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04 Feb 2013

The Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: February 4, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of February 4, 2013:

1.  Duke (3 first place votes)     58 points

2.  Miami   (2 first place votes)   55 points

3.  Syracuse    47 points

4.  Notre Dame   41 points

5.  Louisville   40 points

6.  NC State   35 points

7.   Pittsburgh   32 points

8.  North Carolina   29 points

9.   Maryland  21 points

10.  Virginia   19 points

11.   Florida State  11 points

12.  Clemson  3 points

Notes:

Clemson edged Wake Forest 3-2, to land the coveted 12th spot in the standings.

The correspondents are starting to both believe in Miami and question Syracuse.  Nobody had Duke below #2.

Speaking of Syracuse, the Orange and Fighting Irish face off on Monday for the much desired number three spot in the poll.  Syracuse needs a win badly.

Louisville, Pitt, and NC State are a solid number 5 through 7, but the Tar Heels at 8 and only a few points behind them is surprising.

Maryland is only narrowly ahead of Virginia.  Unfortunately, Maryland does not have any ACC rivals, or they would be even better.  Bring on Rutgers and Iowa!

One half of the top 8 continues to be Big East.  Maybe the ACC is not helping football enough, but the basketball improvement will be obvious.  Of course, all four went to bowl games too.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
02 Feb 2013

ACC Hoops Weekend–1st Weekend of February 2013

As we draw ever closer to March madness, the weekends become more and more important for ACC basketball fans.

Saturday, February 2, 2013:

#6 Syracuse suffered only its second loss in 30 conferences games last Saturday.  With an injury to Dajuan Coleman, the Orange are down to seven scholarship players.  They travel to Pittsburgh for a nooner, who narrowly lost to Louisville on Monday.  Going to be a great matchup.

But the big game of the day has to be #14 Miami @ #19 North Carolina State.  These are the two teams to beat DePaul.  Meanwhile, Miami has won 8 straight.  Tune in at 4:00 p.m. for this one.

Another big game is #5 Duke at Florida State.  The Confidential still cannot figure out why the Seminoles are struggling.  But as Duke looks to continue its post-Miami blowout rebound, the Seminoles are going to need to play to their potential.

Notre Dame heads into Chicago to face struggling DePaul.  At 17-4, the Irish are looking to get back into the national rankings.  DePaul has lost 5 straight and is 10-10.

At noon, Virginia Tech faces off at the Dean Dome against North Carolina.  The Hokies are at 11-9, meaning the bubble–as in NIT bubble.  Perhaps they should not have made the coaching change?  Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are a mere shell of their normal selves at 14-6.  Good for some teams, subpar for UNC.

Another nooner is Clemson at Boston College.  The Tigers need every win they can get, while Boston College’s 5-game streak shows that this year will have to be about moral victories (again).  2012-2013 has been better than 2011-2012, as an example.  Clemson MUST win this game.

The final Saturday game is Maryland hosting Wake Forest.  While the Terps are busy spending their future Big 10 riches, Wake Forest is busy…. well, doing very little.  Both teams need to right the ship as they enter the game on two game losing skids.

Sunday, February 3, 2013:

The folks over at Frank the Tank see Virginia and Georgia Tech as the two schools likely to head to the Big 10.  After all, the Big 10 is collecting markets that do not succeed on the field/court.  In any event, these two programs face off at 3:00 pm on Sunday, allowing their fans to avoid most of the pre-game Super Bowl show.  Here is a question… who has a better defense in terms of points-per-game… Virginia basketball or Georgia Tech football?  You can look it up.

The other Sunday matchup is a pair of schools that are fleeing the Big East… Marquette and Louisville.  Both schools are ranked (Louisville at #12/#13, Marquette at #25) and have only four losses.  This should be a very good one.


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
01 Feb 2013
15 Comments

A Doomsday Scenario For the ACC–MrSEC Provides One

In the blogosphere, Mr. SEC is not someone to throw stuff at the walls.  And it is not happening here.  But the blog does have an article about how the Big XII and SEC could work together to kill off the ACC as a viable 5th big conference.

Part of the premise is that if the Big XII took Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, and Georgia Tech (along with say Miami and ND as a partial member for football), it could engage the SEC with a scheduling agreement.  That way the Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia schools would continue playing each other, while Missouri-Kansas, Texas-A&M, etc., could be renewed.  The question that begs is who that helps?  The in-state rivalry games are going to happen.  The difference between calling them “out-of-conference” and “out-of-conference, but part of the scheduling agreement” is minimal.  That still only leaves a certain number of games for other opponents.  In the meantime, we’d never get to see Florida-Texas or LSU-Florida State, because Florida-FSU would be playing every year in the “alliance game.”

