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07 Oct 2015

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 5/6

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 5) and the Week that will be (Week 6) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 5?

  • HHuntley (NC State): I think it goes back to a stat I referenced in my recap. NC State running backs only received 20 carries with Matt Dayes getting 19. The running game has been a strong point for the entire season and it was weird to see the coaching staff go away from it.
  • Lenville (Louisville):The Cards defense stopped the Packs run game & the offense ran for 200+ yards. It was a good win for the Cards as they were able to keep in check an explosive NC State offense. Both quarterbacks struggled with their accuracy throwing the ball due to the wet weather but the Cards were able to grind out a 20-13 victory. The Pack did break the Cards defensive streak of 17 straight games with an INT.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): No new injuries during the bye week, as well as the return of QB Eric Dungey and Erv Phillips are good signs for the Syracuse offense.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): Backup QB Mitch Trubisky had a record setting performance, the Mack Hollins we know and love reappeared, passing defense was stout (even though Delaware only threw 10 times they were held to 24 years passing), and third down conversions.
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 6?
  • HHuntley (NC State): NC State gets up for big games, no question. I hope to see them get up and at least be competitive against VT on Friday night. Getting blown out on national TV is never fun.
  • Lenville (Louisville): The Cards need to work on their OL & QB play during this bye week before playing @ FSU.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Can the offense score 27+ points?  They have been averaging 28 ppg against FBS foes.  Can the defensive secondary perform better in isolation than against the prior three FBS foes?  Stopping the run is great; stopping the run and getting gouged by the pass is only going to work for so long.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): We’re on a bye so getting rest and healing up for the ACC Coastal push is what I want to see.

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 6?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Clemson really established themselves as the class of the ACC this week. I was a doubter, but I really think they’re better than FSU this year. Even though that last quarter said otherwise, Clemson really owned the that game in less than perfect conditions. Hats off to them. Also, UNC looked good against GT this weekend. Who thought they’d be in the driver’s seat for the Coastal?
  • Lenville (Louisville): Pittsburgh winning at Virginia Tech. It was a tale of 2 teams, Pitt finding stability with yet another new coach & VT seeing the Beamer era falling apart around them.
  • Commander (Syracuse): The fact that Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech are at the bottom of the Coastal.  I get that the Coastal is apparently never going to be Miami’s to win.  But it has been the “Techs” that have carried the division most years.  Even more surprising–it is hoops powerhouses Duke and UNC that are streaking ahead of the pack so far.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): That’s a tie for both us and Clemson for different reasons. Clemson held on and got a much needed victory in prime time that puts it squarely in the conversation for the College Football Playoff. North Carolina won in Atlanta for the first time since 1997 after trailing 21-0 (the largest comeback in school history).
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): I’ll stick with my prediction that 4 conference champions will get in the playoffs. I think at this point, the SEC will get left out. I’ve got Ohio State, TCU, Utah, and Clemson. Obviously, Michigan State and Baylor could get in if they beat their respective conference opponents. The “SEC meat grinder” has really taken its toll on those teams in the polls and they may miss the playoffs because of it.
  • Lenville (Louisville): The B1G has been far from impressive & the SEC certainly hasn’t dominated. The PAC is down to only Utah & Cal as their lone undefeated teams, I’m seeing a lot of parity this season. The CFP committee is going to have a tough job this year, luckily we are only in week 6. Just picking from the undefeated, I would put Clemson, Utah, Ohio St & LSU in with Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor, Florida & Michigan St banging on the door. In the end I expect the PAC to be left out with the Big 12 champ taking their place.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Right now?  Ohio State, TCU, LSU, and Clemson.  By season’s end?  Ohio State, Alabama, LSU, and Baylor.  This means that the ACC and Pac-12 get shut out, with two SEC teams getting in.  The ACC is actually deeper this year than ever before.  This makes it that much less likely that Florida State and Clemson can run the table.  Plus, they play each other and one more SEC opponent.  Meanwhile, not buying into Utah.  Michigan State might displace an SEC school or Ohio State, but they have an additional tough game with Michigan trending up under Harbaugh.  Baylor-TCU is a tossup.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC):Baylor, Utah (whatttt?), Clemson, and Florida.  I could be the lone wolf here, but OSU, MSU, and Michigan all being in the same division could be setting them up for a shocker come December. Michigan has to play both OSU and MSU at home and right now I look to Michigan to be the Big 10 spoiler.  Both TCU and Baylor have to play each other AND Oklahoma before the end of the season with no conference title game. Right now I give the edge to Baylor based on absolutely nothing other than winning point margins. Texas is a mess so I don’t count that point margin for TCU yet.  Utah has a manageable schedule and Clemson just needs to get past NC State, FSU, and Miami. Easy right? Not in the least but if they do then look for them to in that Top 4.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
06 Oct 2015
2 Comments

The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: October 6, 2015

Here is this week’s Confidential Correspondents Football Poll!  Still hard to differentiate a lot of these teams… even at the bottom.

13-15. Wake Forest (2-3); Virginia (1-3), and Virginia Tech (2-3)(0 points).  Welp, these three teams did not receive ANY votes.  Nothing to say, other than the obvious–only wins will change that.

