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22 Jan 2013

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 22, 2013

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of January 22, 2013:

1.     Syracuse (18-1) – The Orange eked out two impressive wins over #1 ranked Louisville and plucky Cincinnati, all without their 6th starter, James Southerland. Syracuse may have the #1 spot in the conference right now, but the margin of error is very slim. Next up: @ Villanova.

2.     Duke (16-1) – Duke recovered from their loss against NC State with a win over Georgia Tech, all while missing Kelly from the line-up. Next up @#25 Miami, vs. Maryland.

3.     Louisville (16-2) – Louisville was about 15 seconds away from taking down the Orange and staying atop the rankings, instead their time on top ended prematurely. Next up: @ Villanova, @ Georgetown, @ Pitt.

4.     Miami (13-3) – Miami’s record has been flawless for the first half of January, notching recent wins against Maryland and Boston College and garnering a top-25 ranking. Things are going to get a lot tougher for the ‘Canes when Duke brings their talents to South Beach. Next up: vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, @ Virginia Tech.

5.     North Carolina State (15-3) – The Wolfpack follow-up their monumental win against Duke by losing a heartbreaker to Maryland, but righted the ship by getting the job done against Clemson. Next up: @Wake Forest, @UNC.

6.     Pittsburgh (15-4) – The Panthers were able to move-on from the OT loss to Marquette and picked-up two nice wins against Villanova and UConn and should pick up two more this week. Up Next: @Providence, vs. DePaul, @ Louisville.

7.     Notre Dame (15-4) – The Irish bounced back from tough back-to-back losses against UConn and St. John’s by barely beating a surprising Rutgers team. And then a loss to Georgetown.  Up next: @ USF, vs. Villanova.

8.     Virginia (12-5) –Did you see what Virginia did to Florida State?  Allowing 36 points in a game is just unreal.  Up Next: @ Virginia Tech, vs. Boston College.

9.     Maryland (14-4) – The Terps have been very mercurial since league play started in January, particularly struggling offensively; perhaps just getting ready for their future in the Big Ten. Next up: vs. Boston College, @ Duke, @ FSU.

10.  North Carolina (12-5) – It’s too early to tell if Roy’s Boys are back on track, or if the past two wins over Florida State and Maryland are just an aberration. Up Next: vs. Georgia Tech, @NC State, @ Boston College.

11.  Florida State (10-7) – It’s a good thing that the Seminoles haven’t played many games lately, because they have just been down-right bad. One expects the football team to score 36 points, not the basketball team. Sheesh. Next up: vs. Clemson, @ Miami, vs. Maryland.

12.  Clemson (10-7) – The Tigers needed a win against North Carolina State to help keep the positive momentum going. Next up:@ Florida State, vs. Virginia Tech, and vs. Georgia Tech.

13.  Boston College (9-8) –  Boston College looks to stem the losing streak and avoid slipping to the bottom of the ACC. Next up: @Maryland, @ Virginia, vs. UNC.

14.  Virginia Tech (11-6) – VPI beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, but lost to Boston College. Next up: vs. Virginia, @ Clemson, vs. Miami.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
21 Jan 2013
2 Comments

Conference Realignment–Always Murky

On Friday, the Confidential discussed the different ways to decipher the words trickling out of Big XII headquarters regarding expansion.  Unfortunately, we get to play the game again.  ESPN interviewed the new athletic director from Georgia Tech, Mike Bobinski.  His comments regarding realignment were encouraging or discouraging, depending on how you read them.

First, let’s start with the money quote:

Bobinski smiled when asked if Georgia Tech might be joining the realignment frenzy.

“That’s the ultimate loaded question,” he said, before quickly stressing he thinks the ACC is an “unbelievable home for Georgia Tech. It’s the right fit in today’s world for us.”

The Yellow Jackets’ goals — both athletically and academically — are aligned with conference rivals such as North Carolina, Duke and Virginia, he added.

“That’s the company Georgia Tech belongs in,” Bobinski said. “It’s the right alignment in a lot of ways. I don’t have any inclination at this point in time that there’s any different home in our future. Our goal right now — us and the rest of the members of the ACC — is be as good as we can be in football and strengthen the revenue base in and around the conference, so there’s no temptation for folks to start to be picked off. We’re all-in for the ACC.”

ESPN chooses to see these comments as a positive, treating the comments as a “commitment to the ACC.”  One can kind of see the point there.

But not the folks over at Frank the Tank’s expansion-heavy blog.  The commentariat over there reads heavily between the lines–in a way that is not at all encouraging for ACC fans.  Indeed, why not just say–“NO, as my predecessor noted, Georgia Tech is not going anywhere!”  Also, the latest fetish among the commentariat is an 18-team Big 10 with 4 more ACC teams added to the mix.  So, the comment regarding UNC, Duke, and UVa is perceived as stating Georgia Tech’s preference for brethren if it joins the Big 10.  The Confidential further notes that Mr. Bobiniski has a lot of conditional language in his statements too.  So, as usual, the Frank the Tank folks have a good point too.