This is not to say that the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC could not figure out a number of ways to divide up the ACC.  The bottom line is that being Syracuse and Wake Forest right now is not fun.  Not much room for private schools in the top 4 conferences.  So a viable ACC is needed to sit at the adults table.  At least BC and Pitt occasionally show up elsewhere in some doomsday scenarios.

Really, unless the ACC moves to a Grant of Rights, the expansion issue is going to loom.  Otherwise, the Big XII has a relative strength advantage over the ACC.  And that makes the ACC a target.

What is your opinion?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , , ,
31 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Rare Shout-Out to Other Blogs

The Confidential’s two favorite general blogs on the Internet, other than this one, are Frank the Tank and ACC Football Rx.  They should be part of any ACC fan’s regular reading.

ACC Football Rx is ACC-focused, which is great.  With a focus on football and expansion, the primary author, Hokie Mark, does a great job of picking subjects, accumulating data, and being realistic/positive about the ACC.  Really, there are far too many good articles over there to point out just one.  Add it your list.

Frank the Tank is expansion-based and Big 10 centric (to say the least), but there are a fair share of commentators who hold an allegiance outside the Big 10.  And the author is quite-evenhanded in discussing other conferences.  The commentariat is a little less reasoned, but are a great source for expansion ideas.

That blog’s latest entry discusses the Big XII and the ACC, the alliance discussed here last week, and other topics.  As always, the blog is quick to note that the assumption that the ACC in jeopardy is more fantasy than reality right now:

So, that’s where I see the threats of the ACC becoming completely coming apart end up failing.  UNC, in particular, has Texas-esque influence (even if it’s more perceived than real) in the ACC, and the actions of Deloss Dodds and the Longhorns have shown that power and big dog status can be even more important as making the most TV money from a conference.  (Notre Dame feels the same way.)  As a result, the thought that UNC and UVA are going to bolt because they are scared that the ACC will collapse doesn’t hold water with me.  Those 2 schools can keep the ACC together alone and they have enough powerful alums with massive pocketbooks and politicians backing them where getting more TV revenue isn’t going to carry the same weight with them as it did with Maryland.

That’s some good stuff too. And it really underscores why the ACC’s biggest problem is worrying about what the rest of the conference schools might be thinking.

If you care about the ACC, expansion matters.  These two blogs are two more to add to your required reading list.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
30 Jan 2013
4 Comments

If The Confidential Ran the NBDL

The Confidential loves college hoops.  The Confidential used to enjoy the NBA.  It was back in the day when college seniors would get drafted and you could follow the college stars as they meshed with NBA superstars.  Somewhere along the way, the NBA lost a lot of fans.  At least part of it is that the NBA is populated by players that spent less than two years in college.  We never got a chance to like them and they were off to ride the pine while their potential wasted away.  The NBDL is an opportunity to bridge the gap with college fans.  Instead of taking advantage of it, the NBA minimizes it.  It is a missed opportunity.  So here is The Confidential’s plan to use the NBDL to help lure the college fan base back to the NBA game.

First, how about an NBA tweak.  Allow an extra roster spot for a college graduate at 1/2 the league minimum.  Why is the NBA choosing potential over a flawed, but beloved player?  Well, everyone knows why.  But there is a cost–the college fan is marginalized.  So allow one measly roster spot to be populated by a player that will play sparingly, but get an idea how the NBA works.  We’ll watch to see if/when he plays.  Like a walk-on, etc.

Second, use the NBDL.  Right now, there are NBDL teams in what cities?  Do you even know?  Care?  The NBA forced ten gajillion WNBA commercials on fans… but who can name 10 NBDL locations?

Well, here you go:

  • Canton, Ohio (the football hall of fame town is a great place for a hoops team)
  • Erie, Pennsylvania (yawn)
  • Fort Wayne, Indiana (perhaps)
  • Maine (a whole state)
  • Springfield, Massachusetts
  • Austin, Texas (great!)
  • Iowa (a whole state, but we can live with this)
  • Hidalgo, Texas (population 12,000–12,020 when in-season)
  • Sioux Falls, South Dakota (did Winnipeg balk?)
  • Frisco, Texas (it’s near Dallas)
  • Tulsa, Oklahoma (fine)
  • Bakersfield, California (arena can be expanded to fit 700 fans!)
  • Boise, Idaho (again, arena football makes more sense than hoops)
  • Los Angeles, California (as if this is cracks the top 100,000 in things to do in L.A.)
  • Reno, Nevada (because the NBA does not want to be associated with gambling… what?)
  • Santa Cruz, California

Yawn city.  Just mistake after mistake.

