The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the tag “ACC”

29 Nov 2012
2 Comments

The College Expansion Game… is it Risk or is it Monopoly?

Everyone talks about college football as if it was a game of Risk.  Delaney and the Big 10 have the blue armies and are moving 10 of them to Kamchatka.  Slive and the SEC have the red armies, and will respond by trying to take Egypt.  Empire creation at its best.  Of course, some of those folks then turn around and say that the Big 10 and SEC are not competing against each other.  Huh–what Risk game involves cooperation?  The goal is to be the last one standing.  In any event, it is sad that college sports is no longer like Monopoly.

Yes, in the old days, college sports was like Monopoly.  The NCAA had the Monopoly of all the properties.  The value to a conference was driven not by the properties (i.e. the individual schools), but what could be done by acquiring all the similarly colored properties (i.e. forming conferences).  The Big 10 was the Dark Blues, with Michigan and Ohio State.  The Pac-12 was the Green properties.  No matter who played in the Rose Bowl, it was special.  Some conferences benefited by location–the Oranges and Reds have a little extra value because you might get sent to St. Charles Place and have to run them.  This is the equivalent to the Big East having the major metropolitan areas in basketball.  Or the SEC having the advantage of the key Southern, football-crazy areas.  Notably the game of Monopoly made the colored properties adjacent.  Indeed, being nearby your neighbors is valuable to a cohesive conference (notwithstanding the development of serious rivalries, of course).  Other than Notre Dame-USC, is there any rivalry that does not involve geographic proximity?  No.

Now, it’s all about a brand.  You might be able to make more money combining Boardwalk and Park Place, but Boardwalk would know its valuable and not want to be dragged down by Park Place.  Conferences are trying to build houses on Boardwalk and Marvin Gardens.  It works because the people paying are only focusing on the relative worth of the properties they are landing on… i.e. Boardwalk is a better property than Marvin Gardens.  The people paying do not realize that pairing Boardwalk with Park Place is more profitable than just Boardwalk alone.  Fans of conferences want to break off pieces of other conferences.  Fans of the Big 10 are drooling over North Carolina, forgetting that part of what makes North Carolina great is its rivalries with Duke, North Carolina State, and Virginia.  Sure, it’s a great school–but you cannot fabricate sports rivalries.  And you cannot just create a trophy and make it a rivalry.

The Confidential hopes that someday, the powers-that-be recognize that the real value in conferences was when they were geographically appropriate.  Perhaps they can figure out how to allow the revenues to be apportioned as per the current conferences, but go back to allowing schools to primarily play their neighbors.  More Penn State-Pittsburgh, and less Penn State-Iowa or Pittsburgh-Georgia Tech.

About the only thing we know is that, as of today, the Big East has Baltic Avenue.  Oh, and Connecticut Avenue.  And they had to mortgage Vermont Ave. to pay rent.  The ACC seems like the railroads–nice to have & pretty well spread out, but not generating enough money to keep up.  The SEC is now the Dark Blues–making plenty of money, and winning football and basketball titles regularly.  Or maybe the Big 10 is the Dark Blues.  It sure seems like the Big Ten Network is the “Chance” card sending someone to Boardwalk to make them wealthier every time it comes up.  And Rutgers just landed on Free Parking–from rags to riches on one roll of the dice.

In your game of College Sports/Expansion Monopoly… who is who?  Feel free to share your opinion.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , ,
28 Nov 2012
2 Comments

Louisville to ACC, According to Sources

As an update to yesterday’s report, ESPN is now reporting that the ACC voted to add Louisville.  If true, this is a great move for many reasons, such as:

  • It likely makes Florida State happy and shows a break away from the North Carolina/Virginia monopoly on decisions (whether real or perceived).
  • Louisville has strong (pun intended) football and basketball programs.  Rick Pitino joins Coach K, Roy Williams, and Jim Boeheim in the ACC.  Heck, maybe Jim Boeheim will even say that he likes this move?
  • Louisville is improving academically.  Probably.  Hopefully.  Maybe.  Doubtfully.  Who cares?  This is not just about academics anymore.
  • It likely makes Florida State happy.
  • Importantly, Louisville was desired by the Big XII, whereas UConn was not.  There is more urgency to add a team needed by the Big XII.  UConn should be there if/when the ACC needs to expand again.
  • All the other reasons mentioned in the ESPN article.  Indeed, that article almost looks like the ACC wrote it, doesn’t it?  ESPN cares about its investment in the ACC.
  • It likely makes Florida State happy.