But before ordering the ACC tombstone, there is one final positive thought.  At least Mr. Bobinski concluded with a statement that Georgia Tech is “all-in for the ACC.”  If all the schools really could go “all-in” for the ACC, the future would be bright…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
20 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Confidential’s NCAA Basketball Top 10

The Confidential is going to switch to a new format for its national rankings of the best basketball teams.  Instead of a top 25, it will just be a top 10.  Here it goes:

10. Minnesota – So far this season, Minnesota’s three losses have all come at the hands of the team that was ranked #5 in the country that week.
9. Gonzaga – Gonzaga was an in-bounds pass away from defeating Butler and advancing further in the top-10 after a hard-fought, back-and-forth game that looked every bit like a March Madness game.
8. Indiana – There is no excuse to losing to Wisconsin at home; now Indiana has to take care of business at Northwestern.
7. Ohio State – OSU followed a big time win over Michigan with a tough loss against the always difficult Michigan State. You have to give the Buckeyes credit for having one of the most difficult schedules in the country, hopefully that will pay off dividends in April.
6. Arizona – With only 1-loss on their resume, it’s hard to not put Arizona into the top 5 and it’s not their fault that the Pac-12 is not as good of league as the Big East, ACC, or even the BigTen. But, they haven’t really had a big win since early December.
5. Michigan – It seems illogical to rank Michigan ahead of Ohio State, the only team that have beaten them all season, but unlike the Buckeyes, the Wolverines won their match-up this week against a tough opponent in Minnesota.
4. Louisville – Big win against UConn, tough loss at home against Syracuse. Louisville has the talent to be cutting down the nets in April.
3. Duke – Duke recovered from their loss against NCState and did what they had to do: soundly beat Georgia Tech. With Ryan Kelly back in the lineup, this team could be unstoppable.
2. Syracuse – Their huge comeback win against #1 Louisville on Saturday is certainly worthy of retaking the top position, unfortunately the edge just goes to…
1. Kansas – Kansas’ win over Texas wasn’t impressive, but they keep finding ways to win. We’ll know a lot more about this team after their next test against their in-state rival in Manhattan.

A lot more “future ACC” than current ACC… what is the deal?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
19 Jan 2013

Big Weekend for ACC Hoops Today

This weekend promises to be an exciting one for ACC basketball fans.

Saturday, January 19, 2013:

The big game will be #1 Louisville v #6 Syracuse.  Syracuse will be playing without its top offensive threat, James Southerland.  Louisville is on quite a roll.  Can Louisville hang on to #1?

North Carolina has not been North Carolina this year.  Maryland is 14-3.  Can Maryland go into the Dean Dome and topple the Tar Heels?

Florida State and Virginia were two of the most surprising teams in basketball last year.  Both have somewhat disappointing records so far.  They play today–some has to win and get momentum.

In other games, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech square off.  14-4 Pitt hosts UConn.  And #20 Notre Dame hosts Rutgers.

Sunday, January 20, 2013:

Sunday’s lone game features North Carolina State, now ranked #14, hosting Clemson.  These are the games that the Wolfpack need to win going away to show that they are worthy of a top 4 seed in March.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
17 Jan 2013
5 Comments

Don’t Think Expansion is Over Just Yet…

Look… this is just never going to end.  With the Big East dying a slow death, and with Maryland’s departure, it is clear that the ACC is everyone’s target for future expansion.  And now the Big XII commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, is going on record that it may not be d0ne expanding.  So, if you are an ACC fan, this is not the time to get over-confident.

To be sure, it may be that the Big XII will decide not to expand.  They have plenty of money per school and the good fortune of a true round-robin in conference play.  The only real drawback to 10 members is the absence of a conference title game.  And Bowlsby does have a problem with the NCAA stating that 12, rather than 10, is the magic number for a lucrative championship game.  And, frankly, he has a point.  Who really cares–if the Big XII wants to have a conference championship game, the NCAA might as well let them.  A pretty victim-less “crime.”

Returning to expansion, the usual names will always pop up–Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, etc.  It is hard to see other schools adding to the per-school payouts that the Big XII will be generating.  And it is even harder to see a Duke, North Carolina, or Virginia being amenable to the academic inferiority that the Big XII would bring.  Still, the ACC has to be a little nervous.

