The Confidential

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03 Mar 2013
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The Syracuse Free Fall Continues

It was not that long ago that Syracuse fans were all in a tither over the fact that the 2012-2013 Orange hoopsters were not getting enough national respect.  As the season approaches its end, it would appear that it was these vocal fans, rather than the poll voters who received the targeted criticism, that were incorrect.  After all, Syracuse is on a 4-6 streak in its last 10 games.  The only wins were home games against Providence, St. John, and Notre Dame (by far, the best win/game during that stretch), as well as a road game against Seton Hall.  The Orange have gone from a potential #1 seed to wondering what it would take to land a #4 seed.

As this author is a long-time Syracuse fan, it is easy to see the folly in the fans questioning the pollsters.  History has shown better Syracuse teams getting upset in the first round of the Big Dance, as well as worst teams making a run.  Really, who cares whether a team is ranked #1 or #3 in a December poll?  Who cares whether Joe Lunardi has Syracuse as a #2 seed in January?  There are only two things that matter: (a) making the Big Dance; and (b) winning during it.  Everything else is secondary.  Worrying about respect is rather pathetic and no fan of any program should worry about it too much.  And this one does not.

But, as a long-time Syracuse fan, the flaws with this team were always rather apparent.  Only one bona fide shooter on the team–James Southerland.  And he has come up cold in key moments more often than not during his career.  Kind of the opposite of Gerry McNamara, who saved his best for the big games and big moments.  More like an A-Rod.  The Arkansas game was a big showcase for Southerland; unfortunately, it was more of an anomaly on the season.  Even worse, however, is the lack of ANY offense from the big men.  That allows other teams to focus on the already-weak outside shooters.  And the smart Big East coaches, with talented teams and good schemes, has Syracuse averaging less than 60 points per game in their 6 conference losses.  Moreover, while Michael Carter-Williams may have NBA scouts drooling, that potential is nowhere near being realized.  He is still a sophomore, and not all sophomores go from backup guard to NBA player in the transition year (spoiled by Dion Waiters?).  So it is what it is.  This was never a top 5 team and it was silly to think otherwise.

Yet, before any Syracuse fans go looking for a tall building to leap off of… keep in mind that this team is not nearly as bad as a three-game losing streak or 4-6 streak indicates.  The losses this season are to 21-8 Temple (N), 23-4 Georgetown (H), 24-5 Louisville (H), 21-7 Marquette (A), 22-7 Pittsburgh (A), 19-9 Connecticut (A), and 18-11 Villanova (A).  The Big East losses are against teams with at least a .500 conference record.   Only Villanova has any chance of missing the Big Dance based on performance (UConn, of course, will miss it for other, NCAA sanction reasons).  So this is not a Syracuse team that is losing to bottom feeders.  And Syracuse is not getting blown out in losses either–the average margin of defeat in the losses is less than 7 points.  And the defense has remained quite good.  In the Big Dance, the opponents will be teams that likely have not faced the length and athleticism of the 2-3 zone.  So if the defense is good against teams/coaches that see it every year, just wait until the other opponents have to face it.   If Syracuse can lower its opponents scoring by 5 points and hit one more three-pointer, a 7 point loss becomes a victory.  So all is not lost.

Most importantly, a game against DePaul looms.  DePaul is a team that Syracuse can and should beat.  If it cannot, it might be time to panic.  But if Syracuse can win, maybe they can start building some confidence and momentum back.  And the Big East tournament provides yet another opportunity to right the ship. As UConn showed a few years ago, you can be terrible down the stretch, but get hot in March and win it all.  Free fall or not, it’s not over until it is truly over.

 

Get your Big East Conference Tournament tickets here:

Big East Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

ACC fans, get your tournament tickets here:

ACC Basketball Tournament – All Sessions

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference News, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
31 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Rare Shout-Out to Other Blogs

The Confidential’s two favorite general blogs on the Internet, other than this one, are Frank the Tank and ACC Football Rx.  They should be part of any ACC fan’s regular reading.

ACC Football Rx is ACC-focused, which is great.  With a focus on football and expansion, the primary author, Hokie Mark, does a great job of picking subjects, accumulating data, and being realistic/positive about the ACC.  Really, there are far too many good articles over there to point out just one.  Add it your list.

Frank the Tank is expansion-based and Big 10 centric (to say the least), but there are a fair share of commentators who hold an allegiance outside the Big 10.  And the author is quite-evenhanded in discussing other conferences.  The commentariat is a little less reasoned, but are a great source for expansion ideas.

