The Confidential

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20 Nov 2011
2 Comments

Post-Games Review of the ACC Football Predictions for this Past Week

ANYONE can make predictions… few are willing to face the music afterwards.  The Confidential turns directly towards the orchestra… and faces the fact that picking chalk in November is a dangerous game.  A woeful performance.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

The Confidential started the week strong.  Sure, the margin was off significantly as Va Tech’s 24-7 lead was narrowed to a final of 24-21.  But the Hokies took care of business, as they were supposed to.  The Hokies control their own destiny now–they are two wins away from a BCS game.

Prediction: Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

The Hokies took care of business, but Clemson did not show up.  The score was actually close, but it was a Wolfpack blowout instead, as NC State defeated Clemson 37-13.  Any lingering shred of Clemson making it to the title game against LSU evaporated in less than 24 hours.  Losing narrowly, as several top 10 teams did, would have been bad enough. 

Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17

Georgia Tech also took care of business.  More surprising, however, is that Duke’s offense was able to put up 31 points on Georgia Tech.  But, again, at one point the score was 31-17.  Ultimately, the Blue Devils rallied but came up short in a 38-31 loss.  With the win, Georgia Tech moved to 8-3.

Prediction: Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

When The Confidential is on, the Confidential is on.  Prediction the win over collapsing Maryland was not hard.  But Wake Forest beat Maryland 31-10, making this an almost perfect prediction.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

While Maryland is busy collapsing, Boston College is busy showing that it has life.  The Eagles’ defense came to play against Notre Dame, holding them to 16 points.  Unfortunately, the offense did about what was expected–only putting up 14 points.  In the end, that makes this a Notre Dame win, 16-14.

Prediction: South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

The Confidential had expected these teams to play football.  Instead, they played international football–what we know as soccer.  How else to explain a 6-3 final score in a 60 minute college football game?  Kudos to Miami for being the Florida team to win and become bowl eligible.  Al Golden is doing good things in Miami.

Prediction: Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

Wow.  One of the most amazing finishes to a football game that anyone will ever see.  And not because of good things.  First, Florida State throws an ill-advised pass to the sideline–but not out-of-bounds–that allows time to run out before a FG can be attempted.  Second, after review determines that the pass was incomplete (a correct ruling, by the way), Florida State gets to try that field goal.  Third, as they are lining up for the field goal, the offensive line moves.  Fourth, the referees rule that the Virginia defensive line caused them to move–meaning the kick moves five yards closer.  At that point, it was as if both teams were trying to lose.  Fifth, and finally, Florida State “won” the battle of the quest to lose by missing the field goal.  Final score–Virginia 14, Florida State 13.

Final tally: The Confidential missed 3 games (NC State, Virginia, Miami).  That’s a 4-3 result.  Not nearly good enough.


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Nov 2011
1 Comment

Clemson Wastes Opportunity, Falls to North Carolina State

Earlier today, The Confidential noted that the Oklahoma State loss could be a boon for the ACC, including the potential–however slim–in playing LSU for the national title.  Sure, several things would have to go the ACC’s way, but that all became moot when Clemson decided not to show up at North Carolina State, losing 37-13.  Well, so much for that.

I suppose it is possible for Virginia Tech to once again carry the banner for the ACC.  If Virginia Tech can beat Virginia and then win its rematch against Clemson, then it would represent the ACC in a BCS bowl with a 12-1 record.  In fact, Va Tech would probably be ranked in the top 5 in the BCS standings at that point.  But Virginia Tech just doesn’t have the same opportunity as Clemson to put together an elite body of work.  Clemson was the ACC’s best hope for a national title opportunity.  Very disappointing.

Of course, the way Clemson played today, there is little reason to suspect that Clemson would have acquitted itself well against LSU.  It is one thing to lose on a missed field goal (Boise State, Oklahoma State) or in overtime (Alabama, Oklahoma State).  It is another to get drubbed by 24 against a team that just lost to Boston College.  The Georgia Tech loss was bad enough.

