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07 Aug 2016
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The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: North Carolina State

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For North Carolina State, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, NC State ended up with 7 regular season wins, bolstered by four easy out-of-conference games scheduled.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for NC State at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/1 Thu vs. William & Mary
9/10 Sat @ East Carolina
9/17 Sat vs. Old Dominion
10/1 Sat vs. *Wake Forest
10/8 Sat vs. Notre Dame
10/15 Sat @ *Clemson
10/22 Sat @ *Louisville
10/29 Sat vs. *Boston College
11/5 Sat vs. *Florida State
11/12 Sat @ *Syracuse
11/19 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida)
11/25 Fri @ *North Carolina

Very likely wins: William & Mary, Old Dominion, one of Boston College or Wake Forest

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, @ Clemson, Florida State

Verdict: Last year’s out-of-conference schedule for North Carolina State was pathetically easy.  This year, there is a slight uptick.  Of course, with the forced game against Notre Dame, it was the ACC, rather than the school, making the change.  At the same time, East Carolina will be a self-inflicted challenge.  Ask Virginia Tech.  So this is a definite increase in scheduling difficulty.  Within the conference, the Wolfpack have it very tough also, with road trips to North Carolina, Syracuse, and Louisville within the toss-up games.  With only six toss-ups, and three very likely losses, it is not hard to see NC State taking a step back from its 7 win season.  In fact, this much tougher schedule could mean a few steps back, including potentially missing a bowl.  The Confidential goes with an over-under at that mark–5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will NC State go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
02 Aug 2016
2 Comments

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Virginia

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Virginia, the over-under was set at 4.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Virginia ended up with 4 regular season wins, under an already-low number and enough to lead to a coaching change.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Virginia at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat vs. Richmond
9/10 Sat @ Oregon
9/17 Sat @ Connecticut
9/24 Sat vs. Central Michigan
10/1 Sat @ *Duke
10/15 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
10/22 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/29 Sat vs. *Louisville
11/5 Sat @ *Wake Forest
11/12 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida)
11/19 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
11/26 Sat @ *Virginia Tech

Very likely wins: Richmond, Central Michigan

Very likely losses: @ Oregon, @ Virginia Tech

Verdict: Virginia has an interesting schedule.  Avoiding Clemson, Florida State, and Notre Dame makes it softish in-conference.  Trips to Connecticut and Wake Forest make those games less winnable.  Hosting Pitt, UNC, Miami, and Louisville makes those games less automatically losable.  Trips to Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech will, or at least should be, very tough.  All in all, it is not hard to see Virginia winning anywhere from 3 to 8 games.  Still, it is tough to envision Virginia being likely to come out on the high side of that range.  So the Confidential will go with an over-under of 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Virginia go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
01 Aug 2016
2 Comments

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Florida State

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Florida State, the over-under was set at 10.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, FSU ended up with 10 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for the Seminoles at 9.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/5 Mon vs. Mississippi @ Orlando, FL
9/10 Sat vs. Charleston Southern
9/17 Sat @ *Louisville
9/24 Sat @ South Florida
10/1 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/8 Sat @ *Miami (Florida)
10/15 Sat vs. *Wake Forest
10/29 Sat vs. *Clemson
11/5 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/11 Fri vs. *Boston College
11/19 Sat @ *Syracuse
11/26 Sat vs. Florida

Very likely wins: Charleston Southern, South Florida, N.C., Wake Forest, NC State, BC, Syracuse

Very likely losses: None

Verdict: It is not hard to find a bunch of wins for Florida State.  It is also not hard to find some potential losses–Mississippi, @ Louisville, @ Miami, Clemson, and Florida.  Perhaps more potential losses than most recent years.  And last year the Seminoles came in under the 10.5 mark–with 10 regular season wins.  The Confidential thinks that it is unlikely that Florida State does worse than last year, but with 5 real tough games in there, a 9.5 over-under makes the most sense. Many will say “over,” but so be it.