More positive from an ACC standpoint is this blurb from Bowlsby:

“That’s exactly one of the questions we’ll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said Wednesday. “Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They don’t bring programs that are of the ilk of the others in the Big Ten. The philosophy clearly is: ‘As members of the Big Ten we can grow them.’ “

Maybe the Big XII is wondering whether it can grow a program or two of its own.  If so, enter Cincinnati, BYU, and perhaps even UConn.  These have to be the best three overall schools that are not affiliated with the top 5 conferences.  And perhaps nobody should be sleeping on South Florida.  The Big XII could add some viewership with the Cincinnati and Tampa markets.  At the very least, it is possible for the Big XII to expand without trying to lure an ACC school.

In the meantime, all anyone can do is sit back and watch.  Unless, of course, the ACC wants to start discussing a Grant of Rights… but that is another topic for another day.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
16 Jan 2013
4 Comments

ACC Beats SEC in One Metric: Revenue?

UPDATE:  Here is a link to the actual Forbes article, which provides more detail.  The Big XII comes in 5th at $262,000,000. Wondering about the Big East?  Try $94,000,000.

According to Forbes, the ACC has more revenue than the SEC.  The article ACC beat out the SEC in terms of revenue by several percent, allowing the ACC to snag the #3 spot in the conference rankings.  The Big 10 was #1, with the Pac 12 finishing second.

That being said, file this article under “FWIW,” with the “worth” being “not so much.”  After all, the Big XII seemed to be omitted.

It is also difficult to understand how the Big 10’s revenue of $310,000,000, could be only slightly more than the ACC’s revenue of $293,000,000.  While the article mentions “estimates,” it is unclear what possible estimate could lead to this calculation.  The Pac-12 was listed as having $303,000,000 in revenue, while the SEC trailed all conferences at $270,000,000.  Of course, the SEC is due to renegotiate its television deal soon, which will result in an increase.

What do you think?  Are these numbers legit?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Opinion and tagged , ,
15 Jan 2013

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 15, 2013

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of January 8, 2013:

1.  Duke (15-1)–The Blue Devils lost.  But they have beaten Louisville–so how can the Cardinals slide up to #1.  Yet.

2. Louisville (16-1)–The ACC’s newest addition is now #1 in the country.  They beat UConn on Monday and get Syracuse this weekend.

3.Syracuse (16-1)–The Orange have another academic casualty–James Southerland.  They still did pretty well without Fab Melo last year though.

4.North Carolina State (14-2)–The Wolfpack did what nobody else could do this year–beat Duke.  Still, with two losses, hard to move them into the top 3.

5. Notre Dame (14-2)--The Irish were on a roll, but then they ran into UConn.  The Irish will hold onto a top 5 spot for now.

6. Miami (12-3)–Miami has nice wins over Michigan State, North Carolina, and Maryland.  3-0 in the ACC is a great start.

7. Maryland (13-3)–The Terps do not have many good wins.  The losses to Miami and Florida State do not help the resume either.

8. Pittsburgh (13-4)–The Panthers were looking good at 12-1 with its only loss being to Michigan.  They have now lost 3 of 4 Big East games.  The win over Georgetown is nice though.

9. Virginia (11-5)–The Wahoos do not have a more impressive resume than North Carolina.  But they did beat North Carolina, whose resume is not that great either.

10. North Carolina (11-5)–North Carolina is not looking great this year at all.  It is going to be a battle to make the Big Dance.

11. Florida State (10-6)—The Seminoles are looking decent at 10-6, at least compared to how the season started.  A win over UNC would have been nicer though.

12. Wake Forest (9-6)–The Demon Deacons were #16 a week ago.  But now they are 2-1 in conference, with the only loss being to Duke.  12-16 is a crapshoot anyway.

13. Clemson (9-6)–The Tigers have the best win among the bottom 4–Virginia.  Better than nothing.

14. Boston College (9-7)–The Eagles have a win over Virginia Tech.  So that gets them the #14 spot this week.

15. Virginia Tech (10-6)–After starting 7-0, the Hokies have lost 6 of 9.  They even lost to Boston College.

16. Georgia Tech (10-5)–The Yellow Jackets are 0-3 in conference play, so that means the cellar.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Jan 2013
1 Comment

ACC Considering a Network?

In a move that should surprise exactly nobody, the Atlantic Coast Conference may be considering an ACC network.  The Big 10 has one that mints money.  The Pac-12 is working on a network.  The SEC is in the planning stages of having a network.  The ACC really has to consider this as a means of survival.  Or at least “keeping up with the Joneses.”

While nobody should expect an ACC network to generate the type of revenue that the Big 10 network does, the ACC can still make additional money with a network.  The Big 10 has been successful with third-tier games.  An expanded ACC has some pretty compelling third-tier games to offer.  And the ACC basketball side of things will lead to substantial inventory.  This is what the Big East always missed–basketball is inventory.  Hopefully, the ACC will learn from the Big East’s mistake.  You’ve got to market what you have to market.

