The Confidential

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08 Oct 2012

ACC Football Rankings: October 8, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of October 8, 2012:

1.  Florida State (5-1)–With its win over Clemson, the Confidential simply cannot punish the Seminoles for its road loss to North Carolina State THAT much.  There is plenty more time for Clemson to show it deserves this spot over the team that it lost to.

2. Clemson (5-1)–In beating Georgia Tech, Clemson has itself set up nicely to pounce if/when Florida State disappoints next.  The Tigers need to focus on running the table in the ACC and worry about its conference rival South Carolina only when that game week approaches.

3. Duke (5-1)–Duke keeps winning.  That Stanford loss looks worse now, but who had the Blue Devils playing for bowl-eligibility in mid-October?  Give credit where it is due.

4. North Carolina State (4-2)–Before the weekend, Florida State was in the national title picture.  After this weekend, they are not.  Credit North Carolina State for making that happen.

5. North Carolina (4-2)–The Tar Heels finally beat someone with some talent–the very talented Virginia Tech Hokies.  They’ll have to prove that the deserve to stay in this spot when they visit Miami this week.

6. Miami (4-2)–Miami has yet to lose in conference play, but they have been simply awful against top 10 teams out of conference.  They have been outscored 93-16.  Not a typo.  Wow.

7. Maryland (3-2)–Well, the Terrapins are above .500.  They kept it as close against West Virginia as anyone all year.  The best wins are Temple and Wake Forest though.  Ugh.

8. Wake Forest (3-3)–The Demon Deacons beat North Carolina.  Virginia Tech did not.

9. Virginia Tech(3-3)—Not that Wake Forest has done THAT much to be ahead of Virginia Tech.  But Virginia Tech is struggling in a way that we have not seen under Frank Beamer.

10. Syracuse (2-3)–Syracuse was desperate for a win and got it, defeating Pitt 14-13.  A pretty ugly win though.

11. Pittsburgh (2-3)—At least Pitt has a nice win over Virginia Tech.  They lost a lot of momentum with that Syracuse loss though.

12. Georgia Tech (2-4)–The loss to Clemson was not bad, but the Georgia Tech resume is just not that impressive.  They did beat Virginia though.

13. Virginia (2-4)–That lucky win over Penn State looks nice.  But otherwise Virginia has been awful.

14. Boston College (1-4)–For a few weeks, the Confidential has been saying that Boston College doesn’t deserve to be #14.  Losing to Army?  There, now they deserve it.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
07 Oct 2012

ACC Weekend Football Recap: October 7, 2012

Well, another week is in the books for the ACC and its national title hopes are in the dumpster.  It is not Florida State’s fault that the ACC is out of the national title picture, but it is Florida State’s fault that the Seminoles are.  The ACC’s other “BCS hopefuls” looked particularly poor also, with Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami all losing.  Simply put, the ACC continues to mire itself in football mediocrity.

Here are the current standings:

Atlantic Conference W-L Overall W-L
Maryland 1-0 3-2
Clemson 2-1 5-1
Florida St. 2-1 5-1
N. Carolina St. 1-1 4-2
Wake Forest 1-3 3-3
Boston College 0-2 1-4
Coastal Conference W-L Overall W-L
Miami (Fla.) 3-0 4-2
Duke 2-0 5-1
North Carolina 1-1 4-2
Virginia Tech 1-1 3-3
Georgia Tech 1-3 2-4
Virginia 0-2 2-4

So there you have it.  Maryland, of all teams, is leading the Atlantic division.  And Miami and Duke are pacing the Coastal division.  If you bet $5 in Vegas on a Duke-Maryland championship game, you’d be looking for an island somewhere to purchase.  But that’s a possibility (mathematically).