12  Boston College (2-2)(5 points).  So far, BC has lost to undefeated Florida State and once-defeated Duke.  And somehow folks have Louisville, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State ranked above them.

11. Georgia Tech (2-3) (7 points).  With losses to Notre Dame, Duke, and North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets difficult season is going even worse than expected.  No rest for the weary as they must travel to Clemson next.  With Florida State and Georgia on the schedule, bowl eligibility is not a certainty.

10. Miami (3-1, 9 points).  From 4 to 10, as the correspondents recognize that, once again, Miami is just not ready to return to prominence.  A loss at Cincinnati is not the end of the world.  But, needless to say, you are not a playoff team if you cannot beat ANY of the AAC teams on the road.  The idea of Miami as a football powerhouse is simply as obsolete as referring to DePaul as a basketball powerhouse.  An entire generation simply does not remember “the U” that way.

9. North Carolina State (4-1, 10 points).  We mocked NC State’s schedule.  Deep down, however, we wondered if they could be a very good football team.  The loss to 1-3 Louisville is more reasonable in real life than the records suggest.  With trips to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest (see above), this team could reach bowl eligibility by mid-October.

8. Pittsburgh (3-1, 13 points).  After Iowa’s upset of Wisconsin, the Pitt loss to the Hawkeyes is not looking nearly as bad.  And the Panthers welcome Virginia to town this week, a realistic chance at getting to 4-1.

7.  Louisville (2-3, 17 points).  Yes, two correspondents from Louisville lead to such things as the Cardinals being the only team below .500 in the top 10–and they are ranked #7 overall.  In fairness, the Louisville schedule was very frontloaded–with a back six of BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Virginia, Pitt, and Kentucky.  Much more daunting in hoops than the gridiron.  With Florida State up next in two weeks, Louisville may be 2-4 heading into that back half.

6.  Syracuse (3-1, 22 points).  Winston Wolf had a particularly relevant quote in Pulp Fiction about getting excited prematurely.  In other words, at 3-1, Syracuse has done exactly what was expected–even if Syracuse fans feared it might not happen.  Now it comes down to whether Syracuse can exceed expectations the rest of the way.  A trip to South Florida is the last OOC game and the first road game.  The Orange cannot afford to lose this game.

5. UNC (4-1, 23 points).  All of the sudden, North Carolina is making some serious noise in the Coastal.  There is a potential Duke-UNC showdown for the division title looming.  You know, just like ACC leadership expected when it added Miami, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh to that division.  Kudos to the Tar Heels for taking care of business so far.

4. Duke (4-1, 34 points).  The loss to Northwestern suddenly does not look so bad.  It was not an indication that Duke was retreating into irrelevance again.  Even better, Duke has a trip to Army coming up.  This will be a tough matchup…tougher than one might expect.  Duke’s defense will have to continue to carry the day.  So far, this has not been a problem.

3.  Notre Dame (4-1, 41 points).  The Fighting Irish played valiantly in Death Valley, but this team is not ready for the playoff.  Moreover, injuries are really starting to take a toll.  Still, this is a team that could very well get back to and stay in the top 10 all season long.  USC and Stanford are the only remaining ranked foes.

2. Florida State (4-0, 44 points).  Florida State has not really looked great in a few seasons now, right?  Seriously, has this team overwhelmed any competent opponent since the national title?  At the same time, the Seminoles’ record speaks for itself over that same span.  It will be interesting to see what FSU does with hapless Miami this week.  Will the Hurricanes out-effort FSU and stay in the game?  Or will FSU be up for the game and put its rival out if its misery early?

1. Clemson (4-0, 50 points, 5 first place vote).  Clemson beat Notre Dame.  In doing so, it made this poll very easy—as the Tigers were a unanimous #!.  No other position had unanimity.  But there are still 9 games standing between Clemson and the playoffs.  Some will be obviously difficult (FSU, South Carolina).  But it is games against desperate opponents–as in Georgia Tech this week–that has burst the Clemson bubble in years’ past.  Has Dabo Swinney eliminated this from the program?  We will see soon enough.

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
01 Oct 2015

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 4/5

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 4) and the Week that will be (Week 5) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 4?

  • HHuntley (NC State): NC State absolutely destroyed South Alabama. They totaled 586 yards of total offense. Four players had at least two touchdowns and two had more than 100 yards rushing. The most notable thing is just how well the team is playing right now. Personally, I’m excited to see us take on an ACC team this week.
  • Lenville (Louisville):Getting the first W. At this point Louisville was supposed to be 2-2 but are a few plays away from 4-0. Freshman Lamar Jackson got a lot of playing time at QB & appears that he will be the starter from here on. Junior WR James Quick made his return since suffering an injury in the first game.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): The fact that SEC refs called more penalties against LSU than Syracuse?  Lest there be any doubt, if this game was close in a crucial moment, the penalty gap would have narrowed.  Beyond that, the fact that Syracuse was able to move the ball at all against a fast LSU defense bodes somewhat well.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): Backup QB Mitch Trubisky had a record setting performance, the Mack Hollins we know and love reappeared, passing defense was stout (even though Delaware only threw 10 times they were held to 24 years passing), and third down conversions.
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 5?
  • HHuntley (NC State): To play a real team! I feel like an NFL fan who just suffered four weeks of preseason exhibitions (hello Frank Beamer). This week should tell us just how good NC State can be this season. Louisville is not a bad team, even though their record may suggest otherwise.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Continued improvement. Samford was the lone cupcake on the schedule & it’s all conference play from here until Kentucky to finish the season. Jackson had a bad start against Houston, how well he do at NC State this weekend?
  • Commander (Syracuse): Healing of injuries and no new ones.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): An improved rush defense, please. Since the Ga Tech game hasn’t happened yet I’m going to chalk that woe on preparation for them. But if something isn’t tweaked between now and Saturday it’s going to be a long day in Atlanta. 