The question that begs is when–nay, whether–the ACC is going to start being merely “better than the Big East” in football.  The Confidential remains persuaded that only Florida State and Miami have the program dynamics to allow an ACC team to compete with the big boys, such as Alabama and LSU.  Of course, the big boys just a few years ago were Ohio State and Texas.  They have fallen on hard times recently.  And before that, Tennessee, Michigan and USC were big boys.  It appears that college football has become a sport of mini-dynasties with cycles.  Perhaps an ACC team break through and rise to that level.

For now, it remains more of the same.  The ACC rarely embarrasses itself on the football field.  However, it just isn’t doing enough to get anyone to notice, much less care.  Clemson could have changed that this year.  That chance ended today.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
19 Nov 2011
2 Comments

Oklahoma St. Loss Opens Door For ACC

While not an Atlantic Coast Conference game, the ACC was greatly benefited by the result of last night’s Oklahoma State-Iowa State game.  As you likely know by now, the #2 Cowboys were upset by Iowa St. in double overtime, 37-31.  Oklahoma State was not merely #2 in the polls, it was #2 in the BCS standings.  So this loss has ramifications well beyond the programs involved.

Right now, LSU is the only school that controls its own destiny.  It has games against Mississippi, Arkansas, and in the SEC title game.  If it wins out, it will play for the national title. After LSU, there are a bunch of one loss schools that are hoping to win out and also play in that game:

  • Oklahoma State.  With a loss to Iowa State–even in overtime–one has to think that Oklahoma State is out of the mix.  Iowa State is not the type of loss that will impress the pollsters.  In addition, they have yet to play Oklahoma.  Also, the Big XII does not have a title game this year.  So it is doubtful that Oklahoma State can get back into the mix.
  • Oklahoma is actually sitting in a better position than Oklahoma State.  At #5 in the BCS standings, Oklahoma has games against Baylor, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State.  They also defeated Florida State on the road.  If Oklahoma wins out, they only have to move up a few spots in the BCS standings.  Finally, Oklahoma is the type of school that pollsters would love to see play LSU.
  • Alabama and Oregon are interesting options.  They sit about Oklahoma and would certainly seem to have first crack at LSU.  The problem here is that both have already lost to LSU.  It is doubtful that the pollsters have any great zeal to vote for a rematch in the national title game.  If there is no choice–so be it.  Not helping either school’s cause is a relatively weak closing schedule.
  • Arkansas is interesting.  At #6 in the BCS standings, they can throw a wrench into everyone’s plans.  After Mississippi St., they play LSU.  Arkansas’s only loss is to Alabama.  So if Arkansas beats LSU, that means that a perfect 1-1 round robin of victories between the three schools confuses the BCS standings.  However, if LSU loses, the chaos will be at maximum power.  This whole exercise is to see who would play LSU.  So we have to assume that Arkansas loses to LSU to even begin to predict how this plays out.  So that eliminates Arkansas.

Once you get past those five schools, the next two in the BCS rankings are Clemson and Virginia Tech.  If all of these schools win out, here is what the BCS standings should be going into the final week: (1) LSU, (2) Oregon, (3) Alabama, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Clemson, (6) Virginia Tech, (7) Oklahoma State, and (8) Arkansas.

Oregon’s championship game will be against a team with no more than 8 wins.  That is not likely to help their cause.

Alabama and Arkansas will not play.  Instead, LSU would face Georgia.  Again, it has to be assumed that LSU will win out. The bottom line is that Alabama and Arkansas will be deprived of an opportunity to play that all-important one more game.

Although it will not be a conference game, Oklahoma will play Oklahoma State.  Assuming Oklahoma wins, that would be a good win for them.

Clemson will play Virginia Tech, with both sitting at 11-1.

If that situation unfolds, it is not difficult to envision the ACC champion at 12-1 moving past Oklahoma and Oregon.  This is especially true if Clemson is the team that wins out.  Compare the wins by the various teams:

  • If Clemson wins the ACC title at 12-1: Florida State, Virginia Tech (twice), Auburn, and South Carolina.
  • If Oklahoma wins out: Florida State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
  • If Oregon wins out: Stanford, USC
  • If Alabama wins out: Arkansas, Penn State, Auburn
  • If Virginia Tech wins out: Clemson (split), Virginia

If you go by great wins, Clemson looks pretty good.  If a voter really parses out the schedules, it should come down to Oklahoma or Clemson battling to see who plays LSU.  Either game would draw national interest–maximized further by avoiding a rematch–and feature top-notch 12-1 teams.