West Virginia fans will not be couch burning mad over this, but they certainly will not be couch burning happy.  Perhaps will see some ottomans lit on fire due to the hypocrisy of rejecting WVU because of academics, but then taking Louisville.

The Confidential feels sorry for Cincinnati, UConn, USF, and to a lesser extent Navy.  These schools submitted applications to the ACC, but were not accepted.  Yet.  Again, conference realignment is far from over.  So these schools should avoid despair.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2012
3 Comments

Possible ACC Expansion Vote on Wednesday

David Glenn of the ACC Sports Journal is reporting that the ACC will hold an expansion vote tomorrow.  As most are aware, an expansion vote requires 75% approval.  According to the report, five schools have expressed an interest: Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Navy, and South Florida.  Of these, Louisville has the best chance of being accepted, according to Glenn.

This does not mean that Louisville will get voted in.  Mark Blaudschun has tweeted that Louisville is currently one vote short.  The speculation is that North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, and/or Wake Forest are opposed to the move.  This means, of course, that the schools that care about football–Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Miami–are in favor of the move.  One would think Boston College would be in favor of the move too, as it would prevent neighboring UConn from immediately joining.

While the Confidential understands that Virginia and North Carolina may be apprehensive about allowing a school of Louisville’s academic pedigree to join, the Confidential thinks that the better course of action is to invest in Louisville to make the adjustments to improve academically.  Associating with the ACC will improve Louisville’s reputation far more than any school’s reputation will be hurt.  And Louisville is an extremely competitive basketball program–picture Duke-Louisville and North Carolina-Louisville conference matchups.  With the ability to take football to the next level, this is really a home run for the ACC.

Some may say that this will cause Virginia to leave.  But if Virginia leaves over this, Virginia was looking for a reason to leave.  This move will stabilize the ACC (as much as that is possible in the current landscape), which should be in the interests of all ACC institutions.  Making Florida State happy is, you know, probably a good idea.

So if the ACC adds Louisville, then this will be a happy day for everyone south of Storrs.  As the musical chairs continues, there is no reason to think that this would be the last move.  UConn will end up somewhere eventually, especially if there are further defections from the ACC.

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Conference Realignment, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Nov 2012
7 Comments

Navy to the ACC?

There are some Internet rumors out there about Navy being in consideration for the ACC.  Interesting.

First, if adding Navy means that Notre Dame joins the ACC full-time, then it is game over and you have to do it. Adding Notre Dame would legitimize the ACC in a way that no other addition could.

Second, if not, Navy could be added with the same program as Notre Dame.  Perhaps both teams would play 5 games.  Perhaps both teams would be willing to play 6 games.  After all, the matchup between the two schools would now be a conference game.  For scheduling purposes, it would make some sense to have two teams doing so.

Of course, the problem would be figuring out how to coordinate divisions.  With Notre Dame and Navy both appealing to northern teams, it would be hard to divide geographically.  Ideally, you’d want to separate Notre Dame and Navy.  But then they would have to play extra games to face each other.  It gets challenging.

An interesting move would be to add Navy and Army for football only if ND is willing to go “all in.” Picture this:

USA Pod: Syracuse, Army, ND, Boston College

NE Pod: Pitt, Navy, Virginia, Virginia Tech

NC Pod: NC, NC State, Duke, Wake Forest

SE Pod: Miami, FSU, Clemson, Georgia Tech

The USA Pod and NE Pod always play each other, forming the NORTH division.  The NC and SE Pod always play each other, forming the SOUTH division.  The best teams in the North and South play in the CCG.  Each team in the North would also play one team from the NC and SE pods each.  Each team in the South would also play one team each from the USA and NE pods.  The goal would be to match teams by level as much as possible.

With 9 opponents set, this would only leave Notre Dame three OOC games, presumably USC, a Big 10 school, and another school.  But if ND were agreeable to that, so be it.

Obviously, there would be some issues.  ND, Virginia Tech, and FSU are good anchors.  North Carolina is a weak anchor for the NC pod.  Although they were 8-4 this year.  Meanwhile, having Clemson, Miami, and Georgia Tech in one pod is pretty strong.  But, again, the pods are not actual divisions–just for  scheduling purposes.  It remains a North/South split.  On balance, the North/South split is not that bad.