Why doesn’t the NBA locate its NBDL franchises near popular college basketball hotbeds?   Let us get to see more of these guys–we miss them!

How about this instead:

  • Hartford, Connecticut (captures the Boston fan base and UConn, as well as anything Northeast… but is NOT in Maine)
  • Rochester, New York (captures the Syracuse fan base–good enough to put 34,000 people in a Dome, occasionally, as well as Buffalo metro)
  • Alexandria, Virginia (captures the DC area, Maryland, and Virginia)
  • Canton, Ohio (fine… Ohio)
  • Flint, Michigan (get the Michigan State and Michigan fans fired up)
  • Fort Wayne, Indiana (fine… all the Indiana schools’ fans)
  • Madison, Wisconsin (the Big 10/NFC North, etc.)
  • Tulsa, Oklahoma (fine)
  • Topeka, Kansas (the Kansas fans)
  • Austin, Texas (fine)
  • Louisville, Kentucky (another hoops hotbed)
  • Raleigh, NC (NC hoops!)
  • Salem, Oregon (the Northwest!)
  • Santa Clara, California (fine)
  • Los Angeles, California (fine… but nobody will care)
  • Phoenix, Arizona (the AZ/New Mexico hoops fans)

Did we get everyone?  Probably not, Florida & the Southeast are underrepresented.  But this is a start.

Imagine a Rochester, NY, team with three former Syracuse players.  People would care…. especially if/when a player was called up.  Imagine Kentucky/Louisville fans watching 5-6 of their former players on one team?  People would care.  Same with North Carolina and Indiana.  Perhaps limit it to three players from a college within 100 miles or something.  Whatever.  The NCAA does not want NBDL franchises being a lure for college players (as if).

Why wouldn’t it work?  You tell us.

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Opinion and tagged , , , , , ,
28 Jan 2013

The First Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: January 28, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of January 28, 2013:

1.  Duke  (2 first place votes)   56 points

2.  Syracuse (1 first place vote)   54 points

3.  Miami (2 first place votes)  49 points

4.  North Carolina State   44 points

5.  (tie) Notre Dame and Pitt  37 points

7.  Louisville  30 points

8.  Virginia   25 points

9.  Maryland   23 points

10.  North Carolina 17 points

11. Florida State  11 points

12. Clemson  6 points

Notes:

Georgia Tech was placed #12 on a ballot each, but Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Boston College did not crack anyone’s top 12.  Sorry to those teams.

It is clear that name value still matters, as Duke and Syracuse suffered losses but stayed in the top 2.  Meanwhile, not everyone is persuaded that Miami is for real.  Was it just a hot January?  We’ll see.

North Carolina State is generally #4 or #5 in each poll.  It gets interesting thereafter, with the teams very hard to place.  Is Louisville the team that was ranked #1 in the country or the one that has lost 3 in a row?  What are Notre Dame, Pitt, and Maryland REALLY?  And it is odd to see North Carolina so low.  But do its rivals really care?  Enjoy the middle of the pack.  Virginia could find itself several places higher soon enough. 

Anyway, what do YOU think.  Does Duke still deserve the #1 spot?  Does Syracuse?  Miami?  Someone else?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Jan 2013

Weekend Hoops Review: January 28, 2013

As we draw ever closer to March madness, the weekends become more and more important for ACC basketball fans.  Here are the questions posed before the games, as well as the answers.

Games from Saturday, January 26, 2013:

How will Duke respond to its 27-point loss to Miami this week?  We’ll find out when they take on 15-4 Maryland today.  Expect Coach K’s team to rebound at home–but if they lose???   Wow–what a tough week.

Well, Duke rebounded.  Not literally, as Maryland outrebounded the Blue Devils 42-31.  Duke figuratively rebounded, defeating Maryland in convincing fashion, 84-64.  Freshman Rasheed Sulaimon led the Blue Devils with 25 points, but it was a team effort…offensively and defensively.  With the win, Duke improves to 17-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play.  Despite the loss, Maryland is still 15-5, albeit with a 3-4 conference record.

With apologies to others, today’s North Carolina-North Carolina State game is the best of the day.  NC State is 15-4 and ranked #18.  North Carolina is 13-5 and unranked.  Really, North Carolina is closer to the bottom of the ACC than the top right now–if you count the future members.  You know NC State wants to do to the Tar Heels what Miami did to Duke.

