The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the category “Louisville Correspondent”

Louisville Basketball Preview

The Louisville Cardinals enters the 2013-14 basketball season ranked in the top 3 and as one of the favorites to win the national championship. If that happens, the Cards would be the first team to repeat as national champions since the 2007 Florida Gators and would be the smallest team to win the title in nearly 50 years.

Hall of Fame head coach Rick Pitino will have to replace two key starters from last seasons team, PG Peyton Siva and C Gorgui Dieng. Siva finished his career at U of L as arguably the Cards greatest point guard. His leadership and playmaking skills at both ends of the court will be missed. Dieng left early and was a first round pick in the NBA draft. His shot blocking ability and overall post presence will be greatly missed.

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Extortion & Suspensions Hit Louisville

Local reports here in Louisville are saying  that Thomas Ray of Jackson, Mississippi, 35, has been arrested and indicted on charges that he tried to extort 3.5 million dollars from the University of Louisville in April 2013. Ray contacted U of L AD Tom Jurich claiming to have evidence tying U of L to point shaving. It is also being reported that Ray has a history of extortion attempts.  Jurich has acknowledge that he has heard that Ray was arrested but hasn’t commented further.

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Card Nation Address

Hello my fellow Louisville and college sports fans. The state of Card Nation can be described in one word, hopeful. Besides scoring enough style points this Cardinal football team has done all that they can do. They are 5-0 and currently ranked 8th in the country. All of this is pretty incredible considering that just four years ago they were struggling just to make a bowl game. It’s been a rapid climb back to the top, thanks to coach Strong. Cards fans came into this season with a shot at the national championship dancing in their heads, so where do they stand after week six?

 

We knew the Cards were along shot for a title shot and that their destiny wasn’t solely in their own hands. That they would need help from their scheduled teams, from their conference and that they would need teams ahead of them to lose. So far none of this has happened. The American Conference (AAC) has been worse than expected, who knew that was possible. The two best teams the Cards have played are Kentucky and Ohio. It’s understandable to wonder what if Ohio State had balls and chose to play the Cards instead of San Diego St? Or what if ESPN could have swooped Virginia Tech for the Cards in the opener against Alabama? What if the Big East didn’t fall apart and West Virginia and TCU was still on the schedule? There’s a lot of ifs and buts about the schedule but it is what it is.

So why do I describe Card Nation as hopeful? There are some positives to look forward to.  Besides joining the ACC next season and having teams such as Florida St, Clemson, Miami and Notre Dame on the schedule and opening the 2015 season against Auburn, there are some positives for this season as well. The Cards have the best conference teams ahead of them yet so the schedule will get more difficult, starting this Thursday night against Rutgers (4-1 1-0) at home. On 10-18 Central Florida (4-1 1-0) visits Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. On 11-16 Houston (4-0 1-0) comes to town before the Cards finish the season at Cincinnati (3-2 0-1).

A shot at the national championship may be out of their reach but a second straight BCS Bowl bid, third overall, is well within their grasp. Current projections include Florida State in the Orange, Baylor in the Fiesta and South Carolina in the Sugar. One can’t discount the Rose just yet either. Since the Cards defeated Alabama in the Fiesta back in the 90’s, pre BCS era, the Rose remains the only BCS caliber bowl that they haven’t won.

If the Cards can’t play for the championship then we still have a couple of ACC teams to pull for. The current BCS projections has two ACC teams ranked in the top six. Alabama has a solid lock on the top spot but what happens when/if they lose? Here are the BCS projected top ten according to BCSGuru.com.

1 Alabama 0.9980, 2 Oregon 0.9107, 3 Clemson 0.8750, 4 Stanford 0.8661, 5 Ohio State 0.7804, 6 Florida St 0.7704, 7 Georgia 0.7671, 8 Oklahoma 0.6502, 9 Louisville 0.6191, 10 LSU 0.6111

The actual BCS rankings will be released after week 7.

Here are the current AAC standings

1 Louisville 5-0 1-0

2 Houston 4-0 1-0

3 Rutgers 4-1 1-0 (beat Arkansas)

4 Central Fla 4-1 1-0 (beat Penn St, lost to South Carolina)

5 USF 1-4 1-0

6 UConn 0-4 0-0

7 Cincinnati 3-2 0-1

8 Memphis 1-3 0-1

9 SMU 1-4 0-1 (Louisville does not play this year, 8 game schedule)

10 Temple 0-5 0-2

Breaking News on D4

The board of reps for D1 has proposed D4. Here is the CBS article. What are your thoughts?
http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/writer/dennis-dodd/23874003/faculty-athletics-representatives-formally-proposes-division-4-for-ncaa

ACC BCS Championship Odds

What are the odds of an ACC team winning the BCS national championship this year? How has the odds changed since the preseason? The Vegas odds makers are still favoring an Alabama and Oregon final with Ohio State in third but what do they have to say about the ACC?