3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 3?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Duke is the obvious answer here, so I’ll go with Syracuse. They played a really solid game against LSU and “handled” Leonard Fournette. They’re playing with lots of guys injured, and they still look competitive. ACC teams should look out for Syracuse this year, especially their superstar punter [Riley Dixon] (http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/id/86192/dixonforheisman-campaign-reaches-new-heights).
  • Lenville (Louisville): The most impressive win was Duke beating GT but the most impressive team was Syracuse. They played LSU tough with a 5th string walk-on QB. The biggest difference in the game was the LSU starting RB, you may have heard of him. If Syracuse can keep Dungey healthy they can win 8-9 games this year.
  • Commander (Syracuse): The Duke win was impressive, but how about North Carolina switching QBs?  Who saw THAT coming?
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): Duke. I was not expecting them to beat Ga Tech.  (Ed. Note–why would any UNC fan expect Duke to have a good week?)
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): Ohio State, Ole Miss, TCU, Notre Dame/Clemson. TCU has jumped Baylor in the polls, so I’ll do the same with my playoff picture. OSU playsMichigan State, and I think they’ll beat them and knock MSU out. I think the winner of this weekend’s ND/Clemson game will have the inside track to the playoff.
  • Lenville (Louisville): I still like Ohio St, Notre Dame, Georgia & Oklahoma. I think TCU & Baylor will eventually lose & fade down the stretch. Michigan St, FSU, Clemson & UCLA are also contenders. Clemson hosts ND this weekend, this could prove to be an elimination game.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Right now?  Still going with 1. Michigan State; 2. Ole Miss; 3. Ohio State, and 4. Notre Dame.  Notre Dame/Clemson could change #4.  And one has to think that MSU and OSU will cancel each other out at some point.  And don’t overlook LSU.  If Fournette stays healthy… and they can pass the ball against secondaries that are better than Syracuse’s (i.e. all SEC teams)… then they might be the SEC representative in the playoffs.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): I am not comfortable with these choices but unlike last week I’ll name four (or five, you’ll see why in a second): Ohio State, Michigan State, TCU, and Clemson/Notre Dame. I still have questions about OSU, and I believe the winner of the Clemson/Notre Dame gets the nod for now. What I expect to happen is Ohio State bowing out to Michigan State later in the season which will allow some other teams to cause utter chaos at the top of the CFP rankings until the B10 Championship Game. I’m probably alone with that expectation.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
29 Sep 2015

The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: September 29, 2015

Here is this week’s Confidential Correspondents Football Poll!  Still hard to differentiate a lot of these teams… even at the bottom.

13-15. Wake Forest (2-2); Virginia (1-3), and Pitt (2-1)(0 points).  It may not be fair for these teams to be at the bottom, but it is what it is.  Wake Forest has two wins, but two losses against Syracuse (3-1) and Indiana (4-0).  Pitt beat Akron (who may go bowling this year) and an FCS foe, with a loss to Iowa.  Virginia, meanwhile, has an FCS win and losses to three very good programs in UCLA, Boise State, and Notre Dame.  What would Duke’s record be with that schedule?  Or North Carolina State.  But it is what it is.

11-12.  Louisville (1-3) and Virginia Tech (2-2) (3 points).  These schools got some love from the correspondents, but perhaps this is more based on history than present performance.  Virginia Tech lost to Ohio State, but also lost to East Carolina–and the win over hapless Purdue is not too impressive.  Meanwhile, Louisville has played 3 FBS teams and lost to them all.  The history says do not count these teams out, but for now they are outside the top 10.

9.  Boston College (3-1) and North Carolina (3-1) (7 points).  These two teams tied in the poll.  They each looked good against seemingly top foes (Florida State and South Carolina, respectfully).  They each have looked good against lesser foes.  They both have wins over good Illinois teams–Northern Illinois and Illinois, respectfully.  In fact, Northern Illinois may even be the better team.  In any event, these two teams are half-way to a bowl game with 2/3 the season remaining.

8.  Syracuse (3-1, 10 points).  Syracuse lost–but moved UP in this poll.  The win over Wake Forest and the overtime win over Central Michigan did not impress anyone, but going toe-to-toe with LSU with a 5th string, walk-on QB apparently did.  Syracuse now has a week to rest to prepare for South Florida.  However, how will Syracuse play on the road in Tampa and then the next week at Virginia.  If they can sweep–that would be great.  Get swept?  Well, it will be bottom 3 for Syracuse.  Nobody expects the Orange to beat Clemson or FSU, but they need to win the winnable games.

