a good run to close out the season and make a good case for the NCAA Tournament. Their three highest ranked opponents (Duke, UVA and NCSU) are all at home in the Smith Center, as well as their second meeting with FSU who has given them problems in the past. Games with Clemson and GT shouldn’t be overlooked, but despite the current standings, the Tar Heels away game at ACC-turncoat Maryland on March 6 should prove to be one of the toughest matches left.

If the Tar Heels can play with the energy and intensity that they brought to Cameron Indoor last night, they have the ability to have a special ending to an otherwise forgettable season.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Uncategorized
14 Feb 2013
3 Comments

Rutgers Very Nervous: Big 10 Will Not Schedule FCS Games

According to Barry Alvarez, or more accurately according to CBS Sports quoting Alvarez, the Big 10 will no longer schedule games against FCS schools.  The most immediate reaction is extreme nervousness in Rutgers.  However, Rutgers has perfected the art of scheduling crappy FBS teams, so the need for panic is overblown.

For fun, let’s just look at Rutgers’ history in the Big East era (stats courtesy of http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Rutgers.htm#2012).  From 1993 to 2000, Rutgers record was a well below-average 24-63. But at least there are some decent OOC opponents each year, such as Penn State, Notre Dame, and Texas.  In fact, one year–1999–featured Texas, California, and Wake Forest, three major conference opponents.  There were three seasons where Rutgers took on two major conference opponents, 1993, 1995, and 2000.  Not that Duke is that strong an opponent, but it’s still reasonable.

But then in 2001, a scheduling philosophy emerged–cupcake city.  From 2001 to 2011, the BEST OOC opponents scheduled by Rutgers for each season were as follows:

  • 2001: A 1-10 California team
  • 2002: Tough schedule–Tennessee and Notre Dame
  • 2003: Michigan State
  • 2004: Michigan State
  • 2005: Navy (only BCS foe was Illinois)
  • 2006: North Carolina
  • 2007: Maryland
  • 2008: North Carolina
  • 2009: Maryland
  • 2010: North Carolina
  • 2011: North Carolina
  • 2012: Arkansas

Thus, between 2003 and 2011, the toughest opponent Rutgers faced was some combination of North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland, and Navy.   But it is not like Rutgers was scheduling in quantity, with three BCS foes.  Instead, for the most part, it was Army and Navy that would provide the more difficult 2nd and 3rd games.  The rest of the schedule would be MACtion and FCS.  Not surprisingly, playing these soft schedules led to a historical surge in wins.

Sure, you say… the Big East was too strong for Rutgers to schedule tough.  Really?  In 2002, equally inept Temple scheduled South Carolina and Oregon State.  Pitt scheduled Notre Dame and Texas A&M.  Boston College scheduled Stanford and Notre Dame.  West Virginia scheduled Wisconsin and Maryland.  Syracuse scheduled Auburn and North Carolina.  Virginia Tech scheduled LSU and Texas A&M (in addition to rivalry game against Virginia).  Miami scheduled Tennessee and Florida (in addition to rivalry game against Florida State).

OK, perhaps you can rationalize that because that was the older, tougher Big East.  Fast forward to 2007.  Rutgers OOC slate was Maryland (6-7), Buffalo (MAC), Navy (8-5), Army (3-9), and Norfolk State (FCS).  In contrast, Syracuse scheduled Washington, Illinois, and Iowa.  Pitt scheduled Michigan State and Virginia.  Louisville had Utah, Kentucky, and NC State on the slate.  UConn–just making the move to FBS–scheduled Virginia and Duke.  South Florida challenged itself with North Carolina and Auburn.  Cincinnati had a weak schedule too, with only Oregon State having any relevance. West Virginia had Maryland and Mississippi State.  Again, if Rutgers was not the weakest schedule, it was second weakest to only Cincinnati.