What do you think?  Will FSU go over or under 9.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
03 Jul 2016

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Boston College

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Boston College, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, B.C. started out by out-scoring its opponents 100-3, and held tight with Florida State until suffering a QB injury.  After beating Northern Illinois, the Eagles would lose out.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Boston College at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
9/10 Sat vs. Massachusetts @ Foxboro, MA
9/17 Sat @ *Virginia Tech
9/24 Sat vs. Wagner
10/1 Sat vs. Buffalo
10/7 Fri vs. *Clemson
10/22 Sat vs. *Syracuse
10/29 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/5 Sat vs. *Louisville
11/11 Fri @ *Florida State
11/19 Sat vs. Connecticut
11/26 Sat @ *Wake Forest

Very likely wins: UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn (wow, weak OOC schedule this year for the Eagles)

Very likely losses: FSU, Clemson, @ Virginia Tech

Verdict: Unlike Syracuse, Boston College appears to be eschewing the over-scheduling curse.  Gone is Southern Cal–enter a Mac-tastic opponent in Buffalo, local foes UConn and UMass, and an FCS-tilt against Wagner.  This is a legitimate chance at 4 wins.  The conference slate it typically tough, with trips to Wake Forest and NC State making things a challenge.  But if B.C. can upset Georgia Tech week one at home, the Eagles will be well-positioned to go 2-6 in conference, yet find themselves a bowl bid even without a single upset.  This is what a rebuilding program MUST DO to regain relevance.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will BC go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
02 Jul 2016

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Miami

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Miami, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Miami ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Miami at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. Florida A&M
9/10 Sat vs. Florida Atlantic
9/17 Sat @ Appalachian State
10/1 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
10/8 Sat vs. *Florida State
10/15 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/20 Thu @ *Virginia Tech
10/29 Sat @ Notre Dame
11/5 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
11/12 Sat @ *Virginia
11/19 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/26 Sat vs. *Duke

Very likely wins: Florida Atlantic, @ App State

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Florida State

Verdict: Miami had a good season last year relative to outsider expectations, but it was not enough to save Al Golden’s job.  Moreover, the team seemed to improve without him.  Enter the Mark Richt era.  Some new coaches immediately improve teams, others take a season to adjust.  Who knows with Miami?  It is difficult to see many “very likely wins,” as even a trip to Appalachian State can be dangerous.  The lighter conference foes on the schedule (Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech) are all road games.  But there is not a game on the schedule that cannot be won–even FSU and Notre Dame–either.  This becomes a crap shoot.  Improvement is expected, but it might not yet result in more wins.  Or it might.  The Confidential goes with an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , , ,
17 Jun 2016

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Pitt

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Pitt, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Pitt ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Pitt at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/3/16: Villanova
  • 9/10/16: Penn State
  • 9/17/16: @ Oklahoma State
  • 9/24/16: @ North Carolina
  • 10/1/16: Marshall
  • 10/8/16: Georgia Tech
  • 10/15/16: @ Virginia
  • 10/27/16: Virginia Tech
  • 11/5/16: @ Miami
  • 11/12/16: @ Clemson
  • 11/19/16: Duke
  • 11/26/16: Syracuse

Very likely wins: Villanova, Marshall, Syracuse

Very likely losses: @ Oklahoma State, @ Clemson

Verdict: Pitt had a very good season last year, but the schedule is tougher in 2016.  Villanova will be a feisty FCS opponent (ask Syracuse), while Penn State returns to the schedule the following week creating a chance for a “look ahead” situation.  But you have to beat your FCS opponent and your non-P5 opponent (Marshall).  Meanwhile, Syracuse has not beaten Pitt in Pitt since… 2001… so that’s three wins.  Road trips to Oklahoma State and Clemson should be losses.  That leaves 7 middle-ground games.  Trips to Virginia, Miami,and North Carolina are far from certain losses, obviously.  Home games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech are all winnable, obviously.  Would losses in any of them be shocking though?  Nope.  With a tough OOC, we’ll leave Pitt where it was last year–straddling the 7-8 win mark.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
07 Jun 2016

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Louisville

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Louisville, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Louisville ended up with 7 regular season wins, with the losses to Houston and Pittsburgh being relative “surprises.”  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Louisville at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/1/16: Charlotte
  • 9/9/16: @ Syracuse
  • 9/17/16: Florida State
  • 9/24/16: @ Marshall
  • 10/1/16: @ Clemson
  • 10/14/16: Duke
  • 10/22/16: NC State
  • 10/29/16: @ Virginia
  • 11/5/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/12/16: Wake Forest
  • 11/17/16: @ Houston
  • 11/26/16: Kentucky

