The Confidential

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ACC Football Rankings: January 7, 2013

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Next year, we’ll add in Louisville too.  Anyway, this is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of January 7, 2013:

1Florida State (12-2)–The Seminoles took care of business against Northern Illinois.  Only Florida and North Carolina State were able to trip up the Seminoles.

2. Clemson (11-2)–Clemson had itself a nice little season too, losing only to South Carolina and Florida State.  Improved on a very good 2011 season.

3. Syracuse (8-5)–The Orange demolished a good West Virginia team in the Pinstripe Bowl.  The five losses all came to bowl-eligible teams.

4. North Carolina (8-4)–The Tar Heels did get a bowl bid due to sanctions.  Still, this team looks to be on the rise.

5. Miami (7-5)–The Hurricanes once again missed out on a bowl to due self-imposed penalties.  Al Golden has the team pointed in the right direction though.

6. Virginia Tech (7-6)–The Hokies win over Rutgers in the Russell Athletic Bowl gives Virginia Tech the edge over North Carolina State.  The two schools did not play this year.

7. North Carolina State (7-6)–At 7-5, the Wolfpack fired their coach, Tom O’Brien.  And now they are 0-1 in the post-O’Brien era.  Nicely done.

8. Georgia Tech (7-7)–The Yellow Jackets were able to beat USC and its stable of NFL-ready talent.  A nice way to end the 2012 season.

9. Pittsburgh (6-7)The Panthers were relegated to the BBVA Compass Bowl for the second year in a row.  Ole Miss handled them pretty well, winning 38-17.

10. Duke (6-7)–The Blue Devils beat North Carolina to move to 6-2 and bowl-eligibility.  They would never win again.

11. Wake Forest (5-7).

12. Virginia (4-8).

13. Maryland (4-8).

14. Boston College (2-10).

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Proposed ACC Divisions

With the recent addition of Louisville to replace Maryland, the word is that Louisville will just slot into Maryland’s position in the divisions.  What are those divisions?  Who knows?  The non-geographical distribution makes them impossible to remember.  In any event, the Confidential recommends the following divisions:

Atlantic (Coastal rival)

Boston College (NC State)

Wake Forest (Duke)

Syracuse (North Carolina)

Virginia Tech (Virginia)

Louisville (Clemson)

Pittsburgh (Georgia Tech)

Miami (Florida State)

In other words, this would be geographical, except that Wake Forest and Miami slide north and Virginia stays with the South.

The real loser here is Wake Forest, who loses games with its North Carolina-based rivals.  But this is just reality here–Wake Forest is in the worst negotiating position of all teams in the NCAA.  Even Iowa State has its own network now.  You can make arguments for every ACC school to be in some other conference.  But not Wake Forest.  So, with apologies to the Demon Deacons, they just need to suck it up.  Life isn’t fair.  Besides, they also get to be in a division with two private schools.

Virginia gets to be in the South, playing North Carolina and Virginia Tech every year.

Miami gets to play Syracuse and Boston College–Northern exposure every year for those schools.  Florida State gets to be with all Southern-based schools.  Rare trips up north.  Miami and Florida State will play every year.

Were UConn and Cincinnati to ever join… this could be tweaked as follows:

Atlantic (Coastal rival)

Boston College (Wake Forest)

Cincinnati (NC State)

Syracuse (Duke)

UConn (North Carolina)

Virginia Tech (Virginia)

Louisville (Clemson)

Pittsburgh (Georgia Tech)

Miami (Florida State)

Under this scenario, private schools are matched up again.  The basketball is slanted heavily towards the Atlantic.  But any division with Duke and North Carolina is always going to be tough.

In the Confidential’s view, doing whatever one it can to make the divisions logical and easy to remember behooves its short-term and long-term interests.  No matter how hard you try to make divisions competitively balanced, it will not work out perfectly.  So at least use logic and common sense.

What do you think?  Do you prefer the current set-up?  Different idea?