2012?  With the recent success, surely Rutgers would have taken on some tough opponents?  Nah.  Rutgers deserves credit for scheduling a trip to Arkansas–the first game against an arguable king of college football since 2002.  But the rest of the schedule was Tulane, Howard, Kent, and Army.  Wow.  Again, the other Big East schools were way ahead of Rutgers.  Temple could not get a 5th OOC game, but still found room for Penn State and Maryland.  UConn missed a bowl, but scheduled North Carolina State and Maryland.  Pitt had Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on the slate.  South Florida faced local kings Miami and Florida State.  Syracuse had an incredible Northwestern, Minnesota (road), USC (neutral), and Missouri (road).  Cincinnati was weak–with only Virginia Tech being a tough foe.  Finally, Louisville had North Carolina and Kentucky.  Again, Cincinnati is the only school providing Rutgers competition for weakest schedule.

While the Big 10 shifts away from FCS games, Rutgers will still be able to sprinkle in the MACtion and Army/Navy games.  At least playing a Big 10 schedule will provide some toughness.  Although Penn State’s sanctions and Maryland’s woes mean that the two rivals will be well-below par.  But at least Rutgers will see what it is like to play multiple football kings in a single season.  It has not happened much in the past 20 years and almost never in the past dozen.  Winning is impressive, but only when you beat good teams too.  Going big time might mean a return to small time win totals.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
13 Feb 2013

Duke-Carolina- The season begins or ends here for the Tar Heels

It’s been called many things. The “greatest rivalry of all time.” The “unofficial start of the basketball season.” College basketball’s only “national rivalry.” It’s seen Gerald Henderson throw his elbow into Tyler Hansbrough’s face, Austin Rivers make “the shot,” and future surprise NBA superstar Danny Green leap over a flopping Greg Paulus. But tonight’s UNC-Duke game represents so much more than that for the 2012-2013 North Carolina Tar Heels. It represents a chance at redemption. So much of the season has been characterized as a disappointment. Carolina fans just aren’t used to a 16-7 record and NCAA Bubble talk in mid-February, but this year it’s a reality. Carolina NEEDS to win this game. Is it fair to the team for fans to act so spoiled? Probably not. It’s one thing to expect excellence, but another to demand it on an insane level. After losing four first round draft picks to the NBA, another Final Four was not a realistic expectation. This is a YOUNG team.

So what are MY expectations for tonight as a UNC fan?

1) That the game will be competitive

We’re going into a hostile environment, much like we did on Saturday, and we got destroyed. Duke has great fans, I’ll be the first to admit that. Cameron Indoor and the Crazies give Duke one of the best home-court advantages in the country, despite what derogatory things their fans may or may not say. Condolences to NC State’s Tyler Lewis. The Tar Heels need to learn from their mistakes and play at a high-level the WHOLE game. Second-half runs against Butler and NC State show that they can hang with the big guys if they try. They have the talent, and what they lack in experience, they should make up for in effort. Carolina can’t get behind early, or its chance at a competitive edge will be gone.

2) That the UNC lineup will start to reflect real-game results, not practice performance

I love Roy Williams, and I’m a big believer in what he does. Fans can criticize him for being stingy with his timeouts, or not putting certain players on the floor, but he knows the team better than any of us do. We’re not in the locker room. We’re not in practice. He’s loyal, and to be honest, he’s not the one playing the game. It’s the players. So when he takes credit for each and every loss I really respect that because it’s fundamentally not his fault. At the same time, I’ve watched so many games this year where lineups just haven’t worked. For whatever reason, this year’s team seems to have a hard time getting started. This has led to big deficits early on. Roy has experimented a lot and that’s okay because these are young players who are adjusting to their own individual roles on the team. But this is the Duke game. This is not the time for experimentation. The best players need to be on the floor as much as possible. And the best players during the game may be different than the “best players” in the last practice and the “best players” so far this season. Roy needs to stick to the hot hand tonight. There’s too much on the line for anything less.

3) That UNC will do a better job of guarding the three-point line

Duke lives and dies by the three, it’s a fact. They were off at Miami and we all know what happened then. But this is Duke-Carolina and it’s on an entirely different level than that, no matter what Miami’s ranked and what UNC’s not. UNC needs quality wins and a postseason berth IS at stake tonight whether the team will admit it or not. Since the game is at Duke, I don’t expect them to be off tonight. Duke has great fans. So it’s extremely important that Carolina does a better job of covering the three. Our perimeter defense is notoriously bad and it has been for years. But this year’s team is a guard-oriented group which gives us the opportunity to change this for the better. Mason Plumlee is a force inside, but Seth Curry earns more points each time he scores. Our focus needs to be on Curry and the other Duke three-point shooters, not Plumlee. With Joel James out we just don’t have the size to do that anyway. The Tar Heels NEED to commit to better perimeter defense or they cannot be competitive.

