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05 Jan 2012
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ACC Football: The Need for Florida State and Miami

The formula is pretty simple for the ACC.  It needs Miami and Florida State to play like kings.  It needs Virginia Tech and Clemson to be the next closes thing to a king.  And it needs a few other schools to rise up every few years and/or win impressive out-of-conference games, including bowl games.  But none of that works unless Miami and Florida State can return to something closer to the glory days.  They are the schools that need to carry the conference in football.

The Kings

Football is an elitist sport.  No matter how bad Ohio State and Florida might be, a win over those schools means a lot and a loss to these schools is respectable.  In contrast, losing to Iowa State is an unacceptable result.  Nevermind that Iowa State had the same regular season record as those schools in 2011, Oklahoma State was punished substantially for its loss to Iowa State.  Iowa State is simply not Ohio State or Florida, regardless of the record.

Once upon a time, Miami and Florida State were kings.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State went 11-1, 11-1, 10-2, 10-2, 11-2, 11-1, 12-1, 10-1-1, 10-2, 11-1, 11-1, 11-2, 12-0, and 11-2.  From 1983 to 2003, Miami had more than a dozen 10 win seasons, including three undefeated seasons. That is how you become a king–you win 10 or more games more often than not (or consecutively) for so long that people do not even know what it is like for you to not be in the top 10, much less unranked.

But that all ended in 2004, when Miami joined the ACC.  Perhaps not because of the move to the ACC.  But the move has certainly coincided with the fall from the top.  Since then, Miami has not had a 10-win season.  Florida State had one–in 2010.  Instead of playing like kings, these schools have played like princes.  Or worse.  Boston College won 10 games in both 2006 and 2007.  Wake Forest won 11 in 2006.  Obviously, it is not impossible to win 10+ games in the ACC.  The Florida schools just have not been able to do so.

For 2011, it was more of the same.  Miami went a pedestrian 6-6.  Good enough for a bowl, but the looming scandal persuaded the administrators to prudently pass that up.  Florida State did better, going 9-4.  But that is still not king territory.

What Went Wrong

The easiest answer is to blame the coaching situation.  Bobby Bowden might have stayed a bit too long–past his prime.  And Miami fired Larry Coker for having the audacity to not win 10 games and did not replace him.  Unlike the pros, college sports is dominated by coaches.

But the Confidential thinks it goes deeper than that.  In recent years, many schools have taken to recruiting Florida heavily.  When Greg Schiano moved up to Rutgers, he kept his Florida ties and established a pipeline from Miami to New Jersey.  The Louisville coaching staffs have consistently focused on Florida, from John L. Smith to present.  Wherever Rich Rodriguez was during the 2000’s, he recruited top athletes from Florida.  Add in the usual suspects, such as all of the SEC and ACC, as well as Notre Dame, and Florida talent is not slipping by.

Meanwhile, South Florida and Central Florida have arrived on the scene.  These schools have the ability to siphon off some of the great talent, while also keeping some of the good talent at home.  South Florida has made great strides toward converting Florida into a Big Four.

Will it Change?

Well, this is two straight 9-4 seasons for Florida State.  And it is a young team that can legitimately be projected to get over the 10-win barrier next year.  They have continued to stockpile talent via recent recruiting classes.  If it can translate into on-field performance, then Florida State will be back.

Miami is a different story.  While the scandal from last summer has died down, the NCAA is likely to dole out some sort of punishment.  So it is going to get worse before it gets better.  But Al Golden seems like the right fit to get the job done.  He kept that team together for most of the season.  Take away the head-scratching losses to Maryland (suspension-filled) and BC (already announced it was not bowling), and Miami was only beaten by Virginia, Va Tech, Kansas State and Florida State.  Four games by a total of 18 points.  If the sanctions are not too significant, Miami can rebound in a few years.