Very likely wins: Charlotte, Wake Forest, Kentucky

Very likely losses: Florida State, @ Clemson

Verdict: With OOC trips to Marshall and Houston, Louisville has scheduled outside of the P5 conferences, but challenged itself significantly.  Throw in trips to Syracuse, Boston College, and Virginia, and three “very likely home wins” become three very challenging road conference games.  Duke and NC State will not be pushovers from the home slate either.  A sweep of all seven of those games is not impossible, but realistically not likely either.  In fact, it is certainly plausible for two or three of those games to be losses.  All in all, this is looking like a tough year for Louisville compared to the expectations of the fan base.  It is hard to envision wins over Florida State and Clemson.  Even assuming significant success beyond those two games, that does not give much cushion in an improving conference.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Louisville go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
25 Feb 2016
2 Comments

Syracuse Dome Upgrades–Nearby Football Stadiums & Capacity

With Syracuse University pondering renovations to the Dome that may or may not involve a season of sports requiring relocation, it is interesting to consider the closest football venues and capacity.  As someone who attended a “home game” off-campus (Ithaca against Boston College) while the Dome was being constructed, it is certainly possible for CNYers to attend such games.  In any event, here are the capacities/distances of the nearby stadiums in New York:

  • Ralph Wilson Stadium–the Buffalo Bills’ stadium in Orchard Park seats approximately 72,000 (71,870)–2.5 hours from Syracuse;
  • Yankee Stadium–the New York Yankees’ baseball field in the Bronx converts to football and seats approximately 50,000–4.1 hours from Syracuse;
  • Mitchie Stadium–Army’s stadium at West Point seats 40,000–3.5 hours from Syracuse
  • UB Stadium–Buffalo’s stadium in Amherst, NY seats approximately 30,000 (29,031)–2.3 hours from Syracuse
  • Schoellkopf Field–Cornell’s stadium in Ithaca, NY seats approximately 25,000 (25,597)–1.1 hours from Syracuse

Given Syracuse’s attendance issues, it would not be ridiculous to think that Schoellkopf field would be appropriate for home games involving an FCS opponent and an OOC opponent from the MAC.

Mitchie Field is seldom discussed because it is farther away than the Buffalo area, but it is closer to New York City, without actually having to get into the city.  Playing Wake Forest or a lesser tier OOC school might be a good way to get exposure to Syracuse fans living in the corridor from Albany down.

There is no real reason to use UB’s stadium, other than just having no choice.  For an extra 4,000 seats, doubling the distance from CNY negates same.

The pro stadiums have a lot of intrigue relative to big-name opponents.  While some talk of Syracuse playing Pitt in Buffalo, that would essentially invite Panthers’ fans to attend.  It is unclear why such a Pitt-friendly venue would be chosen.  Better to play Pitt at Yankee Stadium and Boston College in Ralph Wilson stadium to allow Syracuse to have the maximum edge.  Unless the pro stadiums will charge less for fans in the stadium, providing a financial incentive, these “home games” could quickly become “road games.”

One other option, of course, is to do a traveling season that includes exposure outside of New York and hits recruiting areas.  If Jim Harbaugh can set up spring break practices in Florida, is there any reason why Syracuse could not play a “home game” in the Beltway to get some exposure there?  Or even in the Carolinas?  If New Jersey can be a site for a “home game” against Notre Dame, it is not much more of a leap to have a few home games through the ACC’s borders to get further exposure.  Syracuse versus Wake Forest in Jacksonville in front of 15,000 fans might have more value than having 18,000 people show up at a New York stadium.  Heck, given some attendance at Miami games, the Hurricanes would probably be jealous to see Syracuse-Wake Forest pull in 15,000 fans… ha ha ha.