That blog’s latest entry discusses the Big XII and the ACC, the alliance discussed here last week, and other topics.  As always, the blog is quick to note that the assumption that the ACC in jeopardy is more fantasy than reality right now:

So, that’s where I see the threats of the ACC becoming completely coming apart end up failing.  UNC, in particular, has Texas-esque influence (even if it’s more perceived than real) in the ACC, and the actions of Deloss Dodds and the Longhorns have shown that power and big dog status can be even more important as making the most TV money from a conference.  (Notre Dame feels the same way.)  As a result, the thought that UNC and UVA are going to bolt because they are scared that the ACC will collapse doesn’t hold water with me.  Those 2 schools can keep the ACC together alone and they have enough powerful alums with massive pocketbooks and politicians backing them where getting more TV revenue isn’t going to carry the same weight with them as it did with Maryland.

That’s some good stuff too. And it really underscores why the ACC’s biggest problem is worrying about what the rest of the conference schools might be thinking.

If you care about the ACC, expansion matters.  These two blogs are two more to add to your required reading list.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
30 Jan 2013
3 Comments

SU Football starts the transition

There is never a good time for a good college football coach to leave.  Just when Orange fans see the program turning the corner with Doug Marrone, next thing you know he is the HC of the Buffalo Bills.

New Head Coach Scott Shafer has been quite busy building a new staff and trying to keep recruits.  The Orange lost top QB recruit Zach Allen to TCU just two days before he was supposed to enroll at Syracuse.  The Orange also lost a few other players in transition. Long time SU fans remember Ray Rice decommitted when Paul Pasqualoni was let go – think both teams fortunes changed for a decade after that one?  However, the new staff has already attracted a few new recruits with the recently patched together staff including dual threat QB Mitch KImble from Illinois and WR Corey Cooper out of Raleigh, NC.  The latter was being recruited by new OC George McDonald who is being counted on to not just lead the offense but to recruit in ACC territory having been with Miami last season.

As part of the move to the ACC the Orange was hoping to go into some new recruiting territoy and now has someone with ties in the conference’s footprint.  However, Syracuse has to still recruit the 250 mile radius around its campus successfully.  In the 80’s and 90’s they owned the NJ/NYC area – then Greg Schiano and Randy Edsall came along and the Orange have struggled regularly since.  Doug Marrone was just making some inroads into the NYC area and had a few asst. coaches who new the area well, but they went with him to the Bills.  I’m very encouraged with how the new staff has held things together.  The staff isn’t completely filled yet, but as of yet, they don’t have anyone with ties to the metropolitan area and only two verbal commits so far are from NYC and none from NJ.  If the ‘Cuse is going to continue the recent upswing as they enter the ACC, they will have to somehow get back into their base recruiting area.  Otherwise, it could be a rough start in the ACC next year.

Posted by tjcuseacc in ACC only, Football, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , ,
14 Jan 2013
1 Comment

ACC Considering a Network?

In a move that should surprise exactly nobody, the Atlantic Coast Conference may be considering an ACC network.  The Big 10 has one that mints money.  The Pac-12 is working on a network.  The SEC is in the planning stages of having a network.  The ACC really has to consider this as a means of survival.  Or at least “keeping up with the Joneses.”

While nobody should expect an ACC network to generate the type of revenue that the Big 10 network does, the ACC can still make additional money with a network.  The Big 10 has been successful with third-tier games.  An expanded ACC has some pretty compelling third-tier games to offer.  And the ACC basketball side of things will lead to substantial inventory.  This is what the Big East always missed–basketball is inventory.  Hopefully, the ACC will learn from the Big East’s mistake.  You’ve got to market what you have to market.

To be sure, ESPN has the ACC’s rights locked up for the next 15 years.  But if ESPN wants to have an ACC, it is going to have to bend.  If the ACC is splintered and split up by the other conferences, Fox could very well end up with some of the most attractive names.  ESPN may have sole rights over the SEC, but the SEC only has room for 2 more teams.  The Big 10 and Big 12 can take 8-10 teams between them.

In any event, it is good to see the ACC exploring all of its options.  A network is part of the future revenue puzzle.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
03 Oct 2012

ACC Pares Back Football Schedule

In a move that is sure to placate the football schools within the conference, the ACC has announced that it will be shifting back to an 8-game conference schedule.  The addition of Notre Dame to the football schedule in 2015 was at least part of the impetus for the change. This will allow the football-centric schools, particularly Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson, to continue to play their SEC rivals and have some additional scheduling flexibility.