7.  Georgia Tech (2-2, 14 points).  The Yellow Jackets are reeling, with consecutive losses.  The triple option has not been effective lately, and without a running game there is no offense.  With North Carolina coming to town, they will need to put up points.

6.  North Carolina State (4-0, 17 points).  The cupcakes are eaten, now it is on to reality for NC State.  First up is a Louisville team that cannot afford any more losses in the division.  In fact, with Florida State looming, there are only so many losses that Louisville can suffer at all if they want to go bowling.  Which will prevail–desperation for a win (Louisville) or desperation for respect after a win (NC State)?

5. Duke (3-1, 23 points).  The loss to Northwestern was a disappointment, he Yellow Jackets had a great opportunity against Notre Dame, but fell short.  However, they can still take home the Coastal title.  It all begins this week with a trip to Duke.  With Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech looking good also, they will have to earn that particular title.  Next up?  @ Duke.

4. Miami (3-0, 28 points).  Miami has the nice win over Nebraska, but that is a bit questionable given Nebraska’s performance this year.  Up next is a midweek game against Cincinnati.  The Bearcats are a tough team to beat at home on a Thursday.  If Al Golden wants Miami to take the next step, they need to start winning these games.

3.  Florida State (3-0, 34 points).  Florida State looked pedestrian in beating Boston College.  Wake Forest is likely a step down from BC, but that has not stopped the Demon Deacons in the past.  Of course, in the two most recent contests, the Seminoles have destroyed them.  Can this Florida State team dominate for 60 minutes?

2. Notre Dame (4-0, 36 points, 2 first place votes).  Notre Dame won, but UMass was in the game for a bit longer than expected.  Now the Fighting Irish get to travel to Clemson and see what Death Valley is all about.  Notre Dame is getting a taste of what life might be like in the ACC permanently–with games at Florida State last year and Clemson this year.  Hopefully, we will see Notre Dame join full-time someday.

1. Clemson (3-0, 38 points, 2 first place vote).  Despite being idle, the Tigers have slightly more love from the Confidential correspondents.  With Notre Dame coming to town, this is a huge game for the Tigers and the ACC.  The winner will be talked about as a playoff team.

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
24 Sep 2015
1 Comment

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 3/4

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 3) and the Week that will be (Week 4) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Tell us what you think below.

1. What was most notable about your school’s performance in Week 3?

  • HHuntley (NC State): NC State is notorious for playing down to the level of their competition. This week we saw them play much better than a lesser Old Dominion team. That’s really encouraging to see moving forward.
  • Lenville (Louisville): This team has tenacity. The Cardinals are young & started the season with 2 ranked teams which proved to be to tough for their lack of experience. With 10 players drafted last season & another 16 graduated preseason expectations has proven to be to high. The Cards are off to an 0-3 start for the first time since 1984 but you have to give them credit for not filling the early schedule with cupcakes like most of the ACC has.
  • Commander/ACaffrey (Syracuse): The easy answer would be how good Eric Dungey was and how good the offense looked in the first half.  The most notable thing about the performance was the sheer level of coaching collapse in the second half.  Tim Lester called a great first half–24 points, including a TD drive with 4th and 5th string quarterbacks Austin Wilson and Zack Mahoney under center.  Then, in the second half, Lester did not get a first down with that same duo.  The play calling was odd, to say the least, but was saved by a nice 25-yard drive in overtime.  Meanwhile, Chuck Bullough’s defense was a sieve in the second half–allowing Central Michigan to move up and down the field.  Bullough was saved by his defense forcing two turnovers and making a great stop in overtime.  Meanwhile, Scott Shafer continues to show abysmal courage and clock management.  No need to continue debating, but you simply cannot call a timeout while the clock is running (15 seconds), your opponent has no timeouts, and they are 20+ yards from the end zone.  And, if you do, you better not let the one guy that has burned you all day score a relatively easy touchdown.  Egad.  The coaching staff as a whole was saved by its players.  For that, Syracuse deserves its 3-0 record.
  • Kevin (Louisville): Most notable was U of L holding Clemson to only 20 points despite having no running game and keeping their defense on the field all night
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): With a comparison to last year I think the most notable line was the defensive line. On the first drive of the game the Fighting Illini had them reeling, quickly moving down the field, but the defense stood up and denied them getting into the end zone.
2. What are you looking to see out of your school in Week 4?
  • HHuntley (NC State): I’m really just looking for more of the same. It’s a very similar situation as the Wolfpack travel to South Alabama. There’s a tendency for this to be a trap game with the weeknight game @ VT coming up.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Their first W. The Cards finally get a break with Samford. They need to use this game to gain confidence, find some team chemistry & jump start their offense. Finding a starting QB would be nice as well.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Look, as a homer, I truly think that Syracuse can beat L.S.U.  I would not bet money earmarked for necessities (or any money, for that matter) on it happening.  But I am excited to see this coaching staff rebound with a good game plan.  Our run defense will either be surprisingly good or surprisingly bad.  If the former, it might be a game.  Granted, with a 5th string, walk-on QB, it will be a long shot.  But that is why they play the games.  Cannot wait!
  • Kevin (Louisville): Looking to see the new changes on the OL as it has been rumored that 2/3 new guys will get a chance to play.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): What I really want to see is the unit as a whole do what they did against Illinois, control the lime of scrimmage, make smart plays, and be the better team they’re supposed to be on paper for the entire game. Even last year we struggled with putting away an FCS opponent early. That will also allow our depth chart to get some reps as we prepare for Georgia Tech.