To be sure, ESPN has the ACC’s rights locked up for the next 15 years.  But if ESPN wants to have an ACC, it is going to have to bend.  If the ACC is splintered and split up by the other conferences, Fox could very well end up with some of the most attractive names.  ESPN may have sole rights over the SEC, but the SEC only has room for 2 more teams.  The Big 10 and Big 12 can take 8-10 teams between them.

In any event, it is good to see the ACC exploring all of its options.  A network is part of the future revenue puzzle.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
13 Jan 2013

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Final

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Final version, with analysis of the top 10 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (13-1): The SEC proves again that it can take care of business on the national stage.  But Alabama deserves special credit for turning into a dynasty. Wow.
  2. Notre Dame (12-1): The Fighting Irish played a tough schedule and came out 12-0.  Sure, they lost to Alabama.  That just makes them #2.
  3. Ohio State (12-0):  The Buckeyes were idle during bowl season, due to an improvident decision by its athletic director to not sit out last year’s bowl.  Urban Meyer has things going in Columbus though.
  4. Oregon (12-1): A great January for Oregon.  They beat Kansas State by a decent margin and, most importantly, kept Chip Kelly.
  5. Georgia (12-2): Georgia’s only losses were to South Carolina and Alabama.  Hard to argue with that.
  6. South Carolina (11-2): South Carolina lost two games all season–to LSU and Florida.  Gives them the edge over Texas A&M.
  7. Texas A&M (11-2): The Aggies showed that they belonged in the SEC.  The only losses were to LSU and Florida.
  8. Stanford (12-2): The Cardinal have that inexplicable loss to Washington and a loss to Notre Dame.  Otherwise, Stanford beat Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA (twice), Wisconsin, and USC.  That’s all.
  9. Florida (11-2):  The Gators were dismantled by Louisville, but had a very good season overall.  Hard to have Florida State leapfrog them when Florida won the head-to-head game.
  10. Florida State (12-2): Florida State had a great season.  That loss to North Carolina State remains hard to justify though.
  11. Louisville (11-2).
  12. LSU (10-3).
  13. Clemson (11-2).
  14. Kansas State (11-2).
  15. Oklahoma (10-3).
  16. Northwestern (10-3).
  17. Boise State (11-2).
  18. Utah State (11-2).
  19. Northern Illinois (12-2).
  20. Cincinnati (10-3).
  21. Nebraska (10-4).
  22. Kent State (11-3).
  23. Vanderbilt (9-4).
  24. Oregon State (9-4).
  25. Penn State (8-4).

* * *

121.  Illinois (2-10).  The Illini were overmatched in the Big 10 this year.  2013 should be better though.

122. Kentucky (2-10).  Kentucky beat Samford and Kent State.  That Kent State win looks pretty good now!

123. Kansas (1-11).  Kansas was the only Big XII team to not make a bowl.  Going to be a tough rebuilding process.

124. Colorado (1-11).  The Buffaloes actually kept it close against Utah to finish the season.  But there was too little of that in 2012.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
11 Jan 2013

ACC Releases College Football Schedule for 2013.

The Atlantic Coast Conference, set to expand to 14 teams for 2013, has released the football schedule for this fall.

First, the divisions.  The ACC insists on eschewing the geographical split, instead opting for this setup:

Atlantic Division Coastal Division
Boston College Virginia Tech
Clemson Georgia Tech
Florida State Miami
Maryland Virginia
NC State North Carolina
Syracuse Pitt
Wake Forest Duke

Obviously, each team plays every team within its division.  Then, in order to get to 8 total games, each team has a primary crossover and a rotating crossover.  The team’s primary crossovers are listed in the above chart, with Boston College being paired with Virginia Tech, etc.  Syracuse and Pitt will be primary crossovers.

The secondary, rotating  crossovers are not as straightforward.  For 2013, the secondary crossover pairs are: Boston College-North Carolina; Clemson-Virginia; Florida State-Pittsburgh; Maryland-Virginia Tech; NC State-Duke; Syracuse-Georgia Tech; and Wake Forest-Miami.

Pittsburgh begins ACC conference play with home games against Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida State.  It will travel to Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Duke, and Virginia Tech.  Syracuse begins conference play by hosting Boston College, Wake Forest, Clemson, and Pitt.  Syracuse will travel to Florida State, Georgia Tech, Maryland, and North Carolina State.

In notable games, Florida State will travel to Clemson in 2013.  Florida State will host Miami.  Miami will travel to North Carolina.  North Carolina will travel to Georgia Tech.  Georgia Tech will travel to Clemson.  With the ability to host both Florida State and Georgia Tech, Clemson has to be considered the early favorite.  The return of Tajh Boyd helps that too.

The Confidential does not know about you… but football cannot come around again soon enough!!!

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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