Will we get there?  Who knows?  But Clemson has the ability to take advantage of this loss and inject themselves back into the national title picture.  And that is good news for the ACC.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , ,
18 Nov 2011
4 Comments

The Next Day: Jim Boeheim Continues “All-In” Strategy

With a police investigation just beginning into the accusations of molestation levied against Bernie Fine, Jim Boeheim has ramped up his “all-in” strategy.  While at least one Syracuse blog has posited that it is ESPN that is playing “a dangerous game,” The Confidential thinks otherwise.  Instead, the Confidential believes that it is Jim Boeheim that is playing the dangerous game here.  A very dangerous game.

In fact, there is nothing unequivocal about Jim Boeheim’s statements in this matter.  He is 100% behind Fine.  He is 100% against the accusers.  As reported by Syracuse.com, Boeheim has said:

“This is alleged to have occurred … what?” Boeheim asked late Thursday night. “Twenty years ago? Am I in the right neighborhood? It might be 26 years ago? So, we are supposed to what? Stop the presses 26 years later? For a false allegation? For what I absolutely believe is a false allegation? I know he’s lying about me seeing him in his hotel room. That’s a lie. If he’s going to tell one lie, I’m sure there’s a few more of them.”

Boeheim was speaking of Bobby Davis, the 39-year-old man who has declared that Fine, SU’s assistant basketball coach for 36 seasons, molested him on hundreds of occasions over a period of some 15 years beginning when Davis was 12 or 13. Specifically, Boeheim was referencing the charge by Davis that he, Boeheim, had seen Davis on multiple occasions in Fine’s hotel room on Orange basketball road trips.

“I never have been in Bernie Fine’s hotel room in my life,” Boeheim said. “This is what, 16 to 18 years ago, or whatever it is? But I don’t recall ever walking into any of my assistant coaches’ rooms. Now, could I have once … one time? I have a pretty good recollection of things, but I don’t ever recollect ever walking into Bernie Fine’s hotel room. Ever.”

Boeheim did admit that Davis, who lived in Fine’s basement for a while as a teen and served for a time as an Orange ball boy, did periodically travel with the SU basketball team. But, Boeheim offered, Davis traveled for a practical reason.

“I know Bobby,” Boeheim said. “He was one of 300 ball boys we’ve had. This kid ended up being a babysitter for Bernie. He babysat Bernie’s kids. That’s why he was on the trips. He’d babysit. The kid only traveled, to my knowledge, if he was babysitting Bernie’s kids. This is when he was 18 years old. He was helping to babysit the kids. That’s the only time I know about, from talking with Bernie.”

Asked what Davis’ possible motivation would be to tell his disturbing story at this time, Boeheim hesitated not at all.

“Here’s why,” he said. “The Penn State thing came out and the kid behind this is trying to get money. He’s tried before. And now he’s trying again. If he gets this, he’s going to sue the university and Bernie. What do you think is going to happen at Penn State? You know how much money is going to be involved in civil suits? I’d say about $50 million. That’s what this is about. Money.”

No middle-ground here at all.  Boeheim is calling the accuser a liar and providing a motive.

As a preliminary matter, as it relates to the singular question of whether Bernie Fine had inappropriate contact with two minors, there are only two possibilities.  The first possibility is that the victims’ accusations are untrue.  The second possibility is that Bernie Fine’s denial is untrue.  What else is there?

Suppose the victims’ accusations are untrue.  Who is going to make that determination?  A jury found OJ Simpson to be not guilty of murder, but a fair number of people deemed that to be an incorrect verdict.  Strictly speaking, the jury only made the conclusion that he was not guilty “beyond a reasonable doubt.”  So maybe they were 80% sure he was guilty, but did not think that 80% guilty met the standard.  If a jury finds Bernie Fine not guilty, will the public be satisfied with that conclusion?  Or will there be the backlash: “sure, a Syracuse jury did not find the coach innocent…must have been a kangaroo court.”

The same goes for a decision by the police or prosecutor not to press charges.  It is unclear whether any outsiders will truly give due credit to such a determination made by local authorities.  So there may continue to be a sense of doubt.

