The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the tag “basketball”

Seminole Territory: ACC Meetings and Andrew Wiggins

The ACC ‘s annual meetings began in earnest yesterday and there are several topics of interest for Florida State fans:

1.  Bowl tie-ins for football:  We should learn the bowl lineup for the post BCS era this week.  Here’s hoping the addition of Notre Dame results in an appealing slate.  After the first day of meetings ESPN’s Brett Murphy has mentioned the potential for the Russell Athletic Bowl to host the #2 ACC team.  Most FSU fans would be disappointed with this result.

2. ACC Network:  Can the ACC really generate enough interest at ESPN to support another college oriented network?  If the answer is yes, then how much money will it bring to the conference?  FSU fans are anxious to fill the conference money gap as soon as possible.

3. Basketball Tournament Sites:  Will the ACC  consider a geographic rotation of sites for the ACC basketball tournament to better represent the geographic foot print of the conference?  Can the new ACC programs influence the other non Carolina schools to become less Carolina centric?  The selection of future sites for the ACC tournament could shed some light on the future direction of the conference.

Other potential topics of interest:

4. Geographic Division Alignment:  it’s time to make North and South divisions to create meaningful geographic rivalries.  Surely, FSU was able to work a deal “under the table” to enhance their ACC slate by adding Georgia Tech to their division in exchange for the Grant of Rights.  I can’t imagine the Seminoles signing themselves over for a 15 year commitment to the conference without some assurance of immediate benefit for the football program.

FSU fans are mostly tired of hearing about Swofford’s endless amount of promises for an improved revenue and an enhanced league.  It would be nice if the ACC could start to flex it’s muscle regarding the topics above so we can all sleep better at night.

Andrew Wiggins

The most disappointing part of Andrew Wiggins’ recruitment is also the most endearing.  He does not like the spotlight.  Unfortunately, there is no “inside information” available for fans to debate and dispute.  FSU fans are hoping for the best.  This could become the biggest day in the modern era of Florida State basketball.

Ranking the ACC-B1G Challenge Games

The ACC-B1G Challenge games were announced a few days ago.  After looking to see who your school played, the next thought was probably to check out whether any other games were intriguing.  And there are several.  So let’s just go ahead and rank them for interest.

Gold Medal Games:

1.  North Carolina @ Michigan State.  Tom Izzo v Roy Williams. That’s a lot of Final Four appearances.  MSU always reloads, and North Carolina never stays quiet for long.  This one should be a battle in Breslin.

2.  Michigan @ Duke.  Both teams had good seasons in 2012-2013, with Michigan exceeding expectations by making a run to the title game.  Both have a lot of production to replace.  Will be a great game though.

3.  Indiana @ Syracuse.  A rematch of a March Madness game that went for the Orange.  A lot of new faces in 2013-2014, but a lot of star power will be back and new to both campuses.

4.  Wisconsin @ Virginia.  The first one to 40 wins?  Don’t expect a lot of points in this one.  But this is still a darn good matchup.

Silver Medal Games:

5.  Notre Dame @ Iowa.  Any time ANY Fighting Irish team comes to town, it is a big deal.  A nice regional battle too.

6.  Penn State @ Pittsburgh.  A battle for Pennsylvania.  This one should be close too–Penn State has experience coming back.

7.  Miami @ Nebraska.  The Hurricanes invested in their program by hiring a dynamic coach.  Nebraska is investing in its facilities.  A better game on the gridiron, but one to keep an eye on anyway.

8.  Florida State @ Minnesota.  Both teams fell short of expectations last year.  A lot of new faces.

Bronze Medal Games:

9.  Northwestern @ North Carolina State.  This game might be underrated at #9.  But until the Wildcats make a Big Dance, it is hard to take them seriously on the hardcourt.

10. Illinois @ Georgia Tech.  Still waiting for that Georgia Tech team to turn the corner.  Illinois fans may feel the same way.

11.  Boston College @ Purdue.  Not exactly the old Patriots-Colts battles featuring Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  It is what it is.

12. Maryland @ Ohio State.  Big 10 fans will be rooting for Ohio State.  ACC fans will be rooting for Ohio State.  Not much of a “challenge.”

Participation Ribbons:

Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest are left out of the challenge.  We’ll give them participation ribbons even though they are not, obviously, participating.