In fact, just allowing the geography to play itself out makes more sense than trying to manipulate balance.  This year, Florida State is playing 6-6 Georgia Tech.  It would be better to be playing an 10-2 team from the North–regardless of difficulty of schedule in getting there.  For strength of schedule purposes, it benefits a Florida State or Clemson to play the toughest schedule possible.  Of course, THIS year, Notre Dame would be the best team, with a 10-2 record overall.

In any event, that remains a bit of a pipe dream on many levels.  For now, the discussion is UConn, Louisville, and Navy.  Unfortunately, there is no real discussion about Cincinnati right now.

Time will tell as to which, if any, is chosen.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , ,
27 Nov 2012
3 Comments

College Fooball Head Coach Firings: Really?

Stepping aside from the ACC for a moment, the Confidential cannot help but wonder what the heck is going on with college football head coach firings?  Then again, as the Big Ten becomes the Pied Piper to the rest of college football’s money-obsessed rats, there is no reason to be shocked by two of the most surprising coaching firings in recent history.

First, the most offensive of all firings is the dismissal of Jon Embree at Colorado.  Look, the Confidential routinely noted that the Buffaloes were the worst BCS-level program.  Nothing that happened on the field gives the fans any reason for optimism–the team was outclassed week after week.  But you just cannot fire a coach after two seasons.  Indeed, as ESPN’s Ted Miller noted, the school really could not articulate a basis for firing him.  Frankly, firing a football coach after two years should be a terminable offense for whomever hired the coach.  If the athletic director hired a guy that could not last more than two years, the athletic director is even more incompetent than the head coach.  Short of a scandal of some sort, it just does not make long-term sense.  Can anyone name another head coach fired based on record after only two seasons?

Even worse, Colorado did this to an African-American man and a former Colorado player.  In light of the latter, he should have had a little more latitude.  As it relates to race, this is just yet another example of an NCAA head coach being given a shorter time to turn a program around than comparable white coaches.  Sure, Jon Embree was 4-21.  But Greg Schiano was 3-20 after two seasons.  Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz was 4-19 after two seasons.  It is statistically more likely, Embree would have been a Greg Robinson, who was only 5-18 at Syracuse after two seasons and ended up winning only 5 more games.   But Colorado will never know whether Embree was a Ferentz or a Robinson.  Colorado and the NCAA should be ashamed.  The Confidential is loathe to suggest racism, but to not give a head coach at least three years is simply absurd.  Really, the Confidential does not see why any African-American family would allow their son to go to Colorado after its treatment of Embree.  And good luck to the next coach explaining to kids and their families that they can be sure that he will be the Buffaloes’ head coach for the full four or five years that the kid is in Colorado.

Second, Auburn fired head coach Gene Chizik a mere two years after winning a National Championship.  Granted, many Auburn fans never liked the hire.  After all, Chizik was only 5-19 at Iowa State.  Notably, unlike Colorado with Embree, Iowa State was going to give Chizik more time to turn around the program.  Instead, he turned Auburn around.  This culminated with winning it all in 2010.  To be sure, that 2010 team was special.  It had to have significant talent beyond merely Cam Newton–a QB alone can only carry a team so far.  Chizik and his staff were able to go 14-0 against an SEC schedule.  Regardless of how much talent you have, to go 14-0 suggests some significant ability to coach the game of football.  After all, how many programs have gone undefeated?

In fairness to Auburn, however, the recruitment of Newton and other issues were becoming a bit of a scandal for Auburn.  This is perhaps more important than mere record.  Even if Chizik was bowl-bound this year, a program has to avoid sanctions.  So the firing is justifiable from that standpoint–certainly more so than with Embree.  Again, however, the issue might hurt Auburn in recruiting unless it can land a home run with its new coach.

Finally, the Confidential would be remiss in failing to observe that North Carolina State and Purdue fired head coaches after winning games and being bowl-eligible.  For Purdue, Danny Hope got Purdue to two straight bowl games for the first time in several years, according to ESPN, but was not allowed to even coach the team in the bowl game.  He took over a team that had gone 4-8 the prior year, never finished with a worse record, and did better than that in three seasons.  Not good enough?  For North Carolina State, it is frustrating to beat a great team every year, but also lose head-scratchers.  Still, you have to be really careful before firing a head coach that has taken you to three straight bowl games, like Tom O’Brien had done.   Fans and programs need to be careful before dispatching a coach because of “mediocrity.”