It was not all bad for the ACC.  Duke rising to the occasion to beat Virginia IS a good story.  Virginia remains a dumpster fire, but Duke has not beaten Wake Forest and Virginia–neither team expected to be as bad as they currently are.  A Duke surge in football will be national news.  Clemson beating Georgia Tech continues the legitimacy of the Tigers.  And if Clemson can run the table and defeat a very hot South Carolina team in the process, they will be a legitimate BCS entry for the conference.  Similarly, Florida State running the table would include a defeat of currently surging Florida, accomplishing the same thing.  North Carolina State deserves some kudos for defeating Florida State too.  And we’ll be generous and call the Syracuse-Pitt pillow fight on Friday night a “defensive struggle,” as both teams have had decent offenses all season that were stifled by good performances on the other side of the ball.  These are all good things.

But it was mostly bad.  The ACC could have used a return to relevance by Virginia Tech, but the Hokies lost to North Carolina.  Not sure what is going on with Frank Beamer’s team, but it is not good.  Georgia Tech looked better in losing to Clemson, but 2-4 really was not expected.  That close loss to Virginia Tech looks worse and worse each week too.  Boston College losing to Army simply confirms that the program is in trouble right now.  And Miami remains an enigma–showing no signs of being able to compete on the national stage with another out-of-conference blowout loss.  That suggests that the ACC is that weak nationally–a 3-0 team in conference cannot stay within 30 points of top 10 teams.

There is little to point to defend ACC football in 2012.  At this point, it will be a battle for respect once again.  It is disappointing that the conference is in “wait ’til next year mode,” but it is what it is.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Oct 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 6

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential nailed the Miami, Louisiana Tech, and Cincinnati wins last week.  Did not see the Georgia Tech loss (much less the margin of loss) or Duke wins though.  Still, the Confidential is at a robust 45-11 so far.  On to the week 5 predictions:

Friday October 5, 2012

Pittsburgh (2-2) @ Syracuse (1-3), 7:00 p.m.  Pitt started cold, but has been pretty good lately.  Syracuse starts every game cold, but has warmed up considerably in the second half in all games except Minnesota.  All signs point to Pitt being the team headed in the right direction.  And Syracuse has not beaten Pitt since… well, we’d have to look it up.  THAT long.  Prediction: Pitt 28, Syracuse 20.

Saturday October 6, 2012

Boston College (1-3) @ Army (0-4), Noon.   Both teams could use a victory.  Army just lost to FCS stud team Stony Brook, while BC has only beaten FCS New Hampshire.  Army is not going to lose out, but Boston College just needs this game way too much.  A loss could mean a coaching change.  Prediction: Boston College 27, Army 20.

Virginia Tech (3-2) @ North Carolina (3-2), 12:30 p.m.  Virginia Tech is just not its normal self this year.  North Carolina is able to blow out overmatched opponents, but cannot beat the solid ones.  Virginia Tech is not overmatched.  They may even be better than solid.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 20.

Virginia (2-3) @ Duke (4-1), 3:00 p.m.  The Blue Devils can smell a bowl game.  Virginia is having an unimpressive year.  This is Duke’s chance to be more than just a basketball school.  You have to win the winnable home games to take the next step.  Prediction: Duke 30, Virginia 21.

Georgia Tech (2-3) @ Clemson (4-1), 3:30 p.m.  The Bees are in trouble.  The Tigers are coasting.  Georgia Tech should be motivated after a humiliating loss.  Clemson must remain focused on a talented, but struggling opponent.  Clemson likely has too many weapons right now.  Prediction: Clemson 42, Georgia Tech 24.

Wake Forest (3-2) @ Maryland (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  Wake Forest could be in Duke’s shoes right now–2/3 the way to a bowl game.  Instead, Wake has to look at a game like Maryland as a game that it needs to win.  Maryland has been much improved this year.  Edge to the home team.  Prediction: Maryland 24, Wake Forest 21.

