The Confidential

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25 Nov 2011

A Lot of ACC Hoops Today…

If you are an ACC fan, you are likely a basketball fan, which makes today a GREAT day for you.  There are games all day, from 2:30 pm to 10:00 p.m.

The early games:

  • Virginia Tech plays Oklahoma State in the consolation game of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  Oklahoma State did not show up in its matchup against Stanford; however, Virginia Tech played quite well against Syracuse before ultimately falling.  This would be a huge statement game for Virginia Tech.  2:30 p.m.
  • Miami at Mississippi.  Miami is 4-0 on the year.  A win at Mississippi would add a good road loss to the resume.  4:00 p.m.
  • Harvard at Florida State.  Both teams are undefeated.  Tommy Amaker has some great recruiting classes coming in, but they are not there yet.  Still, this is a game that Harvard will really need if it is on the bubble again this year.  Florida State will need to bring its A game to hold them off.   4:30 p.m.
  • Cal-Riverside at Boston College.  Boston College has been terrible this year.  One of these 1-3 teams will get to 2-3.  If it’s not Boston College…who will this team ever be able to beat?  5:00 p.m.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Future ACC member Syracuse puts its 5-0 record on the line against Stanford, who is also 5-0.  This game is for the championship of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  For Syracuse, playing in Madison Square Garden is nothing new.  For Stanford, they destroyed Oklahoma State there on Wednesday and certainly would love a long plane ride home with the trophy.  Tipoff is at 5:00 p.m.

The 7:00 p.m. games:

  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh travels to Philadelphia to play Penn at the Palestra.  Pitt was a preseason top 10 team and cannot afford to lose another OOC game.  Penn always comes to play against big time opponents.
  • Elon at North Carolina State.  Fresh off a nice win over Texas, North Carolina State needs to take care of business here and get to 5-1.
  • Furman at Clemson.  Furman has the better record right now.  Think about that for a moment.  All games of this ilk are must-wins for the home team.  This one certainly qualifies for a disappointing Clemson team.
  • Florida Gulf Coast at Maryland.  Maryland has been awful this year.  They need to rebound from their 26-point loss to Iona by beating an overmatched, 2-3 team.  If not?  Shudder.
  • Green Bay at Virginia.  The Packers look outstanding in beating the Lions yesterday.  Wait, what?  At 4-1, Virginia needs to keep beating the beatable opponents.  Wisconsin-Green Bay certainly qualifies.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Wake Forest vs. Arizona State in the Old Spice Invitational.  Although Arizona State is only 1-3, this is the sole evening matchup between two major schools.  These two teams play in the consolidation game, while Dayton-Fairfield play for the Championship.  Who saw that coming?  Yes… this is a featured game by default.

The late game:

  • North Carolina vs. South Carolina in the Las Vegas Invitational.  Some decent names in this tournament, including USC and UNLV.  But nothing that this North Carolina team is expected to lose to.  The expectations are THAT high for this team.  Anything short of a 20-point win and there will be whispers.  This is the negative part about being #1, of course.  Game starts at 10:00 p.m. EST, give or take.

What a day… all these basketball games, with ample football sprinkled in too.  Enjoy!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
24 Nov 2011

Duke Wins Maui Invitational

With all the well-deserved press that North Carolina is receiving this year, Duke seems to be flying under the radar.   That may change soon, as Duke is now 7-0 after beating top 15 Kansas to win the Maui Invitational by a score of 68-61. In fact, Duke has now beaten Michigan State, Tennessee, Michigan, and Kansas on the early season.  Few teams have faced that many challenging opponents.  It appears that Duke has reloaded again and is very much deserving of being considered among the elite this year.

For Duke, the challenge against Kansas was the size disadvantage.  Not surprisingly, Kansas’s front line won the rebounding battle, albeit only by 5.  In fact, Duke was able to snare 11 offensive rebounds.  The difference was that Duke’s superior athleticism forced 17 turnovers.  Kansas simply could not recover from that many self-inflicted wounds.  In a rather amazing stat, Kansas forward Tyshawn Taylor had 11 turnovers.  That will have to be corrected in order for Kansas to generate a top 4 seed in March.