Indeed, fans of programs disappointed in the average records often complain that the new guy “cannot do any worse,” as if mediocrity is bottoming-out.  Syracuse fans thought that the .500ish records of Paul Pasqualoni were too much to swallow.  And then they hired the aforementioned Robinson, who showed that things can get worse.  Much worse.  Perhaps the best example is Southern Mississippi, who forced head coach Jeff Bower to resign after 14 straight winning seasons and six straight bowl appearances.  Fans and boosters were unhappy with the mediocrity.  The end result?  Southern Mississippi continued to go to bowl games under head coach Larry Fedora, but then watched him abandon the program for North Carolina before the 2012 season.  Unlike Bower, Fedora was not interested in being a lifer at Southern Mississippi.  In 2012, the team went 0-12.  Enjoy THAT fans and boosters.  Mediocrity can get worse.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
26 Nov 2012

ACC Football Rankings: November 26, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of November 26, 2012:

1.  Florida State (10-2)–The Seminoles can complain about the computers, the conference, and everything else… but they just do not get it done on the field.  Again and again.  Still, the win over Clemson makes them the class of the ACC.

2. Clemson (10-2)–The SEC is all about defense.  And South Carolina’s defense did to Clemson what no team did all year–keep them under 25 points.  So Clemson remains firmly in the #2 spot here.

3. North Carolina (8-4)–The Tar Heels won a shoot out against Maryland.  Not sure how impressive it is to give up 38 points to this Maryland team, but a win is a win.

4. Syracuse (7-5)–The Orange defeated Temple, behind yet another solid rushing/passing game.  Interestingly, still alive for a Big East co-championship if Louisville beats Rutgers.

5. Miami (7-5)–The Hurricanes are far from back, but 7-5 is a good start.  Indeed, this would have been their first appearance in a CCG, but for the looming sanctions.  Y

6. North Carolina State (7-5)–The Wolfpack won!  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that 7-5 was not good enough to keep Tom O’Brien on the payroll.  The worse news is that Debbie Yow is in charge of finding the replacement.

7. Georgia Tech (6-6)–At 6-6, the Yellow Jackets “earned” the right to play Florida State in the ACC Conference Championship Game.  This is why you need a North/South split.  Let the northern schools pillow fight themselves to a point where some team can win 8 games.

8. Duke (6-6)–No doubt about it… going to a bowl is great for Duke.  But there is also no dispute that Duke is backing in.  When is the last time they actually won?  Answer: two Saturdays before Halloween.  Wow.

9. Pittsburgh (5-6)–The Panthers rallied to defeat Rutgers in fine fashion, 27-6.  If Pitt can beat South Florida, they’ll be bowl eligible.

10. Virginia Tech (6-6)–The Hokies also make it a bowl, albeit riding wins over Boston College and Virginia to get there.  Better than missing out though.

11. Wake Forest (5-7)—The Demon Deacons, who the Confidential thought had the best chance of the ACC bottom feeders to make a bowl, missed out.  Garden-variety mediocrity here.  At best.

12. Virginia (4-8)–Virginia was a tough team to figure out and the end of the season was more of the same.  Good enough to beat almost anyone, bad enough to lose to almost anyone.  They did a lot of latter too.  Onto 2013.

13. Maryland (4-8)–At 4-8, Maryland deserves a lot of credit for improving and “overcoming” challenges.  Then again, they are going to be an appetizer for the Big 10 football dinner each week.

14. Boston College (2-10)–At least a new coach will give Boston College fans a reason to be a little optimistic.  Beyond that… not sure what else can be said.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
24 Nov 2012
22 Comments

ACC Expansion Thoughts: 16 teams?

The message boards are heating up over the idea of the ACC adding Louisville, Cincinnati, and UConn to become the first 16-team conference.  Indeed, this was a legitimate enough “rumor” that the well-respected Frank the Tank blog (notwithstanding the Confidential’s recent criticism of some of the comments there), included this quote:

One interesting example of Twitter having fans on edge was a Tweet from Brian Miller, a Tallahassee Democrat reporter that said that the ACC wouldn’t even make a choice between Louisville and UConn, but rather add both of them along with Cincinnati* to create a 16-team conference.  By the time that Tweet spread like wildfire, Miller had removed it from his timeline.  Time will tell whether that was removed because it couldn’t be backed up or the information was too sensitive for the reporter’s source to put it out there for public consumption immediately.  The ACC may very well have the most incentive to grow to 16 first to create a perception of strength in numbers (even if it might not look like the most financially lucrative move).  [Full article here.]