Miami (4-1) @ Notre Dame (4-0), 7:00 p.m.  The game of the day.  In 2015, this will be a conference game.  For now, it is matchup of two teams that dominated the past, but have struggled in the present.  Anything can happen in this game.  But Brian Kelly has the Fighting Irish defense looking very good.  Prediction: Notre Dame 21, Miami 16.

Florida State (5-0) @ North Carolina State (3-2), 8:00 p.m.  The Seminoles need to avoid a letdown every week.  They are their own worst enemy.  Or best enemy–if they just stay focused, they can beat anyone.  They certainly can defeat NC State–even on the road.  Prediction: Florida State 34, North Caroline State 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
02 Oct 2012
2 Comments

ACC Football Rankings: October 1, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of October 1, 2012:

1.  Florida State (5-0)–With a win over South Florida, the Seminoles showed that they can avoid a let down.  The Seminoles control their own destiny and are looking very very good.

2. Clemson (4-1)–By dispatching Boston College, the Tigers are trying to stay in contention should Florida State slip up. So far, so good.

3. Miami (4-1)–Miami is now 3-0 in conference play.  Who saw that coming after the Week 2 blowout loss to Kansas State (a legit team)?  Is this the year that the Seminoles and Hurricanes finally meet up in the ACC Championship Game?

4. Duke (4-1)–Duke is not supposed to be for real, but the wins just keep adding up for the Blue Devils.  What team with a worse record deserves this spot more?  Exactly.

5. Virginia Tech (3-2)–The Hokies are not having a typical season.  And being slid into the 5th spot is more of a reflection on the implosions elsewhere in the conference.

6. North Carolina State (3-2)–NC State’s game against Miami was the type of game it needs to win to turn the corner.  Of course, this is a statement that gets said for this program multiple times a year it seems like.

7. Wake Forest (3-2)—The Demon Deacons could be #4 in this list, but the loss to Duke caused this drop.  At least they beat the Tar Heels.

8. North Carolina (3-2)–The Tar Heels have done a nice job of beating the teams they are supposed to beat.  Much of the ACC cannot say that, unfortunately.

9. Pitt (2-2)–Despite losing its first two games, Pitt looks to have righted the ship.  Big game against Syracuse this week.

10. Maryland (2-2)—Give credit to Maryland-at least they are much improved over last year.  With all the mediocrity, the Terrapins may yet make a bowl.

11. Georgia Tech (2-3)–Hard to explain what is going on in Georgia Tech.  But they have generally looked better than Virginia.

12. Virginia (2-3)—Virginia has looked worse than their 2-3 record suggests.  In danger of dropping lower.  

13. Syracuse (1-3)–Syracuse is desperate for a win.  Pitt is going to be a tough foe.

13. Boston College (1-3)–Boston College doesn’t deserve to be #14.  They are playing tough teams.  No impressive wins yet.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 5

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams. Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 39-9 start to the season.  It is going to get much worse this week.  Only 2 games are such that upsets are very unlikely.  A lot of surprising wins can happen.  On to the week 5 predictions:

September 29, 2012

Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-2), 12:00 p.m.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-2 in conference play, with both being very close games.  One has to think that Georgia Tech will take out its frustrations on this week’s sacrificial lamb, a directional Tennessee school.  Fortunately, Middle Tennessee is not in the Mac.  So Georgia Tech should win easily.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 40, Middle Tennessee 13.

North Carolina State (3-1) @ Miami (3-1), 12:00 p.m.  One of these teams is headed to a 4-1 record.  As such, this is a statement game for both teams.  Miami has given up a lot of points to the FBS teams on its schedule.  Then again, North Carolina State gave up about as many to Tennessee.  This is a close one, but the edge goes to the home team here.  Prediction: Miami 26, North Carolina State 21.

Duke (3-1) @ Wake Forest (3-1), 12:30 p.m.  Another great matchup for the ACC, as North Carolina rivals Duke and Wake Forest will battle to see who gets to 4-1.  While Duke is much improved this year, Wake Forest seems like the better team.  Again, do not be surprised by an upset.  It’s just hard to pick the road team here.  Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Duke 17.