In the best case scenario for Bernie Fine, not only do the police not press charges against him, the police press charges against the accusers for making a false allegation.  That would be the type of message that suggests that not only is Bernie Fine innocent, but the evidence suggests otherwise.  A similar scenario would be if the accusers were charged with conspiracy.  Such a scenario could arise if one accuser decides to come clean that it is a false allegation.

Short of that, it is difficult to envision a situation where this issue is resolved without some lingering doubt.  This means that, even within the “untrue” side of the equation, there is the possibility of Boeheim having miscalculated in his zeal.  It’s difficult to prove a negative.  This includes “my long-term assistant did not molest anyone.”  You can be confident in his innocence, but that only goes so far.

In contrast, what if the accusations are true?  The unwavering support is honorable; however, unless it is 100% impossible for the allegations to be false–failing to acknowledge the minimal possibility could be very troublesome.  In the circumstance where the accusations are true, Boeheim will have put his reputation fully on the line to defend Bernie Fine only to have that blow up in his face.   The honor in defending his colleague will shift to a valid criticism that he is incapable of making character determinations.  What begs the question–why make the determination at all?

In fact, incorrectly calling someone a liar and accusing them of making up statements for the purpose of money will lead to lawsuits. While Boeheim might have avoided responsibility based on the circumstances of the conduct, false statements might open up a new door of potential liability.

And this will also cause Boeheim to be lumped into the same category as Paterno.  Sure, you don’t believe it can happen.  But you don’t make that decision–you make sure that the police make that decision.  And you don’t interfere with the police making that decision by making public statements putting the weight of your reputation against the accusers.  This could all end very badly for Boeheim.

It is also not clear what would qualify as “truth.”  If the police open an investigation and find other victims, is that enough to be “truth”?  If it goes to a grand jury, is that enough to be “truth”?  If there is an indictment, is that enough to be “truth”?  Or will it take a conviction. An argument could be made that it is “all of the above.” If so, there are many stages where Boeheim will have erred in placing his reputation behind Fine.

There is one more matter here.  Syracuse University issued a statement.  The Chancellor issued a statement.  Unless Boeheim was encouraged to make a statement by the Syracuse legal team, he may have gone against the preferences of that team.  If so, even if Boeheim is right, he may have caused more trouble for his employer.

Boeheim deserves credit for supporting Fine, but he has certainly gone “all in.”  And even if you think you have a great hand, going “all in” is not without its risks.

What do you think?  And not just whether you would respect what Boeheim has done, was it the smart thing to do?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Uncategorized and tagged , , ,
18 Nov 2011

Virginia Tech Holds Off North Carolina: 24-21

Virginia Tech moved one step closer to the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game by defeating visiting North Carolina.  The #8 ranked Hokies jumped out to a 24-7 lead at the end of three quarters and were able to hold on to a narrower  the victory by a final score of  24-21.

With the win, Virginia Tech is in full command of the ACC’s Coastal division.  If Virginia loses to Florida State, which is far from unlikely, Virginia Tech will be assured of a matchup against Clemson for the right to go to the Orange Bowl.  If Clemson wins this week, the potential for a matchup of two 11-1 teams remains alive.

The tough question is whether a disinterested ACC fan should root for Virginia or Florida State:

  • If Virginia wins, this will set up a very exciting Virginia-Virginia Tech matchup to determine who plays Clemson.  Of course, if Virginia wins out, that would mean a 10-3 ACC representative.  But if Virginia Tech beats Virginia, a Clemson-Virginia Tech game could feature two top 10 teams sitting at 11-1.  That would get major national press.
  • Of course, if Florida State wins, the ACC will see one of its football “kings” take another step towards getting back to royalty.  As long as Virginia does not upset Virginia Tech, the ACC would begin to show the nation that it is ready to claim football relevance.