The Confidential would do something like this for 2017 (which has a trip to LSU and a home game against CMU, as well as home games against Wake Forest, BC, Clemson, and Pitt):

  • FCS opponent–Schoellkopf Field
  • MAC opponent: Central Michigan–Schoellkopf Field
  • Wake Forest: Florida venue–Jacksonville, Tampa, Orlando, or Miami
  • BC: Schoellkopf Field (need to exorcise the demons of that last loss in Ithaca)
  • Clemson–Ralph Wilson Stadium
  • Pitt–Yankee Stadium

It probably makes sense to use the construction year to schedule a road OOC game with the home game to follow.  For example, a road game against Army or U.B. in 2017, with a home game to follow in some other year would allow another New York game.  Games against Temple (Pennsylvania), Ohio MAC schools (Ohio), Florida G5 schools (Florida), and other G5 schools could provide exposure elsewhere in exchange for a future home game in the newly renovated Dome.

In any event, there are lot of options.  What would be your ideal blend of six home games if the Dome was shut down for a year for renovations?

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , ,
15 Feb 2016
2 Comments

The Top 44 Football Players in Syracuse Football History

The legend of the number 44 and Syracuse is well-known to any fan that watches an ESPN game featuring Syracuse.  If you need more, see here.  In any event, with 44 such a crucial number for Orange fans, it only stands to reason that all lists involving Syracuse should be the “Top 44.”  And so it is.  Here are the top 44 Syracuse Orange football players–based on their college, rather than professional, accomplishments:

  1. Ernie Davis–the sole Heisman Trophy winner at Syracuse and the first African-American to win the award, as well as the second legendary #44.  Oh, and he was part of the 1959 National Championship team.
  2. Jim Brown–almost a #1 based on his dominance and status as the first legendary #44.
  3. Floyd Little–the third of the trio of #44 backs that dominated the 1950’s and 1960’s, Floyd Little cements his status by being a constant contributor to the program decades later.
  4. Don McPherson–of all the QBs in Syracuse history, McPherson was the one that went 11-0-1 and had Syracuse finish in the top 5.  That had not happened since the top 3 were on the field and has not happened since (1987 to present).
  5. Tim Green–this local phenom helped restore Syracuse by deciding to stay home and wear the Orange.  The Syracuse defense under Coach Dick MacPherson was stout and it began with Green and company.  45.5 sacks is still atop the Syracuse list.
  6. Donovan McNabb–two BCS bowl appearances and four years at starting QB have McNabb way up the list.  Next to McPherson, Syracuse accomplished much under McNabb, including some HUGE wins.
  7. Joe Morris–the Syracuse leaderboard still has Joe Morris at #1…. above all the legendary #44’s and others.
  8. Marvin Graves–2nd in all-time passing yardage and led Syracuse to consecutive 10-2 seasons.  A very, very good QB that gets overshadowed by McPherson and McNabb.
  9. Marvin Harrison–while Art Monk had a notable pro career rivaling Harrison and played in less pass-happy times, one cannot deny Harrison’s numbers atop of the Syracuse record charts.
  10. Dwight Freeney–while Green was tough, Freeney’s speed is unlike anything ever seen before or after.  He could dominate games and did.
  11. Walter Reyes
  12. Larry Czonka
  13. Art Monk
  14. Markus Paul
  15. Dan Conley
  16. Ted Gregory
  17. Ryan Nassib
  18. Donovin Darius
  19. Darryl Johnston
  20. Kevin Abrams
  21. Bill Hurley
  22. Jim Collins
  23. Anthony Smith
  24. Alec Lemon
  25. Tommy Myers
  26. Arthur Jones
  27. Chandler Jones
  28. Rob Moore
  29. Shelby Hill
  30. Qadry Ismail
  31. Quinton Spotwood
  32. Jim Ridlon
  33. Keith Bullock
  34. John Mackey
  35. Scott Schewedes
  36. David Bavaro
  37. Rob Drummond
  38. Kevin Mitchell
  39. Tony Romano
  40. Jim Ringo
  41. Terry Wooden
  42. Kevin Johnson
  43. Joe Alexander
  44. Vic Hanson

Obviously, there are more than one way to list 44 players…. so what do you think?  Did we miss anyone deserving–especially old and recent… seemed like a bias towards the early Carrier Dome era (1980-2000)?  Could have spent additional hours on this–making sure nobody was missed.  How about the rankings?   Is your top 10 different?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, Syracuse Top 44 and tagged , ,
04 Feb 2016
2 Comments

ACC Recruiting Recap

With another football letter of intent signing day passing by yesterday, the analysis begins.  The major outlets take their subjective weight given to players and look at how those players accumulated at schools.  If there was ever an example of “garbage-in, garbage-out,” it would be this task.  Nevertheless, throwing out all the subjectives, there is certainly some sort of correlation between “good recruiting classes” and results (except at Texas and Miami).  So here is what folks think of the 2016 football recruiting classes.