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 18, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of December 18, 2012:

1Duke (9-0)–The Blue Devils are sitting pretty at 9-0, with plenty of good victories.  An easy choice for #1.

2. Syracuse (10-0)–The Orange are 10-0, which is great.  Next up, Temple.  Congrats to Jim Boeheim on win #900 too.

3. Louisville (9-1)–So far, only #1 Duke has toppled Louisville.  With wins over Missouri and Memphis, Louisville has an argument to be #2.  But undefeated trumps one loss.

4.Notre Dame (10-1)The Irish have now beaten Purdue and Kentucky.  That’s good enough for #4 here.

5. Pittsburgh (9-1)--The Panthers are off to a good start, but lacking a real quality win yet.   Only loss is to a very very good Michigan team.

6. Maryland (7-1)–The Terps have been good, losing only to Kentucky.  Still waiting on an impressive win though.  Northwestern is it right now.

7. Miami (6-1)–Not sure why Miami only has 7 games, but they have won 6 of them.  A bad loss, but a nice win over Michigan State.

8.North Carolina State (8-2)–The wins over Stanford and UConn look good.  The two losses are reasonable. 

9. North Carolina (8-2)–At 8-2, the Tar Heels really lack a quality win.  Losses to Butler and Indiana are understandable though.

10. Virginia (8-2)–10 through 12 are a toss-up.  The Wahoos have terrible losses early, but now have wins over Tennessee and Wisconsin.

11. Virginia  Tech (8-2) Va Tech has ugly losses, but a great win–over Oklahoma State.  Gives them the slide edge over Georgia Tech.

12. Georgia Tech (7-2)–No shame in the two losses, but it’s hard to find even a decent win for the Yellow Jackets.  The worst of the two loss teams so far.

13. Clemson (6-3)–The Tigers have tough losses–Gonzaga, Illinois, and Arizona.  Clear edge over the rest.

14. Florida State (6-4)–At 6-4, the Seminoles are still the ACC’s disappointment so far.  Not sure what the deal is.

15. Wake Forest (5-5)–At least Wake is at .500.

16. Boston College (5-5)–At least BC is at .500.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

Nice Article About ACC’s Financial Picture

The Confidential will be light for the next week or so.  Sorry in advance.  There will not be many posts.

Here is a link to check out though.  The ACC might not be able to compete with the Big 10, but it sure is looking good overall.  According to this article, anyway.   Give it a read and let us know what you think.

ACC Goes Bowling: Duke vs. Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl

The bowl season began yesterday with a few battles flying well below the radar.  Moving beyond that mixed metaphor, however, it is time to begin analyzing the various bowl matchups featuring present and future members of the ACC.  Today’s featured matchup is the Belk Bowl, which will feature Duke and Cincinnati.  The game will be played at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, December 27.

How they got here (courtesy of http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Sked2012.htm) :

Duke (ACC)

9/1 Sat vs. Florida International W 46 26
9/8 Sat @ Stanford L 13 50
9/15 Sat vs. North Carolina Central W 54 17
9/22 Sat vs. Memphis W 38 14
9/29 Sat @ *Wake Forest W 34 27
10/6 Sat vs. *Virginia W 42 17
10/13 Sat @ *Virginia Tech L 20 41
10/20 Sat vs. *North Carolina W 33 30
10/27 Sat @ *Florida State L 7 48
11/3 Sat vs. *Clemson L 20 56
11/17 Sat @ *Georgia Tech L 24 42
11/24 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida) L 45 52
12/27 Thu vs. Cincinnati @ Charlotte, NC Belk Bowl

6-6

376 420

Cincinnati (Big East)

9/6 Thu vs. *Pittsburgh W 34 10
9/15 Sat vs. Delaware State W 23 7
9/29 Sat vs. Virginia Tech W 27 24 @ Landover, MD
10/6 Sat vs. Miami (Ohio) W 52 14
10/13 Sat vs. Fordham W 49 17
10/20 Sat @ Toledo L 23 29
10/26 Fri @ *Louisville L 31 34
11/3 Sat vs. *Syracuse W 35 24
11/10 Sat @ *Temple W 34 10
11/17 Sat vs. *Rutgers L 3 10
11/23 Fri vs. *South Florida W 27 10
12/1 Sat @ *Connecticut W 34 17
12/27 Thu vs. Duke @ Charlotte, NC Belk Bowl

