The Confidential

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16 Sep 2012

ACC Football Week 3 Recap

Well, with Week 3 in the books, here is how it all went down in ACC-land:

GOOD NEWS:

Florida State looks to be for real.  The Seminoles destroyed Wake Forest, 52-0, to avenge last year’s disappointing loss.  If you are keeping score at home, Florida State has scored 176 points and allowed 3.  That will work.  Things get tougher next week with Clemson visiting–but it’s looking like the 1990s for the Seminoles.  This result was awful for Wake Forest, but it’s better for the ACC to have Florida State return to its dominating ways than have a bunch of teams win 7 games.  And Wake Forest will be fine this year–this was not a win anyone should have expected.

Speaking of Clemson, the Tigers got to 3-0 by soundly defeating Furman, 41-7.  This sets up a huge matchup next week between what is looking like the class of the ACC–Clemson and Florida State.

Georgia Tech showed that it is a real player this year too, defeating Virginia 56-20.  As with Wake Forest, Virginia must be hugely disappointed with the effort.  Coming off last week’s nailbiter with reeling Penn State, Virginia fans had to see this coming.  For Georgia Tech, however, this win suggests that the Yellow Jackets’ offense is going to be prolific.

Miami got back to its winning ways with a 38-10 victory over Bethune-Cookman, which is nice.  Duke also moves to 2-1 with a 54-17 win over North Carolina Central.  And North Carolina State is also 2-1 after defeating South Alabama 31-7.

THE OK NEWS:

Give credit to Pittsburgh for pulling off a major turnaround and defeating Virginia Tech, 35-17.  You saw this coming?  You, sir, are a liar.  You most certainly did not see this coming.  Virginia Tech does get upset every so often in September and Pitt has talent.  But an 18-point victory for Pitt after how the first two weeks of the season transpired is just astonishing.  This would be better news, except that one now wonders about Virginia Tech.  Can the ACC let Notre Dame represent the Coastal division this year?

Syracuse finally got its first win of the season, beating Stony Brook 28-17.  That score is too close to call it “good news.”  Syracuse did put up 500+ yards of offense and Stony Brook is a very very good FCS team.  Still, you want your FCS game scores to be more like what Duke and Miami did than this.  Syracuse joins Pitt at 1-2.

THE BAD NEWS:

The Confidential suspected that Maryland was not as good as its 2-0 record suggested.  The Confidential suspected that Maryland would lose by less than a touchdown.  UConn won by 3, 24-21.   So it goes for the Terrapins.

Louisville jumped out to a 36-7 halftime lead over North Carolina, but credit the Tar Heels for making a game of it.  The final score of 39-34 shows just how much of a rally it was.  Still, North Carolina now drops to 1-2.  And this means that the 2012 Big East went 3-0 against the 2012 A.C.C. in Week 3.  Ugh.   Thankfully the ACC had a great week off the field.

On to Week #4…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
10 Sep 2012

ACC Football Rankings: September 10, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  With only two weeks of games played, this is how we rank the ACC football schools as of September 10, 2012:

1.  Clemson (2-0)–Clemson had the toughest two opponents of the top teams, defeating Auburn and Ball State.  Nary an FCS opponent.  So they hold their position.

2. Florida State (2-0)–Due to scheduling issues, the Seminoles have not been remotely tested yet.  But they have looked awfully good.  Can they topple nemesis Wake Forest?

3. Virginia Tech (2-0)–A good, standard FCS drubbing against Austin Peay keeps the Hokies at a solid #3.  They get reeling Pitt next.

4. Georgia Tech (1-1)–Georgia Tech took care of Presbyterian, which is nice.  We’ll keep them #4.  Barely.

5. Wake Forest (2-0)–The Demon Deacons have been far from dominant.  But they have not been losers yet.  Seminoles loom though.

6. Virginia (2-0)–Virginia beat Penn State, but barely.  Penn State’s leftovers beat themselves, particularly on special teams.

7. North Carolina State (1-1)–Well, the Wolfpack has a win over a BCS foe and a loss to a BCS foe.  We give them the edge over Syracuse and Maryland.

8. Syracuse (0-2)–If you watched the game, Syracuse more than held their own against USC.  Moral victories are not worth much, but if Syracuse played the schedule of most teams, they’d be 2-0 or 1-1.