#17 Clemson (3-1) @ Boston College (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Clemson struggled last year after the first loss and this makes Boston College a sneaky upset pick.  But Clemson is (hopefully) a better team from a mental standpoint this year.  If not, it’s going to be a long season.  Prediction: Clemson 34, Boston College 13.

Idaho (0-4) @ North Carolina (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  North Carolina has beaten the patsies and lost to the decent teams.  Idaho is not a decent team.  Prediction: North Carolina 38, Idaho 11.

Louisiana Tech (3-0) @ Virginia (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  Louisiana Tech averages more than 50 points a game.  Something is in the water this year in Louisiana–just look at what Louisiana-Monroe has been doing.  And La Tech destroyed Illinois.  Virginia has been very disappointing this year.  This is an upset special.  Louisiana Tech 33, Virginia 24.

Virginia Tech (3-1) @ Cincinnati (2-0), 3:30 p.m.   Cincinnati looked good while beating Pitt, who now looks to have righted the ship.  This is Cincinnati’s only real test until late October.  A win here could mean that the Bearcats are 6-0 when returning to conference play at that point.  The Hokies looked awful in losing to Pitt.  Cincinnati on the road will be a more hostile environment.  Sorry, Hokies.  This aint your year.  Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Virginia Tech 21.

#4 Florida State (4-0) @ South Florida (2-2), 6:00 p.m.  The good news for South Florida fans is that this game is not being played on a Thursday.  The bad news is that this game is being played against Florida State.  However, the Bulls should be fired up for this one.  Florida State has to avoid the inevitable let down that follows a game like Clemson.  This one may be close simply because the energy of the Bulls is too much early for the Seminoles to handle, requiring a second half rally to make it close.  Or Skip Holtz is just in over his head and the Seminoles will trash them.  Leaning towards the latter.  Prediction: Florida State 42, South Florida 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Sep 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 5

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 5 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (4-0): Alabama went easy on Florida Atlantic.  Good for them.  They still won by 30+.  Next up: Mississippi.
  2. Florida State (4-0): Nobody in the top 3 has a better win than Florida State, with the Clemson win.  They are outscoring opponents now by a mere 55-10.   Next up: @ South Florida.
  3. LSU (4-0):  The Tigers struggled to beat the Tigers.  Typical SEC game.  Oh yeah–the LSU Tigers beat the Auburn Tigers 12-10.  Next up: Towson.
  4. Oregon (4-0): The Ducks looked very good in dispatching Arizona.  They shut out a Rich Rodriguez-coached team.  Nice.  Next up: @ Washington State.
  5. Kansas State (4-0): Kansas State has beaten top 5 Oklahoma, in Oklahoma, and destroyed 3-1 Miami.  Anyone have a better resume?  Next up: Kansas.
  6. Georgia (4-0): Took Vanderbilt to the cleaners, 48-3.  Georgia is looking like a solid #3 team in the SEC.  Next up: Tennessee.
  7. Notre Dame (4-0): The Fighting Irish beat Navy in Ireland, Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan.  Pretty impressive set of wins.  Next up: Michigan.
  8. South Carolina (4-0): The Gamecocks had little trouble with Missouri.  Welcome to the SEC, Mizzou!   Next up: @ Kentucky.
  9. West Virginia (3-0): In its first real challenge of the season, West Virginia allowed Maryland to hang around.  Need to turn it up a notch in the Big XII.  Next up: Baylor.
  10. Stanford (3-0): Stanford got the week off.  They play a Thursday game against the Huskies in Washington this week.  Next up: @ Washington.
  11. Florida (4-0): The Gators are beating up on the middling teams of the SEC.  Up next is LSU on October 6th.  Next up: Idle.
  12. Louisville (4-0): Louisville was not exactly dominant against FIU–a team that Duke handled.  At least it was a road game.  Next up: @ Southern Mississippi.
  13. Clemson (3-1): Clemson did well against Florida State, all things considered.  They need to avoid the losing streak of last year though.  Next up: Boston College.
  14. Ohio State (4-0).  Ohio State still hasn’t really played anyone good.  This changes immediately.  Next up: @ Michigan State.
  15. TCU (3-0).  The Horned Frogs looked very good against Virginia.  Have you looked at TCU’s last four games on the season?  Wow.  Next up: @ SMU.
  16. Texas (3-0). Next up: @ Oklahoma State.
  17. Oklahoma (2-1): Next up: Idle.
  18. USC (3-1). Next up: @ Utah.
  19. Michigan State (3-1). Next up: Ohio State.
  20. Oregon State (2-0).  Next up: @ Arizona.
  21. Northwestern (4-0). Next up: Indiana.
  22. Mississippi State (4-0).  Next up: Idle.
  23. Virginia Tech (3-1). Next up: Cincinnati.
  24. Michigan (2-2): Next up: @ Purdue.
  25. Rutgers (4-0). Next up: Idle.