ACC-Big 10 Challenge Schedule

Listening to ESPN Radio on the way home from work and heard that the schedule for next season’s ACC-Big 10 Challenge had been released.

Here’s the lineup:

Tuesday, December 3

Florida State at Minnesota

Illinois at Georgia Tech

Indiana at Syracuse

Michigan at Duke

Notre Dame at Iowa

Penn State at Pittsburgh

Wednesday, December 4

Boston College at Purdue

Maryland at Ohio State

Miami, FL at Nebraska

North Carolina at Michigan State

Northwestern at North Carolina State

Wisconsin at Virginia

Admittedly NC State does not have the most attractive draw.  This is only right after the debacle of 2012/13; however I do believe the coming year will see a less star-laden but more focused Pack. Meaning, of course, this game is winnable, especially at Raleigh.

However there are some great matchups here.  Duke/Michigan and UNC/Michigan State, of course, but also the Battle of Pennsylvania, Pitt/Penn State; Syracuse/Indiana looks huge; and the first Challenge appearance of the Irish, Notre Dame/Iowa.

There is even a game in which I might end up rooting for the B1G team; er, go Buckeyes?

B1G TV Revenue, Popsicles, and Trophies

Big 10 fans were scrambling around yesterday applauding the announcement that the conference would be distributing $25.7 this year.  It is unclear why the St. Louis Dispatch was issuing the report.  After all, the Big 10 did not want Missouri.  But it is what it is.

However, before Big 10 fans start looking for a popsicle to suck, it should be noted that the TV revenue contribution to each school decreased.  ESPN reported this regarding the Big 10 distributions:

The league’s fiscal year doesn’t end until June 30, but according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Stu Durando, conference payouts to member schools should reach another record high this year. Figures provided by Illinois show that Big Ten distributions are expected to be $25.7 million per school, including $7.6 million from the Big Ten Network.

Last year, schools got $24.6 million from the league, including $8.1 million from BTN. In 2011, the number was $22.6 million per school and $7.9 million from BTN. The Big Ten continues to distribute more revenue to its member schools than any other conference, which explains why Maryland was eager to dump decades of tradition in the ACC to jump on board.

People scoffed at the Big Ten Network when it first began, but Durando writes that the venture will have resulted in $42.5 million per full league member over the past six years. The figure has decreased this year for the first time, but that’s likely due to an increased slice of the pie given to Nebraska, which does not receive a full share of league revenue until 2017.

So there you go.  Stu Durando calls it a “record” distribution, even though the to-school distribution is expected to be lower than either 2012 or 2011.  Oh wait, there is an excuse.  The lower distribution is because Nebraska is being given a larger slice of the pie.  And Nebraska will not even get a full share until 2017!  So apparently Nebraska’s mere increase in share caused a decrease in payouts per school.

Read more…

Notes from Recent Preseason Polls

On Monday, I noticed two offseason polls of interest: the first one was a post Spring football poll for 2013 by ESPN’s  Mark Schlabach  and the second poll was for college basketball on CBS Sportsline.

Here’s a quick breakdown of each:

Football Top 25

ACC (3) 4. Louisville, 12. Clemson, 14. Florida State

Big 10 (5)

Big 12 (5)

SEC (6)

Pac 12 (4)

Notre Dame was ranked #10.

I’m excited about the GOR signed last week, but I’m embarrassed by the lack of solid football programs in the conference.  The potential is there-I’m speaking about Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State-for the ACC to consistently have at least five teams in the Top 25.

Basketball Top 26

On the other hand, the new ACC received a ton of respect in the Sportline Poll.  Four ACC teams were ranked in the Top 11 and seven were ranked overall.

ACC (7) Louisville, Duke, UNC, Syracuse in Top 11

BIG 10 (5)

BIG 12 (1)

Pac 12 (2)

SEC (3)

Florida State and Louisville were the only ACC schools to appear in both (football and basketball) polls.  FSU will certainly move up in basketball if Andrew Wiggins picks the Seminoles in the next two weeks.

Strength in Basketball Helpful for ACC Network?

Most media pundits have pointed to the direct correlation between football performance and television money.  However, few mention the fact that conference network money is driven by “quality” inventory beyond football.  I believe the number of solid basketball programs with diehard fan bases will make the ACC Network viable for ESPN and profitable for all of the teams that recently made a commitment to the conference.  How many people are going to be watching the SEC network? (FYI: I will not watch.)  All of the notable football games are covered by the national networks.  Are people going to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt in basketball?  Meanwhile, the Big 10 has a similar advantage to the ACC with several viable non-football programs to provide year round inventory and interest.