RIVALS

Here is the overall top ten listed at Rivals.  As you can see, Florida State and Clemson crack the top 25.

Rank School Total 5 Stars 4 Stars 3 Stars Avg Points
1
Alabama
 24 5 10 9 3.83 2885
2
Florida State
 25 1 18 4 3.72 2816
3
Ohio State
 24 2 15 7 3.79 2704
4
Michigan
 28 1 15 12 3.61 2603
5
Clemson
 22 3 10 6 3.59 2530
6
LSU
 23 0 15 6 3.57 2515
7
Mississippi
 24 2 10 12 3.58 2507
8
USC
 20 2 11 7 3.75 2429
9
Auburn
 21 2 11 6 3.62 2403
10
Georgia
 20 3 10 6 3.75 2387

As for all the ACC schools:

  • #2  Florida State-twitter seems to suggest a disappointment that this is not deemed the #1 class.  But the Seminoles would certainly prefer a national title over a recruiting rankings title.
  • #5 Clemson–in-state rival South Carolina was way down at #26.
  • #12 Notre Dame–between UCLA, Texas, and Florida makes sense.  Behind Mississippi does not.  And rival USC is a few spots up at #8, while Stanford is a few spots down at #18.
  • #22 Miami–Miami has never had trouble getting talent and this is a decent class for Mark Richt in just a few weeks.
  • #24 North Carolina–ahead of historical blue blood Nebraska, neighbor South Carolina, and current elite school Oregon.  Good things happening in Chapel Hill.
  • #30 Pittsburgh–Pitt has had good recruiting classes year after year–the benefit of being located in Pennsylvania, adjacted to Ohio, and next to both New Jersey and the D.C. Corridor.
  • #31 Duke–we are used to top classes in hoops, but the Blue Devils on-field success is translating into better football recruiting classes, including a class better than football stalwarts Wisconsin and Arkansas… and a top half class within the ACC.
  • #37 Louisville–a decent class, but Cards fans cannot like seeing Kentucky up at #28.  There is an SEC bias, to be sure, but who would have expected that?  Still, #3 in the Atlantic.
  • #43 NC State–squarely in the middle of the Atlantic at #4.  Ahead of Wake Forest, but behind Duke and UNC.  Ahead of Syracuse in the division, but behind Louisville.  Not good, not bad.
  • #49 Virginia Tech–as a ranking, this must be disappointing.  Houston, Northwestern, and Brigham Young should generally not out-recruit the Hokies.  Chalk it up to a new coach.
  • #57 Syracuse–being behind Washington State, Iowa State, and Indiana is ordinarily disappointing, but new coach Dino Babers worked some magic to get Syracuse above four other ACC schools in just a few weeks.
  • #62 Virginia–former coach Mike London was a good recruiter, and the coaching switch seemed to cost Virignia slightly.  Not much of a new coach bounce.  UCF, Temple, Vanderbilt, and Colorado State were among the schools to have better ranked classes.
  • #63 Wake Forest–hey, anytime the Demon Deacons avoid the basement, it is a good thing.
  • #68 Georgia Tech–having only 18 recruits hurts, but should Georgia Tech EVER be below Western Michigan in recruiting?  They do recruit for a system, though, and the system players usually suffer in the rankings.
  • #82 Boston College–sigh.  Only Kansas has a worse recruiting class among P5 schools.  Miami of Ohio has a better class.  But better than neighbors UConn and UMass.  And similar classes did not prevent BC from having a great defense.

What do you think?  Are you happy with your school’s class? Disappointed?  Dispute these RIVALS rankings?  Let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Rankings, Recruiting and tagged , , ,

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