But none of this debate happens if the Hokies had fallen last night.  So, regardless of what happens in the future, the credit must go to Virginia Tech for not losing to North Carolina and keeping this debate alive.  While the game might not have been pretty, the route to a BCS bowl is ordinarily not full of only masterpieces.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , ,
17 Nov 2011
3 Comments

Syracuse Assistant B-Ball Coach Fine Being Investigated for Molestation

Longtime Syracuse University Assistant Basketball Coach Bernie Fine has been placed on administrative leave based on an investigation into possible child molestation.  On the heels of a major scandal at Penn State (as well as an issue at The Citadel), this report hits close to home, as Syracuse University is set to join the ACC in the near future.

While the Penn State and Syracuse situations share the common bond of accusations of molestation against a person associated with the program, it should be noted that there are substantial differences between what is known about the situation at Syracuse and the situation at Penn State.  As the New York Times has reported, Syracuse University conducted its own investigation into these allegations in 2005:

In a statement, the university said that “an adult male” came to them in 2005 and the university started its own four-month investigation into the allegations. The statement said that the university’s legal counsel spoke with people who “the complainant said would support his claims” and that “all of those identified by the complainant denied any wrongful conduct” by Fine. The statement also said that Fine “vehemently denied the allegations.”

In other words, Syracuse investigated after the police declined to investigate.  So this is not a matter of Syracuse not informing the police.  By the time it got to Syracuse, it was post-police.  And Syracuse still investigated.  Syracuse was apparently unable to corroborate the information that the alleged victim said would be corroborated.  The alleged victim suggested that certain witnesses be interviewed and those witnesses did not confirm the accusations.

Significantly, in order for this matter to rise to the level of Penn State, it would require an assistant coach to witness an incident and report it to Jim Boeheim, who would have to then pass the matter upstream and lose interest.  This certainly is not alleged to have happened at Syracuse.  And there is no sense that Jim Boeheim or anyone at Syracuse University was ever presented with enough to conclude that the report was credible. Most importantly, the report is not grand jury findings, but the version of events provided by a 39-year old victim, not under oath at the time.  No third party has deemed them credible yet.

And these are just some of the differences.  Under the circumstances, while there might be a rush to judgment to criticize Syracuse, there should be an equally compelling rush to judgment to not criticize Syracuse.

At least at this early juncture.  There is certainly more to come.

In fact, the Confidential certainly does not want to suggest that the alleged victim is not being truthful.  Only the victim and Fine know for sure.  All that can be hoped for is that any investigation that takes place uncovers the truth–whether it is the alleged victim’s allegations or Fine’s denials.  In the wake of the Penn State situation, it is understandable that this might be the environment that would persuade a victim to feel more comfortable coming forward.  Perhaps the alleged victim is hoping for same.  But nobody really knows.  And in the absence of numerous allegations by victims, as in the Sandusky situation, it is harder to rush to judgment for any side.

Nevertheless, the Confidential does take issue with Jim Boeheim opining on this issue.  He should probably let his University leaders do most of the talking here.  He cannot be objective when it comes to his long-time assistant.  And, from a strategic standpoint, does he really want to go “all in” by taking a position.  A more reasoned approach would have been to at least hedge his bets somewhat.  You never really know anyone.  He may be confident that Fine is innocent.  But can he be 100% sure?   According to ESPN, Boeheim responded strongly to the alleged victim’s statement that Boeheim might have seen him:

“He makes the point that he was around and traveling with the team,” Boeheim said. “Not that I know of. I never saw him. He is quoted — (that) I saw him in the room. I have never been in Bernie Fine’s room in my life. That is an outright lie.”

Yep, that’s going “all in.”  He better be right.

Finally, the Confidential was strong in its criticism of Penn State in opinions such as this, this, and this.   The Confidential will be equally critical if facts come out demonstrating that this is closer to the Penn State situation than it seems right now.  Needless to say, this will be newsworthy for quite some time.  A major university, and its various departments, cannot support child molesters.  They also cannot cover-up instances of child molestation.  But the current “facts” just do not come anywhere close to suggesting that anything of that sort has occurred at Syracuse.

What do you think?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , ,
17 Nov 2011

Maryland Loses–ACC No Longer Undefeated!

After playing 6 nights of games without a loss, the Atlantic Coast Conference suffered its first defeat of the season today–as Maryland was shredded by Alabama, 62-42.  For Maryland, losing to Alabama is not altogether surprising because the Crimson Tide are ranked at #16.  However, the margin of victory was certainly disappointing.