9-3

372 206

Key Stats:

PASSING YARDS

Cincinnati:  231.0 pg, 63rd Overall
Duke: 277.6 pg, 32nd Overall

RUSHING YARDS

Cincinnati: 199.8 pg, 32nd Overall
Duke: 119.0 pg, 107th Overall

POINTS FOR

Cincinnati: 31.0 pg, 48th Overall
Duke: 31.3 pg, 45th Overall

POINTS AGAINST

Cincinnati: 17.2 pg, 12th Overall

Duke: 35.0, 104th Overall
Analysis:
While the Confidential always likes to be a “homer” if possible.  So perhaps the analysis here is slanted by that.
Duke has played a much tougher schedule, but they lost many of the games against good opponents.  Often, by a lot.  Duke beat one bowl team, North Carolina.  Cincinnati beat three, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech.
But one factor favoring Duke in this game is that Cincy has lost its coach, Butch Jones.  We have seen Cincinnati (and many other teams) come out flat when playing a bowl game under such circumstances.  On the other hand, West Virginia rode Bill Stewart to a Fiesta Bowl victory and the removal of his interim head coach tag.  So even that one negative aspect is more of a question mark than certainty.
Another factor favoring Duke is the proximity to the location.  Duke fans should be relishing this opportunity to see the Blue Devils in this game.  They will have home field advantage.  Too much emotion on Duke’s side for this one.
Prediction:  Duke 28, Cincinnati 27.

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 10, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of December 10, 2012:

1Duke (9-0)–The Blue Devils are hated by many.  But you cannot deny how successful this season has gone.  An impressive 9-0.

2. Syracuse (8-0)–The Orange have two good victories, but no truly great ones.  A decent OOC slate, but the real meat comes in the Big East regular season.

3. Louisville (8-1)–The ACC’s newest addition has only lost to Duke.  A win over Missouri is the big victory on the schedule.

4.Pittsburgh (9-1)--The Panthers are looking to rebound after last year’s disappointing season.  Only loss is to a very very good Michigan team.

5. Notre Dame (8-1)–The Irish lost to St. Joseph’s, which is not uber-embarrassing.  Still, that has them behind several teams.  The win over Kentucky was nice, but less impressive now.

6. Maryland (7-1)–The Terps have been good, losing only to Kentucky.  Still waiting on an impressive win though.

7. North Carolina State (6-2)–The Wolfpack have been somewhat disappointing at only 6-2.  But the losses are not awful and they do have a win over surprising UConn.

8.Virginia Tech (7-1)–Despite losing to WVU, the Hokies have decent wins, such as Iowa and Oklahoma State.  Not too bad.

9. North Carolina (7-2)–As good as 7-2 looks, the Tar Heels have not beaten anyone of note.  The best win might be Mississippi State, a lower tier SEC team.

10. Miami (5-1)–Miami’s win over Michigan State was very impressive.  Need to see the Hurricanes against major competition a few more times before having them elevate over the teams ahead of them.

11. Virginia (8-2)The Wahoos struggled in the first few games, but are rounding into form.  With wins over Tennessee and Wisconsin, look for this team to rise to the top half.

12. Georgia Tech (6-2)–No shame in the two losses, but it’s hard to find even a decent win for the Yellow Jackets.  Time will tell.

13. Clemson (5-3)–The Tigers have tough losses–Gonzaga, Illinois, and Arizona.  This team may peak late in the season.

14. Florida State (5-4)–At 5-4, the Seminoles are easily the ACC’s disappointment so far.  The losses to Mercer and South Alabama stand out.

15. Wake Forest (4-5)–The Demon Deacons did beat Mercer, but few other teams.  The losses are not horrible, but just way too many to get to NIT-level play.