Coming into the season Louisville actually had the best odds of any ACC team at 16-1 which had them tied at 4th nationally. Although they have moved up in the polls from 9th to 6th their odds have dropped to 25-1 which puts them tied for 11th nationally and 4th in the ACC.

Clemson began the season with 20-1 odds for 9th nationally. Their odds have improved to 15-1 which keeps them 9th nationally and 2nd in the ACC.

Florida State shared the same preseason odds with Clemson but have improved their odds to 12-1. They now share the same odds with Stanford and LSU who are tied at 4th nationally.

Notre Dame has fallen from 50-1 to 250-1 after their loss. Miami has gone the other way, improving their odds from 33-1 to 18-1. They began 14th nationally but now find themselves in the top 10 and third best in the ACC.

By the current odds the ACC and the Pac each have three teams in the top ten nationally. The SEC and the B1G each have two with the Big 12 trailing with just one. True we are only three weeks into the season but the odds show that the ACC is holding their own against the other power conferences. The big boys in the ACC have come to play this year and has the ACC among the top three conferences.

Here are the top ten odds according to Vegas Insider for this week.

1 Alabama 2-1
2 Oregon 9-2
3 Ohio Sate 11-2
4 Stanford 12-1
4 Florida St 12-1
4  LSU 12-1
7 Michigan 15-1
7 Oklahoma St 15-1
7 Clemson 15-1
10 Miami 18-1

Other ACC notabes;
Louisville 25-1 (tied at 11th nationally.)
Notre Dame 250-1
Georgia Tech 300-1
Virginia Tech 1000-1
North Carolina 5000-1

This isn’t intended for gambling purposes but to measure the ACC chances of winning a national championship compared to the rest of the country.

Report Card: Governors Cup review.

The Louisville Cardinals came away with an unimpressive 27-13 victory over the Kentucky Wildcats in their anual rivalry game for the Governors Cup trophy. This extends their win streak to 3 games over the Cats. Read more…

Governors Cup Preview

The ACC is home to several marquee rivalries, both in and out of conference. N Carolina & Duke, Fla State & Florida, Clemson & S Carolina and now Louisville & Kentucky. This Saturday the Battle for the Governors Cup resumes in Lexington, Ky. The Cards are currently a 14.5 point favorite but the underdogs have faired well recently.

This is a big game for U of L as they need to finish 12-0 to have a chance at a national championship. The final score will be used for or against them as it will be compared to UK future SEC opponents final margin.

It is a big game for UK as new head coach Mark Stoops looks to make an impact and to erase their humilating season opening loss to Western Ky. UK has historically struggled against SEC competition so it is dire that they win their OOC games. Should they pull off the upset I could see their AD waiving a lifetime contract at Stoops during his post game interview.

The Cards will look to continue Teddy Bridgewaters Heisman campaign and to look for one of their three runningbacks to step forward and finally take control of the #1 spot. Max Smith will make his second start and look to deliver the “air raid” offense their fans were promised in the preseason.

U of L and UK first met 1912 in football and 1913 in basketball. UK leads the overall football series 14-11 after winning the first seven meetings (1912-15, 22, 24 and 1994). After UK dominated the first six games, holding U of L scoreless, they stopped playing. In 1994, after 70 years, they began the modern era of the series with U of L holding an 11-8 advantage. The Cards has won the last two meetings, includung 32-14 last year.

Louisvilles move to the ACC has already effected this rivalry. It was recently announced that starting next season this game will be moved to the last game of the year as part of the ACC/SEC challenge. Tradionally this has been the opening game of the year to help build the local hype during the offseason which has helped to improve the quality of football in the state. UK later moved it to the third game when in Lexington. I loved this as the opening game but this should help preserve the game when/if the SEC goes to nine games.

Finally my game prediction. Stoops has the Cats on the right path as reflected by his recruiting but he will need a couple of more years. Teddy and the AFROS should easily be able to pick apart the Cats thin secondary. The Cards has the advantage at nearly every position. If the Cards can jump out to an early lead and silence the Commonwealth Stadium crowd it will be a blow out, if not the Cards still win. The Cards win 38-14.

Louisville 2013 Football Preview

The Louisville Cardinals come into the 2013 football season with a top 10 ranking and lofty expectations after their stunning upset of #3 Florida in the Sugar Bowl. Being the favorite in all of their games has the fans dreaming of an undefeated season and a possible shot at the national championship. Perhaps their biggest challenge will be overcoming complacency. To help keep the team focus they will wear wristbands that say “earn it”. Earn it has been often mentioned during August camp and the players seem to be buying in, some even turning away from the social media. To give them more drive and focus is the lingering memory of their two upset loses last season to Syracuse and UConn. With only a few starters missing from last year team the 2013 Cardinals should be even better. Read more…

Pitt 2013 Football Preview

Its time! The college football season will be here soon and we wont have to rely on MLB or ESPNs replays of games from last season to get our sports fix. It is, thank God, the FINAL year of the BCS and the year when we get to see the on the field effect of conference realignment. The ACC welcomes Pitt, Syracuse and Notre Dame into the conference, well most of Notre Dame. Lets take a look at the Pitt Panthers.