2014 College Basketball: Overview of the Previews

It’s apparently NEVER too early to talk college basketball.  All of the pundits have their early–very early–predictions for 2013-2014 started up.  Even though it is not even clear who is staying and who is leaving (players have until April 28, 2013, to declare for the NBA), these projections are being made.  So we must analyze.

First, the Confidential is a huge fan of Jay Bilas.  Most of his opinions are fair and make a lot of sense.  Not all of them.  But most of them.  Here is the early Bilas index for 2013-2014, truncated to 25, rather than 68:

  1. Kentucky
  2. Louisville
  3. Duke
  4. Michigan State

Hmmm… four of the best college basketball coaches.  Not exactly reaching here.

Any other ACC schools in the mix?  Yep: #6 is North Carolina, #11 is Syracuse, #13 is Notre Dame, and #23 is Virginia.  Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina State did not make the list….but would likely be in his top 68, had he done one.

Second, if the start of the 2013-2014 is far away, how about the 2014 selection Sunday?  But that did not stop Bracketologist Joe Lunardi from taking an early look at the field.  He has Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Arizona as the four #1 seeds.  For the ACC schools:

  • Duke is a #1 seed
  • Syracuse and Louisville are seeded at #2
  • North Carolina is a #3 seed
  • Virginia is a #4 seed
  • Notre Dame is a #6 seed

That, all in all, is not TOO different from the Bilas index.  And, although Lunardi goes out to 68 teams, no other ACC team cracks a top 68 where 30 teams are given automatic bids.  Joe also needs to update things to reflect that Notre Dame, Pitt, and Syracuse are part of the ACC.  But we’ll cut him some slack since the change is not implemented yet.

Third, the Big Lead has a top 25.  The top 4 teams are–surprise–Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Ohio State.  North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, and Notre Dame–and no others (except Louisville, obviously)–crack the top 25.

So there you have it.  There is a consensus that Kentucky, Duke, and Michigan State are the top 3 teams heading into 2013-2014.  For the ACC, five teams (plus Louisville) will be ranked.  Hard to disagree with any of those projections.

Can you?

NBA Draft & The ACC

The April 16, 2013, deadline has come and gone, meaning that anyone who decides to go pro between now and April 28, 2013, will make that decision as a point-of-no-return.  That will not stop folks from doing so, but the consequences will be a bit sharper.  At this point, those eligible for the NBA draft are what they are.  There are a number of ACC players that will be among the players drafted.  Who are they?

First of all, who are the early entries from ACC schools so far?  CBS Sportsline has a nice list going.  Here are the players from the ACC schools on the list:

  • Steven Adams, Pitt
  • Lorenzo Brown, NC State
  • Reggie Bullock, North Carolina
  • Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
  • Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
  • Alex Len, Maryland
  • CJ Leslie, NC State

Second, where will these kids go?  Well, here is where Chad Ford slots these guys, and other ACC draft-eligibles, in terms of overall NBA talent:

  • Len, #8
  • Carter-Williams, #10
  • Dieng, #17
  • Mason Plumlee, Duke, #18
  • Adams, #26
  • Brown, #42
  • Bullock, #45
  • Russ Smith, Louisville, #53
  • Leslie, #61
  • James Southerland, Syracuse, #81
  • Richard Howell, NC State, #82
  • Ryan Kelly, Duke, #88
  • Michael Snaer, Florida State, #92

A few other players to note.  These guys are all still undecided: Shane Larkin of Miami is at #30; Rasheed Sulaimon of Duke is at #48; and CJ Fair of Syracuse is at 71.  The decision should be tough for Larkin, but fairly easy for Fair.  You want to be pretty certain you get a first round contract if you are going to leave.

 

 

Louisville players considering the NBA

Louisville head basketball coach Rick Pitino woke up Monday morning to the news of his election into the basketball Hall of Fame. That night he coached his Cardinals to their third National Championship in school history while making history himself as being the only coach to win national championships at multiple schools (Kentucky in 1996). It’s truly a time of celebration here in Louisville. It has been 27 years since Denny Crum coached his team, lead by freshman Pervis Ellison and senior Milt Wagner, to Louisville second National Championship back in 1986. But as the fans continue their celebration, several U of L players now have an important decision to make, stay in school or enter the NBA draft. Unlike in past years, they now only have about a week to make that life changing decision.

