The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the month “June, 2016”

NBA Draft Recap

The Confidential notes that the ACC was well-represented in last week’s NBA draft.  Indeed, the following ACC players were drafted:

  • Duke’s Brandon Ingram went #2 to the Lakers
  • Florida State’s Malik Beasley went #19 to the Nuggets
  • Syracuse’s Malachi Richardson went #22 to the Hornets
  • North Carolina’s Brice Johnson went #25 to the Clippers
  • Virginia’s Malcolm Brogdon went #36 to the Bucks
  • Louisville’s Chinanu Onuaku went #37 to the Rockets
  • Notre Dame’s Demetrius Jackson went #45 to the Celtics
  • Syracuse’s Michael Gbinije went #49 to the Pistons
  • North Carolina’s Marcus Paige went #55 to the Nets

Thus, 9 of the 60 draftees were ACC products.  Of course, with 15 foreign players drafted, 9 of 45 college players drafted were from the ACC.  This is a solid 20%.  With college basketball being so much deeper than college football, this is an outstanding percentage for any conference.

 

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Syracuse

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Syracuse, the over-under was set at 5.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Orange fell short of that, resulting in a coaching change.  This year, there is optimism with a new coaching staff and scheme–but concern regarding the defense and the ordinarily challenging OOC schedule.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Syracuse at 4.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/2/16: Colgate
  • 9/9/16: Louisville
  • 9/17/16: South Florida
  • 9/24/16: @ UConn
  • 10/1/16: Notre Dame (neutral site)
  • 10/8/16: @ Wake Forest
  • 10/15/16: Virginia Tech
  • 10/22/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/5/16: @ Clemson
  • 11/12/16: NC State
  • 11/19/16: Florida State
  • 11/26/16: @ Pitt

Very likely wins: Colgate, UConn

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Pitt

Verdict: Syracuse has struggled to beat Pitt on the road (since 2001) and is a long shot to beat Notre Dame, Clemson, or Florida State.  Still, it is not hard to believe that the team cannot find a few wins among USF, Wake Forest, Boston College, and North Carolina State.  Also, look for Dino Babers’ squad to pull at least one mild upset–perhaps Louisville or Virginia Tech.  A bowl game may be a year away though.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 4.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Syracuse go over or under 4.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Pitt

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Pitt, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Pitt ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Pitt at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/3/16: Villanova
  • 9/10/16: Penn State
  • 9/17/16: @ Oklahoma State
  • 9/24/16: @ North Carolina
  • 10/1/16: Marshall
  • 10/8/16: Georgia Tech
  • 10/15/16: @ Virginia
  • 10/27/16: Virginia Tech
  • 11/5/16: @ Miami
  • 11/12/16: @ Clemson
  • 11/19/16: Duke
  • 11/26/16: Syracuse

Very likely wins: Villanova, Marshall, Syracuse

Very likely losses: @ Oklahoma State, @ Clemson

Verdict: Pitt had a very good season last year, but the schedule is tougher in 2016.  Villanova will be a feisty FCS opponent (ask Syracuse), while Penn State returns to the schedule the following week creating a chance for a “look ahead” situation.  But you have to beat your FCS opponent and your non-P5 opponent (Marshall).  Meanwhile, Syracuse has not beaten Pitt in Pitt since… 2001… so that’s three wins.  Road trips to Oklahoma State and Clemson should be losses.  That leaves 7 middle-ground games.  Trips to Virginia, Miami,and North Carolina are far from certain losses, obviously.  Home games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech are all winnable, obviously.  Would losses in any of them be shocking though?  Nope.  With a tough OOC, we’ll leave Pitt where it was last year–straddling the 7-8 win mark.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Notre Dame

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Notre Dame, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Fighting Irish ended up with 10 regular season wins, with losses at Clemson and Stanford being the only regular season blemishes.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Notre Dame at 10.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/4/16: @ Texas
  • 9/10/16: Nevada
  • 9/17/16: Michigan State
  • 9/24/16: Duke
  • 10/1/16: Syracuse (neutral site)
  • 10/8/16: @ NC State
  • 10/15/16: Stanford
  • 10/29/16: Miami
  • 11/5/16: Army
  • 11/12/16: Navy
  • 11/19/16: Virginia Tech
  • 11/26/16: @ USC