* * *

121. Syracuse (1-3).  Syracuse has played a brutal schedule of USC, Northwestern, and Minnesota (away).  Still, the only Orange victory was against FCS Stony Brook, 28-17.

122. Temple (1-2).  The win over Villanova was nice.  And Penn State and Maryland are improved.  Still–only victory is over an FCS foe.

123. Boston College (1-2).  Boston College has lost to Miami and Northwestern.  No shame in that.  The only victory is over FCS New Hampshire, not exactly a power.

124. Arkansas (1-3).  Arkansas has officially collapsed.  The only win is over an FCS foe.  With its starting QB, they are dominated by Rutgers.  This should not happen to a good SEC team at home.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
24 Sep 2012

ACC Football Rankings: September 24, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of September 24, 2012:

1.  Florida State (4-0)–The Confidential was wise to slide Florida State up over Clemson BEFORE the two teams met.  Florida State has proven that they are a legitimate national championship contender.

2. Clemson (3-1)–Clemson played well enough against Florida State to keep its #2 ranking.  The fact that Auburn played LSU so tough helps also.

3. Virginia Tech (3-1)–The Pitt loss remains a puzzle.  Beating Bowling Green was nice, but unimpressive.  Actually, the way the MAC performed on Saturday, it actually is impressive.

4. Miami (3-1)–The Hurricanes did what they needed to in beating Georgia Tech on the road.  That makes Miami 2-0 in road conference games.  That will work.

5. Wake Forest (3-1)–The Demon Deacons overcame the difficult loss to Florida State by beating Army, 49-37.  Not sure if giving up 89 points total in consecutive games is a stat that can continue.

6. North Carolina State (3-1)–The win over Citadel works.  Next up… Miami and Florida State.  Uh-oh.

7. Duke (3-1)–Duke has beaten exactly nobody.  But they have beaten three teams.

8. Georgia Tech (2-2)–Losing to Virginia Tech and Miami used to be a regular event for teams.  This year, both teams have head scratching losses that weaken the Georgia Tech profile.

9. Maryland (2-2)–Credit to Maryland for hanging tough at West Virginia.  They also deserve credit for playing 3 BCS conference foes in their OOC slate.

10. Virginia (2-2)–Virginia expected this season to be a good one, as demonstrated by games against Penn State and TCU.  So far, Virginia is really not looking like a top ACC team.

11.  Pitt (2-2)–Of the four 2-2 teams, Pitt has the worst loss.   Of the four 1-2 teams, Pitt has the best win.  Not going to drop them behind North Carolina.

12. North Carolina (2-2)–North Carolina has beaten Elon and East Carolina.  Not sure if there are any middling e-named teams left for them to play.