At first glance, the idea of expanding to 16 teams seems counter-intuitive because it would mean 16 teams dividing an already too-small pot for 14 teams.  But there is plenty to discuss about it.  Here are the Confidentials thoughts (albeit with zero predictions).

The recent addition of Maryland to the Big 10 is a benefit to Fox.  While ESPN has a piece of the Big 10, as the Big Ten Network grows, the risk of losing more inventory also grows.  And Fox’s partnership with the Big 10 is one that includes joint ownership of the BTN.  While much is said about ESPN and Fox being cooperative in preventing a third major sports network developing, it cannot be forgotten that ESPN and Fox are not simply dividing the world for mutual benefit.  At some point, they are competitors.  In the same vein, the SEC and Big 10 both covet North Carolina–they may be cooperating to some extent, but they both ultimately have a similar goal.  In any event, if the Big 10 were to take two more ACC schools or if the Big XII were to take a few (or more) ACC schools, then the ACC’s ability to survive would be in jeopardy.  If ESPN profits from the ACC deal, they stand to lose that profit AND suffer the embarrassment of losing ground to Fox.  The Confidential believes that if ESPN wants to have a presence beyond merely the SEC in football and the remnants of the Big East in basketball, it needs to preserve the ACC.  If it wants to do that, it will have to pony up the $$$ to keep the ACC alive.  You know, like it did with the Big XII.

However, ESPN cannot just go around re-negotiating its contracts to pay more money.  It cannot show that little deference to its contracts or otherwise play favorites within the conference scheme.  The loss of Maryland is a one-team change in the conference.  If the ACC were to backfill with UConn or Louisville, ESPN would have to voluntarily renegotiate its contract.  This just cannot happen.

Instead, what needs to happen is that the ACC take on three new teams… such as Louisville, Cincinnati, and UConn.  If that happens, ESPN can renegotiate the TV deal.  It can help narrow the differences with the other conferences, such that the ACC seems less likely to be broken up.  Perhaps it would even be enough to make Florida State happy.  If so, the Big XII would be without effective replacements from the ACC to get to 12 teams.

Now, if the Big XII truly does want 12 teams, suddenly the best options on the table are the Big East schools–with Louisville and Cincinnati perhaps being the best targets, as they would be a nice fit with West Virginia.  Plus, Fox and the Big XII could see taking Louisville and Cincinnati a good measure to block the ACC from getting the revenue increase it needs from ESPN to start evening the balance.  This would make it more likely to eventually land Florida State and Cincinnati.  Indeed, imagine if Cincinnati starts having more TV revenue than Clemson and Florida State.  The pressure on the ACC would be substantial.  It could start to crumble.

On the other hand, the ACC could be pleased to see the Big XII take Louisville and Cincinnati because it would mean less spots available for a future raid of the ACC.  Does the Big XII want Florida State badly enough to go to 14 or 16 teams?  In addition, while Louisville to the ACC makes sense to make Florida State happy, UConn has the location and basketball pedigree to make the hoops schools happy.  In fact, the Big XII does not even need to TAKE Louisville, it just needs to have Louisville sufficiently convinced that the Big XII would take them to defer making a decision.  If Cincinnati is told they are the 16th team, their decision is dependent on both Louisville and UConn accepting.  If UConn accepts first, then it just comes down to whether Louisville is willing to sign on with the ACC or not.  The ACC could end up with UConn, without running the risk of angering Florida State.  After all, the decision was Louisville’s.  It chose the Big XII.

On yet another hand, if you are the Big XII… why care about Louisville and Cincinnati?  The Big XII’s best move would be to take USF with Louisville.  Tampa is a GREAT place for a school.  If the Big 10 can gamble on making Rutgers relevant, why couldn’t the Big XII gamble on USF becoming a clear 4th Florida school?  With Miami down, this is the time to strike.  Of course, USF couldn’t be having a worse year to struggle on the field.  But, from a demographics and recruiting standpoint, this has to be a worthy add.  Or the Big XII could use USF as the partner to try to woo Florida State.  If Clemson is unwilling to abandon the ACC, perhaps USF could do so.  Actually, an argument could be made that the Big XII expanding into Florida by taking BOTH USF and UCF makes some sense.  You get inroads on the Orlando/Tampa markets.  Two HUGE schools.  Again, if the Big 10 is willing to gamble on schools the Big XII.