The basketball slate will remain 18 games per season, although teams will now have two “primary” opponents that they play each season.  The ACC announced these pairings:

Boston College – Notre Dame and Syracuse
Clemson – Florida State and Georgia Tech
Duke – North Carolina and Wake Forest
Florida State – Clemson and Miami
Georgia Tech – Clemson and Notre Dame
Maryland – Pitt and Virginia
Miami – Florida State and Virginia Tech
North Carolina – Duke and NC State
NC State – North Carolina and Wake Forest
Notre Dame – Boston College and Georgia Tech
Pitt – Maryland and Syracuse
Syracuse – Boston College and Pitt
Virginia – Maryland and Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech – Miami and Virginia
Wake Forest – Duke and NC State

It is really hard to quibble with these pairings.  Certainly Pitt would prefer to play Notre Dame, but most teams probably would.  Given that Syracuse will probably have to have its football games against the Fighting Irish be played in New York City, the conference was nice to give the Orange a pair of games.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Football and tagged , , ,
19 Sep 2012
2 Comments

The NCAA: Screwing Student-Athletes Whenever Possible

With the denial of John Raymon’s transfer waiver request, the NCAA has proven that, once again, it is a completely out-of-touch organization looking out for everyone EXCEPT the student-athletes it purports to care about.  The Confidential does not know all the details of why Raymon sought a waiver and does not care.  The bottom line is that a kid of roughly 20-years-old was denied the right of changing his mind in a way that virtually no other segment of American society has to endure. If he was a 50-year-old coach, the move from Iowa to Syracuse would be swift and without penalty.

Look, the Confidential understands the transfer rule generally.  If there was no transfer penalty, then the recruitment process would be ongoing year-after-year for players already on rosters.  If that happened, every star player at Iowa State could be “recruited” to finish his final two seasons at Nebraska.  And so on.  That’s just not how American society chooses to operate.

Except… that is EXACTLY how American society chooses to operate.  If an accountant wants to leave his firm, he can give two weeks notice.  If a lawyer wants to start her own practice, she can give two weeks notice and do so.  If an engineering major wants to transfer from Iowa State to Nebraska, he or she can do so without having to defer pondering differential equations for one year.  If the President of Iowa State wants to become the President of Nebraska, he can do so without “sitting out a year.”

Of course, the response to that is that the NCAA is not a normal business.  No, it is not normal.  It is simply made up of institutions, dozens of whom now make $20,000,000 a year in television revenue.  It is made up of institutions who do not balk at asking alums for money to build stadiums.  It is made up of institutions that are willing to pay coaches $1,000,000+ to tell a bunch of young adults what to do on the athletic field.  The NCAA is not “normal business” anymore, it is big business now.  So, NCAA, spare the world your 19th century morals.  You gave those up long ago.

Indeed, the hypocrisy is astounding.  The NCAA does not punish a coach who chooses to take a job at a new institution.  But it DOES impose a transfer penalty on the players that were recruited to play for that very coach at that very school.  So there is freedom of movement for adult coaches, but not the young adult players who foolishly chose to play for a guy that abandons the program.  And that is just the head coach.  What about the assistants that are on the front lines of recruitment and in many cases closer to the players.  Assistant coaches are even more likely to switch universities–voluntarily or involuntarily.  Just ask the coordinators at Houston and Wisconsin that were fired before mid-September.

So… if a 50-year old coach decides to abandon his $1,400,000 a year job at College A to take a $2,200,000 a year job at College B, he can do so without penalty.  If an 19-year old kid second guesses his decision to attend College A, and wants to transfer to College B, he must sit out a year.  Sure, the kid can still transfer.  But he cannot play his sport for one year.  The coach of that same sport need not sit out a year.  The NCAA is holding kids to decisions made on or before reaching adulthood, but allowing adults to have greater freedom of movement.

By the way, the NCAA has only recently decided that multi-year scholarships might be, say, a fair idea.  In the absence of multi-year scholarships, College A has been able to recruit a kid and decide after his first year that his athletic scholarship is revoked.  But the kid cannot revoke his own scholarship and seek one elsewhere.  Again, anything to screw student-athletes.  Fortunately, the vote to allow multi-year scholarships barely passed.  So at least now the kids restrained from transferring have a chance to bind the schools that bind them.

Of course, now the NCAA might want to drop the term “student-athlete.”  The Confidential is not sure what term will be used to describe who the NCAA screws in the future, but the screwing will likely continue unabated.   That’s just what the NCAA does.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Other Sports, Scandal, Uncategorized and tagged , , , ,
23 Feb 2012

ACC Daily News: February 23, 2012

Here are your news and notes regarding the Atlantic Coast Conference for February 23, 2012.