Our NC State correspondent was cautiously optimistic, but it was the caution that was the mistake.  The Pack jumped out to a 45-26 lead at halftime, and then coasted to a 91-83 victory.  Three players had double-doubles: CJ Leslie (17 points, 10 rebounds), Richard Howell (16 points, 14 rebounds), and Lorenzo Brown (2o points, 11 assists).  Oh, and two other players scored in double figures too.  With the win, State has now beaten Duke and UNC, and sits at 5-2 in conference play. 

Louisville’s loss to Syracuse was understandable.  Louisville’s loss to Villanova was far less so.  No rest for the weary as the #5 Cardinals head to Georgetown today.  A win–and the ship is back on course.  A loss?  And now you’ve got a 3-game losing streak.  Can Rick Pitino get his team focused?  We’ll see.

Uh-oh.  Louisville lost again.  Offensively inept Georgetown defeated the Cardinals 53-51, making it three-straight losses for Rich Pitino’s squad.  At the very least, Louisville is not being dominated by teams.  It took a tip-in for this loss.  Needless to say, however, Louisville needs to right the ship fast.  And the schedule does not let up–with Pitt on Monday, as well as games against Marquette, St. Johns, and Notre Dame in the next two weeks.

#3 Syracuse travels to Villanova.  If Villanova can pull another upset, that would be quite a week for the Wildcats.  Syracuse has been treading water, but needs to take care of business today.

The Orange had been playing with fire in the games without James Southerland, and it finally came back to haunt them, losing to Villianova in overtime, 75-71.  Without Southerland, foul trouble cost Syracuse two of its bigs in regulation.  33.3% from the field did not help either.  But don’t feel sorry for Syracuse, they are 18-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play.  They have won 28 of their last 30 Big East regular season games too.

#24 Notre Dame leaves the snow to head to Florida to take on South Florida.  The Bulls are better than most think, but at 10-8 aren’t doing themselves any favors.

The Fighting Irish improved to 16-4 overall by toppling the Bulls, 73-65.  With Villanova, Syracuse, and Louisville on the schedule in the next two weeks, Notre Dame needed to win this winnable game.  

At 16-4, Pitt has hardly been awful this year.  They get to host DePaul today to get that 17th win.

Pitt utterly destroyed DePaul, 93-55.  This puts the Panthers at 17-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play.  Are they back?  Not sure a win over DePaul can provide any answers about that.  We’ll see how it goes against Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Marquette over the next 5 games.  

Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are both hovering at .500 overall.  Georgia Tech is on a 5-game losing streak and needs a win badly.

Georgia Tech got its first conference win of the year, beating up on Wake Forest, 82 to 62.  The Yellow Jackets jumped on the Demon Deacons, racing to a 52-29 lead at halftime.  Georgia Tech was due, if not overdue, for a win, so let’s give them credit for doing so in convincing fashion.  Wake Forest drops to 3-4 in conference play.

At 13-5, Virginia is having a nice, but unspectacular season.  They cannot afford to lose to 9-9 Boston College, obviously.

Despite trailing at halftime, Virginia rallied in the second half to put Boston College away, 65-51.  For the Wahoos, this means avoiding a very ugly loss on the resume.  This also improves them to 14-5 overall and 4-2 in conference play.

Games on Sunday, January 27, 2013:

If only these were football games.

11-7 Virginia Tech travels to 10-8 Clemson for a 1:00 p.m. matchup.  These teams are not likely to be dancing in March, but they need wins to keep NIT hopes alive.

Clemson moved to 11-8 with a 77-70 victory over the now 11-8 Virginia Tech Hokies.  Senior Milton Jennings had his best game ever, with 28 points and 14 rebounds.  He also had four blocks and was an amazing 16 for 18 from the foul line.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and is only 2-4 in conference play.    

At 14-3 overall and 5-0 in conference play, Miami looks to build off its utter destruction of #1 Duke this week.  A win over disappointing Florida State would be a nice rivalry win, as well as a reason to move Miami up substantially in the polls.  The ACC wisely chose to feature this game as its 6:00 p.m. Sunday game.  The Battle for Florida is on.

Miami destroyed Florida State, 71-47, to move to 6-0 in conference play.  At 15-3, Miami is due for a substantial rise in the polls.  Is it an understatement to say that hiring Jim Larranaga was a good idea?  Meanwhile, Florida State continues to struggle… now 3-3 in conference play and 11-8 overall.  

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Jan 2013
7 Comments

Friends with Benefits–the ACC and the Big XII?

The Confidential did not make this phrase up.