With more hands than Secretariat, the Confidential has one more.  If the ACC goes to 16 teams, is there room for Notre Dame?  Suddenly, the Fighting Irish are looking at being the 17th school–an unwieldy number.  The ACC may have to move beyond the Fighting Irish at that point.  Maybe drop them down to 4 games per season.  Play each team once every 4 years.  Or this rumor could be a play to get Notre Dame to consider taking Cincinnati’s spot.  Having already sold the alums on the ACC partially, maybe there is a better ability to just bite the bullet and go “all in.”  It’s better than dropping down to the Atlantic-10 or being in the Big XII or Big 10.  For the ACC, if Notre Dame is not going to join now, it is never going to join.  If/when the big money conferences do start poaching the ACC schools, Notre Dame will lose interest.  It’s going to get worse before it gets better.  With ND, perhaps the ACC becomes safe.  Without ND, who knows?

Another hand… if the ACC was smart, it would just negotiate with ESPN to allow Florida State to now keep their Tier III rights.  Allow ND to join the ACC but also keep their Tier III rights.  ND can put theirs on NBC.  Florida State can do whatever it wants with theirs.  Keeping Florida State makes the Southern ACC schools like Clemson and Ga Tech happy.  Getting ND makes everyone happy.  Although ND and FSU would get some extra $$$, is there any doubt that those two schools are, by far, the biggest Kings that the ACC will ever have?  It’s the difference between football relevance and irrelevance.  In 2020’s, the ACC can negotiate something better for Clemson and Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech.  For now, Florida State and Notre Dame can keep those schools in the picture so that their prominence remains stable.

Of course, Occam’s Razor comes into play.  Perhaps the ACC just decided that adding three schools is a good idea.  Or perhaps the rumor is just a rumor.  Who knows anymore?

So, no predictions here… just thoughts.  Feel free to share where you think this is going.

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , ,
22 Nov 2012
2 Comments

ACC Football Predictions for Thanksgiving Weekend 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Not sure whether there should be analysis of Louisville or UConn…. ha ha ha.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 6-2, improving the overall record to a respectable 78-30.  On to the week 13 predictions:

Friday, November 23, 2012

Syracuse (6-5) @ Temple (4-6), 11:00 a.m.   You’ll have to stop your Black Friday shopping a bit early to catch this one.  Syracuse showed that its football is definitely on the upswing with a win on the road against Missouri, who was itself desperate for a win.  The Orange are banged up and this is Temple’s final game of the season.  An upset would not be shocking, but the Confidential will lean toward the ‘Cuse keeping the momentum going.  Prediction: Syracuse 33, Temple 21.

Saturday November 24, 2012

Georgia Tech (6-5) @ #3 Georgia (10-1), 12:00 p.m.  Maybe rivalry week allows teams to throw out the records.  But it is hard to really feel like Georgia Tech can win this game.  They have been playing a bit better lately.  Still, this one has a chance to get ugly.  Prediction: Georgia 30, Georgia Tech 17.

Virginia (4-7) @ Virginia Tech (5-6), 12:00 p.m.  As much as the Hokies have struggled all year, they are one win away from a bowl.  Virginia is an enigma still–no idea which version of the team will show up from week-to-week.  The Hokies have home field advantage, which has to be worth something.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 17.

#21 Rutgers (9-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-6), 12:00 p.m.  This has been a great week for Rutgers and a 10th win would just be the icing on the cake.  Pitt must win to have a chance at a bowl.  No matter what happens, Rutgers gets to play Louisville for the BCS bowl berth next week, so perhaps the Scarlet Knights will come out flat.  Upset special here.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Rutgers 20.

Miami (6-5) @ Duke (6-5), 12:30 p.m.  The Blue Devils have been coasting.  Miami has been another hard team to figure out.  With the Hurricanes pulling the plug on the post-season, it will be interesting to see whether they show up.  If Al Golden can get them motivated, Miami should win.  For Duke, this game presents the opportunity to regain some much needed momentum.  Prediction: Miami 31 , Duke 28.

Maryland (4-7) @ North Carolina (7-4), 3:00 p.m.  The only thing more surprising than Maryland leaving the ACC is the lack of anyone really caring.  Somewhat odd, really.  The Terps should have rivalries after all these years, but seemingly do not.  For Randy Edsall, a win here would be a great way to celebrate the offseason.  For the Tar Heels, bowl ineligibility means that this is their last chance to play football for several months.  Prediction: North Carolina 30, Maryland 10.