3. Who impressed you the most in the ACC in Week 3?

  • HHuntley (NC State): Miami’s win over Nebraska sort of symbolizes their return. They’ve been struggling in games like that for years, so it’s nice to see them play that well. I hope they remain a contender this year.
  • Lenville (Louisville): Notre Dame was impressive over GT, I was picking GT as the ACC champ. ND controlled the game despite all of their injuries. Miami was impressive as well for the first 3 quarters. Miami is off to a 3-0 start & Kaaya looks to be one of the best QB’s in the ACC.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Boston College.  Once again, a Steve Addazio team went toe-to-toe with a blue blood and did not flinch.  Even with a QB injury, BC was still in it until the end–a defensive touchdown really making the difference.  Just look at what Addazio has done in big games

2013.  FSU went 14-0, outscoring opponents 723-170.  Of that 170, Boston College scored 34–the most of all teams–in a 48-34 loss.  Auburn (31) was the only other team to exceed 17 points against the Seminoles.  Clemson was 11-2 that year, beating Boston College 24-14.  It was the fewest points that Clemson scored in a win all year and the second narrowest margin of victory (Georgia, 3).

2014.  Boston College lost by 3 and 4 to Florida State and Clemson (while also beating a 9-4 Southern Cal, splitting the 2-year series).

2015.  Florida State narrowly wins, 14-0.

In five games against FSU and Clemson over the past three years, the average margin of loss was a mere 45 points–9 points per game–(7 PPG against Clemson and 10.3 PPG against FSU).  By comparison, FSU has beaten Clemson by an average of 21.5 points in 2 games over that span.  FSU has beaten NC State (23.5 points per game) and Syracuse (37 points per game) with far greater ease.  Clemson has beaten NC State (27.5 ppg) and Syracuse (22.5 ppg) much more handily than it has beaten B.C.  And let’s just ignore Wake Forest.  In any event, Steve Addazio is doing good things up at B.C. and is worthy of being considered for a job at an elite school.

  • Kevin (Louisville): Most impressed by Clemson – hard to beat a hungry UofL team on the road on a Thursday night.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): Notre Dame (since we’re including them here). I really thought with the loss of their starting QB that Georgia Tech would be able to upend them but that was not the case. Actually, with that triple option offense I thought they could have done it with or without ND’s starter.
4. If the playoffs started today, who would you vote in?  Who do you think will be there at season’s end?
  • HHuntley (NC State): 1. Ohio State 2. Ole Miss 3. Baylor 4. Clemson.Last year showed us how much the committee values conference champions. So I’m betting on the winners of the B1G, SEC, Big 12, and ACC. I think the Pac-12 is too competitive to put a team in the playoff this year. It looks like their champion might end up with 2 or 3 losses.
  • Lenville (Louisville): There are a lot of worthy candidates after 3 weeks but no one has looked dominant so far. As of today I would put Ohio St, ND, Ole Miss & TCU in but if I had to project to the end of the season I would put Ohio St, ND, Georgia & Oklahoma in. Should Clemson beat ND then I would swop them out. Watson should get stronger and the Tigers will finally win the ACC championship.
  • Commander (Syracuse): Right now?  1. Michigan State; 2. Ole Miss; 3. Ohio State, and 4. Notre Dame.  MSU and Ole Miss have two very good wins.  Ohio State was greatly helped by injury against Va Tech, but any undefeated reigning champion has to be in the top 4.  Has to.  And No. 4 is the toughest.  Does anyone else have an impressive win?  For now, we can put Notre Dame in there… they beat Texas and Georgia Tech.  No idea where this goes at season’s end.  Could it be the year that the S.E.C. gets left out?  If Clemson and one of TCU/Baylor run the table, perhaps.  The Pac-12 is vulnerable here too.
  • Kevin (Louisville): Ohio State, Michigan State, Ole Miss & Notre Dame.
  • UNC Tarheel Fan (UNC): Michigan State, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, and (gasp) Clemson. May be more of a wish list and really it is difficult to choose having so many undefeated teams with soft schedules and big upsets. I think you’re going to have quite a battle for two of those with FSU, Clemson, Oklahoma, LSU, Mississippi State, Georgia, TCU, and Baylor controlling their own fates. I think the Spartans take the Buckeyes out if someone doesn’t do it before then.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
23 Sep 2015
3 Comments

A Real “Targeting” Penalty

The objective football fan in you can decide just how severe the hit on Syracuse Quarterback Eric Dungey, by Central Michigan defender Mitch Stanitzek, was.  Stanitzek was given a targeting penalty and ejected.  That was also Dungey’s last play of the game, as he is injured.  Even worse, he is now likely to miss the upcoming game between Syracuse (3-0) and Louisiana State (3-0).  While Syracuse was a long shot to reach a bowl, much less go undefeated, the impact of the Dungey injury is that it is that much less likely that Syracuse can pull off the upset.  Needless to say, the cheap shot by Stanitzek has an impact on Dungey and Syracuse that goes beyond just the week 3 game.  Is a mere one-game ejection enough?  There is a good argument that such plays deserve a more serious penalty–a real “targeting” penalty.