9. Maryland (2-0)–Hard to believe, but the Terps are 2-0, with wins over William & Mary and BCS newbie (renewbie?) Temple.  Next up?   A winnable game against UConn.  Going to be some fired up players and coaches for that game.

10. Miami (1-1)–Of the four 1-1 teams, only Miami has beaten a team from a BCS conference (B.C.), and that was a road game.  So we’ll give the Hurricanes the benefit of the doubt for one more week.

11.  North Carolina (1-1)–Played valiantly against Wake Forest, before losing.  They did handle Elon pretty handily.  Yippee.

12.  Boston College (1-1)–Boston College did what it needed to do against Maine.  And then some.

13. Duke (1-1)–One step forward with the win over Florida International.  Three steps backward in getting walloped by Stanford.

14. Pitt (0-2)–Pitt looked lost for parts of the game against Cincinnati.  The talent is there, this is all about coaching right now.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Sep 2012

ACC Football Week 2 Recap

Well, with Week 2 in the books, here is how it all went down in ACC-land:

GOOD NEWS:

The ACC elite beat up on lesser opponents handily.  There were no Arkansas-like upsets.  Florida State defeated Savannah State before the mercy rule kicked in, 55-0.  Georgia Tech destroyed Presbyterian, 59-3.  Virginia Tech took care of Austin Peay, 42-7.  Does the Confidential even need links to these games?  Just go here.

Don’t look past the fact that Boston College won convincingly, defeating Maine 34-3.  Maine usually gives FBS schools fits, as further confirmed by leading after the first quarter 3-0.  But BC did what it needed to do.

Clemson looked the part in defeating a decent Ball State squad, 52-27.  So now Clemson sits at 2-0.  Oh and they get Sammy Watkins back next week too.

ACC>Big East.  Nobody is claiming that UConn/Temple are LSU/Alabama, but two underwhelming ACC schools with a host of their own problems rolled into the home stadiums of two 1-0 Big East schools and pulled out victories.  North Carolina State rebounded nicely from its Tennessee loss by defeating a UConn team that has an outstanding defense, 10-7.  And how about Maryland getting to 2-0 by defeating Temple 36-27.  After last week’s offensive debacle against William & Mary, putting up 36 points on Temple is not too shabby.

Tough call here, but let’s put the Syracuse loss to USC in the “good news” department.  Losing 42-29 to a team with more offensive talent than several NFL rosters is nothing to be ashamed about.  In fact, despite being 0-2, Syracuse seems to be ready to return to college football relevance.  They MUST win the next two games though.

THE OK NEWS:

Virginia beat Penn State 17-16, which is a heck of lot better than losing to the undermanned Nittany Lions.  But this is not your grandfather’s Penn State team.  Frankly, this is not even your 2011 Miss America’s Penn State team.  And it’s hard to get too excited about a win over a team that misses an extra point and four field goals, including a 42-yarder.  With Penn State’s best players scattered throughout the country, Virginia did not look too good.

While the Confidential is proud to have picked Wake Forest to beat North Carolina, this still means that North Carolina lost.  Wake Forest showed little in their 28-27 victory to suggest that they can repeat last year’s upset of Florida State next week.  Still, 2-0 is better than the alternatives.

THE BAD NEWS:

The ACC had two games where it traveled to ranked, out-of-conference opponents.  The results were tough to swallow.  Miami completely imploded against Kansas State in the Little Apple, losing by an embarrassing score of 52-13.  Nothing good to take from this game.  And Stanford walloped Duke, 50-13.  Nobody expected Duke to win, but there was hope that this would be a competitive game.  Instead, the two ACC games featuring road games against ranked opponents resulted in a combined 104-26 trouncing.

Meanwhile, the ACC can pretend to ignore Pitt this year, but the Panthers are 0-2 and looking fairly inept in the process after losing to Cincinnati on Thursday, 34-10.  If you watched the game, you saw a coaching staff that appears overmatched.  At the very least, all of these coaching changes have Pitt a step behind its opponents.

On to Week #3…

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Sep 2012

ACC Football Rankings: September 4, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  With only only one week of games played, this is how we rank the ACC football schools as of September 4, 2012:

1.  Clemson (1-0)–Clemson had the toughest opponent of Week 1 (Auburn) and still won.  Not sure that Florida State will wait long to  surge past, but Clemson gets the nod for Week 1.