Very likely wins: Nevada, Syracuse, @ NC State, Army, Navy

Very likely losses: Texas or USC

Verdict: Wow… pretty rare to see a football schedule with only three road games.  The neutral site game against Syracuse will likely be a de facto home game.  How can Notre Dame not have a great season?   Well, do not sleep on Michigan State, Duke, Miami, and Va Tech.  And Stanford is always a potential loss.  Meanwhile, one of Texas or USC–elite programs struggling recently–can pull off a home win over Notre Dame.  Still, this is a very favorable schedule.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 10.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Notre Dame go over or under 10.5 regular season wins?

9-Game Schedule Discussions/Confidential’s Proposal

The ACC is reportedly dabbling with the idea of a 9-game schedule again.  The idea is to create more conference property, which ESPN can buy–giving all conference members a boost in revenue.  What does the blogosphere think? And what options are there?

  • Syracuse is not sure whether it would help or hurt.  The Confidential tends to think that any discretion removed from Syracuse A.D.s–who seem convinced that this is still 1959 and Syracuse should play elite programs every year–cannot hurt.
  • Boston College seems in favor of the move, but skeptical that the power brokers would go for it.
  • At least one Clemson source reports it matter-of-factly, with the fan/comments suggesting that this is opposed significantly.   Indeed, for the schools playing SEC opponents, this is a tough sell.

As for the Confidential, the position is somewhat different.  Any plan for the current schools needs to reflect the unique scheduling issues facing Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Louisville.  Of course, those schools need to realize that Notre Dame is teetering a bit right now and might be obtainable, while ESPN is also pushing the increased inventory argument pretty hard.  The solution?

The Confidential’s Solution is this.

First, here is your schedule:

  • FSU, Clemson, Ga Tech, Louisville–8 conference games (recognizing the annual game against an SEC foe)
  • Notre Dame–8 conference games (with USC and Navy permanently on schedule, this assures a 9th game against a P5 school… but still room to schedule a Texas school or Stanford, or Air Force or a Big 10 school.  No worries about being stuck having to schedule FCS opponents).
  • The remaining 10 schools play 9 conference games (now all schools have guaranteed 9 games against P5 opponents)

Second, here are your new divisions:

  • None–divisions are over.  Too cumbersome for scheduling purposes.

Third, but, but, but… with unbalanced conference games, how do you decide a league champion?  Simple–based on OVERALL RECORD, rather than conference record.  The top two teams based on OVERALL RECORD play in the ACC Championship Game.  This means that Florida State and Clemson could play in a Championship game if they have the two best records.  Alternatively, it means that any school with a great overall record can get in.  The two teams most in contention for a playoff spot will play each other.

While this lowers the chance of two ACC schools making the playoffs, it increases the chance of at least one school making the playoff.  Is it better for Florida State to beat a 9-3 Coastal team or is it better to take the chance at beating an 11-1 Clemson or 11-1 Notre Dame?  With the Big XII moving to a conference title game, the rematch is guaranteed.  The ACC needs to keep pace to avoid being shut out from time to time.

And who says conference records MUST be more important?  Each conference can decide its champion and championship game members as it sees fit.  Perhaps someday the ACC and SEC will each have 16 schools and can play a complete SEC-ACC challenge in the final week.  If so, all schools can then play the same number of conference games.  But, for now, why not make everyone happy?

Of course, ESPN may “demand” that the ACC add UConn.  If so, then there will be 11 schools outside of the 8-game requirement.  This just means that one school has to join the 8-game ranks every year… rotating, that is one slot every 11 years.  Pretty sure that will not cause a destruction of the model.  Not the end of the world for football, and certainly would not hurt hoops whatsoever.  And if this truly does lead to a profitable ACC Network, it is ALL worth it.