Boston College (2-9) @ North Carolina State (6-5), 3:00 p.m.  Well, another version of the Tom O’Brien Bowl.  Give credit to Boston College, they have played tough two weeks in a row.  A coaching change is inevitable, but the team has not quit at all.  An upset to send the coaching staff off would be a great way to finish the season.  The Wolfpack could really use another win though.  If they can’t beat BC…. well, do you really deserve a bowl?  Prediction: North Carolina State 24, Boston College 20.

Vanderbilt (7-4) @ Wake Forest (5-6), 3:30 p.m.  The Demon Deacons are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  Vanderbilt has its bowl game locked up.  Another reason for Vandy to be comfortable is that they are coming off the high of beating Tennessee.  Badly.  At the same time, Wake Forest has been as unimpressive as possible in getting to 5 wins.  It’s just hard to envision Wake pulling this one out.  Prediction: Vanderbilt 24, Wake Forest 17.

#6 Florida (10-1) @ #10 Florida State (10-1), 3:30 p.m.  The game of the week–two top 10 teams battling to see who gets to 10-1.  Florida has now been impressive in his recent cupcake wins.  Florida State has been only slightly better.  Neither team is peaking right now.  If the Seminoles want to be considered “back,” this is a game that they have to win.  In a pure homerism pick, the Confidential thinks it will happen.  Prediction: Florida State 28, Florida 21.

#13 South Carolina (9-2) @ #12 Clemson (10-1), 7:00 p.m.  The ACC regular season finale ends with a bang, as Clemson looks to avenge its disappointing loss to the Gamecocks last year.  This Clemson team has been scoring at will of late.  Unfortunately, last week the Tigers allowed North Carolina State to pretty much do the same thing.  South Carolina has to be licking its chops.  Homerism prevails again here.  Prediction: Clemson 35, South Carolina 24.

Idle: None

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Nov 2012

ACC Football Rankings: November 19, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of November 19, 2012:

1.  Florida State (10-1)–The Seminoles did not destroy Maryland, but beat them convincingly enough, 41-14.  Hard not to be giddy about the upcoming contest against the Gators.

2. Clemson (10-1)–Clemson gave up 48 points.  And won.  You get the feeling that the Tigers could give up 70 points to West Virginia again and actually win.  Huge game against South Carolina this week.

3. North Carolina (7-4)–Duke should be here, but they seem to have gotten fat and happy after beating the Tar Heels to become bowl eligible.  Meanwhile, North Carolina keeps on winning.

4. Georgia Tech (6-5)–The Yellow Jackets have gone from losing to a directional Tennessee college to the ACC Championship Game.  Unless they pull a huge upset against Georgia, they’ll do so with a 6-6 record.

5. Syracuse (6-5)–An argument could me made that Syracuse is #3 here.  They played USC close, and have only lost to bowl eligible schools (Northwestern, Rutgers, Cincy, and Minnesota).  Meanwhile, they beat Mizzou on the road and are the only team to have beaten Louisville.  So much for being basketball-only.

6. Duke (6-5)–The Blue Devils are coasting to their bowl.  Not finishing strong at all.

7. Miami (6-5)–At 6-5, the Hurricanes are bowl eligible, but wisely foregoing the post-season while the NCAA continues how hard to come down on them.  Ohio State wishes they had that level of foresight.

8. North Carolina State (6-5)–North Carolina State moved the ball against Clemson, but allowed 60+ points.  Still, looking at a bowl after the Boston College game.

9. Wake Forest (5-6)–The Demon Deacons have to beat 7-4 Vanderbilt to get to a bowl.  Not looking good.

10. Virginia Tech (5-6)–The Hokies can still get to a bowl if they can beat rival Virginia.  The performance against Boston College was not exactly a confidence builder.

11. Pittsburgh (4-6)—The Panthers still could get to a bowl.  The Big East refs may prefer that Pitt beat Rutgers too.

12. Virginia (4-7)–Virginia had a chance to make this week a game for a bowl… but fell short against rival North Carolina.  Anything can happen in this week’s game against the Hokies.

13. Maryland (4-7)–At 4-7, Maryland has still done better than expected.  Not sure how many 4 win seasons they will have in the Big Ten though.