13. Syracuse (1-3)(tie)–Syracuse looked bad against Minnesota, but kept it to a reasonable 17-10 final tally.  Orange opponents are a combined 14-2 on the season… meaning 11-1 in games not involving the ‘Cuse.

13. Boston College (1-2)(tie)–Idle this week.  No reason to separate the two ACC rivals.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
23 Sep 2012
3 Comments

ACC Football Week 4 Recap

Well, with Week 4 in the books, here is how it all went down in ACC-land:

GOOD NEWS:

Florida State looks to be IS for real.  The Seminoles may not have been able to hold Clemson to just a few points, but Clemson is far from Murray State.  The important thing is that Florida State did not squander the opportunity to take it to the next level.  Giving up 37 points to Clemson is tough to swallow as a good effort–but Clemson is a really good offensive team.  Too many playmakers to not be.  EJ Manuel and the Seminoles putting up 49 points is a nice sign too.  It’s all good for another week in Tallahassee after the 49-37 victory.

Clemson also established itself as the #2 team in the ACC with its very competitive performance against FSU.  Recall that Clemson did not fare well the last time it played in Florida.  The offense is for real.  The defense giving up 49 points is a concern.  But do not expect Clemson to finish 8-4 this year.  They are a legitimate threat to stay in the top 15 all year.

Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Duke, and North Carolina all took care of their overmatched opponents.  Ask Pitt about how it feels to get upset.  Actually, let’s give Pitt some props for defeating Gardner-Webb by a comfortable margin this week as well.

Wake Forest’s 49-37 victory over Army was good in that the Demon Deacons got the needed win.  The 517 yards of offense was pretty nice too.

THE OK NEWS:

The Miami-Georgia Tech game was one of mixed emotions.  On the one hand, Miami’s 42-36 win in overtime means that the Hurricanes are now 2-0 in conference and 3-1 overall.  And they have yet to play a home conference game.  And that Kansas State loss looks a touch better now that KSU beat Oklahoma.  But Miami’s gain is Georgia Tech‘s loss.  The Yellow Jackets were down big, rallied nice, and then lost.  At 2-2 and 0-2 in conference play, things are looking a bit down right now.  Still, there is plenty of time to rally for a nice bowl game.

Maryland may not have won, but nobody expected the game to be close.  A 31-21 loss to the #8 Mountaineers is rather plainly a moral victory for the Terps.  Take it and run.

THE BAD NEWS:

Virginia was a very good team last year.  This year… not so much.  While Virginia was going to be an underdog against ranked TCU, a 27-7 loss is disappointing.  The hope was that the game would be competitive.  It was not.

Syracuse looked overmatched and ineffective against Minnesota, losing 17-10.  While Syracuse’s opponents are a combined 14-2, it would have been nice for the Orange to be 2-2 hitting its bye week.  It is not.

On to Week #4…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 4

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.

Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 28-8 start to the season.  On to week 4,where things will get a little tougher matchup-wise:

September 22, 2012

Bowling Green (1-2) @ Virginia Tech (2-1), noon.  Virginia Tech has to be embarrassed by last week.  The last time the Hokies were embarrassed (James Madison), they won 11 straight.  You cannot predict a loss here.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Bowling Green 14.

Maryland (2-1) @ #8 West Virginia (2-0), noon.   The records say “close game.”  The names have historically suggested “close game.”  While West Virginia has played nobody so far, Maryland’s 2-1 is more imaginary than a cartoon character seeing a mirage of an oasis in the desert.  The only question is whether West Virginia agrees to a running clock in the second half.  Prediction: West Virginia 49, Maryland 10.

Virginia (2-1) @ #17 TCU (2-0), noon.  Before the season, this looked like an upset special.  But Virginia has been underwhelming.  Sure, TCU has to play at 11:00 a.m. local time.  That might help keep it close.  Prediction: TCU 30, Virginia 20.