I’m cautiously optimistic about tonight’s game. Yes, it is a long-shot that Carolina wins. On paper, Duke just has a better team, even without Ryan Kelly. More experience, more size, a home-court advantage. But this is Duke-Carolina and anything, I mean ANYTHING, can happen. If the Tar Heels can pull out the win, then they’ll have a lot of momentum going into the last half of conference play.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Basketball, March Madness, UNC Correspondent, Uncategorized
13 Feb 2013
36 Comments

ACC Poll Day–If Notre Dame Went All-In with the ACC, Who Do You Like For Team #16

Today is a good day for a poll.  Query–if Notre Dame was to shock the world by going “all-in” for the ACC, giving it 15 teams, who would you like for team #16?  Let’s assume that schools from the SEC, Big XII, and Big 10 are out of the mix because…. they are.  Nobody is taking a pay cut to join the ACC.  It is what it is.

The candidates:

  • Connecticut.  Pros–outstanding hoops (mens and womens) & competent football, with at least one BCS appearance.  Rivalries with Syracuse and Pitt, and a huge rivalry potential with Boston College.  Even Duke-UConn womens hoops would be huge.  Cons–only competent football, not outstanding football.  Geographical overlap with Boston College.  Not a pedigreed football name.
  • Cincinnati.  Pros–new market (southern Ohio), good football recently, and some decent hoops.  Close to Pittsburgh & Louisville for potential rivalries.  Cons–small market, as Ohio is dominated by Ohio State, while neighboring Kentucky is  swallowed by Louisville and Kentucky.
  • Navy.  Pros–national name and a partner for Notre Dame.  Back into the Maryland/DC market.  Cons–terrible hoops in the post-David Robinson era.  Football would not exactly be an upgrade–although it is hard to say that Navy is demonstrably worse than UConn or Cincinnati in the big picture.
  • South Florida.  Pros–outstanding location for football recruiting and potential.  Cons–ACC already has the Florida market in check with Miami and FSU.  Hoops team has not done much, and the football team has underachieved of late.  Not a national name by any stretch.
  • Temple.  Pros–Philly market, good hoops history, and potential for football.  Cons–football has been more bad than good in the modern era, especially in the absence of a certain Mr. Golden.
  • Hybrid craziness.  Let’s say #16 gets to be UConn for hoops, Navy for football, and Johns Hopkins for lacrosse–take it or leave it, folks.  Or some other combination, like VCU for hoops subbing in for a UConn not being happy with a partial membership.

Anyone else out there?  This seems to be the list.

Who do you like and why?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference Realignment, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
12 Feb 2013
11 Comments

Conference Realignment–ACC Needs to be Wary of History Repeating Itself

Frank the Tank has a new entry for your perusal.  In this latest blog entry, the opinion is that Fox, rather than ESPN, is responsible for the demise of the Big East.  The Confidential disagrees.  Moreover, the Confidential cannot help but think that the ACC needs to be very wary of the destruction of the Big East to prevent, to the extent possible, the demise of our great conference.

As a preliminary matter, there is no doubt that Fox’s entry into the sports networking landscape has been a contributing factor.  If nothing else, the partnership with the Big 10 has dramatically altered the college sports landscape.   Fox’s role in conference realignment is obvious.

But the demise of the Big East began long before the loss of Rutgers, Maryland/Louisville, Notre Dame, and the Catholic-7.  Rather, the demise began with the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse.  And, really, the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse began with the inability of ESPN and the Big East to negotiate a restructured deal.  While ESPN was willing to ride the Longhorn Network into town to save the Big XII, ESPN did not bother to do anything to save the Big East from demise.  Rather, it allowed (directed?) it’s partner, the ACC, to take two of the Big East’s most valuable properties–Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  Even if Fox was behind every other move that decimated the Big East (see West Virginia, TCU, Maryland, and Rutgers), the reality is that ESPN never stepped up to the plate to save the Big East.