2. Florida State (1-0)–Hey, a 69-3 drubbing of Murray State could be worse.  See the bottom part of the standings.

3. Virginia Tech (1-0)–An important 20-17 win over Georgia Tech in overtime gets the Hokies off to a good start.

4. Georgia Tech (0-1)–Despite stumbling to Virginia Tech on the road, the Yellow Jackets get the nod over Miami and Virginia due to the opponent.

5. Miami (1-0)–Miami went on the road to B.C. and avenged last year’s loss.  32 points was a lot to give up, but the offense looked good.

6. Virginia (1-0)–Richmond is a tough FCS foe, but Virginia handled them appropriately.  Started strong and ended strong, en route to a 41-16 win.

7. North Carolina (1-0)–Well, that was a great way to start the Fedora era–a 62-0 drubbing of Elon.  Not sure we learned much about UNC though.

8. Syracuse (0-1)–If you watched the game, Syracuse dominated a very good Northwestern team.  Silly special teams mistakes made this game close enough for Northwestern to pull it out.

9. Duke (1-0)–Duke looked pretty good in beating a game Florida International team, 46-26.  This was not a squeaker.

10. North Carolina State (0-1)–No shame in losing to an improving Tennessee at a neutral site.  It would have been a great win to take the next step though.

11.  Wake Forest (1-0)–Looked pretty vulnerable in barely beating Liberty, 20-17.  Unlike Maryland, will give Wake the benefit of the doubt that this was just opening week jitters.

12.  Boston College (0-1)–Unfortunately, B.C.’s opening week draw of Miami was too much.  They kept it close but that’s little consolation.

13. Maryland (1-0)–A 7-6 win over William & Mary is not exactly inspiring.  Especially when that TD comes in the 4th quarter.

14. Pitt (0-1)–You lost to an FCS team, you go to the bottom.  You lose at home, but 10+ points to an FCS team?  Wow.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Aug 2012

The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # 1)

With the football season a mere three days away, the time has come for the Confidential’s First Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  Here they are:

  1. Florida State: It’s put up or shut up time for Florida State.  Well, not really.  After all, the Big XII may be crossing its fingers when it says it is not interested in expansion.
  2. Virginia Tech:  Until someone proves otherwise, you might as well pencil in Virginia Tech every year for the conference championship game.
  3. Clemson: After a long off-season trying to forget about the Orange Bowl, the Tigers get to take it out on an opponent.  Unfortunately, it’s not a cupcake–it’s Auburn.
  4. Virginia:  Virginia hopes to maintain the momentum it regained last year.  Need to care of business against FCS Richmond.
  5. North Carolina State: A win against Tennessee, even if the SEC foe is down, would be a great start.  The ACC needs wins like this.
  6. Georgia Tech: It’s hard to predict a win over Virginia Tech in the opener, but Virginia Tech can be vulnerable early in the season.  Ask James Madison. Well, not the former President.
  7. North Carolina: Elon?  Ugh.  Enjoy that game.
  8. Pittsburgh: Because of WVU leaving the Big East, Pitt has two games against FCS foes.  First up… Youngstown State.
  9. Wake Forest: After the disappointing opener loss at Syracuse last year, Wake gets an easier foe in Liberty.  Should start 1-0 obviously.
  10. Miami: Boston College is a tough opener.  At least Miami will not have to deal with all the suspensions like last year.
  11. Syracuse: With Syracuse’s schedule, they pretty much NEED to win against a good Northwestern team.  We’ll see.
  12. Boston College: BC went 0-6 against FBS foes to start last year.  A win over Miami would be a great way to start this year out.
  13. Duke: Florida International may not be a strong team, but Duke has no business looking past anyone.
  14. Maryland: If Maryland is going to turn it around, they absolutely cannot lose to William & Mary.  Last year they opened with a win and the season imploded.

This will get all mixed up soon enough.  Let the games begin….

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Aug 2012

Week 1 Preview: Do Maryland, Syracuse, Duke, BC, and Wake Forest Have Legit Bowl Chances?

I hope you had your fill of summer because it is about to come to an abrupt stop.  Sure, there is plenty of nice weather in September.  But it is also the time of year that your football team–even the Washington States and Dukes and Mississippis–are still alive for a bowl game.  After all, it takes six losses before a team is ineligible for bowl and even that is perhaps going to be loosened up.  So nobody gets eliminated in September.  So… with Week 1 of College Football JUST around the corner, here is a look at what the bottom 5 teams (excluding teams that are automatically ineligible–North Carolina and likely Miami) in the ACC have to do to become bowl eligible this year.