This is particularly true given that neither team was particularly impressive offensively.  As a team, Alabama only made 42.9% of its shots from the field.  Amazingly, they were actually 43.8% on three-point shots.  Just one of those inexplicable statistics that you see in a game.  It defies logic that a team would shoot better from 20 feet than from 0-19 feet. And that is the winning team.

In order to lose to Alabama, Maryland had to shoot a woeful 26.5% from the field and 16.7% from three-point land.  Even the charity stripe was not so charitable, as Maryland converted only 56% of its 25 free throws.  All in all, it is plainly apparent why they only managed 42 points.

At least some credit goes to Alabama though.  After three games, he Crimson Tide have held their opponents to a mere 143 points (46 PPG).

The upshot of this result is that the ACC had finally suffered its first loss of the season.  It can take pride in lasting as long as it did.  And the conference still has a ways to go to catch up to the rest of the major conferences.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , ,
17 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Recap: Games of November 16, 2011

The ACC was undefeated on the season heading into the games of November 16, 2011.  The Confidential analyzed same at length.  Now it is debatable whether the ACC remains undefeated.

To be sure, the 12 teams currently in the ACC are undefeated at 26-0.  However, we have waffled as to whether to include the future teams, Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  With all the conference realignment, schools and conferences should be looking out for long-term interests, not the present.

And then Pitt had to go and lose to Long Beach State last night, 86-76.  In fact, CBS reports as follows regarding Pitt’s dominance at home in recent years:

Casper Ware scored a career-high 28 points, James Ennis added 19, and Larry Anderson had 12 points and seven assists for the 49ers (2-0), who emphatically ended Pitt’s 58-game nonconference home winning streak.

* * *

Pitt drew within six points on a few occasions but each time the 49ers answered to become the first non-Big East team to beat the Panthers at home since Bucknell in 2005.

* * *

Pitt came in unbeaten in 80 home nonconference games in November and December at “the Pete.”

In fact, the article did not even bother to analyze just how dominant Pitt has been at the Petersen Events Center in conference games.  Few Big East schools have been successful in that venue.  All in all, a very impressive win for Long Beach State.  Conversely, Pitt’s top 10 ranking is now seriously in jeopardy.

As noted above, the current ACC teams “held serve” though:

  • North Carolina State moved to 3-0 by holding off always-pesky Princeton, 60-58.  NC State held Princeton to under 40% from the field and outrebounded the Tigers 40-24.  And yet they trailed at the half and won by 2 points.  Still, a win is a win.
  • Florida State also moved to 3-0, defeating visiting Stetson, 79-66.  The Confidential predicted good things from Florida State this year.  Taking care of business in November is a great way to start.
  • In other games, Wake Forest moved to 2-0 by beating Georgia Southern, 81-72.  And Clemson defeated The Citadel by a comfortable 73-50 margin.

With these four wins, the ACC remains the only conference whose current teams are undefeated.  With Pitt’s loss, the Big East drops to 33-3.  The Big XII and the Big 10 still have only two conference losses.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , ,
16 Nov 2011
2 Comments

ACC Still Undefeated in Basketball!

After five full days of college basketball, the Atlantic Coast Conference remains undefeated.  2011-2012 is off to an outstanding start.

The Confidential readily acknowledges that this trend is not going to continue.  In fact, no single team has gone undefeated in nearly 35 years.  So the idea of multiple teams going undefeated is unlikely, much less anyone from the same conference. In fact, it is impossible for two teams in the same conference to go undefeated–they all play each other at least once.  At least until the Big East expands to 90 teams.

However worthless this trend might be, it nevertheless gives ACC some early bragging rights over the rest of the basketball landscape.  Consider that the ACC is currently 22-0.  If you include Pittsburgh and Syracuse, that surges to 27-0.