16. Boston College (4-5)-Losses to Charleston and Bryant land Boston College in its familiar, cellar position.  So it goes in Beantown.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

Exit Fees and Liquidated Damages

Many people are confident that the ACC will be able to enforce its exit fee against Maryland.  Many people are confident that the ACC will not be able to enforce its exit fee against Maryland.  Regardless of which side is correct, it is important to understand the issue.

Most helpful to a non-lawyer is this recent article from the businessofcollegesports.com.  The article provides a great layman’s understanding of something called liquidated damages:

In legal terms, conference exit fees are known as liquidated damages.  Liquidated damages provisions are commonly added to contracts.  They set the amount a party to the contract must pay in the event it breaches the contract.  Liquidated damages provisions are useful because they theoretically save the parties the time and expense of litigating the amount of damages caused by the breach.

But, the amount of liquidated damages specified in a contract cannot be randomly selected.  Courts will generally only enforce liquidated damages provisions if (1) the anticipated damages in the event of a breach are difficult to ascertain at the time of contracting, and (2) the amount of liquidated damages is a reasonable estimate of the actual damages that would likely be caused by a breach.  If a liquidated damages provision does not meet this test it is deemed a penalty and is unenforceable.

The ACC’s current exit fee is not $50,000,000.  Instead, as the article notes, the ACC’s exit fee is “three times the conference’s total operating budget at the time of withdrawal.”  As for Maryland, this means the amount is roughly $52M.

Where the Confidential differs is the analysis of whether the exit fees satisfy (1) and (2).  The author does not seem to question (1).  Indeed, how exactly does one quantify the damages where a founding member of a conference leaves?  With all the conference realignment discussion, people talk about TV revenue.  But what about the unquantifiable damage to a conference when it is perceived to be unstable?  When there are daily rumors regarding this or that member leaving?  When there are discussions about whether the conference will cease to exist.  When schools like Wake Forest have, really, no other option at all in the conference realignment scenario.  Where it is questionable whether Pitt, BC, Syracuse, and other schools are certain to have a landing spot.  Does ESPN want to renegotiate now, when it might have to renegotiate in two weeks if two schools leave?  Do kids want to play for a school that may go from “ACC,” as it is currently thought of,” to its current weakened position in comparison to other conferences?  If UVA and Georgia Tech leave the ACC, what does that do for Florida State’s academic reputation?  How can you quantify these things?

You cannot.  Which is where exit fees come from.  Instead of trying to figure that all out, you agree on a number ahead of time.

As for (2), the article states “that [t]he requirement to pay three times the conference’s operating budget does not appear to be related in any way to the actual amount of damages the ACC would suffer if a member withdraws.”  Liquidated damages clauses often just state a sum certain.  The ACC provision is actually tethered to something that relates to the size and wealth of the ACC at the time a member departs.  If the ACC grows and becomes even more successful, it has more to lose.  If the ACC contracts, it has less to lose and the liquidated damages (exit fees) decrease.  Moreover, the schools have a say in the conference’s operating budget.  If the schools want the conference to scale back operations, they can do so.

Perhaps the ACC could have tied its exit fees to TV revenue.  But this excludes the damage to the ACC’s name.  Is there any question that swapping Louisville for Maryland is a loss with respect to academics, cohesion, and the appearance of the ACC?  The ACC has been damaged beyond anything that can be measured in TV revenue.  The ACC is perceived to be on life support, forcing Presidents to make statements regarding rumors, etc.  Maybe a more reasonable number would be 1 or 2 or 1.5 times the operating budget, but the operating budget is a conservative measure to calculate damages.

Moreover, people analyzing this situation speak in terms of “black and white.”  Lawyers, at least good ones, know that life (and the law) are not black and white.  As the litigation moves forward, the parties will likely have a sense as to where the judge is leaning on legal issues.  Will the judge allow the jury to resolve the question of whether the exit fee is reasonable?  Will the judge decide it as a matter of law? On an issue like this, the judge is likely to defer a definitive ruling and give the parties a chance to settle based on an expectation of what these rulings would be.  In the meantime, nobody should presume that a certain result is inevitable.  It is doubtful that there will even be a result.  Someone will blink.