Chane Behanan came to U of L as a McDonald’s All-American. His 15 pts. and 12 reb. performance against Michigan had me wondering if would be back next season or if he would be tempted to go pro. It seems by the quickness that he made his decision to come back for his junior year that it was an easy decision for him after all. While it seems that he has the strength and skills of an NBA prospect, his 6′-6” frame is small for a pro power forward.

Peyton Siva is a senior point guard. Despite his elite speed and passing abilities, his drawbacks of not possessing a reliable jump shot and being turnover prone probably will prevent him from being drafted. While he is considered a top 30 senior he is barely considered a top 100 overall prospect in the upcoming draft, according to reports. Coach Pitino has often compared him to Florida head coach Billy Donovan so you may one day see him roaming the sidelines as a head coach.

Russ Smith’s father was quoted shortly after the game Monday night as to saying that his son was headed for the NBA draft. The timing seems right coming off of a national championship and while people are still talking about his game. However coach Pitino did his due diligence and applied for NBA assessments and shared those reports with Russ. According to the latest local Pitino interviews, he says his All Big East junior guard is now 60/40 coming back for his senior year. Russ has come along way in his three years at Louisville. After his freshman season he was rumored to be following Assistant coach Steve Masiello when he took the head coaching job at Manhattan College. He stayed and worked hard in the offseason on his game and in the weight room. He made a name for himself by scoring 30+ points against the Anthony Davis led Kentucky Wildcats in his sophomore season. He improved his game further during his junior season and began to alter his reputation as an erratic ball-hog to being more of a controlled chaos type of player. He has many attributes that the NBA is looking for such as his outstanding instincts at both ends of the court, excellent speed, ball handling skills and he is a terrific transition player. His unpredictableness and aggressive style of play makes him an entertaining player. He needs to work on his decision-making, ball distribution and jump shot or his 6′ 160 lbs frame may keep him a second draft pick.

Gorgui Dieng seems to be the most ready NBA prospect from this NC team. He is also the one who would most rather come back and graduate before going pro. The 6’11” 245 lbs junior center with a 7’6” wingspan hails from Kebemer, Senegal and grew up playing soccer. He learned to speak English in about two months, education is a high priority in his family. Despite playing basketball for only a few years, arriving in America in 2009, he has matured quickly and still has tremendous potential. His most notable attributes are for being a shot blocker, he is U of L single season blocks leader, and a tremendous passer from the post. He has an effective hook shot, turn around jumper and he finishes well. Already being 23 years old, this may be the best time for him to go pro. The mock drafts has him as the 17th pick.

With or without Smith and/or Dieng, Louisville is poised to make a run at a repeat with a top 10 recruiting class coming in to complement their returning players. If Kevin Ware is unable to make a comeback next season however, Russ Smith could provide a critical experience to its group of incoming freshman guards. I want to thank everyone for giving me this opportunity to talk about one of my passions, University of Louisville sports.

N-C-A-Absurdity

The college basketball season just ended.  You knew that from your bracket.  Heck, even Ned Flanders would think a bracket is too much fun to be immoral.  But the season just ended two days ago.  And guess when the deadline is for college underclassmen to decide whether to turn pro?  Next freakin’ Tuesday, according to Syracuse.com, who laid this all out for Syracuse fans wondering what CJ Fair is going to do.

This is the timeline:

  • April 8, 2013: Championship Game
  • April 10, 2013: The deadline to apply for an assessment from the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee
  • April 15, 2013: The deadline to receive assessment from the NBA Undergraduate Advisory Committee
  • April 16, 2013: NCAA Early Entry Withdrawal Deadline

That’s right.  The underclassmen in the Final Four have exactly one week to decide that they are not going to make themselves eligible for the draft.  The most important decision of their respective lives, and the NCAA gives kids as little as one week to decide.  Even worse, a kid like CJ Fair can receive his “assessment” on April 15 and get a whole 24 hours to decide.  24 hours.

An NCAA apologist might say that a kid could still decide to go pro between April 16 and April 28.  However, anyone choosing to go pro during that period would give up their NCAA eligibility.  There is no chance to return to college at that point.