The bottom line is that the ACC needs things to change.  Virginia Tech and Clemson may win a national title some day, but failing to do so when Miami and FSU were reeling suggests otherwise.  As the bowl losses and national-reputation hits mount, it is going to take one or both of the Florida schools to state the ACC’s case on the national picture.  The sooner, the better.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , ,
04 Jan 2012

Maryland Gets 10th Win, Defeats Cornell

Bouncing back from a disappointing 3-3 start to the season, Maryland improved to 10-3 with a 70-62 win over Cornell.  That makes seven straight wins for Maryland as it heads into conference play.

At one point, it was looking like the Terps basketball season might rival the football team.  While there is no shame in losing to Illinois or Alabama, the 26-point drubbing by Iona on a neutral court in November suggested that this would be a tough year.  But Maryland has gone a great run to get itself back into position for a spot in the Big Dance.

Against Cornell, Sean Mosely led the way with 19 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.  Alex Len added 15 points and 9 rebounds.  Terrell Stoglin scored 14 points, but struggled to a 6 for 16 shooting night.  Maryland’s defense was also sound, holding the Big Red to 42.3% shooting from the field, including 23.3% from three-point range.  With the loss, Cornell drops to 4-9.

For Maryland, they enter ACC play on a hot streak.  But it quickly ends as they travel to North Carolina State on Sunday.  One of these teams is going to have to lose.  The Wolfpack are 10-4, having won 5 of their last 6 games–with the loss being to #1 Syracuse.  They also play Delaware State on Wednesday, so they have a decent chance of getting their 11th win before conference play kicks off.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , ,
03 Jan 2012

#21 Virginia Defeats LSU, Improves to 13-1

At the beginning of the year, the ACC only had two ranked teams–Duke and North Carolina.  Virginia has climbed into the rankings with a solid November and December.  Virginia’s January got off to a great start, as the #21 Cavaliers traveled to Baton Rouge to defeat LSU, 57-52, to improve to 13-1.

This game was a very close, defensive struggle as both teams shot less than 45% from the field.  It was tied at halftime, 26-26.  And, with five minutes to go, the Cavs trailed 47-46.  But Virginia was fairly clutch down the stretch with its free throw shooting and three-point shots to pull off the victory.

Virginia was led by Sammy Zeglinski’s 17 points.  Joe Harris added 14 points, while Mike Scott had 12 points and 9 rebounds.  Virginia opens the ACC schedule on Saturday against Miami.

Speaking of Miami, the ended the out-of-conference schedule with a 99-89 win over North Carolina-Greensboro.  Kenny Kadji scored led Miami with 30 points and 12 rebounds.  Three other Hurricanes finished in double-digits in scoring.

But the rest of the ACC fared poorly. Wake Forest lost some significant momentum by losing to Wofford, at home, 56-52.   Wake Forest had won 3 in a row and was looking to get its 10th overall win.  With the loss, Wake drops to 9-5 as it heads into conference play.

Meanwhile, Boston College continued to cement its position as the cellar-dweller in the ACC, losing to Rhode Island in double-overtime, 78-72.  The Eagles dropped to 5-9 with the home loss to the Rams (who improved to 3-12).  It’s going to be a very long season for Boston College.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
02 Jan 2012

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for January 2, 2012

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for January 12, 2012:

  1. Syracuse (15-0).  One of only four unbeatens.  Travel to Providence before hosting scrappy Marquette on Saturday.  Marquette has had Syracuse’s number lately.
  2. Kentucky (13-1).  Loss to Indiana hurts, but rallied to beat Louisville.  Next test is Saturday against South Carolina.
  3. North Carolina (13-2).  No real tough games for a while.  Duke will be tested more often over the next few weeks.
  4. Duke (12-1).  Ready to leapfrog North Carolina with a few more wins.  Upcoming game against Temple is a start.
  5. Missouri (13-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have better wins than Baylor.  That will not last forever, but that is how it is right now.
  6. Baylor (13-0).  The Big XII will separate the men from the boys.  Soon enough Baylor and Missouri will sort things out.
  7. UConn (12-1).  12-1 and rolling.  UConn has improving Seton Hall and up-and-down Rutgers this week.
  8. Michigan State (13-2).  Win over Indiana was big.  So far, only two losses are to North Carolina and Duke.
  9. Indiana (13-1).  Only loss was to MSU–at MSU.  Wins over Kentucky and Ohio State are very nice.
  10. Ohio State (13-2).  Loss to Kansas short-handed and lost to Indiana (just like Kentucky did).  Some nice wins too.
  11. Georgetown (12-1).  Watch out  for the Hoyas–young players that are starting to get on a roll.
  12. Kansas (10-3).  Kansas could go up and they could go down.  The feeling is that they are not staying right here though.
  13. UNLV (15-2).  Impressive wins over UNC and Illinois.  No shame in losing to Wisconsin or Wichita State.
  14. Louisville (12-2).  Two losses in a row–even to Georgetown and Kentucky–cause a drop in the standings.  This is about right for the Cards.
  15. Harvard (12-1).  Only loss is to UConn.  The teams behind them cannot say that–all have at least one head-scratcher.
  16. Murray State (14-0).  Likely to be the last team to get a loss.  It’s going to take one heck of an upset.
  17. Marquette (12-2).  Gets the nod here by virtue of beating Wisconsin head-to-head.  Had “one of those games” against Vanderbilt.
  18. Wisconsin (12-3).  Loss to Iowa is a perplexing.  Wisconsin was on a mini-roll.
  19. Mississippi State (13-2).  Had a chance to really climb, but fell to still-undefeated Butler.  Only game this week is Arkansas.
  20. Florida (10-3).  Losses to Syracuse and Ohio State were reasonable.  Rutgers?  Not so much.
  21. Virginia (12-1).  If they can get to 14-1, things will look better.  LSU beat Marquette.  Miami will give them a game.
  22. Michigan (12-2).  If they can get to 14-2, they will leapfrog Virginia and others.  That would require beating Indiana and Wisconsin!
  23. Creighton (11-2).  Hard to figure–suffered an upset loss, but then rebounded with an upset win over Wichita State.  Parity.
  24. San Diego State (12-2).  Not challenging itself right now.  Hard not to win.
  25. Kansas State (11-1).  They have Kansas and Missouri this week.  Tough week.
  26. Gonzaga (11-2).  Only losses were to Michigan State and Illinois.  Win over Xavier looked better than it does now.
  27. Seton Hall (12-2).  Losses to Syracuse and Northwestern.  #4 RPI so far.
  28. Virginia Tech (11-3).  Two wins over Oklahoma State, plus they gave Syracuse their best test so far this year.
  29. Purdue (12-3).  Realistically, could and should be higher.  A tough January will allow Purdue to prove same.
  30. Stanford (12-2).  Only losses were to Syracuse and Butler.  This team will only get better too.

Tell us what you think.  How would you differ?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
02 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 2, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 2, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (15-0)  Still rolling.  #1 in the country and just picked up a win in Chicago over DePaul.

2. North Carolina (13-2)  The Tar Heels are still winding their way through a weak part of the schedule.

3. Duke (12-1)  Temple and Georgia Tech this week.  The OOC is almost over.

4. Virginia (12-1)  Things are looking good for the Cavs.  12-1, with conference play on the horizon.

5. Virginia Tech (11-3)  Great win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Wake Forest looms this weekend.

6. North Carolina State (10-4) 4-0 since losing to Syracuse.  One more OOC to plod through before the conference games start.

7. Maryland (9-3) 6 wins in a row, with Cornell up next.

8. Florida State (8-5)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  Lost to Princeton is a serious blow.

9. Pittsburgh (11-4)  Another loss.  Wheels are starting to fall off here.

10. Wake Forest (9-4)  Record is nice, but the level of opponents is just not there.

11. Miami (8-4)  The Hurricanes need to do some damage in early conference play.

12. Georgia Tech (7-6) The wheels have fallen off.   This team is too good to be struggling at .500.

13. Clemson (8-6)  13th, but a lot of room to move up.  Clemson may be better than a few teams ahead of them.

14. Boston College (5-8)  Still in the cellar.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
01 Jan 2012

The Penn State Coaching Search: Really?