The Confidential does not care what any outsider thinks, the ACC is going to be fairly strong this year.  The weakest teams in the conference–as per the Confidential’s pre-preseason rankings–all have a conceivable shot of making a bowl game this year.  Consider:

  • MARYLAND.  Maryland was abysmal last year.  The new coach, Randy Edsall, decided to ignore what has failed for many new coaches by running players out of the program and blowing things up completely.  As we saw with RichRod in Michigan, one has to be very careful when dismantling and rebuilding.  Edsall permanently lost some of the fan base last year.  Winning 10 games over 3 seasons will mean no 4th season.  The good news is that Maryland has a tough OOC schedule, but one that was perfectly designed, in the Confidential’s opinion.  Maryland opens with FCS William and Mary.  They then move up to play Temple, before moving up one more step to UConn.  Those are three winnable games.  West Virginia is probably a loss most seasons and should be this year.  Wake Forest is at home–winnable #4.  Boston College is away, but that has to be a winnable game for #5.  Now all Maryland needs is to steal a game from the group of North Carolina, North Carolina State, and the even tougher portion of the slate.  With 5 “winnable games,” a 6-win season is not at all impossible.  Likely?  Nah.  But possible.
  • DUKE.  Unlike Maryland, Duke slated its toughest OOC game for Week #2, with Stanford.  But this is a post-Luck, post-Harbaugh Stanford team.  Still, that has to be considered a loss.  Nevertheless, with Memphis, North Carolina Central, and Florida International filling up the OOC slate, a 3-1 OOC record is very reasonable.  Finding the next three wins for Duke is a challenge though.  The best chances are Wake Forest (even if on the road) and the sanctions-laden North Carolina and Miami games.  Both of those games are at home.  It’s possible.
  • BOSTON COLLEGE.  Boston College will be better than last year, but will it translate into victories?  BC opens with Miami at home.  Who knows the mindset of Miami.  But it’s a possible win.  Maine is next, which should be a win.  Northwestern on the road will be tough, especially if Northwestern loses its season opener to Syracuse and is desperate.  Still, Northwestern’s small stadium is not imposing.  It’s winnable.  The Game 5 road game against Army is a winnable game, obviously.  Maryland visits in October, which is yet another winnable game.  Finding the next two is a bit tougher.  Wake Forest is a road game, but still a possibility.  That still leaves a home game against Notre Dame and a road game against North Carolina State.  Bowl eligibility is within reach if Boston College can not only meet its potential, but exceed it.
  • SYRACUSE.  Poor Syracuse.  They have a 5th-year Senior quarterback, but inexperience at running back and the continued trend of underwhelming wide receivers.  The defense will have one more year of experience, but lost two guys to the NFL.  But what really makes this a tough season is the daunting OOC schedule.  As previously noted, Syracuse is doing all but scheduling NFL teams this year, with USC, Missouri, and Northwestern on the slate.  Minnesota is a battle tested BCS program, while even FCS foe Stony Brook is primed to repeat its college baseball run.  In order to go to a bowl, Syracuse HAS to beat Northwestern, Minnesota, and Stony Brook.  Even then, Syracuse has struggled so much in  conference games since firing Paul Pasqualoni, it is hard to envision going 3-4 in conference.  But if they do, the wins will likely come on the road against Rutgers, at home against UConn, and on the road at Temple.  About the only good thing is that Syracuse has been 5-2 each of the past two seasons, before imploding due to lack of depth.  If Syracuse can somehow get to 5-2 this year, all they will have to do is beat Temple.  We’ll see.
  • WAKE FOREST.  Notably, all of the current ACC teams above are looking at Wake Forest as a necessary win to get to bowl eligibility.  So that’s three winnable games for Wake Forest right there–with only Maryland being a road game.  Wake Forest also has winnable games against Army and Liberty.  And given that Wake Forest has Florida State’s number lately…. well, let’s not go there.  Let’s get win #6 from the group of North Carolina, Vanderbilt, and North Carolina State.  Actually, Wake Forest could end up winning 7-8 games the way the schedule breaks down.