Army (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-1), 12:30 p.m.  Wake Forest need not be embarrassed by last week’s loss to Florida State.  They need to forget about it and move on.  This is a team that can win 8 or 9 games if things go right.  It all starts against Army.  Prediction: Wake Forest 21, Army 10.

Miami (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-1), 3:00 p.m.  Georgia Tech narrowly lost to a now-questionable Virginia Tech, and looked great in pasting Virginia.  Miami was obliterated by Kansas State, who was only OK against North Texas.  Miami did beat Boston College.  Everything about this suggests Georgia Tech.  Hmmm…. but the Confidential would never place an actual bet on this game.  A hunch that Miami will win–there always seems to be one Georgia Tech or Miami game that is entirely unpredictable.  This may be it.  Despite that, with all meekness and shame, the official prediction is Georgia Tech 38, Miami 34 (OT).

Gardner-Webb (0-3) @ Pitt (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Given that few teams have ever lost to an FCS team once, the odds of Pitt losing to two FCS teams one year is pretty slim.  The win over Va Tech means that if the impossible does happen, the coaching staff would survive to the following Monday.  What would have been an “absolute must win” becomes merely a “must win.”  They have to, right?  Prediction: Pitt 35, Gardner-Webb 10.

East Carolina (2-1) @ North Carolina (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Once upon a time there was a colony named Carolina.  And then it divided into North Carolina and East Carolina.  And that’s how East Carolina became the 14th colony.  Look it up.  Anyway, returning to reality… North Carolina rallied nicely against Louisville and only barely lost to Wake Forest.  East Carolina has looked decent too.  This could be a very good game.  Prediction: North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21.

Memphis (0-3) @ Duke (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  This game is the opposite of FSU-Clemson.  Memphis is one of the worst football teams in FBS.  Anyone willing to bet lunch money on them being a top FCS team?  Did not think so.   Memphis has lost to three teams called Tennessee-Martin, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State (bonus points if you know which one was the FCS school).  Meanwhile, Duke has hardly been a football powerhouse.  But Duke has scored 50 points per game in its two wins.  That’s 50 per game!  Big 10 basketball teams wish they could score like that!  No reason for that trend to stop now.  Prediction: Duke 50, Memphis 21 17 20ish (does it matter?).

Citadel (3-0) @ North Carolina State (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  North Carolina State is a good FBS team.  Citadel (is it The Citadel or not?) is a good FCS team.  This one may be closer than desired for a while, but NC State should pull away right about the time everyone is ready to switch over to the big game of the night.  Prediction: North Carolina State 34, Citadel 17.

Syracuse (1-2) @ Minnesota (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Minnesota’s three wins are not that impressive: UNLV in OT, New Hampshire, and Western Michigan.  But Syracuse’s one win was even less impressive, and that U.S.C. loss now looks less like a “moral victory.”  Nobody should be surprised if Syracuse wins.  But the Confidential has to ignore the heart and recognize the brain saying “home team wins.”  Prediction: Minnesota 31, Syracuse 28.

#10 Clemson (3-0) @ #4 Florida State (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Clemson looked great in defeating Auburn (suspect win now), Ball State (meh), and Furman (sub-meh).  Florida State has looked outstanding in defeating Murray State (yawn), Savannah State (running clock anyone?), and Wake Forest (nice).  Florida State has outscored its opponents by something like 176-3.  They are on pace to give up 12 points.  14 if they win out.  When Florida State was great, it was defense.  The glory days ended in 2001.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State allowed 200 or more points in just 4 seasons.  And three of those were 206 points or less.  See here.  From 2001 to 2011, Florida State allowed less than 200 points only twice.  You get the picture.