Anyone else getting tired of the Penn State head coaching rumors?  After all, the University trustees fired Joe Paterno nearly two months ago!  In the interim, just about everyone has been suggested by the media, bloggers, and/or delusional Penn State fans as the next head coach.  A few coaches with current or former ACC experience have been part of the discussion too.  But, as the calendar turns to 2012, it appears that Bill O’Brien is the latest “favorite” to become the next head coach in State College.

Who?

You know.  Bill O’ Brien.  Of the New England Patriots.  Not ringing a bell?  Here is his biography and relationship to PSU:

O’Brien has no immediately apparent ties to PSU and has no head coaching experience.

He does have extensive college experience, however, which has become something of a rarity among reported Nittany Lions candidates. He’s coached at somewhat nearby Brown and Maryland, plus Duke and Georgia Tech — the latter stint included being Chan Gailey’s assistant head coach for one year.

For Penn State fans, this would have to be a major disappointment.  The right-hand-man to Chan Gailey.  For one year.  Ugh.

Even worse, just take a look at all the coaches that were previously speculated, rumored, projected, or merely hoped for as the next coach:

  1. Urban Meyer (link)
  2. Tom Bradley (link)
  3. Al Golden (link)
  4. Mike London (link)
  5. Kevin Sumlin (link)
  6. Pat Fitzgerald (link)
  7. Kirk Ferentz  (link)
  8. Dan Mullen (link).  Deemed a favorite on November 29, 2011.
  9. Chris Petersen (link)
  10. Greg Schiano (link)
  11. Jon Gruden (link)
  12. Tom Clements (link)
  13. David Shaw (link)
  14. Tim Murphy (link)
  15. Tony Dungy (link)
  16. Mike Munchak (link).  Deemed a favorite on December 26, 2011.
  17. Jay Paterno (link)
  18. Darren Perry  (link)
  19. Kyle Whittingham (link)
  20. Mark Richt (link)
  21. Larry Johnson, Sr. (link)
  22. Bo Pelini (link)
  23. Brian Norwood (link)
  24. Mario Cristobal (link)
  25. Nick Saban (link)
  26. Eric Mangini (link)
  27. Bob Stoops (link)
  28. Bill O’Brien (link)

Again, while there are some absurd names above , there are also some very unimpressive names.  Nevertheless, you don’t need Wikipedia to know who 90% of them are.  Bill O’ Brien?  Not a name by any stretch.

And this is not personal to Mr. O’Brien.  Frankly, is it even fair for someone’s coaching debut to be at this current version of Penn State?  The Nittany Lions should be looking at someone with college head coaching experience from an AQ program that can adjust to Penn State’s unique situation.  Someone who knows what it takes to be a successful college coach, but is going to have to step up just to adapt to the challenge of dealing with the post-Paterno, post-scandal, PSU world.   That will be challenging enough.  Having it be your first head coaching job is just insane.

Moreover, the Patriots coaching tree has not exactly been successful.  Of the coaches that have left recently, all have failed in their first head coaching gig.  Romeo Crennel?  Fired.  Charlies Weis?  Fired.  Josh McDaniels?  Fired.  Eric Mangini?  Fired.  Not sure this is a tree worth picking these days.

Maybe O’ Brien can pull it off.  Nothing is impossible. But for the neighboring ACC schools that compete for recruits with Penn State, relying on “nothing is impossible” is just fine.

Posted by acaffrey in Uncategorized
01 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: December 31, 2011

The last day of 2011 basketball games went very well for the ACC, as it won all three games.