Of these teams, you can feel strongest penciling in Wake Forest for a bowl.  But this is why the week leading up to Week 1 is great.  The injuries (excluding Maryland) still seem manageable.  Nobody has lost a “winnable game” yet.  Even September will retain some enthusiasm.  And for the 5 teams with the toughest roads to bowl-eligibility, there is a path.  Now they just have to go walk it.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
21 Aug 2012
2 Comments

Ranking the ACC Out-of-Conference Schedules

The 14 ACC schools certainly have different scheduling philosophies for out-of-conference games.  However, there is not one team that has a truly embarrassing slate, especially relative to the program at issue.  Here is the Confidential’s ranking of teams and the degree of difficulty for their OOC schedules:

Syracuse–USC and Missouri.  That alone puts them atop the list.  Add in Northwestern and Minnesota as two more BCS-level opponents.  Even Stony Brook is a high-level FCS opponent.  Syracuse gets the AC/DC Honorary “Big Balls” Award.

Miami–Kansas State, South Florida and Notre Dame are three high quality opponents.  Only Bethune-Cookman is a sure win.

Florida State–Florida and South Florida are very challenging opponents.  And FSU gets points for being willing to schedule West Virginia, even though that game was cancelled due to West Virginia fleeing the Big East.

Clemson–Auburn and South Carolina are two high-quality OOC opponents also.  Ball State may be tricky too.

Boston College: Notre Dame and Northwestern will be challenges.  Maine is good for an FCS program.  Army may or may not be good.

Virginia–Penn State was supposed to be the key game, but that is now weaker. TCU remains as a very tough opponent though.  Louisiana Tech and Richmond round out the schedule.

Pitt: Virginia Tech and Notre Dame are tough opponents.  Youngstown State and Gardner-Webb mean two FCS opponents.  Buffalo is not an overly difficult game for OOC #5.

Virginia Tech–returned to its Big East roots with games and Pitt and Cincinnati.  The other games are against Bowling Green and Austin Peay.  Meh.

Maryland–West Virginia and UConn, which gives Maryland the edge over NC State.  Temple is not a shabby third OOC game.  William and Mary round out the schedule.

North Carolina State–Tennessee and UConn will be OK opponents, but this is not the Tennessee of the 1990s and UConn did not exist back then.  South Alabama and Citadel are decent for their mid-major/FCS levels, respectively.

Georgia Tech–Georgia is always tough.  Brigham Young may or may not be a challenge, but Middle Tennessee State and Presbyterian are not going to be.

Wake Forest–Notre Dame will be tough, and you can never look past Vanderbilt.  Army and Liberty are also on the schedule.

Duke–Besides Stanford, the Blue Devils play a soft Florida International, Memphis, and North Carolina Central.

North Carolina–Louisville will be good, but Idaho, Elon, and East Carolina are underwhelming.  North Carolina gets the Beck Honorary “Loser” Award for 2012.  [And let’s not talk scandal either.]

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Aug 2012

The Confidential ACC Football Rankings (Week # -1)

With the football season a mere two weeks away, the time has come for the Confidential’s Pre-Preseason Football Rankings.  As with last year, Syracuse and Pitt will be included in these rankings.  In any event, here they are:

  1. Florida State: Sooner or later, the King must be the King.  It has been a long time since the Seminoles were dominant.  Not sure it will happen this year, but they have the inside track for the ACC Championship.
  2. Virginia Tech:  While Miami and Florida State have been the ACC Kings, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC most seasons since the realignment.  The Hokies slide above Clemson due to divisional differences.
  3. Clemson: The first thing Clemson needs to do is forget about the late-season collapse.  The second thing it needs to do is look at all the talent on both sides of the ball.  It’s going to be fun.  Don’t count the Tigers out.
  4. Virginia:  The Confidential likes what happened with Virginia last year and envisions the team building off that success.  It is amazing what a good coaching hire can do to rejuvenate a program.  That Penn State game looks a lot less daunting right now too.
  5. North Carolina State: The Wolfpack have a fairly talented crew returning.  The difficulty of the schedule is questionable.  Tennessee and UConn could go either way.
  6. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets open the season with Virginia Tech.  If the Tech battle goes Ga Tech’s way, this #6 ranking will be low.
  7. North Carolina: The OOC game against Louisville will be tough, especially on the road.  But Elon, Idaho, and East Carolina is not too tough for the remainder of the slate.
  8. Pittsburgh: Every year, the Panthers seem ready to make a run.  Every year they do not.  So, it is #8 for Pitt until they capitalize on potential.
  9. Wake Forest: Not sure where Wake Forest is going with this OOC slate.  Anything from 1-3 to 3-1 is possible with Notre Dame, Vanderbilt, Army, and Liberty.  Pencil in a win over Florida state though.
  10. Miami: A reasonably challenging OOC slate with USF, Notre Dame, and Kansas State.  But Miami gets North Carolina State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech at home.
  11. Syracuse: An insane OOC, with preseason #1 USC, Missouri, Northwestern, and even Minnesota.  Is any other team playing 4 BCS conference teams OOC?  Throw in 4 conference road games and the USC game being home but on a neutral site and this has the makings of a very difficult year.
  12. Boston College: Boston College rallied last year, showing some serious character.  This should pay off in 2013.  Just not quite bowl-ready though.
  13. Duke: Outside of Stanford, Duke’s OOC is very soft.  This #13 ranking may end up being a little low.  But Duke’s going to have to prove it on the field before the Confidential believes.
  14. Maryland: Well, it cannot get WORSE for Randy Edsall, can it?  A tough OOC slate with Temple, UConn, West Virginia and William & Mary?  That’s right… William AND Mary.

The Confidential predicts a Seminoles-Hokies battle for the ACC Championship, with the Seminoles showing the world that they are back.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
16 Aug 2012
5 Comments

Big East Contract Negotiations and the ACC

Last week, someone on the Internet reported that the Big East is looking to get $14 to $17 million per team per year in television revenue.  Granted, the Big East is in the catbird seat as the next conference up to market itself.  But to think that the current collection of Big East schools could approach what the ACC is getting is shocking, especially after losing Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, and TCU.  If the Big East could land that–and that is a huge IF–what would that mean for the ACC?

First, before we get carried away on what the Big East will get, we should heed the words of Frank the Tank, the Internet’s best blog for discussing conference issues (realignment and business):

Regardless, if there’s any semblance of reason out there, then the truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.  NBC Sports Network effectively needs any type of halfway decent live sports content, so it has a larger incentive to pay a premium to the Big East.  Comcast is NOT a charity, though, as evidenced by the aforementioned Animal Practice interlude to the Closing Ceremonies of the Olympics.  This can’t be emphasized enough: Comcast is going to pay the least amount that they can possibly get away with in order to win the Big East rights.  As a result, that floor is going to be determined by how much interest ESPN and, to a lesser extent, Fox have in the Big East.  If the conference wants to obtain maximum value, then it particularly needs to have ESPN legitimately involved in the bidding process or else Comcast isn’t just going to hand over large rights fees for the hell of it and negotiate against themselves.  In my humble opinion, ESPN isn’t going to want to let NBC Sports Network get the Big East for free, but the guys in Bristol aren’t going to go balls out to retain the Big East, either (and Comcast, who has gone toe-to-toe with ESPN in tough negotiations on many fronts, definitely knows that).  That points to a potential Big East contract that’s in the middle of the high and low figures that have been reported out there – let’s say about $10 million per all-sports school per year and $4 million per non-football school per year.

Plus, the Confidential has always believed that ESPN is genuinely irate that the Big East rejected its offer last year.  It remains to be seen whether ESPN will even allow itself to get into a bidding war with other networks over the Big East.  While Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul and Marquette are situated in nice markets, the lack of a football team renders them somewhat indistinguishable from Atlantic 10 schools.  So it falls on the schools like Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, and Rutgers to carry the all-sports side of things.  That is not an awful collection of teams, but is it really going to top what the ACC and Big XII can offer in hoops, much less what all conferences can offer in football.  Just not sold on the ratings being there to justify mega-millions.

But if the Big East does land a deal approaching the ACC’s deal, then it is obvious that the ACC is in trouble.  By being locked-in at well below market value, and with conferences like the B1G and Big XII having the ability to negotiate soon, the disparity will be massive.  Seriously, if the Big East is worth $15M per team, the other conferences have to be worth $30M per team.  It will be hard for FSU and other schools to justify being compensated like a Big East team just because the ACC improvidently locked itself in.