The Confidential appreciates that Clemson has two mega-playmakers in Boyd and Watkins.  But Florida State should be able to, at the very least, contain them.  The real question will be whether Florida State can put up points against Clemson.  Given that FSU is averaging 60 points a game, while Clemson allowed 23 PPG to Auburn and Ball State, FSU should be able to score enough.  This is FSU’s time to return to glory.  The Seminoles just need to reach out and grab it, avoiding the self-inflicted wounds of the past.  Also, if Swofford has any common sense at all… Florida State should get a few calls this time.  Prediction: Florida State 34, Clemson 23.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
18 Sep 2012
2 Comments

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 3

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 4 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (3-0): Alabama finally gets the #1 spot in this poll.  Apologies for the delay in recognizing USC’s flaws.  52-0 over Arkansas?  Next up: Florida Atlantic.
  2. Florida State (3-0): The Seminoles have beaten their three opponents by a combined 176-3.  A huge test against Clemson looms.  Next up: Clemson.
  3. LSU (3-0):  The Tigers played Oregon last year, and then Washington and Idaho this year.  Is Montana next?  Next up: @ Auburn.
  4. Oklahoma (2-0): Oklahoma had the week off.  Good for them.  Next up: Kansas State.
  5. Oregon (3-0): The Ducks haven’t really beaten anyone yet.  But it is hard to see anyone being favored to beat them in the Pac-12.  Next up: Arizona.
  6. Clemson (3-0): Clemson handled Furman as easily as they should.  See how that works Arkansas and Auburn?   Next up: @ Florida State.
  7. Georgia (3-0): The Bulldogs got to beat up on Florida Atlantic.  Mission accomplished.  Next up: Vanderbilt.
  8. West Virginia (2-0): Some guy named Jim Madison could not beat West Virginia.  The Mountaineers need to be tested.  Next up: Maryland.
  9. South Carolina (3-0): The Gamecocks dispatched with U.A.B. with little stress.  Now they get to host the Tigers.  Guess which one!!!   Next up: Missouri.
  10. Kansas State (3-0): Kansas State did OK against North Texas.  A bit of a let down after dominating Miami.  Things get real tough this week.  Next up: @ Oklahoma.
  11. Michigan (2-1): As good as Alabama has looked, and as poor as the Big 10 has looked, is Michigan the class of the conference?  We’ll find out soon.  Next up: @ Notre Dame.
  12. Notre Dame (2-1): The Fighting Irish celebrated their ACC partnership by defeating Sparty on the road.  They return this week to host Big Brother.  Next up: Michigan.
  13. Louisville (3-0): Which Louisville team should be judged–the one that jumped up 35-6 against UNC or the one that narrowly won?  No idea either.  Next up: Florida International
  14. Stanford (3-0): With another win over USC, Stanford moves up into the top 15.  No Gerhart, no Luck, no matter.  Next up: @ Washington.
  15. Florida (3-0): The Gators may or may not be “back,” but they are 2-0 in conference.  A win at Tennessee is always nice.  Next up: Kentucky.
  16. Texas (3-0). Next up: @ Oklahoma State.
  17. USC (2-1). Next up: California.
  18. Ohio State (3-0).  Next up: UAB.
  19. TCU (3-0).  Next up: Virginia.
  20. Michigan State (2-1). Next up: E. Michigan.
  21. UCLA (3-0). Next up: Oregon State.
  22. Northwestern (3-0). Next up: South Dakota.
  23. Arizona (3-0).  Next up: @ Oregon.
  24. Mississippi State (3-0).  Next up: South Alabama.
  25. Virginia Tech (2-1). Next up: Bowling Green.

* * *

121.  Kentucky (1-2).  Losing to a Sun Belt program?  SEC teams should not lose to Sun Belt programs.  What are you doing with all that TV revenue and basketball gate cash???

122. Arkansas (1-2).  Wow… 52-0 to Alabama AT HOME?  A week after dropping a game to an FCS foe?  Arkansas is in trouble right now.  Big time.

123. Kansas (1-2).  While Kansas played well against TCU, all things considered, they are still 1-2 and the teams behind them both won.

124.  Colorado (0-3).  There is only one team in all of the BCS conferences that is winless.  It’s Colorado.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,

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