Leading the way was Virginia Tech defeating Oklahoma State, 67-61.  If this matchup sounds familiar, it is.  The Hokies defeated Oklahoma State in the consolation game of the NIT Season Tip-Off in New York City.  This time, Virginia Tech traveled to Stillwater to defeat the Cowboys.  Although this is not a great Oklahoma State team (7-6), this is an important win for the Hokies, who seem to perennially be on the Big Dance Bubble.  With the win, Virginia Tech moves to 11-3.  Dorenzo Hudson led Virginia Tech with 18 points.  The Hokies begin conference play next Saturday by traveling to Wake Forest.

North Carolina State improved to 10-4 with its 82-55 win over West Carolina.  All five starters for the Wolfpack finished in double-figures in scoring, led by CJ Williams’ 21 points.  Richard Howell added 14 rebounds.  That’s four straight wins for NC State since losing to #1 Syracuse in early December.  They get Delaware State on Wednesday before their January 8th ACC opener against Maryland.

And Maryland improved to 9-3 by edging pesky Samford, 75-63.  It was the Terrell Stoglin show for Maryland, as he led the team with 24 points.  ESPN’s recap added:

Maryland (9-3) has won six straight and finished the month of December undefeated — the Terrapins’ last loss coming Nov. 29.

It was the ninth time in 12 games that Stoglin, the Atlantic Coast Conference’s leading scorer, scored 20 points or more. He hit six 3-pointers, a career best, for the second game in a row. Maryland was 9 of 17 (52.9 percent) beyond the arc.

Indeed, the Terps were only 3-3 at the end of November and looking to match their football team in terms of disappointment.  Maryland hosts struggling Cornell (4-8) on Tuesday as the final tune-up for its opener against NC State.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
31 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Final 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the final 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Clemson, Virginia Tech, and future member Pittsburgh.  So far, the Confidential is 3-1, correctly predicting the results on all but the Wake Forest game.

On January 3rd, the Sugar Bowl will feature Virginia Tech (11-2) and Michigan (10-2).  This game will be a battle between the explosive running attack of the Wolverines and the stingy rushing defense of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was able to bottle up Georgia Tech earlier in the year.  However, Michigan was able to move the ball against a good Nebraska defense.  Neither team had an extraordinarily difficult schedule.  The Hokies will be playing without their kicker, which might make a difference if this comes down to a low-scoring game.  Giving the Hokies defense this much time to prepare is the difference.   Prediction: Virginia Tech 21-Michigan 16.

On January 4th, the Orange Bowl will put ACC Champion Clemson (10-3) against Big East Champion West Virginia (9-3). Both of these teams had disappointing seasons for conference champions.  West Virginia certainly wishes it could redo a few of its games, especially the blowout loss to 5-7 Syracuse.  Clemson had that perplexing blowout loss to North Carolina State.  In losing to these teams, both foes showed that they can be shutdown completely.  At the same time, Clemson showed that it could beat tough teams, as demonstrated by wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  West Virginia played LSU tough for a spell, but really lacks that quality win.  Prediction: Clemson 35 – West Virginia 27. 

Last, but certainly least, future ACC member Pittsburgh takes its 6-6 record into Birmingham to face 7-5 SMU in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Pittsburgh has been in a state of coaching flux.  SMU was able to keep June Jones from wandering away.  Maybe Pitt can win this one to stick it to former coach Todd Graham, but the Confidential just does not see it.  Prediction: SMU 24- Pittsburgh 20.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
30 Dec 2011

ACC Basketball Recap: December 29, 2011

December 29 was a tough night for the ACC, as two of its five teams in action suffered defeats.

Boston College lost to Harvard at home, 67-46.  That Boston College lost was not surprising, as Harvard is 11-1 on the year now and ranked in the top 25.  What is disappointing is that, according to CBS, it was “the fourth straight season that Harvard has beaten Boston College on the Eagles’ home court.”  That is how far things have fallen for the Eagles.  Losing to Harvard is part of a trend, not an anomaly.  With the loss, Boston College drops to 5-8 on the season.