In the meantime, having 10 schools go to 9 conference games, as well as two more Notre Dame games, means a slight increase in inventory.  If UConn is added, even more inventory.  And that is just football alone.  UConn womens’ hoops on the ACC Network?  ACC lacrosse?  ACC baseball?  ACC mens basketball.  You get the drift.  The means to an end are not always pretty.  If this keeps everyone happy, why not?

What do you think of this alternative? 

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Louisville

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Louisville, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Louisville ended up with 7 regular season wins, with the losses to Houston and Pittsburgh being relative “surprises.”  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Louisville at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/1/16: Charlotte
  • 9/9/16: @ Syracuse
  • 9/17/16: Florida State
  • 9/24/16: @ Marshall
  • 10/1/16: @ Clemson
  • 10/14/16: Duke
  • 10/22/16: NC State
  • 10/29/16: @ Virginia
  • 11/5/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/12/16: Wake Forest
  • 11/17/16: @ Houston
  • 11/26/16: Kentucky

Very likely wins: Charlotte, Wake Forest, Kentucky

Very likely losses: Florida State, @ Clemson

Verdict: With OOC trips to Marshall and Houston, Louisville has scheduled outside of the P5 conferences, but challenged itself significantly.  Throw in trips to Syracuse, Boston College, and Virginia, and three “very likely home wins” become three very challenging road conference games.  Duke and NC State will not be pushovers from the home slate either.  A sweep of all seven of those games is not impossible, but realistically not likely either.  In fact, it is certainly plausible for two or three of those games to be losses.  All in all, this is looking like a tough year for Louisville compared to the expectations of the fan base.  It is hard to envision wins over Florida State and Clemson.  Even assuming significant success beyond those two games, that does not give much cushion in an improving conference.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Louisville go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

Conference Expansion News, June 2, 2016

The Big XII is expanding, a rumor states.  The Big XII is NOT expanding, a rumor states.  The Big XII is getting a network, a rumor states.  The Big XII is NOT getting a network, a rumor states.  The Big XII is going to share a network with the ACC, a rumor states.  No it is not.  And so on.  Also, “rumor” also seems to include targeted media leaks by various Big XII schools with unique agendas, so it is not all Twitter-based fodder.  In the end, nobody has any idea what the Big XII will do.

In calmer seas, fans of ACC schools could simply grab a bag of popcorn and watch this inter-conference schizophrenia unfold.  But the landscape of conference realignment remains concerning, as the ACC has its own vulnerabilities and financial gap.  Also, several ACC schools could be in trouble if conference realignment picks up steam.  And even the no-brainer elite schools want to control their future, not be “stuck” in any conference.

Admittedly, the idea of a joint network with the Big XII and ACC has some appeal.  With very little geographic overlap, the two conferences could supply an ESPN channel with plenty of content.  This might also set the table well for various basketball and football “challenges” between the conference, as well as scheduling benefits.  What the ACC provides in population access, the Big XII adds with the State of Texas and slightly more football credibility.  So perhaps such a venture has some potential to be a win-win-win for both conferences and ESPN (who could also direct some content to the SEC network, if necessary).  Moreover, any strengthening of these two conferences would be a stick in the eye to the Big 10, which may still have some value to ESPN folks.

Of course, how to make money is quickly subsumed by how to divide it.  First, Texas still has the Longhorn Network deal.  Second, Notre Dame has its own TV deal.  Third, Notre Dame has its quasi-membership in the ACC.  Fourth, BYU remains looking as a school to do the same.  Fifth, does the Big XII slide up to 12 or 14 or 15 schools to even the conferences up?  And Sixth, how would money get divided anyway–1/3 to Big XII, 1/3 to ACC, 1/3 to ESPN?  Who knows?  But there are far too many proverbial “alpha dogs” in this mix to think it can all get worked out.

In any event, the Big XII may or may not be doing any number of things.  The ACC schools stay quiet, which is some sort of minor testament to the conference’s stability.  Hopefully.  But this realignment issue never seems to die.  So pay attention.

What do you think?  What is the future for the Big XII, ACC, and networks?

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