Duke was led by Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee, who each scored 17 points.  But the brightest star against Kansas was sophomore Tyler Thornton, who hit two giant three-point shots down the stretch to give Duke this win.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , ,
24 Nov 2011

First ACC Game of the Year–Syracuse 69, Virginia Tech 58

OK, not really.  But in a few years this will be an ACC game!  In any event, while it is admirable that Syracuse won (again), it is also impressive that Virginia Tech hung with Syracuse so well.  In fact, Virginia Tech was leading at the half 29-27.  Not many teams are going to hold this Syracuse team to 27 points in any half.  Although Syracuse ultimately pulled out the win 69-58, both teams can take good things from this game.

For Syracuse, the Orange showed that they can win a game where they do not dictate tempo.  Virginia Tech fully intended to slow the game down and, for the most part, succeeded.  Syracuse was averaging 90 points per game, but scored only 69 points overall.  Syracuse showed that they can play tough defense, get the key rebounds, and score without transition baskets.

For Virginia Tech, the Hokies showed that they will be no pushover in the ACC.  They were able to dictate tempo against the more athletic and deeper Syracuse team.  They were only outrebounded by 5.  Syracuse did not get to the free throw line much–as Virginia Tech was able to play tough without fouling.

Ultimately, it was the combination of Syracuse’s defense and Virginia Tech’s turnovers that led to the Syracuse win.  Virginia Tech had 15 turnovers to go along with 15 assists.  Syracuse had an outstanding 17-8 assist to turnover ratio.  Part of what took down Syracuse was self-inflicted mistakes.  So far, 2011-2012 has shown great improvement.

On an individual basis, Virginia Tech has to be pleased that Dorenzo Hudson, Erick Green, and Jerell Eddie rose to the occasion, scoring 44 of the team’s 58 points.  However, the rest of the team contributed little.  Notably, freshman Dorian Finney-Smith never really got on track, scoring only 2 points.  He did lead the team with 7 rebounds.

For Syracuse, the starters contributed a great percentage of points than they had all year.  Kris Joseph and Brandon Triche scored 20 and 18 points, respectively.  Supersubs CJ Fair and Dion Waiters chipped in another 23.  Also impressive was Fab Melo, who looks to be ready to live up to the hype this year.  He had 5 blocked shots.

The Hokies will face Oklahoma State on Friday afternoon in the consolation game.  Syracuse will face Stanford for the Championship of the NIT Season Tipoff.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , ,
23 Nov 2011

ACC Football Predictions for November 25-26, 2011

After a 4-3 week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Miami (6-5) hosting Boston College (3-8)

Give it up for Boston College.  They have shown some reason for optimism.  The team did not quit on its coach.  While we are at it, give it up for Miami too.  The self-imposed bowl ban was an absolutely wise decision.  Better to take that now than have it imposed during a great season.  As it is, this game becomes the “bowl game” for both teams.  BC gets to go to Miami.  Miami gets to go to, uh, Miami.  So that’s nice.  Prediction: Miami 17-Boston College 10.

Georgia Tech (8-3) hosting Georgia (9-2)

Two heavyweights in the ACC and SEC battle it out in a rivalry game.  And, by heavyweights, The Confidential means “fourth best teams.”  Georgia has come a long way since 0 and 2.  Along the way, its best win was a 45-7 drubbing of Auburn.  Well, Georgia Tech beat Clemson who beat Auburn.  Applying never-wrong transitive property logic, this would make Georgia Tech way better than Georgia.  The transitive property fails more often than not.  Prediction: Georgia 33-Georgia Tech 24.

North Carolina (6-5) hosting Duke (3-8)

Dick Vitale would love this game, baby!  But, for the rest of us, this is a game featuring an underwhelming North Carolina team and a surprisingly good in losing Duke team.  You know what they say about rivalry games–throw the records away.  Well, that’s going a bit far for this game.  Prediction: North Carolina 21-Duke 14.

North Carolina State (6-5) hosting Maryland (2-9)

Maryland’s season is spiraling out of control.  There is no ACC opponent that would not get a prediction of a win against them. Prediction: NC State 28-Maryland 13.

Wake Forest (6-5) hosting Vanderbilt (5-6)

Both of these teams are on the upswing.  Wake Forest could easily be 8-3.  Vandy is showing signs of being ready for primetime under its new coach.  This is a tough game to predict as Vandy really needs a win.  Still, this is a Wake Forest team that is due for a break or two.  Wake Forest 28-Vandy 24.