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , , , ,
23 Sep 2015
4 Comments

The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: September 23, 2015

Here is this week’s Confidential Correspondents Football Poll!  Still hard to differentiate a lot of these teams… even at the bottom.

15.  Wake Forest (2-1, 0 points).  The Demon Deacons lose their QB, but find a way to win over Army.  Nobody thinks that Wake Forest is a top 10 ACC team though.  Maybe a win over Indiana will help a little?  Next up for Wake Forest?  Indiana.

14.  Pittsburgh (2-1, 2 points).  The Panthers almost beat Iowa on the road and drop in the standings?  Well that will happen at this point in the year.  Next up?  A bye.

12.  Boston College (2-1, 3 points) and Virginia (1-2, 3 points).  Boston College and Virginia have looked good in their defeats this year.  The wins, however, are exclusively against FCS teams–with BC’s being far more impressive.  Maybe it is the QB injury, but BC seems too low here.  Next up?  BC hosts Northern Illinois, while Virginia hosts Boise State.  Yikes.

11.  Duke (2-1, 5 points).  The Blue Devils were a great story the past few years, but the schedules have been favorable.  The loss to Northwestern shows that Duke may not be a fixture at the top of the Coastal.  These are games that division contenders must win–for themselves and for ACC statute.  Next up?  Georgia Tech.

10.  Louisville (0-3, 8 points).  Louisville has played a tough schedule so far.  But 0-3 is 0-3.  Kudos to the Correspondents for avoiding a knee-jerk reaction and placing the Cards at #15.  But is Louisville a top 10 team right now?  Not so sure.  Auburn looks pretty iffy.  Nor will a win this week alter that analysis much.  Next up: Samford.

9.  Syracuse (3-0, 9 points).  The Orange have used 4 Quarterbacks en route to 3 wins.  Granted, the schedule has not been daunting–but how many teams can say that?  The win streak certainly seems like to end this week with Louisiana State coming to town–but a healthy Eric Dungey for Syracuse might along be enough to send the Cuse bowling.  Next up?  LSU.

8.  Virginia Tech (2-1, 13 points).  The Hokies sole loss is to Ohio State–still #1 in the country.  Frank Beamer may not have a top 25 team, but Virginia Tech should not be counted out in the wide-open Coastal.  Next up? @ East Carolina.

7.  UNC (2-1, 14 points).  The Tar Heels took care of previously unbeaten Illinois, as expected.  Is this the year that UNC works its way into the Coastal title picture?  Marquise Williams could go a long way towards making that happen.  Next up?  Delaware.

6.  North Carolina State (3-0, 21 points).  North Carolina State seems entrenched in the #6 spot, #3 in the Atlantic.  The final cupcake on the OOC schedule is South Alabama–a road game.  A win here means that NC State can lose 6 of its last 8 games and go bowling.  That is an A.D. playing the game right.  Next up?  @ South Alabama.

5. Georgia Tech (2-1, 33 points).  The Yellow Jackets had a great opportunity against Notre Dame, but fell short.  However, they can still take home the Coastal title.  It all begins this week with a trip to Duke.  With Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech looking good also, they will have to earn that particular title.  Next up?  @ Duke.

4. Miami (3-0, 34 points).  Miami got the needed win over Nebraska to get halfway to a bowl.  Miami has had decent OOC wins in recent years.  The key for Al Golden is to have a good conference schedule–say 5 wins.  Anything less than 8 wins and one has to wonder if Al Golden can take the team to the next step.  One also has to wonder if Miami would look at Steve Addazio in that circumstance.  Next up?  Bye.

3.  Notre Dame (3-0, 39 points, 2 first place votes).  The Fighting Irish have withstood injuries to get to 3-0.  They have the depth and the talent to keep winning.  But they also need to avoid a collapse like last year.  Until then, the Correspondents are very split on whether to believe in Notre Dame.  Next up?  UMass.

2. Florida State (3-0, 44 points).  The Seminoles, again, merely looked OK against Boston College.  It is hard to get a read on FSU this year.  A win is a win though, and that is what Jimbo Fisher’s team has been doing lately.  The tests will keep on coming though.  Next up?  Bye.

1. Clemson (3-0, 47 points, 3 first place vote).  A win over a desperate Louisville team that always plays its best football on Thursdays was impressive.  Clemson should be gaining confidence that the team can beat Notre Dame and, in turn, really move up in the national rankings.  Next up?  Bye.