14. Boston College (2-9)–At 2-9, Boston College fans are more interested in the coaching search than this week’s game.  BTW, they are playing North Carolina State.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Nov 2012
9 Comments

Maryland is Leaving–What it Means

Unless you were living under a rock today, you heard the news that Maryland is leaving the ACC for the Big 10.  Here is the Confidential’s latest take:

1.  Congratulations to the Big 10.

The Big 10 now has 14 teams (assuming the Rutgers rumors are accurate).  Without a doubt, the Big 10 will use these geographical additions to make its universities the wealthiest in the NCAA on a TV revenue basis.  To read Frank the Tank’s commentariat, however, one would think that THIS is the goal of all University athletic programs.  So what if Notre Dame or Alabama win the national title in football, the Big 10 schools get $30M/year?  Revenue has become a statistic not too unlike home runs in baseball or touchdowns in football.  It is a new way of keeping score.  And in this new way of keeping score, the Big 10 will dominate.

However, this new way of keeping score is misdirected.  Nobody cares that Minnesota brings in more money than Florida.  People care that Florida had two national championships in basketball and one in football during the past decade.  The counter-argument, of course, is that lacking money prevents a school from being competitive.  It is not lack of money that keeps Indiana out of the Rose Bowl and Northwestern out of March Madness.  It is not poverty that keeps Ole Miss from going to Sugar Bowls and Auburn from Final Fours.  At the very least, it is not a lack of TV revenue.  A terrible TV contract did not keep UConn from winning national titles.  A terrible TV contract did not keep Boise State from being relevant in football.  Having less money than Illinois is not why Florida State has fallen off the map (and is also irrelevant to how they got back on).  Money only goes so far in making your program interesting on the field.  So, while Maryland will now be able to spend spend spend, it will not alone make the Terps on-court, on-field product any better.

And the correlation is not as direct as one thinks.  After all, the TV revenue is nice, but Ohio State will always have more money.  Michigan will always have more money.  The football elite is elite for a reason.  Having more money than Memphis and Temple is nice, but that does not get you to a nice bowl when you go 2-7 in conference play.

2. Maryland and Rutgers, Part II

Maryland and Rutgers just made decisions that allow them to leapfrog their neighbors in revenue.  And, notwithstanding the caveats above, these schools certainly could use the influx of cash to become better.  More likely, however, is that a kid in New Jersey considering Rutgers now has an even better reason to consider Michigan.  Rutgers and Maryland will receive checks, but a part of those checks is the reality that the elite teams in the Big 10 now have a better chance to take kids from the mid-Atlantic.  Meanwhile, those same kids in that region could still go to Virginia to play a much greater percentage of games within driving distance.  And so on.

3. The ACC’s Future.

As the Big East is proving, it is hard to kill a conference.  But the ACC’s future as a legitimate conference depends on making sound moves in the near future.  The Confidential remains adamant that it be the football schools, rather than the basketball schools, that “get to decide” this next entrant.  The basketball schools are not losing much with Maryland.  This is an opportunity to add the Louisville football program, Charlie Strong, and a nice Southern compliment to Georgia Tech, Clemson, etc.  But, as also noted previously, if Florida State wants Wofford, Swofford needs to go for it.  The basketball schools will be far more relevant if they can maintain the ACC, rather than push the football schools out the door.

As for the football schools, they need to give serious pause before jumping ship.  The Big 10 just took two middling football programs with the confidence that their markets and the injection of revenue will make them stronger football programs.  The same thing is just as likely with Pitt, Syracuse, and whoever team 14 becomes.  The revenue jump for Maryland will not be that much different than the revenue jump from the Big East to the ACC.  If money is so important, then it is just as important for the new additions to the ACC.  Meanwhile, Pitt just landed a top 25 recruit.  Syracuse just beat Missouri on the road to become bowl eligible.  And if the football schools demand Louisville and get it, now you are looking at another top 25 team with a great coach joining the mix.  Not so sure that losing Maryland matters at all.  And football may be on the upswing with these additions.

Oh, and Louisville’s basketball is not too shabby either.  Win/win.

4.  Maryland Leaving Does Not Move the SB Nation Needle Too Much Over the Weekend

As of Sunday, the Confidential could not help but note the lack of discussion on the ACC’s SB Nation representatives until today.  This news was very hot as of Saturday, but only Cardiac Hill (Pitt), TNIIAM (Syracuse), and BC Interruption (Boston College) were really discussing it.  Pretty shocking really.

5.  One More Thing

If Maryland’s donors, such as Mr. Under Armour, are willing to pay towards the exit fee (whatever it is), where were they when Maryland was allegedly in financial dire straits?

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,

Post Navigation

← Older Entries
Newer Entries →