Florida (6-5) hosting Florida State (7-4)

This game should be the Game of the Week every year.  What is going on down in Florida?  This never would have happened in the 1990s.  Frankly, it is not clear that this game will have any interest outside the region.  These two teams have given us every reason to suspect that they will lose.  But we have to pick a winner.  So…. Prediction: Florida State 27-Florida 23.  

South Carolina (9-2) hosting Clemson (9-2)

This game should be the Game of the Week this week.  But Clemson had to go and lose.  And South Carolina is really not playing for anything either.  All they have left to play for is supremacy in the state.  That’s all.  A bitter, rivalry game between two foes that hate each other.  Prediction: Clemson 26-South Carolina 20.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Virginia (8-3) hosting Virginia Tech (10-1).  This one is for all the marbles.  At least the Virginia marbles.  Oh, and the winner gets to play Clemson for the right to go to a BCS game.  Virginia is a few years ahead of schedule in the rebuilding process.  Virginia Tech has been a bit underwhelming for a 10-1 team, as crazy as that feels to write.  Virginia is at home and coming together as a team.  Tempting to go with Virginia, but the gut says that Virginia Tech puts it together for this game:  Prediction: Virginia Tech 24-Virginia 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
22 Nov 2011
1 Comment

Latest on Syracuse’s Bernie Fine

The Confidential opined that Jim Boeheim may have been making a mistake in putting his neck on the line for Bernie Fine.   The premise of that was NOT that Jim Boeheim was a bad boss or a bad friend.  Quite the contrary, his support for Bernie Fine makes him an outstanding boss and friend.  He’s the guy you want in an alley with you.  He’s the guy you want in your foxhole.

The problem is that his public announcements went beyond merely responding to the one fact regarding him and, instead, interjected himself into the story.  He called the accusers liars.  No real gray area there.

To extricate himself would require some sort of “proof” that these allegations against Fine were false.  Proving a negative is always difficult.  Proving a negative from 20 years ago is more so.  Proving a negative in the absence of a venue is next to impossible.  At present, the only venue is the venue of public opinion.  Fortunately for Syracuse and Boeheim, the public seems generally tired from all the awful news that arose out of the Penn State scandal.  And the Syracuse situation comes nowhere near the Penn State situation.  But that does not make this issue a “clean” one.

Quite the contrary.  Right now, the Syracuse Police Department is in a battle with the District Attorney to see who can deflect attention away from its own possible failings quick enough.  The District Attorney is up in arms that he was never alerted about this years ago.  The District Attorney wants the police records–even to the point of obtaining a subpoena.  This does not sound like a team environment.  The Syracuse Police Department may or may not be behind a leak that one of the accuser’s ex-girlfriends reported this incident to the District Attorney’s right-hand man.  The call was never returned.  All one can say is, be careful what you wish for, Mr. District Attorney.

Frankly, for all we know, nobody ever called anyone!  But, in their zeal to cover their own butts, the Syracuse law enforcement team has decided that the best way to CYA is by shifting the blame onto its partner in stopping crime.  Good luck with that.  Meanwhile, the accusers, Bernie Fine, Jim Boeheim, and Syracuse University, all sit in the middle of this unexpected battle.  It’s kind of hard for anyone to strengthen and support their position when “law and order” are so busy trying to disappear from the scene of this accident (that may or may not have occurred).

For the accusers, this mess adds to their position.  Competing claims of incompetence by law enforcement officials bolster the claim that nobody took the accusations seriously enough.  More importantly, this debacle is keeping the issue in the news.  If this is about notoriety, mission accomplished.

This, of course, is the opposite of what Fine, Boeheim, and Syracuse want.  Their preference would be for this to shift out of the limelight for somewhere between “a while” and “forever.”

Look… nobody knows the truth.  For all the character witnesses supporting Fine, he may have done some or all of the things alleged.  For all the knee-jerk desire to assume that a human being would not have invented these serious allegations, this is a sick world sometimes.  Worse yet, there is nowhere for anyone to find “hope.”  Whoever is telling the truth, we are not going to like the result.