Just like last season, the last few years has been a roller coaster ride for the Panthers football team. Through all the coaching changes Paul Chryst is ready for his second year as head coach. Pitt finished last season 6-7 (3-4 in the Big East) and with a loss to Ole Miss in the BBVA Compass Bowl 38-17. The lows began with a loss to Youngstown St of the FCS 31-27 but they rebounded to beat Virginia Tech and then #19 Rutgers. There was also a couple of heartbreaking losses as well, a 1 point loss to Syracuse and a 3 overtime loss to the eventual national runner-up Notre Dame. Can Pitt steady the ride in 2013?

 

This will be the first time in four years that they will not be playing in a new system but they will be playing in a new conference. One of the glaring stats from last season that most be improved on is sacks allowed, they gave up 38 and were last in the Big East. Some bright spots from last season was their BE leading 10 turnovers and their 52.5% opponent TD rate in the red zone.

Pitt will have 13 returning starters (5 offense & 8 defense) but will be without QB Tino Sunseri, RB Ray Graham and RB Rushell Shell. Key returners are S Jason Hendricks (90 tackles 6 Int.), DT Aaron Donald (64 tackles 18.5 TFL 5.5 sacks), LB Todd Thomas (59 tackles) and WR Devin Street (73 Rec.). They are also bringing in a solid recruiting class that features OT Dorian Johnson, WR Tyler Boyd, QB TraVon Chapman and DT Tyrique Jarrett.

Finding reliable starters at QB and at RB will be crucial for the Panthers but they have alternatives. At QB will be ether redshirt freshman Chad Voytik or senior Tom Savage. With TraVon they should have 3 quality QB to chose from. Isaac Bennett appears to be poised as the starting RB after a solid preseason game. Malcolm Crocket and Desmond Brown would be his backups. This trio combined for only 41 carries in 2012. With the questions at QB and RB and with the loss of their #2 receiver, the offense looks to be the weakness of the team.

Tom Savage is 6-5 and has a strong arm but he hasn’t played since 2010 with Rutgers. At Rutgers he was a freshman All-American but struggled during his sophomore year. He is 192-368 for 2732 yds with 16 TD for his career. He led Rutgers to a 45-24 victory against UCF in the 2009 St. Petersburg Bowl in his freshman year. After a falling out with the Rutgers coaching staff he transferred to Arizona but came to Pitt instead after a coaching change at Arizona. This will be his last year of eligibility. He was a 5 star recruit coming out of high school.

The defense is the clear strength of this team as they return 7 of their top 8 tacklers and return their top leaders in INT and sacks. Donald and Hendricks are hyped as preseason All-Conference selections.

Following a tough season opener against Florida St. the schedule could be set up to allow them to get their feet set under them during the first part of the year before ending with 5 tough games. The key to a successful 2013 for Pitt will be finding a QB and RB to step up and take control of the starting position. If this happens then an 8 win season is certainly possible but I will predict them to finish 7-5 (4-4) and in the mid pack of the ACC, which is certainly a good accomplishment in the tougher conference.

Here is a look at the Pitt 2013 football schedule;

Sept 2 Florida St              its hard to pick against FSU here.

Sept 14 New Mexico      should be the start of a winning streak.

Sept 21 @ Duke              the Pitt defense should be enough to get the W.

Sept 28 Virginia              playing at home gives the Panthers the edge.

Oct  12 @ Virginia Tech VT gets revenge from last season at home.

Oct  19 Old Dominion   Pitt will need to avoid a Youngstown St repeat.

Oct  26 @ Navy               A must win game for Pitt.

Nov  2 @ Georgia Tech  GT playing at home gives them the edge.

Nov 9 Notre Dame         ND will be favored.

Nov 16 N Carolina          Pitt has the home field advantage here.

Nov 23 @ Syracuse        A possible W and will be needed to reach 8 on the year

Nov 29 Miami                another crucial game for Pitt to get 8.

ACC Lacrosse and the 6th team

There is little doubt that the ACC is the elite conference in lacrosse, placing a current member in the championship game 12 times since 2000, so an automatic birth into the tournament isn’t a necessity but would be a nice luxury to have. With Maryland departure in 2014 they will need to find a 6th team to go along with Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Syracuse and Notre Dame but who that will be is anyone’s guess. There are several candidates within the ACC of who can fill this role with each bringing different arguments as to why they are the better choice. With lacrosse exploding at the high school level in Florida makes Florida St and Miami logical candidates. Massachusetts is a lacrosse hot bed and Boston College played in the ACC before going to the MCLA. A case could be made for NC State and Clemson as well but perhaps the front runner for the 6th spot is the ACC-to-be Louisville Cardinals with their thriving athletic program. Typically sports fans associate Louisville with basketball and football and not lacrosse, so why Louisville?

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