As ESPN continues to lose the rights to major college programs, one wonders if ESPN is going to go the route of MTV.  Once, MTV showed videos… with an occasional non-video show sprinkled in.  At some point, MTV stopped showing videos.  And it’s been decades since this author has cared about MTV.  Every pass through revealed less about “music” and more about reality TV.  Presumably, MTV is still profitable and pleasing to its owners.  Is ESPN going to follow suit and devote more resources to news & shows where reporters yell at each other?   It certainly runs contrary to the prevailing logic that live sports are among the best television products out there because people cannot fast forward through the commercials.

In any event, the question that begs is whether ESPN will step up to the plate to “save the ACC.”   ESPN helped save the Big XII.  But, with every program that moves from the ACC to the Big XII or Big 10, ESPN will lose the exclusive rights to that school.  And one wonders whether Fox will be content to allow ESPN to share in the Big XII and Big 10.  If this is a business battle between Fox and ESPN, Fox seems to be winning.  The Big East was “collateral damage” in that battle.  The ACC needs to ensure that ESPN does not view the ACC as collateral damage.  It is unclear exactly what the ACC can do… but at least being wary of ESPN and history repeating itself is a very small step one.

What do YOU think?  Is ESPN working for or against the ACC these days?


Meet Christian Singles - Free Trial!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
11 Feb 2013

The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: February 11, 2013

Note: This poll was completed prior to Monday evening’s games. We apologize for the late publication. We DO NOT apologize for the ranking for your team.

#1 Miami. 3 first place votes. 68 pts.

#2 Duke. 2 first place votes. 67 pts.

#3 Syracuse. 1 first place vote. 62 pts.

#4 Notre Dame. 46 pts.

#5 Louisville. 45 pts.

#6 NC State. 44 pts.

#7 Pittsburgh. 38 pts.

#8 North Carolina. 30 pts.

#9 Virginia. 27 pts.

#10 Maryland. 19 pts.

#11 Florida State. 13 pts.

#12 Georgia Tech. 5 pts.

Clemson and Wake Forest also received votes.

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Correspondent Poll, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
11 Feb 2013
6 Comments

Jimbo Fisher will win a National Championship at Florida State

Before we discuss Florida State’s recruiting class, I’d like to give you some context:

  • Mark Stoops, Defensive Coordinator, left to be Head Coach at Kentucky.
  • DJ Eliot, Defensive Line Coach, left to be Defensive Coordinator at Kentucky.
  • Eddie Gran, Running Backs Coach, left to be Offensive Coordinator at Cincinatti.
  • Dameyune Craig, Quarterbacks Coach, left to be Offensive Coordinator at Auburn.
  • Greg Hudson, Linebackers Coach, left to be Defensive Coordinator at Purdue.
  • James Coley, Offensive Coordinator, left to be (real) Offensive Coordinator at Miami.

A typical college football coaching staff has approximately 10 coaches.  Head coach, offensive and defensive coordinators, and position coaches (quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, secondary).  The list above represents the coaches Florida State lost in one off-season; the most recent defection to a rival, two weeks from signing day, hurt the most.  As soon as Jimbo Fisher hires his last assistant, I will follow-up with profiles on each of the new coaches.

But let that last point sink in some—Jimbo didn’t just finalize this class without an assistant coach, but that assistant coach happened to be his best recruiter who recruits the Miami territory.  And as he admitted in his post-signing day press conference, Jimbo found himself doing the grunt work for the home stretch.

After all the dust settled, Florida State signed another top 10 class.  Many insiders are a touch disappointed because it could have been better.  There were a few that got away, like Denver Kirkland (OL) and Stacy Coley (WR).  More reason for concern is the lack of offensive line depth.  Florida State easily expected to sign 5-6 offensive lineman and only came away with 3 true offensive lineman and, potentially, a tight-end turned tackle in a few years time.  The rest of the class, however, is absolutely stacked.