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
17 Sep 2015
4 Comments

The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: September 17, 2015

With ACC football on the slate today and tomorrow, now is a good time to release the Confidential’s Correspondents’ Poll for this week.  Note that few ACC teams have tested themselves yet, and the one that have have failed (UNC, Louisville, Virginia).  This makes the poll quite varied, with all 15 teams getting votes.  In any event, here is the poll results–working from last to first:

15.  Wake Forest (1-1, 1 point).  With a tough loss at Syracuse, it is hard to argue that Wake has a worst loss than Louisville’s home loss to Houston.  And Auburn is hardly looking like world-beaters.  Still, the correspondents have little to go on to put Wake Forest higher.  Next up for Wake Forest?  A trip back to NY to play Army.

14.  Louisville (0-2, 3 points).  Yeesh, 0-2 with Clemson coming to town?  Cardinals fans certainly were braced for 1-2 and hoping for better.  If they are 0-3, does the coaching seat get hot?

13.  Pittsburgh (2-0, 5 points).  Despite not having any losses, Pitt has lost its all-world running back and now has to face a difficult Iowa team.  Pat Narduzzi should know what he is up against after all those years in the Big 10 though.

12.  Virginia (0-2, 7 points).  Virginia is exactly where we thought they would be–0 and 2.  However, Virginia came “this close” to beating Notre Dame.  Unlike Louisville, Virginia plays William & Mary (and presumably several dozen other folks) this week.  A must-win obviously.

11.  North Carolina (1-1, 8 points).  An expected win and an expected loss.  With Illinois up next–the same Illinois team that fired its coach a week before the season, this is a game that the ACC (and UNC) needs to show that it can play with the Big 10.

10.  Virginia Tech (1-1, 15 points).  As we get to the top 10, we see a Hokies team that lost its QB, which eliminated any chance of beating Ohio State.  The win over Furman was nice, but it is just Furman.  A trip to Purdue–another lower level Big 10 team–will tell a lot more.

9.  Boston College (2-0, 17 points).  The Eagles have dominated its two FCS opponents, outscoring them 100-3.  That is obviously better than barely defeating them, much less losing.  Still, has this prepared BC for its next opponent in FSU?  Well, FSU has struggled to dispense with BC with better teams.  This will be a very interesting game to watch.

8.  Syracuse (2-0, 17 points, 1 first place vote).  The Orange get the #8 spot based on getting a first-place vote.  After all, Syracuse is the only team with a conference win.  The Orange have a must-win game this weekend against Central Michigan.  There is no room for upsets if Syracuse is to go bowling.

7.  Duke (2-0, 20 points).  The Blue Devils have not truly been tested yet.  That changes when a decent Northwestern team comes to town.  This is another very important game for the ACC to show it can play with the Big 10.  And for Duke to show that it is a program on the rise for the long-term.

6.  North Carolina State (2-0, 21 points).  North Carolina State has been repeatedly criticized for playing only cupcakes and that continues this week.  At least they travel to the next few cupcakes, with Old Dominion on the schedule this week.  3-0 is halfway to a bowl game.

5. Miami (2-0, 24 points).  The Hurricanes have been a perpetual disappointment in the ACC.  Miami has too much talent relative to its results.  If Al Golden can get the home win against Nebraska, then maybe some momentum can build for Miami to challenge for the Coastal spot in the playoffs.

4. Notre Dame (2-0, 33 points).  The Fighting Irish have beaten Texas and Virginia.  And now a very good Georgia Tech team comes to town.  Will ND get the QB play necessary to make a playoff run this year?  First things first–can ND’s defense stop Georgia Tech?

3.  Georgia Tech (2-0, 51 points, 1 first place vote).  The Yellow Jackets have not been tested yet, but will be in South Bend.  In fact, Georgia Tech has a challenging schedule moving forward.  This is where we learn if Georgia Tech will be nationally relevant or merely Coastally interesting.

2. Florida State (2-0, 53 points, 3 first place votes).  The Seminoles have looked OK.  Is that good enough?  The next two opponents–Boston College and Wake Forest–have been tricky opponents in recent years.  A win this week should not be discounted.

1. Clemson (2-0, 54 points, 1 first place vote).  The Tigers have a great QB.  The Tigers always have a good defense.  The schedule is tough though.  Louisville may be 0-2, but they are battle tested and a difficult opponent on Thursday nights at home.  Despite the Cardinals struggles, Clemson cannot be looking past the Cardinals to Notre Dame or Georgia Tech.  In fact, Louisville should be all the more desperate with their season on the line.  Should be a great game!

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , ,
10 Sep 2015
1 Comment

Syracuse, Scott Shafer, Quarterbacks, and Injuries

Everyone has heard of the Sports Illustrated jinx.  And then there is the Madden Curse, applicable to the cover player on the famous game produced by EA Sports.  And now we are in Year 3 of the Scott Shafer season starting QB jinx/curse.  Consider…

In 2013, Scott Shafer designated Drew Allen as the QB.  By Game 3, the QB was Terrel Hunt, who went on to lead Syracuse to seven wins, a bowl game victory, and anointing as the next great Syracuse QB.

In 2014, the aforementioned Hunt was ready to do big things for Syracuse.  However, he did not last until halftime of the opener, being ejected.  Later, he suffered a season-ending injury.  Along the way, several other QBs went under center for the Orange, including AJ Long.