But, at this stage, determining what “the truth” is seems like wishful thinking.  There are too many questions to be investigated and resolved, and there is an emerging concern that there is little reason to have faith in those doing the investigating.  The bottom line is that this is not going anywhere fast.  Jim Boeheim valiantly stood up for his colleague and friend.  Hopefully, he has a chair nearby.  This may not ending anytime soon.

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Uncategorized and tagged , , , ,
22 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: November 22, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of November 22, 2011:

1.  North Carolina–Despite only being 3-0, North Carolina has not shown anything that would cause them to drop from #1.

Looking forward to: Wisconsin on November 30; Kentucky on December 3.

2. Syracuse–At 4-0, and weathering the storm of the Bernie Fine scandal, this Syracuse team is winning in style.  Not many teams have a bench that outscores its starters.  Syracuse does.

Looking forward to: Virginia Tech on November 23; November 25 against Stanford or Oklahoma State;

3. Duke–At 5-0, with a win over Michigan State, Duke has a legitimate claim to be #1 or #2.  But North Carolina disposed of Michigan State a little more effectively.  And Syracuse has done nothing to deserve a drop from #2.

Looking forward to: Ohio State on November 29; Washington on December 10.

4. Florida State–At 4-0, Florida State has not beaten anyone.  However, unlike Pitt, they have not lost to an inferior foe.  Edge to the Seminoles.

Looking forward to: Michigan State on November 30; Florida on December 22.

5. Pittsburgh–Could have dropped the Panthers lower after that home loss to Long Beach State.  Time will tell.

Looking forward to: Tennessee on December 3; Oklahoma State on December 10.

6. Virginia Tech–Haven’t played anyone yet.  That will change soon as they face Syracuse in Madison Square Garden.

Looking forward to: Syracuse on November 23; November 25 against Stanford or Oklahoma State.

7.  North Carolina State– Losing to Vanderbilt is decent, the win over Texas moves the Wolfpack ahead of Wake Forest and Miami.

Looking forward to: Stanford on December 4; Syracuse on December 17.

8. Wake Forest– At 3-0, the Demon Deacons have yet to be tested.  Not much on the plate soon either.

Looking forward to: the conference schedule?

9.  Miami– At 3-0, the win over Rutgers is nice.  The schedule gets tougher–giving Miami a chance to leapfrog a few teams.

Looking forward to: Purdue on November 29; Memphis on December 6.

10. Virginia–at 4-1, the Cavaliers have no quality wins.  They also have a bad loss to TCU.

Looking forward to: Michigan on November 29; George Mason on December 6.

11. Georgia Tech–at 3-2, Georgia Tech doesn’t have a horrible loss yet.  St. Josephs and LSU are not exactly bottom 100 teams. Still, those are winnable games.

Looking forward to: Northwestern on November 29; Georgia on December 7.

12. Clemson– well, someone had to be #12.  Clemson’s loss to Charleston is inexplicable.  No good wins.  But that’s still better than #13 and #14.

Looking forward to: Iowa on November 29; Arizona on December 10.

13. Maryland– losing to Alabama is reasonable. Losing to Iona is not.  Losing by 26 is just terrible.

Looking forward to: Florida Gulf Coast on November 25.  This team cannot look forward to anyone.

14. Boston College– Wow.  Losing to Holy Cross is bad.  Losing to UMass is bad.  Losing by 22 to Holy Cross is awful.  Losing by 36 to UMass is incredible.

Looking forward to: St. Louis on November 24.  This team doesn’t deserve any pumpkin pie.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
22 Nov 2011
1 Comment

ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 22, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson may have defeated Virginia Tech once, but Clemson has lost twice.  Virginia Tech has to avenge that loss and beat a very game Virginia team this week.  West Virginia is the class of the Big East.

ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. Georgia.   

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Washington.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Louisville.