How do the other conferences compare to the ACC this year?  Nobody else is undefeated.  Nobody else even has one loss.  Check it out:

  • The Big East claims to have the best basketball in the land.  Off to a 31-2 start (including Syracuse and Pitt).  Sure, they can blame one of those losses on West Virginia, who is more interested in suing the Big East than representing it.  But Rutgers lost to Miami.  Game.  Set.  Match.
  • The Big XII?  With Kansas, some claim that this is the best basketball in the land.  17-2.  Kansas lost to Kentucky.  And Iowa State lost to someone.  Feel free to look up who.  Doesn’t matter to The Confidential.
  • The Mountain West was sitting pretty heading into yesterday undefeated, but has now dropped to 14-2.  A fade back into irrelevance is now in order.  Also, keep an eye on the back door, the Big East is hunting in your backyard.
  • The Big 10?  20-2.  No, that’s not the halftime score of a Wisconsin game.  That’s the Big 10’s overall record.  And Michigan State’s losses both came to ACC schools.
  • Pac-12?  Not sure why the Pac-12 is credited with having elite anything.  Every year they fail to place enough teams in bowl games.  Every March, the bracketologists wonder whether they will get 4 teams in.  18-6 to start the season.  Ugh.  Stupid West Coast bias.
  • The SEC?  Stick to football.  19-5.

So, there it is.  After five days, the ACC is rather plainly dominating college basketball.

As it should be.  Right?

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , ,
16 Nov 2011
2 Comments

ACC Football Predictions for November 19, 2011

After a 5-1  week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Virginia Tech (9-1) hosting North Carolina (6-4)

The easy pick here is Virginia Tech.  Look at where the game is being played.  Look at the records.  Look at the general directions the teams are headed.  Ignore the fact that North Carolina beat Virginia Tech the last time the teams met in Blacksburg.  That last one is bit scary.  But this is game that Virginia Tech needs to control its destiny.  And the Confidential does not see this North Carolina team pulling off the upset.  Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

North Carolina State (5-5) hosting Clemson (9-1)

Clemson has been making it interesting lately.  And they are surely riding high with their berth in the ACC Championship game now assured.  There is certainly a risk of Clemson looking past the team that just lost to Boston College.  And then there is “any given Saturday.”  But the visitors just have too much talent.  Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

Duke (3-7) hosting Georgia Tech (7-3)

Georgia Tech is a hard team to figure out.  They have lost 3 of 4 games.  But that is sandwiched around giving Clemson its only loss.  Georgia Tech is only 2-2 on the road.  Meanwhile, in Duke’s last two home games, they lost to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech by a combined 5 points.  Of course, Florida State and Stanford had their way in that same location.  This is a game where nobody should be shocked if Duke pulls the upset, but The Confidential does not see it.  Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17.

Wake Forest (5-5) hosting Maryland (2-8)

Wake Forest is a team that is two bounces away from being 7-3.  And they have struggled at home against superior foes, such as Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.  Maryland, of course, is not a superior foe.  In fact, Maryland’s season seems to be spiraling out of control.  While nothing is impossible, a Maryland win here would be simply shocking.  Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

Notre Dame (7-3) hosting Boston College (3-7)

The Notre Dame ACC tour continues.  So far, Notre Dame has beaten Wake Forest and Maryland in ACC country.  For this one, Notre Dame gets to host it.  While Boston College has won 2 out of 3, this one still looks like a game that Notre Dame will have to lose for itself.  While it has certainly shown the ability to lose games by untimely turnovers in great quantity, it seems unlikely here.  Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

South Florida (5-4) hosting Miami (5-5)

This is a battle for bowl eligibility.  Miami does have the benefit of hosting Boston College next week, while South Florida has two conference games remaining.  Miami is likely to be down after a tough loss on the road at Florida State.  Meanwhile, South Florida has some momentum back after righting the ship at Syracuse.  BJ Daniels has not been the problem this year.  This is bigger than a bowl game for the Bulls.   South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

GAME OF THE WEEK

Florida State (7-3) hosting Virginia (7-3).  Virginia has already won at Miami.  But if you look a little deeper, you’ll see that Virginia’s wins are not overly impressive.  Sure, the win over Georgia Tech was impressive.  But this game is, by far, Virginia’s toughest challenge.  At least until next week.  Meanwhile, Florida State seems to have righted the ship.  These are the games that will dictate whether Florida State returns to being football elite or will continue to be mired in mediocrity.  The old Florida State would see 10-3 as the only possible way to salvage the season and prepare for a 14-0 run next year.  Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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