And once the first school leaves the ACC, it is not difficult to envision scenarios where there is a greater pillaging of ACC schools by the Big Four conferences (except the Pac-12).  There are no shortage of Internet posts analyzing just how the major conferences would carve up the ACC.  Unfortunately for Syracuse and Pitt, they may have been on the wrong side of this move.  The Big East having the good fortune to market itself at the perfect time might, ironically, be the ACC’s undoing.

Of course, if you are ESPN, you do not want the ACC imploding.  So, again, expect ESPN to make a “take it or leave it” offer to the Big East that will give it a raise, but also keep the Big East from going on the market.  And if the Big East refuses, ESPN will have to just walk away entirely and put its billion dollars elsewhere.  Frankly, that’s a good move.  ESPN does not need to overpay for content.

Maybe the NHL could use that billion dollars?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
15 Aug 2012
1 Comment

Syracuse Head Coach Doug Marrone on 2012 season: “We will only go as far as anonymous Internet commentators take us.”

(90 minutes south of Canada) Look out Big East, the Syracuse coaching staff is calling in the big guns.  Syracuse Head Coach Doug Marrone addressed the local media with his biggest concerns for the upcoming season and did not shy away from who was responsible for getting his team in position for another post-season run, “Without question we will only go as far as anonymous Internet commentators take us.”

Marrone is loved by real Syracuse fans, who will never forget that he was able to take the big pile of dog doo left behind by Greg Robinson and turn the team into a competitive team in season 1 and a bowl team in season 2.  His popularity peaked in Week 7 of season 3, when Syracuse blew out West Virginia in a nationally televised game to go 5-2.  But the team was unable to win any more games and missed being bowl eligible.  From there, the anonymous Internet commentators began churning out the criticisms and helpful advice.

And Marrone has taken notice.  “If the anonymous commentators on websites like Syracuse.com do not provide us with useful critiques, how can you expect us coaches to make the right adjustments each week?,” Marrone explained.   Athletic Director Dr. Gross added: “The input from our fans, especially the fair weather ones, is huge. I mean, if not for some of the anonymous posters online, then I would have kept Greg Robinson. That guy had two Super Bowl rings and it’s not like you can just walk into a pawn store and buy those.  So I wholeheartedly support Doug’s plan to harness the genius of anonymous Internet commentators.”

Marrone’s plan is brilliant.  Syracuse has hired two graduate assistants to monitor the blogosphere to harvest the great ideas.  He even shared one gem.  A Syracuse.com fan named ScarletNites69 noted that “your teem [sic] sux [sic] because there [sic] offense is the worst ever and will not complete no [sic] 30 yard passes all season.”  So, after spending several hours debating whether the double negative at the end of that comment was a mistake or not, Marrone and his team are fully resolved to rewrite the offense this year to try to complete more of those 30+ yard passes.  No more striving for incompletions and interceptions.

The Confidential’s own research has unearthed several brilliant comments that may or may not end up being utilized by Marrone and his staff:

  • OrangePreTeen11 noted–“our defense would be better if the defense can be where the other offense has the ball more often.”
  • StalkingFrankReich noted–“Not sure why Marrone is beholden to Nassib.  That cute backup Loeb is the real deal–why are we going to waste his talents on the sidelines in favor of a Senior who has never taken Syracuse to even ONE Super Bowl?  How many chances does this guy get?”
  • CuseGramps noted–“Syracuse won a national championship with Jim Brown.  We just need to recruit more guys like Jim Brown.”
  • James1983 noted–“I coached High School football at a big time program.  Marrone just needs to tell these guys to block and tackle.  Obviously, he is not doing that.”
  • Cap_10_Ille noted–“Syracuse needs to pass on 1st down, run on 2nd down, and then pass on 3rd down.  Every series.  That will keep the defense off guard.  If they run on first down even once this year, I am cancelling my season tickets.”

“Everyone knows that the most talented and experienced advisors are not wasting their Saturdays and Sundays on the sidelines,” added a rival coach who preferred to remain anonymous, “but instead are impressing their friends and family with their superior knowledge of sports from the comfy confines of their livings rooms.”  Other top-tier programs have secretly relied heavily on call-in radio shows to get expertise advice on how they should have played the game better, but Syracuse has upped the ante.  Look for big things from Syracuse this year.

by Anthony Caffrey & Matt Caffrey

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Sarcasm and tagged , , ,

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