In 2015, with Hunt returning, there was promise for the QB position at Syracuse.  Once again, however, Hunt did not last through the opener of a game against an FCS opponent–this time rupturing an achilles tendon.  Long was not there to step in, having suffered his own injury before the season started. Thus, Shafer turned to true freshman Eric Dungey.  Dungey led Syracuse to a victory and now has the starting QB nod.

That is three consecutive years where the August starter will not finish the season.  In 2013, it was ineffectiveness.  In 2014, it was injury–but trending towards ineffectiveness also.  In 2015, it was solely injury (although Hunt did not look good against Rhode Island either).

In any event, Dungey finished a second consecutive opener for Syracuse against an FCS opponent and now is the starter.  At least until he gets hurt, as most Syracuse fans who have lived through the past decade cannot help but think.

And why not?  The QB position has been very unsettled since Donovan McNabb left town after the 1998 season.  Look at the names of the QBs to get major playing time:

  • 2014: Hunt, Wilson, Long, Kimble
  • 2013: Allen, Hunt
  • 2012: Nassib (all but one QB pass attempt)
  • 2011: Nassib (all QB pass attempts)
  • 2010: Nassib (all but 5 QB pass attempts)
  • 2009: Paulus, Nassib
  • 2008: Dantley, Robinson
  • 2007: Robinson, Dantley
  • 2006: Patterson (all but 6 QB pass attempts)
  • 2005: Patterson, Fields
  • 2004: Fields, Patterson
  • 2003: Anderson
  • 2002: Nunes, Anderson
  • 2001: Nunes, Anderson
  • 2000: Nunes, Anderson
  • 1999: Nunes, Williams

The old saying of “having two quarterbacks means you have none” applies to several seasons.  The law firm of Nunes Anderson hovered around the .500 mark, but in subsequent seasons the instability of the position has led to several seasons with less than 5 wins.  Note that that 2010 to 2012 involved two bowl games and a period of stability/health involving Nassib.  Was Doug Marrone a good coach or just fortune to have a healthy, productive QB for three straight seasons?

Obviously, Syracuse needs Dungey to stay healthy.  That applies to all football teams on all levels.  But for Syracuse stability over a multiple-season stretch would be even better.  Of course, that just leads to the potential jinx/curse of having Dungey named the starter heading into 2016.  Yet another reason why it is tough to be a Syracuse football fan.  Sigh.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , , ,
28 Aug 2015
1 Comment

The 2015 Confidential Preseason ACC Football Poll

FOOTBALL IS BACK!   ACC FOOTBALL IS BACK!   It looks to be a promising year for the ACC, as many experienced quarterbacks return and there is significant coaching stability.  While Wake Forest and Virginia may be the long shots to get to bowl eligibility in each division, there is a significant regression to the mean with FSU losing Winston (among others) and everyone else improving.   In any event, with football here, it is time for the Confidential’s preseason football poll–with 5 Confidential correspondents participating.  Remember to join our individual player fantasy league and our survivor leagues… they are FREE, easy to play, and have CA$H prizes to the winners.  In any event, here is the first poll results, with links to the Confidential’s over/under for each school:

  1. Florida State (48 points, 3 first place votes).  The Seminoles have lost of a lot, but most people figure that they will stay on top.  Jimbo Fisher has reloaded, making it fairly likely.
  2. Clemson (45 points, 2 first place votes).  Quarterback is an essential position in football and Clemson has a dynamic one.  With studs at WR and a solid defense (despite some losses), Clemson has a legitimate claim to the division and conference title.
  3. Notre Dame (38 points).  The Fighting Irish are not sufficiently ACC to be eligible to win it, but they will be good.  Whether they are the 3rd best team of the 15 remains to be seen.  That is the preseason position though.
  4. Georgia Tech (36 points).  The Yellow Jackets may be ready to reclaim the Coastal.  Pitt is loaded at skill positions, Virginia Tech is always a threat, Miami is desperate for a return to greatness, and Duke/UNC want to be more than hoops schools.  We will see.
  5. Louisville (29 points).  The Cardinals are flying under the radar, which is probably how Bobby Petrino likes it.  Certainly not going to resign themselves to the perpetual #3 spot in the Atlantic.
  6. Virginia Tech (27 points).  Is this about name recognition or potential?  The Hokies have not been their typically football selves lately.
  7. NC State (14 points).  With such an easy schedule, it will be hard for NC State not to get to bowl eligibility.  Does that make them better than the schools below them in win totals?  Debatable.
  8. Miami (13 points).  If Miami had NC State’s schedule, perhaps the schools would flip-flop.  Then again, Miami finds new ways to disappoint ever year.  Still waiting for that first Coastal division championship…
  9. North Carolina (12 points).  With solid skill players, the real question is whether that defense can improve.  With new coaching blood on that side of the ball, time will tell.
  10. Boston College (5 points).  For the past two years, Boston College has gone toe-to-toe with Florida State, Clemson, and USC (winning too!).  Regardless of talent, good to see them in this final position in the poll.

Others: Pitt (3 points), Duke (3 points).  Syracuse, Virginia, and Wake Forest did not receive votes.

See the team pages for more analysis.  Welcome any criticism too…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Poll, Predictions, Top 10 and tagged , , , , ,

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