In basketball, the big news is tonight’s game between #5 Duke and #15 Florida State.  As you may recall, Florida State went on the road and defeated Duke on a shot by Michael Snaer at the buzzer.  This helped propel Florida State into the top 15 (along with the dominating win over North Carolina).  Needless to say, Duke is looking for revenge.  And, as of right now, both teams are tied for 2nd place in the conference standings with identical 10-2 records.  The winner will share #1 with North Carolina, who is 11-2.  The game is at 7:00 p.m. and will be televised on ESPN.

Syracuse improved to 28-1 overall and 15-1 in Big East play with a win over surprising South Florida.  Although it may be another year before Syracuse’s wins count for the conference, the Orange’s season does provide promise for the future.

In football, Randy Edsall was gracious enough to allow 2010 ACC Rookie of the Year Danny O’ Brien to transfer.  But he would not allow the sophomore quarterback to transfer to Vanderbilt.  Well, after receiving ample criticism from the media, Edsall finally did the honorable thing and will allow O’ Brien to consider Vanderbilt.  Its kind of like when the Grinch’s heart grew three sizes in one day.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , ,
20 Feb 2012

ACC Reprimands Official Karl Hess

One of the minor news stories making the rounds was ACC referee Karl Hess’s ejection of Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta from their  seats behind the scorer’s table during North Carolina State’s loss to Florida State on Saturday.  Apparently,  Corchiani and Gugliotta were never given an explanation as to why they had been given the boot.  Today, the ACC reprimanded Hess.

The ACC specifically stated as follows:

In a statement Monday night, the league said it had conducted a “thorough review” of the events leading up to Hess’ ejections of former Wolfpack stars Chris Corchiani and Tom Gugliotta from seats behind the scorer’s table during the second half of Saturday’s loss to Florida State.

The ACC said after the game that officials have the authority to ask the home team’s management to remove fans when, in the official’s judgment, their behavior is extreme or excessive. After Hess gestured to have Gugliotta and Corchiani removed, they were approached by an officer from the Raleigh Police Department.

“Karl Hess is one of the best on-court officials in college basketball, but the ACC has established a game management protocol, which allows the opportunity to potentially diffuse any situations before they reach the level of ejection,” ACC commissioner John Swofford said in the statement. “His reprimand is a result of a failure to follow that protocol.

“We have to depend on our officials and their judgments; and the explanation from Karl Hess regarding this matter has been shared with the ACC and N.C. State University.”

Thus, in this battle between uber-fans of the Wolfpack and the ACC powers-that-be, the Wolfpack won.

ACC fans, of course, recall that Gugliotta and Corchiani are top players in North Carolina State history.  Both spent time in the NBA, with Gugliotta having a 13-year career.  It is great that the players remain passionate about their alma mater.  Hopefully, they can avoid being tossed in the future. More importantly, how about the rabbit-eared referees concentrate on doing their typical mediocre job instead of worrying about the fans?

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Conference News and tagged , , ,
15 Dec 2011

ACC Hoops to Go to 18 Games in 2012-2013

The ACC has decided to switch from 16-game model to an 18-game model.  According to the ACC’s official website:

“Our member institutions have been talking about this increase for awhile and knowing our league will be expanding to 14 in the future, we’ve decided to move to an 18-game conference schedule next year, regardless of our membership number,” said ACC Commissioner John Swofford. “The additional conference games create a more equitable schedule and we’ve received significant feedback from our fans for more conference games.”

This will apply to both men’s and women’s basketball.

The questions are already being raised as to whether this is a good move or not.  Some are concerned that this will lead to Duke scaling back its ordinarily challenging out-of-conference slate.  Naturally, there must be a quantity reduction with this move.  So the only real question is whether and how it impacts the quality of the out-of-conference scheduling.

Again, this change will apply without regard to whether Syracuse and Pittsburgh are part of the ACC.

Notably, the Pac-12 has already implemented the 18-game schedule for its 12 teams.  Of course, when it had 10 teams, the 18-game slate allowed for a true round-robin.  The Pac-12 did not have to add games when it expanded by two teams.

In the end, until the league can get up to 16 teams (we’re looking at you Notre Dame), 18 games will be a bit cumbersome.  But, with 16 teams and two 8-team divisions, playing each team in your division twice and 1/2 of the teams in the other divisions works out to a very nice…. 18 games.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , ,

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