The three best players in this class are on defense: Demarcus Walker (DE), Matthew Thomas (LB), and Jalen Ramsey (CB).  All are blue chips and considered top 5 at their position.  Meanwhile, Florida State’s seemingly singular focus on offense was speed.  And a lot of it.  For the second consecutive year, Florida State may have signed the fastest player in the country (last year it was Marvin Bracy, this year it is Kermit Whitfield).  Bracy and Whitfield have broken all types of track records.  Bracy is most known for his performance in this race.  And for the naysayers, yes, he’s fast in pads, too.  And I’d be remiss if I didn’t also show you Kermit Whitfield’s speed as well.  Jimbo’s strategy seems simple: a big, punishing, suffocating defense and burning speed on offense.  The SEC is awaiting a challenger to their style of smash mouth football but I think Jimbo is building the blueprint to challenge and break the paradigm.

And it all ties to the types of players Jimbo signs.  Athletes.  Smart kids with character.  Some blue chippers, some with chips on their shoulder.  This class will not go down as heralded as others, but these are handpicked players by Jimbo.  They fit the blueprint to a T.  This class also seems awfully reminiscent of FSU’s class of 2009 and 2010 — classes that are sending 13 players to the NFL combine.  It was this group that finally turned the corner for the program.  And each and every year, Jimbo just keeps adding to that foundation.

Lastly, looking around the rest of the ACC, and I’m sure my colleagues will correct me, it seems the top third of the conference is doing just fine in football performance.  However, the bottom two-thirds of the conference turned in weak performances.  I’m a little concerned by this.  The ACC will get better contracts for having a solid top-to-bottom slate.  The ACC is not capable of offering that right now, but then again, if you take away the SEC’s championship caliber teams, they aren’t all that different from the other conferences.

Posted by Duke in Football, FSU Correspondent and tagged , , , , ,
10 Feb 2013

Southerland’s Return Caps a Good Week for the Orange

When snowstorms hit the northeast and your team is down to seven scholarship players, panic sets in.  When senior sharpshooter James Southerland returns in time for the St. John’s game, a huge sigh of relief is let out.  This was an important week for the Orange to win both home games after stumbling the week before.  After a great win against Notre Dame early in the week the Orange took care of business today by beating St. John’s.

Southerland was reinstated after sitting out due to an undisclosed reason.  He provides both great depth and balance.  Without him, the Orange became more predictable.  With him, a deep postseason run becomes more viable as the Orange also hope for a speedy recovery from Freshman Dajuan Coleman. 

This week for the Orange are two road games at UConn on Wednesday and Seton Hall on Saturday.  No Big East road game is easy, but two wins here could propel them to where they want to be as the regular season starts to wind down.  Also, the win today was the 37th home win in a row.

Posted by tjcuseacc in Uncategorized
09 Feb 2013
2 Comments

Krispy Kreme Challenge 2013

2400 calories, 12 doughnuts, 5 miles, 1 hour

The Krispy Kreme Challenge was started 9 years ago as a dare between a few NC State students. Run 2.5 miles from the bell tower, eat a dozen doughnuts, run back. Since then, the event has exploded. It’s been featured in places like Sports Illustrated, and has inspired dozens of other food-themed races across the country. The 2013 winner was Timothy Ryan of Madison, Wi. with a time of 31 minutes, 32 seconds. Pretty impressive. This year, there was even a costume contest. Pac-Man, the ghosts and the little white ball were all present. So were Mario and his crew, fairies, Krispy Kreme cups with lipstick, sumo wrestlers, and giant costumed hamsters. It was awesome. The Krispy Kreme Challenge was not a race, it was a spectacle.

But it’s not just fun and games. At this year’s event, 8,000 runners raised $177,000 for the North Carolina Children’s Hospital. Total donations since the beginning total over $500,000, and all proceeds for any past and future races will always go to this cause. It’s amazing.

I was lucky enough to be one of those runners and competed in the challenge for the first time. It was a great experience. Not only do I feel honored that I was able to take part in such a great event, but somehow, I ate all 12 doughnuts and didn’t get sick. Even though NC State is not my ACC school, I’m proud to have been a part of this event. The ACC is more than a conference. Its members are more than schools. And this event is a great example of the type of impact that we can all have on the world around us.

To learn more about the Krispy Kreme Challenge, and to find information about next year’s race, visit http://www.krispykremechallenge.com/

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Non-Serious, UNC Correspondent, Uncategorized

Post Navigation

← Older Entries
Newer Entries →