Georgia Tech lost to Fordham, 72-66.   If there is a good news, it is that Georgia Tech did not lose at home.  Still, this is a Fordham team that is now 6-6 and has already lost to Monmouth and Lehigh.  There is no reason for an ACC school to lose a game like this.  With the loss, the Yellow Jackets drop to a disappointing 7-6.  Jason Morris came off the bench to lead Georgia Tech with 17 points.

Wake Forest had some serious trouble with Yale, before ultimately winning 72-71.  Actually, at one point, Wake Forest had a 19 point lead over the visitors.  And Wake Forest never trailed in the game.  Nevertheless, Yale rallied to close the gap during the second half to make for some antacid moments down the stretch.  With the loss, Yale drops to a respectable 8-3.  With the win, Wake Forest improves to 9-4.  CJ Harris led the Demon Deacons with 23 points.

North Carolina State also improved to 9-4 with its 87-81 victory over visiting Campbell.  Lorenzo Brown led the Wolfpack with 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists.  Richard Howell had 17 points and 17 rebounds.  Yes, that is not a misprint…. 17 rebounds.  In fact, North Carolina State outrebounded Campbell 40-22.  They also went an impressive 28 for 31 from the free throw line.  Only Campbell’s hot shooting–50.9% from the field and 64.3% from three-point range–kept this game close.

Finally, #5 North Carolina improved to 12-2 by defeating overmatched Elon, 100-62.  No surprises here.  The Tar Heels held Elon to 33.3% shooting, outrebounded them 57-31, had a 25-5 free throw attempt advantage, and only committed 8 fouls en route to a blowout win.  The usual suspects did the early damage, as Tyler Zeller had 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Harrison Barnes added 18 points.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Middle 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the middle 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.  Not to get cocky, but the Confidential is 2 for 2 so far, having predicted Missouri to defeat North Carolina by 11 (actual margin 17) and North Carolina State to defeat Louisville by 4 (actual margin 7).  While tonight will feature the final game of the first three, it is time to move onto the next three–the games of December 30 and 31.

On December 30, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) will travel to Nashville to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) in the Music City Bowl.  As the .500 records suggest, neither team does a particularly outstanding job at anything.  Mississippi State is currently favored by 6.5 points, as perhaps the SEC pedigree is dictating Vegas.  After all, their losses were to stud teams LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The problem is that their best win was against Louisiana Tech.  In contrast, Wake Forest stumbled to a season-opening loss at Syracuse in overtime (who was 5-2 at one point this year), but otherwise lost only to bowl teams.  And Wake Forest did beat Florida State and North Carolina State.  Edge to Wake Forest.  Prediction: Wake Forest 23-Mississippi State 21.

On December 31, Georgia Tech (8-4) faces off against Utah (7-5) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.  You know what you are going to get from the Yellow Jackets.  About 300 yards of rushing and maybe 150 yards of passing.  Meanwhile, Utah has been outstanding against the run–giving up only 98 yards per game on the ground.  That is 8th in the nation.  Plus, the Utes will have several weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech attack–something most teams do not get week-to-week.  But the bigger question is whether Utah can move the ball against Georgia Tech.  If Utah’s defense does what it can do, it will not need to score much to win.  Prediction: Utah 20 – Georgia Tech 14. 

On December 31, the final ACC game during the calendar year 2011 will involve Virginia (8-4) playing Auburn (7-5) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia.  Auburn has had its offensive woes this year as it transitions out of the Cam Newton era.  To be sure, they have to do that in the ever-difficult SEC.  Meanwhile, Virginia was only able to score 14 points in its final two games of the season against Florida State and Virginia Tech.  This has all the makings of a defensive struggle.  Maybe The Confidential is just a little too fond of Mike London.  This may be a case of having the ACC-Goggles on.  Prediction: Virginia 24-Auburn 14.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,

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