We can prove it.  Big XII Commissioner Bob Bowlsby recently said this:

“If anything, it’s the opposite,” Bowlsby said. “You can begin to get some advantages without taking on any of the disadvantages (of expansion). It’s one option that allows benefits. It’s kind of like friends with benefits.”

What was Bowlsby talking about?  Apparently, the Big XII is considering an alliance with 3 other conferences that would take expansion/realignment off the table, but allow conferences to use each other to maximize revenue.  The ACC is one of the conferences that the Big XII approached.  This issue involves scheduling, marketing, and perhaps even television contracts.

Look, while some folks are never going to think the ACC is at risk, the defection of Maryland is happening.  Of course, schools have left the ACC before.  Schools even left the SEC once upon a time.  But the money that the Big Ten is generating is simply too much for some institutions to turn their backs on.  So anything that can arguably add revenue to the ACC coffers is important.  If an alliance with the Big XII is part of it, so be it.

From a realignment standpoint, the idea of Florida State and others defecting to the Big XII is debatable.  It seems unlikely that the Seminoles would trade down academically, just to add a few million dollars.  But as long as that is on the table, there is just one more reason for ACC fans to be nervous.  At the same time, the Big XII has to worry about the Pac-12, which has few options for new members geographically.  So an alliance between the three conferences makes some sense.  If the Big XII is only considering adding teams to save itself from a future Pac-12 expansion, the fear of realignment is doing more harm than actual realignment.  As noted above, Bowlsby thinks that an alliance will reduce the pressure for expansion.

Really, the best case scenario would be an 8-10 year agreement between the 5 major conferences to let things play out for a while without more realignment.  The SEC and B1G can make more money by destroying other conferences, but nobody knows the cost of abandoning so many rivalries in the process.  Of course, it is hard to tell the predator to ignore the prey.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , ,
26 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Last Weekend of January: ACC Hoops

As we draw ever closer to March madness, the weekends become more and more important for ACC basketball fans.

Saturday, January 26, 2013:

How will Duke respond to its 27-point loss to Miami this week?  We’ll find out when they take on 15-4 Maryland today.  Expect Coach K’s team to rebound at home–but if they lose???   Wow–what a tough week.

With apologies to others, today’s North Carolina-North Carolina State game is the best of the day.  NC State is 15-4 and ranked #18.  North Carolina is 13-5 and unranked.  Really, North Carolina is closer to the bottom of the ACC than the top right now–if you count the future members.  You know NC State wants to do to the Tar Heels what Miami did to Duke.

Louisville’s loss to Syracuse was understandable.  Louisville’s loss to Villanova was far less so.  No rest for the weary as the #5 Cardinals head to Georgetown today.  A win–and the ship is back on course.  A loss?  And now you’ve got a 3-game losing streak.  Can Rick Pitino get his team focused?  We’ll see.

#3 Syracuse travels to Villanova.  If Villanova can pull another upset, that would be quite a week for the Wildcats.  Syracuse has been treading water, but needs to take care of business today.

#24 Notre Dame leaves the snow to head to Florida to take on South Florida.  The Bulls are better than most think, but at 10-8 aren’t doing themselves any favors.

At 16-4, Pitt has hardly been awful this year.  They get to host DePaul today to get that 17th win.

Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are both hovering at .500 overall.  Georgia Tech is on a 5-game losing streak and needs a win badly.

At 13-5, Virginia is having a nice, but unspectacular season.  They cannot afford to lose to 9-9 Boston College, obviously.

Sunday, January 27, 2013:

If only these were football games.

11-7 Virginia Tech travels to 10-8 Clemson for a 1:00 p.m. matchup.  These teams are not likely to be dancing in March, but they need wins to keep NIT hopes alive.

At 14-3 overall and 5-0 in conference play, Miami looks to build off its utter destruction of #1 Duke this week.  A win over disappointing Florida State would be a nice rivalry win, as well as a reason to move Miami up substantially in the polls.  The ACC wisely chose to feature this game as its 6:00 p.m. Sunday game.  The Battle for Florida is on.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
23 Jan 2013

The ACC Has 4 Champ-worthy Basketball Teams

Peter Tiernan of CBS Sports has an interesting take on whether various teams are capable of winning it all in the 2013 big dance: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21598229/champ-check-six-have-inside-track-to-title.  Tiernan notes that the last 8 Champions have shared certain criteria.  This year, only six teams currently share those same criteria–Duke, Kansas, Louisville, Syracuse, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State,  Florida, Minnesota, and North Carolina State.  Thus, the ACC has four champ-worthy teams.

The article actually has a good discussion of the common criteria among champions.  It is an interesting read.  What do you think?

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball and tagged , , , ,

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