 

Florida State & Expansion (Update)

Frank the Tank is now fanning the fires with respect to a Florida State move to the Big 10.

But the ACC Presidents decided to jointly issue a statement pledging allegiance to the ACC.  The text is as follows:

“We, the undersigned presidents of the Atlantic Coast Conference, wish to express our commitment to preserve and protect the future of our outstanding league.  We want to be clear that the speculation about ACC schools in negotiations or considering alternatives to the ACC are totally false.  The presidents of the ACC are united in our commitment to a strong and enduring conference.  The ACC has long been a leader in intercollegiate athletics, both academically and athletically, and the constitution of our existing and future member schools will maintain the ACC’s position as one of the nation’s premier conferences.”

Obviously, this is not a binding contract or anything.  But it is noteworthy that some of the most desirable expansion targets initiated this process.  Regardless of is value, it is an unprecedented move.  This is negative, because such moves have not previously been necessary.  It is positive because the Presidents are trying to assure each other that they do not need to try to beat each other to the punch.  Unless and until there is a grant of rights (which the Confidential believes is not insurmountable), the rumors are not likely to stop.  Indeed, one wonders how much of the realignment rumor mill is being created by those who recruit against the ACC.

 

Is Florida State the Next to Leave the ACC?

With the Georgia Tech rumors squashed over the weekend, the rumor mill has turned back to Florida State.  This time, it is a rumor that Florida State is shopping itself around.  You can take the source for whatever it is worth.

One does have to keep in mind that the Florida State fan base is putting a lot of pressure on the administration here.  Somehow, they have rationalized that their football failures are based on lack of revenue, rather than simple things like poor coaching and bad luck. The best case scenario is that Florida State’s leadership has to come out and say that they are happy with the ACC.  This is imperfect because it will just anger the fan base more.  The worst case scenario, of course, is that where there is smoke, there is fire.  Welcome to the Big Ten’s vision of college football–where money is more important than anything else.

The reality is that, unless and until someone does something to stabilize the ACC, it is just going to be one rumor after another.

So what could possible stabilize the ACC?  The Confidential thinks that the only thing that could possible stabilize the ACC is for ESPN to step up and make the ACC a legitimate player from a revenue standpoint.  In the absence of that, there will not be a grant of rights, which would be significantly more protective than the exit fee (whatever it is).  At the very least, the ACC and ESPN should negotiate to allow Florida State to keep its precious Tier III rights.  Throw a dog a bone, even if it is whining for no reason.

ACC Football Predictions for December 1, 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 8-2, improvidently trusting Clemson and Florida State, improving the overall record to a respectable 86-32.  Pretty interesting game tonight, as the ACC’s Louisville battles the Big Ten’s Rutgers in a battle for the Big East Championship.  On to the week 14 predictions:

Pittsburgh (5-6) @ South Florida (3-9), 7:00 p.m.  The Panthers are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  The Bulls are over-matched, but playing on Senior Night for an embattled head coach.  This probably should go one of two ways, with the emotion for South Florida either being very high or very low.  So the Confidential with out-think itself by predicting the emotion to be merely medium.  If so, Pitt wins.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, South Florida 13.

ACC Championship Game

#13 Florida State (10-2) v Georgia Tech (6-6), 8:00 p.m.  The ACC having a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the BCS is only good to the extent that it means a bigger payout.  In all other respects, it would be an embarrassment.  Of course, if Georgia Tech loses, they would seek a waiver to play in a bowl game, despite being 6-7.  In the end, they could end up 6-8.  And that’s your ACC Championship Game entrant for the Coastal Division everyone!  Florida State, however, lost disappointingly to Florida.  A few coaches are either leaving or interviewing for head coach positions elsewhere.  Promotions are nice, but distracting.  Closer than expected here.  Prediction: Florida State 35, Georgia Tech 24.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

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