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v Florida

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v San Diego State

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina State v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
21 Nov 2011

The Confidential College Basketball Top 25: November 21, 2011

With college basketball heating up, here is The Confidential’s Top 25  as of November 21, 2011

1.  North Carolina–absolutely no reason to move down

2. Ohio State–they beat Florida–a very impressive win.

3. Kentucky–an impressive win over Kansas, close on Ohio State

4. Syracuse–distractions aside, Syracuse has been dominant so far

5. UConn–like Syracuse, not tested yet.  Great start though.

6. Duke–with 903 behind Coach K, the team can concentrate on improving week-to-week.

7. Memphis–only 1-0?  Schedule some games already!  Huge game against Michigan coming up.

8. Louisville–win over Butler is nice.  Still, that’s not your Butler from the past few years.

9. Florida–losing to Ohio Sate is not the end of the world.

10. Baylor–nice win over San Diego State.

11. Alabama–wins over Maryland and Purdue already.

12. Kansas–loss to Kentucky is not the end of the world either.

13. Xavier

14. Gonzaga

15. Florida State

16. Michigan

17. Pittsburgh

18. Cincinnati

19. Missouri

20. Marquette

21.  Wisconsin

22. California

23. Villanova

24. Virginia Tech

25. Michigan State (nobody started tougher than the Spartans)

If we are nuts, feel free to tell us.  Sadly, the Internet will store this for future mocking down the road.  But that’s how we see it, as of today.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
21 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 21, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 21, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–At 10-1, Virginia Tech has to slide ahead of 9-2 Clemson, despite the head-to-head result.  The Hokies have simply played better since that game.

2. Clemson–Had the Tigers lost in overtime, maybe they would have stuck at #1.  But Clemson had played with fire for too long to allow the head-to-head result keep them at #1.

3. Virginia--London has done a great job with this team.  Given that Virginia has beaten Georgia Tech, the nod goes to Virginia.  Huge game this week against rival Va Tech.

4. Georgia Tech–At 8-3, the Yellow Jackets have the advantage over 7-4 Florida State.  However, this may not last beyond the upcoming game against Georgia.

5. Florida State–Inexplicable collapse against Virginia.  Florida State certainly plays a tough schedule, but a few too many losses to get the benefit of the doubt.

6. Miami–the Florida tour continued with a win–albeit not entirely impressive offensively–over South Florida.  The Hurricanes are skipping a bowl this year, making this week’s game against Boston College the finale.

7 (tie). Wake Forest, North Carolina, North Carolina State– At 6-5, these teams are simply not distinguishable.  Perhaps this week will help clarify things.

10.  Pittsburgh–did not play this week, but gets the edge over reeling Syracuse.  Huge game this week against West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl.

11.  Syracuse–did not play this week, but managed to lose its starting free safety to suspension.  The Orange get injured Cincy this week, before Pitt next week.

12.  Duke—Played Georgia Tech tough.  Duke is far from an easy win for anyone. The Blue Devils still get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–played Notre Dame very tough before falling.  Despite the record, Boston College finished pretty strong.

14. Maryland–has this team quit on its coach?  Does anyone even care?  Poor Maryland.


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
20 Nov 2011
1 Comment

Hurricanes Not Bowling This Year

In a very non-shocking announcement, the Miami Hurricanes have stated that they will not participate in a bowl game this year.  In self-imposing a ban, Miami gets a head start on the NCAA, which is likely to impose some sort of restrictions based on the Nevin Shapiro scandal.

This move is logical.  With 5 losses, Miami was likely headed to one of those break-even bowl games–where you just hope to break even as an institution by attending.  While Al Golden could certainly use the extra practices, it would be unsavory for Miami to gain this benefit when it is quite certain that there will be penalties coming.  Miami is improving, but is not likely to be BCS bound anytime soon.  Unfortunately, the school is looking at several seasons where they will not be atop the standings.

It will be interesting to see if other schools follow suit.  Ohio State is likely to face NCAA sanctions.  And, of course, Penn State has had some issues that call into question whether a bowl will even want the Nittany Lions.  Add in the fact that many conference are going to meet or exceed their bowl allotments this year and there is little need for these programs to go bowling.  Each conference will still be able to meet its obligations.  In fact, if Purdue beats Indiana, they will get 10 teams eligible–enough to have two teams in BCS bowls.

The ACC is similarly not concerned with filling its bowl allotment.  With Clemson’s loss, the odds of getting two BCS teams diminished significantly.  The ACC will be fine.

This move is certainly disappointing to the Hurricane players and fans.  But they need to understand that self-imposed penalties go a long way towards demonstrating institutional control.  As it is fairly clear that Miami lost that along the way, now is the time to start proving to the NCAA that it is regaining it.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,

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