It gets better.  The purpose of moving up the dates to crunch this timeline was…. get ready for this… to benefit the student-athlete.  That’s right, the NCAA is actually telling the world, with a straight face presumably, that they tightened the deadlines to help kids.  The Syracuse.com article stated as follows: “The NCAA moved this date up in 2012 ‘to help keep student-athletes focused on academics in the spring term and to give coaches a better idea of their roster for the coming year before the recruiting period is closed,’ according to the organization.”  Right.  The latter part of the sentence is true, but not the former.  This has nothing to do with helping kids.

If the NCAA cared about the players, it would allow them to go all the way through the draft, see where they are drafted, and then decide whether to come back to college.  Indeed, as long as the player did not sign a contract, why should they be deemed to have lost their amateur status?  Larry Bird was drafted by the Boston Celtics in 1978.  He played for Indiana State in the 1978-1979 season.  He then went pro for the 1979-1980 season, and the rest is history.  Despite the Boston Celtics holding his rights, amateur athletics did not come to a halt.  Things worked out quite well, actually.

Surely, you say, it would be improper for any current college athlete to be drafted and stay in college, right?  Well, not if you are a baseball player.  The MLB draft is set up to allow the drafting of three categories of players:

  • High school players, if they have graduated from high school and have not yet attended college or junior college;
  • College players, from four-year colleges who have either completed their junior or senior years or are at least 21 years old; and
  • Junior college players, regardless of how many years of school they have completed

A high school player that is drafted, but chooses not to sign gets to go play college baseball.  The NCAA will let him play.  For a while, as the college baseball player will not be eligible again for the MLB draft until he turns 21 or completes his junior season.  So, somehow, the NCAA allows drafted, but unsigned, baseball players to compete.  It works the same way in hockey.

So, why is there one set of rules for baseball and hockey, but a much more onerous set of rules for basketball and football?  If you are an optimist, you think it is because the NCAA makes so much money with football and basketball, that they care a lot more about keeping the amateur ranks clean.  But, if you think about it, that cannot be.  If it was only about ratings and attendance, keeping the best basketball and football players around would be even more profitable.  If you are a pessimist, you might suspect racism.  Right?  The more “white” the sport, the more likely the NCAA is to allow you to be drafted and return to college nonetheless.  At the very least, with a largely African-American sport such as basketball, the NCAA is more than willing to force kids to make a decision, one that will either be smart or terrible, in one week.  Every time a basketball player leaves early, is not drafted, and is never heard from again… it is a warning sign to others that might consider leaving early.  The NCAA will gladly ruin someone’s life to protect their cash cow.  Especially when they are ruining a young African-American male’s life.  Yes, this is a pessimistic view, all right.

Hey… if you can find a rationale for having different rules for the different sports, feel free to share it.  The Confidential would love to hear why it must be different.

Whatever the reason, it is just one more example of just how absurd the NCAA is.  But you knew that already…

 

 

Update on ACC Revenue

CBS is reporting that the future addition of Notre Dame will have an immediate impact on revenue.  Even with just a 5-game football schedule and basketball games, Notre Dame will contribute in excess of $1M additional to the television revenue for each school.  While this is not “catching up to the Big 10” money, the gap between the conferences is not as wide as reported.  This may be why there are lots of rumors regarding schools leaving, but few actually doing so.

That same article also reports as follows regarding an ACC Network:

The ACC is currently considering a 24-hour sports channel with ESPN, which is gathering information and will return to the league with an assessment. If ESPN makes an offer the ACC likes, plans for a channel might commence. The league is evaluating whether a channel makes the most business sense.

Look, who knows if an ACC Network would be successful?  What is clear, however, is that the Big 10 Network is successful. This is where things are headed.  If there is not going to be an ACC Network, then ACC teams might very well end up on the Big 10 Network, to ESPN’s loss.

Perhaps ESPN would benefit from some sort of joint network between the SEC and the ACC, where both channels are a package that is available from the Northeast down to Florida and West to Texas.  That’s a lot of territory to bundle the packages together.  The price could be determined by media market.  The SEC channel could be 90 cents a month in Texas, while the ACC channel could be 10 cents a month there.  But in North Carolina, it could be the inverse.  The extra revenue provided by the bundling would help get both channels more market saturation.

Then again, the Confidential is hardly a financial or television tycoon.  Perhaps ESPN is moving towards jai alai, as that will be the sport of the 22nd century.

What do you think?  ACC Network have ANY potential?

Post Navigation